politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Irish General Election 2020 : Results & Review (Part Two : G –
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Irish General Election 2020 : Results & Review (Part Two : G – L Constituencies)
It has now been nearly a week since the Irish General Election took place on the 8th of February 2020 and we are still no further on to getting a Dáil government elected. It was pretty much a three way tie with Micheál Martin’s Fianna Fáil on 38 seats, Mary Lou McDonald’s Sinn Féin on 37 seats and Leo Varadkar’s Fine Gael on 35 seats. Who is going to be the next Taoiseach and which parties will form the coalition? We simply don’t know but what do know is the elected T.D’s, but who were they? Find out here.
Comments
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First.0
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Second like SF in seats0
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Third like Rebecca Wrong Daily.0
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FPT
Very good! She just couldn’t get the staff to compete, and nor can I.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Just a trickl-our of nominations for Emily?ydoethur said:
She has run up a white flag.isam said:
Incredible underperformance from her. She must be pretty unpopular. From the outside looking in she seemed the best by a mileSouthamObserver said:
She will be very cross.
Any other flag related puns out there?1 -
That election was such an epic Fáil. Varadkar almost ended up on the dole instead of the Dáil, and though he hope to reJoyce, he almost presided over Fine Gael's Wake. Meanwhile, the electorate decided that the third party was more Sinned against than Sinning...
I love puns.1 -
She poled badly.ydoethur said:FPT
Very good! She just couldn’t get the staff to compete, and nor can I.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Just a trickl-our of nominations for Emily?ydoethur said:
She has run up a white flag.isam said:
Incredible underperformance from her. She must be pretty unpopular. From the outside looking in she seemed the best by a mileSouthamObserver said:
She will be very cross.
Any other flag related puns out there?0 -
That post was sinnful rather than Féin.BluestBlue said:That election was such an epic Fáil. Varakdar almost ended up on the dole instead of the Dáil, and though he hope to reJoyce, he almost presided over Fine Gael's Wake. Meanwhile, the electorate decided that the third party was more Sinned against than Sinning...
I love puns.0 -
Keir Starmer 374 CLPs
Rebecca Long-Bailey 164
Lisa Nandy 72
Emily Thornberry 31
__
Angela Rayner 365
Dawn Butler 82
Richard Burgon 77
Ian Murray 60
Rosena Allin-Khan 560 -
Her campaign was a bit half marsed.tlg86 said:
She poled badly.ydoethur said:FPT
Very good! She just couldn’t get the staff to compete, and nor can I.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Just a trickl-our of nominations for Emily?ydoethur said:
She has run up a white flag.isam said:
Incredible underperformance from her. She must be pretty unpopular. From the outside looking in she seemed the best by a mileSouthamObserver said:
She will be very cross.
Any other flag related puns out there?0 -
Sorry for being so TD-ous. I'm still in Taoiseach over the results.ydoethur said:
That post was sinnful rather than Féin.BluestBlue said:That election was such an epic Fáil. Varakdar almost ended up on the dole instead of the Dáil, and though he hope to reJoyce, he almost presided over Fine Gael's Wake. Meanwhile, the electorate decided that the third party was more Sinned against than Sinning...
I love puns.1 -
Keep Calmer and Vote StarmerAndreaParma_82 said:Keir Starmer 374 CLPs
Rebecca Long-Bailey 164
Lisa Nandy 72
Emily Thornberry 31
__
Angela Rayner 365
Dawn Butler 82
Richard Burgon 77
Ian Murray 60
Rosena Allin-Khan 561 -
Don't know if this Rasmussen poll from a few days ago was posted. Interesting:
“Has the unsuccessful attempt to remove President Trump from office made him weaker or stronger politically?”
Weaker: 16%
Stronger: 55%
No Impact: 23%
Not Sure: 5%
"Even a plurality of self-described liberals (48%-44%) say impeachment made Trump stronger rather than weaker, as did Conservatives (71%-27%), Moderates (60%-29%), those Not Sure (41%-40%) of their political stance.
"What’s more – by a nearly two-to-one margin – voters want Democrats to stop trying to remove Trump from office and turn their attention to other issues."0 -
Rebecca Long Bailey has a veritable Everest to climb if these figures are in any way representative of the membership as a whole.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Keep Calmer and Vote StarmerAndreaParma_82 said:Keir Starmer 374 CLPs
Rebecca Long-Bailey 164
Lisa Nandy 72
Emily Thornberry 31
__
Angela Rayner 365
Dawn Butler 82
Richard Burgon 77
Ian Murray 60
Rosena Allin-Khan 560 -
Westminster Voting Intention:
CON: 48% (-1)
LAB: 28% (-2)
LDM: 10% (+2)
GRN: 6% (+1)
BXP: 2% (=)
Via @YouGov, 8-10 Feb.
Changes w/ 31 Jan-2 Feb.3 -
Well it seems despite Michael Martin's assurances there will be no FF-SF coalition he is prepared to talk to Mary Lou MacDonald so we'll see where that takes us.
With FG and Labour seemingly not wanting to play the chances of anything approaching a stable majority look slim but the maths mean none of the three big players can realistically govern without the tacit support of one of the other two.
Oceania is at war with Eurasia - it has always been at war with Eurasia.0 -
It's barely two months since the election and we've had Christmas and New Year in between so little surprise to see no substantial movement and the Johnson Honeymoon continues for now.Big_G_NorthWales said:Westminster Voting Intention:
CON: 48% (-1)
LAB: 28% (-2)
LDM: 10% (+2)
GRN: 6% (+1)
BXP: 2% (=)
Via @YouGov, 8-10 Feb.
Changes w/ 31 Jan-2 Feb.
There is a thought any Government should do the unpopular things first and get them out of the way because a) people won't notice and b) people don't care so soon after an election.
I suspect the Honeymoon will continue for a while yet but it will end at some point and when it does it may well be dramatic and it may caused by something entirely outside the Government's control.
Who would have predicted an Argentinean invasion of the Falklands back in July 1979 and who would have predicted the shocking events of September 11th back in July of 2001.
Events, dear boy, events - as someone once said.0 -
Indeedstodge said:
It's barely two months since the election and we've had Christmas and New Year in between so little surprise to see no substantial movement and the Johnson Honeymoon continues for now.Big_G_NorthWales said:Westminster Voting Intention:
CON: 48% (-1)
LAB: 28% (-2)
LDM: 10% (+2)
GRN: 6% (+1)
BXP: 2% (=)
Via @YouGov, 8-10 Feb.
Changes w/ 31 Jan-2 Feb.
There is a thought any Government should do the unpopular things first and get them out of the way because a) people won't notice and b) people don't care so soon after an election.
I suspect the Honeymoon will continue for a while yet but it will end at some point and when it does it may well be dramatic and it may caused by something entirely outside the Government's control.
Who would have predicted an Argentinean invasion of the Falklands back in July 1979 and who would have predicted the shocking events of September 11th back in July of 2001.
Events, dear boy, events - as someone once said.0 -
Unless one of the parties goes back on its word it looks very hard to avoid a second election. The Blueshirts wont touch SF with a 40 foot pole. Martin might personally stomach an arrangement with SF to become Taoiseach but it would split FF in two so it isn't a goer at this time. A FF/FG/Green grand coalition would be stable but all three parties would be torn to shreds at the subsequent election. FF and FG might be tempted to let SF form a minority left coalition they could block/bring down at any time but McDonald is hardly likely to fall into that trap.
The political culture of RoI is very different from NI or GB. The relative success of the 2010-15 Con/Lib Dem coalition could have changed things but the experience of the 2017-19 Parliament has I believe killed any appetite among the public for electoral reform or desire to risk minority governments becoming a regular feature at Westminster. Unless Labour recover in Scotland the Tories can and will continue to successfully use the Lab/SNP/Lib Dem "Coalition of Chaos" line of attack.0 -
Macmillan, allegedly...stodge said:
It's barely two months since the election and we've had Christmas and New Year in between so little surprise to see no substantial movement and the Johnson Honeymoon continues for now.Big_G_NorthWales said:Westminster Voting Intention:
CON: 48% (-1)
LAB: 28% (-2)
LDM: 10% (+2)
GRN: 6% (+1)
BXP: 2% (=)
Via @YouGov, 8-10 Feb.
Changes w/ 31 Jan-2 Feb.
There is a thought any Government should do the unpopular things first and get them out of the way because a) people won't notice and b) people don't care so soon after an election.
I suspect the Honeymoon will continue for a while yet but it will end at some point and when it does it may well be dramatic and it may caused by something entirely outside the Government's control.
Who would have predicted an Argentinean invasion of the Falklands back in July 1979 and who would have predicted the shocking events of September 11th back in July of 2001.
Events, dear boy, events - as someone once said.0 -
You've gotta love Bradford West!AndreaParma_82 said:And Bradford West had their nomination ruled invalid because they can't properly run a meeting following the rules and they didn't meet again.
SouthamObserver said:
https://twitter.com/clpnominations/status/1228419180447354883?s=21Pro_Rata said:
Which 5 CLPs failed to nominate for leader?SouthamObserver said:Two CLPs left to nominate. Thornberry needs them both.
https://twitter.com/clpnominations/status/1228422773577519104?s=21
(There were 17 left as of this morning, and only 10 plus a number of affiliates have nominated today afaict)
Second question: is Cardiff running a joint meeting? Could mean a bloc Thornberry vote - think Blackpool or local went that path - OK, obviously not quite that now I've read it again.
Honestly, I'm slightly disappointed Thornberry hasn't made it, getting her on the ballot didn't present anything like the additional moral hazard to Labour that putting Corbyn on ultimately represented, either in terms of her policies being way off those of the other candidates nor in her having any real chance of making an impact on the result. Instead, she could have added a bit of grit to the oyster of this leadership election and made others raise their game by being a capable candidate with little to lose.
That in itself would have been worthwhile.
So, the remaining field. Corbyn has moved the Labour Overton window in that every single candidate is somewhat more left wing than you actually think they are. I've no great problem with that - I've said before that, even as someone with deeply centrist instincts, the challenges facing us in 2020 are much more societal than they ever were in 1997, and the policy areas where fundamental rethink is needed - e.g. housing, care, proper regulation - are much more ripe for selective radicalism than the 'public services' challenges that faced Blair.0 -
1982 I think, though July 1979 was also quite exhilerating.stodge said:
It's barely two months since the election and we've had Christmas and New Year in between so little surprise to see no substantial movement and the Johnson Honeymoon continues for now.Big_G_NorthWales said:Westminster Voting Intention:
CON: 48% (-1)
LAB: 28% (-2)
LDM: 10% (+2)
GRN: 6% (+1)
BXP: 2% (=)
Via @YouGov, 8-10 Feb.
Changes w/ 31 Jan-2 Feb.
There is a thought any Government should do the unpopular things first and get them out of the way because a) people won't notice and b) people don't care so soon after an election.
I suspect the Honeymoon will continue for a while yet but it will end at some point and when it does it may well be dramatic and it may caused by something entirely outside the Government's control.
Who would have predicted an Argentinean invasion of the Falklands back in July 1979 and who would have predicted the shocking events of September 11th back in July of 2001.
Events, dear boy, events - as someone once said.
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Very unlikely the Greens would poll 6% in reality. Fieldwork dates also precedes the shenanigans of this week.stodge said:
It's barely two months since the election and we've had Christmas and New Year in between so little surprise to see no substantial movement and the Johnson Honeymoon continues for now.Big_G_NorthWales said:Westminster Voting Intention:
CON: 48% (-1)
LAB: 28% (-2)
LDM: 10% (+2)
GRN: 6% (+1)
BXP: 2% (=)
Via @YouGov, 8-10 Feb.
Changes w/ 31 Jan-2 Feb.
There is a thought any Government should do the unpopular things first and get them out of the way because a) people won't notice and b) people don't care so soon after an election.
I suspect the Honeymoon will continue for a while yet but it will end at some point and when it does it may well be dramatic and it may caused by something entirely outside the Government's control.
Who would have predicted an Argentinean invasion of the Falklands back in July 1979 and who would have predicted the shocking events of September 11th back in July of 2001.
Events, dear boy, events - as someone once said.0 -
Like Fianna Fáil.tlg86 said:First.
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If Manchester City get a Premier League points deduction will that apply for this season or next season?
I think if it happens it should apply from next season - we're already too far into this season and it will either be a meaningless sanction, or it will be an announced deduction which hands Liverpool the title and that shouldn't happen!0 -
The only way F.F won is because the automatic re-elected Ceann Comhairle.Sunil_Prasannan said:Second like SF in seats
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SF, FF, FG, and Irish Labour are all descended from, or merged with elements descended from, the original SF of 1905.stodge said:Well it seems despite Michael Martin's assurances there will be no FF-SF coalition he is prepared to talk to Mary Lou MacDonald so we'll see where that takes us.
With FG and Labour seemingly not wanting to play the chances of anything approaching a stable majority look slim but the maths mean none of the three big players can realistically govern without the tacit support of one of the other two.
Oceania is at war with Eurasia - it has always been at war with Eurasia.
SF, well, duh!
FF are the pro-constitutionalist wing of SF led by De Valera to break away from his own party in 1926
FG are descended from the pro-Treaty faction of SF that broke away in 1922-23.
Irish Labour merged with Democratic Left in 1999, which broke away from the Workers' Party in 1992, which used to be called Official Sinn Fein until 1982, which split from the Provos (today's SF) in 1970.0 -
Green Party getting into the Dáil. That's nice for them.BluestBlue said:That election was such an epic Fáil. Varadkar almost ended up on the dole instead of the Dáil, and though he hope to reJoyce, he almost presided over Fine Gael's Wake. Meanwhile, the electorate decided that the third party was more Sinned against than Sinning...
I love puns.0 -
Thank you for the update.AndreaParma_82 said:Keir Starmer 374 CLPs
Rebecca Long-Bailey 164
Lisa Nandy 72
Emily Thornberry 31
__
Angela Rayner 365
Dawn Butler 82
Richard Burgon 77
Ian Murray 60
Rosena Allin-Khan 560 -
Good man, lol.BluestBlue said:
Sorry for being so TD-ous. I'm still in Taoiseach over the results.ydoethur said:
That post was sinnful rather than Féin.BluestBlue said:That election was such an epic Fáil. Varakdar almost ended up on the dole instead of the Dáil, and though he hope to reJoyce, he almost presided over Fine Gael's Wake. Meanwhile, the electorate decided that the third party was more Sinned against than Sinning...
I love puns.0 -
No, he means who would have predicted in July 1979...geoffw said:
1982 I think, though July 1979 was also quite exhilerating.stodge said:
It's barely two months since the election and we've had Christmas and New Year in between so little surprise to see no substantial movement and the Johnson Honeymoon continues for now.Big_G_NorthWales said:Westminster Voting Intention:
CON: 48% (-1)
LAB: 28% (-2)
LDM: 10% (+2)
GRN: 6% (+1)
BXP: 2% (=)
Via @YouGov, 8-10 Feb.
Changes w/ 31 Jan-2 Feb.
There is a thought any Government should do the unpopular things first and get them out of the way because a) people won't notice and b) people don't care so soon after an election.
I suspect the Honeymoon will continue for a while yet but it will end at some point and when it does it may well be dramatic and it may caused by something entirely outside the Government's control.
Who would have predicted an Argentinean invasion of the Falklands back in July 1979 and who would have predicted the shocking events of September 11th back in July of 2001.
Events, dear boy, events - as someone once said.0 -
I don't see much point in another election. 2-5 for no election might be handy with powers.stodge said:Well it seems despite Michael Martin's assurances there will be no FF-SF coalition he is prepared to talk to Mary Lou MacDonald so we'll see where that takes us.
With FG and Labour seemingly not wanting to play the chances of anything approaching a stable majority look slim but the maths mean none of the three big players can realistically govern without the tacit support of one of the other two.
Oceania is at war with Eurasia - it has always been at war with Eurasia.0 -
Thinking about the US election, I think the current mess is a good thing.
You see, the most likely consequence of the rise of Bloomberg is that Sanders becomes the nominee. Simply, he fractures the moderate vote, and allows Sanders to get a plurality of the delegates.
But Sanders being the nominee all but guarantees Trump the election. Sanders wants to remove all private healthcare in the US. This is probably the biggest single vote destroyer in the history of America. It pretty much ensures Trump wins reelection. (Removing private healthcare is an unpopular policy even among Democrats.)
But this is actually all for the good.
You see, Trump has engaged in a series of policies best described as Heathian. Like Heath and his Chancellor Anthony Barber, he's cutting taxes and increasing spending. Now, capital flowing into the US from abroad has allowed this to work for now. But it will not continue indefinitely. And it's right and proper and just that President Trump is President when the shit hits the fan.
So, Sanders gets defeated, which tells the Democrats you can't have a loony socialist as nominee, and they hopefully get it out of their system,
And a policy of massive fiscal deficits is shown up for what it is: a really bad idea. And so the Republicans become the party of sound money and good public finances again.0 -
I realised that when responding, but enjoyed the ambiguity. Ergo stet.IshmaelZ said:
No, he means who would have predicted in July 1979...geoffw said:
1982 I think, though July 1979 was also quite exhilerating.stodge said:
It's barely two months since the election and we've had Christmas and New Year in between so little surprise to see no substantial movement and the Johnson Honeymoon continues for now.Big_G_NorthWales said:Westminster Voting Intention:
CON: 48% (-1)
LAB: 28% (-2)
LDM: 10% (+2)
GRN: 6% (+1)
BXP: 2% (=)
Via @YouGov, 8-10 Feb.
Changes w/ 31 Jan-2 Feb.
There is a thought any Government should do the unpopular things first and get them out of the way because a) people won't notice and b) people don't care so soon after an election.
I suspect the Honeymoon will continue for a while yet but it will end at some point and when it does it may well be dramatic and it may caused by something entirely outside the Government's control.
Who would have predicted an Argentinean invasion of the Falklands back in July 1979 and who would have predicted the shocking events of September 11th back in July of 2001.
Events, dear boy, events - as someone once said.
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FF/FG/GP or Independents.dodrade said:Unless one of the parties goes back on its word it looks very hard to avoid a second election. The Blueshirts wont touch SF with a 40 foot pole. Martin might personally stomach an arrangement with SF to become Taoiseach but it would split FF in two so it isn't a goer at this time. A FF/FG/Green grand coalition would be stable but all three parties would be torn to shreds at the subsequent election. FF and FG might be tempted to let SF form a minority left coalition they could block/bring down at any time but McDonald is hardly likely to fall into that trap.
The political culture of RoI is very different from NI or GB. The relative success of the 2010-15 Con/Lib Dem coalition could have changed things but the experience of the 2017-19 Parliament has I believe killed any appetite among the public for electoral reform or desire to risk minority governments becoming a regular feature at Westminster. Unless Labour recover in Scotland the Tories can and will continue to successfully use the Lab/SNP/Lib Dem "Coalition of Chaos" line of attack.1 -
I see Quinnipiac actually has Sanders leading Trump 51 - 43 . Whilst that might well not hold up, it does not appear to point to an inevitable Trump landslide.rcs1000 said:Thinking about the US election, I think the current mess is a good thing.
You see, the most likely consequence of the rise of Bloomberg is that Sanders becomes the nominee. Simply, he fractures the moderate vote, and allows Sanders to get a plurality of the delegates.
But Sanders being the nominee all but guarantees Trump the election. Sanders wants to remove all private healthcare in the US. This is probably the biggest single vote destroyer in the history of America. It pretty much ensures Trump wins reelection. (Removing private healthcare is an unpopular policy even among Democrats.)
But this is actually all for the good.
You see, Trump has engaged in a series of policies best described as Heathian. Like Heath and his Chancellor Anthony Barber, he's cutting taxes and increasing spending. Now, capital flowing into the US from abroad has allowed this to work for now. But it will not continue indefinitely. And it's right and proper and just that President Trump is President when the shit hits the fan.
So, Sanders gets defeated, which tells the Democrats you can't have a loony socialist as nominee, and they hopefully get it out of their system,
And a policy of massive fiscal deficits is shown up for what it is: a really bad idea. And so the Republicans become the party of sound money and good public finances again.1 -
@Cyclefree's offspring's mumps travails reported on the 10pm News. Well not his specifically, but the generality atm.0
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FPT That's a shame that Thornberry fell one short. She missed Surrey SW's nomination by the smallest poosible margin - tied on the final ballot, won by Starmer because he had ONE more 1st preference vote. I voted Starmer but if I'd known it was that close I'd have given Thornberry a shot.1
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Still can't get to 50%. The Tories are finished.Big_G_NorthWales said:Westminster Voting Intention:
CON: 48% (-1)
LAB: 28% (-2)
LDM: 10% (+2)
GRN: 6% (+1)
BXP: 2% (=)
Via @YouGov, 8-10 Feb.
Changes w/ 31 Jan-2 Feb.2 -
I think she was two short.NickPalmer said:FPT That's a shame that Thornberry fell one short. She missed Surrey SW's nomination by the smallest poosible margin - tied on the final ballot, won by Starmer because he had ONE more 1st preference vote. I voted Starmer but if I'd known it was that close I'd have given Thornberry a shot.
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That's because most Americans don't know Sanders' policies.justin124 said:
I see Quinnipiac actually has Sanders leading Trump 51 - 43 . Whilst that might well not hold up, it does not appear to point to an inevitable Trump landslide.rcs1000 said:Thinking about the US election, I think the current mess is a good thing.
You see, the most likely consequence of the rise of Bloomberg is that Sanders becomes the nominee. Simply, he fractures the moderate vote, and allows Sanders to get a plurality of the delegates.
But Sanders being the nominee all but guarantees Trump the election. Sanders wants to remove all private healthcare in the US. This is probably the biggest single vote destroyer in the history of America. It pretty much ensures Trump wins reelection. (Removing private healthcare is an unpopular policy even among Democrats.)
But this is actually all for the good.
You see, Trump has engaged in a series of policies best described as Heathian. Like Heath and his Chancellor Anthony Barber, he's cutting taxes and increasing spending. Now, capital flowing into the US from abroad has allowed this to work for now. But it will not continue indefinitely. And it's right and proper and just that President Trump is President when the shit hits the fan.
So, Sanders gets defeated, which tells the Democrats you can't have a loony socialist as nominee, and they hopefully get it out of their system,
And a policy of massive fiscal deficits is shown up for what it is: a really bad idea. And so the Republicans become the party of sound money and good public finances again.
0 -
Blair's polling position was much stronger in 1997/1998.eadric said:
Boris has amazing stocks of political capital.Big_G_NorthWales said:Westminster Voting Intention:
CON: 48% (-1)
LAB: 28% (-2)
LDM: 10% (+2)
GRN: 6% (+1)
BXP: 2% (=)
Via @YouGov, 8-10 Feb.
Changes w/ 31 Jan-2 Feb.
He needs to spend some ASAP. Extend LHR. Approve HS2 (done). Neutralise Number 11 (done). Withdraw from the ECHR (coming). Destroy the Blob. Reorder the BBC. Overthrow academe. Neutralise the judges.
Boris is so powerful right now he makes Blair, in his pomp, look like Theresa May.
This will not last. Use that power NOW, Boris.0 -
Boris is not Blair... and the media today are as not easily played and supine as they were then. They really did behave as if Blair was the political wing of the British people.justin124 said:
Blair's polling position was much stronger in 1997/1998.eadric said:
Boris has amazing stocks of political capital.Big_G_NorthWales said:Westminster Voting Intention:
CON: 48% (-1)
LAB: 28% (-2)
LDM: 10% (+2)
GRN: 6% (+1)
BXP: 2% (=)
Via @YouGov, 8-10 Feb.
Changes w/ 31 Jan-2 Feb.
He needs to spend some ASAP. Extend LHR. Approve HS2 (done). Neutralise Number 11 (done). Withdraw from the ECHR (coming). Destroy the Blob. Reorder the BBC. Overthrow academe. Neutralise the judges.
Boris is so powerful right now he makes Blair, in his pomp, look like Theresa May.
This will not last. Use that power NOW, Boris.0 -
And labour traduce Blairjustin124 said:
Blair's polling position was much stronger in 1997/1998.eadric said:
Boris has amazing stocks of political capital.Big_G_NorthWales said:Westminster Voting Intention:
CON: 48% (-1)
LAB: 28% (-2)
LDM: 10% (+2)
GRN: 6% (+1)
BXP: 2% (=)
Via @YouGov, 8-10 Feb.
Changes w/ 31 Jan-2 Feb.
He needs to spend some ASAP. Extend LHR. Approve HS2 (done). Neutralise Number 11 (done). Withdraw from the ECHR (coming). Destroy the Blob. Reorder the BBC. Overthrow academe. Neutralise the judges.
Boris is so powerful right now he makes Blair, in his pomp, look like Theresa May.
This will not last. Use that power NOW, Boris.0 -
I disagree - half the country views him with contempt.eadric said:
But Boris has the moral authority of a won and done Brexit referendum behind him (and he is also devoid of any rival, unlike Blair with Brown)justin124 said:
Blair's polling position was much stronger in 1997/1998.eadric said:
Boris has amazing stocks of political capital.Big_G_NorthWales said:Westminster Voting Intention:
CON: 48% (-1)
LAB: 28% (-2)
LDM: 10% (+2)
GRN: 6% (+1)
BXP: 2% (=)
Via @YouGov, 8-10 Feb.
Changes w/ 31 Jan-2 Feb.
He needs to spend some ASAP. Extend LHR. Approve HS2 (done). Neutralise Number 11 (done). Withdraw from the ECHR (coming). Destroy the Blob. Reorder the BBC. Overthrow academe. Neutralise the judges.
Boris is so powerful right now he makes Blair, in his pomp, look like Theresa May.
This will not last. Use that power NOW, Boris.
My estimate is that Boris now has more relative, effective power than any prime minister since the victorious Thatcher in 1983, post Falklands. And she then changed the country.0 -
Any parents who deliberately don't vaccinate their kids who are healthy and able to be vaccinated should be branded with a red hot poker.geoffw said:@Cyclefree's offspring's mumps travails reported on the 10pm News. Well not his specifically, but the generality atm.
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He still has enormous power for the next five yearsjustin124 said:
I disagree - half the country views him with contempt.eadric said:
But Boris has the moral authority of a won and done Brexit referendum behind him (and he is also devoid of any rival, unlike Blair with Brown)justin124 said:
Blair's polling position was much stronger in 1997/1998.eadric said:
Boris has amazing stocks of political capital.Big_G_NorthWales said:Westminster Voting Intention:
CON: 48% (-1)
LAB: 28% (-2)
LDM: 10% (+2)
GRN: 6% (+1)
BXP: 2% (=)
Via @YouGov, 8-10 Feb.
Changes w/ 31 Jan-2 Feb.
He needs to spend some ASAP. Extend LHR. Approve HS2 (done). Neutralise Number 11 (done). Withdraw from the ECHR (coming). Destroy the Blob. Reorder the BBC. Overthrow academe. Neutralise the judges.
Boris is so powerful right now he makes Blair, in his pomp, look like Theresa May.
This will not last. Use that power NOW, Boris.
My estimate is that Boris now has more relative, effective power than any prime minister since the victorious Thatcher in 1983, post Falklands. And she then changed the country.0 -
[Citation Needed]justin124 said:
I disagree - half the country views him with contempt.eadric said:
But Boris has the moral authority of a won and done Brexit referendum behind him (and he is also devoid of any rival, unlike Blair with Brown)justin124 said:
Blair's polling position was much stronger in 1997/1998.eadric said:
Boris has amazing stocks of political capital.Big_G_NorthWales said:Westminster Voting Intention:
CON: 48% (-1)
LAB: 28% (-2)
LDM: 10% (+2)
GRN: 6% (+1)
BXP: 2% (=)
Via @YouGov, 8-10 Feb.
Changes w/ 31 Jan-2 Feb.
He needs to spend some ASAP. Extend LHR. Approve HS2 (done). Neutralise Number 11 (done). Withdraw from the ECHR (coming). Destroy the Blob. Reorder the BBC. Overthrow academe. Neutralise the judges.
Boris is so powerful right now he makes Blair, in his pomp, look like Theresa May.
This will not last. Use that power NOW, Boris.
My estimate is that Boris now has more relative, effective power than any prime minister since the victorious Thatcher in 1983, post Falklands. And she then changed the country.
Not seen evidence for that.0 -
I think that's true.eadric said:
But Boris has the moral authority of a won and done Brexit referendum behind him (and he is also devoid of any rival, unlike Blair with Brown)justin124 said:
Blair's polling position was much stronger in 1997/1998.eadric said:
Boris has amazing stocks of political capital.Big_G_NorthWales said:Westminster Voting Intention:
CON: 48% (-1)
LAB: 28% (-2)
LDM: 10% (+2)
GRN: 6% (+1)
BXP: 2% (=)
Via @YouGov, 8-10 Feb.
Changes w/ 31 Jan-2 Feb.
He needs to spend some ASAP. Extend LHR. Approve HS2 (done). Neutralise Number 11 (done). Withdraw from the ECHR (coming). Destroy the Blob. Reorder the BBC. Overthrow academe. Neutralise the judges.
Boris is so powerful right now he makes Blair, in his pomp, look like Theresa May.
This will not last. Use that power NOW, Boris.
My estimate is that Boris now has more relative, effective power than any prime minister since the victorious Thatcher in 1983, post Falklands. And she then changed the country.
But I also think that he has relatively little time to do what he wants to do.
Right now, there is no effective opposition, at all. And he's just got Brexit done.
But the real governing starts here.0 -
Does it matter? If it was supplied you would either ignore it or deny it...Philip_Thompson said:
[Citation Needed]justin124 said:
I disagree - half the country views him with contempt.eadric said:
But Boris has the moral authority of a won and done Brexit referendum behind him (and he is also devoid of any rival, unlike Blair with Brown)justin124 said:
Blair's polling position was much stronger in 1997/1998.eadric said:
Boris has amazing stocks of political capital.Big_G_NorthWales said:Westminster Voting Intention:
CON: 48% (-1)
LAB: 28% (-2)
LDM: 10% (+2)
GRN: 6% (+1)
BXP: 2% (=)
Via @YouGov, 8-10 Feb.
Changes w/ 31 Jan-2 Feb.
He needs to spend some ASAP. Extend LHR. Approve HS2 (done). Neutralise Number 11 (done). Withdraw from the ECHR (coming). Destroy the Blob. Reorder the BBC. Overthrow academe. Neutralise the judges.
Boris is so powerful right now he makes Blair, in his pomp, look like Theresa May.
This will not last. Use that power NOW, Boris.
My estimate is that Boris now has more relative, effective power than any prime minister since the victorious Thatcher in 1983, post Falklands. And she then changed the country.
Not seen evidence for that.0 -
I agree we are probably at - or now just beyond - peak Johnson. But he is nothing like as popular as May was in Spring 2017 - or Blair throughout his entire first term - or Wilson post-1966 election victory. Macmillan was also much more popular in 1959/1960.eadric said:
No, they don't. Maybe 10% furiously loathe him, and 20% dislike him.justin124 said:
I disagree - half the country views him with contempt.eadric said:
But Boris has the moral authority of a won and done Brexit referendum behind him (and he is also devoid of any rival, unlike Blair with Brown)justin124 said:
Blair's polling position was much stronger in 1997/1998.eadric said:
Boris has amazing stocks of political capital.Big_G_NorthWales said:Westminster Voting Intention:
CON: 48% (-1)
LAB: 28% (-2)
LDM: 10% (+2)
GRN: 6% (+1)
BXP: 2% (=)
Via @YouGov, 8-10 Feb.
Changes w/ 31 Jan-2 Feb.
He needs to spend some ASAP. Extend LHR. Approve HS2 (done). Neutralise Number 11 (done). Withdraw from the ECHR (coming). Destroy the Blob. Reorder the BBC. Overthrow academe. Neutralise the judges.
Boris is so powerful right now he makes Blair, in his pomp, look like Theresa May.
This will not last. Use that power NOW, Boris.
My estimate is that Boris now has more relative, effective power than any prime minister since the victorious Thatcher in 1983, post Falklands. And she then changed the country.0 -
According to Mori Labour will only stay on 28% if they pick Long Bailey, if they pick Starmer as leader 35% say they are likely to vote Labour so the polling will probably tighten up by spring assuming Starmer wins the Labour leadershipBig_G_NorthWales said:Westminster Voting Intention:
CON: 48% (-1)
LAB: 28% (-2)
LDM: 10% (+2)
GRN: 6% (+1)
BXP: 2% (=)
Via @YouGov, 8-10 Feb.
Changes w/ 31 Jan-2 Feb.
https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/ipsos-mori-political-monitor-attitudes-labour-leadership-candidates0 -
Maybe - we shall seeHYUFD said:
According to Mori Labour will only stay on 28% if they pick Long Bailey, if they pick Starmer as leader 35% say they are likely to vote Labour so the polling will probab8y tighten up by spring assuming Starmer wins the Labour leadershipBig_G_NorthWales said:Westminster Voting Intention:
CON: 48% (-1)
LAB: 28% (-2)
LDM: 10% (+2)
GRN: 6% (+1)
BXP: 2% (=)
Via @YouGov, 8-10 Feb.
Changes w/ 31 Jan-2 Feb.
https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/ipsos-mori-political-monitor-attitudes-labour-leadership-candidates0 -
Momentum is what Boris has. He hit the ground running and is keeping that momentum. Let's hope he doesn't flag (no vexillological puns, please).rcs1000 said:
I think that's true.eadric said:
But Boris has the moral authority of a won and done Brexit referendum behind him (and he is also devoid of any rival, unlike Blair with Brown)justin124 said:
Blair's polling position was much stronger in 1997/1998.eadric said:
Boris has amazing stocks of political capital.Big_G_NorthWales said:Westminster Voting Intention:
CON: 48% (-1)
LAB: 28% (-2)
LDM: 10% (+2)
GRN: 6% (+1)
BXP: 2% (=)
Via @YouGov, 8-10 Feb.
Changes w/ 31 Jan-2 Feb.
He needs to spend some ASAP. Extend LHR. Approve HS2 (done). Neutralise Number 11 (done). Withdraw from the ECHR (coming). Destroy the Blob. Reorder the BBC. Overthrow academe. Neutralise the judges.
Boris is so powerful right now he makes Blair, in his pomp, look like Theresa May.
This will not last. Use that power NOW, Boris.
My estimate is that Boris now has more relative, effective power than any prime minister since the victorious Thatcher in 1983, post Falklands. And she then changed the country.
But I also think that he has relatively little time to do what he wants to do.
Right now, there is no effective opposition, at all. And he's just got Brexit done.
But the real governing starts here.
0 -
The mainstream media are a lot weaker now than they were in 1997, what would have been career ending stories 25 years ago bounce off Boris and Trump on a regular basis. Cummings knows this better than anyone and treats the press accordingly hence their hatred of him.northernpowerhouse2 said:
Boris is not Blair... and the media today are as not easily played and supine as they were then. They really did behave as if Blair was the political wing of the British people.justin124 said:
Blair's polling position was much stronger in 1997/1998.eadric said:
Boris has amazing stocks of political capital.Big_G_NorthWales said:Westminster Voting Intention:
CON: 48% (-1)
LAB: 28% (-2)
LDM: 10% (+2)
GRN: 6% (+1)
BXP: 2% (=)
Via @YouGov, 8-10 Feb.
Changes w/ 31 Jan-2 Feb.
He needs to spend some ASAP. Extend LHR. Approve HS2 (done). Neutralise Number 11 (done). Withdraw from the ECHR (coming). Destroy the Blob. Reorder the BBC. Overthrow academe. Neutralise the judges.
Boris is so powerful right now he makes Blair, in his pomp, look like Theresa May.
This will not last. Use that power NOW, Boris.0 -
Andrew Wakefield should be in prison for all the harm he has done. There are children who have died as a result of his actions.Philip_Thompson said:
Any parents who deliberately don't vaccinate their kids who are healthy and able to be vaccinated should be branded with a red hot poker.geoffw said:@Cyclefree's offspring's mumps travails reported on the 10pm News. Well not his specifically, but the generality atm.
0 -
I imagine there was a romantic dinner for two in the Downing Street flat this evening.
Bozo and Cumstain knocking back the oysters and champagne.1 -
Has Carrie gone out for the evening then?SandyRentool said:I imagine there was a romantic dinner for two in the Downing Street flat this evening.
Bozo and Cumstain knocking back the oysters and champagne.0 -
I would say Johnson has a huge structural advantage. As long as the Leave block continue to support him and Remainers are demoralised and split he can do whatever he wants. He is however acting very recklessly in creating enemies and storing up problems, which is unlike early Thatcher and Blair. He is also dependent on that Leave / Remain divide being baked in.0
-
Does the word fluffer mean anything to you?rottenborough said:
Has Carrie gone out for the evening then?SandyRentool said:I imagine there was a romantic dinner for two in the Downing Street flat this evening.
Bozo and Cumstain knocking back the oysters and champagne. 0 -
We can add 5% to Starmer's first preferences.rottenborough said:1 -
I'm going for no, but I hope I'm wrong.eadric said:
Yes, Boris is in any politician's dream position.rcs1000 said:
I think that's true.eadric said:
But Boris has the moral authority of a won and done Brexit referendum behind him (and he is also devoid of any rival, unlike Blair with Brown)justin124 said:
Blair's polling position was much stronger in 1997/1998.eadric said:
Boris has amazing stocks of political capital.Big_G_NorthWales said:Westminster Voting Intention:
CON: 48% (-1)
LAB: 28% (-2)
LDM: 10% (+2)
GRN: 6% (+1)
BXP: 2% (=)
Via @YouGov, 8-10 Feb.
Changes w/ 31 Jan-2 Feb.
He needs to spend some ASAP. Extend LHR. Approve HS2 (done). Neutralise Number 11 (done). Withdraw from the ECHR (coming). Destroy the Blob. Reorder the BBC. Overthrow academe. Neutralise the judges.
Boris is so powerful right now he makes Blair, in his pomp, look like Theresa May.
This will not last. Use that power NOW, Boris.
My estimate is that Boris now has more relative, effective power than any prime minister since the victorious Thatcher in 1983, post Falklands. And she then changed the country.
But I also think that he has relatively little time to do what he wants to do.
Right now, there is no effective opposition, at all. And he's just got Brexit done.
But the real governing starts here.
He has united his party, won a resounding majority. and expelled his foes within and without. The Opposition are in total disarray, and show no imminent signs of revival. The majority he won implies that he's likely in power for 10 years, not just 5.
He is ruthlessly and successfully purging any rivals, indeed he now has no Tory rivals.
The only real trouble (domestically) is a secessionist movement in Scotland, but he can legally ignore that, and by ignoring it he is likely to make it explode, and destroy itself.
All that is great for him. He is as powerful Thatcher in 83. BUT has he got the intellectual guts and moral good sense to do what she then did? THAT is the question.
I have no honest idea. And, as you say, the clock ticks ever faster. And Brexit must be "finished".0 -
According to this polling, 47% satisfied with Boris, 44% dissatisfied.eadric said:
But Boris has the moral authority of a won and done Brexit referendum behind him (and he is also devoid of any rival, unlike Blair with Brown)justin124 said:
Blair's polling position was much stronger in 1997/1998.eadric said:
Boris has amazing stocks of political capital.Big_G_NorthWales said:Westminster Voting Intention:
CON: 48% (-1)
LAB: 28% (-2)
LDM: 10% (+2)
GRN: 6% (+1)
BXP: 2% (=)
Via @YouGov, 8-10 Feb.
Changes w/ 31 Jan-2 Feb.
He needs to spend some ASAP. Extend LHR. Approve HS2 (done). Neutralise Number 11 (done). Withdraw from the ECHR (coming). Destroy the Blob. Reorder the BBC. Overthrow academe. Neutralise the judges.
Boris is so powerful right now he makes Blair, in his pomp, look like Theresa May.
This will not last. Use that power NOW, Boris.
My estimate is that Boris now has more relative, effective power than any prime minister since the victorious Thatcher in 1983, post Falklands. And she then changed the country.
One month after Blair in 1997, 72% satisfied , just 7% dissatisfied.
Boris has nothing like as much power.
https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/political-monitor-satisfaction-ratings-1997-present0 -
Thanks for the update @rottenboroughrottenborough said:
Does anyone know much about the new N.I Secretary of State (Brandon)?0 -
What he did was fraudulant.Cyclefree said:
Andrew Wakefield should be in prison for all the harm he has done. There are children who have died as a result of his actions.Philip_Thompson said:
Any parents who deliberately don't vaccinate their kids who are healthy and able to be vaccinated should be branded with a red hot poker.geoffw said:@Cyclefree's offspring's mumps travails reported on the 10pm News. Well not his specifically, but the generality atm.
Free speech means being free to make outrageous suggestions - but that's not what he did. He committed fraud and that should be dealt with by more than just the GMC.0 -
Is he a doctor?Cyclefree said:
Andrew Wakefield should be in prison for all the harm he has done. There are children who have died as a result of his actions.Philip_Thompson said:
Any parents who deliberately don't vaccinate their kids who are healthy and able to be vaccinated should be branded with a red hot poker.geoffw said:@Cyclefree's offspring's mumps travails reported on the 10pm News. Well not his specifically, but the generality atm.
I've never heard of him, iirc. Is that a good thing?0 -
Starmer though will be a committed Remainer as Leader of the Opposition, Corbyn was not which means there will be a clearer alternative on Brexit lines with Starmer pushing a soft Brexit single market alignment line and Boris pushing a harder Brexit and a deeper divide with the EUFF43 said:I would say Johnson has a huge structural advantage. As long as the Leave block continue to support him and Remainers are demoralised and split he can do whatever he wants. He is however acting very recklessly in creating enemies and storing up problems, which is unlike early Thatcher and Blair. He is also dependent on that Leave / Remain divide being baked in.
0 -
I'd deny it if it was bollocks. Should be quite easy to supply if it was true but I doubt it is true.Beibheirli_C said:
Does it matter? If it was supplied you would either ignore it or deny it...Philip_Thompson said:
[Citation Needed]justin124 said:
I disagree - half the country views him with contempt.eadric said:
But Boris has the moral authority of a won and done Brexit referendum behind him (and he is also devoid of any rival, unlike Blair with Brown)justin124 said:
Blair's polling position was much stronger in 1997/1998.eadric said:
Boris has amazing stocks of political capital.Big_G_NorthWales said:Westminster Voting Intention:
CON: 48% (-1)
LAB: 28% (-2)
LDM: 10% (+2)
GRN: 6% (+1)
BXP: 2% (=)
Via @YouGov, 8-10 Feb.
Changes w/ 31 Jan-2 Feb.
He needs to spend some ASAP. Extend LHR. Approve HS2 (done). Neutralise Number 11 (done). Withdraw from the ECHR (coming). Destroy the Blob. Reorder the BBC. Overthrow academe. Neutralise the judges.
Boris is so powerful right now he makes Blair, in his pomp, look like Theresa May.
This will not last. Use that power NOW, Boris.
My estimate is that Boris now has more relative, effective power than any prime minister since the victorious Thatcher in 1983, post Falklands. And she then changed the country.
Not seen evidence for that.
"Contempt" is a very strong word, I would interpret that as people strongly disliking Johnson. There's no way a majority strongly dislike him IMO.1 -
Do you guys think favourite or second favourite?
We could bet both and make money?0 -
Starmer is baking it in by saying he supports FoM. Labour leavers weren’t Singapore-on-Thames merchants, they were more likely wanting protectionism for low income workers against an influx of immigrant labour that broke the market. Seems to me he is turning off the people who they want to win backFF43 said:I would say Johnson has a huge structural advantage. As long as the Leave block continue to support him and Remainers are demoralised and split he can do whatever he wants. He is however acting very recklessly in creating enemies and storing up problems, which is unlike early Thatcher and Blair. He is also dependent on that Leave / Remain divide being baked in.
3 -
Johnson offers nothing to people who voted Remain, who are Scottish, Northern Irish or from London. Leavers like him a lot. He needs that to continue. And for now that looks to be the case.nova said:
According to this polling, 47% satisfied with Boris, 44% dissatisfied.eadric said:
But Boris has the moral authority of a won and done Brexit referendum behind him (and he is also devoid of any rival, unlike Blair with Brown)justin124 said:
Blair's polling position was much stronger in 1997/1998.eadric said:
Boris has amazing stocks of political capital.Big_G_NorthWales said:Westminster Voting Intention:
CON: 48% (-1)
LAB: 28% (-2)
LDM: 10% (+2)
GRN: 6% (+1)
BXP: 2% (=)
Via @YouGov, 8-10 Feb.
Changes w/ 31 Jan-2 Feb.
He needs to spend some ASAP. Extend LHR. Approve HS2 (done). Neutralise Number 11 (done). Withdraw from the ECHR (coming). Destroy the Blob. Reorder the BBC. Overthrow academe. Neutralise the judges.
Boris is so powerful right now he makes Blair, in his pomp, look like Theresa May.
This will not last. Use that power NOW, Boris.
My estimate is that Boris now has more relative, effective power than any prime minister since the victorious Thatcher in 1983, post Falklands. And she then changed the country.
One month after Blair in 1997, 72% satisfied , just 7% dissatisfied.
Boris has nothing like as much power.
https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/political-monitor-satisfaction-ratings-1997-present0 -
Astounding statistic.nova said:
According to this polling, 47% satisfied with Boris, 44% dissatisfied.eadric said:
But Boris has the moral authority of a won and done Brexit referendum behind him (and he is also devoid of any rival, unlike Blair with Brown)justin124 said:
Blair's polling position was much stronger in 1997/1998.eadric said:
Boris has amazing stocks of political capital.Big_G_NorthWales said:Westminster Voting Intention:
CON: 48% (-1)
LAB: 28% (-2)
LDM: 10% (+2)
GRN: 6% (+1)
BXP: 2% (=)
Via @YouGov, 8-10 Feb.
Changes w/ 31 Jan-2 Feb.
He needs to spend some ASAP. Extend LHR. Approve HS2 (done). Neutralise Number 11 (done). Withdraw from the ECHR (coming). Destroy the Blob. Reorder the BBC. Overthrow academe. Neutralise the judges.
Boris is so powerful right now he makes Blair, in his pomp, look like Theresa May.
This will not last. Use that power NOW, Boris.
My estimate is that Boris now has more relative, effective power than any prime minister since the victorious Thatcher in 1983, post Falklands. And she then changed the country.
One month after Blair in 1997, 72% satisfied , just 7% dissatisfied.
Boris has nothing like as much power.
https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/political-monitor-satisfaction-ratings-1997-present0 -
For the record, conservative most seats is almost guaranteed.FF43 said:
Johnson offers nothing to people who voted Remain, who are Scottish, Northern Irish or from London. Leavers like him a lot. He needs that to continue. And for now that looks to be the case.nova said:
According to this polling, 47% satisfied with Boris, 44% dissatisfied.eadric said:
But Boris has the moral authority of a won and done Brexit referendum behind him (and he is also devoid of any rival, unlike Blair with Brown)justin124 said:
Blair's polling position was much stronger in 1997/1998.eadric said:
Boris has amazing stocks of political capital.Big_G_NorthWales said:Westminster Voting Intention:
CON: 48% (-1)
LAB: 28% (-2)
LDM: 10% (+2)
GRN: 6% (+1)
BXP: 2% (=)
Via @YouGov, 8-10 Feb.
Changes w/ 31 Jan-2 Feb.
He needs to spend some ASAP. Extend LHR. Approve HS2 (done). Neutralise Number 11 (done). Withdraw from the ECHR (coming). Destroy the Blob. Reorder the BBC. Overthrow academe. Neutralise the judges.
Boris is so powerful right now he makes Blair, in his pomp, look like Theresa May.
This will not last. Use that power NOW, Boris.
My estimate is that Boris now has more relative, effective power than any prime minister since the victorious Thatcher in 1983, post Falklands. And she then changed the country.
One month after Blair in 1997, 72% satisfied , just 7% dissatisfied.
Boris has nothing like as much power.
https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/political-monitor-satisfaction-ratings-1997-present0 -
-
I think that market is priced correctly.TheGreenMachine said:
Do you guys think favourite or second favourite?
We could bet both and make money?0 -
Nothing? He got votes from some of them.FF43 said:
Johnson offers nothing to people who voted Remain, who are Scottish, Northern Irish or from London. Leavers like him a lot. He needs that to continue. And for now that looks to be the case.nova said:
According to this polling, 47% satisfied with Boris, 44% dissatisfied.eadric said:
But Boris has the moral authority of a won and done Brexit referendum behind him (and he is also devoid of any rival, unlike Blair with Brown)justin124 said:
Blair's polling position was much stronger in 1997/1998.eadric said:
Boris has amazing stocks of political capital.Big_G_NorthWales said:Westminster Voting Intention:
CON: 48% (-1)
LAB: 28% (-2)
LDM: 10% (+2)
GRN: 6% (+1)
BXP: 2% (=)
Via @YouGov, 8-10 Feb.
Changes w/ 31 Jan-2 Feb.
He needs to spend some ASAP. Extend LHR. Approve HS2 (done). Neutralise Number 11 (done). Withdraw from the ECHR (coming). Destroy the Blob. Reorder the BBC. Overthrow academe. Neutralise the judges.
Boris is so powerful right now he makes Blair, in his pomp, look like Theresa May.
This will not last. Use that power NOW, Boris.
My estimate is that Boris now has more relative, effective power than any prime minister since the victorious Thatcher in 1983, post Falklands. And she then changed the country.
One month after Blair in 1997, 72% satisfied , just 7% dissatisfied.
Boris has nothing like as much power.
https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/political-monitor-satisfaction-ratings-1997-present0 -
I think you need a refresher on the definition of power.nova said:
According to this polling, 47% satisfied with Boris, 44% dissatisfied.eadric said:
But Boris has the moral authority of a won and done Brexit referendum behind him (and he is also devoid of any rival, unlike Blair with Brown)justin124 said:
Blair's polling position was much stronger in 1997/1998.eadric said:
Boris has amazing stocks of political capital.Big_G_NorthWales said:Westminster Voting Intention:
CON: 48% (-1)
LAB: 28% (-2)
LDM: 10% (+2)
GRN: 6% (+1)
BXP: 2% (=)
Via @YouGov, 8-10 Feb.
Changes w/ 31 Jan-2 Feb.
He needs to spend some ASAP. Extend LHR. Approve HS2 (done). Neutralise Number 11 (done). Withdraw from the ECHR (coming). Destroy the Blob. Reorder the BBC. Overthrow academe. Neutralise the judges.
Boris is so powerful right now he makes Blair, in his pomp, look like Theresa May.
This will not last. Use that power NOW, Boris.
My estimate is that Boris now has more relative, effective power than any prime minister since the victorious Thatcher in 1983, post Falklands. And she then changed the country.
One month after Blair in 1997, 72% satisfied , just 7% dissatisfied.
Boris has nothing like as much power.
https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/political-monitor-satisfaction-ratings-1997-present
Power is the rate of doing work in a unit of time.
Boris is getting stuff done, which is why there are many dissatisfied, but those dissatisfied have little opportunity to obstruct him following the election.
Blair had few dissatisfied with him because despite his landslide he wasn't getting that much work done, so he wasn't pissing people off.
Thus Boris has more power.1 -
He’s the doctor, now struck off, who claimed that the MMR vaccine caused autism. The basis for his claim was utterly fraudulent. The effect of his claims was a reduction in the vaccinations below the level necessary for herd immunity. It has resulted in some deaths from these childhood diseases. He is now in the US, maintaining the same utterly discredited claims and is targeting particular communities with his fraudulent science - Somalis, for instance.TheGreenMachine said:
Is he a doctor?Cyclefree said:
Andrew Wakefield should be in prison for all the harm he has done. There are children who have died as a result of his actions.Philip_Thompson said:
Any parents who deliberately don't vaccinate their kids who are healthy and able to be vaccinated should be branded with a red hot poker.geoffw said:@Cyclefree's offspring's mumps travails reported on the 10pm News. Well not his specifically, but the generality atm.
I've never heard of him, iirc. Is that a good thing?
These programmes give a good account of the appalling story -
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b09rwgcg.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b00zm328
And this from the journalist who helped expose him - https://briandeer.com/mmr/lancet-summary.htm.0 -
Blair started off too timid, and with hindsight surely regretted it. Then overshot with Iraq.justin124 said:
Blair's polling position was much stronger in 1997/1998.eadric said:
Boris has amazing stocks of political capital.Big_G_NorthWales said:Westminster Voting Intention:
CON: 48% (-1)
LAB: 28% (-2)
LDM: 10% (+2)
GRN: 6% (+1)
BXP: 2% (=)
Via @YouGov, 8-10 Feb.
Changes w/ 31 Jan-2 Feb.
He needs to spend some ASAP. Extend LHR. Approve HS2 (done). Neutralise Number 11 (done). Withdraw from the ECHR (coming). Destroy the Blob. Reorder the BBC. Overthrow academe. Neutralise the judges.
Boris is so powerful right now he makes Blair, in his pomp, look like Theresa May.
This will not last. Use that power NOW, Boris.
Johnson started off too bold. We shall see.0 -
He doesn't seem to understand the NI bit of the WDA.TheGreenMachine said:
Thanks for the update @rottenboroughrottenborough said:
Does anyone know much about the new N.I Secretary of State (Brandon)?
1 -
Starmer is not targeting Labour Leave voters who went Tory or Brexit Party, he is targeting Tory and LD Remainers and soft Leavers who do not want to leave the single market but did not vote Labour last time as they disliked Corbynisam said:
Starmer is baking it in by saying he supports FoM. Labour leavers weren’t Singapore-on-Thames merchants, they were more likely wanting protectionism for low income workers against an influx of immigrant labour that broke the market. Seems to me he is turning off the people who they want to win backFF43 said:I would say Johnson has a huge structural advantage. As long as the Leave block continue to support him and Remainers are demoralised and split he can do whatever he wants. He is however acting very recklessly in creating enemies and storing up problems, which is unlike early Thatcher and Blair. He is also dependent on that Leave / Remain divide being baked in.
1 -
I had a meeting with him during the coalition. The Tory I went with warned me that he was “a bit of an oik”. So he was, but he was pleasant enough. But we didn’t get any help with what we wanted.Foxy said:
He doesn't seem to understand the NI bit of the WDA.TheGreenMachine said:
Thanks for the update @rottenboroughrottenborough said:
Does anyone know much about the new N.I Secretary of State (Brandon)?0 -
Seriously - withdrawing from the European Convention on Human Rights?IanB2 said:
Blair started off too timid, and with hindsight surely regretted it. Then overshot with Iraq.justin124 said:
Blair's polling position was much stronger in 1997/1998.eadric said:
Boris has amazing stocks of political capital.Big_G_NorthWales said:Westminster Voting Intention:
CON: 48% (-1)
LAB: 28% (-2)
LDM: 10% (+2)
GRN: 6% (+1)
BXP: 2% (=)
Via @YouGov, 8-10 Feb.
Changes w/ 31 Jan-2 Feb.
He needs to spend some ASAP. Extend LHR. Approve HS2 (done). Neutralise Number 11 (done). Withdraw from the ECHR (coming). Destroy the Blob. Reorder the BBC. Overthrow academe. Neutralise the judges.
Boris is so powerful right now he makes Blair, in his pomp, look like Theresa May.
This will not last. Use that power NOW, Boris.
Johnson started off too bold. We shall see.
Seriously? The Tories no longer want to protect the right to property or to free association or to a family life? Or to a fair trial? Or freedom of thought, conscience or religion? Or freedom of expression? Or freedom from discrimination?
1 -
She's a class act.
https://twitter.com/ayeshahazarika/status/1228237188153798658
Let's hope she has a big role in Labour's future.0 -
Why do we need a european court to protect those rights?Cyclefree said:
Seriously - withdrawing from the European Convention on Human Rights?IanB2 said:
Blair started off too timid, and with hindsight surely regretted it. Then overshot with Iraq.justin124 said:
Blair's polling position was much stronger in 1997/1998.eadric said:
Boris has amazing stocks of political capital.Big_G_NorthWales said:Westminster Voting Intention:
CON: 48% (-1)
LAB: 28% (-2)
LDM: 10% (+2)
GRN: 6% (+1)
BXP: 2% (=)
Via @YouGov, 8-10 Feb.
Changes w/ 31 Jan-2 Feb.
He needs to spend some ASAP. Extend LHR. Approve HS2 (done). Neutralise Number 11 (done). Withdraw from the ECHR (coming). Destroy the Blob. Reorder the BBC. Overthrow academe. Neutralise the judges.
Boris is so powerful right now he makes Blair, in his pomp, look like Theresa May.
This will not last. Use that power NOW, Boris.
Johnson started off too bold. We shall see.
Seriously? The Tories no longer want to protect the right to property or to free association or to a family life? Or to a fair trial? Or freedom of thought, conscience or religion? Or freedom of expression? Or freedom from discrimination?1 -
Not really. If Brexit underperforms it is anybody's game, unless RLB becomes Labour leader. Then you are correct under almost all circumstances.TheGreenMachine said:
For the record, conservative most seats is almost guaranteed.FF43 said:
Johnson offers nothing to people who voted Remain, who are Scottish, Northern Irish or from London. Leavers like him a lot. He needs that to continue. And for now that looks to be the case.nova said:
According to this polling, 47% satisfied with Boris, 44% dissatisfied.eadric said:
But Boris has the moral authority of a won and done Brexit referendum behind him (and he is also devoid of any rival, unlike Blair with Brown)justin124 said:
Blair's polling position was much stronger in 1997/1998.eadric said:
Boris has amazing stocks of political capital.Big_G_NorthWales said:Westminster Voting Intention:
CON: 48% (-1)
LAB: 28% (-2)
LDM: 10% (+2)
GRN: 6% (+1)
BXP: 2% (=)
Via @YouGov, 8-10 Feb.
Changes w/ 31 Jan-2 Feb.
He needs to spend some ASAP. Extend LHR. Approve HS2 (done). Neutralise Number 11 (done). Withdraw from the ECHR (coming). Destroy the Blob. Reorder the BBC. Overthrow academe. Neutralise the judges.
Boris is so powerful right now he makes Blair, in his pomp, look like Theresa May.
This will not last. Use that power NOW, Boris.
My estimate is that Boris now has more relative, effective power than any prime minister since the victorious Thatcher in 1983, post Falklands. And she then changed the country.
One month after Blair in 1997, 72% satisfied , just 7% dissatisfied.
Boris has nothing like as much power.
https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/political-monitor-satisfaction-ratings-1997-present0 -
Those ex Labour leave voters depend entirely on whether the Tories deliver for them, or return to their old ways. In the former case there isn’t much Labour can do, and in the latter they won’t need to try.HYUFD said:
Starmer is not targeting Labour Leave voters who went Tory or Brexit Party, he is targeting Tory and LD Remainers and soft Leavers who do not want to leave the single market but did not vote Labour last time as they disliked Corbynisam said:
Starmer is baking it in by saying he supports FoM. Labour leavers weren’t Singapore-on-Thames merchants, they were more likely wanting protectionism for low income workers against an influx of immigrant labour that broke the market. Seems to me he is turning off the people who they want to win backFF43 said:I would say Johnson has a huge structural advantage. As long as the Leave block continue to support him and Remainers are demoralised and split he can do whatever he wants. He is however acting very recklessly in creating enemies and storing up problems, which is unlike early Thatcher and Blair. He is also dependent on that Leave / Remain divide being baked in.
0 -
Absolutely right. We'll make a floating voter out of you yet!HYUFD said:
Starmer is not targeting Labour Leave voters who went Tory or Brexit Party, he is targeting Tory and LD Remainers and soft Leavers who do not want to leave the single market but did not vote Labour last time as they disliked Corbynisam said:
Starmer is baking it in by saying he supports FoM. Labour leavers weren’t Singapore-on-Thames merchants, they were more likely wanting protectionism for low income workers against an influx of immigrant labour that broke the market. Seems to me he is turning off the people who they want to win backFF43 said:I would say Johnson has a huge structural advantage. As long as the Leave block continue to support him and Remainers are demoralised and split he can do whatever he wants. He is however acting very recklessly in creating enemies and storing up problems, which is unlike early Thatcher and Blair. He is also dependent on that Leave / Remain divide being baked in.
1 -
After reading that, I think I just need a refresherPhilip_Thompson said:
I think you need a refresher on the definition of power.nova said:
According to this polling, 47% satisfied with Boris, 44% dissatisfied.eadric said:
But Boris has the moral authority of a won and done Brexit referendum behind him (and he is also devoid of any rival, unlike Blair with Brown)justin124 said:
Blair's polling position was much stronger in 1997/1998.eadric said:
Boris has amazing stocks of political capital.Big_G_NorthWales said:Westminster Voting Intention:
CON: 48% (-1)
LAB: 28% (-2)
LDM: 10% (+2)
GRN: 6% (+1)
BXP: 2% (=)
Via @YouGov, 8-10 Feb.
Changes w/ 31 Jan-2 Feb.
He needs to spend some ASAP. Extend LHR. Approve HS2 (done). Neutralise Number 11 (done). Withdraw from the ECHR (coming). Destroy the Blob. Reorder the BBC. Overthrow academe. Neutralise the judges.
Boris is so powerful right now he makes Blair, in his pomp, look like Theresa May.
This will not last. Use that power NOW, Boris.
My estimate is that Boris now has more relative, effective power than any prime minister since the victorious Thatcher in 1983, post Falklands. And she then changed the country.
One month after Blair in 1997, 72% satisfied , just 7% dissatisfied.
Boris has nothing like as much power.
https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/political-monitor-satisfaction-ratings-1997-present
Power is the rate of doing work in a unit of time.
Boris is getting stuff done, which is why there are many dissatisfied, but those dissatisfied have little opportunity to obstruct him following the election.
Blair had few dissatisfied with him because despite his landslide he wasn't getting that much work done, so he wasn't pissing people off.
Thus Boris has more power.
0 -
I think it's more than half in my country.justin124 said:
I disagree - half the country views him with contempt.eadric said:
But Boris has the moral authority of a won and done Brexit referendum behind him (and he is also devoid of any rival, unlike Blair with Brown)justin124 said:
Blair's polling position was much stronger in 1997/1998.eadric said:
Boris has amazing stocks of political capital.Big_G_NorthWales said:Westminster Voting Intention:
CON: 48% (-1)
LAB: 28% (-2)
LDM: 10% (+2)
GRN: 6% (+1)
BXP: 2% (=)
Via @YouGov, 8-10 Feb.
Changes w/ 31 Jan-2 Feb.
He needs to spend some ASAP. Extend LHR. Approve HS2 (done). Neutralise Number 11 (done). Withdraw from the ECHR (coming). Destroy the Blob. Reorder the BBC. Overthrow academe. Neutralise the judges.
Boris is so powerful right now he makes Blair, in his pomp, look like Theresa May.
This will not last. Use that power NOW, Boris.
My estimate is that Boris now has more relative, effective power than any prime minister since the victorious Thatcher in 1983, post Falklands. And she then changed the country.1 -
I am not a floating voter but Labour post Corbyn are more likely to win Tory or LD Remainers who voted against Corbyn than Leavers who voted for Boris and for Brexit, the former are culturally generally more liberal and opposed to Brexit, the latter culturally more conservative and back BrexitMexicanpete said:
Absolutely right. We'll make a floating voter out of you yet!HYUFD said:
Starmer is not targeting Labour Leave voters who went Tory or Brexit Party, he is targeting Tory and LD Remainers and soft Leavers who do not want to leave the single market but did not vote Labour last time as they disliked Corbynisam said:
Starmer is baking it in by saying he supports FoM. Labour leavers weren’t Singapore-on-Thames merchants, they were more likely wanting protectionism for low income workers against an influx of immigrant labour that broke the market. Seems to me he is turning off the people who they want to win backFF43 said:I would say Johnson has a huge structural advantage. As long as the Leave block continue to support him and Remainers are demoralised and split he can do whatever he wants. He is however acting very recklessly in creating enemies and storing up problems, which is unlike early Thatcher and Blair. He is also dependent on that Leave / Remain divide being baked in.
0 -
He’s not really talking about power at all. Johnson is spending the political capital he has, whereas Blair let much of his fritter away. The question is whether there is a return on the capital he is spending.nova said:
After reading that, I think I just need a refresherPhilip_Thompson said:
I think you need a refresher on the definition of power.nova said:
According to this polling, 47% satisfied with Boris, 44% dissatisfied.eadric said:
But Boris has the moral authority of a won and done Brexit referendum behind him (and he is also devoid of any rival, unlike Blair with Brown)justin124 said:
Blair's polling position was much stronger in 1997/1998.eadric said:
Boris has amazing stocks of political capital.Big_G_NorthWales said:Westminster Voting Intention:
CON: 48% (-1)
LAB: 28% (-2)
LDM: 10% (+2)
GRN: 6% (+1)
BXP: 2% (=)
Via @YouGov, 8-10 Feb.
Changes w/ 31 Jan-2 Feb.
He needs to spend some ASAP. Extend LHR. Approve HS2 (done). Neutralise Number 11 (done). Withdraw from the ECHR (coming). Destroy the Blob. Reorder the BBC. Overthrow academe. Neutralise the judges.
Boris is so powerful right now he makes Blair, in his pomp, look like Theresa May.
This will not last. Use that power NOW, Boris.
My estimate is that Boris now has more relative, effective power than any prime minister since the victorious Thatcher in 1983, post Falklands. And she then changed the country.
One month after Blair in 1997, 72% satisfied , just 7% dissatisfied.
Boris has nothing like as much power.
https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/political-monitor-satisfaction-ratings-1997-present
Power is the rate of doing work in a unit of time.
Boris is getting stuff done, which is why there are many dissatisfied, but those dissatisfied have little opportunity to obstruct him following the election.
Blair had few dissatisfied with him because despite his landslide he wasn't getting that much work done, so he wasn't pissing people off.
Thus Boris has more power.0 -
Mail:
"Dangerous, manic and more like the nasty, hard-left than the Conservatives: STEPHEN GLOVER fears that Dominic Cummings, the second most powerful person in Britain, could cause serious damage to Boris Johnson's administration"
If Mr Cummings did not exist, Mr Javid would still be Chancellor. That is an extraordinary reflection. The second most senior person in Her Majesty’s Government has been removed because an adviser wanted to clip the wings of the Treasury, and seemingly nursed a private vendetta.
A matter of time now...0 -
No room for pink Tories in an RLB Shadow Cabinet!rottenborough said:She's a class act.
https://twitter.com/ayeshahazarika/status/1228237188153798658
Let's hope she has a big role in Labour's future.0 -
Because Cummings and Sue Ellen want to destroy our rule of law.RobD said:
Why do we need a european court to protect those rights?Cyclefree said:
Seriously - withdrawing from the European Convention on Human Rights?IanB2 said:
Blair started off too timid, and with hindsight surely regretted it. Then overshot with Iraq.justin124 said:
Blair's polling position was much stronger in 1997/1998.eadric said:
Boris has amazing stocks of political capital.Big_G_NorthWales said:Westminster Voting Intention:
CON: 48% (-1)
LAB: 28% (-2)
LDM: 10% (+2)
GRN: 6% (+1)
BXP: 2% (=)
Via @YouGov, 8-10 Feb.
Changes w/ 31 Jan-2 Feb.
He needs to spend some ASAP. Extend LHR. Approve HS2 (done). Neutralise Number 11 (done). Withdraw from the ECHR (coming). Destroy the Blob. Reorder the BBC. Overthrow academe. Neutralise the judges.
Boris is so powerful right now he makes Blair, in his pomp, look like Theresa May.
This will not last. Use that power NOW, Boris.
Johnson started off too bold. We shall see.
Seriously? The Tories no longer want to protect the right to property or to free association or to a family life? Or to a fair trial? Or freedom of thought, conscience or religion? Or freedom of expression? Or freedom from discrimination?1 -
Give up with the hyperbole.Foxy said:
Because Cummings and Sue Ellen want to destroy our rule of law.RobD said:
Why do we need a european court to protect those rights?Cyclefree said:
Seriously - withdrawing from the European Convention on Human Rights?IanB2 said:
Blair started off too timid, and with hindsight surely regretted it. Then overshot with Iraq.justin124 said:
Blair's polling position was much stronger in 1997/1998.eadric said:
Boris has amazing stocks of political capital.Big_G_NorthWales said:Westminster Voting Intention:
CON: 48% (-1)
LAB: 28% (-2)
LDM: 10% (+2)
GRN: 6% (+1)
BXP: 2% (=)
Via @YouGov, 8-10 Feb.
Changes w/ 31 Jan-2 Feb.
He needs to spend some ASAP. Extend LHR. Approve HS2 (done). Neutralise Number 11 (done). Withdraw from the ECHR (coming). Destroy the Blob. Reorder the BBC. Overthrow academe. Neutralise the judges.
Boris is so powerful right now he makes Blair, in his pomp, look like Theresa May.
This will not last. Use that power NOW, Boris.
Johnson started off too bold. We shall see.
Seriously? The Tories no longer want to protect the right to property or to free association or to a family life? Or to a fair trial? Or freedom of thought, conscience or religion? Or freedom of expression? Or freedom from discrimination?0 -
We largely wrote the Convention.RobD said:
Why do we need a european court to protect those rights?Cyclefree said:
Seriously - withdrawing from the European Convention on Human Rights?IanB2 said:
Blair started off too timid, and with hindsight surely regretted it. Then overshot with Iraq.justin124 said:
Blair's polling position was much stronger in 1997/1998.eadric said:
Boris has amazing stocks of political capital.Big_G_NorthWales said:Westminster Voting Intention:
CON: 48% (-1)
LAB: 28% (-2)
LDM: 10% (+2)
GRN: 6% (+1)
BXP: 2% (=)
Via @YouGov, 8-10 Feb.
Changes w/ 31 Jan-2 Feb.
He needs to spend some ASAP. Extend LHR. Approve HS2 (done). Neutralise Number 11 (done). Withdraw from the ECHR (coming). Destroy the Blob. Reorder the BBC. Overthrow academe. Neutralise the judges.
Boris is so powerful right now he makes Blair, in his pomp, look like Theresa May.
This will not last. Use that power NOW, Boris.
Johnson started off too bold. We shall see.
Seriously? The Tories no longer want to protect the right to property or to free association or to a family life? Or to a fair trial? Or freedom of thought, conscience or religion? Or freedom of expression? Or freedom from discrimination?
Why do we need to withdraw from it? If we are not going to remove the rights protected by the Convention why withdraw? Or do you really think that the government wants to withdraw from the ECHR and strengthen or support the domestic Human Rights Act?
But the reason we should stay within the ECHR is because this government has expressly stated that it wants to restrict the rights of the courts here. So it feels as if they want both to strip away our rights and our ability to protect those rights and to take action against an overmighty/oppressive government.0 -
I'd suggest nothing is guaranteed either way.FF43 said:For the record, conservative most seats is almost guaranteed.
If the Leave/Remain vote unwinds things could change very quickly.
Labour have a very easy win replacing Corbyn.
On the other hand Boris could clearly be a Prime Minister like no other...0 -
Those aren't oysters...SandyRentool said:I imagine there was a romantic dinner for two in the Downing Street flat this evening.
Bozo and Cumstain knocking back the oysters and champagne.
0 -
I was only joking. I think your analysis is accurate nonetheless.HYUFD said:
I am not a floating voter but Labour post Corbyn are more likely to win Tory or LD Remainers who voted against Corbyn than Leavers who voted for Boris and for Brexit, the former are culturally generally more liberal and opposed to Brexit, the latter culturally more conservative and back BrexitMexicanpete said:
Absolutely right. We'll make a floating voter out of you yet!HYUFD said:
Starmer is not targeting Labour Leave voters who went Tory or Brexit Party, he is targeting Tory and LD Remainers and soft Leavers who do not want to leave the single market but did not vote Labour last time as they disliked Corbynisam said:
Starmer is baking it in by saying he supports FoM. Labour leavers weren’t Singapore-on-Thames merchants, they were more likely wanting protectionism for low income workers against an influx of immigrant labour that broke the market. Seems to me he is turning off the people who they want to win backFF43 said:I would say Johnson has a huge structural advantage. As long as the Leave block continue to support him and Remainers are demoralised and split he can do whatever he wants. He is however acting very recklessly in creating enemies and storing up problems, which is unlike early Thatcher and Blair. He is also dependent on that Leave / Remain divide being baked in.
1
