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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Irish General Election 2020 : Results & Review (Part Two : G –
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Irish General Election 2020 : Results & Review (Part Two : G – L Constituencies)
It has now been nearly a week since the Irish General Election took place on the 8th of February 2020 and we are still no further on to getting a Dáil government elected. It was pretty much a three way tie with Micheál Martin’s Fianna Fáil on 38 seats, Mary Lou McDonald’s Sinn Féin on 37 seats and Leo Varadkar’s Fine Gael on 35 seats. Who is going to be the next Taoiseach and which parties will form the coalition? We simply don’t know but what do know is the elected T.D’s, but who were they? Find out here.
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I love puns.
Rebecca Long-Bailey 164
Lisa Nandy 72
Emily Thornberry 31
__
Angela Rayner 365
Dawn Butler 82
Richard Burgon 77
Ian Murray 60
Rosena Allin-Khan 56
“Has the unsuccessful attempt to remove President Trump from office made him weaker or stronger politically?”
Weaker: 16%
Stronger: 55%
No Impact: 23%
Not Sure: 5%
"Even a plurality of self-described liberals (48%-44%) say impeachment made Trump stronger rather than weaker, as did Conservatives (71%-27%), Moderates (60%-29%), those Not Sure (41%-40%) of their political stance.
"What’s more – by a nearly two-to-one margin – voters want Democrats to stop trying to remove Trump from office and turn their attention to other issues."
CON: 48% (-1)
LAB: 28% (-2)
LDM: 10% (+2)
GRN: 6% (+1)
BXP: 2% (=)
Via @YouGov, 8-10 Feb.
Changes w/ 31 Jan-2 Feb.
With FG and Labour seemingly not wanting to play the chances of anything approaching a stable majority look slim but the maths mean none of the three big players can realistically govern without the tacit support of one of the other two.
Oceania is at war with Eurasia - it has always been at war with Eurasia.
There is a thought any Government should do the unpopular things first and get them out of the way because a) people won't notice and b) people don't care so soon after an election.
I suspect the Honeymoon will continue for a while yet but it will end at some point and when it does it may well be dramatic and it may caused by something entirely outside the Government's control.
Who would have predicted an Argentinean invasion of the Falklands back in July 1979 and who would have predicted the shocking events of September 11th back in July of 2001.
Events, dear boy, events - as someone once said.
The political culture of RoI is very different from NI or GB. The relative success of the 2010-15 Con/Lib Dem coalition could have changed things but the experience of the 2017-19 Parliament has I believe killed any appetite among the public for electoral reform or desire to risk minority governments becoming a regular feature at Westminster. Unless Labour recover in Scotland the Tories can and will continue to successfully use the Lab/SNP/Lib Dem "Coalition of Chaos" line of attack.
Honestly, I'm slightly disappointed Thornberry hasn't made it, getting her on the ballot didn't present anything like the additional moral hazard to Labour that putting Corbyn on ultimately represented, either in terms of her policies being way off those of the other candidates nor in her having any real chance of making an impact on the result. Instead, she could have added a bit of grit to the oyster of this leadership election and made others raise their game by being a capable candidate with little to lose.
That in itself would have been worthwhile.
So, the remaining field. Corbyn has moved the Labour Overton window in that every single candidate is somewhat more left wing than you actually think they are. I've no great problem with that - I've said before that, even as someone with deeply centrist instincts, the challenges facing us in 2020 are much more societal than they ever were in 1997, and the policy areas where fundamental rethink is needed - e.g. housing, care, proper regulation - are much more ripe for selective radicalism than the 'public services' challenges that faced Blair.
I think if it happens it should apply from next season - we're already too far into this season and it will either be a meaningless sanction, or it will be an announced deduction which hands Liverpool the title and that shouldn't happen!
SF, well, duh!
FF are the pro-constitutionalist wing of SF led by De Valera to break away from his own party in 1926
FG are descended from the pro-Treaty faction of SF that broke away in 1922-23.
Irish Labour merged with Democratic Left in 1999, which broke away from the Workers' Party in 1992, which used to be called Official Sinn Fein until 1982, which split from the Provos (today's SF) in 1970.
You see, the most likely consequence of the rise of Bloomberg is that Sanders becomes the nominee. Simply, he fractures the moderate vote, and allows Sanders to get a plurality of the delegates.
But Sanders being the nominee all but guarantees Trump the election. Sanders wants to remove all private healthcare in the US. This is probably the biggest single vote destroyer in the history of America. It pretty much ensures Trump wins reelection. (Removing private healthcare is an unpopular policy even among Democrats.)
But this is actually all for the good.
You see, Trump has engaged in a series of policies best described as Heathian. Like Heath and his Chancellor Anthony Barber, he's cutting taxes and increasing spending. Now, capital flowing into the US from abroad has allowed this to work for now. But it will not continue indefinitely. And it's right and proper and just that President Trump is President when the shit hits the fan.
So, Sanders gets defeated, which tells the Democrats you can't have a loony socialist as nominee, and they hopefully get it out of their system,
And a policy of massive fiscal deficits is shown up for what it is: a really bad idea. And so the Republicans become the party of sound money and good public finances again.
Not seen evidence for that.
But I also think that he has relatively little time to do what he wants to do.
Right now, there is no effective opposition, at all. And he's just got Brexit done.
But the real governing starts here.
https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/ipsos-mori-political-monitor-attitudes-labour-leadership-candidates
Bozo and Cumstain knocking back the oysters and champagne.
One month after Blair in 1997, 72% satisfied , just 7% dissatisfied.
Boris has nothing like as much power.
https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/political-monitor-satisfaction-ratings-1997-present
Does anyone know much about the new N.I Secretary of State (Brandon)?
Free speech means being free to make outrageous suggestions - but that's not what he did. He committed fraud and that should be dealt with by more than just the GMC.
I've never heard of him, iirc. Is that a good thing?
"Contempt" is a very strong word, I would interpret that as people strongly disliking Johnson. There's no way a majority strongly dislike him IMO.
Do you guys think favourite or second favourite?
We could bet both and make money?
Power is the rate of doing work in a unit of time.
Boris is getting stuff done, which is why there are many dissatisfied, but those dissatisfied have little opportunity to obstruct him following the election.
Blair had few dissatisfied with him because despite his landslide he wasn't getting that much work done, so he wasn't pissing people off.
Thus Boris has more power.
These programmes give a good account of the appalling story -
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b09rwgcg.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b00zm328
And this from the journalist who helped expose him - https://briandeer.com/mmr/lancet-summary.htm.
Johnson started off too bold. We shall see.
Seriously? The Tories no longer want to protect the right to property or to free association or to a family life? Or to a fair trial? Or freedom of thought, conscience or religion? Or freedom of expression? Or freedom from discrimination?
https://twitter.com/ayeshahazarika/status/1228237188153798658
Let's hope she has a big role in Labour's future.
"Dangerous, manic and more like the nasty, hard-left than the Conservatives: STEPHEN GLOVER fears that Dominic Cummings, the second most powerful person in Britain, could cause serious damage to Boris Johnson's administration"
If Mr Cummings did not exist, Mr Javid would still be Chancellor. That is an extraordinary reflection. The second most senior person in Her Majesty’s Government has been removed because an adviser wanted to clip the wings of the Treasury, and seemingly nursed a private vendetta.
A matter of time now...
Why do we need to withdraw from it? If we are not going to remove the rights protected by the Convention why withdraw? Or do you really think that the government wants to withdraw from the ECHR and strengthen or support the domestic Human Rights Act?
But the reason we should stay within the ECHR is because this government has expressly stated that it wants to restrict the rights of the courts here. So it feels as if they want both to strip away our rights and our ability to protect those rights and to take action against an overmighty/oppressive government.
If the Leave/Remain vote unwinds things could change very quickly.
Labour have a very easy win replacing Corbyn.
On the other hand Boris could clearly be a Prime Minister like no other...