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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » YouGov finds that a remarkable 45% of the over 60s say they’ll be voting Ukip in the Euros
Probably the most remarkable feature from the latest YouGov Euros poll is the split amongst the 60+ age group – featured in the chart above. As can be seen some 45% of those who expressed a voting intention said UKIP.
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http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/04/25/ukip-move-first-place-euro-elections/
To many who felt they were voting for a common trading market and not a federal government based in Brussels whose legislation has primacy over that of the UK Parliament, these people resent the deception of Ted Heath and fellow Europhiles whose policy of omission of many of their objectives, including giving up of UK's fishing rights, are fiercely resented today.
These people also resent the nigh uncontrolled immigration policy of TB and Labour that has resulted in a too rapid and in places an overwhelming culture change and also resent that they were called racists by the political intelligensia who tried to shut down that debate using PC and other methods.
For these people who feel that such policies by politicians who were mainly shielded from the effects of the policies that they imposed on the electorate, they have been waiting for a leader - warts and all - who could voice their long=held sense of injustice and will use this chance to make their voice heard.
However, their vote in 2015 may not stay with UKIP when the UK's internal policies are considered.
But it is clear that people voted on an economic community, and we are no longer in solely an economic community. So it is only reasonable to ask for the authority to be revalidated (setting aside the fact that people of my generation never got to vote on it).
While Europe may irk them, I suspect they are at least as much bothered by non EU immigration and socially conservative issues. This is the last generation that remembers the fifties and sixties.
Another point is selective mortality. These are people who will be three years older in 2017 for the Tory Tory Euro referendum; but will be 7 years older if there is only a referendum after a 2020 election. The youngest will be 72 by that time, and as we know Kippers are disproportionally CDE and lower income, may simply not be around to vote.
Time is not on the kippers side.
I have said before, come May this year I expect a surprising slice of Old Labour in particular to go UKIP - and a worringly poor result for Labour as the supposed "Govt. in waiting".
Why DNA evidence is only as good as the procedures that surround it:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-26324244
I was opposed to membership under the Treaty of Rome in 1975, for the usual left-wing reasons despite a general sympathy for cross-border cooperation - (1) it locks in a free market, and (2) at that time I felt that Europe would act as a brake on our splendid left-wing policies. Nowadays I feel that (1) is broadly the way of the world for better or worse and (2) au contraire, and I'm not as leftish as I was anyway. I know quite a few others who feel similarly, so the switching since then hasn't all been one way.
Leaving aside personal preference, I think that there would only be a withdrawal vote if the government of the day wanted one or was at least neutral - the polls on how people would vote if Cameron declared he'd got some concessions are pretty clear. The median view seems to be disgruntlement with the EU without a clear wish to pull out.
The IEA have produced another anti-HS2 report, just in time for today's vote. Let's hope they haven't made idiots of themselves again. But I fear they may.
The report has a line early on Urrrm, the last upgrade of that line cost somewhere around £10 billion, (well over estimate), delivered not as much as required, and was late. Worse, it created a decade of misery for passengers on the line. I'd like to know what magic allows them to improve things further, and the answer isn't 51M. Network Rail have also priced many of the alternative schemes and found them lacking (links available on request if you are having trouble sleeping).
There's also a section in the report titled "The Doncaster Syndrome", asking why that town has not benefited from having good links to London for decades. The obvious answer is to look towards their MPs, including a certain Ed Miliband... http://www.iea.org.uk/sites/default/files/in-the-media/files/CCP_HS2_web.pdf
"This Euro-parliament is a failed experiment. Every election, it arouses less and less interest in the people of Europe. Every time we stage this farce, the turn-out goes down.
With every year of its existence, the Euro-parliament deepens the general suspicion of the public – that the EU is a racket, and that the MEPs are on a gigantic boondoggle."
I have never used the word "boondoggle" but I have been expressing these views on here for long enough. The European Parliament is not only an expensive failure but a major part of the problem in the perception of the EU itself. There is something more than slightly ironic that the main beneficiaries of this farce are a party that apparently wants us to leave the EU altogether. One might speculate about how UKIP would fund itself if it was not ripping off the EU taxpayer.
A representative Parliament with representatives from each of the elected Parliaments of the EU would be a much better organisation. It might even give Scottish back bench MPs something to do in the event of devomax.
You were joking right ?
There's also a section in the report titled "The Doncaster Syndrome", asking why that town has not benefited from having good links to London for decades. The obvious answer is to look towards their MPs, including a certain Ed Miliband... http://www.iea.org.uk/sites/default/files/in-the-media/files/CCP_HS2_web.pdf
Have they decided to build HS2 from the North downwards now ?
Or is is still a London-Birmingham commuter line that's to be built ?
Anyone got any £50 notes under their mattress? If so, spend 'em soon:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-magazine-monitor-27143459
I wish ...
Have they decided to build HS2 from the North downwards now ?
Or is is still a London-Birmingham commuter line that's to be built ?
The plan is to build both phases, but staggered. That has not changed as far as I'm aware.
The latest detail change was to extend the first phase from Birmingham to link up to the WCML near Crewe (which was planned for phase 2). This will allow fast through services from the northwest to run earlier.
There are problems with building both phases at once in terms of skilled manpower and equipment - it may end up more expensive. And building from the north first is also problematic, especially as it does not address the biggest capacity issue.
Re voting intentions, must be some who wondered how it would be possible for the EU to get involved with the removal of some governments in Greece and Italy due to fiscal incontinence.
I've been rather busy these last few days so might have missed that 'statistical rigour' you were going to impress us all with regarding the productivity issue.
You haven't forgotten have you ?
;-)
Doubtless our friend Avery was in ecstasies about the 2014Q1 retail sales reaching yet another all time high.
The ONS provides further data as to where recession and 'austerity' have occurred:
Retail Sales 2014Q1 change from:
2008Q1 +6%
2004Q1 +18%
1999Q4 +47%
1989Q1 +79%
Industrial Production 2014Q1 change from:
2008Q1 -11%
2004Q1 -12%
1999Q4 -14%
1989Q1 -2%
And what is funding the difference:
Government Debt
2014Q1 £1,269bn
2008Q1 £538bn
2004Q1 £394bn
1999Q4 £360bn
1989Q1 £154bn
With retail sales at record levels, house prices soaring, household borrowing rising again and 'the news getting better and better' as we're told here isn't it time that the government started to 'mend the roof while the sun was shining'.
Or are we going to hit the next recession with over £1.5bn government debt and interest rates still at a 'temporary, emergency' 0.5%.
http://www.thepaperboy.com/uk/front-pages.cfm
Labour: the real nasty party.
Or is is still a London-Birmingham commuter line that's to be built ?
The plan is to build both phases, but staggered. That has not changed as far as I'm aware.
The latest detail change was to extend the first phase from Birmingham to link up to the WCML near Crewe (which was planned for phase 2). This will allow fast through services from the northwest to run earlier.
There are problems with building both phases at once in terms of skilled manpower and equipment - it may end up more expensive. And building from the north first is also problematic, especially as it does not address the biggest capacity issue.
So endless excuses why a project supposed to be for the benefit of northern England actually needs to be built so as to benefit London first.
In a few years you're likely to realise you've been made a fool of when the line north of Birmingham is 'postponed' because of cost overruns and the money thus 'saved' is used instead on a 'more urgent' Crossrail 2.
Asked about Mr Putin, Mr Salmond said: "Well, obviously, I don't approve of a range of Russian actions, but I think Putin's more effective than the press he gets I would have thought, and you can see why he carries support in Russia."
Pressed on whether he admires the Russian leader, the First Minister said: "Certain aspects. He's restored a substantial part of Russian pride and that must be a good thing. There are aspects of Russian constitutionality and the inter-mesh with business and politics that are obviously difficult to admire. Russians are fantastic people, incidentally, they are lovely people."
http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/salmond-ive-got-some-admiration-for-putin.1398664246
The latest detail change was to extend the first phase from Birmingham to link up to the WCML near Crewe (which was planned for phase 2). This will allow fast through services from the northwest to run earlier.
There are problems with building both phases at once in terms of skilled manpower and equipment - it may end up more expensive. And building from the north first is also problematic, especially as it does not address the biggest capacity issue.
So endless excuses why a project supposed to be for the benefit of northern England actually needs to be built so as to benefit London first.
In a few years you're likely to realise you've been made a fool of when the line north of Birmingham is 'postponed' because of cost overruns and the money thus 'saved' is used instead on a 'more urgent' Crossrail 2.
Not endless excuses at all: they're quite short and pithy. What are your counter-arguments?
I may or may not have been made a fool of in a few years. However at least I've looked at the project at various levels and come to my own conclusions.
I didn't write the Wikipedia page so can't speak for that, but I've never made a secret of it and discussed it on my blog which goes to 4000 homes. These days most people treat past communist views with mild curiosity, as if you said you used to be a Mormon or a hippy, possibly because most people over 60 have had some off-beat ideas at one time or another. I talked about my general outlook in most detail some years ago in what was probably my most-read blog entry as people still refer back to it:
https://groups.yahoo.com/neo/groups/BroxtoweMP/conversations/messages/472
"A spokesman for the First Minster said the interview was conducted before the annexation of the Crimea, adding: "Since then, the Scottish Government has made our position abundantly clear on the illegal annexation, including the decision to withdraw the invitation to the Russian Consul General to the annual Scottish Consular Corps dinner.""
Flip flop Eck, as usual.
I would have thought you would have remembered. I mean, you can't have been proud of it?
In a few years you're likely to realise you've been made a fool of when the line north of Birmingham is 'postponed' because of cost overruns and the money thus 'saved' is used instead on a 'more urgent' Crossrail 2.
Not endless excuses at all: they're quite short and pithy. What are your counter-arguments?
I may or may not have been made a fool of in a few years. However at least I've looked at the project at various levels and come to my own conclusions.
Simple, London lying as usual , they will build the first part to benefit London, using money from the north and Scotland and it will never go beyond Birmingham.
There will be some good reason why they need more money for London rather than extending it beyond Birmingham.
So many of them must be former Labour voters, who once they switch may not switch as easily as the optimists think - another characteristic of old age.
And yes, having voted for a trading group, they now find the EU a political group too.
Even if many switch back at the GE, I suspect some of the "PC" stuff is an annoyance. When you're old, you can say what you like without worrying so much about word usage changing. A few months ago, on MOTD, Alan Hansen mentioned a "coloured" player, and faced complaints. He was delivering an anti-racist comment yet still received vilification from a few regular moaners and those determined to be offended. An unscripted slip = racist,
I'm a natural centre-left voter, and Ukip has some nutters, but concerted name-calling for having an opinion does irritate me, even if I dislike the opinions. I'd rather judge people on what they do, rather than on out-of-context remarks.
Some lefty writers are very good at saying what somebody else should do or say, but are reluctant to get their own hands dirty. If these lefties look down at, for example, the work of the Sally Army because they don't approve of religion, yet they do nothing themselves to alleviate true poverty, they show their true colours.
I may vote Ukip in the Euros and go back to the LDs at the GE as the best of a bad job. And I don't care what others think about the logic of that. One advantage of old age!
I may or may not have been made a fool of in a few years. However at least I've looked at the project at various levels and come to my own conclusions.
Simple, London lying as usual , they will build the first part to benefit London, using money from the north and Scotland and it will never go beyond Birmingham.
There will be some good reason why they need more money for London rather than extending it beyond Birmingham.
I see no evidence to back up your assertion.
Is the Scottish Yes Campaign Treading Water?
(This analysis is based on comparison of the YouGov poll in September 2013 with the latest one in March 2014.)
The headline figure showed a 32 Yes 52 No move to a 37 Yes and 52 No vote which equates to a 42/58 margin excluding don’t knows and will not vote. However the main reason for the change was the increase in SNP voters who plan to vote Yes. The percentage of Yes voters who also intend to vote SNP has moved from 67% to 75%. Among the critical Labour base there has been no movement to the Yes campaign in the last 6 months.
The YouGov weighting like many other polls is based on the last Holyrood election which appears to be a high water mark for the SNP. In comparison to recent YouGov polls this may overstate the SNP base by around 10% and understate Labour by 7%, Lib Dems by 28% and Conservatives by 41%. As the SNP voters mostly intend to vote Yes and the Conservatives are the strongest No voters this requires an adjustment of at least 2% from Yes to No leading to a figure of 35% Yes and 54% No.
What do the recent by-election results show? The results have shown a switch back from SNP to Labour and a solid Conservative base. The most recent by-election in Kilmarnock, an SNP stronghold, showed the SNP vote down about 15% with Conservatives, Labour and Greens all up. Prior to this the SNP had lost 20 by elections in a row with similar vote losses. Actual elections tend to support the polls.
Behind all the headlines of a fluid and unpredictable result, instead this campaign has become more like trench warfare. The SNP have been preaching successfully to the converted but have been unable to reach out beyond their core voter base. The No campaign on the other hand has been able to make only slow progress in winning back many of the voters who defected to the SNP in the last Scottish election. The 60/40 split of unionists to nationalists remains as solid as it was 3 years ago.
The upcoming Euro Elections are a potential black swan. Latest YouGov poll showed UKIP winning 18% in Scotland and getting one of the 6 Scottish seats. While many of their voters are ex-Conservative it appears that maybe a third are traditional SNP voters. There is no love lost between UKIP and the SNP, and the rise of UKIP in Scotland threatens to open up another front that the SNP must fight on. The SNP leadership may love Europe but some of its voters don’t.
The Commonwealth games may show a large number of proud Scots and a photo opportunity for Alex Salmond. On the other hand it will be run by Glasgow’s Labour party and sportsmen / women are not keen on mixing politics and sport. Don’t see this changing many votes.
Scots are more down on the economy than the rest of the UK and Yes voters are the most gloomy. If business starts to give pay rises in the next 6 months this will be a benefit for the No Campaign. However if we have a major financial crisis in the next 6 months then that will help the Yes campaign.
Blair versus Darling. I would suggest we could have a debate between them every day for the next 6 months and nothing would change. I am surprised at the criticism of Darling. He has done his job and not made any gaffs. The Labour voter support for the union remains solid and the Labour ground troops seem motivated. If Salmond gets too involved it will upset the 25% of Yes voters who don’t vote SNP but if he does not then the Yes campaign lose one of their most canny politicians. That leaves only Cameron to lose all touch with reality and to offer to debate directly with Salmond.
There will be some good reason why they need more money for London rather than extending it beyond Birmingham.
I see no evidence to back up your assertion.
Evidence ? Too busy admiring Vlad's biceps.
There will be some good reason why they need more money for London rather than extending it beyond Birmingham.
I see no evidence to back up your assertion.
We will see in 30 or 40 years then, if you don't see a problem then it must be true and the benefits of HS2 for the North will be magnificent to behold.
Mr. G, that supposes HS2 gets off the ground at all. Labour seem to be blowing hot and cold over it.
To make it worse you posted the crap twice.
I proved the data was accurate and you were forced to grudgingly apologise.
You then accused me of lacking statistical rigour.
Without explaining where this statistical rigour was lacking or showing any statistical rigour of your own.
Sadly the conclusion that can be drawn is that you are only able to carp from the sidelines at people who do a bit of genuine, albeit minor, research of their own.
But please feel free to prove me wrong on that by displaying some statistical rigour of your own.
I will look forward to it with genuine interest - those of us here with open minds are always willing to learn something new.
Continental examples show that the benefits of high-speed rail are highest when the places served buy-in to the scheme and use it to good effect. If they do not, then the benefits will be reduced.
Which is basic common sense.
Some initial reading for you. The conclusions of the second link are particularly interesting when it comes to discussing the benefits:
http://www.jrtr.net/jrtr03/f26_ard.html
http://www.eco.uc3m.es/temp/agenda/mad2006/papers/12. Vickerman, Roger.pdf
Putin/Cameron Press Conference: Putin says volume of British investment in Russia has reached 26.7 billion dollars
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UldT9FhyAls
Ben Judah @b_judah
Britain is moving to protect the interests of the city of London from possible American sanctions on Putin money. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/03/uk-seeks-russia-harm-city-london-document?CMP=twt_gu …
Renee @ReneMcLaren Jan 12
Cameron's plea to Putin to stop Salmond. What is wrong with this picture? #indyref #runningterrified http://www.heraldscotland.com/mobile/news/home-news/camerons-plea-to-putin-help-me-stop-salmond.23138182?_=553c493b571e5c3b5cc295a67a2f3d21711c55c2 …
LOL
Always remember the PB Golden Rule.
The PB tories are always wrong. The PB tories never learn.
Meanwhile people can think what they like about your assertion of "not being as lefty as you think"
TheIndyPolitics @IndyPolitics
Maria Miller expenses scandal: Tory MP ‘says Cameron would have sacked her days ago – if she was called Mark' http://ind.pn/1qk0qvm
joncraigSKY @joncraig
Nigel Farage tells me Nadine Dorries "would be very welcome" in UKIP after quoting her "out of touch posh boys" jibe re Cameron & Osborne.
A 'Cast Iron' reality check for the amusingly obsequious Cameroons.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/96/UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png
Kippers precisely where some of us said they would be many months ago.
Another EU 'master strategy' from the chumocracy falls flat on it's face. Oops!
Really?
Almost as strange as someone saying membership and advocacy of a poisonous totalitarian political philosophy was "just a bit of fun" akin to having a few too many magic mushrooms at a student party in the '60s.
I'm putting it down to PB Monday-itis.
Tories on PB of course. Please try not to let it upset you so much that your 'request' makes me laugh just as hard as it did before.
Fop the difference.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sQ2n7oMcSi0
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IF45vlC5w_Y
*chuckles*
1) It was not 'ages ago' when I wrote the post that got you riled. You had written it seven weeks before I made my post. You continue to misrepresent what happened even as you apologise?
2) I'm not sure you should be joking about stalking, which is a serious criminal offence. Your ex-colleague Helen Jones has been running an excellent campaign about it. What other offences would you be willing to joke about?
3) Your reaction to Ann Winterton's 'joke' was to splash it all over the papers. Yet you use the 'joke' excuse when you talk about accusing me several times of a serious crime.
4) You also used the phrases 'train zealots', 'obsessive' and 'creepy'. Although some may agree with them. ;-)
5) It's not a case of finding it offensive: it is offensive. And given your position, it's a nasty thing to accuse someone of, even if you think you did it in jest.
6) I didn't see any previous apology; if I had, I would have responded.
People who know you personally on here give the impression that you are a nice, kind and thoughtful person. I believe them. But I find it hard to square with your reaction when someone has the temerity to quote your own words at you, in context.
I am sorry about posting twice as was not sure it posted first time.
I assume you are following the lead of Salmond and try to attack with bluster. Hague has just said that joining Europe may not be as easy for Scotland as Salmond says. Hague has a vote on this, unlike Salmond, but guess who knows the result best?
Liar MPs @LiarMPs 49m
I recall Tony Blair & the Labour Party saying they were going to run a government that would be 'whiter than white'! http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/tony-blair-minister-former-pms-3468050 …
Ramtoad @Ramtoad 14h
NBC’s David Gregory Slams Tony Blair Over Islamic Terrorism: Didn’t You And Bush Make It Worse? http://bit.ly/1k90yf6 @DailyCaller
I suspect that many people (not just the over 60s), may well lend their vote to UKIP in the upcoming EUROs and will revert to the more UK policy-focused parties in 2015.
And on this sunny but breezy morning, may your old age be a ripe and fruitful one.
Boris can't talk about the actual level of turnout here because the turnout in the election that elected him, at 38.1%, is substantially lower than the turnout that elected the current EU Parliament, which was 43%, and he doesn't want to call his own job a "failed experiment".
The No campaign's lead in the Poll of Polls headline figures (past updates recalculated to exclude Angus Reid) :
Sep 2013 - 21.6%
Sep 2013 - 21.4%
Sep 2013 - 19.4%
Oct 2013 - 18.8%
Oct 2013 - 18.4%
Oct 2013 - 18.2%
Nov 2013 - 18.4%
Nov 2013 - 18.0%
Dec 2013 - 17.0%
Dec 2013 - 16.8%
Dec 2013 - 16.4%
Jan 2014 - 14.4%
Jan 2014 - 14.2%
Jan 2014 - 14.2%
Jan 2014 - 15.2%
Feb 2014 - 15.0%
Feb 2014 - 15.5%
Feb 2014 - 15.5%
Feb 2014 - 13.7%
Feb 2014 - 13.3%
Feb 2014 - 14.2%
Mar 2014 - 14.2%
Mar 2014 - 14.5%
Mar 2014 - 14.5%
Mar 2014 - 14.7%
Mar 2014 - 13.8%
Mar 2014 - 13.0%
Mar 2014 - 12.5%
Apr 2014 - 12.5%
Apr 2014 - 12.7%
Apr 2014 - 12.7%
Apr 2014 - 12.3%
Apr 2014 - 11.4%
Nope.
Even Clegg's ostrich faction would be hard pushed to match the labour, tory and 'better together' complacency that thinks otherwise.
The stalemate is stuck at around 40% yes, 60% no.
"How do you stop Farage? Not by calling him a racist. Not by offering a complacent and patronising account of our EU membership, which sadly is what Nick Clegg seems to have done in those recent debates. But by exposing the flimsiness of Ukip’s arguments. And by offering a better alternative.
Which brings me on to the need for a clear, positive (“bold”) Labour programme at the next general election, rather than a narrow, nervous (“shrunken”) one. But that is a matter for another day."
http://labourlist.org/2014/04/creagh-reaffirms-labour-support-for-hs2/
I think that mid-term, economic upturn not quite kicked in personally, we're in the doldrums ahead of summer, and voilà an opportunity to say F*** You to the politicos presents itself.
BBC News - HS2: Cameron faces backbench rebellion http://bbc.in/1fGJ7QH
Who will save Cammie yet again from the wrath of his own backbenchers?
The Independent @Independent 18h
Labour to back HS2 rail-link – but will demand 'green corridor' along the route http://ind.pn/PHkoo3
Ah well, at least it wasn't Calamity Clegg this time.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-27185027
I'm nervous about this. We need a rich ecosystem of large drugs companies, not a few massive ones. But it's not my industry ...
To respond to your comments in detail, in an attempt to put the matter to bed:
Several things to say about this:
1) It was not 'ages ago' when I wrote the post that got you riled. You had written it seven weeks before I made my post. You continue to misrepresent what happened even as you apologise?
->I'm reluctant to pursue the original issue, but my recollection is that you picked up a comment expressing doubts about HS2 (not even opposition) I made on my local blog 7 weeks earlier and raised it repeatedly here. It seemed to me a bit OTT.
2) I'm not sure you should be joking about stalking, which is a serious criminal offence. Your ex-colleague Helen Jones has been running an excellent campaign about it. What other offences would you be willing to joke about?
->I didn't think anyone reading my comments will have supposed that i was actually accusing you of stalking me in the criminal sense (rather than merely in the casual sense of raising a passing comment again and again). But you clearly felt that I was, which is why I apologised - I really did not intend anything like that. I accept that you didn't see the apology - it's easy to miss comments here.
3) Your reaction to Ann Winterton's 'joke' was to splash it all over the papers. Yet you use the 'joke' excuse when you talk about accusing me several times of a serious crime.
->I didn't exactly splash it all over the papers. A journalist rang me to say they'd heard about it and was it true? I said yes and I hadn't liked it. I did feel that making a joke during a posh dinner at the expense of dead immigrants was upsetting, though Ann W and I have agreed to bury the hatchet.
4) You also used the phrases 'train zealots', 'obsessive' and 'creepy'. Although some may agree with them. ;-)
->Zealots er yes; obessive is a bit strong, and creepy does sound OTT - I don't remember saying that but I apologise for that too.
5) It's not a case of finding it offensive: it is offensive. And given your position, it's a nasty thing to accuse someone of, even if you think you did it in jest.
->Fair enough - it was not intended to be upsetting, and I'm sorry that it struck you that way.
6) I didn't see any previous apology; if I had, I would have responded.
->Also fair enough.
People who know you personally on here give the impression that you are a nice, kind and thoughtful person. I believe them. But I find it hard to square with your reaction when someone has the temerity to quote your own words at you, in context.
->People often quote my words to me - I'm not especially careful about what I say. I try to respond lightly, and I intended to in this case. It obviously didn't come across like that, so I'm sorry.
I don't actually think either of us is wicked, and we've got a bit tangled up over what was clearly an unfortunate phrase on my part.Not sure if there's anything I can usefully add, honestly, but hope you will accept my apology.
But by all means go back to ranting about the sophisticated analysis and "bluster" of "Cybernats" as you implicitly trust everything Hague says. That certainly isn't hilariously oblivious irony either.
Here's what Hague said about a certain Cast Iron Referendum Pledge.
Conservatives could hold Lisbon Treaty referendum after ratification
A Conservative government could hold a referendum on the European Union's Lisbon Treaty even if it has already been ratified, William Hague has said.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/3097376/Conservatives-could-hold-Lisbon-Treaty-referendum-after-ratification.html
Very trustworthy indeed.
Secondly, it's my understanding that the main concern in Leeds is that we won't get it and that it'll either be a southern thing (to Birmingham) or, arguably more galling, it'll go to Manchester but not Leeds.
In Egypt, where Tony Blair urges us to support the military government: 683 of its opponents just got sentenced to death.
Poor old Moniker. Her hero Blair just won't learn.
The point was that the headline figures are useless and dangerous misleading. Factors such as declining oil and gas production - which is a secular trend - can lead you to draw the wrong conclusion unless you adjust for it.
Given how busy I am with work, my private investments, my family Foundation and raising a toddler I don't have time to do the analysis myself.
In 1975 the public relied upon what they were told by the political leaders - in particular the leaders of the two main parties - and by what they were told by the media. They were lied to from start to finish.
The difference this time is that we know we were lied to. All the arguments being raised in favour of continued EU membership have to be judged against the fact that we can repeatedly tell the public they were lied to by the politicians and that they are lying again. Do you really think that in the current climate a politician is going to make much headway against that?
1) There have not been enough studies into the effects of European high-sped rail. Some studies have found it hard to divide cause and effect: what developments and traffic would have happened anyway.
2) There are many examples where it has benefited the regions. There are many others where the capitals have benefited most, and others where both benefited - it is not necessarily a zero-sum game.
3) Where councils have not brought into the project, benefits are less or negative.
4) There is an intra-regional effect. Where it does benefit a region, some of this comes from a transfer from the hinterlands towards the railway. This is a negative, and makes it even harder to understand the effects.
I'll try and dig out the report(s): I've linked to them before on here, but can't find them in my links file. But for the moment the ones I linked to above are worth a read.
Number 3) is why I spent so much time last summer trying to convince Nick about why HS2 would be a good thing. If he becomes MP again, his constituency will have a hub, and to get the most gain, people like him need to be on board. Sadly I think I rather spectacularly failed on that one ...
New Populus VI: Lab 35 (=); Cons 32 (-3); LD 10 (+1); UKIP 15 (+2); Oth 8 (=) Tables http://popu.lu/s_vi140428