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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Amidst more confusion the Iowa numbers dribble out & Buttigieg moves to a 97% chance on Betfair
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Damn. I'll be back with an FPT.....0
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Have we settled on a pronunciation yet? Butty-geeg? With two hard g sounds (as in 'great'?0
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FPT....
That Con 49%, Labour 30% poll earlier....
When were the seats last contested that come up in May? I'd assumed that local elections in May will be thirds from those elected in May 2017? Which was Con 38%, Labour 27% LibDems 18%
But I can't see those Metropolitan thirds for 2017. Did thirds only kick in later?
(2018 thirds were when the result was 35% Labour, 35% Cons,16% Libem.
2019 thirds were 28% Labour, 28% Cons, 19% Libdem.)0 -
Boot edgeCookie said:Have we settled on a pronunciation yet? Butty-geeg? With two hard g sounds (as in 'great'?
Boot edge0 -
Not all councils elect in thirds. 2017 was county elections, which are single member divisions. These will be seats last up in 2016.MarqueeMark said:FPT....
That Con 49%, Labour 30% poll earlier....
When were the seats last contested that come up in May? I'd assumed that local elections in May will be thirds from those elected in May 2017? Which was Con 38%, Labour 27% LibDems 18%
But I can't see those Metropolitan thirds for 2017. Did thirds only kick in later?
(2018 thirds were when the result was 35% Labour, 35% Cons,16% Libem.
2019 thirds were 28% Labour, 28% Cons, 19% Libdem.)0 -
Anyone watching the snooker?0
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Is Betfair determining the Iowa caucus winner based on votes or delegates?0
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I have seen Labour Party investigations into antisemitism concluded faster than this Iowa shit show.4
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What is wrong with these people?TGOHF666 said:0 -
If I may, I assume May 2017 may be the relevant date too, which was peak May bubble before May crashed in June.MarqueeMark said:FPT....
That Con 49%, Labour 30% poll earlier....
When were the seats last contested that come up in May? I'd assumed that local elections in May will be thirds from those elected in May 2017? Which was Con 38%, Labour 27% LibDems 18%
But I can't see those Metropolitan thirds for 2017. Did thirds only kick in later?
(2018 thirds were when the result was 35% Labour, 35% Cons,16% Libem.
2019 thirds were 28% Labour, 28% Cons, 19% Libdem.)1 -
Read the twitter thread - total wrong un..Gallowgate said:
What is wrong with these people?TGOHF666 said:0 -
I wasn't that impressed by Buttigieg who didn't seem to have a lot of accomplishments but the Bernie people in my twitter feed have convinced me he's a man to be reckoned with. Not only can he bring off an immense conspiracy, I like the stylish way he hid it in plain sight by calling his election-rigging company Shadow.0
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The Bernie mob do seem to have gone completely nutso over this conspiracy theory.edmundintokyo said:I wasn't that impressed by Buttigieg who didn't seem to have a lot of accomplishments but the Bernie people in my twitter feed have convinced me he's a man to be reckoned with. Not only can he bring off an immense conspiracy, I like the stylish way he hid it in plain sight by calling his election-rigging company Shadow.
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When Mayor Pete is 97% likely to win Iowa, it can only be...
... the Butti-Call!
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Answer: No, they are not between us.....TGOHF666 said:0 -
Welcome to Britain, where all the crime comes from the top.0
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This surely isn't a sustainable for the whole area...
New Silicon Valley extreme: The 2:30 a.m. tech bus from Salida
https://www.protocol.com/silicon-valley-tech-shuttles0 -
SNPae ?TheGreenMachine said:Welcome to Britain, where all the crime comes from the top.
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Huh - say what you like about Trump: his name might be a source of great hilarity to the under 7s, but at least you can pronounce it.Tim_B said:
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Budget day in Holyrood tomorrow...0
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Correction, if CBS is reliable it's "Booty-jedge"0
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Kirk Douglas has died.1
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Yes... peak may, the GE was called while the local elections were taking place. When it seemed a 200 seat majority might even happen.Philip_Thompson said:
If I may, I assume May 2017 may be the relevant date too, which was peak May bubble before May crashed in June.MarqueeMark said:FPT....
That Con 49%, Labour 30% poll earlier....
When were the seats last contested that come up in May? I'd assumed that local elections in May will be thirds from those elected in May 2017? Which was Con 38%, Labour 27% LibDems 18%
But I can't see those Metropolitan thirds for 2017. Did thirds only kick in later?
(2018 thirds were when the result was 35% Labour, 35% Cons,16% Libem.
2019 thirds were 28% Labour, 28% Cons, 19% Libdem.)0 -
A 1h30 commute? Not unheard of in the USA, rich or poor. As the article notes, local housing costs and wage are half what you get by bussing it in to that early shift.FrancisUrquhart said:This surely isn't a sustainable for the whole area...
New Silicon Valley extreme: The 2:30 a.m. tech bus from Salida
https://www.protocol.com/silicon-valley-tech-shuttles
It is notable that the people who have taken this option, portrayed as victims of Bay Area NIMBY, themselves believe too much housing is now being built in their new home towns, to serve other people who have had the same ideas that they had.0 -
“I’m Spartacus”FrancisUrquhart said:Kirk Douglas has died.
;(0 -
Just wait till California. Oh, and Florida.FrancisUrquhart said:I have seen Labour Party investigations into antisemitism concluded faster than this Iowa shit show.
I wonder how movable the convention is? Would be deeply embarrassing if not all the delegates have actually been agreed upon in time.0 -
I am SeanT Spartacus!FrancisUrquhart said:Kirk Douglas has died.
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Can someone explain how the hell this absolute fruitcake was Speaker of HoC for a decade?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=POqBMqi1k_E1 -
Is there any point in putting a small bet on Bernie at 20/1?0
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What an absolute beeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeep.....Lets hope the new speaker continues to be more Betty than Bell-End.GIN1138 said:Can someone explain how the hell this absolute fruitcake was Speaker of HoC for a decade?
www.youtube.com/watch?v=POqBMqi1k_E0 -
Haven't you heard the DNC and the deep state establishment are fixing the primaries to ensure he won't be on the ticket. At least that's what twitter / some of the more whacky lefty YouTubers are saying.Andy_JS said:Is there any point in putting a small bet on Bernie at 20/1?
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One of the greatest, you'll be sadly missed.1 -
I think 16 is too young an age of consent when it's irregardless of the age of the other party. I think it should be staggered to prevent grooming.TGOHF666 said:0 -
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And also cannot pronounce "Daniel Craig": they consistently pronounce it as "Daniel Creg".Gabs3 said:0 -
Will Mr Mackay present the budget tomorrow ?
Next SNP leader market just got blown wide open - if only there was one..0 -
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Will be good to see Clarke in ermine.CarlottaVance said:
But where's our JohnO's hereditary dukedom?0 -
Also he has nominated Ruth Davidson (not exactly best of buddies with Boris), Iain Austin and John Woodcock.CarlottaVance said:(Half) Hooray!
twitter.com/BBCNews/status/1225208772534177792?s=201 -
How about this as an idea for the BBC:
(a) Reduce the licence fee to around £50 (from £154).
(b) Put commercial adverts on prime time BBC1 programmes.0 -
Clarke and Ruth : yes.
Hammond ? Why ?0 -
Was when I checked...Silly me! I followed the link from his Twitter Profile - which clearly hasn't been updated.MJW said:
https://twitter.com/DerekMackaySNP0 -
It's a reason to think Elizabeth Warren might get the VP spot. They're going to have to give the left something, and nobody can work with Bernie. More so if the race makes it to the convention and they need to buy her off.FrancisUrquhart said:
The Bernie mob do seem to have gone completely nutso over this conspiracy theory.edmundintokyo said:I wasn't that impressed by Buttigieg who didn't seem to have a lot of accomplishments but the Bernie people in my twitter feed have convinced me he's a man to be reckoned with. Not only can he bring off an immense conspiracy, I like the stylish way he hid it in plain sight by calling his election-rigging company Shadow.
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It is generally convention that former chancellor gets it. And unlike Bercow, I don't think there are any suggestions that boring Brian liked to go around bullying staff.TGOHF666 said:Clarke and Ruth : yes.
Hammond ? Why ?0 -
The thing is, he didn't actually do anything physical and he's a MP, therefore not much will happen he'll give the child a few thousand or something..0
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But don't the Bernie mob dislike Warren though? As they see her as a faker and not genuine on many of the issues that matter to them. One of the big reasons many of them love Bernie is the fact, like Jezza, that he basically hasn't changed his views on anything for 50 years.edmundintokyo said:
It's a reason to think Elizabeth Warren might get the VP spot. They're going to have to give the left something, and nobody can work with Bernie. More so if the race makes it to the convention and they need to buy her off.FrancisUrquhart said:
The Bernie mob do seem to have gone completely nutso over this conspiracy theory.edmundintokyo said:I wasn't that impressed by Buttigieg who didn't seem to have a lot of accomplishments but the Bernie people in my twitter feed have convinced me he's a man to be reckoned with. Not only can he bring off an immense conspiracy, I like the stylish way he hid it in plain sight by calling his election-rigging company Shadow.
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State Delegate Equivalents.Andy_JS said:Is Betfair determining the Iowa caucus winner based on votes or delegates?
Which is why Buttigieg was always in with a good shout. He flooded the rural areas with workers, while Sanders worked on maximizing his turnout at the University of Iowa.1 -
That seems like the worst of both worlds. Still an mandatory telly tax, the BBC will claim even with ads it is no where near enough to sustain quality / programmes that wouldn't be commercially viable / yadda yadda yadda, and also remember that licence fee also ends up with other outlets not just the BBC tv.Andy_JS said:How about this as an idea for the BBC:
(a) Reduce the licence fee to around £50 (from £154).
(b) Put commercial adverts on prime time BBC1 programmes.
The reality is that a) the telly tax is now totally unenforceable and b) the way especially the young consume media doesn't revolve around the live telly or radio.0 -
How about get rid of the BBC (for television), except as a commissioning mechanism for programs - history or art or science-related - that might not otherwise get made.Andy_JS said:How about this as an idea for the BBC:
(a) Reduce the licence fee to around £50 (from £154).
(b) Put commercial adverts on prime time BBC1 programmes.
This wouldn't have to cost the taxpayer anything, because it could be entirely funded by the sale of existing BBC intellectual property.
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I sort of agree, but it's possibly the only way to avoid the BBC becoming a subscription-only service — which may well be the best solution. I was just trying to think of alternatives.FrancisUrquhart said:
That seems like the worst of both worlds. Still an mandatory telly tax, the BBC will claim even with ads it is no where near enough to sustain quality / programmes that wouldn't be commercially viable / yadda yadda yadda, and also remember that licence fee also ends up with other outlets not just the BBC tv.Andy_JS said:How about this as an idea for the BBC:
(a) Reduce the licence fee to around £50 (from £154).
(b) Put commercial adverts on prime time BBC1 programmes.0 -
I think he'll be sacked pretty soon. His career in politics is over.TheGreenMachine said:The thing is, he didn't actually do anything physical and he's a MP, therefore not much will happen he'll give the child a few thousand or something..
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Isn't "grooming" an offence?TheGreenMachine said:The thing is, he didn't actually do anything physical and he's a MP, therefore not much will happen he'll give the child a few thousand or something..
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The reality is that a) the telly tax is now totally unenforceable and b) the way especially the young consume media doesn't revolve around the live telly or radio.Andy_JS said:
I sort of agree, but it's possibly the only way to avoid the BBC becoming a subscription-only service — which may well be the best solution. I was just trying to think of alternatives.FrancisUrquhart said:
That seems like the worst of both worlds. Still an mandatory telly tax, the BBC will claim even with ads it is no where near enough to sustain quality / programmes that wouldn't be commercially viable / yadda yadda yadda, and also remember that licence fee also ends up with other outlets not just the BBC tv.Andy_JS said:How about this as an idea for the BBC:
(a) Reduce the licence fee to around £50 (from £154).
(b) Put commercial adverts on prime time BBC1 programmes.
The big problem the BBC has is that the likes of YouTube is the go to outlet for the youngsters and Netflix for young adults. And for example the likes of BBC Three YouTube channel does absolutely appalling numbers compared to most successful / popular channels on that platform, shows they don't really have much appeal to those using the YouTube platform i.e. the next generation.0 -
Yes, the core of Bernie's support hate everyone except Bernie, Cenk Uygur and Michael Moore. But there aren't that many of them, the problem is that they influence a broader group on the left.FrancisUrquhart said:
But don't the Bernie mob dislike Warren though? As they see her as a faker and not genuine on many of the issues that matter to them. One of the big reasons many of them love Bernie is the fact, like Jezza, that he basically hasn't changed his views on anything for 50 years.edmundintokyo said:
It's a reason to think Elizabeth Warren might get the VP spot. They're going to have to give the left something, and nobody can work with Bernie. More so if the race makes it to the convention and they need to buy her off.FrancisUrquhart said:
The Bernie mob do seem to have gone completely nutso over this conspiracy theory.edmundintokyo said:I wasn't that impressed by Buttigieg who didn't seem to have a lot of accomplishments but the Bernie people in my twitter feed have convinced me he's a man to be reckoned with. Not only can he bring off an immense conspiracy, I like the stylish way he hid it in plain sight by calling his election-rigging company Shadow.
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From Slate:
As of Wednesday morning, Buttigieg was winning 60 of Iowa’s 99 counties. Sanders had 18 counties. Biden had seven.
Buttigieg did well in nearly every demographic. He was the first choice among women and the second (behind Sanders) among men. He was the first choice among people ages 45 to 64, the second choice among those ages 30 to 44, and—contrary to expectations—the second choice among those ages 17 to 29. He came in first among caucusgoers who had college degrees and second among those who didn’t. He also performed better than expected among nonwhites. Sanders won that constituency easily, but Buttigieg, at 15 percent, led the pack of candidates who trailed behind.
On issue after issue, Buttigieg was either the favorite or second favorite candidate. Among caucusgoers who cared most about health care, he tied for the lead with Sanders. Among those who cared most about foreign policy, he came in second to Biden. Among those who focused on electability, he tied for the lead, drawing 24 percent to Biden’s 23 percent. Sanders got 31 percent of first-time caucusgoers, but Buttigieg was next with 25 percent. In precincts where supporters of marginal candidates had to disband and move to a second choice, the candidate they chose—twice as often as any other candidate—was Buttigieg. He won by being broadly acceptable.0 -
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If Bloomberg got the nomination, I think you could probably power the US national grid for the next 4 years on the amount of heat they would produce from all their outrage.edmundintokyo said:
Yes, the core of Bernie's support hate everyone except Bernie, Cenk Uygur and Michael Moore. But there aren't that many of them, the problem is that they influence a broader group on the left.FrancisUrquhart said:
But don't the Bernie mob dislike Warren though? As they see her as a faker and not genuine on many of the issues that matter to them. One of the big reasons many of them love Bernie is the fact, like Jezza, that he basically hasn't changed his views on anything for 50 years.edmundintokyo said:
It's a reason to think Elizabeth Warren might get the VP spot. They're going to have to give the left something, and nobody can work with Bernie. More so if the race makes it to the convention and they need to buy her off.FrancisUrquhart said:
The Bernie mob do seem to have gone completely nutso over this conspiracy theory.edmundintokyo said:I wasn't that impressed by Buttigieg who didn't seem to have a lot of accomplishments but the Bernie people in my twitter feed have convinced me he's a man to be reckoned with. Not only can he bring off an immense conspiracy, I like the stylish way he hid it in plain sight by calling his election-rigging company Shadow.
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Yes, death of an icon no doubtTheGreenMachine said:
One of the greatest, you'll be sadly missed.1 -
Should keep Sturgeon busy for a but dealing with the falloutCarlottaVance said:Even the CyberNats are worried:
https://twitter.com/DeesideCybernat/status/1225213813999443969?s=200 -
Gordon Brown endured by seeing off potential successors.HYUFD said:
Should keep Sturgeon busy for a but dealing with the falloutCarlottaVance said:Even the CyberNats are worried:
https://twitter.com/DeesideCybernat/status/1225213813999443969?s=20
The void behind Sturgeon just got bigger.1 -
Some reaction to Mitt Romney's decision to vote with the unsuccessful Senate attempt to convict Trump today
https://twitter.com/TheDailyShow/status/1225215277811617792?s=20
https://twitter.com/Scaramucci/status/1225212756342845441?s=20
https://twitter.com/LouDobbs/status/1225213956089884674?s=20
https://twitter.com/newtgingrich/status/1225145923464040448?s=200 -
You clearly didn't read my comment.CarlottaVance said:
Isn't "grooming" an offence?TheGreenMachine said:The thing is, he didn't actually do anything physical and he's a MP, therefore not much will happen he'll give the child a few thousand or something..
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Up to a point, Lord Copper
It's a budget, but not as we know it. Derek Mackay will get to his feet on Thursday afternoon, with a lot of pencilling, and the hope of ink next month.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-513947480 -
Eh ? This isn’t the Catholic Church - This is career ending.TheGreenMachine said:The thing is, he didn't actually do anything physical and he's a MP, therefore not much will happen he'll give the child a few thousand or something..
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BBC licence is a scam. They need to abolish it.2
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Is that an insult to Catholic church?TGOHF666 said:
Eh ? This isn’t the Catholic Church - This is career ending.TheGreenMachine said:The thing is, he didn't actually do anything physical and he's a MP, therefore not much will happen he'll give the child a few thousand or something..
Make sure they don't see you typing that.1 -
AOC, Rashida Tlaib, and the other new far left Democrat reps?edmundintokyo said:
Yes, the core of Bernie's support hate everyone except Bernie, Cenk Uygur and Michael Moore. But there aren't that many of them, the problem is that they influence a broader group on the left.FrancisUrquhart said:
But don't the Bernie mob dislike Warren though? As they see her as a faker and not genuine on many of the issues that matter to them. One of the big reasons many of them love Bernie is the fact, like Jezza, that he basically hasn't changed his views on anything for 50 years.edmundintokyo said:
It's a reason to think Elizabeth Warren might get the VP spot. They're going to have to give the left something, and nobody can work with Bernie. More so if the race makes it to the convention and they need to buy her off.FrancisUrquhart said:
The Bernie mob do seem to have gone completely nutso over this conspiracy theory.edmundintokyo said:I wasn't that impressed by Buttigieg who didn't seem to have a lot of accomplishments but the Bernie people in my twitter feed have convinced me he's a man to be reckoned with. Not only can he bring off an immense conspiracy, I like the stylish way he hid it in plain sight by calling his election-rigging company Shadow.
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He was the future, once.
So the battle to be the next leader of the party will not just be about who appears the pre-eminent candidate. It will also be about differing views on policy, positioning and strategy. Alternative approaches will be advanced and debated, in public — the SNP will show its workings. There are likely to be fall-outs and rows.
The current leadership’s favoured successor is said to be Derek Mackay, the Finance Secretary at Holyrood. Mackay is wily, able and energetic, and has overseen progressive changes to the Scottish tax system in recent years. He may, however, be seen as too close to Sturgeon.
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2019/09/who-will-succeed-nicola-sturgeon-snp-leader0 -
You think this is consequence-free for Mackay?TheGreenMachine said:
You clearly didn't read my comment.CarlottaVance said:
Isn't "grooming" an offence?TheGreenMachine said:The thing is, he didn't actually do anything physical and he's a MP, therefore not much will happen he'll give the child a few thousand or something..
"not much will happen"0 -
Mitt Romney. Respect.0
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538 have updated their forecast with Sanders storming ahead:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast0 -
I usually strongly prefer cock-up over conspiracy, but the Iowa Democratic Party don’t seem to be doing much to reassure me
https://twitter.com/lib_crusher/status/12251673516177121281 -
It's a TV Poll Tax.TheGreenMachine said:BBC licence is a scam. They need to abolish it.
No one is arrested for not paying a Sky sub or Netflix.0 -
You can't watch those without an account though.Sunil_Prasannan said:
It's a TV Poll Tax.TheGreenMachine said:BBC licence is a scam. They need to abolish it.
No one is arrested for not paying a Sky sub or Netflix.0 -
Yes, but you're not arrested for not paying, silly!RobD said:
You can't watch those without an account though.Sunil_Prasannan said:
It's a TV Poll Tax.TheGreenMachine said:BBC licence is a scam. They need to abolish it.
No one is arrested for not paying a Sky sub or Netflix.0 -
Courier profile of Derek MacKay;
https://www.thecourier.co.uk/fp/news/politics/scottish-politics/1124587/profile-ahead-of-his-scottish-budget-we-ask-is-the-snps-finance-chief-derek-mackay-the-real-deal/
And not long after...
The Scottish Government’s budget has been thrown into chaos after the Finance Secretary was rocked by serious allegations.
https://www.thecourier.co.uk/fp/news/politics/scottish-politics/1125748/scottish-politics-rocked-by-derek-mackay-text-message-allegations-ahead-of-budget-announcement/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter0 -
With 92% in Buttigieg's lead with SDE's is down to 0.9%.
https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/state/iowa
I'm uncalling it on SDE's.
It's just getting to close with all these reports about tabulating errors to say that Buttigieg has won the SDE's right now.
It's like Florida in 2000 but at the start of a Presidential Race not the End of it.
Anyway it's not the first time that the wrong Winner could be announced, in 2012 it was Santorum that won the corrected count instead of Romney who was initially declared the winner.0 -
And I'm still seeing tabulating errors in Iowa myself, like in Emmet County Steyer is getting 10%.
I have to uncall Iowa Sate Delegates for Buttigieg, his lead is down to less than 1% with all this uncertainty about the results.0 -
^^^
Especially as the satellite caucuses have begun reporting, and they're generally going heavily Sanders with zip forBoot Edge EdgeMayor Pete.0 -
Yep.brokenwheel said:^^^
Especially as the satellite caucuses have begun reporting, and they're generally going heavily Sanders with zip forBoot Edge EdgeMayor Pete.
The TV Networks are catching up on it too:
https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1225242125144596480
There is the possibility now that Sanders may win the Iowa State Delegates by a margin of 3 Delegates.
That's why I uncalled it.0 -
Fair pointEndillion said:
AOC, Rashida Tlaib, and the other new far left Democrat reps?edmundintokyo said:
Yes, the core of Bernie's support hate everyone except Bernie, Cenk Uygur and Michael Moore. But there aren't that many of them, the problem is that they influence a broader group on the left.FrancisUrquhart said:
But don't the Bernie mob dislike Warren though? As they see her as a faker and not genuine on many of the issues that matter to them. One of the big reasons many of them love Bernie is the fact, like Jezza, that he basically hasn't changed his views on anything for 50 years.edmundintokyo said:
It's a reason to think Elizabeth Warren might get the VP spot. They're going to have to give the left something, and nobody can work with Bernie. More so if the race makes it to the convention and they need to buy her off.FrancisUrquhart said:
The Bernie mob do seem to have gone completely nutso over this conspiracy theory.edmundintokyo said:I wasn't that impressed by Buttigieg who didn't seem to have a lot of accomplishments but the Bernie people in my twitter feed have convinced me he's a man to be reckoned with. Not only can he bring off an immense conspiracy, I like the stylish way he hid it in plain sight by calling his election-rigging company Shadow.
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Prince Andrew was / is.CarlottaVance said:
You think this is consequence-free for Mackay?TheGreenMachine said:
You clearly didn't read my comment.CarlottaVance said:
Isn't "grooming" an offence?TheGreenMachine said:The thing is, he didn't actually do anything physical and he's a MP, therefore not much will happen he'll give the child a few thousand or something..
"not much will happen"0 -
Whataboutery.....to confirm, you think "not much will happen" to Mackay?TheGreenMachine said:
Prince Andrew was / is.CarlottaVance said:
You think this is consequence-free for Mackay?TheGreenMachine said:
You clearly didn't read my comment.CarlottaVance said:
Isn't "grooming" an offence?TheGreenMachine said:The thing is, he didn't actually do anything physical and he's a MP, therefore not much will happen he'll give the child a few thousand or something..
"not much will happen"0 -
Good pull together on Coronavirus:
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf60 -
I know but anyone who has sky or Netflix should have their head's checked, both complete nonsense.Sunil_Prasannan said:
It's a TV Poll Tax.TheGreenMachine said:BBC licence is a scam. They need to abolish it.
No one is arrested for not paying a Sky sub or Netflix.0
