politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Amidst more confusion the Iowa numbers dribble out & Buttigieg moves to a 97% chance on Betfair
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That Con 49%, Labour 30% poll earlier....
When were the seats last contested that come up in May? I'd assumed that local elections in May will be thirds from those elected in May 2017? Which was Con 38%, Labour 27% LibDems 18%
But I can't see those Metropolitan thirds for 2017. Did thirds only kick in later?
(2018 thirds were when the result was 35% Labour, 35% Cons,16% Libem.
2019 thirds were 28% Labour, 28% Cons, 19% Libdem.)
Boot edge
... the Butti-Call!
https://twitter.com/chrismusson/status/1225195776835493888?s=21
New Silicon Valley extreme: The 2:30 a.m. tech bus from Salida
https://www.protocol.com/silicon-valley-tech-shuttles
It is notable that the people who have taken this option, portrayed as victims of Bay Area NIMBY, themselves believe too much housing is now being built in their new home towns, to serve other people who have had the same ideas that they had.
;(
I wonder how movable the convention is? Would be deeply embarrassing if not all the delegates have actually been agreed upon in time.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=POqBMqi1k_E
One of the greatest, you'll be sadly missed.
https://downforeveryoneorjustme.com/derekmackaysnp.org
http://www.derekmackaymsp.org/
Next SNP leader market just got blown wide open - if only there was one..
https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/1225208772534177792?s=20
Also Ruth.....
But where's our JohnO's hereditary dukedom?
(a) Reduce the licence fee to around £50 (from £154).
(b) Put commercial adverts on prime time BBC1 programmes.
Hammond ? Why ?
https://twitter.com/DerekMackaySNP
Which is why Buttigieg was always in with a good shout. He flooded the rural areas with workers, while Sanders worked on maximizing his turnout at the University of Iowa.
The reality is that a) the telly tax is now totally unenforceable and b) the way especially the young consume media doesn't revolve around the live telly or radio.
This wouldn't have to cost the taxpayer anything, because it could be entirely funded by the sale of existing BBC intellectual property.
The big problem the BBC has is that the likes of YouTube is the go to outlet for the youngsters and Netflix for young adults. And for example the likes of BBC Three YouTube channel does absolutely appalling numbers compared to most successful / popular channels on that platform, shows they don't really have much appeal to those using the YouTube platform i.e. the next generation.
As of Wednesday morning, Buttigieg was winning 60 of Iowa’s 99 counties. Sanders had 18 counties. Biden had seven.
Buttigieg did well in nearly every demographic. He was the first choice among women and the second (behind Sanders) among men. He was the first choice among people ages 45 to 64, the second choice among those ages 30 to 44, and—contrary to expectations—the second choice among those ages 17 to 29. He came in first among caucusgoers who had college degrees and second among those who didn’t. He also performed better than expected among nonwhites. Sanders won that constituency easily, but Buttigieg, at 15 percent, led the pack of candidates who trailed behind.
On issue after issue, Buttigieg was either the favorite or second favorite candidate. Among caucusgoers who cared most about health care, he tied for the lead with Sanders. Among those who cared most about foreign policy, he came in second to Biden. Among those who focused on electability, he tied for the lead, drawing 24 percent to Biden’s 23 percent. Sanders got 31 percent of first-time caucusgoers, but Buttigieg was next with 25 percent. In precincts where supporters of marginal candidates had to disband and move to a second choice, the candidate they chose—twice as often as any other candidate—was Buttigieg. He won by being broadly acceptable.
https://twitter.com/DeesideCybernat/status/1225213813999443969?s=20
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1225182802624294915?s=20
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1225181037262708736?s=20
The void behind Sturgeon just got bigger.
https://twitter.com/TheDailyShow/status/1225215277811617792?s=20
https://twitter.com/Scaramucci/status/1225212756342845441?s=20
https://twitter.com/LouDobbs/status/1225213956089884674?s=20
https://twitter.com/newtgingrich/status/1225145923464040448?s=20
It's a budget, but not as we know it. Derek Mackay will get to his feet on Thursday afternoon, with a lot of pencilling, and the hope of ink next month.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-51394748
Make sure they don't see you typing that.
So the battle to be the next leader of the party will not just be about who appears the pre-eminent candidate. It will also be about differing views on policy, positioning and strategy. Alternative approaches will be advanced and debated, in public — the SNP will show its workings. There are likely to be fall-outs and rows.
The current leadership’s favoured successor is said to be Derek Mackay, the Finance Secretary at Holyrood. Mackay is wily, able and energetic, and has overseen progressive changes to the Scottish tax system in recent years. He may, however, be seen as too close to Sturgeon.
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2019/09/who-will-succeed-nicola-sturgeon-snp-leader
"not much will happen"
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast
https://twitter.com/lib_crusher/status/1225167351617712128
No one is arrested for not paying a Sky sub or Netflix.
https://www.thecourier.co.uk/fp/news/politics/scottish-politics/1124587/profile-ahead-of-his-scottish-budget-we-ask-is-the-snps-finance-chief-derek-mackay-the-real-deal/
And not long after...
The Scottish Government’s budget has been thrown into chaos after the Finance Secretary was rocked by serious allegations.
https://www.thecourier.co.uk/fp/news/politics/scottish-politics/1125748/scottish-politics-rocked-by-derek-mackay-text-message-allegations-ahead-of-budget-announcement/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/state/iowa
I'm uncalling it on SDE's.
It's just getting to close with all these reports about tabulating errors to say that Buttigieg has won the SDE's right now.
It's like Florida in 2000 but at the start of a Presidential Race not the End of it.
Anyway it's not the first time that the wrong Winner could be announced, in 2012 it was Santorum that won the corrected count instead of Romney who was initially declared the winner.
I have to uncall Iowa Sate Delegates for Buttigieg, his lead is down to less than 1% with all this uncertainty about the results.
Especially as the satellite caucuses have begun reporting, and they're generally going heavily Sanders with zip for
Boot Edge EdgeMayor Pete.The TV Networks are catching up on it too:
https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1225242125144596480
There is the possibility now that Sanders may win the Iowa State Delegates by a margin of 3 Delegates.
That's why I uncalled it.
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6