politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Starmer juggernaut storms on and he’s now a 78% chance on
Comments
-
No it is utter bollox, one a balloon ( though a lucky politician ) and of the other two one is not a politician and the other has resigned ( and is a piss poor politician ).Stark_Dawning said:
Am I missing something, or is that the most pointless political poll in the history of everything everywhere?Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky poll.
Boris at 52% approval, Farage 30% Corbyn 17%0 -
Wasn't there a story about the owner of the Telegraph (or some such) asking his City Editor what he'd meant by the term mortgage in one of his columns, and being horrified to realise most of his staff were in debt?squareroot2 said:
Ask Boris, you gotta be joking!!. WE need to run our economy the same way we SHOULD run our finances... I never run my finances in defecit*** (I was for a short while when my wife died.) If I have a problem, I cut back till its resolved, spending money like Brown and what Corbyn WANTED TO DO are never the answer..DecrepiterJohnL said:
Austerity, pace Osborne, was misguided. Even if it might have worked in isolation, which is questionable, it faced Germany forcing the same mistakes onto the Eurozone, ruling out any hope of an export boom across the Channel. Austerity was wrong. Osborne was wrong. Ask Boris.squareroot2 said:Wonderful how the left blame Osborne for Brown's failure. even Darling wouldn't do that, he'd put the blame where it really lies, on the shoulders of the idiotic Brown.
Osborne was right to oppose Mrs May who turned out to be a disastrous leader of the Tory Party, That's why he was sacked, not for his policies.0 -
Most of the polls in Iowa have always been pretty crap, I think because of the exceptional use of caucuses. They were probably a bit crappier than usual this year because the poll that tried to get under the skin of the caucus system and therefore had the best reputation (Des Moines Register) was discovered to have flaws and was pulled.MikeSmithson said:https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1224820662071709696
The polls in Iowa were crap
Even then, they don't seem to have been quite as far out as you are implying, if the final week only is the focus. Buttigieg was understated and Biden overstated but Sanders, Warren and Klobuchar seem to be in the right ball park and Sanders does seem to have just about prevailed in the aggregate vote (not the SDEs) which is what the polls were predicting. The weakening of Biden's position was also detected - none of the final week polls had him ahead, in contrast to earlier weeks.
So I don't think you can damn the usefulness of future primary polls on the back of what we think has happened in the Iowa caucuses [EDIT: Not that your comment actually said that we should.]0 -
Not too bright is she, can she read even. Boris really is an ignorant lying sack of shit.Theuniondivvie said:0 -
I've heard that story applied to Elton John. Whi was so horrified that he then paid off all his staff's mortgages. Its a nice story, but may well be apocryphal - particularly if it is flapping around applying itself to other targets.DecrepiterJohnL said:
Wasn't there a story about the owner of the Telegraph (or some such) asking his City Editor what he'd meant by the term mortgage in one of his columns, and being horrified to realise most of his staff were in debt?squareroot2 said:
Ask Boris, you gotta be joking!!. WE need to run our economy the same way we SHOULD run our finances... I never run my finances in defecit*** (I was for a short while when my wife died.) If I have a problem, I cut back till its resolved, spending money like Brown and what Corbyn WANTED TO DO are never the answer..DecrepiterJohnL said:
Austerity, pace Osborne, was misguided. Even if it might have worked in isolation, which is questionable, it faced Germany forcing the same mistakes onto the Eurozone, ruling out any hope of an export boom across the Channel. Austerity was wrong. Osborne was wrong. Ask Boris.squareroot2 said:Wonderful how the left blame Osborne for Brown's failure. even Darling wouldn't do that, he'd put the blame where it really lies, on the shoulders of the idiotic Brown.
Osborne was right to oppose Mrs May who turned out to be a disastrous leader of the Tory Party, That's why he was sacked, not for his policies.1 -
Whatever happened to Scott TwitterDecrepiterJohnL said:
It would be nice if the Twitter links were not automatically expanded, especially more than once.Gallowgate said:
To be fair the Twitter posts or threads that are posted on here without comment are often quite interesting or relevant to the ongoing discussion.matt said:Why do some people just post Twitter links without adding personal commentary about why they think posting them is relevant? Do they believe that it’s some sort of public service?
0 -
By all accounts he had login problems initially. But I wonder if he then reflected that it was time to move on.malcolmg said:
Whatever happened to Scott TwitterDecrepiterJohnL said:
It would be nice if the Twitter links were not automatically expanded, especially more than once.Gallowgate said:
To be fair the Twitter posts or threads that are posted on here without comment are often quite interesting or relevant to the ongoing discussion.matt said:Why do some people just post Twitter links without adding personal commentary about why they think posting them is relevant? Do they believe that it’s some sort of public service?
0 -
In which case, according to the line from Corbyn's accolytes, Labour should now be knocking on the door of the Tories to take over a national polling lead. Labour only lost because of Brexit, after all. It'll take just one more heave. 10/10 for Corbyn and all that....HYUFD said:0 -
A mortgage is a different thing altogether as you cannot realistically buy a property outright(unless you bought those Liverpool ones for a quid...). Mind you I paid mine off as fast as I could over 20 yrs, it was painful, but being mortgage free has been a blessing.DecrepiterJohnL said:
Wasn't there a story about the owner of the Telegraph (or some such) asking his City Editor what he'd meant by the term mortgage in one of his columns, and being horrified to realise most of his staff were in debt?squareroot2 said:
Ask Boris, you gotta be joking!!. WE need to run our economy the same way we SHOULD run our finances... I never run my finances in defecit*** (I was for a short while when my wife died.) If I have a problem, I cut back till its resolved, spending money like Brown and what Corbyn WANTED TO DO are never the answer..DecrepiterJohnL said:
Austerity, pace Osborne, was misguided. Even if it might have worked in isolation, which is questionable, it faced Germany forcing the same mistakes onto the Eurozone, ruling out any hope of an export boom across the Channel. Austerity was wrong. Osborne was wrong. Ask Boris.squareroot2 said:Wonderful how the left blame Osborne for Brown's failure. even Darling wouldn't do that, he'd put the blame where it really lies, on the shoulders of the idiotic Brown.
Osborne was right to oppose Mrs May who turned out to be a disastrous leader of the Tory Party, That's why he was sacked, not for his policies.
Maxing out your credit cards a la Brown , is the road to ruin and is crazy.1 -
https://twitter.com/LesDennis/status/1224775328335376385?s=20matt said:Why do some people just post Twitter links without adding personal commentary about why they think posting them is relevant? Do they believe that it’s some sort of public service?
0 -
I am deeply ashamed to report an entirely unexpected and potentially significant development that has occurred in Germany an hour ago.
The Conservatives of Thuringia have aligned forces with the Thuringian AfD to vote a Free Democrat candidate into the office of Minister President of Thuringia.
The intention to start a longterm cooperation, or even a formal coalition, are so far being denied, but nevertheless, this constitutes a major taboo break, unprecedented in German post-war and post-cold-war history.
The ramifications of this are completely unclear, but it is obvious that this will send seismic tremors through the German political landscape for the foreseeable future.0 -
Thanks for posting that, Mr. Hamburg.
Do you think the initial reaction to that co-operation will affect it, or do you think it's going to be ongoing regardless of how people react initially?0 -
Problem is that the Victorians took a conscious decision to not allow through routes, with only what is now Thameslink getting snuck in (edit: and that only reopened in 1986!). There's too much valuable stuff in the way in London now to be able to build significant through-routes, other than commuter-rail scale such as Thameslink and Crossrail.JohnLilburne said:
The better comparison is Berlin Hauptbahnhof. Build a London Central Station and run tracks from all the major terminus stations. Although I think Berlin already had better through routes and after Unification there were plenty of bits of the city you could build on (I think Berlin Hbf is just in the old East).CarlottaVance said:
If only we'd done like France and put all the TGV lines into one Paris station......oh.....rottenborough said:
Only in UK could we terminate HS2 at the station that doesn't run HS1 to the Continent.Sunil_Prasannan said:
HS2 is going to have Euston as its terminus - already they are starting to demolish the current Euston station.eek said:
I suspect the bit into Euston to be kicked into the long, long grass.NorthernPowerhouse said:
Possible HS2 phase 3 incoming....Foxy said:
While conflicts between no. 10 and 11 are the bread and butter of British politics, isn't this a rather swift one to develop? Note also the releases on HS2 last week.rottenborough said:
Also I'm not sure how you build HS2 phase 2 and Northern PowerRail at the same time so it's possible the latter will be prioritised.0 -
Wasn't it more that the various lines were all being built by different private companies and each of the London stations served as their main station and terminus?rpjs said:
Problem is that the Victorians took a conscious decision to not allow through routes, with only what is now Thameslink getting snuck in (edit: and that only reopened in 1986!). There's too much valuable stuff in the way in London now to be able to build significant through-routes, other than commuter-rail scale such as Thameslink and Crossrail.JohnLilburne said:
The better comparison is Berlin Hauptbahnhof. Build a London Central Station and run tracks from all the major terminus stations. Although I think Berlin already had better through routes and after Unification there were plenty of bits of the city you could build on (I think Berlin Hbf is just in the old East).CarlottaVance said:
If only we'd done like France and put all the TGV lines into one Paris station......oh.....rottenborough said:
Only in UK could we terminate HS2 at the station that doesn't run HS1 to the Continent.Sunil_Prasannan said:
HS2 is going to have Euston as its terminus - already they are starting to demolish the current Euston station.eek said:
I suspect the bit into Euston to be kicked into the long, long grass.NorthernPowerhouse said:
Possible HS2 phase 3 incoming....Foxy said:
While conflicts between no. 10 and 11 are the bread and butter of British politics, isn't this a rather swift one to develop? Note also the releases on HS2 last week.rottenborough said:
Also I'm not sure how you build HS2 phase 2 and Northern PowerRail at the same time so it's possible the latter will be prioritised.0 -
It would be a very good point if there is a material difference between the transitional arrangements and the final deal. If there is then agreeing that the final deal comes into force in, say, another 6 months and the transitional arrangements are extended for the interim period would make a lot of sense. I don't think such an approach is inconsistent with Boris's insistence that we have a deal by the end of this year.Richard_Nabavi said:This is from a very good short Twitter thread:
https://twitter.com/AnnaJerzewska/status/12250348853683363850 -
Astor, Observer, allegedly.DecrepiterJohnL said:
Wasn't there a story about the owner of the Telegraph (or some such) asking his City Editor what he'd meant by the term mortgage in one of his columns, and being horrified to realise most of his staff were in debt?squareroot2 said:
Ask Boris, you gotta be joking!!. WE need to run our economy the same way we SHOULD run our finances... I never run my finances in defecit*** (I was for a short while when my wife died.) If I have a problem, I cut back till its resolved, spending money like Brown and what Corbyn WANTED TO DO are never the answer..DecrepiterJohnL said:
Austerity, pace Osborne, was misguided. Even if it might have worked in isolation, which is questionable, it faced Germany forcing the same mistakes onto the Eurozone, ruling out any hope of an export boom across the Channel. Austerity was wrong. Osborne was wrong. Ask Boris.squareroot2 said:Wonderful how the left blame Osborne for Brown's failure. even Darling wouldn't do that, he'd put the blame where it really lies, on the shoulders of the idiotic Brown.
Osborne was right to oppose Mrs May who turned out to be a disastrous leader of the Tory Party, That's why he was sacked, not for his policies.1 -
So far there hasn't really been any reaction from national party level.Morris_Dancer said:Thanks for posting that, Mr. Hamburg.
Do you think the initial reaction to that co-operation will affect it, or do you think it's going to be ongoing regardless of how people react initially?
Political parties at federal state (Bundesland) level do have a relatively high degree of independence, but Mohring (CDU Thuringia chairman, a man with a moral fabric equal to PM Johnson) has acted against a very firm, very publically announced position of the national CDU.
Too early to say how this will play out, but the situation in Thuringia will be highly unstable.
Few observers expect this nonesense to last very long.
0 -
But the deadline for extending the transitional period is at the end of this July, and Boris has legislated to self-deny that option anyway. That is the only option for any form of further transitional arrangements that will not require ratification by Walloonia et al.DavidL said:
It would be a very good point if there is a material difference between the transitional arrangements and the final deal. If there is then agreeing that the final deal comes into force in, say, another 6 months and the transitional arrangements are extended for the interim period would make a lot of sense. I don't think such an approach is inconsistent with Boris's insistence that we have a deal by the end of this year.Richard_Nabavi said:This is from a very good short Twitter thread:
https://twitter.com/AnnaJerzewska/status/12250348853683363850 -
Correct, but IIRC there was a Royal Commission or similar that recommended no through lines be permitted. I don't think there was ever a formal ban, rather that it suited the railway companies to follow it (and of course any new rail lines had to receive Parliamentary approval anyway). I read about this in one of Christian Wolmar's books but I don't have it to hand to give chapter and verse.IanB2 said:
Wasn't it more that the various lines were all being built by different private companies and each of the London stations served as their main station and terminus?rpjs said:
Problem is that the Victorians took a conscious decision to not allow through routes, with only what is now Thameslink getting snuck in (edit: and that only reopened in 1986!). There's too much valuable stuff in the way in London now to be able to build significant through-routes, other than commuter-rail scale such as Thameslink and Crossrail.JohnLilburne said:
The better comparison is Berlin Hauptbahnhof. Build a London Central Station and run tracks from all the major terminus stations. Although I think Berlin already had better through routes and after Unification there were plenty of bits of the city you could build on (I think Berlin Hbf is just in the old East).CarlottaVance said:
If only we'd done like France and put all the TGV lines into one Paris station......oh.....rottenborough said:
Only in UK could we terminate HS2 at the station that doesn't run HS1 to the Continent.Sunil_Prasannan said:
HS2 is going to have Euston as its terminus - already they are starting to demolish the current Euston station.eek said:
I suspect the bit into Euston to be kicked into the long, long grass.NorthernPowerhouse said:
Possible HS2 phase 3 incoming....Foxy said:
While conflicts between no. 10 and 11 are the bread and butter of British politics, isn't this a rather swift one to develop? Note also the releases on HS2 last week.rottenborough said:
Also I'm not sure how you build HS2 phase 2 and Northern PowerRail at the same time so it's possible the latter will be prioritised.0 -
Hmm...DavidL said:
As was the assumption in the MTFS that the extraordinary income rolling in from the City in general and the banks in particular was the new normal on which future spending could be based.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. JohnL, borrowing needlessly during a boom was unwise, however.
It seems that our current governments plans are based on roasting the goose that lays golden eggs.
0 -
More on the Chinese Grand Prix looking iffy:
https://twitter.com/JoshuaBurch99/status/12250041297618411521 -
Mr. Hamburg, danke.0
-
Just to be clear, you are saying that the CDU has voted for a FDU person to be Minister President, at the same time as the AfD has also voted for the same FDU person to be Minister President. not that the CDU has voted for an AfD person?matthiasfromhamburg said:I am deeply ashamed to report an entirely unexpected and potentially significant development that has occurred in Germany an hour ago.
The Conservatives of Thuringia have aligned forces with the Thuringian AfD to vote a Free Democrat candidate into the office of Minister President of Thuringia.
The intention to start a longterm cooperation, or even a formal coalition, are so far being denied, but nevertheless, this constitutes a major taboo break, unprecedented in German post-war and post-cold-war history.
The ramifications of this are completely unclear, but it is obvious that this will send seismic tremors through the German political landscape for the foreseeable future.0 -
Low turnout election, where one candidate has incredible infrastructure was always at risk of throwing a surprise.Alistair said:
The Buttigieg Sanders gap in the polling is unexplainable.MikeSmithson said:https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1224820662071709696
The polls in Iowa were crap
The lack of disclosure over the demographic numbers of these polls is frustrating.
How could they miss Buttigeig so badly?
Especially when said candidate was demonstratably popular as a repository for second choices.
The entrance poll is instructive.
Sanders was leading, but only just. Buttigieg got his vote out, and then converted a fair number of undecideds and unviable. In many ways Buttigieg was unlucky. If Klobuchar hadn't surged in the last two weeks, he'd have probably been on North of 30%.0 -
It can be built into the final agreement. Nothing is impossible if all parties agree.rpjs said:
But the deadline for extending the transitional period is at the end of this July, and Boris has legislated to self-deny that option anyway. That is the only option for any form of further transitional arrangements that will not require ratification by Walloonia et al.DavidL said:
It would be a very good point if there is a material difference between the transitional arrangements and the final deal. If there is then agreeing that the final deal comes into force in, say, another 6 months and the transitional arrangements are extended for the interim period would make a lot of sense. I don't think such an approach is inconsistent with Boris's insistence that we have a deal by the end of this year.Richard_Nabavi said:This is from a very good short Twitter thread:
https://twitter.com/AnnaJerzewska/status/12250348853683363850 -
Correct.BigRich said:
Just to be clear, you are saying that the CDU has voted for a FDU person to be Minister President, at the same time as the AfD has also voted for the same FDU person to be Minister President. not that the CDU has voted for an AfD person?matthiasfromhamburg said:I am deeply ashamed to report an entirely unexpected and potentially significant development that has occurred in Germany an hour ago.
The Conservatives of Thuringia have aligned forces with the Thuringian AfD to vote a Free Democrat candidate into the office of Minister President of Thuringia.
The intention to start a longterm cooperation, or even a formal coalition, are so far being denied, but nevertheless, this constitutes a major taboo break, unprecedented in German post-war and post-cold-war history.
The ramifications of this are completely unclear, but it is obvious that this will send seismic tremors through the German political landscape for the foreseeable future.0 -
Going to get worse before it gets betterMorris_Dancer said:More on the Chinese Grand Prix looking iffy:
https://twitter.com/JoshuaBurch99/status/1225004129761841152
I have always thought cruise ships must be hell anyway and hell raised to a beefy exponent when everyone gets diarrhoea and you are locked in your cabin for 3 days. On the ship in Japan they are locked in their cabins for 2 weeks...0 -
Thinking about New Hampshire - I note that it permits (even 'encourages' according to wiki) write-ins for people not on the ballot. Might Bloomberg get a meaningful non-zero score (ie above 1%) here - particularly if previous Biden voters are considering other options - and is there a way to bet on that?rcs1000 said:
Low turnout election, where one candidate has incredible infrastructure was always at risk of throwing a surprise.Alistair said:
The Buttigieg Sanders gap in the polling is unexplainable.MikeSmithson said:https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1224820662071709696
The polls in Iowa were crap
The lack of disclosure over the demographic numbers of these polls is frustrating.
How could they miss Buttigeig so badly?
Especially when said candidate was demonstratably popular as a repository for second choices.
The entrance poll is instructive.
Sanders was leading, but only just. Buttigieg got his vote out, and then converted a fair number of undecideds and unviable. In many ways Buttigieg was unlucky. If Klobuchar hadn't surged in the last two weeks, he'd have probably been on North of 30%.0 -
Only deal we will have is WTODavidL said:
It would be a very good point if there is a material difference between the transitional arrangements and the final deal. If there is then agreeing that the final deal comes into force in, say, another 6 months and the transitional arrangements are extended for the interim period would make a lot of sense. I don't think such an approach is inconsistent with Boris's insistence that we have a deal by the end of this year.Richard_Nabavi said:This is from a very good short Twitter thread:
https://twitter.com/AnnaJerzewska/status/12250348853683363851 -
The BBC have a story that the effect of the virus is going to be bad in Q1 before improving in Q2: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/cyz0z8w0ydwt/coronavirus-outbreakIshmaelZ said:
Going to get worse before it gets betterMorris_Dancer said:More on the Chinese Grand Prix looking iffy:
https://twitter.com/JoshuaBurch99/status/1225004129761841152
I have always thought cruise ships must be hell anyway and hell raised to a beefy exponent when everyone gets diarrhoea and you are locked in your cabin for 3 days. On the ship in Japan they are locked in their cabins for 2 weeks...
The more future events are impacted the more optimistic that appears.0 -
But doesn't the final agreement require ratification by all the EU27 and their sub-divisions where required?DavidL said:
It can be built into the final agreement. Nothing is impossible if all parties agree.rpjs said:
But the deadline for extending the transitional period is at the end of this July, and Boris has legislated to self-deny that option anyway. That is the only option for any form of further transitional arrangements that will not require ratification by Walloonia et al.DavidL said:
It would be a very good point if there is a material difference between the transitional arrangements and the final deal. If there is then agreeing that the final deal comes into force in, say, another 6 months and the transitional arrangements are extended for the interim period would make a lot of sense. I don't think such an approach is inconsistent with Boris's insistence that we have a deal by the end of this year.Richard_Nabavi said:This is from a very good short Twitter thread:
https://twitter.com/AnnaJerzewska/status/1225034885368336385
The UK is in great danger of falling of a cliff edge into a no-deal (sorry "Australia deal') on December 31st.0 -
Yes it does but the risk is not just ours. Several EZ countries already teetering on the edge of recession are very dependent upon their UK exports. The pressure on anyone trying to step out of line will be intense. There is clearly not no risk but I think it is a modest one. Should be clearer one way or another by July.rpjs said:
But doesn't the final agreement require ratification by all the EU27 and their sub-divisions where required?DavidL said:
It can be built into the final agreement. Nothing is impossible if all parties agree.rpjs said:
But the deadline for extending the transitional period is at the end of this July, and Boris has legislated to self-deny that option anyway. That is the only option for any form of further transitional arrangements that will not require ratification by Walloonia et al.DavidL said:
It would be a very good point if there is a material difference between the transitional arrangements and the final deal. If there is then agreeing that the final deal comes into force in, say, another 6 months and the transitional arrangements are extended for the interim period would make a lot of sense. I don't think such an approach is inconsistent with Boris's insistence that we have a deal by the end of this year.Richard_Nabavi said:This is from a very good short Twitter thread:
https://twitter.com/AnnaJerzewska/status/1225034885368336385
The UK is in great danger of falling of a cliff edge into a no-deal (sorry "Australia deal') on December 31st.0 -
Hope Tokyo have good insurance against having to bin the Olympics.DavidL said:
The BBC have a story that the effect of the virus is going to be bad in Q1 before improving in Q2: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/cyz0z8w0ydwt/coronavirus-outbreakIshmaelZ said:
Going to get worse before it gets betterMorris_Dancer said:More on the Chinese Grand Prix looking iffy:
https://twitter.com/JoshuaBurch99/status/1225004129761841152
I have always thought cruise ships must be hell anyway and hell raised to a beefy exponent when everyone gets diarrhoea and you are locked in your cabin for 3 days. On the ship in Japan they are locked in their cabins for 2 weeks...
The more future events are impacted the more optimistic that appears.
Could be a future pub quiz question, why were the 2020 Games held in 2021?
I’ll change my 1/4 estimate from this morning on the Chinese GP being cancelled, it’s now closer to 1/10.0 -
Like the Conservatives and BNP voting for a LibDem to become PM?matthiasfromhamburg said:
Correct.BigRich said:
Just to be clear, you are saying that the CDU has voted for a FDU person to be Minister President, at the same time as the AfD has also voted for the same FDU person to be Minister President. not that the CDU has voted for an AfD person?matthiasfromhamburg said:I am deeply ashamed to report an entirely unexpected and potentially significant development that has occurred in Germany an hour ago.
The Conservatives of Thuringia have aligned forces with the Thuringian AfD to vote a Free Democrat candidate into the office of Minister President of Thuringia.
The intention to start a longterm cooperation, or even a formal coalition, are so far being denied, but nevertheless, this constitutes a major taboo break, unprecedented in German post-war and post-cold-war history.
The ramifications of this are completely unclear, but it is obvious that this will send seismic tremors through the German political landscape for the foreseeable future.0 -
Yes but it only takes one single part of the EU to say no and we won't have a deal and a lot of those parts will be voting individually in places where pressure may not work or may have the opposite effect.DavidL said:
Yes it does but the risk is not just ours. Several EZ countries already teetering on the edge of recession are very dependent upon their UK exports. The pressure on anyone trying to step out of line will be intense. There is clearly not no risk but I think it is a modest one. Should be clearer one way or another by July.rpjs said:
But doesn't the final agreement require ratification by all the EU27 and their sub-divisions where required?DavidL said:
It can be built into the final agreement. Nothing is impossible if all parties agree.rpjs said:
But the deadline for extending the transitional period is at the end of this July, and Boris has legislated to self-deny that option anyway. That is the only option for any form of further transitional arrangements that will not require ratification by Walloonia et al.DavidL said:
It would be a very good point if there is a material difference between the transitional arrangements and the final deal. If there is then agreeing that the final deal comes into force in, say, another 6 months and the transitional arrangements are extended for the interim period would make a lot of sense. I don't think such an approach is inconsistent with Boris's insistence that we have a deal by the end of this year.Richard_Nabavi said:This is from a very good short Twitter thread:
https://twitter.com/AnnaJerzewska/status/1225034885368336385
The UK is in great danger of falling of a cliff edge into a no-deal (sorry "Australia deal') on December 31st.
And some parts of the EU really won't care if us leaving causes problems for another part of the EU.0 -
Let's hope the Taoiseach in July isn't from Sinn Fein then, and that the Spanish have had a change of heart over Gibraltar.DavidL said:
Yes it does but the risk is not just ours. Several EZ countries already teetering on the edge of recession are very dependent upon their UK exports. The pressure on anyone trying to step out of line will be intense. There is clearly not no risk but I think it is a modest one. Should be clearer one way or another by July.rpjs said:
But doesn't the final agreement require ratification by all the EU27 and their sub-divisions where required?DavidL said:
It can be built into the final agreement. Nothing is impossible if all parties agree.rpjs said:
But the deadline for extending the transitional period is at the end of this July, and Boris has legislated to self-deny that option anyway. That is the only option for any form of further transitional arrangements that will not require ratification by Walloonia et al.DavidL said:
It would be a very good point if there is a material difference between the transitional arrangements and the final deal. If there is then agreeing that the final deal comes into force in, say, another 6 months and the transitional arrangements are extended for the interim period would make a lot of sense. I don't think such an approach is inconsistent with Boris's insistence that we have a deal by the end of this year.Richard_Nabavi said:This is from a very good short Twitter thread:
https://twitter.com/AnnaJerzewska/status/1225034885368336385
The UK is in great danger of falling of a cliff edge into a no-deal (sorry "Australia deal') on December 31st.0 -
The expectation by the EU is that the final agreement won't need ratification by the 27 countries. That is because it will be limited in scope to be just a trade agreement, which is a competence of the EU itself.rpjs said:But doesn't the final agreement require ratification by all the EU27 and their sub-divisions where required?
The UK is in great danger of falling of a cliff edge into a no-deal (sorry "Australia deal') on December 31st.
It's clearly impossible for a full treaty ratification to be done by the timetable Boris has unwisely hitched himself to, so there really isn't any choice in this. As a result lots of significant issues won't be in any agreement. Note that even the limited Canada deal required full ratification because it was deemed to be a 'mixed' deal (trade and other matters).0 -
Ugh, sympathies.matthiasfromhamburg said:I am deeply ashamed to report an entirely unexpected and potentially significant development that has occurred in Germany an hour ago.
The Conservatives of Thuringia have aligned forces with the Thuringian AfD to vote a Free Democrat candidate into the office of Minister President of Thuringia.
The intention to start a longterm cooperation, or even a formal coalition, are so far being denied, but nevertheless, this constitutes a major taboo break, unprecedented in German post-war and post-cold-war history.
The ramifications of this are completely unclear, but it is obvious that this will send seismic tremors through the German political landscape for the foreseeable future.
I imagine that he'll struggle to form a state government, though? I see he's bid to include the Greens - it looks really unlikely that they'll agree. What is the position if he is unable to form a majority government?
Ramelow, who he's replaced, was the first president from The Left Party, and personally well-liked. I imagine it will energise their support.0 -
*before they amalgamated.logical_song said:
Like the Conservatives and BNP* voting for a LibDem to become PM?matthiasfromhamburg said:
Correct.BigRich said:
Just to be clear, you are saying that the CDU has voted for a FDU person to be Minister President, at the same time as the AfD has also voted for the same FDU person to be Minister President. not that the CDU has voted for an AfD person?matthiasfromhamburg said:I am deeply ashamed to report an entirely unexpected and potentially significant development that has occurred in Germany an hour ago.
The Conservatives of Thuringia have aligned forces with the Thuringian AfD to vote a Free Democrat candidate into the office of Minister President of Thuringia.
The intention to start a longterm cooperation, or even a formal coalition, are so far being denied, but nevertheless, this constitutes a major taboo break, unprecedented in German post-war and post-cold-war history.
The ramifications of this are completely unclear, but it is obvious that this will send seismic tremors through the German political landscape for the foreseeable future.0 -
Its a hypothetical risk. We are not all doomed.eek said:
Yes but it only takes one single part of the EU to say no and we won't have a deal and a lot of those parts will be voting individually in places where pressure may not work or may have the opposite effect.DavidL said:
Yes it does but the risk is not just ours. Several EZ countries already teetering on the edge of recession are very dependent upon their UK exports. The pressure on anyone trying to step out of line will be intense. There is clearly not no risk but I think it is a modest one. Should be clearer one way or another by July.rpjs said:
But doesn't the final agreement require ratification by all the EU27 and their sub-divisions where required?DavidL said:
It can be built into the final agreement. Nothing is impossible if all parties agree.rpjs said:
But the deadline for extending the transitional period is at the end of this July, and Boris has legislated to self-deny that option anyway. That is the only option for any form of further transitional arrangements that will not require ratification by Walloonia et al.DavidL said:
It would be a very good point if there is a material difference between the transitional arrangements and the final deal. If there is then agreeing that the final deal comes into force in, say, another 6 months and the transitional arrangements are extended for the interim period would make a lot of sense. I don't think such an approach is inconsistent with Boris's insistence that we have a deal by the end of this year.Richard_Nabavi said:This is from a very good short Twitter thread:
https://twitter.com/AnnaJerzewska/status/1225034885368336385
The UK is in great danger of falling of a cliff edge into a no-deal (sorry "Australia deal') on December 31st.
And some parts of the EU really won't care if us leaving causes problems for another part of the EU.0 -
I think 1/10 is generous. It looks virtually certain.Sandpit said:
Hope Tokyo have good insurance against having to bin the Olympics.DavidL said:
The BBC have a story that the effect of the virus is going to be bad in Q1 before improving in Q2: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/cyz0z8w0ydwt/coronavirus-outbreakIshmaelZ said:
Going to get worse before it gets betterMorris_Dancer said:More on the Chinese Grand Prix looking iffy:
https://twitter.com/JoshuaBurch99/status/1225004129761841152
I have always thought cruise ships must be hell anyway and hell raised to a beefy exponent when everyone gets diarrhoea and you are locked in your cabin for 3 days. On the ship in Japan they are locked in their cabins for 2 weeks...
The more future events are impacted the more optimistic that appears.
Could be a future pub quiz question, why were the 2020 Games held in 2021?
I’ll change my 1/4 estimate from this morning on the Chinese GP being cancelled, it’s now closer to 1/10.0 -
The Irish have probably greater reasons for avoiding no deal than we do. They will be in the camp pressing for yes. The Spanish have been pragmatic to date entering into bilateral arrangements re residents etc. It's not impossible. It's not likely.rpjs said:
Let's hope the Taoiseach in July isn't from Sinn Fein then, and that the Spanish have had a change of heart over Gibraltar.DavidL said:
Yes it does but the risk is not just ours. Several EZ countries already teetering on the edge of recession are very dependent upon their UK exports. The pressure on anyone trying to step out of line will be intense. There is clearly not no risk but I think it is a modest one. Should be clearer one way or another by July.rpjs said:
But doesn't the final agreement require ratification by all the EU27 and their sub-divisions where required?DavidL said:
It can be built into the final agreement. Nothing is impossible if all parties agree.rpjs said:
But the deadline for extending the transitional period is at the end of this July, and Boris has legislated to self-deny that option anyway. That is the only option for any form of further transitional arrangements that will not require ratification by Walloonia et al.DavidL said:
It would be a very good point if there is a material difference between the transitional arrangements and the final deal. If there is then agreeing that the final deal comes into force in, say, another 6 months and the transitional arrangements are extended for the interim period would make a lot of sense. I don't think such an approach is inconsistent with Boris's insistence that we have a deal by the end of this year.Richard_Nabavi said:This is from a very good short Twitter thread:
https://twitter.com/AnnaJerzewska/status/1225034885368336385
The UK is in great danger of falling of a cliff edge into a no-deal (sorry "Australia deal') on December 31st.0 -
In my experience military officers, though not exactly pacifists, are almost invariably anti-war. If pacifist students want to make freshers' fair a safe space it's the politicians they need to keep out.rottenborough said:
Jeez. A hundred years ago, 100s of their student predecessors died in the trenches, never completing their education.HYUFD said:1 -
So... there were three New Hampshire polls with (at least some) February polling out yesterday. And they all show (even before Iowa) some Mayor Pete movement.
He's second on 15% with Suffolk, and on 17% with Emerson, while he's third on 14% with St Alselm. Sanders leads with the first two polls, and is tied with Biden in the third.
One would expect Biden and Klobuchar to fall back after Iowa, to the benefit of Buttigieg. And Sanders must be hoping to gain from Warren.
Right now, I'd reckon that (removing undecideds) Sanders and Buttigieg are probably both on to get something in the mid-20s. Sanders is favourite, but not overwhelmingly so.
If Biden does come fourth again in New Hampshire, and Mayor Pete wins it, then the moderate side of the Democratic race becomes very interesting. Will those who support Biden solely because of his elect-ability stick with him?0 -
Sinn Fein's raison d'etre is to bring about a united Irish Republic. A no-deal disaster which they could wholly, and rightly, blame on the Brits is the single most likely thing in the near future that could bring that about.DavidL said:
The Irish have probably greater reasons for avoiding no deal than we do. They will be in the camp pressing for yes. The Spanish have been pragmatic to date entering into bilateral arrangements re residents etc. It's not impossible. It's not likely.rpjs said:
Let's hope the Taoiseach in July isn't from Sinn Fein then, and that the Spanish have had a change of heart over Gibraltar.DavidL said:
Yes it does but the risk is not just ours. Several EZ countries already teetering on the edge of recession are very dependent upon their UK exports. The pressure on anyone trying to step out of line will be intense. There is clearly not no risk but I think it is a modest one. Should be clearer one way or another by July.rpjs said:
But doesn't the final agreement require ratification by all the EU27 and their sub-divisions where required?DavidL said:
It can be built into the final agreement. Nothing is impossible if all parties agree.rpjs said:
But the deadline for extending the transitional period is at the end of this July, and Boris has legislated to self-deny that option anyway. That is the only option for any form of further transitional arrangements that will not require ratification by Walloonia et al.DavidL said:
It would be a very good point if there is a material difference between the transitional arrangements and the final deal. If there is then agreeing that the final deal comes into force in, say, another 6 months and the transitional arrangements are extended for the interim period would make a lot of sense. I don't think such an approach is inconsistent with Boris's insistence that we have a deal by the end of this year.Richard_Nabavi said:This is from a very good short Twitter thread:
https://twitter.com/AnnaJerzewska/status/1225034885368336385
The UK is in great danger of falling of a cliff edge into a no-deal (sorry "Australia deal') on December 31st.0 -
Just about, the difference is: the FDP has been lurching to the right for the last couple of decades, the current version of the LibDems is clearly more centrist.logical_song said:
Like the Conservatives and BNP voting for a LibDem to become PM?matthiasfromhamburg said:
Correct.BigRich said:
Just to be clear, you are saying that the CDU has voted for a FDU person to be Minister President, at the same time as the AfD has also voted for the same FDU person to be Minister President. not that the CDU has voted for an AfD person?matthiasfromhamburg said:I am deeply ashamed to report an entirely unexpected and potentially significant development that has occurred in Germany an hour ago.
The Conservatives of Thuringia have aligned forces with the Thuringian AfD to vote a Free Democrat candidate into the office of Minister President of Thuringia.
The intention to start a longterm cooperation, or even a formal coalition, are so far being denied, but nevertheless, this constitutes a major taboo break, unprecedented in German post-war and post-cold-war history.
The ramifications of this are completely unclear, but it is obvious that this will send seismic tremors through the German political landscape for the foreseeable future.0 -
So, in Iowa we've just gone from 62% to 71% reported (a quarter of the missing precincts have now been included). The shares and changes are:
Buttigieg 26.8% (-0.1%)
Sanders 25.2% (+0.1%)
There are now just 29% of precincts still to go.0 -
-
Slightly bizarrely, in Polk County (which is home of Des Moines), Buttigieg has clawed back to level with Sanders. They're now on 25.9% each.rcs1000 said:So, in Iowa we've just gone from 62% to 71% reported (a quarter of the missing precincts have now been included). The shares and changes are:
Buttigieg 26.8% (-0.1%)
Sanders 25.2% (+0.1%)
There are now just 29% of precincts still to go.0 -
Tories struggling to break the 50% barrier.CarlottaVance said:1 -
How well or badly do you think the government are doing at handling Britain's exit from the European Union?Net Well: -2 (+10)
In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the European Union?
Right: 43 (+3)
Wrong: 46 (-1)
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/jbrzn2vf5s/TheTimes_VI_Results_200203_W.pdf0 -
If the Tories had any sense, they would use this honeymoon period to implement as much policy as possible.CarlottaVance said:Labour Surge!
twitter.com/britainelects/status/1225074284323799040?s=201 -
Oh the irony.matthiasfromhamburg said:I am deeply ashamed to report an entirely unexpected and potentially significant development that has occurred in Germany an hour ago.
The Conservatives of Thuringia have aligned forces with the Thuringian AfD to vote a Free Democrat candidate into the office of Minister President of Thuringia.
The intention to start a longterm cooperation, or even a formal coalition, are so far being denied, but nevertheless, this constitutes a major taboo break, unprecedented in German post-war and post-cold-war history.
The ramifications of this are completely unclear, but it is obvious that this will send seismic tremors through the German political landscape for the foreseeable future.
English conservatives morph into English AfD = national triumph.
Thuringian conservatives happen to once vote the same way as Thuringian AfD = return of Lebensraum.0 -
I know Trump was a big baby not shaking Pelosi's hand, but she looked bloody awful pretending to do her tax returns while he was speaking and then ripping us his speech.
Whatever happened to when they go low, we go high?0 -
0
-
https://twitter.com/TwitterSafety/status/1224799841466777600Gallowgate said:
To be fair the Twitter posts or threads that are posted on here without comment are often quite interesting or relevant to the ongoing discussion.matt said:Why do some people just post Twitter links without adding personal commentary about why they think posting them is relevant? Do they believe that it’s some sort of public service?
0 -
Ramelow's personal approval rating across all voters was >70%. The Linke is basically a miror image of the Labour far left section.NickPalmer said:
Ugh, sympathies.matthiasfromhamburg said:I am deeply ashamed to report an entirely unexpected and potentially significant development that has occurred in Germany an hour ago.
The Conservatives of Thuringia have aligned forces with the Thuringian AfD to vote a Free Democrat candidate into the office of Minister President of Thuringia.
The intention to start a longterm cooperation, or even a formal coalition, are so far being denied, but nevertheless, this constitutes a major taboo break, unprecedented in German post-war and post-cold-war history.
The ramifications of this are completely unclear, but it is obvious that this will send seismic tremors through the German political landscape for the foreseeable future.
I imagine that he'll struggle to form a state government, though? I see he's bid to include the Greens - it looks really unlikely that they'll agree. What is the position if he is unable to form a majority government?
Ramelow, who he's replaced, was the first president from The Left Party, and personally well-liked. I imagine it will energise their support.
He will very much struggle to form a government. Half an hour ago he rejected any kind of ongoing cooperation with the AfD. The problem is, FDP, CDU, SPD+Greens are far short of a majority. Without either Linke or AfD there is only the option of a minority government.0 -
The new coronavirus continues to look rather alarming (worth reading he thread for some qualifiers on those numbers) :
https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/12247871155416965120 -
If Mayor Pete is the up and coming centrist that’s could surge in an “ I agree with Nick” kind of week - how long before it is known as the Buttgasm ?0
-
Just got tired of being trolled, I guess.FrancisUrquhart said:I know Trump was a big baby not shaking Pelosi's hand, but she looked bloody awful pretending to do her tax returns while he was speaking and then ripping us his speech.
Whatever happened to when they go low, we go high?
The idea that the Democrats should sit passively through a partisan tirade of that nature, because... decorum, is just silly.
I admire her restraint in not clocking him.0 -
Numbers from Wikipidia:matthiasfromhamburg said:
Ramelow's personal approval rating across all voters was >70%. The Linke is basically a miror image of the Labour far left section.NickPalmer said:
Ugh, sympathies.matthiasfromhamburg said:I am deeply ashamed to report an entirely unexpected and potentially significant development that has occurred in Germany an hour ago.
The Conservatives of Thuringia have aligned forces with the Thuringian AfD to vote a Free Democrat candidate into the office of Minister President of Thuringia.
The intention to start a longterm cooperation, or even a formal coalition, are so far being denied, but nevertheless, this constitutes a major taboo break, unprecedented in German post-war and post-cold-war history.
The ramifications of this are completely unclear, but it is obvious that this will send seismic tremors through the German political landscape for the foreseeable future.
I imagine that he'll struggle to form a state government, though? I see he's bid to include the Greens - it looks really unlikely that they'll agree. What is the position if he is unable to form a majority government?
Ramelow, who he's replaced, was the first president from The Left Party, and personally well-liked. I imagine it will energise their support.
He will very much struggle to form a government. Half an hour ago he rejected any kind of ongoing cooperation with the AfD. The problem is, FDP, CDU, SPD+Greens are far short of a majority. Without either Linke or AfD there is only the option of a minority government.
Total Seats: 90
AdF: 29
Linke: 22
CDU: 21
SPD: 8
Green: 5
FD: 5
So CDU SDP, Green and FD have between them 39, 7 short of a majority.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Thuringian_state_election0 -
As I said, a taboo has been broken.StuartDickson said:
Oh the irony.matthiasfromhamburg said:I am deeply ashamed to report an entirely unexpected and potentially significant development that has occurred in Germany an hour ago.
The Conservatives of Thuringia have aligned forces with the Thuringian AfD to vote a Free Democrat candidate into the office of Minister President of Thuringia.
The intention to start a longterm cooperation, or even a formal coalition, are so far being denied, but nevertheless, this constitutes a major taboo break, unprecedented in German post-war and post-cold-war history.
The ramifications of this are completely unclear, but it is obvious that this will send seismic tremors through the German political landscape for the foreseeable future.
English conservatives morph into English AfD = national triumph.
Thuringian conservatives happen to once vote the same way as Thuringian AfD = return of Lebensraum.
Given our history a lifespan ago, the rejection of nationalist politics has been the central totemic point of our political and societal basic agreement.0 -
It's only 3 months till Local Elections.
What would Con 49, Lab 30 national shares mean in terms of local council results?
On the face of it might be very embarrassing for Lab?
Of course new leader will be elected one month before Locals so might get some sort of bounce.0 -
You don't have to be passive. You can respect the office, then call out of his BS.Nigelb said:
Just got tired of being trolled, I guess.FrancisUrquhart said:I know Trump was a big baby not shaking Pelosi's hand, but she looked bloody awful pretending to do her tax returns while he was speaking and then ripping us his speech.
Whatever happened to when they go low, we go high?
The idea that the Democrats should sit passively through a partisan tirade of that nature, because... decorum, is just silly.
They are in danger of falling into the trap of Labour. American's are incredibly patriotic, especially in middle America, they believe in the system, the offices of state etc. If you spend you time disrespecting that, don't be surprised if they aren't very impressed with you. It's like Jezza not singing the national anthem type stuff.
Now you might say, well that is what the Orange man does. But most people don't take any notice of Trump's trolling on the twitter machine, but they do watch stuff like the state of the nation address.0 -
It was also a matter of being defeated by the 'straight' choice - ie Simon Hughes!IanB2 said:0 -
Is that 25.9% based on final alignment votes?rcs1000 said:
Slightly bizarrely, in Polk County (which is home of Des Moines), Buttigieg has clawed back to level with Sanders. They're now on 25.9% each.rcs1000 said:So, in Iowa we've just gone from 62% to 71% reported (a quarter of the missing precincts have now been included). The shares and changes are:
Buttigieg 26.8% (-0.1%)
Sanders 25.2% (+0.1%)
There are now just 29% of precincts still to go.0 -
Unlikely in reality - and Survation has the lead at just 11%.MikeL said:It's only 3 months till Local Elections.
What would Con 49, Lab 30 national shares mean in terms of local council results?
On the face of it might be very embarrassing for Lab?
Of course new leader will be elected one month before Locals so might get some sort of bounce.
We have just passed the 3% point of this Parliament were it to run its full term!0 -
The Dominic Cummings who refused to appear before a Parliamentary Select Committee?AlastairMeeks said:The aversion to scrutiny is much more a Boris Johnson thing than a Dominic Cummings thing, judging by past behaviour.
Both as bad as each other, I’d have thought.1 -
Pelosi should know better, though. After all, it was she who was so very wary of going down the impeachment route given the dangers for the Dems at the ballot box in doing so.FrancisUrquhart said:
You don't have to be passive. You can respect the office, then call out of his BS.Nigelb said:
Just got tired of being trolled, I guess.FrancisUrquhart said:I know Trump was a big baby not shaking Pelosi's hand, but she looked bloody awful pretending to do her tax returns while he was speaking and then ripping us his speech.
Whatever happened to when they go low, we go high?
The idea that the Democrats should sit passively through a partisan tirade of that nature, because... decorum, is just silly.
They are in danger of falling into the trap of Labour. American's are incredibly patriotic, especially in middle America, they believe in the system, the offices of state etc. If you spend you time disrespecting that, don't be surprised if they aren't very impressed with you. It's like Jezza not singing the national anthem type stuff.
Now you might say, well that is what the Orange man does. But most people don't take any notice of Trump's trolling on the twitter machine, but they do watch stuff like the state of the nation address.
Many people, regardless of what they think of the despicable Orange One, do not like electoral elites overturning election (and referendum) results. While I personally think Trump is treasonous and should have been removed from office, I can also see that many think that with an election this year, that task should be left to the electorate, not some partisan process in Congress.
Alas, the Dems futile manouevring have led to Trump's highest approval rating in a long while - 49%. I think it is now better than evens that Trump wins re-election, so the Dems (and the US') only hope now is to take both Houses and re-impeach him after the election. But if they go that route, they better be sure before they start that they can go all the way to removal from office.
[Purely fun idle speculation - Makes me wonder if Trump will remove Pence as his VEEP choice and put Ivanka on the ticket, so that if he is removed, the family keep the presidency ...]0 -
I notice the Bernie mob on twitter are very angry about who they now call #CheatinPete or #MayorCheat.
Trump is definitely going to be using that going forward.0 -
And yet the first Twitter advert I still see everyday is a Bitcoin scam.Nigelb said:
https://twitter.com/TwitterSafety/status/1224799841466777600Gallowgate said:
To be fair the Twitter posts or threads that are posted on here without comment are often quite interesting or relevant to the ongoing discussion.matt said:Why do some people just post Twitter links without adding personal commentary about why they think posting them is relevant? Do they believe that it’s some sort of public service?
0 -
So the paper which called judges “Enemies of the People” has now realised that journalists too can be picked on when it doesn't suit those in power.rottenborough said:Is there a book on the Cumming's departure date?
https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1225003381896466433
How ironic. Better late than never, I suppose.1 -
What’s their main complaint? He won?FrancisUrquhart said:I notice the Bernie mob on twitter are very angry about who they now call #CheatinPete or #MayorCheat.
Trump is definitely going to be using that going forward.0 -
The whole conspiracy theory involving the individuals who work for the company behind the app that failed combined with that his campaign paid them for services. According to the more nuttier elements, it is all a DNC stitch up.AlastairMeeks said:
What’s their main complaint? He won?FrancisUrquhart said:I notice the Bernie mob on twitter are very angry about who they now call #CheatinPete or #MayorCheat.
Trump is definitely going to be using that going forward.0 -
They’ve obviously been driven around the South Bend.FrancisUrquhart said:
The whole conspiracy theory involving the individuals who work for the company behind the app that failed and the fact his campaign paid them for services.AlastairMeeks said:
What’s their main complaint? He won?FrancisUrquhart said:I notice the Bernie mob on twitter are very angry about who they now call #CheatinPete or #MayorCheat.
Trump is definitely going to be using that going forward.1 -
Hopefully the DNC emails are more secure this time round...FrancisUrquhart said:
The whole conspiracy theory involving the individuals who work for the company behind the app that failed combined with that his campaign paid them for services. According to the more nuttier elements, it is all a DNC stitch up.AlastairMeeks said:
What’s their main complaint? He won?FrancisUrquhart said:I notice the Bernie mob on twitter are very angry about who they now call #CheatinPete or #MayorCheat.
Trump is definitely going to be using that going forward.0 -
I am surprised nobody has suggested that it was Russia behind the failure in Iowa.0
-
He isn't demonstrably left enough. And that's the reason why I'm not certain the Don will be able to exploit it. President Pete will obviously not be voted in by the Trumpian core, but receiving flak from the Bernie gang might be helpful to sway moderate republicans, there are still some of them left, even if they are quite.AlastairMeeks said:
What’s their main complaint? He won?FrancisUrquhart said:I notice the Bernie mob on twitter are very angry about who they now call #CheatinPete or #MayorCheat.
Trump is definitely going to be using that going forward.0 -
I sympathise with all of this, of course, but there is a bit more to be said. We live in a Parliamentary democracy. Ministers are accountable to parliament, and parliament to the people. A government is entitled to take the view that it is Parliament, and its many select committees and other ramifications, who should be asking the questions, scrutinising and holding it to account. All of these proceedings are now made available freely online, via the BBC Parliament channel and so on.Cyclefree said:
So the paper which called judges “Enemies of the People” has now realised that journalists too can be picked on when it doesn't suit those in power.rottenborough said:Is there a book on the Cumming's departure date?
https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1225003381896466433
How ironic. Better late than never, I suppose.
I wonder whether journalists have set themselves up as 'better than parliament' in holding government to account and by doing parliament's job has allowed parliament to become supine and pointless in many respects.
What journalists want is a running commentary on everything that someone can hold a grievance about, and constantly to hold government up to attack - regardless of who is in government.
Why should government not say to journalism 'Try reporting parliament for a change, instead of setting up as a rival to it'.
BTW I think the Today programme has marginally more interesting people on it now that it is under a ministerial boycott. Anyone agree?
3 -
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_Kingdom_local_electionsMikeL said:It's only 3 months till Local Elections.
What would Con 49, Lab 30 national shares mean in terms of local council results?
On the face of it might be very embarrassing for Lab?
Of course new leader will be elected one month before Locals so might get some sort of bounce.
Looking at the areas that are up for election in 3 months, i think its very possible that a lot of seats and some councils could go from red to blue.
yes the new Lab Leader may get some bounce, but equally a big define in his first 6 weeks as leader could start to define his leadership from the start.
Given, a) the length of the Lab leadership contest, and b) that it already seems lickly we know who will win, he may not get much coverage of his victory.0 -
That’s not the government’s complaint. It just wants to give news exclusively to pliant journalists.algarkirk said:
I sympathise with all of this, of course, but there is a bit more to be said. We live in a Parliamentary democracy. Ministers are accountable to parliament, and parliament to the people. A government is entitled to take the view that it is Parliament, and its many select committees and other ramifications, who should be asking the questions, scrutinising and holding it to account. All of these proceedings are now made available freely online, via the BBC Parliament channel and so on.Cyclefree said:
So the paper which called judges “Enemies of the People” has now realised that journalists too can be picked on when it doesn't suit those in power.rottenborough said:Is there a book on the Cumming's departure date?
https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1225003381896466433
How ironic. Better late than never, I suppose.
I wonder whether journalists have set themselves up as 'better than parliament' in holding government to account and by doing parliament's job has allowed parliament to become supine and pointless in many respects.
What journalists want is a running commentary on everything that someone can hold a grievance about, and constantly to hold government up to attack - regardless of who is in government.
Why should government not say to journalism 'Try reporting parliament for a change, instead of setting up as a rival to it'.
BTW I think the Today programme has marginally more interesting people on it now that it is under a ministerial boycott. Anyone agree?0 -
out of curiosity what is it that Pete has done do they think is cheating?FrancisUrquhart said:I notice the Bernie mob on twitter are very angry about who they now call #CheatinPete or #MayorCheat.
Trump is definitely going to be using that going forward.0 -
Pliant journalists such as those from the Guardian and the BBC, in the case of the current row.AlastairMeeks said:That’s not the government’s complaint. It just wants to give news exclusively to pliant journalists.
Doesn't compute, does it? The complaints are incoherent: people are complaining about what they would like to think justifies their complaint, not about what actually happened.1 -
Has the Trump approval rating really moved much? The 538 tracker has it stuck in pretty much exactly the same range as it's pretty much always been.TimT said:Pelosi should know better, though. After all, it was she who was so very wary of going down the impeachment route given the dangers for the Dems at the ballot box in doing so.
Many people, regardless of what they think of the despicable Orange One, do not like electoral elites overturning election (and referendum) results. While I personally think Trump is treasonous and should have been removed from office, I can also see that many think that with an election this year, that task should be left to the electorate, not some partisan process in Congress.
Alas, the Dems futile manouevring have led to Trump's highest approval rating in a long while - 49%. I think it is now better than evens that Trump wins re-election, so the Dems (and the US') only hope now is to take both Houses and re-impeach him after the election. But if they go that route, they better be sure before they start that they can go all the way to removal from office.
[Purely fun idle speculation - Makes me wonder if Trump will remove Pence as his VEEP choice and put Ivanka on the ticket, so that if he is removed, the family keep the presidency ...]
Now, it's definitely at the top of the range. But... it's not really moved from there.
Personally, I think the Don has to be given another term. His policies have aped Lionel Barber and Ted Heath, with massive government deficits pump priming the economy. (People haven't noticed this, but 2020 will have the third largest fiscal deficit in post WW2 history, with only the Great Recession years exceeding it.) That's extraordinary fiscal largess for a period when the economy is growing nicely.
It can't be left to a Democrat to pick up the pieces. It has to be the Donald who faces a recession with no fiscal room for maneuver. So, I'm praying that Trump is reelected.0 -
I am not disagreeing with that point of course. Though I think the government is mistaken if it thinks such a strategy can work.AlastairMeeks said:
That’s not the government’s complaint. It just wants to give news exclusively to pliant journalists.algarkirk said:
I sympathise with all of this, of course, but there is a bit more to be said. We live in a Parliamentary democracy. Ministers are accountable to parliament, and parliament to the people. A government is entitled to take the view that it is Parliament, and its many select committees and other ramifications, who should be asking the questions, scrutinising and holding it to account. All of these proceedings are now made available freely online, via the BBC Parliament channel and so on.Cyclefree said:
So the paper which called judges “Enemies of the People” has now realised that journalists too can be picked on when it doesn't suit those in power.rottenborough said:Is there a book on the Cumming's departure date?
https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1225003381896466433
How ironic. Better late than never, I suppose.
I wonder whether journalists have set themselves up as 'better than parliament' in holding government to account and by doing parliament's job has allowed parliament to become supine and pointless in many respects.
What journalists want is a running commentary on everything that someone can hold a grievance about, and constantly to hold government up to attack - regardless of who is in government.
Why should government not say to journalism 'Try reporting parliament for a change, instead of setting up as a rival to it'.
BTW I think the Today programme has marginally more interesting people on it now that it is under a ministerial boycott. Anyone agree?
0 -
They’re establishing the principle of picking and choosing. The fact they’ve picked and chosen not too egregiously this time would set a very handy precedent for when they want to play harder ball.Richard_Nabavi said:
Pliant journalists such as those from the Guardian and the BBC, in the case of the current row.AlastairMeeks said:That’s not the government’s complaint. It just wants to give news exclusively to pliant journalists.
Doesn't compute, does it? The complaints are incoherent: people are complaining about what they would like to think justifies their complaint, not about what actually happened.0 -
YesStocky said:
Is that 25.9% based on final alignment votes?rcs1000 said:
Slightly bizarrely, in Polk County (which is home of Des Moines), Buttigieg has clawed back to level with Sanders. They're now on 25.9% each.rcs1000 said:So, in Iowa we've just gone from 62% to 71% reported (a quarter of the missing precincts have now been included). The shares and changes are:
Buttigieg 26.8% (-0.1%)
Sanders 25.2% (+0.1%)
There are now just 29% of precincts still to go.0 -
Anyway, if the Democrats want a competent candidate, I’d have thought that Pete Buttigieg just showed his credentials on that front to very best advantage.2
-
Not really. If they really want a precedent then Alastair Campbell provided a rich store. Or even Harold Wilson for that matter.AlastairMeeks said:
They’re establishing the principle of picking and choosing. The fact they’ve picked and chosen not too egregiously this time would set a very handy precedent for when they want to play harder ball.Richard_Nabavi said:
Pliant journalists such as those from the Guardian and the BBC, in the case of the current row.AlastairMeeks said:That’s not the government’s complaint. It just wants to give news exclusively to pliant journalists.
Doesn't compute, does it? The complaints are incoherent: people are complaining about what they would like to think justifies their complaint, not about what actually happened.
In any case we should be scrupulous about the facts, rather than throw stones on an entirely false basis, as many are doing. That's kinda the whole point, isn't it?0 -
The reason the Iowa caucuses matter, is because they test the ability of a candidate to organise. Buttigieg has proved he has that skill. And Biden has proved he does not.AlastairMeeks said:Anyway, if the Democrats want a competent candidate, I’d have thought that Pete Buttigieg just showed his credentials on that front to very best advantage.
1 -
Plus he is utterly uninspiring. No matter how he likes to paint his backstory, he has the demeanour and attitudes of a technocrat with zero personality.BigRich said:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_Kingdom_local_electionsMikeL said:It's only 3 months till Local Elections.
What would Con 49, Lab 30 national shares mean in terms of local council results?
On the face of it might be very embarrassing for Lab?
Of course new leader will be elected one month before Locals so might get some sort of bounce.
Looking at the areas that are up for election in 3 months, i think its very possible that a lot of seats and some councils could go from red to blue.
yes the new Lab Leader may get some bounce, but equally a big define in his first 6 weeks as leader could start to define his leadership from the start.
Given, a) the length of the Lab leadership contest, and b) that it already seems lickly we know who will win, he may not get much coverage of his victory.
There is nothing about him that shouts optimism, hope, positivity.
Plus if he persists with ideas like extending the franchise to EU citizens, he will continue to alienate significant sectors of the voting population.0 -
It strikes me as ironic that some of the things that people feared about Corbyn are now being done by Boris’s Tories:-
1. Attacks on the judiciary.
2. Limiting scrutiny by Parliament.
3. Limiting challenges to government actions by the public
4. Wanting to control how the press reports them.
5. Turning a blind eye to some of the associations of their MPs (see the silence on Daniel Kawcyznski’s extra-curricular venture).
6. Doing the bare minimum to root out their own bigotry - whatever happened to the Tory party’s inquiry into anti-Muslim prejudice?
What next one wonders. We’ve already had the rescue of a failing private company and the cosying up to a foreign Communist government.
Have I missed anything?1 -
I 100% agree with both you and AlastairMeeks.rcs1000 said:
The reason the Iowa caucuses matter, is because they test the ability of a candidate to organise. Buttigieg has proved he has that skill. And Biden has proved he does not.AlastairMeeks said:Anyway, if the Democrats want a competent candidate, I’d have thought that Pete Buttigieg just showed his credentials on that front to very best advantage.
Biden lacks not just the ability to organise but also appears to lack the ability to consistently get to the end of a sentence. Why Biden is even considered a contender is beyond me.0 -
Apparently John Bercow's autobiography titled 'Unspeakable' is out tomorrow....I wonder if it will be even shitter than Cameron's book?0
-
From the various bits of info around, it sounds like the government don’t like the Lobby system specifically, rather than journalists in general.Richard_Nabavi said:
Pliant journalists such as those from the Guardian and the BBC, in the case of the current row.AlastairMeeks said:That’s not the government’s complaint. It just wants to give news exclusively to pliant journalists.
Doesn't compute, does it? The complaints are incoherent: people are complaining about what they would like to think justifies their complaint, not about what actually happened.0 -
It's funny, until this year's Democratic nomination, I'd always thought that "charisma" meant the ability to engage people, to have them want to listen to what you had to say, to charm and attract people.Philip_Thompson said:
I 100% agree with both you and AlastairMeeks.rcs1000 said:
The reason the Iowa caucuses matter, is because they test the ability of a candidate to organise. Buttigieg has proved he has that skill. And Biden has proved he does not.AlastairMeeks said:Anyway, if the Democrats want a competent candidate, I’d have thought that Pete Buttigieg just showed his credentials on that front to very best advantage.
Biden lacks not just the ability to organise but also appears to lack the ability to consistently get to the end of a sentence. Why Biden is even considered a contender is beyond me.
Now I realise that it means you must have visible signs of mental decline.0
