Am I missing something, or is that the most pointless political poll in the history of everything everywhere?
No it is utter bollox, one a balloon ( though a lucky politician ) and of the other two one is not a politician and the other has resigned ( and is a piss poor politician ).
Wonderful how the left blame Osborne for Brown's failure. even Darling wouldn't do that, he'd put the blame where it really lies, on the shoulders of the idiotic Brown.
Osborne was right to oppose Mrs May who turned out to be a disastrous leader of the Tory Party, That's why he was sacked, not for his policies.
Austerity, pace Osborne, was misguided. Even if it might have worked in isolation, which is questionable, it faced Germany forcing the same mistakes onto the Eurozone, ruling out any hope of an export boom across the Channel. Austerity was wrong. Osborne was wrong. Ask Boris.
Ask Boris, you gotta be joking!!. WE need to run our economy the same way we SHOULD run our finances... I never run my finances in defecit*** (I was for a short while when my wife died.) If I have a problem, I cut back till its resolved, spending money like Brown and what Corbyn WANTED TO DO are never the answer..
Wasn't there a story about the owner of the Telegraph (or some such) asking his City Editor what he'd meant by the term mortgage in one of his columns, and being horrified to realise most of his staff were in debt?
Most of the polls in Iowa have always been pretty crap, I think because of the exceptional use of caucuses. They were probably a bit crappier than usual this year because the poll that tried to get under the skin of the caucus system and therefore had the best reputation (Des Moines Register) was discovered to have flaws and was pulled.
Even then, they don't seem to have been quite as far out as you are implying, if the final week only is the focus. Buttigieg was understated and Biden overstated but Sanders, Warren and Klobuchar seem to be in the right ball park and Sanders does seem to have just about prevailed in the aggregate vote (not the SDEs) which is what the polls were predicting. The weakening of Biden's position was also detected - none of the final week polls had him ahead, in contrast to earlier weeks.
So I don't think you can damn the usefulness of future primary polls on the back of what we think has happened in the Iowa caucuses [EDIT: Not that your comment actually said that we should.]
Wonderful how the left blame Osborne for Brown's failure. even Darling wouldn't do that, he'd put the blame where it really lies, on the shoulders of the idiotic Brown.
Osborne was right to oppose Mrs May who turned out to be a disastrous leader of the Tory Party, That's why he was sacked, not for his policies.
Austerity, pace Osborne, was misguided. Even if it might have worked in isolation, which is questionable, it faced Germany forcing the same mistakes onto the Eurozone, ruling out any hope of an export boom across the Channel. Austerity was wrong. Osborne was wrong. Ask Boris.
Ask Boris, you gotta be joking!!. WE need to run our economy the same way we SHOULD run our finances... I never run my finances in defecit*** (I was for a short while when my wife died.) If I have a problem, I cut back till its resolved, spending money like Brown and what Corbyn WANTED TO DO are never the answer..
Wasn't there a story about the owner of the Telegraph (or some such) asking his City Editor what he'd meant by the term mortgage in one of his columns, and being horrified to realise most of his staff were in debt?
I've heard that story applied to Elton John. Whi was so horrified that he then paid off all his staff's mortgages. Its a nice story, but may well be apocryphal - particularly if it is flapping around applying itself to other targets.
Why do some people just post Twitter links without adding personal commentary about why they think posting them is relevant? Do they believe that it’s some sort of public service?
To be fair the Twitter posts or threads that are posted on here without comment are often quite interesting or relevant to the ongoing discussion.
It would be nice if the Twitter links were not automatically expanded, especially more than once.
Why do some people just post Twitter links without adding personal commentary about why they think posting them is relevant? Do they believe that it’s some sort of public service?
To be fair the Twitter posts or threads that are posted on here without comment are often quite interesting or relevant to the ongoing discussion.
It would be nice if the Twitter links were not automatically expanded, especially more than once.
Whatever happened to Scott Twitter
By all accounts he had login problems initially. But I wonder if he then reflected that it was time to move on.
In which case, according to the line from Corbyn's accolytes, Labour should now be knocking on the door of the Tories to take over a national polling lead. Labour only lost because of Brexit, after all. It'll take just one more heave. 10/10 for Corbyn and all that....
Wonderful how the left blame Osborne for Brown's failure. even Darling wouldn't do that, he'd put the blame where it really lies, on the shoulders of the idiotic Brown.
Osborne was right to oppose Mrs May who turned out to be a disastrous leader of the Tory Party, That's why he was sacked, not for his policies.
Austerity, pace Osborne, was misguided. Even if it might have worked in isolation, which is questionable, it faced Germany forcing the same mistakes onto the Eurozone, ruling out any hope of an export boom across the Channel. Austerity was wrong. Osborne was wrong. Ask Boris.
Ask Boris, you gotta be joking!!. WE need to run our economy the same way we SHOULD run our finances... I never run my finances in defecit*** (I was for a short while when my wife died.) If I have a problem, I cut back till its resolved, spending money like Brown and what Corbyn WANTED TO DO are never the answer..
Wasn't there a story about the owner of the Telegraph (or some such) asking his City Editor what he'd meant by the term mortgage in one of his columns, and being horrified to realise most of his staff were in debt?
A mortgage is a different thing altogether as you cannot realistically buy a property outright(unless you bought those Liverpool ones for a quid...). Mind you I paid mine off as fast as I could over 20 yrs, it was painful, but being mortgage free has been a blessing.
Maxing out your credit cards a la Brown , is the road to ruin and is crazy.
Why do some people just post Twitter links without adding personal commentary about why they think posting them is relevant? Do they believe that it’s some sort of public service?
I am deeply ashamed to report an entirely unexpected and potentially significant development that has occurred in Germany an hour ago. The Conservatives of Thuringia have aligned forces with the Thuringian AfD to vote a Free Democrat candidate into the office of Minister President of Thuringia. The intention to start a longterm cooperation, or even a formal coalition, are so far being denied, but nevertheless, this constitutes a major taboo break, unprecedented in German post-war and post-cold-war history. The ramifications of this are completely unclear, but it is obvious that this will send seismic tremors through the German political landscape for the foreseeable future.
Do you think the initial reaction to that co-operation will affect it, or do you think it's going to be ongoing regardless of how people react initially?
While conflicts between no. 10 and 11 are the bread and butter of British politics, isn't this a rather swift one to develop? Note also the releases on HS2 last week.
Possible HS2 phase 3 incoming....
I suspect the bit into Euston to be kicked into the long, long grass.
Also I'm not sure how you build HS2 phase 2 and Northern PowerRail at the same time so it's possible the latter will be prioritised.
HS2 is going to have Euston as its terminus - already they are starting to demolish the current Euston station.
Only in UK could we terminate HS2 at the station that doesn't run HS1 to the Continent.
If only we'd done like France and put all the TGV lines into one Paris station......oh.....
The better comparison is Berlin Hauptbahnhof. Build a London Central Station and run tracks from all the major terminus stations. Although I think Berlin already had better through routes and after Unification there were plenty of bits of the city you could build on (I think Berlin Hbf is just in the old East).
Problem is that the Victorians took a conscious decision to not allow through routes, with only what is now Thameslink getting snuck in (edit: and that only reopened in 1986!). There's too much valuable stuff in the way in London now to be able to build significant through-routes, other than commuter-rail scale such as Thameslink and Crossrail.
While conflicts between no. 10 and 11 are the bread and butter of British politics, isn't this a rather swift one to develop? Note also the releases on HS2 last week.
Possible HS2 phase 3 incoming....
I suspect the bit into Euston to be kicked into the long, long grass.
Also I'm not sure how you build HS2 phase 2 and Northern PowerRail at the same time so it's possible the latter will be prioritised.
HS2 is going to have Euston as its terminus - already they are starting to demolish the current Euston station.
Only in UK could we terminate HS2 at the station that doesn't run HS1 to the Continent.
If only we'd done like France and put all the TGV lines into one Paris station......oh.....
The better comparison is Berlin Hauptbahnhof. Build a London Central Station and run tracks from all the major terminus stations. Although I think Berlin already had better through routes and after Unification there were plenty of bits of the city you could build on (I think Berlin Hbf is just in the old East).
Problem is that the Victorians took a conscious decision to not allow through routes, with only what is now Thameslink getting snuck in (edit: and that only reopened in 1986!). There's too much valuable stuff in the way in London now to be able to build significant through-routes, other than commuter-rail scale such as Thameslink and Crossrail.
Wasn't it more that the various lines were all being built by different private companies and each of the London stations served as their main station and terminus?
It would be a very good point if there is a material difference between the transitional arrangements and the final deal. If there is then agreeing that the final deal comes into force in, say, another 6 months and the transitional arrangements are extended for the interim period would make a lot of sense. I don't think such an approach is inconsistent with Boris's insistence that we have a deal by the end of this year.
Wonderful how the left blame Osborne for Brown's failure. even Darling wouldn't do that, he'd put the blame where it really lies, on the shoulders of the idiotic Brown.
Osborne was right to oppose Mrs May who turned out to be a disastrous leader of the Tory Party, That's why he was sacked, not for his policies.
Austerity, pace Osborne, was misguided. Even if it might have worked in isolation, which is questionable, it faced Germany forcing the same mistakes onto the Eurozone, ruling out any hope of an export boom across the Channel. Austerity was wrong. Osborne was wrong. Ask Boris.
Ask Boris, you gotta be joking!!. WE need to run our economy the same way we SHOULD run our finances... I never run my finances in defecit*** (I was for a short while when my wife died.) If I have a problem, I cut back till its resolved, spending money like Brown and what Corbyn WANTED TO DO are never the answer..
Wasn't there a story about the owner of the Telegraph (or some such) asking his City Editor what he'd meant by the term mortgage in one of his columns, and being horrified to realise most of his staff were in debt?
Do you think the initial reaction to that co-operation will affect it, or do you think it's going to be ongoing regardless of how people react initially?
So far there hasn't really been any reaction from national party level. Political parties at federal state (Bundesland) level do have a relatively high degree of independence, but Mohring (CDU Thuringia chairman, a man with a moral fabric equal to PM Johnson) has acted against a very firm, very publically announced position of the national CDU. Too early to say how this will play out, but the situation in Thuringia will be highly unstable. Few observers expect this nonesense to last very long.
It would be a very good point if there is a material difference between the transitional arrangements and the final deal. If there is then agreeing that the final deal comes into force in, say, another 6 months and the transitional arrangements are extended for the interim period would make a lot of sense. I don't think such an approach is inconsistent with Boris's insistence that we have a deal by the end of this year.
But the deadline for extending the transitional period is at the end of this July, and Boris has legislated to self-deny that option anyway. That is the only option for any form of further transitional arrangements that will not require ratification by Walloonia et al.
While conflicts between no. 10 and 11 are the bread and butter of British politics, isn't this a rather swift one to develop? Note also the releases on HS2 last week.
Possible HS2 phase 3 incoming....
I suspect the bit into Euston to be kicked into the long, long grass.
Also I'm not sure how you build HS2 phase 2 and Northern PowerRail at the same time so it's possible the latter will be prioritised.
HS2 is going to have Euston as its terminus - already they are starting to demolish the current Euston station.
Only in UK could we terminate HS2 at the station that doesn't run HS1 to the Continent.
If only we'd done like France and put all the TGV lines into one Paris station......oh.....
The better comparison is Berlin Hauptbahnhof. Build a London Central Station and run tracks from all the major terminus stations. Although I think Berlin already had better through routes and after Unification there were plenty of bits of the city you could build on (I think Berlin Hbf is just in the old East).
Problem is that the Victorians took a conscious decision to not allow through routes, with only what is now Thameslink getting snuck in (edit: and that only reopened in 1986!). There's too much valuable stuff in the way in London now to be able to build significant through-routes, other than commuter-rail scale such as Thameslink and Crossrail.
Wasn't it more that the various lines were all being built by different private companies and each of the London stations served as their main station and terminus?
Correct, but IIRC there was a Royal Commission or similar that recommended no through lines be permitted. I don't think there was ever a formal ban, rather that it suited the railway companies to follow it (and of course any new rail lines had to receive Parliamentary approval anyway). I read about this in one of Christian Wolmar's books but I don't have it to hand to give chapter and verse.
Mr. JohnL, borrowing needlessly during a boom was unwise, however.
As was the assumption in the MTFS that the extraordinary income rolling in from the City in general and the banks in particular was the new normal on which future spending could be based.
Hmm...
It seems that our current governments plans are based on roasting the goose that lays golden eggs.
I am deeply ashamed to report an entirely unexpected and potentially significant development that has occurred in Germany an hour ago. The Conservatives of Thuringia have aligned forces with the Thuringian AfD to vote a Free Democrat candidate into the office of Minister President of Thuringia. The intention to start a longterm cooperation, or even a formal coalition, are so far being denied, but nevertheless, this constitutes a major taboo break, unprecedented in German post-war and post-cold-war history. The ramifications of this are completely unclear, but it is obvious that this will send seismic tremors through the German political landscape for the foreseeable future.
Just to be clear, you are saying that the CDU has voted for a FDU person to be Minister President, at the same time as the AfD has also voted for the same FDU person to be Minister President. not that the CDU has voted for an AfD person?
The Buttigieg Sanders gap in the polling is unexplainable.
The lack of disclosure over the demographic numbers of these polls is frustrating.
How could they miss Buttigeig so badly?
Low turnout election, where one candidate has incredible infrastructure was always at risk of throwing a surprise.
Especially when said candidate was demonstratably popular as a repository for second choices.
The entrance poll is instructive.
Sanders was leading, but only just. Buttigieg got his vote out, and then converted a fair number of undecideds and unviable. In many ways Buttigieg was unlucky. If Klobuchar hadn't surged in the last two weeks, he'd have probably been on North of 30%.
It would be a very good point if there is a material difference between the transitional arrangements and the final deal. If there is then agreeing that the final deal comes into force in, say, another 6 months and the transitional arrangements are extended for the interim period would make a lot of sense. I don't think such an approach is inconsistent with Boris's insistence that we have a deal by the end of this year.
But the deadline for extending the transitional period is at the end of this July, and Boris has legislated to self-deny that option anyway. That is the only option for any form of further transitional arrangements that will not require ratification by Walloonia et al.
It can be built into the final agreement. Nothing is impossible if all parties agree.
I am deeply ashamed to report an entirely unexpected and potentially significant development that has occurred in Germany an hour ago. The Conservatives of Thuringia have aligned forces with the Thuringian AfD to vote a Free Democrat candidate into the office of Minister President of Thuringia. The intention to start a longterm cooperation, or even a formal coalition, are so far being denied, but nevertheless, this constitutes a major taboo break, unprecedented in German post-war and post-cold-war history. The ramifications of this are completely unclear, but it is obvious that this will send seismic tremors through the German political landscape for the foreseeable future.
Just to be clear, you are saying that the CDU has voted for a FDU person to be Minister President, at the same time as the AfD has also voted for the same FDU person to be Minister President. not that the CDU has voted for an AfD person?
I have always thought cruise ships must be hell anyway and hell raised to a beefy exponent when everyone gets diarrhoea and you are locked in your cabin for 3 days. On the ship in Japan they are locked in their cabins for 2 weeks...
The Buttigieg Sanders gap in the polling is unexplainable.
The lack of disclosure over the demographic numbers of these polls is frustrating.
How could they miss Buttigeig so badly?
Low turnout election, where one candidate has incredible infrastructure was always at risk of throwing a surprise.
Especially when said candidate was demonstratably popular as a repository for second choices.
The entrance poll is instructive.
Sanders was leading, but only just. Buttigieg got his vote out, and then converted a fair number of undecideds and unviable. In many ways Buttigieg was unlucky. If Klobuchar hadn't surged in the last two weeks, he'd have probably been on North of 30%.
Thinking about New Hampshire - I note that it permits (even 'encourages' according to wiki) write-ins for people not on the ballot. Might Bloomberg get a meaningful non-zero score (ie above 1%) here - particularly if previous Biden voters are considering other options - and is there a way to bet on that?
It would be a very good point if there is a material difference between the transitional arrangements and the final deal. If there is then agreeing that the final deal comes into force in, say, another 6 months and the transitional arrangements are extended for the interim period would make a lot of sense. I don't think such an approach is inconsistent with Boris's insistence that we have a deal by the end of this year.
I have always thought cruise ships must be hell anyway and hell raised to a beefy exponent when everyone gets diarrhoea and you are locked in your cabin for 3 days. On the ship in Japan they are locked in their cabins for 2 weeks...
It would be a very good point if there is a material difference between the transitional arrangements and the final deal. If there is then agreeing that the final deal comes into force in, say, another 6 months and the transitional arrangements are extended for the interim period would make a lot of sense. I don't think such an approach is inconsistent with Boris's insistence that we have a deal by the end of this year.
But the deadline for extending the transitional period is at the end of this July, and Boris has legislated to self-deny that option anyway. That is the only option for any form of further transitional arrangements that will not require ratification by Walloonia et al.
It can be built into the final agreement. Nothing is impossible if all parties agree.
But doesn't the final agreement require ratification by all the EU27 and their sub-divisions where required?
The UK is in great danger of falling of a cliff edge into a no-deal (sorry "Australia deal') on December 31st.
It would be a very good point if there is a material difference between the transitional arrangements and the final deal. If there is then agreeing that the final deal comes into force in, say, another 6 months and the transitional arrangements are extended for the interim period would make a lot of sense. I don't think such an approach is inconsistent with Boris's insistence that we have a deal by the end of this year.
But the deadline for extending the transitional period is at the end of this July, and Boris has legislated to self-deny that option anyway. That is the only option for any form of further transitional arrangements that will not require ratification by Walloonia et al.
It can be built into the final agreement. Nothing is impossible if all parties agree.
But doesn't the final agreement require ratification by all the EU27 and their sub-divisions where required?
The UK is in great danger of falling of a cliff edge into a no-deal (sorry "Australia deal') on December 31st.
Yes it does but the risk is not just ours. Several EZ countries already teetering on the edge of recession are very dependent upon their UK exports. The pressure on anyone trying to step out of line will be intense. There is clearly not no risk but I think it is a modest one. Should be clearer one way or another by July.
I have always thought cruise ships must be hell anyway and hell raised to a beefy exponent when everyone gets diarrhoea and you are locked in your cabin for 3 days. On the ship in Japan they are locked in their cabins for 2 weeks...
I am deeply ashamed to report an entirely unexpected and potentially significant development that has occurred in Germany an hour ago. The Conservatives of Thuringia have aligned forces with the Thuringian AfD to vote a Free Democrat candidate into the office of Minister President of Thuringia. The intention to start a longterm cooperation, or even a formal coalition, are so far being denied, but nevertheless, this constitutes a major taboo break, unprecedented in German post-war and post-cold-war history. The ramifications of this are completely unclear, but it is obvious that this will send seismic tremors through the German political landscape for the foreseeable future.
Just to be clear, you are saying that the CDU has voted for a FDU person to be Minister President, at the same time as the AfD has also voted for the same FDU person to be Minister President. not that the CDU has voted for an AfD person?
Correct.
Like the Conservatives and BNP voting for a LibDem to become PM?
It would be a very good point if there is a material difference between the transitional arrangements and the final deal. If there is then agreeing that the final deal comes into force in, say, another 6 months and the transitional arrangements are extended for the interim period would make a lot of sense. I don't think such an approach is inconsistent with Boris's insistence that we have a deal by the end of this year.
But the deadline for extending the transitional period is at the end of this July, and Boris has legislated to self-deny that option anyway. That is the only option for any form of further transitional arrangements that will not require ratification by Walloonia et al.
It can be built into the final agreement. Nothing is impossible if all parties agree.
But doesn't the final agreement require ratification by all the EU27 and their sub-divisions where required?
The UK is in great danger of falling of a cliff edge into a no-deal (sorry "Australia deal') on December 31st.
Yes it does but the risk is not just ours. Several EZ countries already teetering on the edge of recession are very dependent upon their UK exports. The pressure on anyone trying to step out of line will be intense. There is clearly not no risk but I think it is a modest one. Should be clearer one way or another by July.
Yes but it only takes one single part of the EU to say no and we won't have a deal and a lot of those parts will be voting individually in places where pressure may not work or may have the opposite effect.
And some parts of the EU really won't care if us leaving causes problems for another part of the EU.
It would be a very good point if there is a material difference between the transitional arrangements and the final deal. If there is then agreeing that the final deal comes into force in, say, another 6 months and the transitional arrangements are extended for the interim period would make a lot of sense. I don't think such an approach is inconsistent with Boris's insistence that we have a deal by the end of this year.
But the deadline for extending the transitional period is at the end of this July, and Boris has legislated to self-deny that option anyway. That is the only option for any form of further transitional arrangements that will not require ratification by Walloonia et al.
It can be built into the final agreement. Nothing is impossible if all parties agree.
But doesn't the final agreement require ratification by all the EU27 and their sub-divisions where required?
The UK is in great danger of falling of a cliff edge into a no-deal (sorry "Australia deal') on December 31st.
Yes it does but the risk is not just ours. Several EZ countries already teetering on the edge of recession are very dependent upon their UK exports. The pressure on anyone trying to step out of line will be intense. There is clearly not no risk but I think it is a modest one. Should be clearer one way or another by July.
Let's hope the Taoiseach in July isn't from Sinn Fein then, and that the Spanish have had a change of heart over Gibraltar.
But doesn't the final agreement require ratification by all the EU27 and their sub-divisions where required?
The UK is in great danger of falling of a cliff edge into a no-deal (sorry "Australia deal') on December 31st.
The expectation by the EU is that the final agreement won't need ratification by the 27 countries. That is because it will be limited in scope to be just a trade agreement, which is a competence of the EU itself.
It's clearly impossible for a full treaty ratification to be done by the timetable Boris has unwisely hitched himself to, so there really isn't any choice in this. As a result lots of significant issues won't be in any agreement. Note that even the limited Canada deal required full ratification because it was deemed to be a 'mixed' deal (trade and other matters).
I am deeply ashamed to report an entirely unexpected and potentially significant development that has occurred in Germany an hour ago. The Conservatives of Thuringia have aligned forces with the Thuringian AfD to vote a Free Democrat candidate into the office of Minister President of Thuringia. The intention to start a longterm cooperation, or even a formal coalition, are so far being denied, but nevertheless, this constitutes a major taboo break, unprecedented in German post-war and post-cold-war history. The ramifications of this are completely unclear, but it is obvious that this will send seismic tremors through the German political landscape for the foreseeable future.
Ugh, sympathies.
I imagine that he'll struggle to form a state government, though? I see he's bid to include the Greens - it looks really unlikely that they'll agree. What is the position if he is unable to form a majority government?
Ramelow, who he's replaced, was the first president from The Left Party, and personally well-liked. I imagine it will energise their support.
I am deeply ashamed to report an entirely unexpected and potentially significant development that has occurred in Germany an hour ago. The Conservatives of Thuringia have aligned forces with the Thuringian AfD to vote a Free Democrat candidate into the office of Minister President of Thuringia. The intention to start a longterm cooperation, or even a formal coalition, are so far being denied, but nevertheless, this constitutes a major taboo break, unprecedented in German post-war and post-cold-war history. The ramifications of this are completely unclear, but it is obvious that this will send seismic tremors through the German political landscape for the foreseeable future.
Just to be clear, you are saying that the CDU has voted for a FDU person to be Minister President, at the same time as the AfD has also voted for the same FDU person to be Minister President. not that the CDU has voted for an AfD person?
Correct.
Like the Conservatives and BNP* voting for a LibDem to become PM?
It would be a very good point if there is a material difference between the transitional arrangements and the final deal. If there is then agreeing that the final deal comes into force in, say, another 6 months and the transitional arrangements are extended for the interim period would make a lot of sense. I don't think such an approach is inconsistent with Boris's insistence that we have a deal by the end of this year.
But the deadline for extending the transitional period is at the end of this July, and Boris has legislated to self-deny that option anyway. That is the only option for any form of further transitional arrangements that will not require ratification by Walloonia et al.
It can be built into the final agreement. Nothing is impossible if all parties agree.
But doesn't the final agreement require ratification by all the EU27 and their sub-divisions where required?
The UK is in great danger of falling of a cliff edge into a no-deal (sorry "Australia deal') on December 31st.
Yes it does but the risk is not just ours. Several EZ countries already teetering on the edge of recession are very dependent upon their UK exports. The pressure on anyone trying to step out of line will be intense. There is clearly not no risk but I think it is a modest one. Should be clearer one way or another by July.
Yes but it only takes one single part of the EU to say no and we won't have a deal and a lot of those parts will be voting individually in places where pressure may not work or may have the opposite effect.
And some parts of the EU really won't care if us leaving causes problems for another part of the EU.
I have always thought cruise ships must be hell anyway and hell raised to a beefy exponent when everyone gets diarrhoea and you are locked in your cabin for 3 days. On the ship in Japan they are locked in their cabins for 2 weeks...
It would be a very good point if there is a material difference between the transitional arrangements and the final deal. If there is then agreeing that the final deal comes into force in, say, another 6 months and the transitional arrangements are extended for the interim period would make a lot of sense. I don't think such an approach is inconsistent with Boris's insistence that we have a deal by the end of this year.
But the deadline for extending the transitional period is at the end of this July, and Boris has legislated to self-deny that option anyway. That is the only option for any form of further transitional arrangements that will not require ratification by Walloonia et al.
It can be built into the final agreement. Nothing is impossible if all parties agree.
But doesn't the final agreement require ratification by all the EU27 and their sub-divisions where required?
The UK is in great danger of falling of a cliff edge into a no-deal (sorry "Australia deal') on December 31st.
Yes it does but the risk is not just ours. Several EZ countries already teetering on the edge of recession are very dependent upon their UK exports. The pressure on anyone trying to step out of line will be intense. There is clearly not no risk but I think it is a modest one. Should be clearer one way or another by July.
Let's hope the Taoiseach in July isn't from Sinn Fein then, and that the Spanish have had a change of heart over Gibraltar.
The Irish have probably greater reasons for avoiding no deal than we do. They will be in the camp pressing for yes. The Spanish have been pragmatic to date entering into bilateral arrangements re residents etc. It's not impossible. It's not likely.
Jeez. A hundred years ago, 100s of their student predecessors died in the trenches, never completing their education.
In my experience military officers, though not exactly pacifists, are almost invariably anti-war. If pacifist students want to make freshers' fair a safe space it's the politicians they need to keep out.
So... there were three New Hampshire polls with (at least some) February polling out yesterday. And they all show (even before Iowa) some Mayor Pete movement.
He's second on 15% with Suffolk, and on 17% with Emerson, while he's third on 14% with St Alselm. Sanders leads with the first two polls, and is tied with Biden in the third.
One would expect Biden and Klobuchar to fall back after Iowa, to the benefit of Buttigieg. And Sanders must be hoping to gain from Warren.
Right now, I'd reckon that (removing undecideds) Sanders and Buttigieg are probably both on to get something in the mid-20s. Sanders is favourite, but not overwhelmingly so.
If Biden does come fourth again in New Hampshire, and Mayor Pete wins it, then the moderate side of the Democratic race becomes very interesting. Will those who support Biden solely because of his elect-ability stick with him?
It would be a very good point if there is a material difference between the transitional arrangements and the final deal. If there is then agreeing that the final deal comes into force in, say, another 6 months and the transitional arrangements are extended for the interim period would make a lot of sense. I don't think such an approach is inconsistent with Boris's insistence that we have a deal by the end of this year.
But the deadline for extending the transitional period is at the end of this July, and Boris has legislated to self-deny that option anyway. That is the only option for any form of further transitional arrangements that will not require ratification by Walloonia et al.
It can be built into the final agreement. Nothing is impossible if all parties agree.
But doesn't the final agreement require ratification by all the EU27 and their sub-divisions where required?
The UK is in great danger of falling of a cliff edge into a no-deal (sorry "Australia deal') on December 31st.
Yes it does but the risk is not just ours. Several EZ countries already teetering on the edge of recession are very dependent upon their UK exports. The pressure on anyone trying to step out of line will be intense. There is clearly not no risk but I think it is a modest one. Should be clearer one way or another by July.
Let's hope the Taoiseach in July isn't from Sinn Fein then, and that the Spanish have had a change of heart over Gibraltar.
The Irish have probably greater reasons for avoiding no deal than we do. They will be in the camp pressing for yes. The Spanish have been pragmatic to date entering into bilateral arrangements re residents etc. It's not impossible. It's not likely.
Sinn Fein's raison d'etre is to bring about a united Irish Republic. A no-deal disaster which they could wholly, and rightly, blame on the Brits is the single most likely thing in the near future that could bring that about.
I am deeply ashamed to report an entirely unexpected and potentially significant development that has occurred in Germany an hour ago. The Conservatives of Thuringia have aligned forces with the Thuringian AfD to vote a Free Democrat candidate into the office of Minister President of Thuringia. The intention to start a longterm cooperation, or even a formal coalition, are so far being denied, but nevertheless, this constitutes a major taboo break, unprecedented in German post-war and post-cold-war history. The ramifications of this are completely unclear, but it is obvious that this will send seismic tremors through the German political landscape for the foreseeable future.
Just to be clear, you are saying that the CDU has voted for a FDU person to be Minister President, at the same time as the AfD has also voted for the same FDU person to be Minister President. not that the CDU has voted for an AfD person?
Correct.
Like the Conservatives and BNP voting for a LibDem to become PM?
Just about, the difference is: the FDP has been lurching to the right for the last couple of decades, the current version of the LibDems is clearly more centrist.
I am deeply ashamed to report an entirely unexpected and potentially significant development that has occurred in Germany an hour ago. The Conservatives of Thuringia have aligned forces with the Thuringian AfD to vote a Free Democrat candidate into the office of Minister President of Thuringia. The intention to start a longterm cooperation, or even a formal coalition, are so far being denied, but nevertheless, this constitutes a major taboo break, unprecedented in German post-war and post-cold-war history. The ramifications of this are completely unclear, but it is obvious that this will send seismic tremors through the German political landscape for the foreseeable future.
Oh the irony.
English conservatives morph into English AfD = national triumph.
Thuringian conservatives happen to once vote the same way as Thuringian AfD = return of Lebensraum.
I know Trump was a big baby not shaking Pelosi's hand, but she looked bloody awful pretending to do her tax returns while he was speaking and then ripping us his speech.
Whatever happened to when they go low, we go high?
Why do some people just post Twitter links without adding personal commentary about why they think posting them is relevant? Do they believe that it’s some sort of public service?
To be fair the Twitter posts or threads that are posted on here without comment are often quite interesting or relevant to the ongoing discussion.
I am deeply ashamed to report an entirely unexpected and potentially significant development that has occurred in Germany an hour ago. The Conservatives of Thuringia have aligned forces with the Thuringian AfD to vote a Free Democrat candidate into the office of Minister President of Thuringia. The intention to start a longterm cooperation, or even a formal coalition, are so far being denied, but nevertheless, this constitutes a major taboo break, unprecedented in German post-war and post-cold-war history. The ramifications of this are completely unclear, but it is obvious that this will send seismic tremors through the German political landscape for the foreseeable future.
Ugh, sympathies.
I imagine that he'll struggle to form a state government, though? I see he's bid to include the Greens - it looks really unlikely that they'll agree. What is the position if he is unable to form a majority government?
Ramelow, who he's replaced, was the first president from The Left Party, and personally well-liked. I imagine it will energise their support.
Ramelow's personal approval rating across all voters was >70%. The Linke is basically a miror image of the Labour far left section.
He will very much struggle to form a government. Half an hour ago he rejected any kind of ongoing cooperation with the AfD. The problem is, FDP, CDU, SPD+Greens are far short of a majority. Without either Linke or AfD there is only the option of a minority government.
I know Trump was a big baby not shaking Pelosi's hand, but she looked bloody awful pretending to do her tax returns while he was speaking and then ripping us his speech.
Whatever happened to when they go low, we go high?
Just got tired of being trolled, I guess.
The idea that the Democrats should sit passively through a partisan tirade of that nature, because... decorum, is just silly.
I am deeply ashamed to report an entirely unexpected and potentially significant development that has occurred in Germany an hour ago. The Conservatives of Thuringia have aligned forces with the Thuringian AfD to vote a Free Democrat candidate into the office of Minister President of Thuringia. The intention to start a longterm cooperation, or even a formal coalition, are so far being denied, but nevertheless, this constitutes a major taboo break, unprecedented in German post-war and post-cold-war history. The ramifications of this are completely unclear, but it is obvious that this will send seismic tremors through the German political landscape for the foreseeable future.
Ugh, sympathies.
I imagine that he'll struggle to form a state government, though? I see he's bid to include the Greens - it looks really unlikely that they'll agree. What is the position if he is unable to form a majority government?
Ramelow, who he's replaced, was the first president from The Left Party, and personally well-liked. I imagine it will energise their support.
Ramelow's personal approval rating across all voters was >70%. The Linke is basically a miror image of the Labour far left section.
He will very much struggle to form a government. Half an hour ago he rejected any kind of ongoing cooperation with the AfD. The problem is, FDP, CDU, SPD+Greens are far short of a majority. Without either Linke or AfD there is only the option of a minority government.
Numbers from Wikipidia:
Total Seats: 90
AdF: 29 Linke: 22 CDU: 21 SPD: 8 Green: 5 FD: 5
So CDU SDP, Green and FD have between them 39, 7 short of a majority.
I am deeply ashamed to report an entirely unexpected and potentially significant development that has occurred in Germany an hour ago. The Conservatives of Thuringia have aligned forces with the Thuringian AfD to vote a Free Democrat candidate into the office of Minister President of Thuringia. The intention to start a longterm cooperation, or even a formal coalition, are so far being denied, but nevertheless, this constitutes a major taboo break, unprecedented in German post-war and post-cold-war history. The ramifications of this are completely unclear, but it is obvious that this will send seismic tremors through the German political landscape for the foreseeable future.
Oh the irony.
English conservatives morph into English AfD = national triumph.
Thuringian conservatives happen to once vote the same way as Thuringian AfD = return of Lebensraum.
As I said, a taboo has been broken.
Given our history a lifespan ago, the rejection of nationalist politics has been the central totemic point of our political and societal basic agreement.
I know Trump was a big baby not shaking Pelosi's hand, but she looked bloody awful pretending to do her tax returns while he was speaking and then ripping us his speech.
Whatever happened to when they go low, we go high?
Just got tired of being trolled, I guess.
The idea that the Democrats should sit passively through a partisan tirade of that nature, because... decorum, is just silly.
You don't have to be passive. You can respect the office, then call out of his BS.
They are in danger of falling into the trap of Labour. American's are incredibly patriotic, especially in middle America, they believe in the system, the offices of state etc. If you spend you time disrespecting that, don't be surprised if they aren't very impressed with you. It's like Jezza not singing the national anthem type stuff.
Now you might say, well that is what the Orange man does. But most people don't take any notice of Trump's trolling on the twitter machine, but they do watch stuff like the state of the nation address.
I know Trump was a big baby not shaking Pelosi's hand, but she looked bloody awful pretending to do her tax returns while he was speaking and then ripping us his speech.
Whatever happened to when they go low, we go high?
Just got tired of being trolled, I guess.
The idea that the Democrats should sit passively through a partisan tirade of that nature, because... decorum, is just silly.
You don't have to be passive. You can respect the office, then call out of his BS.
They are in danger of falling into the trap of Labour. American's are incredibly patriotic, especially in middle America, they believe in the system, the offices of state etc. If you spend you time disrespecting that, don't be surprised if they aren't very impressed with you. It's like Jezza not singing the national anthem type stuff.
Now you might say, well that is what the Orange man does. But most people don't take any notice of Trump's trolling on the twitter machine, but they do watch stuff like the state of the nation address.
Pelosi should know better, though. After all, it was she who was so very wary of going down the impeachment route given the dangers for the Dems at the ballot box in doing so.
Many people, regardless of what they think of the despicable Orange One, do not like electoral elites overturning election (and referendum) results. While I personally think Trump is treasonous and should have been removed from office, I can also see that many think that with an election this year, that task should be left to the electorate, not some partisan process in Congress.
Alas, the Dems futile manouevring have led to Trump's highest approval rating in a long while - 49%. I think it is now better than evens that Trump wins re-election, so the Dems (and the US') only hope now is to take both Houses and re-impeach him after the election. But if they go that route, they better be sure before they start that they can go all the way to removal from office.
[Purely fun idle speculation - Makes me wonder if Trump will remove Pence as his VEEP choice and put Ivanka on the ticket, so that if he is removed, the family keep the presidency ...]
Why do some people just post Twitter links without adding personal commentary about why they think posting them is relevant? Do they believe that it’s some sort of public service?
To be fair the Twitter posts or threads that are posted on here without comment are often quite interesting or relevant to the ongoing discussion.
I notice the Bernie mob on twitter are very angry about who they now call #CheatinPete or #MayorCheat.
Trump is definitely going to be using that going forward.
What’s their main complaint? He won?
The whole conspiracy theory involving the individuals who work for the company behind the app that failed combined with that his campaign paid them for services. According to the more nuttier elements, it is all a DNC stitch up.
I notice the Bernie mob on twitter are very angry about who they now call #CheatinPete or #MayorCheat.
Trump is definitely going to be using that going forward.
What’s their main complaint? He won?
The whole conspiracy theory involving the individuals who work for the company behind the app that failed and the fact his campaign paid them for services.
They’ve obviously been driven around the South Bend.
I notice the Bernie mob on twitter are very angry about who they now call #CheatinPete or #MayorCheat.
Trump is definitely going to be using that going forward.
What’s their main complaint? He won?
The whole conspiracy theory involving the individuals who work for the company behind the app that failed combined with that his campaign paid them for services. According to the more nuttier elements, it is all a DNC stitch up.
Hopefully the DNC emails are more secure this time round...
I notice the Bernie mob on twitter are very angry about who they now call #CheatinPete or #MayorCheat.
Trump is definitely going to be using that going forward.
What’s their main complaint? He won?
He isn't demonstrably left enough. And that's the reason why I'm not certain the Don will be able to exploit it. President Pete will obviously not be voted in by the Trumpian core, but receiving flak from the Bernie gang might be helpful to sway moderate republicans, there are still some of them left, even if they are quite.
So the paper which called judges “Enemies of the People” has now realised that journalists too can be picked on when it doesn't suit those in power.
How ironic. Better late than never, I suppose.
I sympathise with all of this, of course, but there is a bit more to be said. We live in a Parliamentary democracy. Ministers are accountable to parliament, and parliament to the people. A government is entitled to take the view that it is Parliament, and its many select committees and other ramifications, who should be asking the questions, scrutinising and holding it to account. All of these proceedings are now made available freely online, via the BBC Parliament channel and so on.
I wonder whether journalists have set themselves up as 'better than parliament' in holding government to account and by doing parliament's job has allowed parliament to become supine and pointless in many respects.
What journalists want is a running commentary on everything that someone can hold a grievance about, and constantly to hold government up to attack - regardless of who is in government.
Why should government not say to journalism 'Try reporting parliament for a change, instead of setting up as a rival to it'.
BTW I think the Today programme has marginally more interesting people on it now that it is under a ministerial boycott. Anyone agree?
Looking at the areas that are up for election in 3 months, i think its very possible that a lot of seats and some councils could go from red to blue.
yes the new Lab Leader may get some bounce, but equally a big define in his first 6 weeks as leader could start to define his leadership from the start.
Given, a) the length of the Lab leadership contest, and b) that it already seems lickly we know who will win, he may not get much coverage of his victory.
So the paper which called judges “Enemies of the People” has now realised that journalists too can be picked on when it doesn't suit those in power.
How ironic. Better late than never, I suppose.
I sympathise with all of this, of course, but there is a bit more to be said. We live in a Parliamentary democracy. Ministers are accountable to parliament, and parliament to the people. A government is entitled to take the view that it is Parliament, and its many select committees and other ramifications, who should be asking the questions, scrutinising and holding it to account. All of these proceedings are now made available freely online, via the BBC Parliament channel and so on.
I wonder whether journalists have set themselves up as 'better than parliament' in holding government to account and by doing parliament's job has allowed parliament to become supine and pointless in many respects.
What journalists want is a running commentary on everything that someone can hold a grievance about, and constantly to hold government up to attack - regardless of who is in government.
Why should government not say to journalism 'Try reporting parliament for a change, instead of setting up as a rival to it'.
BTW I think the Today programme has marginally more interesting people on it now that it is under a ministerial boycott. Anyone agree?
That’s not the government’s complaint. It just wants to give news exclusively to pliant journalists.
That’s not the government’s complaint. It just wants to give news exclusively to pliant journalists.
Pliant journalists such as those from the Guardian and the BBC, in the case of the current row.
Doesn't compute, does it? The complaints are incoherent: people are complaining about what they would like to think justifies their complaint, not about what actually happened.
Pelosi should know better, though. After all, it was she who was so very wary of going down the impeachment route given the dangers for the Dems at the ballot box in doing so.
Many people, regardless of what they think of the despicable Orange One, do not like electoral elites overturning election (and referendum) results. While I personally think Trump is treasonous and should have been removed from office, I can also see that many think that with an election this year, that task should be left to the electorate, not some partisan process in Congress.
Alas, the Dems futile manouevring have led to Trump's highest approval rating in a long while - 49%. I think it is now better than evens that Trump wins re-election, so the Dems (and the US') only hope now is to take both Houses and re-impeach him after the election. But if they go that route, they better be sure before they start that they can go all the way to removal from office.
[Purely fun idle speculation - Makes me wonder if Trump will remove Pence as his VEEP choice and put Ivanka on the ticket, so that if he is removed, the family keep the presidency ...]
Has the Trump approval rating really moved much? The 538 tracker has it stuck in pretty much exactly the same range as it's pretty much always been.
Now, it's definitely at the top of the range. But... it's not really moved from there.
Personally, I think the Don has to be given another term. His policies have aped Lionel Barber and Ted Heath, with massive government deficits pump priming the economy. (People haven't noticed this, but 2020 will have the third largest fiscal deficit in post WW2 history, with only the Great Recession years exceeding it.) That's extraordinary fiscal largess for a period when the economy is growing nicely.
It can't be left to a Democrat to pick up the pieces. It has to be the Donald who faces a recession with no fiscal room for maneuver. So, I'm praying that Trump is reelected.
So the paper which called judges “Enemies of the People” has now realised that journalists too can be picked on when it doesn't suit those in power.
How ironic. Better late than never, I suppose.
I sympathise with all of this, of course, but there is a bit more to be said. We live in a Parliamentary democracy. Ministers are accountable to parliament, and parliament to the people. A government is entitled to take the view that it is Parliament, and its many select committees and other ramifications, who should be asking the questions, scrutinising and holding it to account. All of these proceedings are now made available freely online, via the BBC Parliament channel and so on.
I wonder whether journalists have set themselves up as 'better than parliament' in holding government to account and by doing parliament's job has allowed parliament to become supine and pointless in many respects.
What journalists want is a running commentary on everything that someone can hold a grievance about, and constantly to hold government up to attack - regardless of who is in government.
Why should government not say to journalism 'Try reporting parliament for a change, instead of setting up as a rival to it'.
BTW I think the Today programme has marginally more interesting people on it now that it is under a ministerial boycott. Anyone agree?
That’s not the government’s complaint. It just wants to give news exclusively to pliant journalists.
I am not disagreeing with that point of course. Though I think the government is mistaken if it thinks such a strategy can work.
That’s not the government’s complaint. It just wants to give news exclusively to pliant journalists.
Pliant journalists such as those from the Guardian and the BBC, in the case of the current row.
Doesn't compute, does it? The complaints are incoherent: people are complaining about what they would like to think justifies their complaint, not about what actually happened.
They’re establishing the principle of picking and choosing. The fact they’ve picked and chosen not too egregiously this time would set a very handy precedent for when they want to play harder ball.
Anyway, if the Democrats want a competent candidate, I’d have thought that Pete Buttigieg just showed his credentials on that front to very best advantage.
That’s not the government’s complaint. It just wants to give news exclusively to pliant journalists.
Pliant journalists such as those from the Guardian and the BBC, in the case of the current row.
Doesn't compute, does it? The complaints are incoherent: people are complaining about what they would like to think justifies their complaint, not about what actually happened.
They’re establishing the principle of picking and choosing. The fact they’ve picked and chosen not too egregiously this time would set a very handy precedent for when they want to play harder ball.
Not really. If they really want a precedent then Alastair Campbell provided a rich store. Or even Harold Wilson for that matter.
In any case we should be scrupulous about the facts, rather than throw stones on an entirely false basis, as many are doing. That's kinda the whole point, isn't it?
Anyway, if the Democrats want a competent candidate, I’d have thought that Pete Buttigieg just showed his credentials on that front to very best advantage.
The reason the Iowa caucuses matter, is because they test the ability of a candidate to organise. Buttigieg has proved he has that skill. And Biden has proved he does not.
Looking at the areas that are up for election in 3 months, i think its very possible that a lot of seats and some councils could go from red to blue.
yes the new Lab Leader may get some bounce, but equally a big define in his first 6 weeks as leader could start to define his leadership from the start.
Given, a) the length of the Lab leadership contest, and b) that it already seems lickly we know who will win, he may not get much coverage of his victory.
Plus he is utterly uninspiring. No matter how he likes to paint his backstory, he has the demeanour and attitudes of a technocrat with zero personality.
There is nothing about him that shouts optimism, hope, positivity.
Plus if he persists with ideas like extending the franchise to EU citizens, he will continue to alienate significant sectors of the voting population.
It strikes me as ironic that some of the things that people feared about Corbyn are now being done by Boris’s Tories:-
1. Attacks on the judiciary. 2. Limiting scrutiny by Parliament. 3. Limiting challenges to government actions by the public 4. Wanting to control how the press reports them. 5. Turning a blind eye to some of the associations of their MPs (see the silence on Daniel Kawcyznski’s extra-curricular venture). 6. Doing the bare minimum to root out their own bigotry - whatever happened to the Tory party’s inquiry into anti-Muslim prejudice?
What next one wonders. We’ve already had the rescue of a failing private company and the cosying up to a foreign Communist government.
Anyway, if the Democrats want a competent candidate, I’d have thought that Pete Buttigieg just showed his credentials on that front to very best advantage.
The reason the Iowa caucuses matter, is because they test the ability of a candidate to organise. Buttigieg has proved he has that skill. And Biden has proved he does not.
I 100% agree with both you and AlastairMeeks.
Biden lacks not just the ability to organise but also appears to lack the ability to consistently get to the end of a sentence. Why Biden is even considered a contender is beyond me.
That’s not the government’s complaint. It just wants to give news exclusively to pliant journalists.
Pliant journalists such as those from the Guardian and the BBC, in the case of the current row.
Doesn't compute, does it? The complaints are incoherent: people are complaining about what they would like to think justifies their complaint, not about what actually happened.
From the various bits of info around, it sounds like the government don’t like the Lobby system specifically, rather than journalists in general.
Anyway, if the Democrats want a competent candidate, I’d have thought that Pete Buttigieg just showed his credentials on that front to very best advantage.
The reason the Iowa caucuses matter, is because they test the ability of a candidate to organise. Buttigieg has proved he has that skill. And Biden has proved he does not.
I 100% agree with both you and AlastairMeeks.
Biden lacks not just the ability to organise but also appears to lack the ability to consistently get to the end of a sentence. Why Biden is even considered a contender is beyond me.
It's funny, until this year's Democratic nomination, I'd always thought that "charisma" meant the ability to engage people, to have them want to listen to what you had to say, to charm and attract people.
Now I realise that it means you must have visible signs of mental decline.
Comments
Even then, they don't seem to have been quite as far out as you are implying, if the final week only is the focus. Buttigieg was understated and Biden overstated but Sanders, Warren and Klobuchar seem to be in the right ball park and Sanders does seem to have just about prevailed in the aggregate vote (not the SDEs) which is what the polls were predicting. The weakening of Biden's position was also detected - none of the final week polls had him ahead, in contrast to earlier weeks.
So I don't think you can damn the usefulness of future primary polls on the back of what we think has happened in the Iowa caucuses [EDIT: Not that your comment actually said that we should.]
Maxing out your credit cards a la Brown , is the road to ruin and is crazy.
The Conservatives of Thuringia have aligned forces with the Thuringian AfD to vote a Free Democrat candidate into the office of Minister President of Thuringia.
The intention to start a longterm cooperation, or even a formal coalition, are so far being denied, but nevertheless, this constitutes a major taboo break, unprecedented in German post-war and post-cold-war history.
The ramifications of this are completely unclear, but it is obvious that this will send seismic tremors through the German political landscape for the foreseeable future.
Do you think the initial reaction to that co-operation will affect it, or do you think it's going to be ongoing regardless of how people react initially?
Political parties at federal state (Bundesland) level do have a relatively high degree of independence, but Mohring (CDU Thuringia chairman, a man with a moral fabric equal to PM Johnson) has acted against a very firm, very publically announced position of the national CDU.
Too early to say how this will play out, but the situation in Thuringia will be highly unstable.
Few observers expect this nonesense to last very long.
It seems that our current governments plans are based on roasting the goose that lays golden eggs.
https://twitter.com/JoshuaBurch99/status/1225004129761841152
Especially when said candidate was demonstratably popular as a repository for second choices.
The entrance poll is instructive.
Sanders was leading, but only just. Buttigieg got his vote out, and then converted a fair number of undecideds and unviable. In many ways Buttigieg was unlucky. If Klobuchar hadn't surged in the last two weeks, he'd have probably been on North of 30%.
I have always thought cruise ships must be hell anyway and hell raised to a beefy exponent when everyone gets diarrhoea and you are locked in your cabin for 3 days. On the ship in Japan they are locked in their cabins for 2 weeks...
The more future events are impacted the more optimistic that appears.
The UK is in great danger of falling of a cliff edge into a no-deal (sorry "Australia deal') on December 31st.
Could be a future pub quiz question, why were the 2020 Games held in 2021?
I’ll change my 1/4 estimate from this morning on the Chinese GP being cancelled, it’s now closer to 1/10.
And some parts of the EU really won't care if us leaving causes problems for another part of the EU.
It's clearly impossible for a full treaty ratification to be done by the timetable Boris has unwisely hitched himself to, so there really isn't any choice in this. As a result lots of significant issues won't be in any agreement. Note that even the limited Canada deal required full ratification because it was deemed to be a 'mixed' deal (trade and other matters).
I imagine that he'll struggle to form a state government, though? I see he's bid to include the Greens - it looks really unlikely that they'll agree. What is the position if he is unable to form a majority government?
Ramelow, who he's replaced, was the first president from The Left Party, and personally well-liked. I imagine it will energise their support.
He's second on 15% with Suffolk, and on 17% with Emerson, while he's third on 14% with St Alselm. Sanders leads with the first two polls, and is tied with Biden in the third.
One would expect Biden and Klobuchar to fall back after Iowa, to the benefit of Buttigieg. And Sanders must be hoping to gain from Warren.
Right now, I'd reckon that (removing undecideds) Sanders and Buttigieg are probably both on to get something in the mid-20s. Sanders is favourite, but not overwhelmingly so.
If Biden does come fourth again in New Hampshire, and Mayor Pete wins it, then the moderate side of the Democratic race becomes very interesting. Will those who support Biden solely because of his elect-ability stick with him?
Buttigieg 26.8% (-0.1%)
Sanders 25.2% (+0.1%)
There are now just 29% of precincts still to go.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1225074284323799040?s=20
In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the European Union?
Right: 43 (+3)
Wrong: 46 (-1)
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/jbrzn2vf5s/TheTimes_VI_Results_200203_W.pdf
English conservatives morph into English AfD = national triumph.
Thuringian conservatives happen to once vote the same way as Thuringian AfD = return of Lebensraum.
Whatever happened to when they go low, we go high?
https://twitter.com/AlastairDalton/status/1225074340309405696?s=20
He will very much struggle to form a government. Half an hour ago he rejected any kind of ongoing cooperation with the AfD. The problem is, FDP, CDU, SPD+Greens are far short of a majority. Without either Linke or AfD there is only the option of a minority government.
https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1224787115541696512
The idea that the Democrats should sit passively through a partisan tirade of that nature, because... decorum, is just silly.
I admire her restraint in not clocking him.
Total Seats: 90
AdF: 29
Linke: 22
CDU: 21
SPD: 8
Green: 5
FD: 5
So CDU SDP, Green and FD have between them 39, 7 short of a majority.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Thuringian_state_election
Given our history a lifespan ago, the rejection of nationalist politics has been the central totemic point of our political and societal basic agreement.
What would Con 49, Lab 30 national shares mean in terms of local council results?
On the face of it might be very embarrassing for Lab?
Of course new leader will be elected one month before Locals so might get some sort of bounce.
They are in danger of falling into the trap of Labour. American's are incredibly patriotic, especially in middle America, they believe in the system, the offices of state etc. If you spend you time disrespecting that, don't be surprised if they aren't very impressed with you. It's like Jezza not singing the national anthem type stuff.
Now you might say, well that is what the Orange man does. But most people don't take any notice of Trump's trolling on the twitter machine, but they do watch stuff like the state of the nation address.
We have just passed the 3% point of this Parliament were it to run its full term!
Both as bad as each other, I’d have thought.
Many people, regardless of what they think of the despicable Orange One, do not like electoral elites overturning election (and referendum) results. While I personally think Trump is treasonous and should have been removed from office, I can also see that many think that with an election this year, that task should be left to the electorate, not some partisan process in Congress.
Alas, the Dems futile manouevring have led to Trump's highest approval rating in a long while - 49%. I think it is now better than evens that Trump wins re-election, so the Dems (and the US') only hope now is to take both Houses and re-impeach him after the election. But if they go that route, they better be sure before they start that they can go all the way to removal from office.
[Purely fun idle speculation - Makes me wonder if Trump will remove Pence as his VEEP choice and put Ivanka on the ticket, so that if he is removed, the family keep the presidency ...]
Trump is definitely going to be using that going forward.
How ironic. Better late than never, I suppose.
I wonder whether journalists have set themselves up as 'better than parliament' in holding government to account and by doing parliament's job has allowed parliament to become supine and pointless in many respects.
What journalists want is a running commentary on everything that someone can hold a grievance about, and constantly to hold government up to attack - regardless of who is in government.
Why should government not say to journalism 'Try reporting parliament for a change, instead of setting up as a rival to it'.
BTW I think the Today programme has marginally more interesting people on it now that it is under a ministerial boycott. Anyone agree?
Looking at the areas that are up for election in 3 months, i think its very possible that a lot of seats and some councils could go from red to blue.
yes the new Lab Leader may get some bounce, but equally a big define in his first 6 weeks as leader could start to define his leadership from the start.
Given, a) the length of the Lab leadership contest, and b) that it already seems lickly we know who will win, he may not get much coverage of his victory.
Doesn't compute, does it? The complaints are incoherent: people are complaining about what they would like to think justifies their complaint, not about what actually happened.
Now, it's definitely at the top of the range. But... it's not really moved from there.
Personally, I think the Don has to be given another term. His policies have aped Lionel Barber and Ted Heath, with massive government deficits pump priming the economy. (People haven't noticed this, but 2020 will have the third largest fiscal deficit in post WW2 history, with only the Great Recession years exceeding it.) That's extraordinary fiscal largess for a period when the economy is growing nicely.
It can't be left to a Democrat to pick up the pieces. It has to be the Donald who faces a recession with no fiscal room for maneuver. So, I'm praying that Trump is reelected.
In any case we should be scrupulous about the facts, rather than throw stones on an entirely false basis, as many are doing. That's kinda the whole point, isn't it?
There is nothing about him that shouts optimism, hope, positivity.
Plus if he persists with ideas like extending the franchise to EU citizens, he will continue to alienate significant sectors of the voting population.
1. Attacks on the judiciary.
2. Limiting scrutiny by Parliament.
3. Limiting challenges to government actions by the public
4. Wanting to control how the press reports them.
5. Turning a blind eye to some of the associations of their MPs (see the silence on Daniel Kawcyznski’s extra-curricular venture).
6. Doing the bare minimum to root out their own bigotry - whatever happened to the Tory party’s inquiry into anti-Muslim prejudice?
What next one wonders. We’ve already had the rescue of a failing private company and the cosying up to a foreign Communist government.
Have I missed anything?
Biden lacks not just the ability to organise but also appears to lack the ability to consistently get to the end of a sentence. Why Biden is even considered a contender is beyond me.
Now I realise that it means you must have visible signs of mental decline.