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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Starmer juggernaut storms on and he’s now a 78% chance on Betfair
So far, 264 CLPs have nominated candidates to be leader of the Labour Party.
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Anyway, fpt:-
Another day, another report on the appalling failings and culture which permitted a surgeon to mutilate thousands of women. The Patterson story is a shocker.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/ian-patersons-11-000-patients-face-checks-after-malpractice-report-2sm8wjq2s
What is to be done? What can be done?
Meanwhile I fear that John Lewis is going to go the way of M&S and HBOS. Bizarre senior appointments of people with no relevant experience, appointments of management consultants who charge expensively for bullshit talk but deliver bugger all other than, usually, the loss of experienced and knowledgeable staff and, in the meanwhile, the day to day service suffers (of which, sadly - as it is one of my favourite shops) I have recent experience.
I hope Mayor Pete continues to do well. I have money on him.
Still, in good news it is a lovely spring day here.
But it’s a hell of a gamble for him. If he loses then he’s unlikely to get another go. And he is still very young. Whereas in 4 years time, he’s still young, a fresh face, has some more experience and there is not obvious successor to Trump with Trump’s campaigning ability or appeal.
For the others it’s their last chance.
What's the simplest site or method to do that, that anyone can think of? Without a paid subscription to a site.
Physical assault is just the most serious and extreme form of bullying.
Rather characteristically, Labour seems believe it is one rule for everyone else, and one rule for their friends.
(See also gender equality for top jobs).
Leakey very specifically says that he was *not* personally bullied.
While seen in most organisations, politics with its systems of patronage, is particularly prone to it. Just look at some of the recent antics at the top in this country.
By my reckoning over the last decade the growth rates are:
UK 16.4%
France 10.67%
Germany 15.93%
Euroarea 10.84%
Interesting. Need the 2019 data to finish the decade off but I wonder how it will look in the 2020s.
UK 9.86%
France 7.45%
Germany 14.32%
Eurozone 8.93%
So interestingly despite all the talk about Germany accepting migrants earlier this decade, the UK's growth is a mix of per capita growth and population growth while Germany's is mostly per capita growth without population growht. France and the Euroarea still lagging us per capita but not as much as it appeared with population growth included.
(there's a box at the right lets you change options)
Gives:
UK 10%
France 7%
Germany 14%
from downloaded spreadsheet, assuming I'm doing it the same way - (2018-2010)/2010
If you look at GDP/capita in 2007, you'll see all 3 countries were approximately the same. Now France and the UK are close, with Germany comfortably ahead.
He's probably going to scrape 4th.
In one of the organisations I belong to, we all made a concerted effort to stop a very senior & influential person behaving like a bully to people under him.
He responded by reporting all of us to Human Resources for "bullying him".
By preventing him from throwing his weight around, we were being disrespectful and therefore "intimidating him".
A one-year long external review followed ... the external review concluded that the bully had been bullying and should face discipline.
The bully lawyered up, and his lawyers argued that the external review failed to treat him fairly ... a second external review is ongoing.
It is very easy to see how the Patterson incident happened. It is very, very difficult and time-consuming to deal with such people, if there is a culture of entitlement.
From what I have seen of Bercow, I find it plausible that he would behave badly to juniors. The claims need investigating, but I expect the trajectory to be similar to the case I outlined.
Bercow will claim that those investigating him are the bullies.
I also believe that most of our out performance was in the first half of the decade and we under performed in the second half. Whether that was catch up or Brexit uncertainty can be argued about forever but clearly the latter had at least some part to play. I remain optimistic about the next decade and expect that our outperformance of the EZ will continue, albeit that is a disappointingly low bar.
For example, how many in the Labour Party was Abbott speaking for when she castigated the potential impact of Ed Miliband's proposed mansion tax just prior to the 2015 general election, on the grounds that it would transfer money from the pockets of Londoners fortunate enough to end up owning very high value properties to the benefit of the rest of the UK?
Actually getting rid of even the most egregious is a hard task (I’ve been there, and it is one achievement of which I am unabashedly proud).
Edit: I haven't!
Interestingly the UK started off below the Euro and finished above it, hard to see from that data that the Euro has been a success. Hard to obviously compare nation to nation as the scales are all off, USA consistently much higher chart - I wonder if there's a way to index a date to 100 for all nations chosen?
So 5 more years of being lectured on diversity and equality while they cant actually elect a woman even when it's 4 to 1
https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1225003381896466433
In my experience it could be either. If the targets are unfair or unachieveable its bullying because it is causing unnecessary stress and anxiety in the employee. If they are the standard the firm requires of others in similar roles then it is management.
Before I came to the bar I was the partner in charge of a firm's court department. I was managing 10-15 staff in a high stress situation. Looking back at it now I realise my own stress caused me to be too impatient and occasionally unreasonable. Would any of my staff have accused me of being a bully? Maybe. It's not easy.
Yes, I can see why Cummings is tearing his hair out, or would be if he had any.
I wonder when the Ministry of Truth will be established by Cummings to absorb the govt Press Office?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/02/04/corbyn-government-had-behaved-like-wouldnt-tory-mps-uproar/?li_source=LI&li_medium=li-recommendation-widget
Sanders has only cut Buttigieg's Delegate lead by 0.2% on the latest update.
There is still outstanding votes mostly from the satellite caucuses, it might cut it to 1% but not enough for Sanders to overtake Buttigieg on State Delegates.
Biden might drop behind Klobuchar on Second Votes though, the Satellite caucuses were not good for him while Klobuchar did really well in them.
Germany's industries grew by poaching market share from the rest of Europe.
Materially the only impact on non-euro membership for the UK is that it avoids the fiscal crisis of most euro members.
Also I'm not sure how you build HS2 phase 2 and Northern PowerRail at the same time so it's possible the latter will be prioritised.
At 49 nominations she had 3
At 98 she had 4
At 264 she has 12
MoE variations these.
Now, I do happen to think that at least a few of the last CLPs to nominate will look at Thornberry and see a substantial enough politician to merit a place on the ballot. My guess is that Allin-Khan will get the same treatment too. Both, I'd hazard, will be nominated, but it will not make a difference to the end result.
But I don't think you can convincingly say that it is happening at this stage.
But because Biden is very stubborn and he still has the promise of S.Carolina and a Contested Convention, he won't drop out.
The likeliest outcome right now is a messy contested convention where no one has a majority, don't forget it's PR for the Democrats.
Boris at 52% approval, Farage 30% Corbyn 17%
That's got to be a real kick in the nuts..
I think it was and is pretty selfish myself. Germany has the capacity to significantly increase domestic demand boosting not only their own growth but EZ growth generally. But they don't.
It is starting to feel like the efforts to contain it will fail, which could have huge ramifications for global healthcare systems and the global economy.
To be fair to German budgetary hawks, German debt to GDP is still above 60% and higher than it was at the start of the century when the Euro launched. If they want to get down to say 30-40% of GDP like we had before Brown tanked our economy they've still got a long road ahead of them.