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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Starmer juggernaut storms on and he’s now a 78% chance on Betfair
So far, 264 CLPs have nominated candidates to be leader of the Labour Party.
Comments
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First - like Pete. Or maybe not.
Anyway, fpt:-
Another day, another report on the appalling failings and culture which permitted a surgeon to mutilate thousands of women. The Patterson story is a shocker.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/ian-patersons-11-000-patients-face-checks-after-malpractice-report-2sm8wjq2s
What is to be done? What can be done?
Meanwhile I fear that John Lewis is going to go the way of M&S and HBOS. Bizarre senior appointments of people with no relevant experience, appointments of management consultants who charge expensively for bullshit talk but deliver bugger all other than, usually, the loss of experienced and knowledgeable staff and, in the meanwhile, the day to day service suffers (of which, sadly - as it is one of my favourite shops) I have recent experience.
I hope Mayor Pete continues to do well. I have money on him.
Still, in good news it is a lovely spring day here.0 -
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Hopefully the non-socialist moderates can unite behind Buttigieg. I still believe he's the best shot we have of seeing the back of Trump.0
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Is New Hampshire winner-takes-all regarding the pledged delegates?0
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I would like to think so.Philip_Thompson said:Hopefully the non-socialist moderates can unite behind Buttigieg. I still believe he's the best shot we have of seeing the back of Trump.
But it’s a hell of a gamble for him. If he loses then he’s unlikely to get another go. And he is still very young. Whereas in 4 years time, he’s still young, a fresh face, has some more experience and there is not obvious successor to Trump with Trump’s campaigning ability or appeal.
For the others it’s their last chance.1 -
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Economics question - when the 2019 GDP growth figures are released (should be later this month from memory) I'd be curious to compare how different countries performed over the 2010s as a whole. A lot of people have spoken about a "lost decade" and I'd be curious to see how the UK compares to eg France, Germany, the Eurozone and other G7 economies over the decade.
What's the simplest site or method to do that, that anyone can think of? Without a paid subscription to a site.0 -
Labour proposing Bercow as a bit of political shitz'n'gigglez does now look less than smart.tlg86 said:8 -
No. All Democrat primaries are proportionalGallowgate said:Is New Hampshire winner-takes-all regarding the pledged delegates?
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Is Diane pissed because, whilst he claims he was Black Rod, he ain't no shade of black she recognises......tlg86 said:0 -
Are they using the same technology in NH, as they did in Iowa?MikeSmithson said:
No. All Democrat primaries are proportionalGallowgate said:Is New Hampshire winner-takes-all regarding the pledged delegates?
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Diane Abbot is mistaken if she thinks bullying is restricted to being "intimidated and coerced".MarqueeMark said:
Labour proposing Bercow as a bit of political shitz'n'gigglez does now look less than smart.tlg86 said:
Physical assault is just the most serious and extreme form of bullying.
Rather characteristically, Labour seems believe it is one rule for everyone else, and one rule for their friends.
(See also gender equality for top jobs).0 -
No, NH is a primary, not a caucus.Sandpit said:
Are they using the same technology in NH, as they did in Iowa?MikeSmithson said:
No. All Democrat primaries are proportionalGallowgate said:Is New Hampshire winner-takes-all regarding the pledged delegates?
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FPT for @CyclefreeFoxy said:
From that Times article:Cyclefree said:Another day, another report on the appalling failings and culture which permitted a surgeon to mutilate thousands of women. The Patterson story is a shocker.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/ian-patersons-11-000-patients-face-checks-after-malpractice-report-2sm8wjq2s
What is to be done? What can be done?
"Concerns were first raised about Paterson in 2003 but he was not suspended until 2011, with NHS staff fearing retribution if they spoke out and managers failing to understand what he was doing. He carried on practising privately after being suspended by the NHS and doctors told the inquiry that a manager at Spire said he brought in too much money to stop him working."
This is not predominantly an NHS scandal as much as one relating to the culture of Medicine.
The problem fundamentally is that we go to professionals when we need advice on complex subjects. Whether that advice comes from a doctor, a lawyer, a banker, accountant or priest; we do have to take it on trust. When that trust is breached, or in this case deliberately abused then the whole system is damaged as well as the individual.
Within the NHS the team structure does increase the surveillance of rogue practitioners, but whistle blowing remains contentious*. In private practice there is an obvious incentive to over operate, and for the hospital to enable it.
*for example, in the Health Secretary's own locality:
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/dec/11/matt-hancock-wont-talk-to-us-say-bullied-doctors-at-hospital-in-suffolk0 -
Worth remembering that the report into bullying allegations was not just into Bercow’s conduct but that of MPs as well. There will be quite a few MPs hoping that nothing further is said or done about bullying in the Commons.tlg86 said:0 -
Nevada is, though. And they will not be using it either.Foxy said:
No, NH is a primary, not a caucus.Sandpit said:
Are they using the same technology in NH, as they did in Iowa?MikeSmithson said:
No. All Democrat primaries are proportionalGallowgate said:Is New Hampshire winner-takes-all regarding the pledged delegates?
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There were Black Rods in this country thousands of years before Christ.MarqueeMark said:
Is Diane pissed because, whilst he claims he was Black Rod, he ain't no shade of black she recognises......tlg86 said:
Leakey very specifically says that he was *not* personally bullied.0 -
Thanks. I didn't know Nevada was a caucus.Nigelb said:
Nevada is, though. And they will not be using it either.Foxy said:
No, NH is a primary, not a caucus.Sandpit said:
Are they using the same technology in NH, as they did in Iowa?MikeSmithson said:
No. All Democrat primaries are proportionalGallowgate said:Is New Hampshire winner-takes-all regarding the pledged delegates?
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I’m going to be generous and assume Abbott simply didn’t read the full interview/article.IshmaelZ said:
There were Black Rods in this country thousands of years before Christ.MarqueeMark said:
Is Diane pissed because, whilst he claims he was Black Rod, he ain't no shade of black she recognises......tlg86 said:
Leakey very specifically says that he was *not* personally bullied.
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Voters have to stand by the slot machine representing their choice.rottenborough said:
Thanks. I didn't know Nevada was a caucus.Nigelb said:
Nevada is, though. And they will not be using it either.Foxy said:
No, NH is a primary, not a caucus.Sandpit said:
Are they using the same technology in NH, as they did in Iowa?MikeSmithson said:
No. All Democrat primaries are proportionalGallowgate said:Is New Hampshire winner-takes-all regarding the pledged delegates?
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An excellent metaphor for American politics.Philip_Thompson said:
Voters have to stand by the slot machine representing their choice.rottenborough said:
Thanks. I didn't know Nevada was a caucus.Nigelb said:
Nevada is, though. And they will not be using it either.Foxy said:
No, NH is a primary, not a caucus.Sandpit said:
Are they using the same technology in NH, as they did in Iowa?MikeSmithson said:
No. All Democrat primaries are proportionalGallowgate said:Is New Hampshire winner-takes-all regarding the pledged delegates?
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The state of this: can't get bullied because ...tlg86 said:
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World Bank allows you to make your own charts. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=GB-XC&view=chartPhilip_Thompson said:Economics question - when the 2019 GDP growth figures are released (should be later this month from memory) I'd be curious to compare how different countries performed over the 2010s as a whole. A lot of people have spoken about a "lost decade" and I'd be curious to see how the UK compares to eg France, Germany, the Eurozone and other G7 economies over the decade.
What's the simplest site or method to do that, that anyone can think of? Without a paid subscription to a site.0 -
While conflicts between no. 10 and 11 are the bread and butter of British politics, isn't this a rather swift one to develop? Note also the releases on HS2 last week.rottenborough said:0 -
Indeed, bullies thrive by reducing the confident and robust to quivering, isolated shadows of their former selves.BannedinnParis said:
While seen in most organisations, politics with its systems of patronage, is particularly prone to it. Just look at some of the recent antics at the top in this country.0 -
I see Diane Abbot is trying to ensure she can secure a return to the backbenches asap once Magic grandpa is back on them... it may come as a shock to her to hear that This Week has been cancelled so she can't get that gig back.1
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Thanks. Did this one with the UK, France, Germany and the Eurozone measuring GDP in Constant 2010 USD$ from 2010 to 2018: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD?end=2018&locations=GB-XC-FR-DE&start=2010&view=chartrkrkrk said:
World Bank allows you to make your own charts. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=GB-XC&view=chartPhilip_Thompson said:Economics question - when the 2019 GDP growth figures are released (should be later this month from memory) I'd be curious to compare how different countries performed over the 2010s as a whole. A lot of people have spoken about a "lost decade" and I'd be curious to see how the UK compares to eg France, Germany, the Eurozone and other G7 economies over the decade.
What's the simplest site or method to do that, that anyone can think of? Without a paid subscription to a site.
By my reckoning over the last decade the growth rates are:
UK 16.4%
France 10.67%
Germany 15.93%
Euroarea 10.84%
Interesting. Need the 2019 data to finish the decade off but I wonder how it will look in the 2020s.0 -
The new Speaker really needs to get a grip on this and a conclusion. It is pretty obvious Bercow was blocking any investigations/conclusions when he was in office but we need transparency . Lord help us if we start to feel sorry for Bercow as he is surrounded by unsubstantiated rumours and no way of clearing himself. There just aren't enough showers.YBarddCwsc said:
Diane Abbot is mistaken if she thinks bullying is restricted to being "intimidated and coerced".MarqueeMark said:
Labour proposing Bercow as a bit of political shitz'n'gigglez does now look less than smart.tlg86 said:
Physical assault is just the most serious and extreme form of bullying.
Rather characteristically, Labour seems believe it is one rule for everyone else, and one rule for their friends.
(See also gender equality for top jobs).2 -
Interesting - is it a similar pattern if you look at GDP/Person? (ie how much, if any, of that GDP growth differential is due to population change vs genuine productivity improvements)Philip_Thompson said:
Thanks. Did this one with the UK, France, Germany and the Eurozone measuring GDP in Constant 2010 USD$ from 2010 to 2018: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD?end=2018&locations=GB-XC-FR-DE&start=2010&view=chartrkrkrk said:
World Bank allows you to make your own charts. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=GB-XC&view=chartPhilip_Thompson said:Economics question - when the 2019 GDP growth figures are released (should be later this month from memory) I'd be curious to compare how different countries performed over the 2010s as a whole. A lot of people have spoken about a "lost decade" and I'd be curious to see how the UK compares to eg France, Germany, the Eurozone and other G7 economies over the decade.
What's the simplest site or method to do that, that anyone can think of? Without a paid subscription to a site.
By my reckoning over the last decade the growth rates are:
UK 16.4%
France 10.67%
Germany 15.93%
Euroarea 10.84%
Interesting. Need the 2019 data to finish the decade off but I wonder how it will look in the 2020s.0 -
FPT: Mr. Lennon, a rescheduling is unlikely and a new race, according to my Twitter list (mostly well-informed types) is not possible.0
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Apparently we'll be getting an announcement today on F1 in China.0
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Good question. Same countries, same timescale, GDP per capita in constant USD: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD?end=2018&locations=GB-XC-FR-DE&start=2010&view=chartLennon said:
Interesting - is it a similar pattern if you look at GDP/Person? (ie how much, if any, of that GDP growth differential is due to population change vs genuine productivity improvements)Philip_Thompson said:
Thanks. Did this one with the UK, France, Germany and the Eurozone measuring GDP in Constant 2010 USD$ from 2010 to 2018: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD?end=2018&locations=GB-XC-FR-DE&start=2010&view=chartrkrkrk said:
World Bank allows you to make your own charts. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=GB-XC&view=chartPhilip_Thompson said:Economics question - when the 2019 GDP growth figures are released (should be later this month from memory) I'd be curious to compare how different countries performed over the 2010s as a whole. A lot of people have spoken about a "lost decade" and I'd be curious to see how the UK compares to eg France, Germany, the Eurozone and other G7 economies over the decade.
What's the simplest site or method to do that, that anyone can think of? Without a paid subscription to a site.
By my reckoning over the last decade the growth rates are:
UK 16.4%
France 10.67%
Germany 15.93%
Euroarea 10.84%
Interesting. Need the 2019 data to finish the decade off but I wonder how it will look in the 2020s.
UK 9.86%
France 7.45%
Germany 14.32%
Eurozone 8.93%
So interestingly despite all the talk about Germany accepting migrants earlier this decade, the UK's growth is a mix of per capita growth and population growth while Germany's is mostly per capita growth without population growht. France and the Euroarea still lagging us per capita but not as much as it appeared with population growth included.0 -
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.KD?end=2018&locations=GB-XC-FR-DE&start=2010&view=chartLennon said:
Interesting - is it a similar pattern if you look at GDP/Person? (ie how much, if any, of that GDP growth differential is due to population change vs genuine productivity improvements)Philip_Thompson said:
Thanks. Did this one with the UK, France, Germany and the Eurozone measuring GDP in Constant 2010 USD$ from 2010 to 2018: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD?end=2018&locations=GB-XC-FR-DE&start=2010&view=chartrkrkrk said:
World Bank allows you to make your own charts. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=GB-XC&view=chartPhilip_Thompson said:Economics question - when the 2019 GDP growth figures are released (should be later this month from memory) I'd be curious to compare how different countries performed over the 2010s as a whole. A lot of people have spoken about a "lost decade" and I'd be curious to see how the UK compares to eg France, Germany, the Eurozone and other G7 economies over the decade.
What's the simplest site or method to do that, that anyone can think of? Without a paid subscription to a site.
By my reckoning over the last decade the growth rates are:
UK 16.4%
France 10.67%
Germany 15.93%
Euroarea 10.84%
Interesting. Need the 2019 data to finish the decade off but I wonder how it will look in the 2020s.
(there's a box at the right lets you change options)
Gives:
UK 10%
France 7%
Germany 14%
from downloaded spreadsheet, assuming I'm doing it the same way - (2018-2010)/20100 -
Apparently Leakey likes chain-sawing to classical music.tlg86 said:0 -
Not sure that's the best timeframe of reference because of the impact of the global financial crisis and the differing starting points of the 3 economies.Philip_Thompson said:
Thanks. Did this one with the UK, France, Germany and the Eurozone measuring GDP in Constant 2010 USD$ from 2010 to 2018: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD?end=2018&locations=GB-XC-FR-DE&start=2010&view=chartrkrkrk said:
World Bank allows you to make your own charts. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=GB-XC&view=chartPhilip_Thompson said:Economics question - when the 2019 GDP growth figures are released (should be later this month from memory) I'd be curious to compare how different countries performed over the 2010s as a whole. A lot of people have spoken about a "lost decade" and I'd be curious to see how the UK compares to eg France, Germany, the Eurozone and other G7 economies over the decade.
What's the simplest site or method to do that, that anyone can think of? Without a paid subscription to a site.
By my reckoning over the last decade the growth rates are:
UK 16.4%
France 10.67%
Germany 15.93%
Euroarea 10.84%
Interesting. Need the 2019 data to finish the decade off but I wonder how it will look in the 2020s.
If you look at GDP/capita in 2007, you'll see all 3 countries were approximately the same. Now France and the UK are close, with Germany comfortably ahead.0 -
One reason we are not in the Euro is the British and major European economies had not converged. Ours was closer to America's. You can see on your graph that France and Germany are basically the same shape and we are not. It might be interesting to include the United States and perhaps even extend your graph back a decade to see if we are getting closer to Europe.Philip_Thompson said:
Thanks. Did this one with the UK, France, Germany and the Eurozone measuring GDP in Constant 2010 USD$ from 2010 to 2018: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD?end=2018&locations=GB-XC-FR-DE&start=2010&view=chartrkrkrk said:
World Bank allows you to make your own charts. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=GB-XC&view=chartPhilip_Thompson said:Economics question - when the 2019 GDP growth figures are released (should be later this month from memory) I'd be curious to compare how different countries performed over the 2010s as a whole. A lot of people have spoken about a "lost decade" and I'd be curious to see how the UK compares to eg France, Germany, the Eurozone and other G7 economies over the decade.
What's the simplest site or method to do that, that anyone can think of? Without a paid subscription to a site.
By my reckoning over the last decade the growth rates are:
UK 16.4%
France 10.67%
Germany 15.93%
Euroarea 10.84%
Interesting. Need the 2019 data to finish the decade off but I wonder how it will look in the 2020s.0 -
Biden led in a third of Iowa polls taken in January.
He's probably going to scrape 4th.0 -
Bullying at a very senior level is extremely difficult to deal with.DavidL said:
The new Speaker really needs to get a grip on this and a conclusion. It is pretty obvious Bercow was blocking any investigations/conclusions when he was in office but we need transparency . Lord help us if we start to feel sorry for Bercow as he is surrounded by unsubstantiated rumours and no way of clearing himself. There just aren't enough showers.
In one of the organisations I belong to, we all made a concerted effort to stop a very senior & influential person behaving like a bully to people under him.
He responded by reporting all of us to Human Resources for "bullying him".
By preventing him from throwing his weight around, we were being disrespectful and therefore "intimidating him".
A one-year long external review followed ... the external review concluded that the bully had been bullying and should face discipline.
The bully lawyered up, and his lawyers argued that the external review failed to treat him fairly ... a second external review is ongoing.
It is very easy to see how the Patterson incident happened. It is very, very difficult and time-consuming to deal with such people, if there is a culture of entitlement.
From what I have seen of Bercow, I find it plausible that he would behave badly to juniors. The claims need investigating, but I expect the trajectory to be similar to the case I outlined.
Bercow will claim that those investigating him are the bullies.0 -
Germany has a declining population and immigration has not been enough to offset it. Our productivity performance is poorer than this indicates because to achieve our increase we have significantly increased the proportion of our population economically active (immigration has also helped with this).Philip_Thompson said:
Good question. Same countries, same timescale, GDP per capita in constant USD: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD?end=2018&locations=GB-XC-FR-DE&start=2010&view=chartLennon said:
Interesting - is it a similar pattern if you look at GDP/Person? (ie how much, if any, of that GDP growth differential is due to population change vs genuine productivity improvements)Philip_Thompson said:
Thanks. Did this one with the UK, France, Germany and the Eurozone measuring GDP in Constant 2010 USD$ from 2010 to 2018: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD?end=2018&locations=GB-XC-FR-DE&start=2010&view=chartrkrkrk said:
World Bank allows you to make your own charts. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=GB-XC&view=chartPhilip_Thompson said:Economics question - when the 2019 GDP growth figures are released (should be later this month from memory) I'd be curious to compare how different countries performed over the 2010s as a whole. A lot of people have spoken about a "lost decade" and I'd be curious to see how the UK compares to eg France, Germany, the Eurozone and other G7 economies over the decade.
What's the simplest site or method to do that, that anyone can think of? Without a paid subscription to a site.
By my reckoning over the last decade the growth rates are:
UK 16.4%
France 10.67%
Germany 15.93%
Euroarea 10.84%
Interesting. Need the 2019 data to finish the decade off but I wonder how it will look in the 2020s.
UK 9.86%
France 7.45%
Germany 14.32%
Eurozone 8.93%
So interestingly despite all the talk about Germany accepting migrants earlier this decade, the UK's growth is a mix of per capita growth and population growth while Germany's is mostly per capita growth without population growht. France and the Euroarea still lagging us per capita but not as much as it appeared with population growth included.
I also believe that most of our out performance was in the first half of the decade and we under performed in the second half. Whether that was catch up or Brexit uncertainty can be argued about forever but clearly the latter had at least some part to play. I remain optimistic about the next decade and expect that our outperformance of the EZ will continue, albeit that is a disappointingly low bar.2 -
I chose 2010 just because it was start of the decade. But I'm not generally comfortable with 2007 as a frame of reference as it was peak bubble before the crash - unless we intend to be at peak bubble before a crash now its not a great frame of reference either.rkrkrk said:
Not sure that's the best timeframe of reference because of the impact of the global financial crisis and the differing starting points of the 3 economies.Philip_Thompson said:
Thanks. Did this one with the UK, France, Germany and the Eurozone measuring GDP in Constant 2010 USD$ from 2010 to 2018: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD?end=2018&locations=GB-XC-FR-DE&start=2010&view=chartrkrkrk said:
World Bank allows you to make your own charts. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=GB-XC&view=chartPhilip_Thompson said:Economics question - when the 2019 GDP growth figures are released (should be later this month from memory) I'd be curious to compare how different countries performed over the 2010s as a whole. A lot of people have spoken about a "lost decade" and I'd be curious to see how the UK compares to eg France, Germany, the Eurozone and other G7 economies over the decade.
What's the simplest site or method to do that, that anyone can think of? Without a paid subscription to a site.
By my reckoning over the last decade the growth rates are:
UK 16.4%
France 10.67%
Germany 15.93%
Euroarea 10.84%
Interesting. Need the 2019 data to finish the decade off but I wonder how it will look in the 2020s.
If you look at GDP/capita in 2007, you'll see all 3 countries were approximately the same. Now France and the UK are close, with Germany comfortably ahead.0 -
People are saying on the internet that Bercow couldn't have been a bully as he is short - much shorter than the men it is claimed he bullied. From my experience some of the worst bullies I have met have been short men with Napoleon complexes.YBarddCwsc said:
Bullying at a very senior level is extremely difficult to deal with.DavidL said:
The new Speaker really needs to get a grip on this and a conclusion. It is pretty obvious Bercow was blocking any investigations/conclusions when he was in office but we need transparency . Lord help us if we start to feel sorry for Bercow as he is surrounded by unsubstantiated rumours and no way of clearing himself. There just aren't enough showers.
In one of the organisations I belong to, we all made a concerted effort to stop a very senior & influential person behaving like a bully to people under him.
He responded by reporting all of us to Human Resources for "bullying him".
By preventing him from throwing his weight around him, we were being disrespectful and therefore "intimidating him".
A one-year long external review followed ... the external review concluded that the bully had been bullying and should face discipline.
The bully lawyered up, and his lawyers argued that the external review failed to treat him fairly ... a second external review is ongoing.
It is very easy to see how the Patterson incident happened. It is very, very difficult and time-consuming to deal with such people, if there is a culture of entitlement.
From what I have seen of Bercow, I find it plausible that he would behave badly to juniors. The claims need investigating, but I expect the trajectory to be similar to the case I outlined.
Bercow will claim that those investigating him are the bullies.0 -
He's finished. I expect NH will confirm it. Ironically, the impeachment process highlighting alleged corruption involving his son has probably done him more harm than it seems to have done Trump.Alistair said:Biden led in a third of Iowa polls taken in January.
He's probably going to scrape 4th.0 -
Yet again Abbott puts her foot in it, this time regarding Bercow. But please do not take the online musings of Abbott as likely to be representative of the views of most in the Labour Party and certainly not of the Labour leadership to come from April onwards.YBarddCwsc said:
Diane Abbot is mistaken if she thinks bullying is restricted to being "intimidated and coerced".MarqueeMark said:
Labour proposing Bercow as a bit of political shitz'n'gigglez does now look less than smart.tlg86 said:
Physical assault is just the most serious and extreme form of bullying.
Rather characteristically, Labour seems believe it is one rule for everyone else, and one rule for their friends.
(See also gender equality for top jobs).
For example, how many in the Labour Party was Abbott speaking for when she castigated the potential impact of Ed Miliband's proposed mansion tax just prior to the 2015 general election, on the grounds that it would transfer money from the pockets of Londoners fortunate enough to end up owning very high value properties to the benefit of the rest of the UK?0 -
I agree it is not easy but Bercow is now out of the loop and matters can and should be investigated objectively and quickly with full disclosure. The statement from the current Speaker (last week?) was encouraging but time is of the essence here.YBarddCwsc said:
Bullying at a very senior level is extremely difficult to deal with.DavidL said:
The new Speaker really needs to get a grip on this and a conclusion. It is pretty obvious Bercow was blocking any investigations/conclusions when he was in office but we need transparency . Lord help us if we start to feel sorry for Bercow as he is surrounded by unsubstantiated rumours and no way of clearing himself. There just aren't enough showers.
In one of the organisations I belong to, we all made a concerted effort to stop a very senior & influential person behaving like a bully to people under him.
He responded by reporting all of us to Human Resources for "bullying him".
By preventing him from throwing his weight around, we were being disrespectful and therefore "intimidating him".
A one-year long external review followed ... the external review concluded that the bully had been bullying and should face discipline.
The bully lawyered up, and his lawyers argued that the external review failed to treat him fairly ... a second external review is ongoing.
It is very easy to see how the Patterson incident happened. It is very, very difficult and time-consuming to deal with such people, if there is a culture of entitlement.
From what I have seen of Bercow, I find it plausible that he would behave badly to juniors. The claims need investigating, but I expect the trajectory to be similar to the case I outlined.
Bercow will claim that those investigating him are the bullies.0 -
It is almost as if Number 10 were being run by an over-promoted SpAd who'd caused similar disputes just as quickly at Education and even during the Brexit referendum. He is probably safe until people start referring to Boris as PMINO.Foxy said:
While conflicts between no. 10 and 11 are the bread and butter of British politics, isn't this a rather swift one to develop? Note also the releases on HS2 last week.rottenborough said:0 -
A significant proportion of managers use the techniques of bullying, which is one reason it’s so hard to address. And many bullies are quite popular, except with their victims - witness the current president.YBarddCwsc said:
Bullying at a very senior level is extremely difficult to deal with.DavidL said:
The new Speaker really needs to get a grip on this and a conclusion. It is pretty obvious Bercow was blocking any investigations/conclusions when he was in office but we need transparency . Lord help us if we start to feel sorry for Bercow as he is surrounded by unsubstantiated rumours and no way of clearing himself. There just aren't enough showers.
In one of the organisations I belong to, we all made a concerted effort to stop a very senior & influential person behaving like a bully to people under him.
He responded by reporting all of us to Human Resources for "bullying him".
By preventing him from throwing his weight around, we were being disrespectful and therefore "intimidating him".
A one-year long external review followed ... the external review concluded that the bully had been bullying and should face discipline.
The bully lawyered up, and his lawyers argued that the external review failed to treat him fairly ... a second external review is ongoing.
It is very easy to see how the Patterson incident happened. It is very, very difficult and time-consuming to deal with such people, if there is a culture of entitlement.
From what I have seen of Bercow, I find it plausible that he would behave badly to juniors. The claims need investigating, but I expect the trajectory to be similar to the case I outlined.
Bercow will claim that those investigating him are the bullies.
Actually getting rid of even the most egregious is a hard task (I’ve been there, and it is one achievement of which I am unabashedly proud).0 -
Lots of people on the internet have strong opinions unsupported by objective evidence.SandraMc said:
People are saying on the internet that Bercow couldn't have been a bully as he is short - much shorter than the men it is claimed he bullied. From my experience some of the worst bullies I have met have been short men with Napoleon complexes.YBarddCwsc said:
Bullying at a very senior level is extremely difficult to deal with.DavidL said:
The new Speaker really needs to get a grip on this and a conclusion. It is pretty obvious Bercow was blocking any investigations/conclusions when he was in office but we need transparency . Lord help us if we start to feel sorry for Bercow as he is surrounded by unsubstantiated rumours and no way of clearing himself. There just aren't enough showers.
In one of the organisations I belong to, we all made a concerted effort to stop a very senior & influential person behaving like a bully to people under him.
He responded by reporting all of us to Human Resources for "bullying him".
By preventing him from throwing his weight around him, we were being disrespectful and therefore "intimidating him".
A one-year long external review followed ... the external review concluded that the bully had been bullying and should face discipline.
The bully lawyered up, and his lawyers argued that the external review failed to treat him fairly ... a second external review is ongoing.
It is very easy to see how the Patterson incident happened. It is very, very difficult and time-consuming to deal with such people, if there is a culture of entitlement.
From what I have seen of Bercow, I find it plausible that he would behave badly to juniors. The claims need investigating, but I expect the trajectory to be similar to the case I outlined.
Bercow will claim that those investigating him are the bullies.0 -
Cummings rather brilliant lecture about how he won the Brexit referendum was very clear that an essential element was never letting any of the politicians make any of the decisions (and to stay as far away from Farage as physically possible). Works for a campaign, not so sure about government.DecrepiterJohnL said:
It is almost as if Number 10 were being run by an over-promoted SpAd who'd caused similar disputes just as quickly at Education and even during the Brexit referendum. He is probably safe until people start referring to Boris as PMINO.Foxy said:
While conflicts between no. 10 and 11 are the bread and butter of British politics, isn't this a rather swift one to develop? Note also the releases on HS2 last week.rottenborough said:0 -
If caucuses are held in casinos, Nevada is going to be a bit of a lottery.rottenborough said:
Thanks. I didn't know Nevada was a caucus.Nigelb said:
Nevada is, though. And they will not be using it either.Foxy said:
No, NH is a primary, not a caucus.Sandpit said:
Are they using the same technology in NH, as they did in Iowa?MikeSmithson said:
No. All Democrat primaries are proportionalGallowgate said:Is New Hampshire winner-takes-all regarding the pledged delegates?
1 -
As ever, one needs to look at the consumption element of the figures.Philip_Thompson said:
Thanks. Did this one with the UK, France, Germany and the Eurozone measuring GDP in Constant 2010 USD$ from 2010 to 2018: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD?end=2018&locations=GB-XC-FR-DE&start=2010&view=chartrkrkrk said:
World Bank allows you to make your own charts. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=GB-XC&view=chartPhilip_Thompson said:Economics question - when the 2019 GDP growth figures are released (should be later this month from memory) I'd be curious to compare how different countries performed over the 2010s as a whole. A lot of people have spoken about a "lost decade" and I'd be curious to see how the UK compares to eg France, Germany, the Eurozone and other G7 economies over the decade.
What's the simplest site or method to do that, that anyone can think of? Without a paid subscription to a site.
By my reckoning over the last decade the growth rates are:
UK 16.4%
France 10.67%
Germany 15.93%
Euroarea 10.84%
Interesting. Need the 2019 data to finish the decade off but I wonder how it will look in the 2020s.
Edit: I haven't!1 -
Always be suspicious of the use of 2010 as a reference in anything to do with public spending and services.....Philip_Thompson said:
I chose 2010 just because it was start of the decade. But I'm not generally comfortable with 2007 as a frame of reference as it was peak bubble before the crash - unless we intend to be at peak bubble before a crash now its not a great frame of reference either.rkrkrk said:
Not sure that's the best timeframe of reference because of the impact of the global financial crisis and the differing starting points of the 3 economies.Philip_Thompson said:
Thanks. Did this one with the UK, France, Germany and the Eurozone measuring GDP in Constant 2010 USD$ from 2010 to 2018: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD?end=2018&locations=GB-XC-FR-DE&start=2010&view=chartrkrkrk said:
World Bank allows you to make your own charts. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=GB-XC&view=chartPhilip_Thompson said:Economics question - when the 2019 GDP growth figures are released (should be later this month from memory) I'd be curious to compare how different countries performed over the 2010s as a whole. A lot of people have spoken about a "lost decade" and I'd be curious to see how the UK compares to eg France, Germany, the Eurozone and other G7 economies over the decade.
What's the simplest site or method to do that, that anyone can think of? Without a paid subscription to a site.
By my reckoning over the last decade the growth rates are:
UK 16.4%
France 10.67%
Germany 15.93%
Euroarea 10.84%
Interesting. Need the 2019 data to finish the decade off but I wonder how it will look in the 2020s.
If you look at GDP/capita in 2007, you'll see all 3 countries were approximately the same. Now France and the UK are close, with Germany comfortably ahead.1 -
iowa polls waste of time in imho.Alistair said:Biden led in a third of Iowa polls taken in January.
He's probably going to scrape 4th.0 -
Interesting question. Here's a GDP per capita chart of the same nations and the USA for two decades from 1999 to 2018 (launch of the Euro): https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD?end=2018&locations=GB-XC-FR-DE-US&start=1999&view=chartDecrepiterJohnL said:
One reason we are not in the Euro is the British and major European economies had not converged. Ours was closer to America's. You can see on your graph that France and Germany are basically the same shape and we are not. It might be interesting to include the United States and perhaps even extend your graph back a decade to see if we are getting closer to Europe.Philip_Thompson said:
Thanks. Did this one with the UK, France, Germany and the Eurozone measuring GDP in Constant 2010 USD$ from 2010 to 2018: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD?end=2018&locations=GB-XC-FR-DE&start=2010&view=chartrkrkrk said:
World Bank allows you to make your own charts. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=GB-XC&view=chartPhilip_Thompson said:Economics question - when the 2019 GDP growth figures are released (should be later this month from memory) I'd be curious to compare how different countries performed over the 2010s as a whole. A lot of people have spoken about a "lost decade" and I'd be curious to see how the UK compares to eg France, Germany, the Eurozone and other G7 economies over the decade.
What's the simplest site or method to do that, that anyone can think of? Without a paid subscription to a site.
By my reckoning over the last decade the growth rates are:
UK 16.4%
France 10.67%
Germany 15.93%
Euroarea 10.84%
Interesting. Need the 2019 data to finish the decade off but I wonder how it will look in the 2020s.
Interestingly the UK started off below the Euro and finished above it, hard to see from that data that the Euro has been a success. Hard to obviously compare nation to nation as the scales are all off, USA consistently much higher chart - I wonder if there's a way to index a date to 100 for all nations chosen?0 -
On topic
So 5 more years of being lectured on diversity and equality while they cant actually elect a woman even when it's 4 to 1
1 -
[Citation needed]matt said:
Lots of people on the internet have strong opinions unsupported by objective evidence.SandraMc said:
People are saying on the internet that Bercow couldn't have been a bully as he is short - much shorter than the men it is claimed he bullied. From my experience some of the worst bullies I have met have been short men with Napoleon complexes.YBarddCwsc said:
Bullying at a very senior level is extremely difficult to deal with.DavidL said:
The new Speaker really needs to get a grip on this and a conclusion. It is pretty obvious Bercow was blocking any investigations/conclusions when he was in office but we need transparency . Lord help us if we start to feel sorry for Bercow as he is surrounded by unsubstantiated rumours and no way of clearing himself. There just aren't enough showers.
In one of the organisations I belong to, we all made a concerted effort to stop a very senior & influential person behaving like a bully to people under him.
He responded by reporting all of us to Human Resources for "bullying him".
By preventing him from throwing his weight around him, we were being disrespectful and therefore "intimidating him".
A one-year long external review followed ... the external review concluded that the bully had been bullying and should face discipline.
The bully lawyered up, and his lawyers argued that the external review failed to treat him fairly ... a second external review is ongoing.
It is very easy to see how the Patterson incident happened. It is very, very difficult and time-consuming to deal with such people, if there is a culture of entitlement.
From what I have seen of Bercow, I find it plausible that he would behave badly to juniors. The claims need investigating, but I expect the trajectory to be similar to the case I outlined.
Bercow will claim that those investigating him are the bullies.0 -
I think it actually kept him in the race longer. Like @rcs1000 I thought he wouldn't make Iowa but with Trump screaming corruption in his face it would have looked bad to stop campaigning.DavidL said:
He's finished. I expect NH will confirm it. Ironically, the impeachment process highlighting alleged corruption involving his son has probably done him more harm than it seems to have done Trump.Alistair said:Biden led in a third of Iowa polls taken in January.
He's probably going to scrape 4th.0 -
Is there a book on the Cumming's departure date?
https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/12250033818964664330 -
The line between man or woman management and bullying is very difficult to draw in practice. An employee is not delivering. You set them targets and make clear that failure to meet those targets will have financial or employment consequences. Bullying or management?Nigelb said:
A significant proportion of managers use the techniques of bullying, which is one reason it’s so hard to address. And many bullies are quite popular, except with their victims - witness the current president.YBarddCwsc said:
.DavidL said:
Actually getting rid of even the most egregious is a hard task (I’ve been there, and it is one achievement of which I am unabashedly proud).
In my experience it could be either. If the targets are unfair or unachieveable its bullying because it is causing unnecessary stress and anxiety in the employee. If they are the standard the firm requires of others in similar roles then it is management.
Before I came to the bar I was the partner in charge of a firm's court department. I was managing 10-15 staff in a high stress situation. Looking back at it now I realise my own stress caused me to be too impatient and occasionally unreasonable. Would any of my staff have accused me of being a bully? Maybe. It's not easy.0 -
He will see falling out with the media as a net positive.rottenborough said:Is there a book on the Cumming's departure date?
https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/12250033818964664330 -
Nah. He was always going to see it through until SC at least surely?Alistair said:
I think it actually kept him in the race longer. Like @rcs1000 I thought he wouldn't make Iowa but with Trump screaming corruption in his face it would have looked bad to stop campaigning.DavidL said:
He's finished. I expect NH will confirm it. Ironically, the impeachment process highlighting alleged corruption involving his son has probably done him more harm than it seems to have done Trump.Alistair said:Biden led in a third of Iowa polls taken in January.
He's probably going to scrape 4th.0 -
Trying to pare back spending plans intended to deliver tangible benefits to the electorate before 2024 in order to set aside funds for a railway eventually costing £100bn+ in initial capital alone that will only become part operational more than a decade hence.rottenborough said:
Yes, I can see why Cummings is tearing his hair out, or would be if he had any.0 -
He might, but politicians wont. Falling out with Daily Mail is a very bad idea.Sandpit said:
He will see falling out with the media as a net positive.rottenborough said:Is there a book on the Cumming's departure date?
https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/12250033818964664330 -
Cummings will not stand for it. He will be firing the Daily Mail shortly and Boris too if he does not behave.rottenborough said:Is there a book on the Cumming's departure date?
twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1225003381896466433
I wonder when the Ministry of Truth will be established by Cummings to absorb the govt Press Office?
0 -
I think that's a misdescription. HS2 and other infrastructure is going to get stuck on the credit card. What is more difficult is current spending. If you want record increases in NHS spending and 20k more cops other current spending has to be squeezed to meet those priorities. That is where the battle is.Wulfrun_Phil said:
Trying to pare back spending plans intended to deliver tangible benefits to the electorate before 2024 in order to set aside funds for a railway eventually costing £100bn+ in initial capital alone that will only become part operational more than a decade hence.rottenborough said:
Yes, I can see why Cummings is tearing his hair out, or would be if he had any.1 -
Interesting. Most of the old-school right-ring journalists one reads clearly loathe Boris, probably out of a combination of envy and moral disgust. I bet when and if the opportunity arises, they won't hesitate to bring him down.rottenborough said:Is there a book on the Cumming's departure date?
https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/12250033818964664330 -
Well indeed I 100% agree. Just as 2007 was peak bubble, 2010 was peak deficit. Its not a baseline for spending.NorthernPowerhouse said:
Always be suspicious of the use of 2010 as a reference in anything to do with public spending and services.....Philip_Thompson said:
I chose 2010 just because it was start of the decade. But I'm not generally comfortable with 2007 as a frame of reference as it was peak bubble before the crash - unless we intend to be at peak bubble before a crash now its not a great frame of reference either.rkrkrk said:
Not sure that's the best timeframe of reference because of the impact of the global financial crisis and the differing starting points of the 3 economies.Philip_Thompson said:
Thanks. Did this one with the UK, France, Germany and the Eurozone measuring GDP in Constant 2010 USD$ from 2010 to 2018: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD?end=2018&locations=GB-XC-FR-DE&start=2010&view=chartrkrkrk said:
World Bank allows you to make your own charts. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=GB-XC&view=chartPhilip_Thompson said:Economics question - when the 2019 GDP growth figures are released (should be later this month from memory) I'd be curious to compare how different countries performed over the 2010s as a whole. A lot of people have spoken about a "lost decade" and I'd be curious to see how the UK compares to eg France, Germany, the Eurozone and other G7 economies over the decade.
What's the simplest site or method to do that, that anyone can think of? Without a paid subscription to a site.
By my reckoning over the last decade the growth rates are:
UK 16.4%
France 10.67%
Germany 15.93%
Euroarea 10.84%
Interesting. Need the 2019 data to finish the decade off but I wonder how it will look in the 2020s.
If you look at GDP/capita in 2007, you'll see all 3 countries were approximately the same. Now France and the UK are close, with Germany comfortably ahead.1 -
Indeed even the Telegraph is cottoning on:Stark_Dawning said:
Interesting. Most of the old-school right-ring journalists one reads clearly loathe Boris, probably out of a combination of envy and moral disgust. I bet when and if the opportunity arises, they won't hesitate to bring him down.rottenborough said:Is there a book on the Cumming's departure date?
https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1225003381896466433
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/02/04/corbyn-government-had-behaved-like-wouldnt-tory-mps-uproar/?li_source=LI&li_medium=li-recommendation-widget0 -
The aversion to scrutiny is much more a Boris Johnson thing than a Dominic Cummings thing, judging by past behaviour.0
-
I'm now calling the Iowa State Delegates for Buttigieg.
Sanders has only cut Buttigieg's Delegate lead by 0.2% on the latest update.
There is still outstanding votes mostly from the satellite caucuses, it might cut it to 1% but not enough for Sanders to overtake Buttigieg on State Delegates.
Biden might drop behind Klobuchar on Second Votes though, the Satellite caucuses were not good for him while Klobuchar did really well in them.1 -
Not an especial Morgan fan but she's right.0
-
Is Biden Goosed?0
-
The differences are simple to explain.Philip_Thompson said:
Good question. Same countries, same timescale, GDP per capita in constant USD: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD?end=2018&locations=GB-XC-FR-DE&start=2010&view=chartLennon said:
Interesting - is it a similar pattern if you look at GDP/Person? (ie how much, if any, of that GDP growth differential is due to population change vs genuine productivity improvements)Philip_Thompson said:
Thanks. Did this one with the UK, France, Germany and the Eurozone measuring GDP in Constant 2010 USD$ from 2010 to 2018: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD?end=2018&locations=GB-XC-FR-DE&start=2010&view=chartrkrkrk said:
World Bank allows you to make your own charts. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=GB-XC&view=chartPhilip_Thompson said:Economics question - when the 2019 GDP growth figures are released (should be later this month from memory) I'd be curious to compare how different countries performed over the 2010s as a whole. A lot of people have spoken about a "lost decade" and I'd be curious to see how the UK compares to eg France, Germany, the Eurozone and other G7 economies over the decade.
What's the simplest site or method to do that, that anyone can think of? Without a paid subscription to a site.
By my reckoning over the last decade the growth rates are:
UK 16.4%
France 10.67%
Germany 15.93%
Euroarea 10.84%
Interesting. Need the 2019 data to finish the decade off but I wonder how it will look in the 2020s.
UK 9.86%
France 7.45%
Germany 14.32%
Eurozone 8.93%
So interestingly despite all the talk about Germany accepting migrants earlier this decade, the UK's growth is a mix of per capita growth and population growth while Germany's is mostly per capita growth without population growht. France and the Euroarea still lagging us per capita but not as much as it appeared with population growth included.
Germany's industries grew by poaching market share from the rest of Europe.
Materially the only impact on non-euro membership for the UK is that it avoids the fiscal crisis of most euro members.0 -
Possible HS2 phase 3 incoming....Foxy said:
While conflicts between no. 10 and 11 are the bread and butter of British politics, isn't this a rather swift one to develop? Note also the releases on HS2 last week.rottenborough said:0 -
I suspect the bit into Euston to be kicked into the long, long grass.NorthernPowerhouse said:
Possible HS2 phase 3 incoming....Foxy said:
While conflicts between no. 10 and 11 are the bread and butter of British politics, isn't this a rather swift one to develop? Note also the releases on HS2 last week.rottenborough said:
Also I'm not sure how you build HS2 phase 2 and Northern PowerRail at the same time so it's possible the latter will be prioritised.0 -
Well, I'm not counting my winnings until the official result comes in next Xmas.speedy2 said:I'm now calling the Iowa State Delegates for Buttigieg.
Sanders has only cut Buttigieg's Delegate lead by 0.2% on the latest update.
There is still outstanding votes mostly from the satellite caucuses, it might cut it to 1% but not enough for Sanders to overtake Buttigieg on State Delegates.
Biden might drop behind Klobuchar on Second Votes though, the Satellite caucuses were not good for him while Klobuchar did really well in them.0 -
I'd dispute the contention in the header that Thornberry's rate of nomination has been accelerating, she has been fairly steady at a little under 5% throughout.
At 49 nominations she had 3
At 98 she had 4
At 264 she has 12
MoE variations these.
Now, I do happen to think that at least a few of the last CLPs to nominate will look at Thornberry and see a substantial enough politician to merit a place on the ballot. My guess is that Allin-Khan will get the same treatment too. Both, I'd hazard, will be nominated, but it will not make a difference to the end result.
But I don't think you can convincingly say that it is happening at this stage.0 -
In a normal campaign yes, due to lack of money and good prospects in N.Hampshire.TheGreenMachine said:Is Biden Goosed?
But because Biden is very stubborn and he still has the promise of S.Carolina and a Contested Convention, he won't drop out.
The likeliest outcome right now is a messy contested convention where no one has a majority, don't forget it's PR for the Democrats.0 -
I note that the MoD have just delayed the MQ-9 drone project which coincidentally is goign to make it cost £187m more. They are definitely fattening that one up for the kill.DavidL said:
I think that's a misdescription. HS2 and other infrastructure is going to get stuck on the credit card. What is more difficult is current spending. If you want record increases in NHS spending and 20k more cops other current spending has to be squeezed to meet those priorities. That is where the battle is.Wulfrun_Phil said:
Trying to pare back spending plans intended to deliver tangible benefits to the electorate before 2024 in order to set aside funds for a railway eventually costing £100bn+ in initial capital alone that will only become part operational more than a decade hence.rottenborough said:
Yes, I can see why Cummings is tearing his hair out, or would be if he had any.0 -
I agree. I don't think she is going to make it.Pro_Rata said:I'd dispute the contention in the header that Thornberry's rate of nomination has been accelerating, she has been fairly steady at a little under 5% throughout.
At 49 nominations she had 3
At 98 she had 4
At 264 she has 12
MoE variations these.
Now, I do happen to think that at least a few of the last CLPs to nominate will look at Thornberry and see a substantial enough politician to merit a place on the ballot. My guess is that Allin-Khan will get the same treatment too. Both, I'd hazard, will be nominated, but it will not make a difference to the end result.
But I don't think you can convincingly say that it is happening at this stage.0 -
Sky poll.
Boris at 52% approval, Farage 30% Corbyn 17%1 -
Am I missing something, or is that the most pointless political poll in the history of everything everywhere?Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky poll.
Boris at 52% approval, Farage 30% Corbyn 17%0 -
I somehow didn't realise that Sally Bercow had an affair with John's equally short, balder, and less handsome cousin Alan.
That's got to be a real kick in the nuts..0 -
What is her USP that the others don't offer?DavidL said:
I agree. I don't think she is going to make it.Pro_Rata said:I'd dispute the contention in the header that Thornberry's rate of nomination has been accelerating, she has been fairly steady at a little under 5% throughout.
At 49 nominations she had 3
At 98 she had 4
At 264 she has 12
MoE variations these.
Now, I do happen to think that at least a few of the last CLPs to nominate will look at Thornberry and see a substantial enough politician to merit a place on the ballot. My guess is that Allin-Khan will get the same treatment too. Both, I'd hazard, will be nominated, but it will not make a difference to the end result.
But I don't think you can convincingly say that it is happening at this stage.0 -
Part of their continuing polling, I think with yougovStark_Dawning said:
Am I missing something, or is that the most pointless political poll in the history of everything everywhere?Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky poll.
Boris at 52% approval, Farage 30% Corbyn 17%0 -
"poach"? What they did was use a very strong savings rate and very conservative fiscal policies to (a) boost investments and (b) suppress domestic demand, taking advantage of the more fiscally expansive policies in both the EZ and the UK to grow whilst somewhat hypocritically criticising the former for such policies.speedy2 said:
The differences are simple to explain.Philip_Thompson said:
Good question. Same countries, same timescale, GDP per capita in constant USD: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD?end=2018&locations=GB-XC-FR-DE&start=2010&view=chartLennon said:
Interesting - is it a similar pattern if you look at GDP/Person? (ie how much, if any, of that GDP growth differential is due to population change vs genuine productivity improvements)Philip_Thompson said:
Thanks. Did this one with the UK, France, Germany and the Eurozone measuring GDP in Constant 2010 USD$ from 2010 to 2018: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD?end=2018&locations=GB-XC-FR-DE&start=2010&view=chartrkrkrk said:
World Bank allows you to make your own charts. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=GB-XC&view=chartPhilip_Thompson said:Economics question - when the 2019 GDP growth figures are released (should be later this month from memory) I'd be curious to compare how different countries performed over the 2010s as a whole. A lot of people have spoken about a "lost decade" and I'd be curious to see how the UK compares to eg France, Germany, the Eurozone and other G7 economies over the decade.
What's the simplest site or method to do that, that anyone can think of? Without a paid subscription to a site.
By my reckoning over the last decade the growth rates are:
UK 16.4%
France 10.67%
Germany 15.93%
Euroarea 10.84%
Interesting. Need the 2019 data to finish the decade off but I wonder how it will look in the 2020s.
UK 9.86%
France 7.45%
Germany 14.32%
Eurozone 8.93%
So interestingly despite all the talk about Germany accepting migrants earlier this decade, the UK's growth is a mix of per capita growth and population growth while Germany's is mostly per capita growth without population growht. France and the Euroarea still lagging us per capita but not as much as it appeared with population growth included.
Germany's industries grew by poaching market share from the rest of Europe.
Materially the only impact on non-euro membership for the UK is that it avoids the fiscal crisis of most euro members.
I think it was and is pretty selfish myself. Germany has the capacity to significantly increase domestic demand boosting not only their own growth but EZ growth generally. But they don't.0 -
I take it he packs a big punch.TrèsDifficile said:I somehow didn't realise that Sally Bercow had an affair with John's equally short, balder, and less handsome cousin Alan.
That's got to be a real kick in the nuts..0 -
Nope.. HS2 is going north of crew... you heard it here first.eek said:
I suspect the bit into Euston to be kicked into the long, long grass.NorthernPowerhouse said:
Possible HS2 phase 3 incoming....Foxy said:
While conflicts between no. 10 and 11 are the bread and butter of British politics, isn't this a rather swift one to develop? Note also the releases on HS2 last week.rottenborough said:
Also I'm not sure how you build HS2 phase 2 and Northern PowerRail at the same time so it's possible the latter will be prioritised.0 -
Crewe surelyNorthernPowerhouse said:
Nope.. HS2 is going north of crew... you heard it here first.eek said:
I suspect the bit into Euston to be kicked into the long, long grass.NorthernPowerhouse said:
Possible HS2 phase 3 incoming....Foxy said:
While conflicts between no. 10 and 11 are the bread and butter of British politics, isn't this a rather swift one to develop? Note also the releases on HS2 last week.rottenborough said:
Also I'm not sure how you build HS2 phase 2 and Northern PowerRail at the same time so it's possible the latter will be prioritised.1 -
I think that she has slightly more traction with the real world than most of them. Which doesn't help her chances at all, of course.Philip_Thompson said:
What is her USP that the others don't offer?DavidL said:
I agree. I don't think she is going to make it.Pro_Rata said:I'd dispute the contention in the header that Thornberry's rate of nomination has been accelerating, she has been fairly steady at a little under 5% throughout.
At 49 nominations she had 3
At 98 she had 4
At 264 she has 12
MoE variations these.
Now, I do happen to think that at least a few of the last CLPs to nominate will look at Thornberry and see a substantial enough politician to merit a place on the ballot. My guess is that Allin-Khan will get the same treatment too. Both, I'd hazard, will be nominated, but it will not make a difference to the end result.
But I don't think you can convincingly say that it is happening at this stage.0 -
Proven performer at PMQs is the main USP. One can imagine how the others will perform, but we know Thornberry can do it.DavidL said:
I think that she has slightly more traction with the real world than most of them. Which doesn't help her chances at all, of course.Philip_Thompson said:
What is her USP that the others don't offer?DavidL said:
I agree. I don't think she is going to make it.Pro_Rata said:I'd dispute the contention in the header that Thornberry's rate of nomination has been accelerating, she has been fairly steady at a little under 5% throughout.
At 49 nominations she had 3
At 98 she had 4
At 264 she has 12
MoE variations these.
Now, I do happen to think that at least a few of the last CLPs to nominate will look at Thornberry and see a substantial enough politician to merit a place on the ballot. My guess is that Allin-Khan will get the same treatment too. Both, I'd hazard, will be nominated, but it will not make a difference to the end result.
But I don't think you can convincingly say that it is happening at this stage.0 -
On Iowa, everyone was aware that there is no actual "ballot" for the caucuses so people could have caucused for who they like, including Bloomberg ?0
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Funny, I thought the opposite. This is the same woman who looks down on voters she's meant to be campaigning for and mocks them for flying flags isn't it? Unless your real world is a London socialist bubble where people are ashamed of their country and compatriots I'm not sure how much traction she has.DavidL said:
I think that she has slightly more traction with the real world than most of them. Which doesn't help her chances at all, of course.Philip_Thompson said:
What is her USP that the others don't offer?DavidL said:
I agree. I don't think she is going to make it.Pro_Rata said:I'd dispute the contention in the header that Thornberry's rate of nomination has been accelerating, she has been fairly steady at a little under 5% throughout.
At 49 nominations she had 3
At 98 she had 4
At 264 she has 12
MoE variations these.
Now, I do happen to think that at least a few of the last CLPs to nominate will look at Thornberry and see a substantial enough politician to merit a place on the ballot. My guess is that Allin-Khan will get the same treatment too. Both, I'd hazard, will be nominated, but it will not make a difference to the end result.
But I don't think you can convincingly say that it is happening at this stage.0 -
I must say that Corbyn's wittering at PMQs is both pointless and a clear missed opportunity. Labour should give each of the candidates who make the nomination a go. They could hardly be worse and it will give people a better idea of whether they are up to the task.Pro_Rata said:
Proven performer at PMQs is the main USP. One can imagine how the others will perform, but we know Thornberry can do it.DavidL said:
I think that she has slightly more traction with the real world than most of them. Which doesn't help her chances at all, of course.Philip_Thompson said:
What is her USP that the others don't offer?DavidL said:
I agree. I don't think she is going to make it.Pro_Rata said:I'd dispute the contention in the header that Thornberry's rate of nomination has been accelerating, she has been fairly steady at a little under 5% throughout.
At 49 nominations she had 3
At 98 she had 4
At 264 she has 12
MoE variations these.
Now, I do happen to think that at least a few of the last CLPs to nominate will look at Thornberry and see a substantial enough politician to merit a place on the ballot. My guess is that Allin-Khan will get the same treatment too. Both, I'd hazard, will be nominated, but it will not make a difference to the end result.
But I don't think you can convincingly say that it is happening at this stage.0 -
Another debt for our children and grandchildren to bear?DavidL said:
I think that's a misdescription. HS2 and other infrastructure is going to get stuck on the credit card. What is more difficult is current spending. If you want record increases in NHS spending and 20k more cops other current spending has to be squeezed to meet those priorities. That is where the battle is.Wulfrun_Phil said:
Trying to pare back spending plans intended to deliver tangible benefits to the electorate before 2024 in order to set aside funds for a railway eventually costing £100bn+ in initial capital alone that will only become part operational more than a decade hence.rottenborough said:twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1224970629906079744
Yes, I can see why Cummings is tearing his hair out, or would be if he had any.0 -
I see Japanese officials are now worrying about the Olympics in the summer after 20 passengers on a cruise ship have been diagnosed with Coronavirus.
It is starting to feel like the efforts to contain it will fail, which could have huge ramifications for global healthcare systems and the global economy.1 -
It's only a misdesciption because of the way you have chosen to interpret my comment. I was not suggesting that £100+bn is there to spend over the next five years in the event of cancellation of HS2. Nonetheless, you need to bear in mind the fact that the ability of governments to engage in capital spending is not infinite. Markets have to be prepared to finance the government's need to borrow and that is impacted by the fact that the monthly cost of proceeding with HS2 is already about £250m and rising, which will limit the scope for other capital spending or otherwise push up servicing costs of new and existing debt. Also, Johnson's wish list is not just confined to current spending - what about the cost of building or improving NHS hospitals. A Chancellor who is pushing HS2 whilst simultaneously seeking to pare back both current and capital spending elsewhere seems to me to have got his priorities wrong.DavidL said:
I think that's a misdescription. HS2 and other infrastructure is going to get stuck on the credit card. What is more difficult is current spending. If you want record increases in NHS spending and 20k more cops other current spending has to be squeezed to meet those priorities. That is where the battle is.Wulfrun_Phil said:
Trying to pare back spending plans intended to deliver tangible benefits to the electorate before 2024 in order to set aside funds for a railway eventually costing £100bn+ in initial capital alone that will only become part operational more than a decade hence.rottenborough said:
Yes, I can see why Cummings is tearing his hair out, or would be if he had any.0 -
Yep but hopefully they will have a train set to play with.Beibheirli_C said:
Another debt for our children and grandchildren to bear?DavidL said:
I think that's a misdescription. HS2 and other infrastructure is going to get stuck on the credit card. What is more difficult is current spending. If you want record increases in NHS spending and 20k more cops other current spending has to be squeezed to meet those priorities. That is where the battle is.Wulfrun_Phil said:
Trying to pare back spending plans intended to deliver tangible benefits to the electorate before 2024 in order to set aside funds for a railway eventually costing £100bn+ in initial capital alone that will only become part operational more than a decade hence.rottenborough said:twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1224970629906079744
Yes, I can see why Cummings is tearing his hair out, or would be if he had any.0 -
Do they?DavidL said:"poach"? What they did was use a very strong savings rate and very conservative fiscal policies to (a) boost investments and (b) suppress domestic demand, taking advantage of the more fiscally expansive policies in both the EZ and the UK to grow whilst somewhat hypocritically criticising the former for such policies.
I think it was and is pretty selfish myself. Germany has the capacity to significantly increase domestic demand boosting not only their own growth but EZ growth generally. But they don't.
To be fair to German budgetary hawks, German debt to GDP is still above 60% and higher than it was at the start of the century when the Euro launched. If they want to get down to say 30-40% of GDP like we had before Brown tanked our economy they've still got a long road ahead of them.0
