politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB leadership betting: Nandy edges up closer to RLB but Starm
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB leadership betting: Nandy edges up closer to RLB but Starmer remains the firm favourite
We have not looked at the LAB leadership betting since Jess Phillips dropped out and as can be seen from the latest chart the man movement has been for Lisa Nandy . This follows her latest union nomination moving her to within a whisper of getting onto the members ballot that goes out in March.
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It's certainly looking like Starmer is a shoo in, unless the membership really has changed in a way not picked up yet.0
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Say what you like about Andy Coulson (and Tim did), he may have been a prick but he wasn't a really, really badly dressed prick.
https://twitter.com/Luiseach/status/1219938479645306881?s=201 -
The thing about Lisa Nandy is that she seems to be doing well in media interviews and at events like the GMB husting. That suggests to me that she is going to gain support over the campaign, which as Mike says is long. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see her overtaking RLB quite soon in polling and in the betting. Enough to win the gig? Well, probably not, given Starmer's initial big lead, but it's worth remembering that in two of the three recent Labour leadership contests the early favourites didn't make it.0
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Nandy might run Starmer closer than a lot of people think, I think, although I doubt she will be leader before Starmer. Among my amateur focus group of my sons she seems to have a rare mix of quirkiness, intelligence and sex appeal.Slackbladder said:It's certainly looking like Starmer is a shoo in, unless the membership really has changed in a way not picked up yet.
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As I said, Sanders will win Iowa. Hillary's unendorsement has helped him.
https://mobile.twitter.com/cnnbrk/status/12199504367378309121 -
Nandy must pip RLB for 2nd with Starmer in 1st but not too close to 50% - then pick up most of RLB's prefs to in turn pip Starmer at the end. This is a narrow path but it's IMO possible.Richard_Nabavi said:The thing about Lisa Nandy is that she seems to be doing well in media interviews and at events like the GMB husting. That suggests to me that she is going to gain support over the campaign, which as Mike says is long. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see her overtaking RLB quite soon in polling and in the betting. Enough to win the gig? Well, probably not, given Starmer's initial big lead, but it's worth remembering that in two of the three recent Labour leadership contests the early favourites didn't make it.
Per the market right now, I think Starmer should be shorter than current 1.45, Nandy should be longer than her 7, and RLB should be MUCH longer than the 6.2.0 -
When will Lisa Nandy become leader of the Labour Party?
Before 2021 5/1
2021 or after 1/60 -
She's probably a good trading bet.WhisperingOracle said:
Nandy might run Starmer closer than a lot of people think, I think, although I doubt she will be leader before Starmer. Among my amateur focus group of my sons she seems to have a rare mix of quirkiness, intelligence and sex appeal.Slackbladder said:It's certainly looking like Starmer is a shoo in, unless the membership really has changed in a way not picked up yet.
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Crazy. Dems are bonkers. Four more years of Trump.nunu2 said:As I said, Sanders will win Iowa. Hillary's unendorsement has helped him.
https://mobile.twitter.com/cnnbrk/status/12199504367378309121 -
That is one super-talented weirdo right there.Theuniondivvie said:Say what you like about Andy Coulson (and Tim did), he may have been a prick but he wasn't a really, really badly dressed prick.
https://twitter.com/Luiseach/status/1219938479645306881?s=200 -
Labour should be very grateful that hardly anyone will be aware of Corbyn doing PMQs.1
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Having been boosted by the endorsement of Jess Phillips who says she will vote Nandy first and Starmer as her second preference, Lisa Nandy promises an 'empowering' welfare system with reversals to welfare cuts paid for by ditching planned National Insurance cuts and a less complicated welfare system.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-512045540 -
Unlike the other two contenders, she is evidently thinking. Her thoughts look like the wrong thoughts to me, but she is at least having them.
Unlike them, she also has huge institutional disadvantages. I still expect she’ll come third.1 -
Sanders takes the lead 27% to 24% for Biden, with Warren on 14% and Buttigieg on 11% and Bloomberg on 5% and Klobuchar on 4% in that new CNN national Democratic nomination poll of registered Democratsnunu2 said:As I said, Sanders will win Iowa. Hillary's unendorsement has helped him.
https://mobile.twitter.com/cnnbrk/status/12199504367378309120 -
It is just embarrassing. April 4th cannot come soon enough for labour and the end of Corbyntlg86 said:Labour should be very grateful that hardly anyone will be aware of Corbyn doing PMQs.
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Emily into 90s. Yeah I know but that's a big contraction from yesterday.0
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I think the important bit here is where do second preferences go.Richard_Nabavi said:The thing about Lisa Nandy is that she seems to be doing well in media interviews and at events like the GMB husting. That suggests to me that she is going to gain support over the campaign, which as Mike says is long. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see her overtaking RLB quite soon in polling and in the betting. Enough to win the gig? Well, probably not, given Starmer's initial big lead, but it's worth remembering that in two of the three recent Labour leadership contests the early favourites didn't make it.
Bailey's second preferences are likely to head to Nandy,
Nandy's will probably split 50/50 between Starmer and Bailey.
Starmer's will likely head to Nandy,
I suspect if Nandy gets into second place she may just win.0 -
Its the same old stuff. The Greggs stuff is incredible. Greggs give a payout bonus and it puts some staff who cannily use the taper and allowances to hit the sweetspot into the zone where they lose UC. And this is a problem.. That's how it is supposed to work. The old system was utterly brutal (well maybe not tax credits as by the end HMRC just gave up trying to claw back over payments), you came off the benefit entirely and you had to reapply to get back on it.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is just embarrassing. April 4th cannot come soon enough for labour and the end of Corbyntlg86 said:Labour should be very grateful that hardly anyone will be aware of Corbyn doing PMQs.
UC has its flaws, but not here, its operating as it should.1 -
100K new members apparently. Who are they? Anti-Jezza returning now he's going or left wingers who lapsed?Slackbladder said:It's certainly looking like Starmer is a shoo in, unless the membership really has changed in a way not picked up yet.
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UC is the less complicated welfare system....HYUFD said:Having been boosted by the endorsement of Jess Phillips who says she will vote Nandy first and Starmer as her second preference, Lisa Nandy promises an 'empowering' welfare system with reversals to welfare cuts paid for by ditching planned National Insurance cuts and a less complicated welfare system.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-512045541 -
Based on those I know (admittedly not a representative sample!), they are all Anti-Jezzas returning, or joining for the first time, in the hope of using their leadership contest votes to make Labour electable again.rottenborough said:
100K new members apparently. Who are they? Anti-Jezza returning now he's going or left wingers who lapsed?Slackbladder said:It's certainly looking like Starmer is a shoo in, unless the membership really has changed in a way not picked up yet.
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Dark horse, dark horse.eek said:
I think the important bit here is where do second preferences go.Richard_Nabavi said:The thing about Lisa Nandy is that she seems to be doing well in media interviews and at events like the GMB husting. That suggests to me that she is going to gain support over the campaign, which as Mike says is long. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see her overtaking RLB quite soon in polling and in the betting. Enough to win the gig? Well, probably not, given Starmer's initial big lead, but it's worth remembering that in two of the three recent Labour leadership contests the early favourites didn't make it.
Bailey's second preferences are likely to head to Nandy,
Nandy's will probably split 50/50 between Starmer and Bailey.
Starmer's will likely head to Nandy,
I suspect if Nandy gets into second place she may just win.0 -
Or it could just be an ordinary rugby ball and a giant android Dom ?Theuniondivvie said:
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Yes, if it's 43/29/28, something like that?eek said:I think the important bit here is where do second preferences go.
Bailey's second preferences are likely to head to Nandy,
Nandy's will probably split 50/50 between Starmer and Bailey.
Starmer's will likely head to Nandy,
I suspect if Nandy gets into second place she may just win.0 -
In the mid noughties I spent a few weeks in a secure mental health unit wherein I and my fellow cosmonauts of the psyche never looked as fucked up as this guy.Theuniondivvie said:Say what you like about Andy Coulson (and Tim did), he may have been a prick but he wasn't a really, really badly dressed prick.
https://twitter.com/Luiseach/status/1219938479645306881?s=200 -
Magic Grandpa went full on shouty mcshouty face when Boris jibed that he was the most popular Labour leader with the membership of both the Labour party and the Tory party.0
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Maybe it’s because my dress sense is uneven but I can think of far better things to make fun of Dominic Cummings about than his appearance.0
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FPT
Love this bit.CarlottaVance said:The model Britain should be looking at, from this perspective, is not Norway’s or Switzerland’s or Canada’s trading relationship with the EU, but Canada itself: a medium-size economy flourishing next to a trading superpower; an open, multicultural democracy bound by trade agreements but not supranational institutions and law; and a country that has navigated the position in which it finds itself in the world—geographically in the New World but with ties to the old, spread out and linguistically divided, multicultural and multiethnic.
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2020/01/britain-brexit-canada-model-europe/605224/
One cabinet minister, who asked for anonymity because of the sensitivity of the negotiations, told me that Ireland was a small country, which meant that the quality of its ministers could not match that of those in the U.K.. And yet this attitude proved part of London’s undoing in the negotiations, which saw Ireland win more of its objectives than Britain did.
Any ideas who this arrogant twit could have been?0 -
Britain is hardly overflowing with super talented ministers just now.Stark_Dawning said:FPT
Love this bit.CarlottaVance said:The model Britain should be looking at, from this perspective, is not Norway’s or Switzerland’s or Canada’s trading relationship with the EU, but Canada itself: a medium-size economy flourishing next to a trading superpower; an open, multicultural democracy bound by trade agreements but not supranational institutions and law; and a country that has navigated the position in which it finds itself in the world—geographically in the New World but with ties to the old, spread out and linguistically divided, multicultural and multiethnic.
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2020/01/britain-brexit-canada-model-europe/605224/
One cabinet minister, who asked for anonymity because of the sensitivity of the negotiations, told me that Ireland was a small country, which meant that the quality of its ministers could not match that of those in the U.K.. And yet this attitude proved part of London’s undoing in the negotiations, which saw Ireland win more of its objectives than Britain did.
Any ideas who this arrogant twit could have been?0 -
RBL supporters don't appear to want much comprise in their hard left position, even if it makes them unelectable...no surrender to the Blairite wing.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2020/01/21/five-more-things-we-discovered-about-labour-member0 -
'And today we unveil the Classic Dom Classic Collection for Spring '20...'Theuniondivvie said:Say what you like about Andy Coulson (and Tim did), he may have been a prick but he wasn't a really, really badly dressed prick.
https://twitter.com/Luiseach/status/1219938479645306881?s=20
I have to say, Cummings' 100%, blood-and-guts, heart-and-soul commitment to trolling in everything he does is really quite impressive.0 -
Just make a note of it for the next time a Left wing woman’s dress sense is mocked and a lefty tries to make out its outrageous sexismAlastairMeeks said:Maybe it’s because my dress sense is uneven but I can think of far better things to make fun of Dominic Cummings about than his appearance.
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It definitely has the feel of something that I, Raabot would say and 100% believe.Stark_Dawning said:FPT
Love this bit.CarlottaVance said:The model Britain should be looking at, from this perspective, is not Norway’s or Switzerland’s or Canada’s trading relationship with the EU, but Canada itself: a medium-size economy flourishing next to a trading superpower; an open, multicultural democracy bound by trade agreements but not supranational institutions and law; and a country that has navigated the position in which it finds itself in the world—geographically in the New World but with ties to the old, spread out and linguistically divided, multicultural and multiethnic.
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2020/01/britain-brexit-canada-model-europe/605224/
One cabinet minister, who asked for anonymity because of the sensitivity of the negotiations, told me that Ireland was a small country, which meant that the quality of its ministers could not match that of those in the U.K.. And yet this attitude proved part of London’s undoing in the negotiations, which saw Ireland win more of its objectives than Britain did.
Any ideas who this arrogant twit could have been?0 -
Nah, he just took the ball off the Munchkins. Because they were having fun.Nigelb said:0 -
Light blue touchpaper.FrancisUrquhart said:Magic Grandpa went full on shouty mcshouty face when Boris jibed that he was the most popular Labour leader with the membership of both the Labour party and the Tory party.
Stand well back.....0 -
fpt
That's it? Canada?CarlottaVance said:The model Britain should be looking at, from this perspective, is not Norway’s or Switzerland’s or Canada’s trading relationship with the EU, but Canada itself: a medium-size economy flourishing next to a trading superpower; an open, multicultural democracy bound by trade agreements but not supranational institutions and law; and a country that has navigated the position in which it finds itself in the world—geographically in the New World but with ties to the old, spread out and linguistically divided, multicultural and multiethnic.
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2020/01/britain-brexit-canada-model-europe/605224/0 -
Aye but did you mastermind both a destiny changing referendum result and the biggest parliamentary majority for almost twenty years while there?Dura_Ace said:
In the mid noughties I spent a few weeks in a secure mental health unit wherein I and my fellow cosmonauts of the psyche never looked as fucked up as this guy.Theuniondivvie said:Say what you like about Andy Coulson (and Tim did), he may have been a prick but he wasn't a really, really badly dressed prick.
https://twitter.com/Luiseach/status/1219938479645306881?s=201 -
Perhaps those attacking Cummings might actually like to read some of his blogs, and sift through the evidence he presents before making a judgement.
He points out that the civil service's finest are unable to write reports that aren't littered with grammatical and spelling errors. He points out they are unable to interpret even the most basic mathematical or graphically presented data. He points out that forecasting and estimations ministers rely on are based on politically driven assumptions and not mathematical modelling.
His faith in IQ, AI, technology and mathematics is sometimes naive, and I don't agree with some of his solutions, but there is strong evidence of systemic failings.3 -
The 28 current EU countries already have varying VAT rates and varying exemptions, so I don't see why that should be a problem.rottenborough said:3 -
Does he IYO present good evidence in his blogs for these charges then?contrarian said:Perhaps those attacking Cummings might actually like to read some of his blogs, and sift through the evidence he presents before making a judgement.
He points out that the civil service's finest are unable to write reports that aren't littered with grammatical and spelling errors. He points out they are unable to interpret even the most basic mathematical or graphically presented data. He points out that forecasting and estimations ministers rely on are based on politically driven assumptions and not mathematical modelling.
His faith in IQ, AI, technology and mathematics is sometimes naive, and I don't agree with some of his solutions, but there is strong evidence of systemic failings.0 -
Monty Python star Terry Jones has died aged 770
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It’s an absurdly optimistic aspiration given how Leavers have trashed every civic institution in the country and incinerated Britain’s international influence, but at least it’s something for Leavers to imagine idly at the end of a long day’s nihilistic rage.TOPPING said:fpt
That's it? Canada?CarlottaVance said:The model Britain should be looking at, from this perspective, is not Norway’s or Switzerland’s or Canada’s trading relationship with the EU, but Canada itself: a medium-size economy flourishing next to a trading superpower; an open, multicultural democracy bound by trade agreements but not supranational institutions and law; and a country that has navigated the position in which it finds itself in the world—geographically in the New World but with ties to the old, spread out and linguistically divided, multicultural and multiethnic.
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2020/01/britain-brexit-canada-model-europe/605224/0 -
Wasn’t he an advisor to the one-time Education Secretary? Is it just remotely possible that some of the actions taken by the Education Minister based on his advice might in any way be connected to the grammatical and spelling errors and the inability to interpret mathematical and graphical data he is now complaining about?contrarian said:Perhaps those attacking Cummings might actually like to read some of his blogs, and sift through the evidence he presents before making a judgement.
He points out that the civil service's finest are unable to write reports that aren't littered with grammatical and spelling errors. He points out they are unable to interpret even the most basic mathematical or graphically presented data. He points out that forecasting and estimations ministers rely on are based on politically driven assumptions and not mathematical modelling.
His faith in IQ, AI, technology and mathematics is sometimes naive, and I don't agree with some of his solutions, but there is strong evidence of systemic failings.0 -
Not to kick off another "culture war" shindig - I'm up to my ears in all that - but I did find the Cummings job ad to be sexist.NorthernPowerhouse said:Aye but did you mastermind both a destiny changing referendum result and the biggest parliamentary majority for almost twenty years while there?
"Supertalented, weirdos, geeks and misfits."
Mental image almost wholly male? I think so.
Likely to attract plenty of female applicants? IMO, no chance.
Legal? Perhaps. But ethical? - deeply arguable.0 -
Also worth noting that NI’s devolved assembly has voted against the WA which so many on here have described as being utterly wonderful for them. Let’s see how far the belief in getting NI’s consent - something which seemed absolutely critical when it came to the backstop) - extends.rottenborough said:0 -
Probably more specifically Alberta as far as the likes of Rees Mogg, IDS, Farage and Francois are concernedTOPPING said:fpt
That's it? Canada?CarlottaVance said:The model Britain should be looking at, from this perspective, is not Norway’s or Switzerland’s or Canada’s trading relationship with the EU, but Canada itself: a medium-size economy flourishing next to a trading superpower; an open, multicultural democracy bound by trade agreements but not supranational institutions and law; and a country that has navigated the position in which it finds itself in the world—geographically in the New World but with ties to the old, spread out and linguistically divided, multicultural and multiethnic.
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2020/01/britain-brexit-canada-model-europe/605224/0 -
Rubbish news about Terry Jones, what an awful disease that is.2
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I just tried to get a ticket for Saturday's leadership hustings in Leeds. Fully booked. Seems a bit unfair that it is first come, first served, rather than everyone going into a draw to allocate tickets.
I guess I could stand outside with a large #Sandy4Nandy placard, until the police move me on.1 -
In my experience of civil service advice to ministers, the quality of writing is very good (and certainly much more concise and easier to follow than what's on Cummings' blog). If anything I think there's an overinvestment in prose at the expense of actual evidence.contrarian said:Perhaps those attacking Cummings might actually like to read some of his blogs, and sift through the evidence he presents before making a judgement.
He points out that the civil service's finest are unable to write reports that aren't littered with grammatical and spelling errors. He points out they are unable to interpret even the most basic mathematical or graphically presented data. He points out that forecasting and estimations ministers rely on are based on politically driven assumptions and not mathematical modelling.
His faith in IQ, AI, technology and mathematics is sometimes naive, and I don't agree with some of his solutions, but there is strong evidence of systemic failings.0 -
Careful now. They had an NDP government not so long ago.HYUFD said:
Probably more specifically Alberta as far as the likes of Rees Mogg, IDS, Farage and Francois are concernedTOPPING said:fpt
That's it? Canada?CarlottaVance said:The model Britain should be looking at, from this perspective, is not Norway’s or Switzerland’s or Canada’s trading relationship with the EU, but Canada itself: a medium-size economy flourishing next to a trading superpower; an open, multicultural democracy bound by trade agreements but not supranational institutions and law; and a country that has navigated the position in which it finds itself in the world—geographically in the New World but with ties to the old, spread out and linguistically divided, multicultural and multiethnic.
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2020/01/britain-brexit-canada-model-europe/605224/0 -
As long as Northern Ireland stays in the Union the UK government will decide Brexit for Northern Ireland, the Withdrawal Agreement protects the Good Friday Agreement which is the only requirement Northern Ireland needs respectedCyclefree said:
Also worth noting that NI’s devolved assembly has voted against the WA which so many on here have described as being utterly wonderful for them. Let’s see how far the belief in getting NI’s consent - something which seemed absolutely critical when it came to the backstop) - extends.rottenborough said:0 -
That's a good question, and I have to admit I didn't see an actual report written by an actual civil servant. He does not present one. But his blogs are long, painstaking and detailed and contain plenty of lengthy anecdotes.kinabalu said:
Does he IYO present good evidence in his blogs for these charges then?contrarian said:Perhaps those attacking Cummings might actually like to read some of his blogs, and sift through the evidence he presents before making a judgement.
He points out that the civil service's finest are unable to write reports that aren't littered with grammatical and spelling errors. He points out they are unable to interpret even the most basic mathematical or graphically presented data. He points out that forecasting and estimations ministers rely on are based on politically driven assumptions and not mathematical modelling.
His faith in IQ, AI, technology and mathematics is sometimes naive, and I don't agree with some of his solutions, but there is strong evidence of systemic failings.
For example he relates how mandarins complained when he and Gove raised the issue of poor reporting from their departments and they in response they made the mandarins do all the checking of the reports themselves.
They then quickly conceded there might be a problem.
Personally I don;t think he's making this up. As I say, I don;t agree with some of his solutions, and at times he can be vituperative. He does not like PPE graduates.0 -
The Conservative Party of Canada won 64 out of 87 seats in the Alberta election last year and 54% of the vote, an even bigger landslide than Boris got.SandyRentool said:
Careful now. They had an NDP government not so long ago.HYUFD said:
Probably more specifically Alberta as far as the likes of Rees Mogg, IDS, Farage and Francois are concernedTOPPING said:fpt
That's it? Canada?CarlottaVance said:The model Britain should be looking at, from this perspective, is not Norway’s or Switzerland’s or Canada’s trading relationship with the EU, but Canada itself: a medium-size economy flourishing next to a trading superpower; an open, multicultural democracy bound by trade agreements but not supranational institutions and law; and a country that has navigated the position in which it finds itself in the world—geographically in the New World but with ties to the old, spread out and linguistically divided, multicultural and multiethnic.
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2020/01/britain-brexit-canada-model-europe/605224/
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Alberta_general_election
Despite Trudeau's Liberals scraping home with most seats nationally at the last Canadian election and doing a deal with the NDP, in Alberta the Conservatives won 33 out of 34 seats to just 1 for the NDP.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Canadian_federal_election0 -
Sinn Fein thanks HYUFD for adding another few thousand to the border poll tally.HYUFD said:
As long as Northern Ireland stays in the Union the UK government will decide Brexit for Northern Ireland, the Withdrawal Agreement protects the Good Friday Agreement which is the only requirement Northern Ireland needs respectedCyclefree said:
Also worth noting that NI’s devolved assembly has voted against the WA which so many on here have described as being utterly wonderful for them. Let’s see how far the belief in getting NI’s consent - something which seemed absolutely critical when it came to the backstop) - extends.rottenborough said:0 -
Cummings gives no fucks about what he wears.0
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Fair enough, and Cummings does point out there are plenty of exceptions.rkrkrk said:
In my experience of civil service advice to ministers, the quality of writing is very good (and certainly much more concise and easier to follow than what's on Cummings' blog). If anything I think there's an overinvestment in prose at the expense of actual evidence.contrarian said:Perhaps those attacking Cummings might actually like to read some of his blogs, and sift through the evidence he presents before making a judgement.
He points out that the civil service's finest are unable to write reports that aren't littered with grammatical and spelling errors. He points out they are unable to interpret even the most basic mathematical or graphically presented data. He points out that forecasting and estimations ministers rely on are based on politically driven assumptions and not mathematical modelling.
His faith in IQ, AI, technology and mathematics is sometimes naive, and I don't agree with some of his solutions, but there is strong evidence of systemic failings.0 -
Clearly a bright guy anyway. Probably suffering a bout of hubris atm, off the back of 2016 and 2019 triumphs, but this does not mean he doesn't have some good ideas on civil service reform. I really do not want to read his blogs but I suppose I ought to given he is the man of the moment.contrarian said:That's a good question, and I have to admit I didn't see an actual report written by an actual civil servant. He does not present one. But his blogs are long, painstaking and detailed and contain plenty of lengthy anecdotes.
For example he relates how mandarins complained when he and Gove raised the issue of poor reporting from their departments and they in response they made the mandarins do all the checking of the reports themselves.
They then quickly conceded there might be a problem.
Personally I don;t think he's making this up. As I say, I don;t agree with some of his solutions, and at times he can be vituperative. He does not like PPE graduates.0 -
Unless you take the view that Boris's word means something. He did say more than once there would be no border down the Irish Sea. Can Boris square the circle?HYUFD said:
As long as Northern Ireland stays in the Union the UK government will decide Brexit for Northern Ireland, the Withdrawal Agreement protects the Good Friday Agreement which is the only requirement Northern Ireland needs respectedCyclefree said:
Also worth noting that NI’s devolved assembly has voted against the WA which so many on here have described as being utterly wonderful for them. Let’s see how far the belief in getting NI’s consent - something which seemed absolutely critical when it came to the backstop) - extends.rottenborough said:0 -
Talking of sex appeal, did you know that one of the runners for Deputy Leader is a former model?WhisperingOracle said:
Nandy might run Starmer closer than a lot of people think, I think, although I doubt she will be leader before Starmer. Among my amateur focus group of my sons she seems to have a rare mix of quirkiness, intelligence and sex appeal.Slackbladder said:It's certainly looking like Starmer is a shoo in, unless the membership really has changed in a way not picked up yet.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3601941/SEBASTIAN-SHAKESPEARE-Curious-case-Labour-hopeful-says-ve-not-swimwear-model.html0 -
They're quite entertaining, although you'd have to be very well read to know all of the random people and ideas he drops in.kinabalu said:
Clearly a bright guy anyway. Probably suffering a bout of hubris atm, off the back of 2016 and 2019 triumphs, but this does not mean he doesn't have some good ideas on civil service reform. I really do not want to read his blogs but I suppose I ought to given he is the man of the moment.contrarian said:That's a good question, and I have to admit I didn't see an actual report written by an actual civil servant. He does not present one. But his blogs are long, painstaking and detailed and contain plenty of lengthy anecdotes.
For example he relates how mandarins complained when he and Gove raised the issue of poor reporting from their departments and they in response they made the mandarins do all the checking of the reports themselves.
They then quickly conceded there might be a problem.
Personally I don;t think he's making this up. As I say, I don;t agree with some of his solutions, and at times he can be vituperative. He does not like PPE graduates.0 -
Thankfully Rosanna Allin Khan not Richard BurgonAnabobazina said:
Talking of sex appeal, did you know that one of the runners for Deputy Leader is a former model?WhisperingOracle said:
Nandy might run Starmer closer than a lot of people think, I think, although I doubt she will be leader before Starmer. Among my amateur focus group of my sons she seems to have a rare mix of quirkiness, intelligence and sex appeal.Slackbladder said:It's certainly looking like Starmer is a shoo in, unless the membership really has changed in a way not picked up yet.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3601941/SEBASTIAN-SHAKESPEARE-Curious-case-Labour-hopeful-says-ve-not-swimwear-model.html2 -
There is a lot of it about, as the doctors say. Look how often donations to mental health charities are solicited in funeral notices. It used to be mooted that smoking protected against Parkinson's and dementia, which would be ironic if true.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Rubbish news about Terry Jones, what an awful disease that is.
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With him and Boris in No 10, it's surely the scruffiest Downing Street team in history. Both men are inveterate slobs.Pulpstar said:Cummings gives no fucks about what he wears.
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Far from it, the fact the Good Friday Agreement is protected and there is no hard border with the Republic of Ireland but Northern Ireland still remains in the UK and leaves the EU is a key reason Unionist parties comfortably beat Nationalist parties 43% to 38% in the general election in Northern Ireland last month.eek said:
Sinn Fein thanks HYUFD for adding another few thousand to the border poll tally.HYUFD said:
As long as Northern Ireland stays in the Union the UK government will decide Brexit for Northern Ireland, the Withdrawal Agreement protects the Good Friday Agreement which is the only requirement Northern Ireland needs respectedCyclefree said:
Also worth noting that NI’s devolved assembly has voted against the WA which so many on here have described as being utterly wonderful for them. Let’s see how far the belief in getting NI’s consent - something which seemed absolutely critical when it came to the backstop) - extends.rottenborough said:
0 -
A split right realised they had to get together in order to win under FPTP.HYUFD said:
The Conservative Party of Canada won 64 out of 87 seats in the Alberta election last year and 54% of the vote, an even bigger landslide than Boris got.SandyRentool said:
Careful now. They had an NDP government not so long ago.HYUFD said:
Probably more specifically Alberta as far as the likes of Rees Mogg, IDS, Farage and Francois are concernedTOPPING said:fpt
That's it? Canada?CarlottaVance said:The model Britain should be looking at, from this perspective, is not Norway’s or Switzerland’s or Canada’s trading relationship with the EU, but Canada itself: a medium-size economy flourishing next to a trading superpower; an open, multicultural democracy bound by trade agreements but not supranational institutions and law; and a country that has navigated the position in which it finds itself in the world—geographically in the New World but with ties to the old, spread out and linguistically divided, multicultural and multiethnic.
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2020/01/britain-brexit-canada-model-europe/605224/
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Alberta_general_election
Despite Trudeau's Liberals scraping home with most seats nationally at the last Canadian election and doing a deal with the NDP, in Alberta the Conservatives won 33 out of 34 seats to just 1 for the NDP.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Canadian_federal_election
As an aside, I had initially assumed that Wildrose was some kind of eco-friendly kumbaya party. Came as a surprise when I discovered that they were right wing loons.1 -
Lisa Nandy through but oddly she is drifting in the betting on that news. It may be people looking again at the polling.Richard_Nabavi said:0 -
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Yes, my grandfather got Alzheimer's (although he lived to 91, despite smoking Capstan full strength daily for most of his life). It is very hard on families, who are robbed of the person that they knew, only getting occasional glimpses of their former self.DecrepiterJohnL said:
There is a lot of it about, as the doctors say. Look how often donations to mental health charities are solicited in funeral notices. It used to be mooted that smoking protected against Parkinson's and dementia, which would be ironic if true.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Rubbish news about Terry Jones, what an awful disease that is.
0 -
Plus of course the sometimes round the clock personal care that is sometimes needed.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Yes, my grandfather got Alzheimer's (although he lived to 91, despite smoking Capstan full strength daily for most of his life). It is very hard on families, who are robbed of the person that they knew, only getting occasional glimpses of their former self.DecrepiterJohnL said:
There is a lot of it about, as the doctors say. Look how often donations to mental health charities are solicited in funeral notices. It used to be mooted that smoking protected against Parkinson's and dementia, which would be ironic if true.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Rubbish news about Terry Jones, what an awful disease that is.
1 -
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/840653/EXPLAINER_FOR_THE_NEW_IRELAND_NORTHERN_IRELAND_PROTOCOL_AND_THE_POLITICAL_DECLARATION_ON_THE_FUTURE_RELATIONSHIP.pdfrottenborough said:
It would be nice if our journalists could be bothered to read the Govt explanation of the Irish Protocol. Point 17 seems to be clear to me.0 -
Ignoring facts again. Since the election the Stormont Assembly has voted against the WA.HYUFD said:
Far from it, the fact the Good Friday Agreement is protected and there is no hard border with the Republic of Ireland but Northern Ireland still remains in the UK and leaves the EU is a key reason Unionist parties comfortably beat Nationalist parties 43% to 38% in the general election in Northern Ireland last month.eek said:
Sinn Fein thanks HYUFD for adding another few thousand to the border poll tally.HYUFD said:
As long as Northern Ireland stays in the Union the UK government will decide Brexit for Northern Ireland, the Withdrawal Agreement protects the Good Friday Agreement which is the only requirement Northern Ireland needs respectedCyclefree said:
Also worth noting that NI’s devolved assembly has voted against the WA which so many on here have described as being utterly wonderful for them. Let’s see how far the belief in getting NI’s consent - something which seemed absolutely critical when it came to the backstop) - extends.rottenborough said:
Do you really think imposing a WA on a province which does not support it will have no consequences, either for that province or its relationship with the rest of the country?0 -
'is the key reason'? Might be. Might not be. Suspect it never crossed the mind of the vast majority. Do you think if the situation was different a whole lot of protestants might vote Sinn Fein or SDLP and Catholics DUP or UUP?HYUFD said:
Far from it, the fact the Good Friday Agreement is protected and there is no hard border with the Republic of Ireland but Northern Ireland still remains in the UK and leaves the EU is a key reason Unionist parties comfortably beat Nationalist parties 43% to 38% in the general election in Northern Ireland last month.eek said:
Sinn Fein thanks HYUFD for adding another few thousand to the border poll tally.HYUFD said:
As long as Northern Ireland stays in the Union the UK government will decide Brexit for Northern Ireland, the Withdrawal Agreement protects the Good Friday Agreement which is the only requirement Northern Ireland needs respectedCyclefree said:
Also worth noting that NI’s devolved assembly has voted against the WA which so many on here have described as being utterly wonderful for them. Let’s see how far the belief in getting NI’s consent - something which seemed absolutely critical when it came to the backstop) - extends.rottenborough said:0 -
I am writing this reply while sitting in a civil service department on a secondment. I'm in a different sector to Cummings' experiences, but the staff I meet are broadly highly skilled (with variation, as in any workplace).contrarian said:Perhaps those attacking Cummings might actually like to read some of his blogs, and sift through the evidence he presents before making a judgement.
He points out that the civil service's finest are unable to write reports that aren't littered with grammatical and spelling errors. He points out they are unable to interpret even the most basic mathematical or graphically presented data. He points out that forecasting and estimations ministers rely on are based on politically driven assumptions and not mathematical modelling.
His faith in IQ, AI, technology and mathematics is sometimes naive, and I don't agree with some of his solutions, but there is strong evidence of systemic failings.
Most civil service reports are available online under FoI. Those defending Cummings might actually like to read some of them: maybe they could point out all these errors that supposedly exist? If briefings for ministers are more error-laden, perhaps that's because the politicians ask for briefings on random subjects at very short notice?
There are certainly aspects of the civil service that could use reform. There are areas of failings. Civil society does tend to value literacy over numeracy: I'd happily see far more maths training for many civil servants. The worst problem I see, however, is high turnover, which is sometimes driven by politicians desiring to be seen to have done something and calling for a re-organisation. The disruption and the loss of institutional memory is costly.
We can also talk about pay. The Conservative Party strongly believes that high pay is appropriate in the private sector if that is what market forces demand. Oddly, when it comes to public sector pay, the idea that better pay attracts more skilled people is forgotten. The civil service loses skilled people to the private sector all the time.1 -
No you are.Cyclefree said:
Ignoring facts again. Since the election the Stormont Assembly has voted against the WA.HYUFD said:
Far from it, the fact the Good Friday Agreement is protected and there is no hard border with the Republic of Ireland but Northern Ireland still remains in the UK and leaves the EU is a key reason Unionist parties comfortably beat Nationalist parties 43% to 38% in the general election in Northern Ireland last month.eek said:
Sinn Fein thanks HYUFD for adding another few thousand to the border poll tally.HYUFD said:
As long as Northern Ireland stays in the Union the UK government will decide Brexit for Northern Ireland, the Withdrawal Agreement protects the Good Friday Agreement which is the only requirement Northern Ireland needs respectedCyclefree said:
Also worth noting that NI’s devolved assembly has voted against the WA which so many on here have described as being utterly wonderful for them. Let’s see how far the belief in getting NI’s consent - something which seemed absolutely critical when it came to the backstop) - extends.rottenborough said:
Do you really think imposing a WA on a province which does not support it will have no consequences, either for that province or its relationship with the rest of the country?
We are a United Kingdom and devolved governments are subordinate to and were created by Westminster. End of conversation.
Despite EU fanatics like you being desperate to break up the Union and reverse Brexit 54% of Scots voted for Unionist parties at the general election and 43% of Northern Ireland voters voted for Unionist parties compared to just 38% for Nationalist parties after the Withdrawal Agreement was agreed0 -
I think that if I got it I’d be inclined to do away with myself before I inflicted my decline on my family. Not Dignitas which seems the very opposite of dignified. Disappearing into the Mediterranean Sea off the coast of Amalfi or dying in the middle of my garden seem infinitely preferable. At least the final view would be of somewhere beautiful not some grey room.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Yes, my grandfather got Alzheimer's (although he lived to 91, despite smoking Capstan full strength daily for most of his life). It is very hard on families, who are robbed of the person that they knew, only getting occasional glimpses of their former self.DecrepiterJohnL said:
There is a lot of it about, as the doctors say. Look how often donations to mental health charities are solicited in funeral notices. It used to be mooted that smoking protected against Parkinson's and dementia, which would be ironic if true.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Rubbish news about Terry Jones, what an awful disease that is.
0 -
Michael Palin on World at One confirming his rep as the nicest man alive in the UK.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Rubbish news about Terry Jones, what an awful disease that is.
1 -
Irrelevant, the fact is more Northern Ireland voters voted for London to be the supreme decider of their affairs not Dublin despite Brexitkjh said:
'is the key reason'? Might be. Might not be. Suspect it never crossed the mind of the vast majority. Do you think if the situation was different a whole lot of protestants might vote Sinn Fein or SDLP and Catholics DUP or UUP?HYUFD said:
Far from it, the fact the Good Friday Agreement is protected and there is no hard border with the Republic of Ireland but Northern Ireland still remains in the UK and leaves the EU is a key reason Unionist parties comfortably beat Nationalist parties 43% to 38% in the general election in Northern Ireland last month.eek said:
Sinn Fein thanks HYUFD for adding another few thousand to the border poll tally.HYUFD said:
As long as Northern Ireland stays in the Union the UK government will decide Brexit for Northern Ireland, the Withdrawal Agreement protects the Good Friday Agreement which is the only requirement Northern Ireland needs respectedCyclefree said:
Also worth noting that NI’s devolved assembly has voted against the WA which so many on here have described as being utterly wonderful for them. Let’s see how far the belief in getting NI’s consent - something which seemed absolutely critical when it came to the backstop) - extends.rottenborough said:0 -
What did the unionist parties get in 2010 or 2015? The trend is definitely not in their favour.HYUFD said:
Far from it, the fact the Good Friday Agreement is protected and there is no hard border with the Republic of Ireland but Northern Ireland still remains in the UK and leaves the EU is a key reason Unionist parties comfortably beat Nationalist parties 43% to 38% in the general election in Northern Ireland last month.eek said:
Sinn Fein thanks HYUFD for adding another few thousand to the border poll tally.HYUFD said:
As long as Northern Ireland stays in the Union the UK government will decide Brexit for Northern Ireland, the Withdrawal Agreement protects the Good Friday Agreement which is the only requirement Northern Ireland needs respectedCyclefree said:
Also worth noting that NI’s devolved assembly has voted against the WA which so many on here have described as being utterly wonderful for them. Let’s see how far the belief in getting NI’s consent - something which seemed absolutely critical when it came to the backstop) - extends.rottenborough said:
Separately I would hope your maths is good enough to understand that 43% isn't enough to win a referendum.0 -
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Trump seems to favour Bernie for the Democratic nomination https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1219973879692713989?s=20
https://twitter.com/DailyCaller/status/1219329605720518656?s=200 -
And yet his fanbois think it's trolling.Pulpstar said:Cummings gives no fucks about what he wears.
I have to say it gives the impression of an AWFUL lot of effort being put into it, reminiscent of several dicks I knew at art school.0 -
I see that once again you misrepresent my position.HYUFD said:
No you are.Cyclefree said:
Ignoring facts again. Since the election the Stormont Assembly has voted against the WA.HYUFD said:
Far from it, the fact the Good Friday Agreement is protected and there is no hard border with the Republic of Ireland but Northern Ireland still remains in the UK and leaves the EU is a key reason Unionist parties comfortably beat Nationalist parties 43% to 38% in the general election in Northern Ireland last month.eek said:
Sinn Fein thanks HYUFD for adding another few thousand to the border poll tally.HYUFD said:
As long as Northern Ireland stays in the Union the UK government will decide Brexit for Northern Ireland, the Withdrawal Agreement protects the Good Friday Agreement which is the only requirement Northern Ireland needs respectedCyclefree said:
Also worth noting that NI’s devolved assembly has voted against the WA which so many on here have described as being utterly wonderful for them. Let’s see how far the belief in getting NI’s consent - something which seemed absolutely critical when it came to the backstop) - extends.rottenborough said:
Do you really think imposing a WA on a province which does not support it will have no consequences, either for that province or its relationship with the rest of the country?
We are a United Kingdom and devolved governments are subordinate to and were created by Westminster. End of conversation.
Despite EU fanatics like you being desperate to break up the Union and reverse Brexit 54% of Scots voted for Unionist parties at the general election and 43% of Northern Ireland voters voted for Unionist parties compared to just 38% for Nationalist parties after the Withdrawal Agreement was agreed
And also that you fail to answer the question. I am well aware that Stormont is subordinate to Westminster. But my question was not about the constitutional position nor about the results of the election.
Since the election Stormont has voted against the WA. So once again - do you think that
imposing a WA on a province which does not support it will have no consequences, either for that province or its relationship with the rest of the country?
It may help you when thinking about your answer if you try to look at the possible political consequences of this in the future rather than merely repeating the legal/constitutional status as of now.0 -
‘Capstan non filters’ another slice of life from The JamAramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Yes, my grandfather got Alzheimer's (although he lived to 91, despite smoking Capstan full strength daily for most of his life). It is very hard on families, who are robbed of the person that they knew, only getting occasional glimpses of their former self.DecrepiterJohnL said:
There is a lot of it about, as the doctors say. Look how often donations to mental health charities are solicited in funeral notices. It used to be mooted that smoking protected against Parkinson's and dementia, which would be ironic if true.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Rubbish news about Terry Jones, what an awful disease that is.
‘Saturdays Kids’ described Ukip voters I thought
https://genius.com/The-jam-saturdays-kids-lyrics0 -
I was fortunate, in that the form of dementia my mother suffered until her recent passing was not Altzheimers, but another type. It meant that she did still know exactly who I was to the end - and her face would light up when she saw me arrive to visit. But she did live a world of her own creation. This meant, for example, I would get berated for not congratulating her on her recent award of the Nobel Prize.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Yes, my grandfather got Alzheimer's (although he lived to 91, despite smoking Capstan full strength daily for most of his life). It is very hard on families, who are robbed of the person that they knew, only getting occasional glimpses of their former self.DecrepiterJohnL said:
There is a lot of it about, as the doctors say. Look how often donations to mental health charities are solicited in funeral notices. It used to be mooted that smoking protected against Parkinson's and dementia, which would be ironic if true.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Rubbish news about Terry Jones, what an awful disease that is.
(Literature, if you were wondering.)1 -
In 2010 Unionist parties only got 40% so their vote has actually risen 3% despite Brexit in a decade. 43% is also more than 38%.eek said:
What did the unionist parties get in 2010 or 2015? The trend is definitely not in their favour.HYUFD said:
Far from it, the fact the Good Friday Agreement is protected and there is no hard border with the Republic of Ireland but Northern Ireland still remains in the UK and leaves the EU is a key reason Unionist parties comfortably beat Nationalist parties 43% to 38% in the general election in Northern Ireland last month.eek said:
Sinn Fein thanks HYUFD for adding another few thousand to the border poll tally.HYUFD said:
As long as Northern Ireland stays in the Union the UK government will decide Brexit for Northern Ireland, the Withdrawal Agreement protects the Good Friday Agreement which is the only requirement Northern Ireland needs respectedCyclefree said:
Also worth noting that NI’s devolved assembly has voted against the WA which so many on here have described as being utterly wonderful for them. Let’s see how far the belief in getting NI’s consent - something which seemed absolutely critical when it came to the backstop) - extends.rottenborough said:
Separately I would hope your maths is good enough to understand that 43% isn't enough to win a referendum.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_United_Kingdom_general_election_in_Northern_Ireland
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election_in_Northern_Ireland
Though Boris will of course ban any Irish unity or Scottish independence referenda as per the winning Tory manifesto anyway.0 -
I would like to think that's what I'd do, but having witnessed the disease at close quarters, when do you know when the optimal point has arrived, or at least have enough faculties left to recognise it? When does the frog realise it's boiled?Cyclefree said:
I think that if I got it I’d be inclined to do away with myself before I inflicted my decline on my family. Not Dignitas which seems the very opposite of dignified. Disappearing into the Mediterranean Sea off the coast of Amalfi or dying in the middle of my garden seem infinitely preferable. At least the final view would be of somewhere beautiful not some grey room.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Yes, my grandfather got Alzheimer's (although he lived to 91, despite smoking Capstan full strength daily for most of his life). It is very hard on families, who are robbed of the person that they knew, only getting occasional glimpses of their former self.DecrepiterJohnL said:
There is a lot of it about, as the doctors say. Look how often donations to mental health charities are solicited in funeral notices. It used to be mooted that smoking protected against Parkinson's and dementia, which would be ironic if true.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Rubbish news about Terry Jones, what an awful disease that is.
0 -
You are Melania Trump AICMFP.MarqueeMark said:
I was fortunate, in that the form of dementia my mother suffered until her recent passing was not Altzheimers, but another type. It meant that she did still know exactly who I was to the end - and her face would light up when she saw me arrive to visit. But she did live a world of her own creation. This meant, for example, I would get berated for not congratulating her on her recent award of the Nobel Prize.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Yes, my grandfather got Alzheimer's (although he lived to 91, despite smoking Capstan full strength daily for most of his life). It is very hard on families, who are robbed of the person that they knew, only getting occasional glimpses of their former self.DecrepiterJohnL said:
There is a lot of it about, as the doctors say. Look how often donations to mental health charities are solicited in funeral notices. It used to be mooted that smoking protected against Parkinson's and dementia, which would be ironic if true.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Rubbish news about Terry Jones, what an awful disease that is.
(Literature, if you were wondering.)0 -
The political consequence that the combined DUP and UUP vote was higher in 2019 than 2010 despite Brexit and the Withdrawal Agreement?Cyclefree said:
I see that once again you misrepresent my position.HYUFD said:
No you are.Cyclefree said:
Ignoring facts again. Since the election the Stormont Assembly has voted against the WA.HYUFD said:
Far from it, the fact the Good Friday Agreement is protected and there is no hard border with the Republic of Ireland but Northern Ireland still remains in the UK and leaves the EU is a key reason Unionist parties comfortably beat Nationalist parties 43% to 38% in the general election in Northern Ireland last month.eek said:
Sinn Fein thanks HYUFD for adding another few thousand to the border poll tally.HYUFD said:
As long as Northern Ireland stays in the Union the UK government will decide Brexit for Northern Ireland, the Withdrawal Agreement protects the Good Friday Agreement which is the only requirement Northern Ireland needs respectedCyclefree said:
Also worth noting that NI’s devolved assembly has voted against the WA which so many on here have described as being utterly wonderful for them. Let’s see how far the belief in getting NI’s consent - something which seemed absolutely critical when it came to the backstop) - extends.rottenborough said:
Do you really think imposing a WA on a province which does not support it will have no consequences, either for that province or its relationship with the rest of the country?
We are a United Kingdom and devolved governments are subordinate to and were created by Westminster. End of conversation.
Despite EU fanatics like you being desperate to break up the Union and reverse Brexit 54% of Scots voted for Unionist parties at the general election and 43% of Northern Ireland voters voted for Unionist parties compared to just 38% for Nationalist parties after the Withdrawal Agreement was agreed
And also that you fail to answer the question. I am well aware that Stormont is subordinate to Westminster. But my question was not about the constitutional position nor about the results of the election.
Since the election Stormont has voted against the WA. So once again - do you think that
imposing a WA on a province which does not support it will have no consequences, either for that province or its relationship with the rest of the country?
It may help you when thinking about your answer if you try to look at the possible political consequences of this in the future rather than merely repeating the legal/constitutional status as of now.0 -
Not so easy in Northern Ireland, the Good Friday Agreement requires it to occur if the conditions are met. And those conditions are:-HYUFD said:
In 2010 Unionist parties only got 40% so their vote has actually risen 3% despite Brexit in a decadeeek said:
What did the unionist parties get in 2010 or 2015? The trend is definitely not in their favour.HYUFD said:
Far from it, the fact the Good Friday Agreement is protected and there is no hard border with the Republic of Ireland but Northern Ireland still remains in the UK and leaves the EU is a key reason Unionist parties comfortably beat Nationalist parties 43% to 38% in the general election in Northern Ireland last month.eek said:
Sinn Fein thanks HYUFD for adding another few thousand to the border poll tally.HYUFD said:
As long as Northern Ireland stays in the Union the UK government will decide Brexit for Northern Ireland, the Withdrawal Agreement protects the Good Friday Agreement which is the only requirement Northern Ireland needs respectedCyclefree said:
Also worth noting that NI’s devolved assembly has voted against the WA which so many on here have described as being utterly wonderful for them. Let’s see how far the belief in getting NI’s consent - something which seemed absolutely critical when it came to the backstop) - extends.rottenborough said:
Separately I would hope your maths is good enough to understand that 43% isn't enough to win a referendum.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_United_Kingdom_general_election_in_Northern_Ireland
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election_in_Northern_Ireland
Thought Boris will of course ban any Irish unity or Scottish independence referenda as per the winning Tory manifesto anyway
“if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland”, the Secretary of State shall make an Order in Council enabling a border poll.
0 -
This is why we need legalised euthanasia in the UK, I recommend everyone to look up the Dignity in Dying campaign. People should be able to choose to pass away at a time and place of their choosing with their family and friends present (if desired. It's simply awful and scaring seeing loved ones completely mentally absent yet suffering, and is deeply unfair on children who can't afford to put their work on hold to make sure that they are there for the final moments.Cyclefree said:
I think that if I got it I’d be inclined to do away with myself before I inflicted my decline on my family. Not Dignitas which seems the very opposite of dignified. Disappearing into the Mediterranean Sea off the coast of Amalfi or dying in the middle of my garden seem infinitely preferable. At least the final view would be of somewhere beautiful not some grey room.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Yes, my grandfather got Alzheimer's (although he lived to 91, despite smoking Capstan full strength daily for most of his life). It is very hard on families, who are robbed of the person that they knew, only getting occasional glimpses of their former self.DecrepiterJohnL said:
There is a lot of it about, as the doctors say. Look how often donations to mental health charities are solicited in funeral notices. It used to be mooted that smoking protected against Parkinson's and dementia, which would be ironic if true.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Rubbish news about Terry Jones, what an awful disease that is.
3 -
And under Boris a Northern Ireland Secretary would never consider that or they would be sacked on the spoteek said:
Not so easy in Northern Ireland, the Good Friday Agreement requires it to occur if the conditions are met. And those conditions are:-HYUFD said:
In 2010 Unionist parties only got 40% so their vote has actually risen 3% despite Brexit in a decadeeek said:
What did the unionist parties get in 2010 or 2015? The trend is definitely not in their favour.HYUFD said:
Far from it, the fact the Good Friday Agreement is protected and there is no hard border with the Republic of Ireland but Northern Ireland still remains in the UK and leaves the EU is a key reason Unionist parties comfortably beat Nationalist parties 43% to 38% in the general election in Northern Ireland last month.eek said:
Sinn Fein thanks HYUFD for adding another few thousand to the border poll tally.HYUFD said:
As long as Northern Ireland stays in the Union the UK government will decide Brexit for Northern Ireland, the Withdrawal Agreement protects the Good Friday Agreement which is the only requirement Northern Ireland needs respectedCyclefree said:
Also worth noting that NI’s devolved assembly has voted against the WA which so many on here have described as being utterly wonderful for them. Let’s see how far the belief in getting NI’s consent - something which seemed absolutely critical when it came to the backstop) - extends.rottenborough said:
Separately I would hope your maths is good enough to understand that 43% isn't enough to win a referendum.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_United_Kingdom_general_election_in_Northern_Ireland
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election_in_Northern_Ireland
Thought Boris will of course ban any Irish unity or Scottish independence referenda as per the winning Tory manifesto anyway
“if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland”, the Secretary of State shall make an Order in Council enabling a border poll.0 -
I hate to break this to you but we are now in 2020.HYUFD said:
The political consequence that the combined DUP and UUP vote was higher in 2019 than 2010 despite Brexit and the Withdrawal Agreement?Cyclefree said:
I see that once again you misrepresent my position.HYUFD said:
No you are.Cyclefree said:
Ignoring facts again. Since the election the Stormont Assembly has voted against the WA.HYUFD said:
Far from it, the fact the Good Friday Agreement is protected and there is no hard border with the Republic of Ireland but Northern Ireland still remains in the UK and leaves the EU is a key reason Unionist parties comfortably beat Nationalist parties 43% to 38% in the general election in Northern Ireland last month.eek said:
Sinn Fein thanks HYUFD for adding another few thousand to the border poll tally.HYUFD said:
As long as Northern Ireland stays in the Union the UK government will decide Brexit for Northern Ireland, the Withdrawal Agreement protects the Good Friday Agreement which is the only requirement Northern Ireland needs respectedCyclefree said:
Do you really think imposing a WA on a province which does not support it will have no consequences, either for that province or its relationship with the rest of the country?
We are a United Kingdom and devolved governments are subordinate to and were created by Westminster. End of conversation.
Despite EU fanatics like you being desperate to break up the Union and reverse Brexit 54% of Scots voted for Unionist parties at the general election and 43% of Northern Ireland voters voted for Unionist parties compared to just 38% for Nationalist parties after the Withdrawal Agreement was agreed
And also that you fail to answer the question. I am well aware that Stormont is subordinate to Westminster. But my question was not about the constitutional position nor about the results of the election.
Since the election Stormont has voted against the WA. So once again - do you think that
imposing a WA on a province which does not support it will have no consequences, either for that province or its relationship with the rest of the country?
It may help you when thinking about your answer if you try to look at the possible political consequences of this in the future rather than merely repeating the legal/constitutional status as of now.0 -
The terrifying thought is being incapacitated before that option is achievable. It puts loved ones in a terrible predicament - watch you suffer, for maybe years, knowing the you before incapacity would be expessing hating every minute of it. Or resort to extreme measures - and have to take the dire consequences. I do have very great sympathies for those who take the latter course.Cyclefree said:
I think that if I got it I’d be inclined to do away with myself before I inflicted my decline on my family. Not Dignitas which seems the very opposite of dignified. Disappearing into the Mediterranean Sea off the coast of Amalfi or dying in the middle of my garden seem infinitely preferable. At least the final view would be of somewhere beautiful not some grey room.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Yes, my grandfather got Alzheimer's (although he lived to 91, despite smoking Capstan full strength daily for most of his life). It is very hard on families, who are robbed of the person that they knew, only getting occasional glimpses of their former self.DecrepiterJohnL said:
There is a lot of it about, as the doctors say. Look how often donations to mental health charities are solicited in funeral notices. It used to be mooted that smoking protected against Parkinson's and dementia, which would be ironic if true.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Rubbish news about Terry Jones, what an awful disease that is.
1 -
I don’t want to be euthanised. I will, if I have to, take my own life quietly and without fuss.Chameleon said:
This is why we need legalised euthanasia in the UK, I recommend everyone to look up the Dignity in Dying campaign. People should be able to choose to pass away at a time and place of their choosing with their family and friends present (if desired. It's simply awful and scaring seeing loved ones completely mentally absent yet suffering, and is deeply unfair on children who can't afford to put their work on hold to make sure that they are there for the final moments.Cyclefree said:
I think that if I got it I’d be inclined to do away with myself before I inflicted my decline on my family. Not Dignitas which seems the very opposite of dignified. Disappearing into the Mediterranean Sea off the coast of Amalfi or dying in the middle of my garden seem infinitely preferable. At least the final view would be of somewhere beautiful not some grey room.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Yes, my grandfather got Alzheimer's (although he lived to 91, despite smoking Capstan full strength daily for most of his life). It is very hard on families, who are robbed of the person that they knew, only getting occasional glimpses of their former self.DecrepiterJohnL said:
There is a lot of it about, as the doctors say. Look how often donations to mental health charities are solicited in funeral notices. It used to be mooted that smoking protected against Parkinson's and dementia, which would be ironic if true.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Rubbish news about Terry Jones, what an awful disease that is.
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