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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB leadership betting: Nandy edges up closer to RLB but Starm
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB leadership betting: Nandy edges up closer to RLB but Starmer remains the firm favourite
We have not looked at the LAB leadership betting since Jess Phillips dropped out and as can be seen from the latest chart the man movement has been for Lisa Nandy . This follows her latest union nomination moving her to within a whisper of getting onto the members ballot that goes out in March.
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https://twitter.com/Luiseach/status/1219938479645306881?s=20
https://mobile.twitter.com/cnnbrk/status/1219950436737830912
Per the market right now, I think Starmer should be shorter than current 1.45, Nandy should be longer than her 7, and RLB should be MUCH longer than the 6.2.
Before 2021 5/1
2021 or after 1/6
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51204554
Unlike them, she also has huge institutional disadvantages. I still expect she’ll come third.
Bailey's second preferences are likely to head to Nandy,
Nandy's will probably split 50/50 between Starmer and Bailey.
Starmer's will likely head to Nandy,
I suspect if Nandy gets into second place she may just win.
UC has its flaws, but not here, its operating as it should.
One cabinet minister, who asked for anonymity because of the sensitivity of the negotiations, told me that Ireland was a small country, which meant that the quality of its ministers could not match that of those in the U.K.. And yet this attitude proved part of London’s undoing in the negotiations, which saw Ireland win more of its objectives than Britain did.
Any ideas who this arrogant twit could have been?
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2020/01/21/five-more-things-we-discovered-about-labour-member
I have to say, Cummings' 100%, blood-and-guts, heart-and-soul commitment to trolling in everything he does is really quite impressive.
Stand well back.....
He points out that the civil service's finest are unable to write reports that aren't littered with grammatical and spelling errors. He points out they are unable to interpret even the most basic mathematical or graphically presented data. He points out that forecasting and estimations ministers rely on are based on politically driven assumptions and not mathematical modelling.
His faith in IQ, AI, technology and mathematics is sometimes naive, and I don't agree with some of his solutions, but there is strong evidence of systemic failings.
"Supertalented, weirdos, geeks and misfits."
Mental image almost wholly male? I think so.
Likely to attract plenty of female applicants? IMO, no chance.
Legal? Perhaps. But ethical? - deeply arguable.
I guess I could stand outside with a large #Sandy4Nandy placard, until the police move me on.
For example he relates how mandarins complained when he and Gove raised the issue of poor reporting from their departments and they in response they made the mandarins do all the checking of the reports themselves.
They then quickly conceded there might be a problem.
Personally I don;t think he's making this up. As I say, I don;t agree with some of his solutions, and at times he can be vituperative. He does not like PPE graduates.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Alberta_general_election
Despite Trudeau's Liberals scraping home with most seats nationally at the last Canadian election and doing a deal with the NDP, in Alberta the Conservatives won 33 out of 34 seats to just 1 for the NDP.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Canadian_federal_election
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3601941/SEBASTIAN-SHAKESPEARE-Curious-case-Labour-hopeful-says-ve-not-swimwear-model.html
As an aside, I had initially assumed that Wildrose was some kind of eco-friendly kumbaya party. Came as a surprise when I discovered that they were right wing loons.
It would be nice if our journalists could be bothered to read the Govt explanation of the Irish Protocol. Point 17 seems to be clear to me.
Do you really think imposing a WA on a province which does not support it will have no consequences, either for that province or its relationship with the rest of the country?
Most civil service reports are available online under FoI. Those defending Cummings might actually like to read some of them: maybe they could point out all these errors that supposedly exist? If briefings for ministers are more error-laden, perhaps that's because the politicians ask for briefings on random subjects at very short notice?
There are certainly aspects of the civil service that could use reform. There are areas of failings. Civil society does tend to value literacy over numeracy: I'd happily see far more maths training for many civil servants. The worst problem I see, however, is high turnover, which is sometimes driven by politicians desiring to be seen to have done something and calling for a re-organisation. The disruption and the loss of institutional memory is costly.
We can also talk about pay. The Conservative Party strongly believes that high pay is appropriate in the private sector if that is what market forces demand. Oddly, when it comes to public sector pay, the idea that better pay attracts more skilled people is forgotten. The civil service loses skilled people to the private sector all the time.
We are a United Kingdom and devolved governments are subordinate to and were created by Westminster. End of conversation.
Despite EU fanatics like you being desperate to break up the Union and reverse Brexit 54% of Scots voted for Unionist parties at the general election and 43% of Northern Ireland voters voted for Unionist parties compared to just 38% for Nationalist parties after the Withdrawal Agreement was agreed
Separately I would hope your maths is good enough to understand that 43% isn't enough to win a referendum.
https://twitter.com/DailyCaller/status/1219329605720518656?s=20
I have to say it gives the impression of an AWFUL lot of effort being put into it, reminiscent of several dicks I knew at art school.
And also that you fail to answer the question. I am well aware that Stormont is subordinate to Westminster. But my question was not about the constitutional position nor about the results of the election.
Since the election Stormont has voted against the WA. So once again - do you think that
imposing a WA on a province which does not support it will have no consequences, either for that province or its relationship with the rest of the country?
It may help you when thinking about your answer if you try to look at the possible political consequences of this in the future rather than merely repeating the legal/constitutional status as of now.
‘Saturdays Kids’ described Ukip voters I thought
https://genius.com/The-jam-saturdays-kids-lyrics
(Literature, if you were wondering.)
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_United_Kingdom_general_election_in_Northern_Ireland
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election_in_Northern_Ireland
Though Boris will of course ban any Irish unity or Scottish independence referenda as per the winning Tory manifesto anyway.
“if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland”, the Secretary of State shall make an Order in Council enabling a border poll.