politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Conservative intake of 2019 (Part 2 of 2) – the new MPs to

If the early CLP nominations are anything to go by (and to be fair, there's only be nine of them), I'm struggling to see how JP and Thornberry get on the ballot. Could well be that only RLB, Nandy, and Starmer make it.

dr_spyn said:

Outbreak of paranoia in Suffolk.

https://twitter.com/tombarton/status/1217940322208096257

Matt Hancock might think wtf when he sees what has gone on at the hospital in his constituency.

Persecution of whistleblowers in the NHS is a real problem. Minister heal thyself.

rcs1000 said:

TheGreenMachine said:

StuartDickson said:

TheGreenMachine said:

Labour 400/1. Could the same happen in England, Scotland or Wales one day?

There's a small chance in Scotland, if it was to happen in England, we wouldn't be here to witness it.

Historically dominant parties had exctinction moments in:

Labour Scotland (2015) - from 40 seats to 1
Progressive Conservatives Canada (1993) - from 156 seats to 2
PASOK Greece (2015) - Seventh place from first in a decade
Socialists France (2017) - From Presidency to 6%

I could do more. But parties get completely (or almost completely) wiped out more often than you might think.

Congress in India: 415 seats in 1984, 44 seats in 2014

First Budget leak?

https://twitter.com/sajidjavid/status/1217864671325278209

RandallFlagg said:

If the early CLP nominations are anything to go by (and to be fair, there's only be nine of them), I'm struggling to see how JP and Thornberry get on the ballot. Could well be that only RLB, Nandy, and Starmer make it.

What’s the point of a CLP backing a candidate once he/she has surpassed the 33 threshold? They might as well endorse their second choice to increase their chances of getting another favourable candidate on the ballot.

Anabobazina said:

RandallFlagg said:

If the early CLP nominations are anything to go by (and to be fair, there's only be nine of them), I'm struggling to see how JP and Thornberry get on the ballot. Could well be that only RLB, Nandy, and Starmer make it.

What’s the point of a CLP backing a candidate once he/she has surpassed the 33 threshold? They might as well endorse their second choice to increase their chances of getting another favourable candidate on the ballot.

To stop the other favourable candidate getting on the ballot.

malcolmg said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

malcolmg said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

SouthamObserver said:

Returning to the previous thread - there is no way New Zealand will agree a union with the UK. The Kiwis like being at the end of the Earth and they know free movement means a lot more low-skilled Poms arriving. It would also mess up their arrangements with Australia. No doubt tongues were very firmly in cheeks when the suggestion was made. But for anyone who was inclined to take it seriously: don’t.

I agree. I do look forward to a much closer trading relationship though. It caused genuine poverty that New Zealand has never fully recovered from when we joined the EU.

Yes shipping goods 11,000 miles will be a great way to improve our trade , we really need those sheep and apples.

New Zealand is a wonderful pristine place that unsurprisingly produces wonderfully healthy (in every sense) livestock and food. I don't really see your point to be honest.

We have plenty of sheep and apples, why would we want to ship stuff from 11K miles away that we can supply ourselves.

I agree, but when we joined the EEC we didn't replace NZ with domestic supplies, in fact British apple orchards were pulled up. People had to import from Europe instead. Now there will be a more level playing field. I don't think the distance is a major concern - it wasn't before the EEC, and transit has become quicker and cheaper.

RandallFlagg said:

Of course, it might be that Phillips' Scot Nat bashing pays off, and she gets a bunch of CLPs in Scotland. Though Starmer winning Glasgow Shettleston isn't particularly encouraging for her.

Yes, I thought that. Seems the Jess Scotch Wall broke at first CLP to vote.

England 224-4 at stumps on day one. How refreshingly old fashioned. Next we’ll have songs in the charts lamenting lost love instead of aggressive bravado

ralphmalph said:

Shami getting a doing over on QT. This is Liverpool!

SNP guy really sticking it into the Labour party.

QT: has Fox been over liberal in the green room?

Anabobazina said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

malcolmg said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

malcolmg said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

SouthamObserver said:

Returning to the previous thread - there is no way New Zealand will agree a union with the UK. The Kiwis like being at the end of the Earth and they know free movement means a lot more low-skilled Poms arriving. It would also mess up their arrangements with Australia. No doubt tongues were very firmly in cheeks when the suggestion was made. But for anyone who was inclined to take it seriously: don’t.

I agree. I do look forward to a much closer trading relationship though. It caused genuine poverty that New Zealand has never fully recovered from when we joined the EU.

Yes shipping goods 11,000 miles will be a great way to improve our trade , we really need those sheep and apples.

New Zealand is a wonderful pristine place that unsurprisingly produces wonderfully healthy (in every sense) livestock and food. I don't really see your point to be honest.

We have plenty of sheep and apples, why would we want to ship stuff from 11K miles away that we can supply ourselves.

I agree, but when we joined the EEC we didn't replace NZ with domestic supplies, in fact British apple orchards were pulled up. People had to import from Europe instead. Now there will be a more level playing field. I don't think the distance is a major concern - it wasn't before the EEC, and transit has become quicker and cheaper.

Shipping goods that far when they are available closer to home is insanity.

It's a view.

RandallFlagg said:

Of course, it might be that Phillips' Scot Nat bashing pays off, and she gets a bunch of CLPs in Scotland. Though Starmer winning Glasgow Shettleston isn't particularly encouraging for her.

I'm not sure if Blair McDougall (JP's Scottish advisor) is particularly representative of SLab as it exists currently.

A quick swing through his cv isn't much more reassuring from her point of view.

Coordinated David Miliband's campaign for the party leadership
An advisor in Jim Murphy's 2015 GE campaign.
Scottish Labour candidate for East Renfrewshire in the 2017 UK general election. in which he came third.

I might be wrong but I can't recall Owen Smith being particularly strident over the Scottish question in 2016 when he won a slight majority north of the border, I think it was more he was the 'sensible' centrist candidate. It wouldn't surprise me if Starmer managed that trick even more successfully.

Gabs3 said:

rpjs said:

IanB2 said:

FF43 said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

LOL

The Brexiteers aren't happy with Boris.

https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1217919092058927107

I really am at quite a loss why so many people have for one cared about Big Ben bonging, and for two gotten angry about it not happening. It's parody as reality.

Sovereignty. We voted Leave to Take Back Control. If we can't even control when Big Ben bongs, what's the point?

A good question still awaiting a credible answer.

Global Britain which can't even get a clock to work. Brexit is going to be such a disaster we'll be in the Euro and Schengen within five years.

Good. We Rejoiners need to stop arguing for a compromise situation. We should argue full throatedly for the Euro and Schengen.

Don't you think it might be a good idea until the Euro was evidently a success first? Certainly, it would seem like a less risky option.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

SandyRentool said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

IshmaelZ said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

What on earth is the Socialist Environment and Resources Association? Do they have vicious feuds with other Environment and Resources Associations?

Not a great acronym for an activist group, it hints at a kind of acceptant fatalism.

Que sera sera?

How about forming a Socialist Railway Cranks Society, affiliating to Labour and getting a nomination?

You can form the SRCS, I'd rather form a Commonwealth Railway Cranks Society

The list of bone fide affiliates includes ASLEF RMT and TSSA

NickPalmer said:

Note the small total number - nowhere near the claimed membership, but then a number of members (2 out of 3 that I know) didn't get the question sent to them.

Not taking part in an election with a loaded question like that says something good about the other 1/3, I hope they also sent back an empty prepaid envelope.

In your honest opinion, what's the best bet of 2020?

rcs1000 said:

Gabs3 said:

rpjs said:

IanB2 said:

FF43 said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

LOL

The Brexiteers aren't happy with Boris.

https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1217919092058927107

I really am at quite a loss why so many people have for one cared about Big Ben bonging, and for two gotten angry about it not happening. It's parody as reality.

Sovereignty. We voted Leave to Take Back Control. If we can't even control when Big Ben bongs, what's the point?

A good question still awaiting a credible answer.

Global Britain which can't even get a clock to work. Brexit is going to be such a disaster we'll be in the Euro and Schengen within five years.

Good. We Rejoiners need to stop arguing for a compromise situation. We should argue full throatedly for the Euro and Schengen.

Don't you think it might be a good idea until the Euro was evidently a success first? Certainly, it would seem like a less risky option.

The Euro will only be a success once fiscal transfer are in place. That will be much harder to convince the British electorate to sign up to. Better to get in the Euro first.

What is it with Nats & flags.....

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1217945835696218112?s=20

rcs1000 said:

Gabs3 said:

Good. We Rejoiners need to stop arguing for a compromise situation. We should argue full throatedly for the Euro and Schengen.

Don't you think it might be a good idea until the Euro was evidently a success first? Certainly, it would seem like a less risky option.

Kind of you to participate in this person's LARP

isam said:

England 224-4 at stumps on day one. How refreshingly old fashioned. Next we’ll have songs in the charts lamenting lost love instead of aggressive bravado

That almost sounds as though you’re on board with the shift from Leave to Rejoin...

rpjs said:

IanB2 said:

FF43 said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

LOL

The Brexiteers aren't happy with Boris.

https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1217919092058927107

I really am at quite a loss why so many people have for one cared about Big Ben bonging, and for two gotten angry about it not happening. It's parody as reality.

Sovereignty. We voted Leave to Take Back Control. If we can't even control when Big Ben bongs, what's the point?

A good question still awaiting a credible answer.

Global Britain which can't even get a clock to work. Brexit is going to be such a disaster we'll be in the Euro and Schengen within five years.

I can guarantee you it will be at least seven years, and probably more than ten.

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Casino_Royale said:

rpjs said:

IanB2 said:

FF43 said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

LOL

The Brexiteers aren't happy with Boris.

https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1217919092058927107

I really am at quite a loss why so many people have for one cared about Big Ben bonging, and for two gotten angry about it not happening. It's parody as reality.

Sovereignty. We voted Leave to Take Back Control. If we can't even control when Big Ben bongs, what's the point?

A good question still awaiting a credible answer.

Global Britain which can't even get a clock to work. Brexit is going to be such a disaster we'll be in the Euro and Schengen within five years.

I can guarantee you it will be at least seven years, and probably more than ten.

As long as that? We could fix Big Ben twice in ten years (renovation started in 2017 and is scheduled to finish in 2021).

You'd only hear the bongs live if you were at the Westminster knees-up being promoted by Nigel Farage to celebrate what he had earlier denounced as BINO. Perhaps the BBC could dig out the record they used during the war so as not to broadcast the sound of enemy bombers overhead.

Casino_Royale said:

rpjs said:

IanB2 said:

FF43 said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

LOL

The Brexiteers aren't happy with Boris.

https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1217919092058927107

I really am at quite a loss why so many people have for one cared about Big Ben bonging, and for two gotten angry about it not happening. It's parody as reality.

Sovereignty. We voted Leave to Take Back Control. If we can't even control when Big Ben bongs, what's the point?

A good question still awaiting a credible answer.

Global Britain which can't even get a clock to work. Brexit is going to be such a disaster we'll be in the Euro and Schengen within five years.

I can guarantee you it will be at least seven years, and probably more than ten.

As someone who was first of all a Joiner, then a Remainer and now has to be a Rejoiner I hope I live to see it.

I hope, though, that that when that happy day comes we'll say to those opposed; we understand why, you tried, but we're obviously going to be better off back in. As opposed to the aggressive, triumphalist attitude being shown by loo many (not all) Leavers now.

IshmaelZ said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

rpjs said:

IanB2 said:

FF43 said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

LOL

The Brexiteers aren't happy with Boris.

https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1217919092058927107

I really am at quite a loss why so many people have for one cared about Big Ben bonging, and for two gotten angry about it not happening. It's parody as reality.

Sovereignty. We voted Leave to Take Back Control. If we can't even control when Big Ben bongs, what's the point?

A good question still awaiting a credible answer.

Global Britain which can't even get a clock to work. Brexit is going to be such a disaster we'll be in the Euro and Schengen within five years.

I can guarantee you it will be at least seven years, and probably more than ten.

When that glorious day comes we shall be magnanimous and not remind Leavers the role they played in making it happen.

Your grandchildren can be magnanimous about it, if they like. 15-20 years would be a highly optimistic estimate.

Depends how messy Brexit becomes. If it becomes very messy very quickly then we’ll have rejoined long before I retire.

IshmaelZ said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

IshmaelZ said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

rpjs said:

IanB2 said:

FF43 said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

LOL

The Brexiteers aren't happy with Boris.

https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1217919092058927107

I really am at quite a loss why so many people have for one cared about Big Ben bonging, and for two gotten angry about it not happening. It's parody as reality.

Sovereignty. We voted Leave to Take Back Control. If we can't even control when Big Ben bongs, what's the point?

A good question still awaiting a credible answer.

Global Britain which can't even get a clock to work. Brexit is going to be such a disaster we'll be in the Euro and Schengen within five years.

I can guarantee you it will be at least seven years, and probably more than ten.

When that glorious day comes we shall be magnanimous and not remind Leavers the role they played in making it happen.

Your grandchildren can be magnanimous about it, if they like. 15-20 years would be a highly optimistic estimate.

Depends how messy Brexit becomes. If it becomes very messy very quickly then we’ll have rejoined long before I retire.

It took the USA 13 years to reverse an idea as stupid and messy as prohibition. That reversal did not require the cooperation of an alliance of foreign countries.

They’ll be fine with it if we sign up to the Euro and Schengen.

IshmaelZ said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

IshmaelZ said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

IshmaelZ said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

rpjs said:

IanB2 said:

FF43 said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

LOL

The Brexiteers aren't happy with Boris.

https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1217919092058927107

I really am at quite a loss why so many people have for one cared about Big Ben bonging, and for two gotten angry about it not happening. It's parody as reality.

Sovereignty. We voted Leave to Take Back Control. If we can't even control when Big Ben bongs, what's the point?

A good question still awaiting a credible answer.

Global Britain which can't even get a clock to work. Brexit is going to be such a disaster we'll be in the Euro and Schengen within five years.

I can guarantee you it will be at least seven years, and probably more than ten.

When that glorious day comes we shall be magnanimous and not remind Leavers the role they played in making it happen.

Your grandchildren can be magnanimous about it, if they like. 15-20 years would be a highly optimistic estimate.

Depends how messy Brexit becomes. If it becomes very messy very quickly then we’ll have rejoined long before I retire.

It took the USA 13 years to reverse an idea as stupid and messy as prohibition. That reversal did not require the cooperation of an alliance of foreign countries.

They’ll be fine with it if we sign up to the Euro and Schengen.

they might be, but the first rule of politics is that everything takes longer than you think. We won't go back in until a major party adopts reentry as a policy and wins a GE and then a referendum on it. Think of that minimum timescales that requires.

Your analogy is all wrong.

Boris Johnson = Cromwell.

Like Cromwell, Boris Johnson tried to take back control from our unelected rulers but that was quickly reversed.

OldKingCole said:

IshmaelZ said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

IshmaelZ said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

rpjs said:

IanB2 said:

FF43 said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

LOL

The Brexiteers aren't happy with Boris.

https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1217919092058927107

I really am at quite a loss why so many people have for one cared about Big Ben bonging, and for two gotten angry about it not happening. It's parody as reality.

Sovereignty. We voted Leave to Take Back Control. If we can't even control when Big Ben bongs, what's the point?

A good question still awaiting a credible answer.

Global Britain which can't even get a clock to work. Brexit is going to be such a disaster we'll be in the Euro and Schengen within five years.

I can guarantee you it will be at least seven years, and probably more than ten.

When that glorious day comes we shall be magnanimous and not remind Leavers the role they played in making it happen.

Your grandchildren can be magnanimous about it, if they like. 15-20 years would be a highly optimistic estimate.

Depends how messy Brexit becomes. If it becomes very messy very quickly then we’ll have rejoined long before I retire.

It took the USA 13 years to reverse an idea as stupid and messy as prohibition. That reversal did not require the cooperation of an alliance of foreign countries.

Quite like the comparison with Prohibition. The Noble Experiment, for all the best reasons, which failed. Much more positive than my favourite comparison, the 17th Civil War.

Yes, it is very apt, apart from the fact that it bears no similarity whatsoever.

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Casino_Royale said:

rpjs said:

IanB2 said:

FF43 said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

LOL

The Brexiteers aren't happy with Boris.

https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1217919092058927107

I really am at quite a loss why so many people have for one cared about Big Ben bonging, and for two gotten angry about it not happening. It's parody as reality.

Sovereignty. We voted Leave to Take Back Control. If we can't even control when Big Ben bongs, what's the point?

A good question still awaiting a credible answer.

Global Britain which can't even get a clock to work. Brexit is going to be such a disaster we'll be in the Euro and Schengen within five years.

I can guarantee you it will be at least seven years, and probably more than ten.

As long as that? We could fix Big Ben twice in ten years (renovation started in 2017 and is scheduled to finish in 2021).

We couldn’t.

It’s my new project.

Casino_Royale said:

rpjs said:

IanB2 said:

FF43 said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

LOL

The Brexiteers aren't happy with Boris.

https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1217919092058927107

I really am at quite a loss why so many people have for one cared about Big Ben bonging, and for two gotten angry about it not happening. It's parody as reality.

Sovereignty. We voted Leave to Take Back Control. If we can't even control when Big Ben bongs, what's the point?

A good question still awaiting a credible answer.

Global Britain which can't even get a clock to work. Brexit is going to be such a disaster we'll be in the Euro and Schengen within five years.

I can guarantee you it will be at least seven years, and probably more than ten.

I think seven years is the minimum. This government isn't going to shift to Rejoin, so any replication requires a GE first, to be won by a pro European party, then a few years of accession talks.

I suspect that it will be longer, at least a wasted decade, and much of the damage done to the economy would be irreversible.

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

IshmaelZ said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

IshmaelZ said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

rpjs said:

IanB2 said:

FF43 said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

LOL

The Brexiteers aren't happy with Boris.

https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1217919092058927107

I really am at quite a loss why so many people have for one cared about Big Ben bonging, and for two gotten angry about it not happening. It's parody as reality.

Sovereignty. We voted Leave to Take Back Control. If we can't even control when Big Ben bongs, what's the point?

A good question still awaiting a credible answer.

Global Britain which can't even get a clock to work. Brexit is going to be such a disaster we'll be in the Euro and Schengen within five years.

I can guarantee you it will be at least seven years, and probably more than ten.

When that glorious day comes we shall be magnanimous and not remind Leavers the role they played in making it happen.

Your grandchildren can be magnanimous about it, if they like. 15-20 years would be a highly optimistic estimate.

Depends how messy Brexit becomes. If it becomes very messy very quickly then we’ll have rejoined long before I retire.

It took the USA 13 years to reverse an idea as stupid and messy as prohibition. That reversal did not require the cooperation of an alliance of foreign countries.

They’ll be fine with it if we sign up to the Euro and Schengen.

Pretty sure the French and Germans will not be AT ALL happy if we propose prohibition. Even if we sign up to Euro and Schengen.

Britain won't have prohibition until we become an Islamic State.

Foxy said:

Casino_Royale said:

rpjs said:

IanB2 said:

FF43 said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

LOL

The Brexiteers aren't happy with Boris.

https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1217919092058927107

I really am at quite a loss why so many people have for one cared about Big Ben bonging, and for two gotten angry about it not happening. It's parody as reality.

Sovereignty. We voted Leave to Take Back Control. If we can't even control when Big Ben bongs, what's the point?

A good question still awaiting a credible answer.

Global Britain which can't even get a clock to work. Brexit is going to be such a disaster we'll be in the Euro and Schengen within five years.

I can guarantee you it will be at least seven years, and probably more than ten.

I think seven years is the minimum. This government isn't going to shift to Rejoin, so any replication requires a GE first, to be won by a pro European party, then a few years of accession talks.

I suspect that it will be longer, at least a wasted decade, and much of the damage done to the economy would be irreversible.

Yup, that’s right. No-one cares about the economy though. It’s not why most Remainers are Remainers and nor why most Leavers are Leavers. It’s a values divide.

Anyway, I suspect Rejoin is going to be fighting the last war.

The bigger and much more interesting question is what the West looks like politically 20-30 years down the line and what associations are necessary to keep its influence.

Foxy said:

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

IshmaelZ said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

IshmaelZ said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

rpjs said:

IanB2 said:

FF43 said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

LOL

The Brexiteers aren't happy with Boris.

https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1217919092058927107

I really am at quite a loss why so many people have for one cared about Big Ben bonging, and for two gotten angry about it not happening. It's parody as reality.

Sovereignty. We voted Leave to Take Back Control. If we can't even control when Big Ben bongs, what's the point?

A good question still awaiting a credible answer.

Global Britain which can't even get a clock to work. Brexit is going to be such a disaster we'll be in the Euro and Schengen within five years.

I can guarantee you it will be at least seven years, and probably more than ten.

When that glorious day comes we shall be magnanimous and not remind Leavers the role they played in making it happen.

Your grandchildren can be magnanimous about it, if they like. 15-20 years would be a highly optimistic estimate.

Depends how messy Brexit becomes. If it becomes very messy very quickly then we’ll have rejoined long before I retire.

It took the USA 13 years to reverse an idea as stupid and messy as prohibition. That reversal did not require the cooperation of an alliance of foreign countries.

They’ll be fine with it if we sign up to the Euro and Schengen.

Pretty sure the French and Germans will not be AT ALL happy if we propose prohibition. Even if we sign up to Euro and Schengen.

Britain won't have prohibition until we become an Islamic State.

That will start slowly then come at a Daesh.

Casino_Royale said:

Foxy said:

Casino_Royale said:

rpjs said:

IanB2 said:

FF43 said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

LOL

The Brexiteers aren't happy with Boris.

https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1217919092058927107

I really am at quite a loss why so many people have for one cared about Big Ben bonging, and for two gotten angry about it not happening. It's parody as reality.

Sovereignty. We voted Leave to Take Back Control. If we can't even control when Big Ben bongs, what's the point?

A good question still awaiting a credible answer.

Global Britain which can't even get a clock to work. Brexit is going to be such a disaster we'll be in the Euro and Schengen within five years.

I can guarantee you it will be at least seven years, and probably more than ten.

I think seven years is the minimum. This government isn't going to shift to Rejoin, so any replication requires a GE first, to be won by a pro European party, then a few years of accession talks.

I suspect that it will be longer, at least a wasted decade, and much of the damage done to the economy would be irreversible.

Yup, that’s right. No-one cares about the economy though. It’s not why most Remainers are Remainers and nor why most Leavers are Leavers. It’s a values divide.

Anyway, I suspect Rejoin is going to be fighting the last war.

The bigger and much more interesting question is what the West looks like politically 20-30 years down the line and what associations are necessary to keep its influence.

Yes but do remember that in the GE, most people voted for parties opposed to the WDA, and the BMG poll in Jan showed 52% wanting to stay in the EU.

That national divide is not going away, and indeed as the implications of Brexit become manifest, and the benefits are shown to be illusory, a strong Rejoin movement is inevitable.

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

According to the Times the Queen is quite the hypocrite.

Prince Andrew performs no official duties but still gets armed protection but she won’t offer the same to the Sussexes.

Are you sure they’re for HIS protection? Rather than to protect shall we say, other persons of a certain age and type from him?

True.

TheScreamingEagles said:

IshmaelZ said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

IshmaelZ said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

IshmaelZ said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

rpjs said:

IanB2 said:

FF43 said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

LOL

The Brexiteers aren't happy with Boris.

https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1217919092058927107

I really am at quite a loss why so many people have for one cared about Big Ben bonging, and for two gotten angry about it not happening. It's parody as reality.

Sovereignty. We voted Leave to Take Back Control. If we can't even control when Big Ben bongs, what's the point?

A good question still awaiting a credible answer.

Global Britain which can't even get a clock to work. Brexit is going to be such a disaster we'll be in the Euro and Schengen within five years.

I can guarantee you it will be at least seven years, and probably more than ten.

When that glorious day comes we shall be magnanimous and not remind Leavers the role they played in making it happen.

Your grandchildren can be magnanimous about it, if they like. 15-20 years would be a highly optimistic estimate.

Depends how messy Brexit becomes. If it becomes very messy very quickly then we’ll have rejoined long before I retire.

It took the USA 13 years to reverse an idea as stupid and messy as prohibition. That reversal did not require the cooperation of an alliance of foreign countries.

They’ll be fine with it if we sign up to the Euro and Schengen.

they might be, but the first rule of politics is that everything takes longer than you think. We won't go back in until a major party adopts reentry as a policy and wins a GE and then a referendum on it. Think of that minimum timescales that requires.

Your analogy is all wrong.

Boris Johnson = Cromwell.

Like Cromwell, Boris Johnson tried to take back control from our unelected rulers but that was quickly reversed.

Cromwell was competent. Johnson has the Boris Bus, the Garden Bridge, Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe and just now the Northern Ireland Protocol that for the first time unites all of the daggers-drawn NI Ireland parties in total opposition. Johnson is an over-promoted Comical Ali.

I don't know what will happen with Brexit. I don't see the UK rejoining the EU any time soon, but am not convinced the current trajectory is workable.

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

According to the Times the Queen is quite the hypocrite.

Prince Andrew performs no official duties but still gets armed protection but she won’t offer the same to the Sussexes.

Are you sure they’re for HIS protection? Rather than to protect shall we say, other persons of a certain age and type from him?

spilt coffee.....

Foxy said:

Casino_Royale said:

Foxy said:

Casino_Royale said:

rpjs said:

IanB2 said:

FF43 said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

LOL

The Brexiteers aren't happy with Boris.

https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1217919092058927107

I really am at quite a loss why so many people have for one cared about Big Ben bonging, and for two gotten angry about it not happening. It's parody as reality.

Sovereignty. We voted Leave to Take Back Control. If we can't even control when Big Ben bongs, what's the point?

A good question still awaiting a credible answer.

Global Britain which can't even get a clock to work. Brexit is going to be such a disaster we'll be in the Euro and Schengen within five years.

I can guarantee you it will be at least seven years, and probably more than ten.

I think seven years is the minimum. This government isn't going to shift to Rejoin, so any replication requires a GE first, to be won by a pro European party, then a few years of accession talks.

I suspect that it will be longer, at least a wasted decade, and much of the damage done to the economy would be irreversible.

Yup, that’s right. No-one cares about the economy though. It’s not why most Remainers are Remainers and nor why most Leavers are Leavers. It’s a values divide.

Anyway, I suspect Rejoin is going to be fighting the last war.

The bigger and much more interesting question is what the West looks like politically 20-30 years down the line and what associations are necessary to keep its influence.

Yes but do remember that in the GE, most people voted for parties opposed to the WDA, and the BMG poll in Jan showed 52% wanting to stay in the EU.

That national divide is not going away, and indeed as the implications of Brexit become manifest, and the benefits are shown to be illusory, a strong Rejoin movement is inevitable.

It really is going away. It will mostly exsanguinate on 1st February 2020 - its remaining life-force ebbing further over the next five years.

The next election will not be a "rejoin" election. Save for a few fringe candidates, trying to save their deposits. Is that you, the LibDems?

Foxy said:

Casino_Royale said:

Foxy said:

Casino_Royale said:

rpjs said:

IanB2 said:

FF43 said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

LOL

The Brexiteers aren't happy with Boris.

https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1217919092058927107

I really am at quite a loss why so many people have for one cared about Big Ben bonging, and for two gotten angry about it not happening. It's parody as reality.

Sovereignty. We voted Leave to Take Back Control. If we can't even control when Big Ben bongs, what's the point?

A good question still awaiting a credible answer.

Global Britain which can't even get a clock to work. Brexit is going to be such a disaster we'll be in the Euro and Schengen within five years.

I can guarantee you it will be at least seven years, and probably more than ten.

I think seven years is the minimum. This government isn't going to shift to Rejoin, so any replication requires a GE first, to be won by a pro European party, then a few years of accession talks.

I suspect that it will be longer, at least a wasted decade, and much of the damage done to the economy would be irreversible.

Yup, that’s right. No-one cares about the economy though. It’s not why most Remainers are Remainers and nor why most Leavers are Leavers. It’s a values divide.

Anyway, I suspect Rejoin is going to be fighting the last war.

The bigger and much more interesting question is what the West looks like politically 20-30 years down the line and what associations are necessary to keep its influence.

Yes but do remember that in the GE, most people voted for parties opposed to the WDA, and the BMG poll in Jan showed 52% wanting to stay in the EU.

That national divide is not going away, and indeed as the implications of Brexit become manifest, and the benefits are shown to be illusory, a strong Rejoin movement is inevitable.

Nothing in politics is inevitable.


That works both ways of course.

MarqueeMark said:

Foxy said:

Casino_Royale said:

Foxy said:

Casino_Royale said:

rpjs said:

IanB2 said:

FF43 said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

LOL

The Brexiteers aren't happy with Boris.

https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1217919092058927107

I really am at quite a loss why so many people have for one cared about Big Ben bonging, and for two gotten angry about it not happening. It's parody as reality.

Sovereignty. We voted Leave to Take Back Control. If we can't even control when Big Ben bongs, what's the point?

A good question still awaiting a credible answer.

Global Britain which can't even get a clock to work. Brexit is going to be such a disaster we'll be in the Euro and Schengen within five years.

I can guarantee you it will be at least seven years, and probably more than ten.

I think seven years is the minimum. This government isn't going to shift to Rejoin, so any replication requires a GE first, to be won by a pro European party, then a few years of accession talks.

I suspect that it will be longer, at least a wasted decade, and much of the damage done to the economy would be irreversible.

Yup, that’s right. No-one cares about the economy though. It’s not why most Remainers are Remainers and nor why most Leavers are Leavers. It’s a values divide.

Anyway, I suspect Rejoin is going to be fighting the last war.

The bigger and much more interesting question is what the West looks like politically 20-30 years down the line and what associations are necessary to keep its influence.

Yes but do remember that in the GE, most people voted for parties opposed to the WDA, and the BMG poll in Jan showed 52% wanting to stay in the EU.

That national divide is not going away, and indeed as the implications of Brexit become manifest, and the benefits are shown to be illusory, a strong Rejoin movement is inevitable.

It really is going away. It will mostly exsanguinate on 1st February 2020 - its remaining life-force ebbing further over the next five years.

The next election will not be a "rejoin" election. Save for a few fringe candidates, trying to save their deposits. Is that you, the LibDems?

You are naive in the extreme. The divide will evolve, but because of the divisive politics of the last couple of years and the singular unwillingness of this government to do anything beyond rhetoric to heal the wounds, it will fester and persist.

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

According to the Times the Queen is quite the hypocrite.

Prince Andrew performs no official duties but still gets armed protection but she won’t offer the same to the Sussexes.

Are you sure they’re for HIS protection? Rather than to protect shall we say, other persons of a certain age and type from him?

The Times is also just as likely to make something up/rely on a dodgy “source” as much as any of media outlet these days. I’m not sure “according to the Times” is exactly a conclusive starter to a sentence these days. It’s less than a week since they were called out for writing rubbish about William and Harry’s relationship.

alex_ said:

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

According to the Times the Queen is quite the hypocrite.

Prince Andrew performs no official duties but still gets armed protection but she won’t offer the same to the Sussexes.

Are you sure they’re for HIS protection? Rather than to protect shall we say, other persons of a certain age and type from him?

The Times is also just as likely to make something up/rely on a dodgy “source” as much as any of media outlet these days. I’m not sure “according to the Times” is exactly a conclusive starter to a sentence these days. It’s less than a week since they were called out for writing rubbish about William and Harry’s relationship.

Rupert Murdoch has always been very anti-Monarchy. Not sure why (obviously up to him).

Foxy said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FF43 said:

Cromwell was competent. Johnson has the Boris Bus, the Garden Bridge, Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe and just now the Northern Ireland Protocol that for the first time unites all of the daggers-drawn NI Ireland parties in total opposition. Johnson is an over-promoted Comical Ali.

I don't know what will happen with Brexit. I don't see the UK rejoining the EU any time soon, but am not convinced the current trajectory is workable.

If we do rejoin it might be in baby steps.

Join the single market then rejoin the rest in stages...

Yes, that is the route. First it needs regime change, so a GE, unless the Tory party shifts back to the pro EU position of just 5 years ago.

Except rejoin might require the Euro, an EU army etc which was not the case before as we would not have the opt outs we had then. So hard to see us going further than rejoining the single market and maintaining public support

TheScreamingEagles said:

According to the Times the Queen is quite the hypocrite.

Prince Andrew performs no official duties but still gets armed protection but she won’t offer the same to the Sussexes.

Prince Andrew is actually losing his round the clock police protection, the same should apply to the Sussexes if they refuse to perform royal duties or fund it themselves

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10751866/prince-andrew-faces-losing-round-the-clock-police-protection-after-epstein-scandal/

Reading remainers' posts here feels like an intrusion into private grief. When you put the subject back on the table and draw attention to it, I suppose it's inevitable the old mental pathways reactivate and the daggers get drawn again. Hardcore remainers will never accept Brexit, the best hope for their own sake is that they just don't think about it very often.

MarqueeMark said:

It really is going away. It will mostly exsanguinate on 1st February 2020 - its remaining life-force ebbing further over the next five years.

The next election will not be a "rejoin" election. Save for a few fringe candidates, trying to save their deposits. Is that you, the LibDems?

It might go away. My comment is that Leavers appear to have very little interest in making their project work. They have had years to come up with a plan but haven't done so. Johnson's attitude is "move on, nothing to see here". But the context is, like it or not, the European Union is the only show in town in Europe, the UK is heavily integrated into the European system, doesn't have an obvious alternative (that missing plan). There are major constitutional stresses because neither Scotland nor Ireland wants to leave the EU.

Maybe something will be worked out ad hoc.

CarlottaVance said:

What is it with Nats & flags.....

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1217945835696218112?s=20

Can we archive that front page please, the Spanish government might be interested to see the Nat house journal slagging them off