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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Conservative intake of 2019 (Part 2 of 2) – the new MPs to

SystemSystem Posts: 12,170
edited January 2020 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Conservative intake of 2019 (Part 2 of 2) – the new MPs to keep an eye on

Last time we looked at the new Conservative intake in aggregate.  This time we’re picking out a few who look set to make an impact, some for the right reasons and some for the wrong reasons. Many new MPs have scrubbed their social media squeaky clean. This might well be smart when looking to get elected. It is going to make it harder for them to stand out from the crowd.  As Oscar Wilde said, the only thing worse than being talked about is not being talked about.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,210
    FPT: @Stocky Your book is actually the best of all.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491
    Good post, and great to see Aaron in there.

    Amongst over 100 new Tory MPs it’s a bit of a thin list though, isn’t it?
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    Pulpstar said:

    FPT: @Stocky Your book is actually the best of all.

    It`s helped massively by bets I made three years ago on RLB at up to 43/1. It`s given me room to back others in mitigation.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    ralphmalph said:

    FF43 said:

    There was a massive contradiction behind Brexit. A close working relationship with our neighbours, as a non-member, means doing what the EU tells us with no say. People voted Leave to "take control", but this would result in the UK being less in control than ever. Unlike May, Johnson doesn't try to square the circle. He has resolved Brexit in favour of not having a working relationship with the EU and our neighbours. It wasn't what I was expecting and it may not be sustainable, in which case we will need to decide on active participation or doing what we are told.

    You have not understood that the world has moved on from these colonial tactics for doing what the so called big boy says. The EU standing in the world is close to zero because of these tactics, it has annoyed Turkey so much that they are turning to Putin, The Balkans will be next, the Swiss are just about to vote no again to FoM and they have not learned their lesson and are so trying the same with the UK.
    Trump is doing the same.

    Who is winning China by offering, maybe in words only win-win joint co-operation deals.

    The EU is being incredibly dumb forcing the UK away from a friendly joint cooperation deal.
    I don't think it's either accurate or useful to describe to describe the European Union as colonial. It is a membership organisation and a consortium of countries. Countries are free to join on meeting the criteria of membership and being accepted by the other members and free to leave, as we are seeing. Such an organisation will use its leverage to benefit its members. It aims to maximise the value of membership and deny those benefits to non-members. No different, say, from a trade union.

    The EU has no good solution for a country that wants a close relationship without the obligations of membership, which might also be in the interests of of its members at some level. Largely it's the nature of the beast. The consortium runs a system. If non-members want access to the system it will be under consortium rules.

    The Johnson government has decided it can do without access. It is very concerned however that people should not understand the implications of its decision.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Stocky said:

    Pulpstar said:

    FPT: @Stocky Your book is actually the best of all.

    It`s helped massively by bets I made three years ago on RLB at up to 43/1. It`s given me room to back others in mitigation.
    Grrr, I'm so jealous. My book is a pretty much unmitigated disaster, weighed down by bets I made two or three years ago on people who now aren't in the running or even in the Labour Party, compounded by a major error laying Keir Starmer a few months ago on the basis that he was too sensible and too male to be chosen by the current party. I am modestly green on RLB and Nandy but not by enough to compensate for the Starmer-shaped hole in my book.

    So if Survation are reading this, a few more polls showing Starmer losing would be much appreciated.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I'm all green on the Labour party leadership market. Lisa Nandy would be my star win.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    AlastairMeeks said:

    I'm all green on the Labour party leadership market. Lisa Nandy would be my star win.

    I'm all red apart from Lisa Nandy. This was based on bets place three to four years ago.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491
    The one thing that might get me back to all-green is the ridiculously short price that RLB has collapsed to off the back of that Labour List poll.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    Danny Kruger is interesting . Prisoner support charities aren't a standard Tory party interest.
  • BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,884
    Casino_Royale said:

    Good post, and great to see Aaron in there.

    Amongst over 100 new Tory MPs it’s a bit of a thin list though, isn’t it?

    subset of a subset, no?

    Of the relative outsiders, we’re going to be keeping an eye on the following:

  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    And it's official, after 26 years NAFTA no longer exists at least in name:

    https://twitter.com/burgessev/status/1217853591354060802
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    Trudy Harrison is one MP I would also keep an eye on.

    Elected in 2017 so not a new MP but has just become Boris’s PPS. That will give her a useful insight into and connections with the Parliamentary Party. An MP for a Northern constituency - Copeland (with roots in it not parachuted in) - who overturned a Labour majority in a by-election and has since increased it at the subsequent two General Elections. Her previous work has been in community regeneration which may well be useful given the Tories’ stated focus on this.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    To pick up on a point @tlg86 made earlier on, Natalie Elphicke is at least as qualified as her husband to be an MP.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,729
    edited January 2020
    AlastairMeeks said:

    To pick up on a point @tlg86 made earlier on, Natalie Elphicke is at least as qualified as her husband to be an MP.

    err... what qualifications do you need to be an MP.. perhaps they SHOULD have to pass an exam.....
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Bath LD Wera Hobhouse is threatening to stand as Leader of Lib Dems.

    https://twitter.com/itvwestcountry/status/1217854025145749504
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    squareroot2 said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    To pick up on a point @tlg86 made earlier on, Natalie Elphicke is at least as qualified as her husband to be an MP.

    err... what qualifications do you need to be an MP.. perhaps they SHOULD have to pass an exam.....
    I'm all in favour of that. MPs are very keen to impose minimum standards on others but remarkably reluctant to consider any for themselves.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,767
    MikeSmithson said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    I'm all green on the Labour party leadership market. Lisa Nandy would be my star win.

    I'm all red apart from Lisa Nandy. This was based on bets place three to four years ago.
    All green except Starmer. Some of my bets from 2 or 3 years ago seem hilarious now e.g. Ed Balls.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    In a classic case of an iffy bet which might win, I've got an old one from 2018 on the Next Labour Leader being Male (6/4). Not awful odds at the time, but given the pressure Labour have found for a female leader it looks like I'm rather lucky Starmer is around.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,229
    Fascinating. Politics is a people business after all. Gareth Davies is the one that catches my eye. The Cons are underweight on economics so he should be able to shine simply by being himself. Must not shine too much, though, or they will come down on him like a ton of bricks.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491
    BannedinnParis said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Good post, and great to see Aaron in there.

    Amongst over 100 new Tory MPs it’s a bit of a thin list though, isn’t it?

    subset of a subset, no?

    Of the relative outsiders, we’re going to be keeping an eye on the following:

    Perhaps I misread it.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,229
    Stocky said:

    It`s helped massively by bets I made three years ago on RLB at up to 43/1. It`s given me room to back others in mitigation.

    That is a nice book.

    Not tempted to spend £20 blatting your Phillips liability just in case?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,767
    https://twitter.com/PeoplesMomentum/status/1217822037831491584

    Totally back to the 70s video.

    She rails against the idea that factory workers were told that their kids would have new jobs in the growing service economy. It never happened apparently.

    She's the daughter of a docker who grew up to be, erm, a solicitor.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/PeoplesMomentum/status/1217822037831491584

    Totally back to the 70s video.

    She rails against the idea that factory workers were told that their kids would have new jobs in the growing service economy. It never happened apparently.

    She's the daughter of a docker who grew up to be, erm, a solicitor.

    Still, they did manage to get a picture of her smiling, which is no mean feat.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,767
    dr_spyn said:

    Bath LD Wera Hobhouse is threatening to stand as Leader of Lib Dems.

    https://twitter.com/itvwestcountry/status/1217854025145749504

    Why don't all those still with a seat stand? :lol:
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,767
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/PeoplesMomentum/status/1217822037831491584

    Totally back to the 70s video.

    She rails against the idea that factory workers were told that their kids would have new jobs in the growing service economy. It never happened apparently.

    She's the daughter of a docker who grew up to be, erm, a solicitor.

    Still, they did manage to get a picture of her smiling, which is no mean feat.
    Probably taken just after she had been reminded that Blair only won three elections.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    dr_spyn said:

    Bath LD Wera Hobhouse is threatening to stand as Leader of Lib Dems.

    https://twitter.com/itvwestcountry/status/1217854025145749504

    Thanks for that, i`ve had a nibble at 54/1.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153
    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/PeoplesMomentum/status/1217822037831491584

    Totally back to the 70s video.

    She rails against the idea that factory workers were told that their kids would have new jobs in the growing service economy. It never happened apparently.

    She's the daughter of a docker who grew up to be, erm, a solicitor.

    If shes the only one who will return power to the people etc, what will they do if another wins? That isn't a small doctrinal disagreement its saying all the others dont believe in a fundamental point.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,229
    I am all green on the 5 for Labour leader.

    Best is 250 Thornberry. Worst is 133 RLB.

    Solid. Unspectacular. A real Starmer of a book.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153
    Stocky said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Bath LD Wera Hobhouse is threatening to stand as Leader of Lib Dems.

    https://twitter.com/itvwestcountry/status/1217854025145749504

    Thanks for that, i`ve had a nibble at 54/1.
    A nibble on Hobhouse, sounds like having a biscuit.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,934
    Have we missed a trick here? Five new MPs had their photos in the manifesto.

    Luke Evans, Bosworth
    Darren Henry, Broxtowe
    Neil Hudson, Penrith and The Border
    Jonathan Gullis, Stoke-on-Trent North
    James Davies, Vale of Clwyd

    I'd keep an eye on Darren Henry, who was an RAF Squadron Leader and Logistics Officer. I'm assuming Logistics means something more than holding the key to the Quartermaster's stores. He's used to running things and getting on with people (though maybe not having to persuade them).

    Looking at their pre-MP jobs, that's two doctors, a vet, a teacher and the RAF chap who happens to be Black. Maybe that is another reason they were chosen.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    AlastairMeeks said:

    squareroot2 said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    To pick up on a point @tlg86 made earlier on, Natalie Elphicke is at least as qualified as her husband to be an MP.

    err... what qualifications do you need to be an MP.. perhaps they SHOULD have to pass an exam.....
    I'm all in favour of that. MPs are very keen to impose minimum standards on others but remarkably reluctant to consider any for themselves.
    What test would you require them to pass, as a matter of interest?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,037
    rottenborough said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Bath LD Wera Hobhouse is threatening to stand as Leader of Lib Dems.

    https://twitter.com/itvwestcountry/status/1217854025145749504

    Why don't all those still with a seat stand? :lol:
    Instead of a ballot they could decide it by a game of musical chairs.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,678
    edited January 2020
    Cyclefree said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    squareroot2 said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    To pick up on a point @tlg86 made earlier on, Natalie Elphicke is at least as qualified as her husband to be an MP.

    err... what qualifications do you need to be an MP.. perhaps they SHOULD have to pass an exam.....
    I'm all in favour of that. MPs are very keen to impose minimum standards on others but remarkably reluctant to consider any for themselves.
    What test would you require them to pass, as a matter of interest?
    1) Do you think pineapple is an acceptable topping on a pizza?

    2) Is Die Hard a Christmas film?

    If their answers are No, then they are fit to be MPs.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Have we missed a trick here? Five new MPs had their photos in the manifesto.

    Luke Evans, Bosworth
    Darren Henry, Broxtowe
    Neil Hudson, Penrith and The Border
    Jonathan Gullis, Stoke-on-Trent North
    James Davies, Vale of Clwyd

    I'd keep an eye on Darren Henry, who was an RAF Squadron Leader and Logistics Officer. I'm assuming Logistics means something more than holding the key to the Quartermaster's stores. He's used to running things and getting on with people (though maybe not having to persuade them).

    Looking at their pre-MP jobs, that's two doctors, a vet, a teacher and the RAF chap who happens to be Black. Maybe that is another reason they were chosen.

    Darren Henry did lose out in selection for the 2020 pcc elections, interestingly. Hes probably happy about that now.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,037
    So what about the new vanguard of Tories from the North East?

    None of them going places?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153
    Cyclefree said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    squareroot2 said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    To pick up on a point @tlg86 made earlier on, Natalie Elphicke is at least as qualified as her husband to be an MP.

    err... what qualifications do you need to be an MP.. perhaps they SHOULD have to pass an exam.....
    I'm all in favour of that. MPs are very keen to impose minimum standards on others but remarkably reluctant to consider any for themselves.
    What test would you require them to pass, as a matter of interest?
    In all seriousness, the uncertainty of that point, combined with self interest in there not being standards, is presumably why there is not one.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/PeoplesMomentum/status/1217822037831491584

    Totally back to the 70s video.

    She rails against the idea that factory workers were told that their kids would have new jobs in the growing service economy. It never happened apparently.

    She's the daughter of a docker who grew up to be, erm, a solicitor.

    Still, they did manage to get a picture of her smiling, which is no mean feat.
    She looks insincere and unhappy even when she does ‘smile’. The shape of her mouth doesn’t help.

    Nandy really is miles better. As is Philips. Even Rayner.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Cyclefree said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    squareroot2 said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    To pick up on a point @tlg86 made earlier on, Natalie Elphicke is at least as qualified as her husband to be an MP.

    err... what qualifications do you need to be an MP.. perhaps they SHOULD have to pass an exam.....
    I'm all in favour of that. MPs are very keen to impose minimum standards on others but remarkably reluctant to consider any for themselves.
    What test would you require them to pass, as a matter of interest?
    I think they all passed the test, of being able to say 'We need to get Brexit done!' at every opportunity.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491
    Here’s the thing: I don’t meet anyone who’s rooting for RLB, or read about them on here or elsewhere.

    They must exist, so where are they?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,934
    edited January 2020
    Casino_Royale said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/PeoplesMomentum/status/1217822037831491584

    Totally back to the 70s video.

    She rails against the idea that factory workers were told that their kids would have new jobs in the growing service economy. It never happened apparently.

    She's the daughter of a docker who grew up to be, erm, a solicitor.

    Still, they did manage to get a picture of her smiling, which is no mean feat.
    She looks insincere and unhappy even when she does ‘smile’. The shape of her mouth doesn’t help.

    Nandy really is miles better. As is Philips. Even Rayner.
    Of course she looks insincere. She's a lawyer. She worked for Pinsent Masons. She's probably still got her company-issued Ribena suit.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,678
    Casino_Royale said:

    Here’s the thing: I don’t meet anyone who’s rooting for RLB, or read about them on here or elsewhere.

    They must exist, so where are they?

    IIRC even PB's Corbynites (BJO and Nick Palmer for example) aren't as enthusiastic for RLB as they were for Corbyn.

    I think she wasn't even John's first preference so I wonder if her support is limited to the social media loudmouths.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,767
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Here’s the thing: I don’t meet anyone who’s rooting for RLB, or read about them on here or elsewhere.

    They must exist, so where are they?

    IIRC even PB's Corbynites (BJO and Nick Palmer for example) aren't as enthusiastic for RLB as they were for Corbyn.

    I think she wasn't even John's first preference so I wonder if her support is limited to the social media loudmouths.
    The big Q is whether Momentum's leadership can persuade all its members to back their call for RBL.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,678
    On topic, here's another one to watch.

    https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1217834337355345930
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,767
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    On topic, here's another one to watch.

    https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1217834337355345930

    Yep. She was highlighted by a Daily Mail piece the other day. One to watch.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Here’s the thing: I don’t meet anyone who’s rooting for RLB, or read about them on here or elsewhere.

    They must exist, so where are they?

    IIRC even PB's Corbynites (BJO and Nick Palmer for example) aren't as enthusiastic for RLB as they were for Corbyn.

    I think she wasn't even John's first preference so I wonder if her support is limited to the social media loudmouths.
    BJO says she is Corbyn minus the likeability (sic)!!
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    rottenborough said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    On topic, here's another one to watch.

    https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1217834337355345930

    Yep. She was highlighted by a Daily Mail piece the other day. One to watch.
    She's certainly more agreeable to watch than most!
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,533
    Apols if posted, but the Momentum poll is here, with Rayner only just scraping home (because of support for Burgon, I assume):

    Question 1 of 2: Should Momentum follow the NCG recommendation to endorse
    Rebecca Long-Bailey as the next leader of the Labour Party?
    Results: For: 4,995 (70.42%) Against: 2,098 (29.58%)

    Question 2 of 2: Should Momentum follow the NCG recommendation to endorse
    Angela Rayner as the next deputy leader of the Labour Party?
    Results: For: 3,684 (52.15%) Against: 3,380 (47.85%)

    Note the small total number - nowhere near the claimed membership, but then a number of members (2 out of 3 that I know) didn't get the question sent to them.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153
    NickPalmer said:


    Note the small total number - nowhere near the claimed membership, but then a number of members (2 out of 3 that I know) didn't get the question sent to them.

    That's genuinely strange - what's the bloody point of a leading question to your members if you cannot even manage to send it round to them all?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,678
    https://twitter.com/travis_view/status/1217819908790075393
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Harold Wilson did so much to remind the voters that there would be no return to the policies of Lloyd George, Baldwin and Ramsey Mac.

    Time Long-Bailey started to look forwards not backwards, or is that too Blairite for her?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    rottenborough said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Here’s the thing: I don’t meet anyone who’s rooting for RLB, or read about them on here or elsewhere.

    They must exist, so where are they?

    IIRC even PB's Corbynites (BJO and Nick Palmer for example) aren't as enthusiastic for RLB as they were for Corbyn.

    I think she wasn't even John's first preference so I wonder if her support is limited to the social media loudmouths.
    The big Q is whether Momentum's leadership can persuade all its members to back their call for RBL.

    Even then it only accounts for 10% of the membership apparently (I was surprised at that, but I take it as read on PB). Big John Owls is a Nandy backer. As he is clearly on the far left of the party, one only wonders if she can't win his vote, whose can she win?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,934
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    On topic, here's another one to watch.

    https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1217834337355345930

    Careful now. Wikipedia says Dehenna Davison worked in a pizza shop. Have you checked her Hawaiian position?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,678
    edited January 2020
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    On topic, here's another one to watch.

    https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1217834337355345930

    Careful now. Wikipedia says Dehenna Davison worked in a pizza shop. Have you checked her Hawaiian position?
    I was prepared to overlook David Cameron's preference for Hawaiian pizzas so why not her?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,678
    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/1217868236504666113
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    edited January 2020
    NickPalmer said:

    Apols if posted, but the Momentum poll is here, with Rayner only just scraping home (because of support for Burgon, I assume):

    Question 1 of 2: Should Momentum follow the NCG recommendation to endorse
    Rebecca Long-Bailey as the next leader of the Labour Party?
    Results: For: 4,995 (70.42%) Against: 2,098 (29.58%)

    Question 2 of 2: Should Momentum follow the NCG recommendation to endorse
    Angela Rayner as the next deputy leader of the Labour Party?
    Results: For: 3,684 (52.15%) Against: 3,380 (47.85%)

    Note the small total number - nowhere near the claimed membership, but then a number of members (2 out of 3 that I know) didn't get the question sent to them.

    If Becky can only carry 70% of Momentumites in a push poll, I would politely suggest she is probably toast.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    kle4 said:

    NickPalmer said:


    Note the small total number - nowhere near the claimed membership, but then a number of members (2 out of 3 that I know) didn't get the question sent to them.

    That's genuinely strange - what's the bloody point of a leading question to your members if you cannot even manage to send it round to them all?
    Perhaps they carefully screened members for having sound views before sending out the questionnaire.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/1217868236504666113

    I didn't actually realise that they would be able to vote. Interesting.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    kle4 said:

    NickPalmer said:


    Note the small total number - nowhere near the claimed membership, but then a number of members (2 out of 3 that I know) didn't get the question sent to them.

    That's genuinely strange - what's the bloody point of a leading question to your members if you cannot even manage to send it round to them all?
    Perhaps they carefully screened members for having sound views before sending out the questionnaire.
    Ha! Quite.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    rottenborough said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    On topic, here's another one to watch.

    https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1217834337355345930

    Yep. She was highlighted by a Daily Mail piece the other day. One to watch.
    She's certainly more agreeable to watch than most!
    She is pretty certainly.

    But that trouser suit is just awful.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,678
    Anabobazina said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/1217868236504666113

    I didn't actually realise that they would be able to vote. Interesting.
    They don't, but if they end up staying here, they may well go down the route to applying for the vote in GEs, not just locals.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    Cyclefree said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    rottenborough said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    On topic, here's another one to watch.

    https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1217834337355345930

    Yep. She was highlighted by a Daily Mail piece the other day. One to watch.
    She's certainly more agreeable to watch than most!
    She is pretty certainly.

    But that trouser suit is just awful.
    Apparently her husband is 35 years her senior.

    https://www.hulldailymail.co.uk/news/hull-east-yorkshire-news/dehenna-davison-tory-councillor-student-3644180
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,037
    So how many members does Momentum have?

    Are they really relevant in an election where hundreds of thousands can cast a ballot?

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,037
    Oh, BTW I have heard that CLP nomination ballots will be conducted using AV.

    I see this as good news for the 'not RLB' candidates.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,934
    Anabobazina said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    rottenborough said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    On topic, here's another one to watch.

    https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1217834337355345930

    Yep. She was highlighted by a Daily Mail piece the other day. One to watch.
    She's certainly more agreeable to watch than most!
    She is pretty certainly.

    But that trouser suit is just awful.
    Apparently her husband is 35 years her senior.

    https://www.hulldailymail.co.uk/news/hull-east-yorkshire-news/dehenna-davison-tory-councillor-student-3644180
    Wikipedia thinks the Times thinks they separated.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    edited January 2020
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    kle4 said:

    NickPalmer said:


    Note the small total number - nowhere near the claimed membership, but then a number of members (2 out of 3 that I know) didn't get the question sent to them.

    That's genuinely strange - what's the bloody point of a leading question to your members if you cannot even manage to send it round to them all?
    Perhaps they carefully screened members for having sound views before sending out the questionnaire.
    Which would have reduced the number of letters to zero, surely. Joining Momentum is by definition an extreme view (unlike a union)

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,466
    kle4 said:

    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/PeoplesMomentum/status/1217822037831491584

    Totally back to the 70s video.

    She rails against the idea that factory workers were told that their kids would have new jobs in the growing service economy. It never happened apparently.

    She's the daughter of a docker who grew up to be, erm, a solicitor.

    If shes the only one who will return power to the people etc, what will they do if another wins? That isn't a small doctrinal disagreement its saying all the others dont believe in a fundamental point.
    More to the point, does she or does she not have a hyphen in her name. Sometimes she does, sometimes she doesn’t.
    I think we should be told!
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,596
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Cyclefree said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    squareroot2 said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    To pick up on a point @tlg86 made earlier on, Natalie Elphicke is at least as qualified as her husband to be an MP.

    err... what qualifications do you need to be an MP.. perhaps they SHOULD have to pass an exam.....
    I'm all in favour of that. MPs are very keen to impose minimum standards on others but remarkably reluctant to consider any for themselves.
    What test would you require them to pass, as a matter of interest?
    I think they all passed the test, of being able to say 'We need to get Brexit done!' at every opportunity.
    I'm tempted to suggest "cycling proficiency" - it demands some basic control and awareness of others.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    NUM nominate Rayner. She is at 2 with Union (so 5% threshold reached). She only needs a Socialist Society now to get on the ballot paper. Not that I think she would have trouble to get 33 CLPs (she already got 2 last night)

    Bakers and Allied Food Workers Union nominate Burgon

    SERA (Socialist Environment and Resources Association) nominated Starmer
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    OldKingCole said:

    kle4 said:

    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/PeoplesMomentum/status/1217822037831491584

    Totally back to the 70s video.

    She rails against the idea that factory workers were told that their kids would have new jobs in the growing service economy. It never happened apparently.

    She's the daughter of a docker who grew up to be, erm, a solicitor.

    If shes the only one who will return power to the people etc, what will they do if another wins? That isn't a small doctrinal disagreement its saying all the others dont believe in a fundamental point.
    More to the point, does she or does she not have a hyphen in her name. Sometimes she does, sometimes she doesn’t.
    I think we should be told!
    “If you take hyphens seriously you will surely go mad.”
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,678
    https://twitter.com/mocent0/status/1217871083245797377
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,037
    AndreaParma_82 said:

    NUM nominate Rayner. She is at 2 with Union (so 5% threshold reached). She only needs a Socialist Society now to get on the ballot paper. Not that I think she would have trouble to get 33 CLPs (she already got 2 last night)

    Bakers and Allied Food Workers Union nominate Burgon

    SERA (Socialist Environment and Resources Association) nominated Starmer

    Presumably the Bakers nominated pie-eater Watson last time. And then he betrayed them!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148
    Yes, have campaigned for James Davies in the past, he is a GP and Dementia specialist and one to watch
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    OldKingCole said:

    kle4 said:

    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/PeoplesMomentum/status/1217822037831491584

    Totally back to the 70s video.

    She rails against the idea that factory workers were told that their kids would have new jobs in the growing service economy. It never happened apparently.

    She's the daughter of a docker who grew up to be, erm, a solicitor.

    If shes the only one who will return power to the people etc, what will they do if another wins? That isn't a small doctrinal disagreement its saying all the others dont believe in a fundamental point.
    More to the point, does she or does she not have a hyphen in her name. Sometimes she does, sometimes she doesn’t.
    I think we should be told!
    We have been

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/rebecca-long-bailey-hyphen-labour-leadership-corbyn-keir-starmer-a9280661.html
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Have we missed a trick here? Five new MPs had their photos in the manifesto.

    Luke Evans, Bosworth
    Darren Henry, Broxtowe
    Neil Hudson, Penrith and The Border
    Jonathan Gullis, Stoke-on-Trent North
    James Davies, Vale of Clwyd

    I'd keep an eye on Darren Henry, who was an RAF Squadron Leader and Logistics Officer. I'm assuming Logistics means something more than holding the key to the Quartermaster's stores. He's used to running things and getting on with people (though maybe not having to persuade them).

    Looking at their pre-MP jobs, that's two doctors, a vet, a teacher and the RAF chap who happens to be Black. Maybe that is another reason they were chosen.

    Neil Hudson's parents live in Epping and he has helped us in local elections so I know him a bit too, he was a vet and Edinburgh University lecturer before election
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,678
    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1217871721543454721
    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1217872846069948417
    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1217873619512168448
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    What on earth is the Socialist Environment and Resources Association? Do they have vicious feuds with other Environment and Resources Associations?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,678
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    What on earth is the Socialist Environment and Resources Association? Do they have vicious feuds with other Environment and Resources Associations?

    Aren't they the lot who say we can end the housing crisis by giving everyone a piece of land, and the money to build a house on it?
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    What on earth is the Socialist Environment and Resources Association? Do they have vicious feuds with other Environment and Resources Associations?

    http://www.sera.org.uk

    It is basically one of the Socialist Socialists everybody forget they exist until their nomination is needed in the leadership contest. I mean, those...https://labour.org.uk/people/societies/

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    What on earth is the Socialist Environment and Resources Association? Do they have vicious feuds with other Environment and Resources Associations?

    Aren't they the lot who say we can end the housing crisis by giving everyone a piece of land, and the money to build a house on it?
    If so I fear they'll be disappointed by Sir Keir.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1217840373466304512?s=20
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148
    https://twitter.com/BernieSanders/status/1217863111472025600?s=20
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148
    https://twitter.com/timothy_stanley/status/1217856328409939970?s=20
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148
    https://twitter.com/10DowningStreet/status/1217811618756775942?s=20
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,678
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    What on earth is the Socialist Environment and Resources Association? Do they have vicious feuds with other Environment and Resources Associations?

    Aren't they the lot who say we can end the housing crisis by giving everyone a piece of land, and the money to build a house on it?
    If so I fear they'll be disappointed by Sir Keir.
    I think they also want to charge a 100% inheritance tax on all houses.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    What on earth is the Socialist Environment and Resources Association? Do they have vicious feuds with other Environment and Resources Associations?

    Not a great acronym for an activist group, it hints at a kind of acceptant fatalism.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    What on earth is the Socialist Environment and Resources Association? Do they have vicious feuds with other Environment and Resources Associations?

    Aren't they the lot who say we can end the housing crisis by giving everyone a piece of land, and the money to build a house on it?
    If so I fear they'll be disappointed by Sir Keir.
    I think they also want to charge a 100% inheritance tax on all houses.
    With all houses ultimately to become social housing
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,880
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    On topic, here's another one to watch.

    https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1217834337355345930

    She looks OK 😊
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,880
    IshmaelZ said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    What on earth is the Socialist Environment and Resources Association? Do they have vicious feuds with other Environment and Resources Associations?

    Not a great acronym for an activist group, it hints at a kind of acceptant fatalism.
    Que sera sera?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    What on earth is the Socialist Environment and Resources Association? Do they have vicious feuds with other Environment and Resources Associations?

    Not a great acronym for an activist group, it hints at a kind of acceptant fatalism.
    Que sera sera?
    Bingo.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,037
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    What on earth is the Socialist Environment and Resources Association? Do they have vicious feuds with other Environment and Resources Associations?

    Not a great acronym for an activist group, it hints at a kind of acceptant fatalism.
    Que sera sera?
    How about forming a Socialist Railway Cranks Society, affiliating to Labour and getting a nomination?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,934
    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/10DowningStreet/status/1217811618756775942?s=20

    It is a bit unfortunate that Boris's new money man has the same name as the Project Fear guy.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    SandyRentool said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    What on earth is the Socialist Environment and Resources Association? Do they have vicious feuds with other Environment and Resources Associations?

    Not a great acronym for an activist group, it hints at a kind of acceptant fatalism.
    Que sera sera?
    How about forming a Socialist Railway Cranks Society, affiliating to Labour and getting a nomination?
    Associated Railway Socialist Employees.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    The people who said Corbyn, Leave, Trump, Boris and the Tories couldn’t win can’t have RLB...
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,483
    malcolmg said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Returning to the previous thread - there is no way New Zealand will agree a union with the UK. The Kiwis like being at the end of the Earth and they know free movement means a lot more low-skilled Poms arriving. It would also mess up their arrangements with Australia. No doubt tongues were very firmly in cheeks when the suggestion was made. But for anyone who was inclined to take it seriously: don’t.

    I agree. I do look forward to a much closer trading relationship though. It caused genuine poverty that New Zealand has never fully recovered from when we joined the EU.
    Yes shipping goods 11,000 miles will be a great way to improve our trade , we really need those sheep and apples.
    New Zealand is a wonderful pristine place that unsurprisingly produces wonderfully healthy (in every sense) livestock and food. I don't really see your point to be honest.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    SandyRentool said:

    Oh, BTW I have heard that CLP nomination ballots will be conducted using AV.

    I see this as good news for the 'not RLB' candidates.

    There’s been two declarations so far as far as I’m aware.

    Richmond Park and Bosworth.

    Both went for SKS.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,218
    speedy2 said:

    And it's official, after 26 years NAFTA no longer exists at least in name:

    https://twitter.com/burgessev/status/1217853591354060802

    USMCA is NAFTA plus...

    ...greater local content restrictions in autos (including a requirement that a certain portion of cars are built with labour component paid more than a certain amount)*

    and

    ...new rules preventing discrimination against LBGT workers, that the Canadians snuck in at the last minute, even though it annoyed the hell out of a bunch of Republicans in the House

    * This was not an unreasonable change. The original NAFTA was less strict that some earlier trade agreements around Rules of Origin, and some (mostly Canadian) auto parts companies were doing little more than importing parts from China, putting them in a box in Ottawa, and then sending them across the border
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/10DowningStreet/status/1217811618756775942?s=20

    It is a bit unfortunate that Boris's new money man has the same name as the Project Fear guy.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZXRfnIfFYFI
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,228
    Cyclefree said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    rottenborough said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    On topic, here's another one to watch.

    https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1217834337355345930

    Yep. She was highlighted by a Daily Mail piece the other day. One to watch.
    She's certainly more agreeable to watch than most!
    She is pretty certainly.

    But that trouser suit is just awful.
    If the Tories had you for sartorial advice, they would be truly dangerous...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,767
    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1217840373466304512?s=20

    Did they poll Macbeth?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,229
    edited January 2020
    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/BernieSanders/status/1217863111472025600?s=20

    Now this is the sort of lurid populism I can get 100% behind. ✊

    Keep it coming Mr H.
This discussion has been closed.