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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It was dislike of Corbyn not Brexit that was the main driver o
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It was dislike of Corbyn not Brexit that was the main driver of LAB’s GE2019 losses
If the Opinium survey on the day of the General Election is accurate then the departure of Corbyn, as will happen on April 4th with the new Labour leader, should have a significant impact on the party’s recovery.
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Thoughts?
I don;t think people are that politically engaged as a whole, and that's a good thing. They just want things to be good, and to work, and to feel like things are fair. They don't really care about the delivery mechanics.
I think he'll win the first round, and then easily pick up transfers.
You need a monetary system to measure and efficiently allocate and trade resources in any economy: it’s a key measure that allows an economy to be advanced and its peoples wealthy.
In theory you wouldn’t if you had totally unlimited and unconstrained access of everyone to such resources, with complete fungibility, although I suspect you’d get all sorts of social problems and challenges with that too. One big effect would be that it’d be a form of anarchism.
There were far fewer Labour defections in London and the South, hence Labour lose 0 net seats in the former and only 1 in the latter. The main problem there was Labour were not able to advance because Tory Remainers still refused to vote for Corbyn, London also saw Remainers defect to the LDs as Labour were not Remain enough as the chart suggests
*Yes, I know where Cœur de Lion spent most of his life.
Patrick Stewart explicitly did it because he wanted to make a point about his vision of the future of humanity, and he’s the executive producer, so I always expected it to be about as political as it gets.
The original Star Treks (particularly the Next Generation) were safe, cozy, family friendly, interesting and inclusive, though. Something no-one really got too offended by and provided food for thought. They were also fun too.
If this is full-on luvvie and preachy then there is a risk it might alienate across the political divides but I doubt Stewart or his writers care too much about that.
Imposing modern day borders on the past is the sort of historical revisionist nonsense that leads people to claim Alexander was Greek.
Don't expect him to reach evens but he may hit 1.7 or so.
Two guest characters competing to win a race. The man's an incompetent who needs to be saved by the Doctor. He's ungrateful and selfish. The woman's a desperate but talented individual who's trying to win the prize to save her family from poverty.
The next episodes clashed with F1, after which I didn't bother returning (I'd not watched it since the early episodes of Capaldi's time. He's a great casting choice but the writing was not great).
The finding is the problem was Corbyn not Corbynism. This should distress centrists and gladden Corbynites. Corbyn the man is soon to leave the stage so if, as centrists and surveys claim, voters were repelled by him personally then job done and there is no need to adopt centrist policies.
Personally, I am sceptical of these sort of surveys but that is another story.
Since Oh Jeremy Corbyn walked on water in 2017 but sank in 2019, we should ask what changed in two years. CCHQ micro-targetted shitposting?
A tapestry of polling evidence showing that the nation was unconvinced by Brexit (or Boris Johnson) but still more unconvinced by Jeremy Corbyn is not going to persuade them out of their comfort blanket beliefs.
FFS. Don’t watch it if you don’t like it.
Particularly In The Pale Moonlight when a Starfleet Captain faked evidence (and covered up a murder) to ensure the Romulans would join the war.
He also cited Tacking Into The Wind where Sisko pretty much told Worf to assassinate The Klingon Chancellor compared to Picard's reaction in Reunion when he nearly kicked Worf out of Starfleet for killing the likely next Klingon Chancellor.
He's always wanted to do stuff like that.
Garak was a good addition to the mix.
Mr. Slackbladder, the Dalek Parliament (Matt Smith, I think) was one of the weirdest bits. Not PC or anything just bloody odd. Do they have a Dalek Chancellor of the Exchequer who takes Treasury Questions from the Dalek Shadow Chancellor? Do they have by-elections on Skaro?
Do the Dalek Liberal Democrats prefer solar-powered death rays?
The latest series isn't that. It's cynical about human nature and the opposite of the guiding premise.
2019 - the labour policies were overly generous and included things that had flaws that were immediately obvious. Nationalising Railways fair enough, nationalising broadband utterly insane.
In 2017 Corbyn was a meme and therefore there was fun and exciting bandwagon to jump on. It meant the baggage could be overlooked. See: Glastonbury.
In 2019 the meme was past its shelf-life. It was no longer exciting or ‘fun’ to vote for Corbyn. It was merely a reluctant anti-Boris vote.
Macedon was culturally Hellenistic but when Demosthenes condemned the people in a speech he said they weren't even civilized enough to make decent slaves, using barbaros rather than xenos (the former meaning non-Greek, the latter meaning Greek but from a different city).
Mr. Eagles, it was from Anjou, which was part of Angevin territory.
https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1216998158577913857?s=20
Theresa May turned out to be totally awful at campaigning, and so Corbyn didn't look so bad. Brexit, plus the collapse of the Lib Dems, made it a straight choice of Tory v Labour, and so he ended up with a high vote share.
In 2019, people had seen the best of Corbyn, but also seen a lot more of the antisemitism, his comments about Salisbury, etc., and weren't going to give him the benefit of the doubt again.
As for Corbynism, if it's the 2019 manifesto, then it's a mess, and I don't really think it exists. I'd be surprised if anyone could create a coherent platform based on the last four years of Labour.
It has always seemed to me that the right to compete at Olympia is a pretty unanswerable argument.
Greece was a collection of city-states. Macedon was the territory, the kingdom. Everyone knows Sparta, and Athens. Very few can name Pella, the Macedonian capital. Like Epirus, it was adjacent to Greece and heavily influenced by Greece, but that doesn't make it the same place.
On a betting front. I had a bit on 1917 Best Picture at 4.1 yesterday. It went out to 4.3 and is now around 3.5. It really is an incredible film and I'm still thinking about it 2 days later and wish to see it again. It is a flawed masterpiece but considerably better than the market fave 'Once Upon A Time In Hollywood' which is a no more than a good movie with 2 or 3 standout scenes. Are the Academy going to give a 1960s nostalgia trip Best Movie for a 3rd year in a row, and also to a film that has now been out months? I'm not sure.
1917 has only been out worldwide for 4 days and will gather a head of steam through word of mouth alone so expect betting crossover, and I could even see it being odds on before the Ceremony. I can't second guess the Academy but Parasite could be the only legit threat to 1917 as something of a wildcard. Though I expect the concept of a foreign language movie winning might have come a few years too soon.
Then they can advocate the same policies under a new leader (RLB) as an election winning strategy.
Regardless of that, whichever way you look at it it I suggest that those expressing hostility to Corbyn would be less than convinced if he were replaced with an accolyte on record as giving him 10 out of 10, would it? That would just make matters even worse by rubbing salt in the wound.
In terms of internal Labour politics, one thing that has changed is that many Labour members came out of their bubble by listening first hand to hostile responses from a household they expected to be supportive when knocking on their door.
If Labour detoxify their leadership, the problems caused by Johnson and Cummings and the way they have thumbed their nose at 48% of the electorate may well come home to roost.
The Birmingham MP, who is due to campaign in Glasgow today, said the SNP’s “abject failings” on health and education were a "threat to opportunity and equality" for working people in Scotland.
https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/18157697.jess-phillips-become-labour-leader-party-will-100-per-cent-committed-union/
I remember DS9 when it first came out and it wasn’t shy of courting controversy at the time.
It isn’t a function of the presence of money, or not.
PS: Another liar peddling rubbish re NHS and education as well.
https://www.parliament.uk/business/news/2019/december/big-ben-and-new-years-eve-2019/
https://twitter.com/jessphillips/status/1216755169473503233?s=20
What was the result?
I'll go first. Con majority of 50.
(plus those pylons are definitely wrong. #justsaying)
Clinton 48%
Trump 46%
I am surprised they haven't yet commissioned an equivalent cringer like New Labour's Millennium Dome exhibition. They should get the Queen to open it and sing a cross between Rule Britannia and Auld Lang Syne while holding hands with Bozo and Rees-Mogg, or better still Megan Markle ! The leaders of the world could be invited so they can all laugh at us. It is going to be great!
Woe unto you, scribes and Pharisees, hypocrites! for ye pay tithe of mint and anise and cummin, and have omitted the weightier matters of the law, judgment, mercy, and faith: these ought ye to have done, and not to leave the other undone...
Can’t they confine themselves to the BBC and leave it at that....?
CCHQ on the other hand, did learn from Theresa May and systematically shot all Labour's 2017 foxes and made it appear that Boris was meeting ordinary voters even if on closer examination it was just a series of tightly-controlled photo-ops.
There is also the suspicion of anti-Corbyn below-the-radar shitposting by CCHQ but not much evidence so far (not that I've looked but I hope this will be explored in any forthcoming "how Boris won" books). We do know there was a late blitz of CCHQ social media activity and that CCHQ had engaged NZ specialists in dark campaigns.
Anyone with any sanity would have resigned responsibility on the spot even if they didn't quit the party.
I think it's rather clever.
1. The Tories obviously. They will try to do the same with whoever wins the Labour leadership. They'll be already trawling through Starmer's record as DPP etc but it will be less fertile ground than Corbyn's. It comes with the territory.
2. The Blairites within the Labour party who wanted to get rid of Corbyn and were prepared to sabotage him and their party's electoral prospects to achieve their aims. They've succeeded. Hopefully they'll accept Starmer but if Long-Bailey gets the post, I suspect the fight will go on.
3. The Israeli lobby who aimed to de-legitimise criticism of Israeli government policy towards the Palestinians as anti-semitism. (Not denying there is genuine anti-semitism in the Labour party. Unfortunately there are racists everywhere). They have totally succeeded with all five candidates accepting the 10 demands.
Three separate agendas that combined with lethal effect on Corbyn's political ambitions.
Hopefully Starmer will only face the Tories. He'll do well. The Labour 2017 policies were popular and Starmer is going to keep them as a base. That, combined with the crossover later this year between satisfaction with Johnson and Starmer, suggests that Labour next Government is a good bet (even though it will probably be a minority de-toxified government).