Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Bernie Sanders, moves into the favourites slot for the Democra

2»

Comments

  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    edited January 2020

    Management of ailing business;

    1) Blame failing business model for which you are responsible, or

    2) Blame external factor for which you are not responsible (but has somehow, mysteriously not driven your rivals to the wall..)
    Many of FlyBe’s rivals *have* been driven to the wall by the same factor
  • Good morning, everyone.

    Hope Sanders doesn't get it.

    Donald Trump very much hopes he does. Sanders is an effective ally to Trump as Corbyn was to Johnson.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449

    Keir Starmer in favour of Proportional Representation by the Single Transferable Vote?
    “So many people vote and it doesn’t count, and we can’t go on like that - because progressive politics requires people’s votes to actually count. So I would want to look at this. The only caveat I’ve got is that I also genuinely believe that you need a representative in each area who is there to represent the people in that area and to act on their behalf."

    That’s encouraging. Hopefully one day we will be free of the dead hand of FPTP
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Oh God, I feel sick. I have laid Bernie in recent days like a sailor on shore leave.

    Welcome to my Starmer hell world.

    Fortunately for America I only laid berie down to zero.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,741

    Many of FlyBe’s rivals *have* been driven to the wall by the same factor
    The one time I recently caught a FlyBe flight was it's Air France branded flight to Paris from Manchester - the words never again spring to mind.

    I suspect what is killing FlyBe is Easyjet taking sufficient trade on the routes used to remove the profitability. And not much can fix that.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,333
    Forgot to mention... one of the few decisions that Sub Lt (Acting) Mordaunt took during her brief and inglorious time in office was to change the commitment on Type 31 frigates from "in service" in 2023 to "in the water". This moves the whole frigate replacement project 18-24 months to the right and makes the T23 LIFEX fiasco much more serious than it would otherwise have been.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    edited January 2020

    Many of FlyBe’s rivals *have* been driven to the wall by the same factor
    Which?

    Monarch was a Charter Airline that tried to transition to a LoCo but failed. Thomas Cook business model was built on selling holidays in the High Street. The Internet says "hello". Cello Aviation was a 2 (old) plane charter operation. BMI died in 2012. None of these were direct FlyBe competitors.

    FlyBe's problems:

    35 jet Embraer order
    IT systems problems
    Loganair
    RyanAir/EasyJet muscling in on popular routes it establishes.
    £ depreciation (Brexit related - but faced by all its competitors)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,572

    That’s encouraging. Hopefully one day we will be free of the dead hand of FPTP
    The seductive lure of a majority stuffs it from ever being delivered though.

    Ask Tony Blair and his 177 seat majority. Maybe if he'd had a majority of 7 instead, after 18 years of Tory rule, things would have been different.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,572

    10 years of Conservative hegemony and still blaming Gordon Brown? According to Wikipedia, the contract for the new carriers was announced on 25 July 2007, when Brown had been prime minister for less than a month.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Queen_Elizabeth-class_aircraft_carrier


    5 years of that "hegemony" were Coalition.

    Oi, LibDems, why didn't you stop it?
  • eek said:

    Gordon Brown was in the Treasury before then - he could have stopped them if he wanted to.
    I'm not sure even in the days of Blair's sofa government that the Chancellor was running the MoD. But if he was, presumably he'd have been aware the Royal Navy had two other carriers in service (or it did until the Conservatives scrapped them both).
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    I'm not sure even in the days of Blair's sofa government that the Chancellor was running the MoD. But if he was, presumably he'd have been aware the Royal Navy had two other carriers in service (or it did until the Conservatives scrapped them both).
    The carrier project appeared to be a Scottish-job creation exercise at heart so I’d be startled if Mr Brown took a hands off role.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,109
    edited January 2020
    rcs1000 said:

    OK...

    So, the average age of a Presidential nominee in the last fifty years is 60.

    The average age of a Presidential candidate facing an incumbent is... 60.

    Presidential candidates facing incumbents were:
    1972   McGovern     59
    1976 Carter 52
    1980 Reagan 69
    1984 Mondale 56
    1992 Clinton 46
    1996 Dole 73
    2004 Kerry 61
    2012 Romney 65
    There is no evidence that facing an incumbent leads to (on average) older nominees.
    Since 1996 there certainly is, all those candidates were over 60, so my original proposition going back to 1992 stands absolutely 100% correct.

    If you exclude candidates who faced presidents after 8 or more years of their party in the White House, e.g. Clinton, that proposition also holds going backing over the last 50 years
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449

    5 years of that "hegemony" were Coalition.

    Oi, LibDems, why didn't you stop it?
    Because , as you well know, by then the contract would have cost more to cancel than to go ahead.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,109
    edited January 2020
    Foxy said:

    There was this interesting case for selling the carriers yesterday, so the money could go to the Army. I am not convinced, but interested in your thoughts.

    https://twitter.com/pinstripedline/status/1216458478157541376?s=19

    We will still need them for task forces to the Falklands etc if needed
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    Just re-Reading @AlastairMeeks ’ 2019 predictions article from this time last year - wrong on the 2nd referendum and 19 days out on there not being a 2019 GE - but otherwise pretty much spot on. Well done sir.

    https://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/12/26/with-just-five-days-to-go-the-pb-alastair-meeks-predictions-for-2019/
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,109
    edited January 2020
    Effectively zero change from the general election, bar Labour a bit down, shows what a waste of time post general election voting intention polling is unless it is a hypothetical poll comparing leadership candidates
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    Finally.

    Labour VI holding up a little better than I expected. Fwiw BMG was consistently about 3 points under on the Conservatives and 3 over on the LDs at the GE.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,884

    Management of ailing business;

    1) Blame failing business model for which you are responsible, or

    2) Blame external factor for which you are not responsible (but has somehow, mysteriously not driven your rivals to the wall..)
    Flybe had a raft of issues, only one or maybe two were Brexit related. Was Brexit the straw that broke the camel's back or was it going to fail anyway?

    We will see a lot of this. Brexit doesn't bring any business benefits (that would be a ridiculous claim), but its many downsides will affect businesses differently and to different extents.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,572
    Boris's approval up 11%.

    Labour on 29% would punch through some more of that Red Wall.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449

    Boris's approval up 11%.

    Labour on 29% would punch through some more of that Red Wall.
    Why am I not surprised that Boris’s appproval increases when he goes into hiding?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,388
    I must be one of the few people who’s in favour of the carriers.

    They’re crucial to global power projection and in opening up strategic options for the UK, particularly for unknown unknown threats.

    Given it takes about 15 years from drawing board to commissioned in-service flight wings, you can’t just magic them up again when you need them either.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,485
    Mr. Royale, instead of blowing money on foreign aid we could spend it on various better things, such as bolstering the navy.
  • Keir Starmer in favour of Proportional Representation by the Single Transferable Vote?
    “So many people vote and it doesn’t count, and we can’t go on like that - because progressive politics requires people’s votes to actually count. So I would want to look at this. The only caveat I’ve got is that I also genuinely believe that you need a representative in each area who is there to represent the people in that area and to act on their behalf."

    About time someone was. Our electoral system stinks and needs to be changed
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823

    I must be one of the few people who’s in favour of the carriers.

    They’re crucial to global power projection and in opening up strategic options for the UK, particularly for unknown unknown threats.

    Given it takes about 15 years from drawing board to commissioned in-service flight wings, you can’t just magic them up again when you need them either.

    You can only project it as part of a carrier group which includes plenty of air and sea defence. Two carriers alone will do very little and the issue is they have sucked the air out of the room for everything else.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180

    About time someone was. Our electoral system stinks and needs to be changed
    Note his get out at the end if his party gets a majority.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    MaxPB said:

    You can only project it as part of a carrier group which includes plenty of air and sea defence. Two carriers alone will do very little and the issue is they have sucked the air out of the room for everything else.
    Funny how no one can agree what the everything else should be though.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,103
    matt said:

    The carrier project appeared to be a Scottish-job creation exercise at heart so I’d be startled if Mr Brown took a hands off role.
    Yes building all the parts in England before welding them together in Scotland was real job creation for Scotland , you half witted cretinous moron.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422

    Just re-Reading @AlastairMeeks ’ 2019 predictions article from this time last year - wrong on the 2nd referendum and 19 days out on there not being a 2019 GE - but otherwise pretty much spot on. Well done sir.

    https://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/12/26/with-just-five-days-to-go-the-pb-alastair-meeks-predictions-for-2019/

    Up to a point, Lord Copper:

    1) Whatever happens, Brexit is going to be disfiguring public debate at the end of next yearTwo Party Politics re-established (bar Scotland) and UKIP a busted flush. Brexit bill passed with barely a murmur. We've seen off the extremes many European countries are still grappling with. Megexit dominating the papers. I'd put that down as "no" - more "business as usual" than "disfigured".

    2) Britain will not leave the EU on 29 March 2019
    Yes.

    3) There will be a fresh referendum
    No.

    4) If there is a fresh referendum, it will be close
    No. See 3.


    5) There won’t be a general election in 2019
    No.


    6) Neither of the current main party leaders will be in their current role in a year’s time
    No. One still is.


    7) British politics will look very different this time next year
    Yes. Tory government with 80 seat majority. Although I'm not sure that's what Mr Meeks (or anyone) anticipated.
  • matt said:

    The carrier project appeared to be a Scottish-job creation exercise at heart so I’d be startled if Mr Brown took a hands off role.
    Even if you are right, that would only be a question of where the carriers were built, not whether. The original plans to build new carriers date back to the Major government.

  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    felix said:

    Note his get out at the end if his party gets a majority.
    If it lures in the gullible, mission achieved.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,572

    Why am I not surprised that Boris’s appproval increases when he goes into hiding?
    Alternatively, he hasn't actually implemented that Eating of the First Born policy his opponents said he would.....

    Yet.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    It is also worth reflecting that the harsh Brexit that now lies ahead is the result of monumental political misjudgments — by Theresa May, the former prime minister, the Labour Party, the Liberal Democrats, Tory rebels and the second referendum campaign. The European Council, too, is partly to blame. EU leaders could have helped secured a softer Brexit if they had refused to participate in the charade of Brexit extensions.

    The reason a narrow trade deal is now the most likely way forward is that all the alternatives have been eliminated.

    https://www.ft.com/content/f819f23a-33c4-11ea-9703-eea0cae3f0de
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,333

    I must be one of the few people who’s in favour of the carriers.

    They’re crucial to global power projection and in opening up strategic options for the UK, particularly for unknown unknown threats.

    Given it takes about 15 years from drawing board to commissioned in-service flight wings, you can’t just magic them up again when you need them either.

    We should have either:

    Done 3 or 4 of the world's best helicopter carriers (something like the JSDF Hyugas) with Seahawk Romeos and upgunned the T45s for littoral strike.

    or

    Stuck at it with an Anglo-French 3 carrier fleet. Now we've got a 50% capable air wing that will (notionally thought probably not really) be available 100% of the time. The French have a 100% capable air wing that's available 50% of the time.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,388
    MaxPB said:

    You can only project it as part of a carrier group which includes plenty of air and sea defence. Two carriers alone will do very little and the issue is they have sucked the air out of the room for everything else.
    The issue is the military has been denied of funds wholesale. That’s why everything is being funded on a shoestring.

    A carrier battle group escorted by a frigate/sub/destroyer/RFA support is sufficient against all but the most powerful enemies, when we’d be in a broader coalition anyway.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,741
    malcolmg said:

    Yes building all the parts in England before welding them together in Scotland was real job creation for Scotland , you half witted cretinous moron.
    I believe there are still shipyards on the Clyde including some building ferries despite the best efforts of your Government.

    Were it not for the 2 aircraft carrier orders I do not believe that would be the case.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,884

    It is also worth reflecting that the harsh Brexit that now lies ahead is the result of monumental political misjudgments — by Theresa May, the former prime minister, the Labour Party, the Liberal Democrats, Tory rebels and the second referendum campaign. The European Council, too, is partly to blame. EU leaders could have helped secured a softer Brexit if they had refused to participate in the charade of Brexit extensions.

    The reason a narrow trade deal is now the most likely way forward is that all the alternatives have been eliminated.

    https://www.ft.com/content/f819f23a-33c4-11ea-9703-eea0cae3f0de

    It's a very muddled argument. Munchau appears to think divergence brings more benefits than convergence to the UK, while blaming a "narrow trade deal" (which surely is a good thing in that case) on everyone except those actually pushing for it.
  • The issue is the military has been denied of funds wholesale. That’s why everything is being funded on a shoestring.

    A carrier battle group escorted by a frigate/sub/destroyer/RFA support is sufficient against all but the most powerful enemies, when we’d be in a broader coalition anyway.
    If (and this is a big if) Labour had had any sense, they'd have attacked the Conservatives over defence cuts and our incredible shrinking armed forces.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,867
    First VI of the new Parliament. Wonder how that will compare with the final polls in 2023/2024?
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,639



    If (and this is a big if) Labour had had any sense, they'd have attacked the Conservatives over defence cuts and our incredible shrinking armed forces.

    I reckon Labour should announce a policy of increasing the pay of the armed forces. I think the public would be shocked when they found out how little ordinary soldiers get paid.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,884
    FF43 said:

    It's a very muddled argument. Munchau appears to think divergence brings more benefits than convergence to the UK, while blaming a "narrow trade deal" (which surely is a good thing in that case) on everyone except those actually pushing for it.
    Incidentally, Munchau seems to think we don't need a car industry because a diverged UK will do much better at AI than an over regulated EU. That's a very big assumption. I can think of a reason why the opposite will apply, which can be summed up in a single word, data.

    It may not have escaped people's notice that data equivalence is outside the scope of the potential 2020 agreement. The EU will screw the UK on data privacy and because other countries like Japan will also be covered by EU data agreements and obligations, they will also be excluded from any buccaneering UK AI. China doesn't allow its data outside the country and we can expect the US to get more protectionist too.

    Boris Johnson would have fun telling the ex workers of Sunderland that they are surplus to requirements thanks to all that lovely AI work going through.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,364

    That’s encouraging. Hopefully one day we will be free of the dead hand of FPTP
    He'll probably do a Trudeau and quietly shelve the proposal when he gets into power. :)
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,818
    edited January 2020
    Thank you, but hard to get engaged at this juncture. Ditto Brexit (over) and Corbyn (over). The big themes that have driven this site since I joined a couple of years ago are now fish and chips. It's a new world and we need new themes. The mill cannot turn without a fresh helping of grist. There is much to choose from - and of course we don't have to choose since we can multi task - but if I had to pick one thing to track it would be this -

    Will the Tories deliver real and significant economic advantage for their new WWC voters in the North or will it turn out to be just another piece of complete and utter "Boris" ??

    I will be watching this carefully over the next few days and weeks and months and years. No doubt we all will be.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,580

    The seductive lure of a majority stuffs it from ever being delivered though.

    Ask Tony Blair and his 177 seat majority. Maybe if he'd had a majority of 7 instead, after 18 years of Tory rule, things would have been different.
    If the majority had only been 7 we’d have seen Paddy Ashdown as a Cabinet Minister.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,012
    kinabalu said:

    Thank you, but hard to get engaged at this juncture. Ditto Brexit (over) and Corbyn (over). The big themes that have driven this site since I joined a couple of years ago are now fish and chips. It's a new world and we need new themes. The mill cannot turn without a fresh helping of grist. There is much to choose from - and of course we don't have to choose since we can multi task - but if I had to pick one thing to track it would be this -

    Will the Tories deliver real and significant economic advantage for their new WWC voters in the North or will it turn out to be just another piece of complete and utter "Boris" ??

    I will be watching this carefully over the next few days and weeks and months and years. No doubt we all will be.
    What is 44 29...thats a bigger majority isnt it.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    If the majority had only been 7 we’d have seen Paddy Ashdown as a Cabinet Minister.
    As I understand it he was offered NI after the election which he declined putting party before self.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    kinabalu said:

    Thank you, but hard to get engaged at this juncture. Ditto Brexit (over) and Corbyn (over). The big themes that have driven this site since I joined a couple of years ago are now fish and chips. It's a new world and we need new themes. The mill cannot turn without a fresh helping of grist. There is much to choose from - and of course we don't have to choose since we can multi task - but if I had to pick one thing to track it would be this -

    Will the Tories deliver real and significant economic advantage for their new WWC voters in the North or will it turn out to be just another piece of complete and utter "Boris" ??

    I will be watching this carefully over the next few days and weeks and months and years. No doubt we all will be.
    https://xkcd.com/500/
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,569
    nichomar said:

    As I understand it he was offered NI after the election which he declined putting party before self.
    First time I've heard that. Don't recall it being in Ashdown's diaries.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235

    What is 44 29...thats a bigger majority isnt it.
    Labour's soft 3% "I'll vote for them because there's a general election on and we need to stop the Tories and/or stop Brexit vote" has disappeared back into the ether for now.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,333

    The issue is the military has been denied of funds wholesale. That’s why everything is being funded on a shoestring.

    A carrier battle group escorted by a frigate/sub/destroyer/RFA support is sufficient against all but the most powerful enemies, when we’d be in a broader coalition anyway.
    Boris isn't going to be pulling billions out of his fat pussy for defence. One, his grungey FSB handler fucking hates defence spending and, two, he needs the money to build bus stations, lidos and contemporary dance spaces in leaver shit holes like Consett.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    First time I've heard that. Don't recall it being in Ashdown's diaries.
    It wasn’t and I i won’t speculate where I ‘think’ it came from and could be complete bollocks
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,818

    What is 44 29...thats a bigger majority isnt it.

    I make it a majority of 150. But there is no point running the numbers, this is my point. It's boring and unimportant. Our focus must shift to the big question of this new era - is Boris Johnson a true convert to the policy of a serious redistribution of wealth and opportunity in favour of working class communities in post industrial regions?

    I intend to devote most of my time to answering this in a manner that is both rigorous and fair. The answer I expect to end up with is a resounding "not on your nelly" but I won't be assuming anything. It is just possible that Johnson is about to take everything that we think we know about the Conservative Party, and about him, and debunk it.
  • Next Irish GE - Most seats - best prices

    Fianna Fáil 4/5
    Fine Gael EVS
    Sinn Féin 50/1
    Greens 125/1
    Labour 500/1

    Yes, it's on a knife edge.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,012
    edited January 2020
    kinabalu said:

    I make it a majority of 150. But there is no point running the numbers, this is my point. It's boring and unimportant. Our focus must shift to the big question of this new era - is Boris Johnson a true convert to the policy of a serious redistribution of wealth and opportunity in favour of working class communities in post industrial regions?

    I intend to devote most of my time to answering this in a manner that is both rigorous and fair. The answer I expect to end up with is a resounding "not on your nelly" but I won't be assuming anything. It is just possible that Johnson is about to take everything that we think we know about the Conservative Party, and about him, and debunk it.
    I just thought it odd the Tories could have a bigger lead after corbyn had decided to step down.. perhaps the alternatives are even worse!!!!
  • Boris has sold NI Army veterans down the river according to the Sun.

    BORIS Johnson has sparked a backlash from Tory MPs after it emerged the smallprint of his deal to restore power-sharing in Northern Ireland risks opening up new Troubles probes into thousands of veterans.

    The Government’s New Decade, New Approach agreement that persuaded warring Northern Irish parties to restore the Stormont executive for the first time in three years promised to deal address “legacy issues” within 100 days.

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10723746/boris-johnson-power-share-deal-northern-ireland-veterans/

    (aside: is smallprint one word now?)

    All people who are guilty should be jailed, only decent thing Boris has done.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,818
    edited January 2020
    HYUFD said:
    Can Nandy knock Long Bailey into 3rd and pick up enough 2nd and 3rd prefs to overhaul Starmer?

    It's a narrow path but it's a path.

    FWIW I think the current pricing of the 3 serious contenders is about right.
  • Not really.
    It does depend on which country your going to.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    The replies to this are horrendous. I don't know why this still surprises me. I just can't get my head around the fact there are SO MANY people with these views.
    https://twitter.com/BoardofDeputies/status/1216409365646839813
  • TheGreenMachineTheGreenMachine Posts: 1,097
    edited January 2020

    Wasn't this thread about the failure of several airlines, not the high street?
    In Belfast, it was mainly the primark fire that caused closures.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,343
    The contrasting headlines when they were pregnant that Kate & Meghan got does make it seem like the press disliked MM from the start. I wouldn't say it was evidence of racism though, they just may not have liked her for other reasons. I am surprised people think it is, I didn't even know she was black!

    It is easy to see MM as the baddie, and she could be, but it could also be that the Royal family are nasty pieces of work and, as an outsider, she was able to say to Harry 'there is a better life out there than being controlled by this institution'. Funny that people can be so dogmatic in their assertions

    I take it everyone has seen the beach nudies?!
  • eek said:

    The one time I recently caught a FlyBe flight was it's Air France branded flight to Paris from Manchester - the words never again spring to mind.

    I suspect what is killing FlyBe is Easyjet taking sufficient trade on the routes used to remove the profitability. And not much can fix that.
    That goes without saying, cheaper airlines will always get more passengers.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    Speaking of which Labour could do worse than elect Harry leader; the son of an army officer, military man himself, yet ticks all the woke boxes.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,741

    That goes without saying, cheaper airlines will always get more passengers.
    That actually wasn't what I'm saying FlyBe was at times cheaper than Easyjet on the old Newcastle Belfast route.

    It's more the story of the third cafe being opened in an area. Regardless of the price charged, it takes just enough trade away from the other 2 cafe's for none of them to be profitable. Increased supply can result in everyone losing money.
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    Regarding Brexit and the aftermath, what I'd really like to see is some realism from potential labour leaders. Rather than objecting against everything the tories propose, I think it would be helpful if both parties try to work together and actively start to heal the rifts that the 'lost 3 years' have brought.

    This doesn't mean stopping forensic scrutiny but do it in the light of trying to bring the country back together again. Boris, with his one nation statements would be wrong to reject proposals made in this light. It may even make Labour a tad more electable!
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,221
    edited January 2020
    FF43 said:

    Incidentally, Munchau seems to think we don't need a car industry because a diverged UK will do much better at AI than an over regulated EU. That's a very big assumption. I can think of a reason why the opposite will apply, which can be summed up in a single word, data.

    It may not have escaped people's notice that data equivalence is outside the scope of the potential 2020 agreement. The EU will screw the UK on data privacy and because other countries like Japan will also be covered by EU data agreements and obligations, they will also be excluded from any buccaneering UK AI. China doesn't allow its data outside the country and we can expect the US to get more protectionist too.

    Boris Johnson would have fun telling the ex workers of Sunderland that they are surplus to requirements thanks to all that lovely AI work going through.
    The other problems with relying on AI to underpin the economy are
    1) competitors with deep pockets can probably duplicate British successes
    2) or even more simply just buy the company, like Google snapped up DeepMind
    3) so far AI has been a licence to burn money

    Point 3 is important because unless British venture capitalists (right!) or the government write some very large cheques, AI UK is going nowhere. AI's commercial successes to date are those annoying chatbots that pop up on ecommerce web sites and, erm, that's it.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,818

    I just thought it odd the Tories could have a bigger lead after corbyn had decided to step down.. perhaps the alternatives are even worse!!!!

    Not so odd. My view on the GE is that Johnson won it far more than Corbyn lost it. People voted positively for Brexit and "Boris" - and particularly the combination of those two unholy constructs. They voted for a "Boris Brexit". Or more accurately they voted to "Get Brexit Done" - by "Boris". Go back and replace Corbyn with AN Other for that GE in those circumstances against this Tory leader and you're still looking at a healthy Con majority. Perhaps not 80 but still a good one.

    But anyway, that's all water under the bridge. I should not be allowing you or others to drag me back into these stale topics. Is Johnson going to deliver some One Nation Socialism for the new Tory blue collar base up north? This is the question that will define the twenties.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,330

    That goes without saying, cheaper airlines will always get more passengers.
    The flights were always almost full from the Cardiff jet hub. It was a really good service. Post jet hub flight schedules out of Cardiff are rubbish. For example Belfast once a day around lunchtime. I also don't believe the Dash 600s to be as safe as a 'proper' airliner.

    Cardiff, Exeter and Belfast City airports among others will also have virtually no flights.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,867
    edited January 2020

    This thread has resigned

    (but will still keep its title, house, perks and taxpayers money
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,818
    Grandiose said:
    Thanks. Interesting looking site.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,330
    kinabalu said:

    Not so odd. My view on the GE is that Johnson won it far more than Corbyn lost it. People voted positively for Brexit and "Boris" - and particularly the combination of those two unholy constructs. They voted for a "Boris Brexit". Or more accurately they voted to "Get Brexit Done" - by "Boris". Go back and replace Corbyn with AN Other for that GE in those circumstances against this Tory leader and you're still looking at a healthy Con majority. Perhaps not 80 but still a good one.

    But anyway, that's all water under the bridge. I should not be allowing you or others to drag me back into these stale topics. Is Johnson going to deliver some One Nation Socialism for the new Tory blue collar base up north? This is the question that will define the twenties.
    They don't want one nation socialism. They want cheap borrowing rates, a free NHS and no evidence of scary foreigners. If Johnson delivers that he will keep them on board.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Anorak said:

    The replies to this are horrendous. I don't know why this still surprises me. I just can't get my head around the fact there are SO MANY people with these views.
    https://twitter.com/BoardofDeputies/status/1216409365646839813

    I was surprised to learn that the Chair of the "Labour Friends of Palestine" is Lisa Nandy - which goes to show you can be for Palestine without being anti-semitic.

    This does rather illustrate that the whole "Labour antisemitism thing is really just about their support for Palestine" excuse is horsefeathers. It's antisemitism, full stop.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,724
    Anorak said:

    The replies to this are horrendous. I don't know why this still surprises me. I just can't get my head around the fact there are SO MANY people with these views.
    https://twitter.com/BoardofDeputies/status/1216409365646839813

    https://twitter.com/edballs/status/1216497478075408385
  • kinabalu said:

    Not so odd. My view on the GE is that Johnson won it far more than Corbyn lost it. People voted positively for Brexit and "Boris" - and particularly the combination of those two unholy constructs. They voted for a "Boris Brexit". Or more accurately they voted to "Get Brexit Done" - by "Boris". Go back and replace Corbyn with AN Other for that GE in those circumstances against this Tory leader and you're still looking at a healthy Con majority. Perhaps not 80 but still a good one.

    But anyway, that's all water under the bridge. I should not be allowing you or others to drag me back into these stale topics. Is Johnson going to deliver some One Nation Socialism for the new Tory blue collar base up north? This is the question that will define the twenties.
    In 2017, as late as polling day and even after the exit poll, CCHQ expected a majority, perhaps as many as 80. Of course that was without Boris as leader.

    It is not clear what changed between 2017 and 2019, though we can see CCHQ did examine which Labour policies were popular and shoot those foxes. The trouble with the Labour leadership contest is almost no-one seems to care what really happened and are just shouting everyone hates Jeremy or alternatively no, it was the Starmer-inspired Brexit fudge.
This discussion has been closed.