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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Long-Bailey gets boost in the Corbyn successor betting after t

We’ve now got the timetable for the LAB leadership election and already critics are saying that the party’s NEC is making it easier for Rebecca Long Bailey. This is from HuffPost’s, Paul Waugh.
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The rest are just made up random numbers.
The difficulty Lab had at 10.01pm on May 7th 2015 was what did Lab offer that the Cons didn't as they were within a gnat's crochet of each other around the centre of British politics. And there followed with several Ed-type centre leftists and...The Jezziah!
Well he was different, but we saw what the British public thought of that. The question remains, however: what is, or should be the difference between the Cons and Lab. Take Brexit out (which is not a left/right issue) and the answer lies in how much people think the Cons have moved to the right. Has it done so? Perhaps. We shall see how Dom and the ERG shape up. If so there is merit in having a sensible centre left type, eg Starmer in charge of Lab.
If not, then I don't think it matters and the Party might well elect a Corbyn-lite candidate because otherwise what is the line to differentiate themselves.
1. I would guess that around five candidates could get past the first hurdle of 10% (i..e. 22) MPs/MEPs.
2. However the second-stage hurdle of the CLPs and affiliates changes the dynamic in an interesting way: under the old rules, there wasn't much of a disincentive for MPs to back multiple candidates who fished in the same pond, because the AV system in the final vote meant that support could be expected to transfer between similarly-positioned candidates. This time it is different: candidates with similar appeal may knock each other out at the CLP hurdle unless they have the backing of the big unions.
3. Therefore it is hugely important that MPs do the initial pre-selection to ensure that there aren't too many candidates fishing in the same ponds. Will they take this on board? If they do, the field might thin out very rapidly.
Edit: corrected typos due to my mild dyslexia
This is starting to look strange.
The only game changer I can see is McDonnell. If he enters the race, then the dynamics of the entire situation are different.
There will be some cobbled together trade deal in time for the deadline this year which will sap peoples' attention further from an already diminished level (I bet a large number of people think that by Johnson winning the election, Brexit was done). Then there will be some nitty gritty terms of trade to go through over the subsequent years and by that time no one will care and there will be enough "wins" to announce at the right time for Cons' momentum to be renewed.
First is that in the 2017 election, Corbyn was popular. Second is that even leaving aside Brexit, Boris's Conservatives are the polar opposite of David Cameron's on two other key dimensions.
Cameron governments: socially liberal and fiscally conservative.
Now (and thanks to Dom): socially conservative and fiscally loose.
So what is it that Labour must oppose? I suppose we shall find out in due course but for the leadership race, an answer is needed rather sooner. It is even harder for LibDems who must differentiate themselves from both the main parties.
The optimist in me hopes that maybe the RLB delay in declaration is due to discussions to place Mcdonell as leader and RLB deputy for a period while she gains profile and experience so that when he resigns in her favour she is ready for the gig....
Edit to add that John McD is probably the best media performer on the Left.
Momentum appear to be favouring RLB, but there's a big push from somewhere for Ian Lavery - and that appears to be coming from Unite and others in the leader's team. There were outriders over the last few days pushing Lavery, and against Starmer/Phillips, but they are also now coming out against RLB and John Lansman specifically.
Thornberry 100/1
He’s Philips 20/1
Women on the rise - price wise...
I watched Starmers video and was impressed. More generally, I think the standard of candidates is much higher this time than in 2015, when it was SpAds vs Corbyn.
Does not want to run, or does not want to run at this time? I think anyone sane would not want to run.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jan/06/yvette-cooper-seven-things-labour-must-do-party-leader
Wed night I'm going to a party meeting about all this so on Thursday I should be brimming with further insight and scuttlebutt.
https://twitter.com/chroniclelive/status/1214238448946745351?s=21
Q: Three surnames to cover every US GE 1952 to 2004, EXCEPT ONE.
@rcs1000 got the 3rd name (Dole). Nobody got the missing year.
Answer: Nixon, Dole, Bush.
Only GE missing: 1964
Nixon - 52, 56, 60, 68, 72
Dole - 76, 96
Bush - 80, 84, 88, 92, 2000, 04
Clever how Dole fills two gaps, leaving 1964 as the only year not covered.
Leeds +2 goals 4-6
Leeds +3 goals 1-4
West Brom are playing well under a great manager.
Though even then nobody thinks of Dole - especially as there is a 20 year gap between his (only) two appearances. I wonder if that is itself a record?
I would love an explanation of handicap betting, thanks.
It's only goal difference but West Brom surely will get top two?
That went very well for Conservative supporters but not so much for the rest of us.
Trump improved the Republican score by 1.59 percentage points
Clinton dropped the Dem vote by 4.51 percentage points
Instead with 5 days it's a cracking match with an almost certain result.
It is surely blindingly obvious that a huge increase in the number of draws will not be good for Test cricket. Indeed it will likely kill it.
Then build a metro extension to the SW of the city region - Winlaton, Blaydon, Swalwell etc - which are effectively cut off from the city centre by crappy bus services.
They should say it - it's easy to look back and laugh now but just think - at one point "he was odds on in-running" - how scary is that?
https://twitter.com/RossFootball/status/1214252964333813760
I’m just surprised you think it’s a flaw in the plan rather than the essential core of it.
More amusingly, history should also record that Corbynism's best electoral performance produced almost exactly the same seat totals as New Labour's worst electoral defeat