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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Long-Bailey gets boost in the Corbyn successor betting after the NEC announce the contest rules

We’ve now got the timetable for the LAB leadership election and already critics are saying that the party’s NEC is making it easier for Rebecca Long Bailey. This is from HuffPost’s, Paul Waugh.

Read the full story here

Anabobazina

Think a Starmer-Jess dream ticket is probably the way forward for Labour. Not sure Rebecca makes the ballot given the in-fighting on the left wing of the party re: boosterising the bully boy Lavery.

Anabobazina

Richard N’s post on the earlier thread is spot on. Opportunity knocks for Labour - IF they get this hire right. Big if.

TheGreenMachine

I wouldn't say Keir is 52%.

Stocky

Anyone got any views about whether BF`s 14 about Nandy is value?

IshmaelZ

Anabobazina said:

Richard N’s post on the earlier thread is spot on. Opportunity knocks for Labour - IF they get this hire right. Big if.

They need to get the hire right and the hire needs too purge the loony left. Spartan if.

TheGreenMachine

Stocky said:

Anyone got any views about whether BF`s 14 about Nandy is value?

Personally I think it's between Keir and Rebecca.

The rest are just made up random numbers.

Nigel_Foremain

If Labour were as democratic as they like to pretend they would make the ballot open to anyone that cares over the age of 18 with no fee required.

TOPPING

fpt

The difficulty Lab had at 10.01pm on May 7th 2015 was what did Lab offer that the Cons didn't as they were within a gnat's crochet of each other around the centre of British politics. And there followed with several Ed-type centre leftists and...The Jezziah!

Well he was different, but we saw what the British public thought of that. The question remains, however: what is, or should be the difference between the Cons and Lab. Take Brexit out (which is not a left/right issue) and the answer lies in how much people think the Cons have moved to the right. Has it done so? Perhaps. We shall see how Dom and the ERG shape up. If so there is merit in having a sensible centre left type, eg Starmer in charge of Lab.

If not, then I don't think it matters and the Party might well elect a Corbyn-lite candidate because otherwise what is the line to differentiate themselves.

RandallFlagg

A long way to go, obviously, but if Starmer does win, who do people reckon he'll appoint as Shadow Chancellor? Given the circumstances, its probably going to have to be a woman, and should ideally be someone with an actual background in economics. Rachel Reeves, maybe? She'd certainly be an excellent choice, though it'd piss off the Corbynites.

rottenborough

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1214226566684774400

rottenborough

RandallFlagg said:

A long way to go, obviously, but if Starmer does win, who do people reckon he'll appoint as Shadow Chancellor? Given the circumstances, its probably going to have to be a woman, and should ideally be someone with an actual background in economics. Rachel Reeves, maybe? She'd certainly be an excellent choice, though it'd piss of the Corbynites.

Burgon.

Stark_Dawning

It hasn't been the most auspicious start to the year for Boris - what with Dom's recruitment silliness and Trump's starting WW3. But Boris can probably revive the magic on Brexit Day in a few weeks' time. But he'll want to keep that party rolling till 2024.

Mexicanpete

TOPPING said:

fpt

The difficulty Lab had at 10.01pm on May 7th 2015 was what did Lab offer that the Cons didn't as they were within a gnat's crochet of each other around the centre of British politics. And there followed with several Ed-type centre leftists and...The Jezziah!

Well he was different, but we saw what the British public thought of that. The question remains, however: what is, or should be the difference between the Cons and Lab. Take Brexit out (which is not a left/right issue) and the answer lies in how much people think the Cons have moved to the right. Has it done so? Perhaps. We shall see how Dom and the ERG shape up. If so there is merit in having a sensible centre left type, eg Starmer in charge of Lab.

If not, then I don't think it matters and the Party might well elect a Corbyn-lite candidate because otherwise what is the line to differentiate themselves.

Johnson's government will live or die by the success or otherwise of Brexit. Whoever wins the Labour leadership election is at the mercy of Johnson's fortune. Ian Lavery excepted.

Richard_Nabavi

Some observations on the process:

1. I would guess that around five candidates could get past the first hurdle of 10% (i..e. 22) MPs/MEPs.

2. However the second-stage hurdle of the CLPs and affiliates changes the dynamic in an interesting way: under the old rules, there wasn't much of a disincentive for MPs to back multiple candidates who fished in the same pond, because the AV system in the final vote meant that support could be expected to transfer between similarly-positioned candidates. This time it is different: candidates with similar appeal may knock each other out at the CLP hurdle unless they have the backing of the big unions.

3. Therefore it is hugely important that MPs do the initial pre-selection to ensure that there aren't too many candidates fishing in the same ponds. Will they take this on board? If they do, the field might thin out very rapidly.

Alistair

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-02/nine-states-face-economic-contraction-most-since-2009-crisis

TGOHF666

Thank you to whoever tipped pre-Xmas that the Corbyn exit date would be after March - nice one !

ExiledInScotland

The current leadership and Momentum have waited decades for their hard left faction to hold the levers of power within Labour. They will not admit failure and walk away. They are more for purity than winning. They will mobilise for their chosen candidate rather than accept a leader who can attract swing voters. The only candidates so far who get my attention are Nandy and Phillips. I think Starmer too tied to the Brexit-denialism of the old parliament and Long Bailey to be ridiculous.

Edit: corrected typos due to my mild dyslexia

Mexicanpete

rottenborough said:

RandallFlagg said:

A long way to go, obviously, but if Starmer does win, who do people reckon he'll appoint as Shadow Chancellor? Given the circumstances, its probably going to have to be a woman, and should ideally be someone with an actual background in economics. Rachel Reeves, maybe? She'd certainly be an excellent choice, though it'd piss of the Corbynites.

Burgon.

Nah, leadership material...in some dystopian nightmare.

Slackbladder

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1214226566684774400

And yet RLB hasn't officially declared yet....

This is starting to look strange.

Slackbladder

ExiledInScotland said:

The current leadership and Momentum have waited decades for their hard left faction to hold the levers of power within Labour. They will not admit failure and walk away. They are more for purity than winning. They will mobilise for their chosen candidate rather than accept a leader who can attract swing voters. The only candidate so far who get my attention Nandy and Phillips. I think Starmer too tied to the Brexit-denialism of the old parliament and Long Bailey to be ridiculous

That leaves???

The only game changer I can see is McDonnell. If he enters the race, then the dynamics of the entire situation are different.

TOPPING

Mexicanpete said:

TOPPING said:

fpt

The difficulty Lab had at 10.01pm on May 7th 2015 was what did Lab offer that the Cons didn't as they were within a gnat's crochet of each other around the centre of British politics. And there followed with several Ed-type centre leftists and...The Jezziah!

Well he was different, but we saw what the British public thought of that. The question remains, however: what is, or should be the difference between the Cons and Lab. Take Brexit out (which is not a left/right issue) and the answer lies in how much people think the Cons have moved to the right. Has it done so? Perhaps. We shall see how Dom and the ERG shape up. If so there is merit in having a sensible centre left type, eg Starmer in charge of Lab.

If not, then I don't think it matters and the Party might well elect a Corbyn-lite candidate because otherwise what is the line to differentiate themselves.

Johnson's government will live or die by the success or otherwise of Brexit. Whoever wins the Labour leadership election is at the mercy of Johnson's fortune. Ian Lavery excepted.

Praps. Will people notice one way or another? My estimation of Brexit is that it will be a 2p on beer and fags experience. Everyone poorer but nothing that will have people marching in the streets.

There will be some cobbled together trade deal in time for the deadline this year which will sap peoples' attention further from an already diminished level (I bet a large number of people think that by Johnson winning the election, Brexit was done). Then there will be some nitty gritty terms of trade to go through over the subsequent years and by that time no one will care and there will be enough "wins" to announce at the right time for Cons' momentum to be renewed.

Stocky

TGOHF666 said:

Thank you to whoever tipped pre-Xmas that the Corbyn exit date would be after March - nice one !

I take a bow

DecrepiterJohnL

TOPPING said:

fpt

The difficulty Lab had at 10.01pm on May 7th 2015 was what did Lab offer that the Cons didn't as they were within a gnat's crochet of each other around the centre of British politics. And there followed with several Ed-type centre leftists and...The Jezziah!

Well he was different, but we saw what the British public thought of that. The question remains, however: what is, or should be the difference between the Cons and Lab. Take Brexit out (which is not a left/right issue) and the answer lies in how much people think the Cons have moved to the right. Has it done so? Perhaps. We shall see how Dom and the ERG shape up. If so there is merit in having a sensible centre left type, eg Starmer in charge of Lab.

If not, then I don't think it matters and the Party might well elect a Corbyn-lite candidate because otherwise what is the line to differentiate themselves.

I think you have missed two crucial points and many non-tribal Conservatives have missed one of them.

First is that in the 2017 election, Corbyn was popular. Second is that even leaving aside Brexit, Boris's Conservatives are the polar opposite of David Cameron's on two other key dimensions.

Cameron governments: socially liberal and fiscally conservative.
Now (and thanks to Dom): socially conservative and fiscally loose.

So what is it that Labour must oppose? I suppose we shall find out in due course but for the leadership race, an answer is needed rather sooner. It is even harder for LibDems who must differentiate themselves from both the main parties.

Mexicanpete

ExiledInScotland said:

The current leadership and Momentum have waited decades for their hard left faction to hold the levers of power within Labour. They will not admit failure and walk away. They are more for purity than winning. They will mobilise for their chosen candidate rather than accept a leader who can attract swing voters. The only candidates so far who get my attention are Nandy and Phillips. I think Starmer too tied to the Brexit-denialism of the old parliament and Long Bailey to be ridiculous.

Edit: corrected typos due to my mild dyslexia

If Jon Lansmann wants another shot at a full hundred seat majority landslide for Boris, which he only just failed to achieve on December 12th, he must push for a continuity Corbyn candidate. If he would like to see a Labour government he would be best served by keeping quiet.

Anabobazina

ExiledInScotland said:

The current leadership and Momentum have waited decades for their hard left faction to hold the levers of power within Labour. They will not admit failure and walk away. They are more for purity than winning. They will mobilise for their chosen candidate rather than accept a leader who can attract swing voters. The only candidates so far who get my attention are Nandy and Phillips. I think Starmer too tied to the Brexit-denialism of the old parliament and Long Bailey to be ridiculous.

Edit: corrected typos due to my mild dyslexia

Hmm. So your tip would be... who?

Stocky

Mexicanpete said:

ExiledInScotland said:

The current leadership and Momentum have waited decades for their hard left faction to hold the levers of power within Labour. They will not admit failure and walk away. They are more for purity than winning. They will mobilise for their chosen candidate rather than accept a leader who can attract swing voters. The only candidates so far who get my attention are Nandy and Phillips. I think Starmer too tied to the Brexit-denialism of the old parliament and Long Bailey to be ridiculous.

Edit: corrected typos due to my mild dyslexia

If Jon Lansmann wants another shot at a full hundred seat majority landslide for Boris, which he only just failed to achieve on December 12th, he must push for a continuity Corbyn candidate. If he would like to see a Labour government he would be best served by keeping quiet.

Lansmann only failed to achieve it by virtue of his pals The Brexit Party.

DecrepiterJohnL

ExiledInScotland said:

The current leadership and Momentum have waited decades for their hard left faction to hold the levers of power within Labour. They will not admit failure and walk away. They are more for purity than winning. They will mobilise for their chosen candidate rather than accept a leader who can attract swing voters. The only candidates so far who get my attention are Nandy and Phillips. I think Starmer too tied to the Brexit-denialism of the old parliament and Long Bailey to be ridiculous.

Edit: corrected typos due to my mild dyslexia

Be careful here. Momentum has not waited decades for anything. It was only founded in 2015 as a sort of Jeremy Corbyn fan club. I suspect (dyor here!) many or even most of its members are not old tankies at all.

Stocky

ExiledInScotland said:

The current leadership and Momentum have waited decades for their hard left faction to hold the levers of power within Labour. They will not admit failure and walk away. They are more for purity than winning. They will mobilise for their chosen candidate rather than accept a leader who can attract swing voters. The only candidates so far who get my attention are Nandy and Phillips. I think Starmer too tied to the Brexit-denialism of the old parliament and Long Bailey to be ridiculous.

Edit: corrected typos due to my mild dyslexia

Long Bailey is ridiculous and Phillips (the dinner lady) is OK?

philiph

Slackbladder said:

ExiledInScotland said:

The current leadership and Momentum have waited decades for their hard left faction to hold the levers of power within Labour. They will not admit failure and walk away. They are more for purity than winning. They will mobilise for their chosen candidate rather than accept a leader who can attract swing voters. The only candidate so far who get my attention Nandy and Phillips. I think Starmer too tied to the Brexit-denialism of the old parliament and Long Bailey to be ridiculous

That leaves???

The only game changer I can see is McDonnell. If he enters the race, then the dynamics of the entire situation are different.

I don't think he will, but I (or at least my wallet) would love it if he won.

The optimist in me hopes that maybe the RLB delay in declaration is due to discussions to place Mcdonell as leader and RLB deputy for a period while she gains profile and experience so that when he resigns in her favour she is ready for the gig....

Edit to add that John McD is probably the best media performer on the Left.

kle4

DecrepiterJohnL said:

ExiledInScotland said:

The current leadership and Momentum have waited decades for their hard left faction to hold the levers of power within Labour. They will not admit failure and walk away. They are more for purity than winning. They will mobilise for their chosen candidate rather than accept a leader who can attract swing voters. The only candidates so far who get my attention are Nandy and Phillips. I think Starmer too tied to the Brexit-denialism of the old parliament and Long Bailey to be ridiculous.

Edit: corrected typos due to my mild dyslexia

Be careful here. Momentum has not waited decades for anything. It was only founded in 2015 as a sort of Jeremy Corbyn fan club. I suspect (dyor here!) many or even most of its members are not old tankies at all.

Those who direct it and inspire it are though, which is surely relevant.

Mexicanpete

Stocky said:

Mexicanpete said:

ExiledInScotland said:

The current leadership and Momentum have waited decades for their hard left faction to hold the levers of power within Labour. They will not admit failure and walk away. They are more for purity than winning. They will mobilise for their chosen candidate rather than accept a leader who can attract swing voters. The only candidates so far who get my attention are Nandy and Phillips. I think Starmer too tied to the Brexit-denialism of the old parliament and Long Bailey to be ridiculous.

Edit: corrected typos due to my mild dyslexia

If Jon Lansmann wants another shot at a full hundred seat majority landslide for Boris, which he only just failed to achieve on December 12th, he must push for a continuity Corbyn candidate. If he would like to see a Labour government he would be best served by keeping quiet.

Lansmann only failed to achieve it by virtue of his pals The Brexit Party.

Very true.

Anabobazina

philiph said:

Slackbladder said:

ExiledInScotland said:

The current leadership and Momentum have waited decades for their hard left faction to hold the levers of power within Labour. They will not admit failure and walk away. They are more for purity than winning. They will mobilise for their chosen candidate rather than accept a leader who can attract swing voters. The only candidate so far who get my attention Nandy and Phillips. I think Starmer too tied to the Brexit-denialism of the old parliament and Long Bailey to be ridiculous

That leaves???

The only game changer I can see is McDonnell. If he enters the race, then the dynamics of the entire situation are different.

I don't think he will, but I (or at least my wallet) would love it if he won.

The optimist in me hopes that maybe the RLB delay in declaration is due to discussions to place Mcdonell as leader and RLB deputy for a period while she gains profile and experience so that when he resigns in her favour she is ready for the gig....

Edit to add that John McD is probably the best media performer on the Left.

Lord help us.

nova

ExiledInScotland said:

The current leadership and Momentum have waited decades for their hard left faction to hold the levers of power within Labour. They will not admit failure and walk away. They are more for purity than winning. They will mobilise for their chosen candidate rather than accept a leader who can attract swing voters. The only candidates so far who get my attention are Nandy and Phillips. I think Starmer too tied to the Brexit-denialism of the old parliament and Long Bailey to be ridiculous.

Edit: corrected typos due to my mild dyslexia

As I mentioned in an earlier post, the current leadership and momentum are not necessarily campaigning for the same candidate.

Momentum appear to be favouring RLB, but there's a big push from somewhere for Ian Lavery - and that appears to be coming from Unite and others in the leader's team. There were outriders over the last few days pushing Lavery, and against Starmer/Phillips, but they are also now coming out against RLB and John Lansman specifically.

kle4

Mexicanpete said:

ExiledInScotland said:

The current leadership and Momentum have waited decades for their hard left faction to hold the levers of power within Labour. They will not admit failure and walk away. They are more for purity than winning. They will mobilise for their chosen candidate rather than accept a leader who can attract swing voters. The only candidates so far who get my attention are Nandy and Phillips. I think Starmer too tied to the Brexit-denialism of the old parliament and Long Bailey to be ridiculous.

Edit: corrected typos due to my mild dyslexia

If Jon Lansmann wants another shot at a full hundred seat majority landslide for Boris, which he only just failed to achieve on December 12th

He might actually want that, without realising it. It would mean that in Boris a new Thatcher figure would emerge to inspire such long hatred, and that hatred seems most important to his acolytes.

TGOHF666

YC now 50/1
Thornberry 100/1
He’s Philips 20/1

Women on the rise - price wise...

Anorak

philiph said:

Slackbladder said:

ExiledInScotland said:

The current leadership and Momentum have waited decades for their hard left faction to hold the levers of power within Labour. They will not admit failure and walk away. They are more for purity than winning. They will mobilise for their chosen candidate rather than accept a leader who can attract swing voters. The only candidate so far who get my attention Nandy and Phillips. I think Starmer too tied to the Brexit-denialism of the old parliament and Long Bailey to be ridiculous

That leaves???

The only game changer I can see is McDonnell. If he enters the race, then the dynamics of the entire situation are different.

I don't think he will, but I (or at least my wallet) would love it if he won.

The optimist in me hopes that maybe the RLB delay in declaration is due to discussions to place Mcdonell as leader and RLB deputy for a period while she gains profile and experience so that when he resigns in her favour she is ready for the gig....

Edit to add that John McD is probably the best media performer on the Left.

My gut is telling me that RLB really does not want to run, but has had pressure heaped upon her to do so. The Lavery ramping from the SWP wing has shaken her enough to dig her heels in.

nova

philiph said:

The optimist in me hopes that maybe the RLB delay in declaration is due to discussions to place Mcdonell as leader and RLB deputy

It looks to me like the delay is because she's not got the support of all the main players on the left.

rkrkrk

This inbuilt advantage stuff is pretty thin as far as I can see. Momentum are something like 10% of the membership? And they won't vote as a bloc anyway.

I watched Starmers video and was impressed. More generally, I think the standard of candidates is much higher this time than in 2015, when it was SpAds vs Corbyn.

Mexicanpete

kle4 said:

Mexicanpete said:

ExiledInScotland said:

The current leadership and Momentum have waited decades for their hard left faction to hold the levers of power within Labour. They will not admit failure and walk away. They are more for purity than winning. They will mobilise for their chosen candidate rather than accept a leader who can attract swing voters. The only candidates so far who get my attention are Nandy and Phillips. I think Starmer too tied to the Brexit-denialism of the old parliament and Long Bailey to be ridiculous.

Edit: corrected typos due to my mild dyslexia

If Jon Lansmann wants another shot at a full hundred seat majority landslide for Boris, which he only just failed to achieve on December 12th

He might actually want that, without realising it. It would mean that in Boris a new Thatcher figure would emerge to inspire such long hatred, and that hatred seems most important to his acolytes.

Quite possibly. He will be too old to enjoy the revolution when it finally arrives though.

Mexicanpete

rkrkrk said:

This inbuilt advantage stuff is pretty thin as far as I can see. Momentum are something like 10% of the membership? And they won't vote as a bloc anyway.

I watched Starmers video and was impressed. More generally, I think the standard of candidates is much higher this time than in 2015, when it was SpAds vs Corbyn.

It wasn't the Piers Morgan/Starmer video then.

philiph

Anorak said:

philiph said:

Slackbladder said:

ExiledInScotland said:

The current leadership and Momentum have waited decades for their hard left faction to hold the levers of power within Labour. They will not admit failure and walk away. They are more for purity than winning. They will mobilise for their chosen candidate rather than accept a leader who can attract swing voters. The only candidate so far who get my attention Nandy and Phillips. I think Starmer too tied to the Brexit-denialism of the old parliament and Long Bailey to be ridiculous

That leaves???

The only game changer I can see is McDonnell. If he enters the race, then the dynamics of the entire situation are different.

I don't think he will, but I (or at least my wallet) would love it if he won.

The optimist in me hopes that maybe the RLB delay in declaration is due to discussions to place Mcdonell as leader and RLB deputy for a period while she gains profile and experience so that when he resigns in her favour she is ready for the gig....

Edit to add that John McD is probably the best media performer on the Left.

My gut is telling me that RLB really does not want to run, but has had pressure heaped upon her to do so. The Lavery ramping from the SWP wing has shaken her enough to dig her heels in.

I'm sure you are right. It looks like there is a deep seated reason for non declaration. I don't believe there is a massive campaign in the dark and shadowy background, as that would almost certainly leaked by now.

Does not want to run, or does not want to run at this time? I think anyone sane would not want to run.

isam

Is it fair to say the Starmer fans seem to be those who thought the Lib Dems were the ones to be with at the last GE?

OldKingCole

philiph said:

Anorak said:

philiph said:

Slackbladder said:

ExiledInScotland said:

The current leadership and Momentum have waited decades for their hard left faction to hold the levers of power within Labour. They will not admit failure and walk away. They are more for purity than winning. They will mobilise for their chosen candidate rather than accept a leader who can attract swing voters. The only candidate so far who get my attention Nandy and Phillips. I think Starmer too tied to the Brexit-denialism of the old parliament and Long Bailey to be ridiculous

That leaves???

The only game changer I can see is McDonnell. If he enters the race, then the dynamics of the entire situation are different.

I don't think he will, but I (or at least my wallet) would love it if he won.

The optimist in me hopes that maybe the RLB delay in declaration is due to discussions to place Mcdonell as leader and RLB deputy for a period while she gains profile and experience so that when he resigns in her favour she is ready for the gig....

Edit to add that John McD is probably the best media performer on the Left.

My gut is telling me that RLB really does not want to run, but has had pressure heaped upon her to do so. The Lavery ramping from the SWP wing has shaken her enough to dig her heels in.

I'm sure you are right. It looks like there is a deep seated reason for non declaration. I don't believe there is a massive campaign in the dark and shadowy background, as that would almost certainly leaked by now.

Does not want to run, or does not want to run at this time? I think anyone sane would not want to run.

Aware of her own capabilities? This era gets more like the English Civil War by the day.

TheGreenMachine

TGOHF666 said:

YC now 50/1
Thornberry 100/1
He’s Philips 20/1

Women on the rise - price wise...

Save your money.

Richard_Nabavi

Yvette Cooper confirms she's not standing:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jan/06/yvette-cooper-seven-things-labour-must-do-party-leader

Mexicanpete

philiph said:

Anorak said:

philiph said:

Slackbladder said:

ExiledInScotland said:

The current leadership and Momentum have waited decades for their hard left faction to hold the levers of power within Labour. They will not admit failure and walk away. They are more for purity than winning. They will mobilise for their chosen candidate rather than accept a leader who can attract swing voters. The only candidate so far who get my attention Nandy and Phillips. I think Starmer too tied to the Brexit-denialism of the old parliament and Long Bailey to be ridiculous

That leaves???

The only game changer I can see is McDonnell. If he enters the race, then the dynamics of the entire situation are different.

I don't think he will, but I (or at least my wallet) would love it if he won.

The optimist in me hopes that maybe the RLB delay in declaration is due to discussions to place Mcdonell as leader and RLB deputy for a period while she gains profile and experience so that when he resigns in her favour she is ready for the gig....

Edit to add that John McD is probably the best media performer on the Left.

My gut is telling me that RLB really does not want to run, but has had pressure heaped upon her to do so. The Lavery ramping from the SWP wing has shaken her enough to dig her heels in.

I'm sure you are right. It looks like there is a deep seated reason for non declaration. I don't believe there is a massive campaign in the dark and shadowy background, as that would almost certainly leaked by now.

Does not want to run, or does not want to run at this time? I think anyone sane would not want to run.

Why not? You are assuming Boris' invincibility. He may not be invincible and someone non-conservative and sensible could become PM.

kinabalu

Stocky said:

Anyone got any views about whether BF`s 14 about Nandy is value?

Yes, I do. It's value IMO and I'm on. Soft Left, good on TV, relatable, Brexit proof, woman.

Wed night I'm going to a party meeting about all this so on Thursday I should be brimming with further insight and scuttlebutt.

Mexicanpete

Richard_Nabavi said:

Yvette Cooper confirms she's not standing:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jan/06/yvette-cooper-seven-things-labour-must-do-party-leader

Yvette who? She was the future once!

TheGreenMachine

Is anyone tempted by 5-1 on Leeds to win tonight's F.A cup match?

Gallowgate

Well this is positive news. Can’t say I’m holding my breath though.

https://twitter.com/chroniclelive/status/1214238448946745351?s=21

kle4

Mexicanpete said:

kle4 said:

Mexicanpete said:

ExiledInScotland said:

The current leadership and Momentum have waited decades for their hard left faction to hold the levers of power within Labour. They will not admit failure and walk away. They are more for purity than winning. They will mobilise for their chosen candidate rather than accept a leader who can attract swing voters. The only candidates so far who get my attention are Nandy and Phillips. I think Starmer too tied to the Brexit-denialism of the old parliament and Long Bailey to be ridiculous.

Edit: corrected typos due to my mild dyslexia

If Jon Lansmann wants another shot at a full hundred seat majority landslide for Boris, which he only just failed to achieve on December 12th

He might actually want that, without realising it. It would mean that in Boris a new Thatcher figure would emerge to inspire such long hatred, and that hatred seems most important to his acolytes.

Quite possibly. He will be too old to enjoy the revolution when it finally arrives though.

Revolutions often disappoint. He likely knows that.

Stocky

kinabalu said:

Stocky said:

Anyone got any views about whether BF`s 14 about Nandy is value?

Yes, I do. It's value IMO and I'm on. Soft Left, good on TV, relatable, Brexit proof, woman.

Wed night I'm going to a party meeting about all this so on Thursday I should be brimming with further insight and scuttlebutt.

Edit

Mexicanpete

TheGreenMachine said:

Is anyone tempted by 5-1 on Leeds to win tonight's F.A cup match?

That looks like good value.

MikeL

Answer to Quiz on previous thread:

Q: Three surnames to cover every US GE 1952 to 2004, EXCEPT ONE.

@rcs1000 got the 3rd name (Dole). Nobody got the missing year.

Answer: Nixon, Dole, Bush.

Only GE missing: 1964

Nixon - 52, 56, 60, 68, 72

Dole - 76, 96

Bush - 80, 84, 88, 92, 2000, 04

Clever how Dole fills two gaps, leaving 1964 as the only year not covered.

TheGreenMachine

Mexicanpete said:

TheGreenMachine said:

Is anyone tempted by 5-1 on Leeds to win tonight's F.A cup match?

That looks like good value.

Yes, arsenal are playing their reserve team.

Leeds +2 goals 4-6
Leeds +3 goals 1-4

Wulfrun_Phil

isam said:

Is it fair to say the Starmer fans seem to be those who thought the Lib Dems were the ones to be with at the last GE?

Not in my case.

Mexicanpete

kle4 said:

Mexicanpete said:

kle4 said:

Mexicanpete said:

ExiledInScotland said:

The current leadership and Momentum have waited decades for their hard left faction to hold the levers of power within Labour. They will not admit failure and walk away. They are more for purity than winning. They will mobilise for their chosen candidate rather than accept a leader who can attract swing voters. The only candidates so far who get my attention are Nandy and Phillips. I think Starmer too tied to the Brexit-denialism of the old parliament and Long Bailey to be ridiculous.

Edit: corrected typos due to my mild dyslexia

If Jon Lansmann wants another shot at a full hundred seat majority landslide for Boris, which he only just failed to achieve on December 12th

He might actually want that, without realising it. It would mean that in Boris a new Thatcher figure would emerge to inspire such long hatred, and that hatred seems most important to his acolytes.

Quite possibly. He will be too old to enjoy the revolution when it finally arrives though.

Revolutions often disappoint. He likely knows that.

One would have thought that was a salutary lesson he learned last month, although it was probably down to the corrupt forces of capitalism, so he might as well try again.

OldKingCole

Gallowgate said:

Well this is positive news. Can’t say I’m holding my breath though.

https://twitter.com/chroniclelive/status/1214238448946745351?s=21

Wonder what promises he can make about Nissan!

Wulfrun_Phil

MikeL said:

Answer to Quiz on previous thread:

Q: Three surnames to cover every US GE 1952 to 2004, EXCEPT ONE.

@rcs1000 got the 3rd name (Dole). Nobody got the missing year.

Answer: Nixon, Dole, Bush.

Only GE missing: 1964

Nixon - 52, 56, 60, 68, 72

Dole - 76, 96

Bush - 80, 84, 88, 92, 2000, 04

Clever how Dole fills two gaps, leaving 1964 as the only year not covered.

Cheers. The "or Dem" reference was a red herring then!

Mexicanpete

TheGreenMachine said:

Mexicanpete said:

TheGreenMachine said:

Is anyone tempted by 5-1 on Leeds to win tonight's F.A cup match?

That looks like good value.

Yes, arsenal are playing their reserve team.

Leeds +2 goals 4-6
Leeds +3 goals 1-4

Being a Baggie, I would like to see Leeds get caught up in a really, really long cup run.

kinabalu

Mexicanpete said:

Why not? You are assuming Boris' invincibility. He may not be invincible and someone non-conservative and sensible could become PM.

Indeed. The Opposition Leader is one step from being PM and this is a deeply unpredictable world.

philiph

TheGreenMachine said:

Mexicanpete said:

TheGreenMachine said:

Is anyone tempted by 5-1 on Leeds to win tonight's F.A cup match?

That looks like good value.

Yes, arsenal are playing their reserve team.

Leeds +2 goals 4-6
Leeds +3 goals 1-4

How will you know the difference?

Mexicanpete

kinabalu said:

Mexicanpete said:

Why not? You are assuming Boris' invincibility. He may not be invincible and someone non-conservative and sensible could become PM.

Indeed. The Opposition Leader is one step from being PM and this is a deeply unpredictable world.

Unless your name is Jeremy Corbyn or Ian Lavery.

TheGreenMachine

Mexicanpete said:

TheGreenMachine said:

Mexicanpete said:

TheGreenMachine said:

Is anyone tempted by 5-1 on Leeds to win tonight's F.A cup match?

That looks like good value.

Yes, arsenal are playing their reserve team.

Leeds +2 goals 4-6
Leeds +3 goals 1-4

Being a Baggie, I would like to see Leeds get caught up in a really, really long cup run.

There you are now.

West Brom are playing well under a great manager.

MikeL

Wulfrun_Phil said:

MikeL said:

Answer to Quiz on previous thread:

Q: Three surnames to cover every US GE 1952 to 2004, EXCEPT ONE.

@rcs1000 got the 3rd name (Dole). Nobody got the missing year.

Answer: Nixon, Dole, Bush.

Only GE missing: 1964

Nixon - 52, 56, 60, 68, 72

Dole - 76, 96

Bush - 80, 84, 88, 92, 2000, 04

Clever how Dole fills two gaps, leaving 1964 as the only year not covered.

Cheers. The "or Dem" reference was a red herring then!

Yes - should be too easy if say Republican!

Though even then nobody thinks of Dole - especially as there is a 20 year gap between his (only) two appearances. I wonder if that is itself a record?

rcs1000

Alistair said:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-02/nine-states-face-economic-contraction-most-since-2009-crisis

Of those, the one that must worry President Trump is Pennsylvania. It has 20 electoral college votes, and went Trump by just 0.8%.

Mexicanpete

TheGreenMachine said:

Mexicanpete said:

TheGreenMachine said:

Mexicanpete said:

TheGreenMachine said:

Is anyone tempted by 5-1 on Leeds to win tonight's F.A cup match?

That looks like good value.

Yes, arsenal are playing their reserve team.

Leeds +2 goals 4-6
Leeds +3 goals 1-4

Being a Baggie, I would like to see Leeds get caught up in a really, really long cup run.

There you are now.

West Brom are playing well under a great manager.

Christmas results were as usual disastrous.

Wulfrun_Phil

philiph said:

Slackbladder said:

ExiledInScotland said:

The current leadership and Momentum have waited decades for their hard left faction to hold the levers of power within Labour. They will not admit failure and walk away. They are more for purity than winning. They will mobilise for their chosen candidate rather than accept a leader who can attract swing voters. The only candidate so far who get my attention Nandy and Phillips. I think Starmer too tied to the Brexit-denialism of the old parliament and Long Bailey to be ridiculous

That leaves???

The only game changer I can see is McDonnell. If he enters the race, then the dynamics of the entire situation are different.

I don't think he will, but I (or at least my wallet) would love it if he won.

The optimist in me hopes that maybe the RLB delay in declaration is due to discussions to place Mcdonell as leader and RLB deputy for a period while she gains profile and experience so that when he resigns in her favour she is ready for the gig....

Edit to add that John McD is probably the best media performer on the Left.

The very person who went on the record on 13th December accepting full responsibility for Labour's most disasterous election result since 1983. Should his reward for failure really be that he becomes de jure as well as de facto leader?

TheGreenMachine

philiph said:

TheGreenMachine said:

Mexicanpete said:

TheGreenMachine said:

Is anyone tempted by 5-1 on Leeds to win tonight's F.A cup match?

That looks like good value.

Yes, arsenal are playing their reserve team.

Leeds +2 goals 4-6
Leeds +3 goals 1-4

How will you know the difference?

Don't you know what way handicap betting works?

kinabalu

Mexicanpete said:

Unless your name is Jeremy Corbyn or Ian Lavery.

Jez came close in 2017. Indeed he went odds on in-running at one point on election night. As for Lavery, no way will he be Labour leader IMO but if he did win this contest - well then, yes, massive recession under "Boris" plus constant sleazy scandal, and the Lav would have a decent shot at PM.

philiph

TheGreenMachine said:

philiph said:

TheGreenMachine said:

Mexicanpete said:

TheGreenMachine said:

Is anyone tempted by 5-1 on Leeds to win tonight's F.A cup match?

That looks like good value.

Yes, arsenal are playing their reserve team.

Leeds +2 goals 4-6
Leeds +3 goals 1-4

How will you know the difference?

Don't you know what way handicap betting works?

It was a sarcastic comment on the poor quality of arsenal 1st team.

I would love an explanation of handicap betting, thanks.

Mexicanpete

kinabalu said:

Mexicanpete said:

Unless your name is Jeremy Corbyn or Ian Lavery.

Jez came close in 2017. Indeed he went odds on in-running at one point on election night. As for Lavery, no way will he be Labour leader IMO but if he did win this contest - well then, yes, massive recession under "Boris" plus constant sleazy scandal, and the Lav would have a decent shot at PM.

Boris could be filmed eating live kittens and he would still win a landslide against Lavery.

TheGreenMachine

It's only goal difference but West Brom surely will get top two?

Mexicanpete

TheGreenMachine said:

It's only goal difference but West Brom surely will get top two?

I would like to think so, but they have shipped a truck load of points up to Yorkshire in the last two weeks.

kinabalu

Stocky said:

Edit

I was just about to reply to that. Now it's gone. Strangely poignant.

kyf_100

Nigel_Foremain said:

If Labour were as democratic as they like to pretend they would make the ballot open to anyone that cares over the age of 18 with no fee required.

I thought they were in favour of votes for 16 year olds?

Mexicanpete

Nigel_Foremain said:

If Labour were as democratic as they like to pretend they would make the ballot open to anyone that cares over the age of 18 with no fee required.

That was Ed's big idea. All the PB Tories paid their £3 and duly elected Jeremy Corbyn as Prime Minister in waiting.

That went very well for Conservative supporters but not so much for the rest of us.

Alistair

rcs1000 said:

Alistair said:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-02/nine-states-face-economic-contraction-most-since-2009-crisis

Of those, the one that must worry President Trump is Pennsylvania. It has 20 electoral college votes, and went Trump by just 0.8%.

An instructive state for my, its all about Differential turnout, hypothesis.

Trump improved the Republican score by 1.59 percentage points
Clinton dropped the Dem vote by 4.51 percentage points

TOPPING

Mexicanpete said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

If Labour were as democratic as they like to pretend they would make the ballot open to anyone that cares over the age of 18 with no fee required.

That was Ed's big idea. All the PB Tories paid their £3 and duly elected Jeremy Corbyn as Prime Minister in waiting.

That went very well for Conservative supporters but not so much for the rest of us.

Yes. The biggest win of recent political times aside from Nigel and the ERG was the three quidders. Directly contributed to a Cons govt for the foreseeable future.

MikeL

Suppose the current SA/Eng Test was 4 days - it would have been a bore draw.

Instead with 5 days it's a cracking match with an almost certain result.

It is surely blindingly obvious that a huge increase in the number of draws will not be good for Test cricket. Indeed it will likely kill it.

NorthernPowerhouse

Gallowgate said:

Well this is positive news. Can’t say I’m holding my breath though.

https://twitter.com/chroniclelive/status/1214238448946745351?s=21

And here is what we used to refer to as "the red wall", it is rumoured that this area was once dominated by Labour MPs, but once is was weakened it collapsed entirely.

Anabobazina

Gallowgate said:

Well this is positive news. Can’t say I’m holding my breath though.

https://twitter.com/chroniclelive/status/1214238448946745351?s=21

Shrapps is right to reject devolution to the utterly nonsensical “North of Tyne” mayor. The mayoralty should be Greater Newcastle.

Then build a metro extension to the SW of the city region - Winlaton, Blaydon, Swalwell etc - which are effectively cut off from the city centre by crappy bus services.

MikeL

kinabalu said:

Mexicanpete said:

Unless your name is Jeremy Corbyn or Ian Lavery.

Jez came close in 2017. Indeed he went odds on in-running at one point on election night. As for Lavery, no way will he be Labour leader IMO but if he did win this contest - well then, yes, massive recession under "Boris" plus constant sleazy scandal, and the Lav would have a decent shot at PM.

This site is wonderful - when the history books are written re how close Corbyn came to becoming PM I wonder if they'll say "he went odds on in-running"?

They should say it - it's easy to look back and laugh now but just think - at one point "he was odds on in-running" - how scary is that?

Gallowgate

Anabobazina said:

Gallowgate said:

Well this is positive news. Can’t say I’m holding my breath though.

https://twitter.com/chroniclelive/status/1214238448946745351?s=21

Shrapps is right to reject devolution to the utterly nonsensical “North of Tyne” mayor. The mayoralty should be Greater Newcastle.

Then build a metro extension to the SW of the city region - Winlaton, Blaydon, Swalwell etc - which are effectively cut off from the city centre by crappy bus services.

Gateshead and South Tyneside were supposed to be part of it but the small-minded councilors decided they didn’t want to.

TheScreamingEagles

https://twitter.com/RichardBurgon/status/1214240399939788800
https://twitter.com/RossFootball/status/1214252964333813760

TheScreamingEagles

So the results are announced on the 4th of April, the same day as the Grand National, I wonder if we can get an accumulator going.

Anabobazina

NorthernPowerhouse said:

Gallowgate said:

Well this is positive news. Can’t say I’m holding my breath though.

https://twitter.com/chroniclelive/status/1214238448946745351?s=21

And here is what we used to refer to as "the red wall", it is rumoured that this area was once dominated by Labour MPs, but once is was weakened it collapsed entirely.

Don’t give up the day job.

Anabobazina

Gallowgate said:

Anabobazina said:

Gallowgate said:

Well this is positive news. Can’t say I’m holding my breath though.

https://twitter.com/chroniclelive/status/1214238448946745351?s=21

Shrapps is right to reject devolution to the utterly nonsensical “North of Tyne” mayor. The mayoralty should be Greater Newcastle.

Then build a metro extension to the SW of the city region - Winlaton, Blaydon, Swalwell etc - which are effectively cut off from the city centre by crappy bus services.

Gateshead and South Tyneside were supposed to be part of it but the small-minded councilors decided they didn’t want to.

It shouldn’t be up to those losers. It should have been imposed.

Mexicanpete

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/RichardBurgon/status/1214240399939788800
https://twitter.com/RossFootball/status/1214252964333813760

Another reason not to like Burgon.

ydoethur

MikeL said:

Suppose the current SA/Eng Test was 4 days - it would have been a bore draw.

Instead with 5 days it's a cracking match with an almost certain result.

It is surely blindingly obvious that a huge increase in the number of draws will not be good for Test cricket. Indeed it will likely kill it.

Yes it would.

I’m just surprised you think it’s a flaw in the plan rather than the essential core of it.

isam

TheGreenMachine said:

Mexicanpete said:

TheGreenMachine said:

Is anyone tempted by 5-1 on Leeds to win tonight's F.A cup match?

That looks like good value.

Yes, arsenal are playing their reserve team.

Leeds +2 goals 4-6
Leeds +3 goals 1-4

So are Leeds

NorthernPowerhouse

Anabobazina said:

Gallowgate said:

Anabobazina said:

Gallowgate said:

Well this is positive news. Can’t say I’m holding my breath though.

https://twitter.com/chroniclelive/status/1214238448946745351?s=21

Shrapps is right to reject devolution to the utterly nonsensical “North of Tyne” mayor. The mayoralty should be Greater Newcastle.

Then build a metro extension to the SW of the city region - Winlaton, Blaydon, Swalwell etc - which are effectively cut off from the city centre by crappy bus services.

Gateshead and South Tyneside were supposed to be part of it but the small-minded councilors decided they didn’t want to.

It shouldn’t be up to those losers. It should have been imposed.

It's quite remarkable just how destructive and resistant councillors can be to something shakes up a cosy system. A weak government cant be bold in the face of resistance. Now they can just do it!

isam

Wulfrun_Phil said:

isam said:

Is it fair to say the Starmer fans seem to be those who thought the Lib Dems were the ones to be with at the last GE?

Not in my case.

I think there are plenty though. People who didn’t want Brexit, hate Boris and Corbyn, loved ChangeUK, TIG etc and think there are lots of voters like them out there if only they can get the right salesperson. But maybe there just isn’t really a market for it outside of the political bubble

HYUFD

The Democratic primaries will be effectively wrapped up quicker than the Labour leadership race it seems

partypoliticalorphan

Stocky said:

TGOHF666 said:

Thank you to whoever tipped pre-Xmas that the Corbyn exit date would be after March - nice one !

I take a bow

Thanks Stocky. My winnings more than balance my loss on Angela Rayner for Leader.

HYUFD

rcs1000 said:

Alistair said:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-02/nine-states-face-economic-contraction-most-since-2009-crisis

Of those, the one that must worry President Trump is Pennsylvania. It has 20 electoral college votes, and went Trump by just 0.8%.

Note Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio and Florida and Iowa and Virginia are not included though

BluestBlue

MikeL said:

kinabalu said:

Mexicanpete said:

Unless your name is Jeremy Corbyn or Ian Lavery.

Jez came close in 2017. Indeed he went odds on in-running at one point on election night. As for Lavery, no way will he be Labour leader IMO but if he did win this contest - well then, yes, massive recession under "Boris" plus constant sleazy scandal, and the Lav would have a decent shot at PM.

This site is wonderful - when the history books are written re how close Corbyn came to becoming PM I wonder if they'll say "he went odds on in-running"?

They should say it - it's easy to look back and laugh now but just think - at one point "he was odds on in-running" - how scary is that?

It's the main reason why Labour shouldn't be trusted with government again until the entire far-left apparatus has been purged...

More amusingly, history should also record that Corbynism's best electoral performance produced almost exactly the same seat totals as New Labour's worst electoral defeat

squareroot2

partypoliticalorphan said:

Stocky said:

TGOHF666 said:

Thank you to whoever tipped pre-Xmas that the Corbyn exit date would be after March - nice one !

I take a bow

Thanks Stocky. My winnings more than balance my loss on Angela Rayner for Leader.

Talking of the word bow, .. for years I thought Sherlock Holmes final cases were his last bow (as in his violin) not last bow as in bending in deference.

BluestBlue

Anabobazina said:

NorthernPowerhouse said:

Gallowgate said:

Well this is positive news. Can’t say I’m holding my breath though.

https://twitter.com/chroniclelive/status/1214238448946745351?s=21

And here is what we used to refer to as "the red wall", it is rumoured that this area was once dominated by Labour MPs, but once is was weakened it collapsed entirely.

Don’t give up the day job.

Sadly the Red Wall MPs had to!

eek

Anabobazina said:

Gallowgate said:

Anabobazina said:

Gallowgate said:

Well this is positive news. Can’t say I’m holding my breath though.

https://twitter.com/chroniclelive/status/1214238448946745351?s=21

Shrapps is right to reject devolution to the utterly nonsensical “North of Tyne” mayor. The mayoralty should be Greater Newcastle.

Then build a metro extension to the SW of the city region - Winlaton, Blaydon, Swalwell etc - which are effectively cut off from the city centre by crappy bus services.

Gateshead and South Tyneside were supposed to be part of it but the small-minded councilors decided they didn’t want to.

It shouldn’t be up to those losers. It should have been imposed.

Not quite - Gateshead, South Tyneside, Sunderland and County Durham