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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With Iowa barely a month away Bernie steps up the attacks on B
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With Iowa barely a month away Bernie steps up the attacks on Biden
We are only weeks away from the Iowa caucuses – the first state primary in the prolonged process in which the Democrats will decide who shall be the nominee to fight Trump next November.
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"Following his death, we urge all parties to de-escalate. Further conflict is in none of our interests.”
If anyone would like to argue that there aren't 'belligerent actions and rhetoric coming from the US' from the chickenhawk extraordinaire downwards, feel free to develop this theme.
https://twitter.com/MonicaLennon7/status/1213038153948372992?s=20
1) he is old and seems to be slowing mentally
2) he is gaffe-prone, and always has been
3) he is a poor campaigner who failed in two earlier primary races
The case for Biden is he is ahead in the polls, and by a fair margin for a long time.
If I were a primary voter, the downside would be of greater concern but as a punter, the latter is interesting.
Good candidates can win Generals.
Still has a sniff.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/476609-klobuchar-brings-in-114-million-in-fourth-quarter
Unlike the Bern... LOL.
And possibly finding it harder to raise cash. Many of their potential donors will have already given them money, and some will have seem contributions wasted on someone they already beat. Mind, it didn't seem to harm Hillary, and even the colossal amount she spent wasn't enough to beat Trump.
Difficult to pull off, though - and Warren and Buttigieg are engaging in a bit of M.A.D. too.
Which simply isn't possible with most of the rest of the states - which is to Biden's advantage.
Sanders is obviously very liberal so not a great fit, and Warren has faded generally after her spike to the twenties.
Biden does also lead support amongst white conservative democrats but he's much more in the pack with white voters overall.
That said there is not likely to be value in either of these positions until there is an unexpected primary result, or events like today’s attack in Iraq which might poll badly with the Trump base.
Surely these two events cannot be linked.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-50981359
If she were clever she should make the case for negotiating terms before a referendum. This would likely lead to some anti Union sentiment, and also get around one of the negatives of a Brexit we voted without knowing what was on offer.
It still doesn’t get around the central flawed logic that union bad, European Union good though.
People seem to fail to understand Biden's ground, its about sunny optimism and moderation versus what is seen as the unpleasantness and the mean spiritedness of Trump. Its a very clear set of battle lines if he gets the nomination.
Any moderate Democrat, short of a complete balls up, probably has 46-47% locked up in the country already. Motivation against Trump is as strong as motivation for him.
The bigger problem for the Dems other than picking some earnest clear left winger is a decent 3rd party candidate. They will be more impacted by this than Trump.
https://twitter.com/BernieSanders/status/1212959356599357441?s=20
https://twitter.com/BernieSanders/status/1212959357425651713?s=20
https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1212954848666234880?s=20
But they also recognise there are reasons why you tend not to assassinate other country’s leaders, and this excrescence was effectively Iran’s deputy leader.
And you particularly don’t do so if you don’t have any strategic plan to follow up with (tweeting the US flag doesn’t count).
If there is another referendum I expect to vote for the Union. I don't feel we should give up on it just because the English nationalists and especially the present UK government are making such a mess of it. We should take a longer view in my opinion. I also expect independence to win the referendum. I suspect Johnson will very forcefully ignore calls for there to be another referendum, which will itself contribute to a constitutional crisis.
CarlottaVance said:
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Joyous civic nationalism!
If SINDY wants to rejoin the EU - why would the EU agree to no border with a third country?
Answer came there none....
more absolute crap, again for the blind and hard of hearing , what do all the other countries in the world do with their borders, what is so special about Scotland that it is the only country in the world that could not handle a border, what kind of idiot are you.
Morbidity probability is very low for both Trump and Biden from here till the time of the appropriate event. Assassination probability for Trump doesn't matter if he's in his 30s or 70s.
Their age isn't really that relevant for betting purposes right now.
This is what people were expecting
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/mar/24/what-if-scotland-had-voted-yes-independence
More money for everything basically. Independence will be the end of the SNP.
Judging by current odds and what I remember various bettors backing and tipping up from time to time, loads of books on here must be absolubtely hideously underwater.
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Thank you for another exposition of “joyous civic nationalism” a la SNP.
So how would Scotland deal with a hard border with its biggest trading partner?
Answer came there none.....
A hard border will only be of significance for exports of physical goods. IIRC the proportions of Scottish total goods exports are 38% To rest of UK, 31.5% to the EU and 30.5% to the rest of the World.
see also https://blogs.gov.scot/scotlands-economy/2018/12/06/eu-taking-more-than-half-of-scotlands-exports/
Unless you really mean trade in financial services with the EU is going to be seriously disrupted by Brexit?
They could have stayed in Iraq and shut Iran out in 2010 (which would later have prevented Iran saving Assad), but Obama blew that.
I have literally no idea what Trump is up to - beyond swatting someone who offended him.
It is plain that with 60%+ for remain and 45%+ for independence their must be some crossover.
There is also a logical flaw for those who want to leave the EU but remain in the Union.
The easiest way to understand things is that Trump sees a personal benefit in doing it now. That is exactly how he has worked since the day he became President. But up to now it has had domestic or bilateral consequences. Now he has gone global.
If that is right, it makes it far harder for governments, including our own, to come up with a response that goes beyond platitudes about de-escalation.
I imagine Riyadh won't be unhappy with current events and I wonder how much sign-off the Saudi Crown Prince had on all this. After all, a small jump in oil prices doesn't hurt the Saudi economy in the short term and destabilising Iran's military structure might assist Saudi efforts in Yemen.
I thought Raab's response measured this morning as was Davey's while Corbyn's was predictable. The question will be the nature of any "response" from Tehran - an attack on Israel perhaps or maybe Saudi ? It may just be the bluster underlines their inability to do anything significant against the global superpower even with their new "allies" - Russia and China.
Are you an ethical vegan as well?
The SNP pretending it doesn't hurt at all - and Westminster would have done far worse - will be the comedy turn of the Edinburgh Festival.....
deficit at below 3% of GDP please.
Making Edinburgh the Athens of the North in more ways than one.
UKIP / Brexit Party still knocking around so I don’t think they will go as quickly as all that. They will probably try a Brexit / Reform Party manoeuvre and rebrand as something like Scotland Together or Scotland First, or invoke a bit of national pride calling themselves the Thistle or Tartan party!
For example the Scottish Parliament building cost in excess of ten times the amount that the Welsh assembly cost. Was this cost down to materials. Well probably a small amount, but the biggest thing was that rather than consulting at the beginning and then delivering the project, the Scottish Parliament consulted users during the project and had large amounts of changes due to that. Does this tell us that welsh politicians are somehow better than Scots. Not in the slightest, it tells us that organisations mess things up regularly.
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That said, I don't really see what's objectionable about it. Ethical vegans are far more numerous than many small religious sects and have a worked-through set of ethical beliefs. Why shouldn't they have the same protections as Seventh Day Adventists or Baha'is?
Every time England gets near to parity they throw it away.