politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » At last somebody is studying the voters who could decide GE
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Absurd and totally irrelevant. How the hell would Richard Ritchie know what the ghost of Enoch Powell would or wouldn't do? It's all a political rant against UKIP and it aint going to work.anotherDave said:
"Forty years ago this week, in the hope of leaving the European Economic Community, Enoch Powell urged the country to vote in the General Election for the political party which would offer a referendum.isam said:
Link doesn't work. Do you know the thrust of the content?JohnO said:
40 years later, an almost identical choice faces the British people, and this time Powell’s advice would have the opposite effect to that of four decades ago. This time, the party offering a referendum is the Conservative Party.
unless he considered Ukip capable of forming a majority in the House of Commons (which is highly improbable) he would regard a vote in its favour, especially at a General Election, as a wasted vote."
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2569845/RICHARD-RITCHIE-Why-Enoch-Powell-wouldnt-vote-Ukip-former-private-secretary.html
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Oops - I forgot to talk about the thread header. I don't like LD>Lab switchers - a mixture of fickle and spiteful with added Ed M fandom.0
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But don't forget that you keep telling us that this group is more active and aware and committed than everyone else. And we are talking about 8% - so if you lose 1-2% vote share then it basically means you are level pegging with the Tories *at a point when UKIP is riding high*.NickPalmer said:
Well, two answers to that. First, 70-80% of any cohort is pretty good - if you interview 10 people in any group, you'll find one who isn't going to bother. Second,we're dancing on the head of a pin - 20% of 5%. You think we might lose 1% of the total vote with this current support. Perhaps.Charles said:
But of the 10 responses I caught on the video, there were 6 rated 9/10, 2 8s, a 6 and a 1. (10 being most likely to vote Labour).
Best case you probably will keep 80% of the LD10 defectors. I would say - based on today - you are more likely to be at 70-75%. And you really think there will be no change between now and next May?
As I've said before, I think traditional Lab AND Con turnout is much more iffy than this group.
That's not a great starting position a year out.0 -
I have Owen jones, Laurie Penny and Polly Toynbee among others.. maybe you are indeed right..HurstLlama said:"Twitter seems to almost entirely exist of people which think they are both funnier, and morally superior to the great uneducated masses."
What one reads on Twitter depends on who one has decided to follow. Maybe you need to look at your "Following" list.0 -
Mr. Corporeal,corporeal said:
I think voting is far more an emotional decision than that. And that the past does play a lot into it.Charles said:
May be I'm too much of an optimist, but I like to think that when the General Election comes around the type of people who vote also take the time to think carefully about why they vote the way they do/HurstLlama said:
I am not sure it would matter, Mr. Charles. UKIP are prospering as a repository for protest. If they can articulate the concerns of the people who feel ignored by the main parties then UKIP will continue to suck up votes and members.Charles said:
Do they have a solution though? Or even a coherent policy?taffys said:What's interesting about the UKIP posters is that they have avoided topics that might have garnered them more support than the ones they chose namely;-
1. pressure on housing
2. pressure on the NHS
3. pressure on schools
It's less a question of 'do I agree with your manifesto', more 'what kind of person am I, and what kind of party do I think you are'. The sort of identity questions that get forged over long term political experience, influenced by recent events but also by past events.
Tactical voting etc overlays that. But that base question of identity is what drives voting most.
Perhaps that explains why lots of people drift to the right as they get older, they have more past and, as a result, are not so influenced by propaganda.0 -
No, of course not, just on the wind up.corporeal said:
Out of curiosity Nigel, you really believe that? I mean really?nigel4england said:
Not sure about the selfishness bit but otherwise spot on.SouthamObserver said:
Didn't we all realise this a while back? Those on the left are driven by envy, hatred, elitism and selfishness. They are hypocrites who think and act irrationally, loathe the white working class, Britain and British history. People on the right are just better than them.Neil said:Things I learned on pbc today: lefties are truly terrible, terrible people but righties are far too lovely to hate them for this.
I know I come across as some right wing nut job but as I have said before I cannot stand tribal politics, I find it both childish and tedious.
I could find good things to say about all the parties, but on a personal note I want out of the EU and I passionately believe in grammar schools, so UKIP suit me best. I also detest the liberal elite from the main parties, in addition I don't like the sinister Common Purpose or Bildenburg groups.
As well as fitting with my two wishes outlined above a vote for UKIP is also a shot across the bows of the so called elite.0 -
Mr Llama, I think they are less influenced by events of the time, but they are influenced by a lifetime of propaganda.HurstLlama said:
Mr. Corporeal,corporeal said:
I think voting is far more an emotional decision than that. And that the past does play a lot into it.Charles said:
May be I'm too much of an optimist, but I like to think that when the General Election comes around the type of people who vote also take the time to think carefully about why they vote the way they do/HurstLlama said:
I am not sure it would matter, Mr. Charles. UKIP are prospering as a repository for protest. If they can articulate the concerns of the people who feel ignored by the main parties then UKIP will continue to suck up votes and members.Charles said:
Do they have a solution though? Or even a coherent policy?taffys said:What's interesting about the UKIP posters is that they have avoided topics that might have garnered them more support than the ones they chose namely;-
1. pressure on housing
2. pressure on the NHS
3. pressure on schools
It's less a question of 'do I agree with your manifesto', more 'what kind of person am I, and what kind of party do I think you are'. The sort of identity questions that get forged over long term political experience, influenced by recent events but also by past events.
Tactical voting etc overlays that. But that base question of identity is what drives voting most.
Perhaps that explains why lots of people drift to the right as they get older, they have more past and, as a result, are not so influenced by propaganda.0 -
Putting politics aside, are you currently playing, "The Elder Scrolls - On Line"?Morris_Dancer said:Important news (well, for some): Dragon Age: Inquisition has a release date of 7th October. Rather looking forward to it, particularly as it's my only guaranteed pre-order this year.
It'll be out for PS3, PS4, Xbox 360, Xbox One and PC. There is a pre-order DLC bonus, apparently, but no pre-order DLC companion (which I loathe).0 -
Nigel believes he is better than us. He has said so. Why doubt him?corporeal said:
Out of curiosity Nigel, you really believe that? I mean really?nigel4england said:
Not sure about the selfishness bit but otherwise spot on.SouthamObserver said:
Didn't we all realise this a while back? Those on the left are driven by envy, hatred, elitism and selfishness. They are hypocrites who think and act irrationally, loathe the white working class, Britain and British history. People on the right are just better than them.Neil said:Things I learned on pbc today: lefties are truly terrible, terrible people but righties are far too lovely to hate them for this.
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I must admit that the mindset of someone who is appalled by Clegg but thinks Ed is the answer to the nations problems is baffling.JBriskin said:Oops - I forgot to talk about the thread header. I don't like LD>Lab switchers - a mixture of fickle and spiteful with added Ed M fandom.
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Mr. K, no. As well as not playing games on my PC I've also heard it's a bit of a let down.The approach to races seems designed to piss people off.0
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Now you'll be able to follow PB will still driving your car
http://www.greenprophet.com/2014/04/driverless-tesla-electric-car-will-test-run-on-israels-better-place-grid/0 -
Or just plain experience. When you realise there are some constants in life and very few people or parties can escape them however they package it.corporeal said:
Mr Llama, I think they are less influenced by events of the time, but they are influenced by a lifetime of propaganda.HurstLlama said:
Mr. Corporeal,corporeal said:
I think voting is far more an emotional decision than that. And that the past does play a lot into it.Charles said:
May be I'm too much of an optimist, but I like to think that when the General Election comes around the type of people who vote also take the time to think carefully about why they vote the way they do/HurstLlama said:
I am not sure it would matter, Mr. Charles. UKIP are prospering as a repository for protest. If they can articulate the concerns of the people who feel ignored by the main parties then UKIP will continue to suck up votes and members.Charles said:
Do they have a solution though? Or even a coherent policy?taffys said:What's interesting about the UKIP posters is that they have avoided topics that might have garnered them more support than the ones they chose namely;-
1. pressure on housing
2. pressure on the NHS
3. pressure on schools
It's less a question of 'do I agree with your manifesto', more 'what kind of person am I, and what kind of party do I think you are'. The sort of identity questions that get forged over long term political experience, influenced by recent events but also by past events.
Tactical voting etc overlays that. But that base question of identity is what drives voting most.
Perhaps that explains why lots of people drift to the right as they get older, they have more past and, as a result, are not so influenced by propaganda.0 -
Far from it SO, I joined PB not just for betting stuff but also to learn. I have certainly done that and will continue to do so.SouthamObserver said:
Nigel believes he is better than us. He has said so. Why doubt him?corporeal said:
Out of curiosity Nigel, you really believe that? I mean really?nigel4england said:
Not sure about the selfishness bit but otherwise spot on.SouthamObserver said:
Didn't we all realise this a while back? Those on the left are driven by envy, hatred, elitism and selfishness. They are hypocrites who think and act irrationally, loathe the white working class, Britain and British history. People on the right are just better than them.Neil said:Things I learned on pbc today: lefties are truly terrible, terrible people but righties are far too lovely to hate them for this.
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Not really. They are just projecting fantasies on to a different fantasy figure this time around. What they want is someone to tell them everything can be made wonderful without actually having to do any of that tricky stuff like reforming welfare or cutting spending. Clearly that is incompatible with voting for a politician in government.TGOHF said:
I must admit that the mindset of someone who is appalled by Clegg but thinks Ed is the answer to the nations problems is baffling.JBriskin said:Oops - I forgot to talk about the thread header. I don't like LD>Lab switchers - a mixture of fickle and spiteful with added Ed M fandom.
Their rapidly-acquired hatred for Miliband, if (God forbid) he does actually end up PM, will be a sight to behold. See François Hollande for a foretaste.0 -
Heh. That'll end well...MikeSmithson said:Now you'll be able to follow PB will still driving your car
http://www.greenprophet.com/2014/04/driverless-tesla-electric-car-will-test-run-on-israels-better-place-grid/
"Warning Joisas Jessop: you should take control of the car."
"No, I'm arguing with someone."
"Josias Jessop, take control of the car."
"Hang on, someone's just said Brown was the best PM ever!"
"That does not compute..."
"And that Ed Miliband might be even better!"
"System error... system error..."
"Now Nigel Farage's complained about these immigrant computerised AIs stealing the jobs of hard-working chauffeurs..."
"System crash... system crash..."
"Now they're saying Cameron's wearing a baseball cap whilst wearing a pearly king jacket."
"System pleb... system pleb..."
"And I'm now mentioning HS2..."
It'd be the first case of computer sentiency, followed rapidly by the first case of computer suicide.0 -
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Appears that I'm the only one getting excited about the football on the normal TV (in the last half hour anyway) - getting into the spirit of things I have done my own research and can tell you all that Chelsea are 4/1 on Betfair. I'm still looking for a fun bet.0
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Eh, propaganda just means 'things my opponents say'.Pulpstar said:@Corporeal
Difficult to get away from propaganda from both the left and the right.0 -
Labour reveal a cunning stunt to transform Gibraltar's relations with Spain:
Whilst I've travelled twice to the island in the last six months, unfortunately no Foreign Office Minister has visited the island since the Chief Minister Fabian Picardo formed his administration in 2011.
That's why Labour is calling for a Foreign Office Minister to visit the island as soon as possible to witness first hand the unnecessary delays and disruption to travellers trying to cross the border.
Gareth Thomas MP Shadow Minister for Europe and Deputy Shadow Minister for London
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/gareth-thomas/gibraltar-foreign-office_b_5161380.html
He'll be visiting the isthmus of Guernsey next.....0 -
Was just told to check the F1 and I can tell you that I can slightly recommend Vettel at 11/1 for the championship.0
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That Robinson interview with Farage is jolly good fun - especially hammering him on thinking everything is a joke - bet we see that approach wheeled out again for Nigel.
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Google tells me there's a Gibraltar island in Ohio, and that Gibraltar manages to sneak its way into the "Island games". But generally seems convinced that it's connected to Spain.CarlottaVance said:Labour reveal a cunning stunt to transform Gibraltar's relations with Spain:
Whilst I've travelled twice to the island in the last six months, unfortunately no Foreign Office Minister has visited the island since the Chief Minister Fabian Picardo formed his administration in 2011.
That's why Labour is calling for a Foreign Office Minister to visit the island as soon as possible to witness first hand the unnecessary delays and disruption to travellers trying to cross the border.
Gareth Thomas MP Shadow Minister for Europe and Deputy Shadow Minister for London
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/gareth-thomas/gibraltar-foreign-office_b_5161380.html
Maybe advocating for a moat?0 -
Wow - Kimi 200/1 - I might have some of that.0
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It's an effective rebuttal to his usual bluster - I suspect others will have watched and learned....TGOHF said:That Robinson interview with Farage is jolly good fun - especially hammering him on thinking everything is a joke - bet we see that approach wheeled out again for Nigel.
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Farage: "launching our national campaign in Sheffield is a statement of intention" [to target the old labour vote in the north]
http://www.thestar.co.uk/news/local/video-farage-launches-ukip-campaign-in-sheffield-1-65740640 -
Yes, I'm one of them. In the past I've voted Conservative, Liberal Democrat, Green and for independent candidates - all of those I'd consider voting for again if given a good enough reason to in the future.SouthamObserver said:
My guess is that there are plenty of voters who refuse to countenance voting Labour and always have done. FPTP encourages that kind of approach.
On the other hand I would never consider voting for Labour or for UKIP. In the case of UKIP it's a perfectly rational dislike as I fundamentally disagree with what they stand for. In the case of Labour it's a completely irrational, historical, dislike in as much as I would be perfectly willing to give consideration (alongside Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, Greens etc) to voting for a party that occupied exactly the same political ground as Labour does but I'll never be able to stomach voting for Labour even if I were to find myself agreeing with 100% of their policies!
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Broon is on his feet - Better Together tweet: GB: what we have created over the last century is... a union based on pooling and sharing resources
Just a century......I could swear the Union was older then that.....0 -
And I'm On. C'mon Kimi! - Looks like I just became a Ferrari fan for the first time in my life.0
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http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/oxfam-warns-bedroom-tax-benefits-3440624corporeal said:
Eh, propaganda just means 'things my opponents say'.Pulpstar said:@Corporeal
Difficult to get away from propaganda from both the left and the right.
Top charity Oxfam said the government’s welfare cap and Bedroom Tax were to blame for much of the misery.
'Third party technique' is particularly prevalent amongst Newspapers.
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The fall out from Northern Rock continues:
http://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/11163583.Grant_making_body_Northern_Rock_Foundation_to_close_after_Virgin_Money_funding_talks_end/?ref=var_00 -
Fiddling crime stats surely has to be propaganda?Pulpstar said:
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/oxfam-warns-bedroom-tax-benefits-3440624corporeal said:
Eh, propaganda just means 'things my opponents say'.Pulpstar said:@Corporeal
Difficult to get away from propaganda from both the left and the right.
Top charity Oxfam said the government’s welfare cap and Bedroom Tax were to blame for much of the misery.
'Third party technique' is particularly prevalent amongst Newspapers.
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2013/dec/18/police-crime-figures-manipulation-chief-inspector0 -
I'm really looking forward to it' I'm a Chelsea fan and will be watching from behind the sofa. Back Atletico at 1.85 and sell multi corners at 25JBriskin said:Appears that I'm the only one getting excited about the football on the normal TV (in the last half hour anyway) - getting into the spirit of things I have done my own research and can tell you all that Chelsea are 4/1 on Betfair. I'm still looking for a fun bet.
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Mr. Briskin, I'd be wary, to be honest.
I can't see anyone but Mercedes battling it out amongst themselves. You may be able to hedge the Vettel and Raikkonen bets, however.
Nobody will be able to close up because, as well as the Silver Arrows being in another league, there's a chasing pack, not one single contender to try and contest the title with Mercedes. So they'll take points off of each other, much like in 2011 when Vettel won by a ridiculous margin.0 -
Kipper Nuttal having a mare on R5..0
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Just to connect tonight's game to the main theme of the discussion. I'm a leftie who suffers from that same irrational and visceral loathing of the tory party so astutely identified below. However, there is one person I find even more repellent than Thatcher - and that is Jose Mourinho, so I'll be supporting Atletico all the way.JBriskin said:Appears that I'm the only one getting excited about the football on the normal TV (in the last half hour anyway) - getting into the spirit of things I have done my own research and can tell you all that Chelsea are 4/1 on Betfair. I'm still looking for a fun bet.
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RE:LDs
After the 2011 local elections, which is presumably when these people had switched, I seem to recall the analysis saying that while Labour had won a lot of extra council seats, they were in the wrong places for a general election win. They became more dominant in Labour leaning areas, rather than gaining footholds in tory/LD areas that they needed to win in 2015.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_20110 -
"Northern Rock Foundation’s mission is, and always has been, to target its funds to areas of work where there is a significant social need and a lack of resources.CarlottaVance said:The fall out from Northern Rock continues:
http://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/11163583.Grant_making_body_Northern_Rock_Foundation_to_close_after_Virgin_Money_funding_talks_end/?ref=var_0
"After careful consideration the Foundation’s trustees felt these ideas either duplicated the work of others or weren’t aimed at priority areas of need, and therefore were not the best use of the Foundation’s funds.
I am impressed with the Trustees' decision. It's a very sensible approach - there are too many grant making bodies that exist in some kind of wilderness and spend too much on overhead.
Branson, not so much. He's a selfish taker.
Probably voted Labour as well. Before he became a tax exile.
(NB: that last bit was added for SouthamObserver's benefit)0 -
Wouldn't be surprised, given that Sir Alan Sugar does ...Charles said:
"Northern Rock Foundation’s mission is, and always has been, to target its funds to areas of work where there is a significant social need and a lack of resources.CarlottaVance said:The fall out from Northern Rock continues:
http://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/11163583.Grant_making_body_Northern_Rock_Foundation_to_close_after_Virgin_Money_funding_talks_end/?ref=var_0
"After careful consideration the Foundation’s trustees felt these ideas either duplicated the work of others or weren’t aimed at priority areas of need, and therefore were not the best use of the Foundation’s funds.
I am impressed with the Trustees' decision. It's a very sensible approach - there are too many grant making bodies that exist in some kind of wilderness and spend too much on overhead.
Branson, not so much. He's a selfish taker.
Probably voted Labour as well. Before he became a tax exile.
(NB: that last bit was added for SouthamObserver's benefit)0 -
Thanks Thomas and Nigel - unfortunately because my Gf can hear me I have to cancel the fun bet (I just had one on the F1 anyway...) and do the exact opposite of what both of you are saying and just support team Britain
Or
Anyway - football on tv yay!0 -
Morris - I haven't bet on Vettel yet. My thinking is best driver in second best car is often a winning combo.0
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Mr. Briskin, depends. Vettel had the best car in 2011 and 2013. In 2010 it was more evenly matched, and in 2012 the McLaren was the fastest, generally, but had very bad reliability.
The car matters more than the driver.0 -
And this be law, that I'll maintain until my dying day, sirCharles said:
Branson, not so much. He's a selfish taker.CarlottaVance said:The fall out from Northern Rock continues:
http://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/11163583.Grant_making_body_Northern_Rock_Foundation_to_close_after_Virgin_Money_funding_talks_end/?ref=var_0
Probably voted Labour as well. Before he became a tax exile.
That whatsoever king may reign, Still I'll be the Vicar of Bray, sir.
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Clearly, history didn't exist before the formation of the Labour Party. Our very own Year Zero.....CarlottaVance said:Broon is on his feet - Better Together tweet: GB: what we have created over the last century is... a union based on pooling and sharing resources
Just a century......I could swear the Union was older then that.....0 -
Morris - Yeah, it's probably just a matter of my age that I think that way because of the Schumi-Benneton combo. Anyway, I've got 3 weeks to think about it + read your blog 0
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Mike has been writing about this many many times. The LD's have held onto their votes reasonably well in CON-LD marginals. Why would Red LD's switch here ? They are not daft.anotherDave said:RE:LDs
After the 2011 local elections, which is presumably when these people had switched, I seem to recall the analysis saying that while Labour had won a lot of extra council seats, they were in the wrong places for a general election win. They became more dominant in Labour leaning areas, rather than gaining footholds in tory/LD areas that they needed to win in 2015.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_20110 -
Mr. Briskin, I didn't pay quite so much attention until a few years ago, but Alonso nearly took the title in 2012 without the best car, and in 2006, I think, Schumacher's Ferrari was better but less reliable.
Mind you, Raikkonen got it in 2007, when McLaren contrived to lose it.0 -
SO - what do you think re my bet on the next Spurs Manager?
Incidentally I've bet on Wenger for the Man U job too ...0 -
So they're not going to win any new seats for Labour then. They'll just have bigger majorities in their already safe seats.surbiton said:
Mike has been writing about this many many times. The LD's have held onto their votes reasonably well in CON-LD marginals. Why would Red LD's switch here ? They are not daft.anotherDave said:RE:LDs
After the 2011 local elections, which is presumably when these people had switched, I seem to recall the analysis saying that while Labour had won a lot of extra council seats, they were in the wrong places for a general election win. They became more dominant in Labour leaning areas, rather than gaining footholds in tory/LD areas that they needed to win in 2015.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2011
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Mr Dancer, I still hold to Alonso as the best driver of his era, is my position at all defensible (I've sort of drifted away from watching F1).Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Briskin, I didn't pay quite so much attention until a few years ago, but Alonso nearly took the title in 2012 without the best car, and in 2006, I think, Schumacher's Ferrari was better but less reliable.
Mind you, Raikkonen got it in 2007, when McLaren contrived to lose it.0 -
Morris - You've come up with more data to support my theory! I went to Silverstone in 93 (my only grand prix) as a child to give you an indication of my age.0
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Neil asks " Surely we could do this research on pbc? We've got loads of 2010 LDs who have switched to Lab here."
I'm one of them so you can add me to the 10 in the focus group.
I'm a lifelong liberal activist (not an ex Labour voter) who voted LibDem in 2010 who has switched to Labour.
The reason wasn't the coalition (I supported it and still do) but the takeover of the leadership of the party by neo-liberals (Clegg, Alexander, Laws etc) who believe in marketising public servcies with internal markets, fake choice and competition and ultimately privatisation. It showed in the student fees fiasco - done for ideological reasons not financial, - and the extraordinary initial acceptance of Lansley's NHS bill, plus the switch from Keynes to austerity over a weekend "because of Greece". I feel betrayed and will not vote for the LibDems while Clegg is still leader.
Having said that, I will vote LibDems in the Euro and local elections, and I would vote LibDem if I was in a constituency with a LibDem MP to help deny the Torys a seat. In all other seats I would vote Labour including this one. My certainty to vote is 10/10.
I suspect many exLibDems will do the same as me and vote for incumbant LibDem MPs but not elsewhere. That is why I expect the LibDems to retain 40+ seats in spite of the dire polling.
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Re: Con-LD marginals.surbiton said:
Mike has been writing about this many many times. The LD's have held onto their votes reasonably well in CON-LD marginals. Why would Red LD's switch here ? They are not daft.anotherDave said:RE:LDs
After the 2011 local elections, which is presumably when these people had switched, I seem to recall the analysis saying that while Labour had won a lot of extra council seats, they were in the wrong places for a general election win. They became more dominant in Labour leaning areas, rather than gaining footholds in tory/LD areas that they needed to win in 2015.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2011
The only one we've seen is Eastleigh. The LD vote declined 2010: 47% > 2013: 32%, and the most recent poll has it falling further to 27%.
http://survation.com/still-a-3-way-marginal-new-polling-in-eastleigh-constituency-survation-for-alan-bown/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eastleigh_by-election,_2013
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Mr. Corporeal, drift back! This season's been a bit topsy-turvy but well worth watching.
I think that's a perfectly defensible position. Most would've said Vettel, Alonso and Hamilton (in any order) but I suspect Vettel's reputation is getting a knocking of late. There's also Schumacher, who overlapped somewhat with Alonso.
Mr. Briskin, never been to a race, myself. I suspect I'd hate it (I'm not fond of loud noises or crowds). Who won in '93?0 -
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So they will hold onto your vote in 2015?surbiton said:
Mike has been writing about this many many times. The LD's have held onto their votes reasonably well in CON-LD marginals. Why would Red LD's switch here ? They are not daft.anotherDave said:RE:LDs
After the 2011 local elections, which is presumably when these people had switched, I seem to recall the analysis saying that while Labour had won a lot of extra council seats, they were in the wrong places for a general election win. They became more dominant in Labour leaning areas, rather than gaining footholds in tory/LD areas that they needed to win in 2015.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2011
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[the takeover of the leadership of the party by neo-liberals]
They're called orange bookers! Cus they wrote an orange book. Best Marketing Ever.0 -
Liberalism used to be about limiting the power of the state, not extending it.0
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Eh, in terms of a book that was only ever going to be read by political nerds however you marketed it, calling it "The Orange book" made sense from a political history reference approach.JBriskin said:[the takeover of the leadership of the party by neo-liberals]
They're called orange bookers! Cus they wrote an orange book. Best Marketing Ever.0 -
Liberalism used to be about limiting the power of the state, not extending it.
It's got 3 meanings-
Barnesian's Liberalism
Thatcher's Liberal economics
And Liberal = left wing in America
Perhaps you mean another as well and it's got 4.
I'm getting confused now. I blame that political compass thing.
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I think you may have thrown your money away! It's a shame that Spurs will probably now miss out on LVG. I suspect we'll end up with either the bloke from Southampton or de Boer.Scrapheap_as_was said:SO - what do you think re my bet on the next Spurs Manager?
Incidentally I've bet on Wenger for the Man U job too ...
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[I think that's a perfectly defensible position. Most would've said Vettel, Alonso and Hamilton (in any order) but I suspect Vettel's reputation is getting a knocking of late. There's also Schumacher, who overlapped somewhat with Alonso.]
It was Schumi then Vettel for me.
Prost won in 93, Hill went out with engine failure and I got to see Senna. All Good.0 -
You define yourself as 'liberal' , but the platform you align with is not the liberal part of the liberal democrats, but the SDP part of the the lib dems. The part that played no part in the old liberal party, and the part that are leaving the lib dems now.Barnesian said:Neil asks " Surely we could do this research on pbc? We've got loads of 2010 LDs who have switched to Lab here."
I'm one of them so you can add me to the 10 in the focus group.
I'm a lifelong liberal activist (not an ex Labour voter) who voted LibDem in 2010 who has switched to Labour.
The reason wasn't the coalition (I supported it and still do) but the takeover of the leadership of the party by neo-liberals (Clegg, Alexander, Laws etc) who believe in marketising public servcies with internal markets, fake choice and competition and ultimately privatisation. It showed in the student fees fiasco - done for ideological reasons not financial, - and the extraordinary initial acceptance of Lansley's NHS bill, plus the switch from Keynes to austerity over a weekend "because of Greece". I feel betrayed and will not vote for the LibDems while Clegg is still leader.
Having said that, I will vote LibDems in the Euro and local elections, and I would vote LibDem if I was in a constituency with a LibDem MP to help deny the Torys a seat. In all other seats I would vote Labour including this one. My certainty to vote is 10/10.
I suspect many exLibDems will do the same as me and vote for incumbant LibDem MPs but not elsewhere. That is why I expect the LibDems to retain 40+ seats in spite of the dire polling.
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Apologies Corporeal, I haven't read it - I was just trying to be fun. Regardless they are running the Westminster party now.0
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You obviously weren't paying attention. Admittedly the LibDem messaging was all over the place, but the most detailed set of proposals before the election were from Vince Cable, no less, in his September 2009 paper for Reform, and were hardly a rejection of 'austerity':Barnesian said:plus the switch from Keynes to austerity over a weekend "because of Greece".
http://www.libdemvoice.org/vince-launches-new-lib-dem-proposals-tackling-the-fiscal-crisis-16149.html
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JBriskin says "Liberalism used to be about limiting the power of the state, not extending it.
It's got 3 meanings"
It's got more than three - see http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/liberalism/
The key to me is liberty - freedom. Personal freedom (no nanny state or surveillance), freedom to personally develop and prosper ( not kept back by being born into a poor family) freedom from oppression (law and order) and free trade.
Neo-liberalism takes this to extremes and applies it inappropriately - gun ownership, tea party politics, privatising public services (including natural monopolies such as water, roads and railways, electricity). The Orange Bookers are not tea party fanatics but they are ideologically driven to marketise public services (as was Blair).
I voted LibDem in 2010 because I was against the interfering nannyism of Labour (plus illegal wars and Blairism), and against the basic greed and lack of empathy of Tories. The libDems offered the best of personal freedom combined with social justice (a trade-off I know).
EdM seems to have turned his back on Blairism (that's appealing) and is personally brave (Murdoch, Syria, Uniosn etc). He has my vote for the time being.
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Mr Briskin, you should investigate Berlin's "The two liberties" and Rawls "Theory of Justice" (or whatever the updated title was).JBriskin said:Liberalism used to be about limiting the power of the state, not extending it.
It's got 3 meanings-
Barnesian's Liberalism
Thatcher's Liberal economics
And Liberal = left wing in America
Perhaps you mean another as well and it's got 4.
I'm getting confused now. I blame that political compass thing.
They build upon John Stuart Mill's work on liberalism, links it in to positive liberty and provides the backbone to a lot of modern liberal thinking.
The Orange book was a reference to David Lloyd George, he wrote a number of books on policy in the 20s (The yellow book, the green book etc). So the 'Orange book' refers to him. Not all contributors to it are considered orange bookers (Vince Cable for example) but it came to be a term applied to be a term for the neo liberals.0 -
Sorry Barnesian - I'm literally getting too excited by the football (I'm a bit of a saddo) to properly reply (I'll do it after or tomorrow morning.) I'll just say, for now, that that wasn't my quote it was DrSpyn's (I was being lazy with formatting) and that I studied "positive" liberty and "negative" liberty in my philosophy OU course and I found it very confusing.0
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Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft 2m
Can anyone give me a link to the Conservative Party immigration poster used by Michael Howard /Lynton Crosby in the 2005 General Election.0 -
"Not being kept back by being born into a poor family"
lol - anyone who lets the govt of the day stand in their way was going nowhere anyway..0 -
Corporeal - I studied parts of the Berlin and Rawls you mention via the OU. I'm just out of practise. I'll be better in a week I promise 0
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Notme says "You define yourself as 'liberal' , but the platform you align with is not the liberal part of the liberal democrats, but the SDP part of the the lib dems. The part that played no part in the old liberal party, and the part that are leaving the lib dems now."
Oddly enough I was a Liberal (not an SDPer) who was involved in bringing together the Alliance and then the LibDem Party. The LibDem party that attracted 23% of the vote offered something of value - a balance of freedom and social justice.
A Liberal Party without the social justice will struggle to attract 10%. You might as well vote Tory - look at Jeremy Browne. And the Labour Party will take back the SDPers and ex-Liberals like me who also favour social justice, and understand that applying internal market principles to public services is just blind incompetence.0 -
The twentieth century redefinition of liberalism resembles the late medieval and early modern redefinition of republicanism. In both cases, the original meaning of the term is the better.0
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Freedom to parachute the ex PMs son into a safe seat - its laughable nonsense - Richard N is spot on - project the nonsense in their head onto the latest idiot.0
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The only political party officially opposed to HS2 is UKIP.
Up and down the HS2 route in the shires, traditional Conservative supporters will be voting UKIP and funding UKIP.
Northerners are not going to switch to Conservative because of HS2.
What hs happened to the Conservative's political nouse?
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Perhaps they might be in favour of the project because it's the right thing to do?David_Evershed said:The only political party officially opposed to HS2 is UKIP.
Up and down the HS2 route in the shires, traditional Conservative supporters will be voting UKIP and funding UKIP.
Northerners are not going to switch to Conservative because of HS2.
What hs happened to the Conservative's political nouse?0 -
Meh - Ukip would be against the chunnel and the Olympics - they hate progress.David_Evershed said:The only political party officially opposed to HS2 is UKIP.
Up and down the HS2 route in the shires, traditional Conservative supporters will be voting UKIP and funding UKIP.
Northerners are not going to switch to Conservative because of HS2.
What hs happened to the Conservative's political nouse?0 -
Excellent, thank you Morris. Coinicides with the chance to hear Nick Clegg's speech at the LibDem conference, I see. Tough choice.Morris_Dancer said:Important news (well, for some): Dragon Age: Inquisition has a release date of 7th October. Rather looking forward to it, particularly as it's my only guaranteed pre-order this year.
It'll be out for PS3, PS4, Xbox 360, Xbox One and PC. There is a pre-order DLC bonus, apparently, but no pre-order DLC companion (which I loathe).
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Those 20,000 majorities will be cut to 15,000. David Cameron will be distraught.David_Evershed said:The only political party officially opposed to HS2 is UKIP.
Up and down the HS2 route in the shires, traditional Conservative supporters will be voting UKIP and funding UKIP.
Northerners are not going to switch to Conservative because of HS2.
What hs happened to the Conservative's political nouse?0 -
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@David_Evershed
'The only political party officially opposed to HS2 is UKIP.'
The only political party that doesn't understand there is a shortage of capacity or just opportunism?
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Or because it gives journalists the opportunity to raise questions over the UKIP "restore train liveries" policy?john_zims said:@David_Evershed
'The only political party officially opposed to HS2 is UKIP.'
The only political party that doesn't understand there is a shortage of capacity or just opportunism?
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@john_zims
Yes, how else will all those serfs get down to "Lunnun" to serve their masters without it.
The ones who can't afford the rent and get shipped off to the northern colonies by the local housing dept.0 -
Well, that question is easily answered:john_zims said:@David_Evershed
'The only political party officially opposed to HS2 is UKIP.'
The only political party that doesn't understand there is a shortage of capacity or just opportunism?
The 2010 [UKIP] manifesto claimed that the party would “invest in three new 200mph plus high-speed rail lines, including a new line between London and Newcastle with a spur to Manchester, a London-Bristol-Exeter line and a linking route via Birmingham”. Plans were also suggesting a high-speed rail service “to London, the UK and the Continent” from a new airport in the Thames Estuary.
http://lichfieldlive.co.uk/2014/02/13/lichfield-mp-releases-deleted-ukip-manifesto-in-hs2-row/
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Barnesian, you pop in once in a while and expound good thoughts.Barnesian said:Notme says "You define yourself as 'liberal' , but the platform you align with is not the liberal part of the liberal democrats, but the SDP part of the the lib dems. The part that played no part in the old liberal party, and the part that are leaving the lib dems now."
Oddly enough I was a Liberal (not an SDPer) who was involved in bringing together the Alliance and then the LibDem Party. The LibDem party that attracted 23% of the vote offered something of value - a balance of freedom and social justice.
A Liberal Party without the social justice will struggle to attract 10%. You might as well vote Tory - look at Jeremy Browne. And the Labour Party will take back the SDPers and ex-Liberals like me who also favour social justice, and understand that applying internal market principles to public services is just blind incompetence.
Unlike you , my natural party is Labour. From a selfish point of view, the worst party for me would be Labour yet I support them. Whilst, I have no problem with anyone earning as much as they can legally, I equally believe they should pay into society enough so that no one should fall below a minimum line. Otherwise, we would not be able to live in a fair and just society.
Ironically, in general elections, I cannot vote Labour living where I live, as I am too "political" !
I need come close to becoming a Liberal Democrat. In 2005 [ when I was not living in a CON-LD marginal ], I voted for Charles Kennedy. His position on Iraq had swayed my opinion hugely. Mind you, it wasn't too difficult. Blair was leading Labour.0 -
A new UKIP poster?
Hilarious! RT @UkipBillboards Just gone up in Manchester #ukip pic.twitter.com/ynC5IzECRI
— Jonni Berger (@jonnibgood) April 22, 20140 -
"Social justice", like "social science" and "social history", is a classic case of an adjective negating the noun it describes.Barnesian said:The LibDem party that attracted 23% of the vote offered something of value - a balance of freedom and social justice...
A Liberal Party without the social justice will struggle to attract 10%. You might as well vote Tory - look at Jeremy Browne.0 -
What is Ukip train strategy - a return to good old fashioned steam run on british coal shovelled by a british poor person ?
with a british porter to carry Nige's trunk to the steamer en route to Rangoon ?0 -
@CarlottaVance
'Or because it gives journalists the opportunity to raise questions over the UKIP "restore train liveries" policy?'
Restoring train liveries and mandatory uniforms for taxi drivers might just swing my vote.0 -
OGH It is not actually the 2010 LD to Lab voters who will decide GE 2015, they are social democrats returning home. The key voters in 2015 are the 10-15% of 2010 LDs who are now voting Tory and the 45% of UKIP voters who voted Tory in 2010. If both those groups vote for Cameron in 2015 the Tories will be the largest party and should win most seats even if not one LD to Labour switcher returns home!0
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For example, in 1979 Jim Callaghan got 36% of the vote, about what Miliband is now polling, before the SDP split the left-wing vote. The Liberals, then much as now undiluted by social democrats, got 13% and Thatcher got 43%0
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Richard, do you think the Tory party will always oppose the 3rd runway in Heathrow ? If they do change, will you quote the 2010 Tory manifesto ?Richard_Nabavi said:
Well, that question is easily answered:john_zims said:@David_Evershed
'The only political party officially opposed to HS2 is UKIP.'
The only political party that doesn't understand there is a shortage of capacity or just opportunism?
The 2010 [UKIP] manifesto claimed that the party would “invest in three new 200mph plus high-speed rail lines, including a new line between London and Newcastle with a spur to Manchester, a London-Bristol-Exeter line and a linking route via Birmingham”. Plans were also suggesting a high-speed rail service “to London, the UK and the Continent” from a new airport in the Thames Estuary.
http://lichfieldlive.co.uk/2014/02/13/lichfield-mp-releases-deleted-ukip-manifesto-in-hs2-row/0 -
When Mr Robinson met Mr Farage:
NR: You don't think anyone's capable of doing that job? [being Farage's secretary, a role performed by his wife]
NF: What, of marrying me?
NR: No. Of doing the job of your secretary.
NF: I don't know anyone who would work those hours, no.
NR: So that's it. It's clear - UKIP do not believe that any British person is capable of being the secretary of their leader?
NF: That's nonsense and you know it.
NR: You just said it!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-271161100 -
Fair point. They got into a bit of a mess over that one. Politicians, eh? They're all the same, as Nigel Farage keeps reminding us, omitting only to remember that he is one too..surbiton said:Richard, do you think the Tory party will always oppose the 3rd runway in Heathrow ? If they do change, will you quote the 2010 Tory manifesto ?
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Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft 20m
Isn't the current @ukip immigration posters reminiscent of the Michael Howard/Lynton Crosby 2005 posters on the same subject? #glasshouses0 -
Don't forget the national taxi shortage in UKIP's brave new world, due to most of the taxi drivers I come across being immigrants ...john_zims said:@CarlottaVance
'Or because it gives journalists the opportunity to raise questions over the UKIP "restore train liveries" policy?'
Restoring train liveries and mandatory uniforms for taxi drivers might just swing my vote.0
