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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » At last somebody is studying the voters who could decide GE2015
The first post-holiday weekend Populus poll has very little change though the LAB lead moves from 1% to 3% – all within the margin of error. LAB 36 +1, CON 33 -1, LD 10 +1, UKIP 13 -1.
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http://www.icmresearch.com/data/media/pdf/Scotsman_april_2014.pdf
Highlands and Islands Yes 60%.
If you take yes as a roughly correlating proxy for SNP votes then that looks good for the SNP in Inverness.
The SNP are retaining 85% of their 2011 support, but for those that do switch UKIP is the preferred choice. (5% of 2011 SNP)
page 37, table 19
Two points jumped out.
(1) The young woman at the beginning on why she voted LibDem. "Gordon Brown looked very tired, defeated. The other alternative was the Conservatives. Nick Clegg just seemed fresher." I intepreted that as the Tories being seen as not very exciting / not 'fresh'. In any event, she didn't have a good reason as to why she didn't vote Tory - she just didn't consider them (although she did at the end say she would consider Green, so is clearly an anti-Brown leftie)
(2) It was difficult to work out how many participants there were given the cutting, but in the certainty to vote stats I counted 3x10, 3x9, 2x8, 1x6, 1x1 and think I missed a couple. Let's assume though that the "1" and the "6" and one of the "8s" don't vote Labour (I recall that someone said previously that it's only really the 10s who you can really count on). That could imply that 25-30% of the RedDem vote is flaky.
Adjusting for that it would basically put Labour and the Tories as level pegging. Which would mean the election result would be down to (1) GOTV/marginals (2) Tory attracting UKIP back without losing too many centrists
Feels to me that this confirms its all to play for*
* Subject to a risk of confirmation bias, of course
And these DNV'ers are weighted up from 181 to 309 (people lying to pollsters about their sense of civic duty? Who'd have thunk it.)
Part 1 is what I often talk about re:news stories. It's rarely individual stories themselves, it's a contribution to an overall perception etc.
http://www.icmresearch.com/data/media/pdf/2014_march_indyref4.pdf
p.37 table 19
UKIP have increased their share of:
2011 Con 13%>22%, 2011 Lab 3%>7%, 2011 LD 4% > 8%, 2011 SNP 3% > 5%.
Think 92 when you think of 15, an unpopular Labour Party slightly ahead in the polls with a track record of being crap.
Red Liberals versus stop Labour. Immovable object, unstoppable force.
Stalemate.
Far too many in the sample said they voted
It seems that the Lib Dem switchers to Labour are against the Lib Dems being in coalition with Conservatives rather than against Lib Dem policies or governance.
Some 2010 Lib Dem voters will have seen Lib Dem as Labour lite. In the focus groups a number of switchers said if they didn't vote Labour then they would vote Green. So perhaps the Greens are seen as Labour lite even though their policies are perhaps more socialist than are Labour's.
Whilst Lib Dems have shed their Labour lite image (which party wants to be defined by the opposition anyway?) they don't yet seem to have recruited centrist Conservatives.
Perhaps the Lib Dems need a relaunch as the Liberal Party, dropping the Social Democrats who have already left. Clegg, Alexander, Laws, Browne all fit the Liberal rather than Social Democrat direction.
Getting heckled from bystanders didn't help, but I though he could have been a bit more straightforward in some answers
Yes, it was a long one 15 mins I think.
http://www.scotsman.com/news/martin-boon-a-pollster-entering-uncharted-waters-1-3382088
If the polls say 'Yes' but Scotland votes 'No' - we probably know why already:
Secondly, we do “weight” our data to ensure it reflects a representative sample of Scots, both in terms of demographic profile, and political balance. In the case of the latter, we tie the data to the 2011 Holyrood election result. But the net effect of both these procedures has been to lift the power of SNP voter voices in the poll – and hence it follows, as you might expect, the power of the Yes voters themselves.
http://www.live.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27115043
Does anyone understand the difference between mass uncontrolled immigration and selective immigration except UKIP?
And media types who lament the ‘protectionist’ nature of Ukip rather ignore the fact that their jobs in the media are automatically protected from foreign competition because they require culturally specific skills; the BBC is not going to sack the Today team and replace them with some guys from Bangalore, however well they read English. That’s partly why people in the media are overwhelming in favour of globalisation.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/04/the-ukip-posters-will-offend-more-londoners-than-eastern-europeans/
But people don't compare themselves to previous generations as much as they compare themselves to each other, and indirectly to the lot of fat cats, gravy train politicians etc. etc.
There's also a lack of a sense of national (or international) purpose - insomuch as there is one, it's probably the environmental agenda, which tends to take as its starting point the idea that we've f*cked everything up.
As NPXMP points out with some acuity, the Cons are loathed by a large proportion of the electorate. Not just loathed, but LOATHED. It simply would not occur to such a person to vote Conservative.
Look at her phrasing "...the other alternative was the Conservatives"...needs no qualification: simply out of the question.
He would probably be a Kipper if alive now, although might have been pro gay marriage
twitter.com/eilidhmac/status/458538999121215488/photo/1
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2569845/RICHARD-RITCHIE-Why-Enoch-Powell-wouldnt-vote-Ukip-former-private-secretary.htm
Probably wise of the purples to spread their fire, and try to make a vote *for* UKIP a positive thing.
1. pressure on housing
2. pressure on the NHS
3. pressure on schools
"UKIP’s posters will run in two waves over the next four weeks and will be displayed on hundreds of prime billboard sites right across the country. There will also be many thousands of digital ads carried by news, entertainment and listings websites."
http://www.ukip.org/ukip_has_just_launched_its_biggest_ever_advertising_campaign
Twitter seems to almost entirely exist of people which think they are both funnier, and morally superior to the great uneducated masses.
40 years later, an almost identical choice faces the British people, and this time Powell’s advice would have the opposite effect to that of four decades ago. This time, the party offering a referendum is the Conservative Party.
unless he considered Ukip capable of forming a majority in the House of Commons (which is highly improbable) he would regard a vote in its favour, especially at a General Election, as a wasted vote."
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2569845/RICHARD-RITCHIE-Why-Enoch-Powell-wouldnt-vote-Ukip-former-private-secretary.html
UKIP have the right enemies, so they must be Good Eggs!
[NB I usually post F1 article links there, amongst other things].
twitter.com/oflynndirector/status/458601415276265472
Ha!
The right thinks the left are a bunch of hopelessly incompetent dreamers.
The left, however, tends (or at least is prone) to have a visceral hatred of the right and seems to believe that the right truly, actually is evil.
The right therefore, and in the face of such a view, has come to see itself as a beacon of moderation and reasonableness. Which in turn has lead some of us to see ourselves as saintly and wonderful and not able to put a foot wrong.
Needless to say this latter development is a view not without flaws.
Except when it relates to me, that is.
So far,the Tories have tried to out-UkiP UkiP on immigration.That hasn't worked and the only further right wing position is Powell's old territory,hopefully off-limits to even Lynton Crosby.
Could we see a switch in the Tory strategy to start selling the benefits of immigration as simply pointing to a referendum which may never happen won't settle the issue either?
The Tories thought immigration was a massive weapon with which to beat Labour but have ended up equally blameworthy and the direction of travel will inflame their own right and harden Ukip's grip on these voters.
I recall from articles at the time that house prices needed to drop 50% from the 2007 peak to return to long term trend. They didn't, certainly not in the SE, and now they are growing quickly again. This is, I think, madness socially and economically.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/peteroborne/100268487/honest-work-cant-put-a-roof-over-our-heads-true-conservatives-should-be-appalled/
Ah I see.
So we can expect to see posters with queues outside the GP's surgery etc....??
What one reads on Twitter depends on who one has decided to follow. Maybe you need to look at your "Following" list.
Colour me skeptical of that nostalgic consensus then, and compared to when? The 80s weren't exactly a friendly political era.
Oh.
The Left truly is the Home of Hate.
"Twitter seems to almost entirely exist of people which think they are both funnier, and morally superior to the great uneducated masses."
Indeed. There's an odd sort of pomposity exhibited by a group of (predominantly but not always) left wing luvvie people that always grates.
Am I the only one to think that Stephen Fry, Russell Brand and Eddie Izzard are not the greatest people that have ever lived? Or am I just a bad person?
edit: hmmh - on reflection, what do people think about SKOM as an abbreviation... feels like it has potential...
I firmly disagree with that consensus, I think it's just an easy thing to say without a real evidential basis.
Well, that was just my recollection, and it must be said I'm enormously tired at the moment so I could have misremembered.
This is the biggest problem facing all parties right now. Oborne correctly points out that with the cost of a home as is is, people simply cannot 'get on', no matter how hard they work.
We can increase supply, we can make the market less attractive to foreigners, we can bin stamp duty for starter homes.
Fact is, the stability which being an island and having ten centuries of upholding the rights of the property holder offers is being grossly undervalued
But yes, when I see a post querying whether the LD->Lab voters will actually turn out, I think of people like this. They'll generally vote anti-Tory come hell or high water, and if Cameron is to be saved, the salvation will need to come from elsewhere.
Now if we can just can the distorting effect of benefits on society we can get the Empire back on track.
Best case you probably will keep 80% of the LD10 defectors. I would say - based on today - you are more likely to be at 70-75%. And you really think there will be no change between now and next May?
It's less a question of 'do I agree with your manifesto', more 'what kind of person am I, and what kind of party do I think you are'. The sort of identity questions that get forged over long term political experience, influenced by recent events but also by past events.
Tactical voting etc overlays that. But that base question of identity is what drives voting most.
It'll be out for PS3, PS4, Xbox 360, Xbox One and PC. There is a pre-order DLC bonus, apparently, but no pre-order DLC companion (which I loathe).
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27115043
http://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/themes/5308a93901925b5b09000002/attachments/original/1398167812/EuroManifestoMarch.pdf
As I've said before, I think traditional Lab AND Con turnout is much more iffy than this group.