Link doesn't work. Do you know the thrust of the content?
"Forty years ago this week, in the hope of leaving the European Economic Community, Enoch Powell urged the country to vote in the General Election for the political party which would offer a referendum.
40 years later, an almost identical choice faces the British people, and this time Powell’s advice would have the opposite effect to that of four decades ago. This time, the party offering a referendum is the Conservative Party.
unless he considered Ukip capable of forming a majority in the House of Commons (which is highly improbable) he would regard a vote in its favour, especially at a General Election, as a wasted vote."
Absurd and totally irrelevant. How the hell would Richard Ritchie know what the ghost of Enoch Powell would or wouldn't do? It's all a political rant against UKIP and it aint going to work.
But of the 10 responses I caught on the video, there were 6 rated 9/10, 2 8s, a 6 and a 1. (10 being most likely to vote Labour).
Best case you probably will keep 80% of the LD10 defectors. I would say - based on today - you are more likely to be at 70-75%. And you really think there will be no change between now and next May?
Well, two answers to that. First, 70-80% of any cohort is pretty good - if you interview 10 people in any group, you'll find one who isn't going to bother. Second,we're dancing on the head of a pin - 20% of 5%. You think we might lose 1% of the total vote with this current support. Perhaps.
As I've said before, I think traditional Lab AND Con turnout is much more iffy than this group.
But don't forget that you keep telling us that this group is more active and aware and committed than everyone else. And we are talking about 8% - so if you lose 1-2% vote share then it basically means you are level pegging with the Tories *at a point when UKIP is riding high*.
What's interesting about the UKIP posters is that they have avoided topics that might have garnered them more support than the ones they chose namely;- 1. pressure on housing 2. pressure on the NHS 3. pressure on schools
Do they have a solution though? Or even a coherent policy?
I am not sure it would matter, Mr. Charles. UKIP are prospering as a repository for protest. If they can articulate the concerns of the people who feel ignored by the main parties then UKIP will continue to suck up votes and members.
May be I'm too much of an optimist, but I like to think that when the General Election comes around the type of people who vote also take the time to think carefully about why they vote the way they do/
I think voting is far more an emotional decision than that. And that the past does play a lot into it.
It's less a question of 'do I agree with your manifesto', more 'what kind of person am I, and what kind of party do I think you are'. The sort of identity questions that get forged over long term political experience, influenced by recent events but also by past events.
Tactical voting etc overlays that. But that base question of identity is what drives voting most.
Mr. Corporeal,
Perhaps that explains why lots of people drift to the right as they get older, they have more past and, as a result, are not so influenced by propaganda.
Things I learned on pbc today: lefties are truly terrible, terrible people but righties are far too lovely to hate them for this.
Didn't we all realise this a while back? Those on the left are driven by envy, hatred, elitism and selfishness. They are hypocrites who think and act irrationally, loathe the white working class, Britain and British history. People on the right are just better than them.
Not sure about the selfishness bit but otherwise spot on.
Out of curiosity Nigel, you really believe that? I mean really?
No, of course not, just on the wind up.
I know I come across as some right wing nut job but as I have said before I cannot stand tribal politics, I find it both childish and tedious.
I could find good things to say about all the parties, but on a personal note I want out of the EU and I passionately believe in grammar schools, so UKIP suit me best. I also detest the liberal elite from the main parties, in addition I don't like the sinister Common Purpose or Bildenburg groups.
As well as fitting with my two wishes outlined above a vote for UKIP is also a shot across the bows of the so called elite.
What's interesting about the UKIP posters is that they have avoided topics that might have garnered them more support than the ones they chose namely;- 1. pressure on housing 2. pressure on the NHS 3. pressure on schools
Do they have a solution though? Or even a coherent policy?
I am not sure it would matter, Mr. Charles. UKIP are prospering as a repository for protest. If they can articulate the concerns of the people who feel ignored by the main parties then UKIP will continue to suck up votes and members.
May be I'm too much of an optimist, but I like to think that when the General Election comes around the type of people who vote also take the time to think carefully about why they vote the way they do/
I think voting is far more an emotional decision than that. And that the past does play a lot into it.
It's less a question of 'do I agree with your manifesto', more 'what kind of person am I, and what kind of party do I think you are'. The sort of identity questions that get forged over long term political experience, influenced by recent events but also by past events.
Tactical voting etc overlays that. But that base question of identity is what drives voting most.
Mr. Corporeal,
Perhaps that explains why lots of people drift to the right as they get older, they have more past and, as a result, are not so influenced by propaganda.
Mr Llama, I think they are less influenced by events of the time, but they are influenced by a lifetime of propaganda.
Important news (well, for some): Dragon Age: Inquisition has a release date of 7th October. Rather looking forward to it, particularly as it's my only guaranteed pre-order this year.
It'll be out for PS3, PS4, Xbox 360, Xbox One and PC. There is a pre-order DLC bonus, apparently, but no pre-order DLC companion (which I loathe).
Putting politics aside, are you currently playing, "The Elder Scrolls - On Line"?
Things I learned on pbc today: lefties are truly terrible, terrible people but righties are far too lovely to hate them for this.
Didn't we all realise this a while back? Those on the left are driven by envy, hatred, elitism and selfishness. They are hypocrites who think and act irrationally, loathe the white working class, Britain and British history. People on the right are just better than them.
Not sure about the selfishness bit but otherwise spot on.
Out of curiosity Nigel, you really believe that? I mean really?
Nigel believes he is better than us. He has said so. Why doubt him?
What's interesting about the UKIP posters is that they have avoided topics that might have garnered them more support than the ones they chose namely;- 1. pressure on housing 2. pressure on the NHS 3. pressure on schools
Do they have a solution though? Or even a coherent policy?
I am not sure it would matter, Mr. Charles. UKIP are prospering as a repository for protest. If they can articulate the concerns of the people who feel ignored by the main parties then UKIP will continue to suck up votes and members.
May be I'm too much of an optimist, but I like to think that when the General Election comes around the type of people who vote also take the time to think carefully about why they vote the way they do/
I think voting is far more an emotional decision than that. And that the past does play a lot into it.
It's less a question of 'do I agree with your manifesto', more 'what kind of person am I, and what kind of party do I think you are'. The sort of identity questions that get forged over long term political experience, influenced by recent events but also by past events.
Tactical voting etc overlays that. But that base question of identity is what drives voting most.
Mr. Corporeal,
Perhaps that explains why lots of people drift to the right as they get older, they have more past and, as a result, are not so influenced by propaganda.
Mr Llama, I think they are less influenced by events of the time, but they are influenced by a lifetime of propaganda.
Or just plain experience. When you realise there are some constants in life and very few people or parties can escape them however they package it.
Things I learned on pbc today: lefties are truly terrible, terrible people but righties are far too lovely to hate them for this.
Didn't we all realise this a while back? Those on the left are driven by envy, hatred, elitism and selfishness. They are hypocrites who think and act irrationally, loathe the white working class, Britain and British history. People on the right are just better than them.
Not sure about the selfishness bit but otherwise spot on.
Out of curiosity Nigel, you really believe that? I mean really?
Nigel believes he is better than us. He has said so. Why doubt him?
Far from it SO, I joined PB not just for betting stuff but also to learn. I have certainly done that and will continue to do so.
Oops - I forgot to talk about the thread header. I don't like LD>Lab switchers - a mixture of fickle and spiteful with added Ed M fandom.
I must admit that the mindset of someone who is appalled by Clegg but thinks Ed is the answer to the nations problems is baffling.
Not really. They are just projecting fantasies on to a different fantasy figure this time around. What they want is someone to tell them everything can be made wonderful without actually having to do any of that tricky stuff like reforming welfare or cutting spending. Clearly that is incompatible with voting for a politician in government.
Their rapidly-acquired hatred for Miliband, if (God forbid) he does actually end up PM, will be a sight to behold. See François Hollande for a foretaste.
"Warning Joisas Jessop: you should take control of the car." "No, I'm arguing with someone." "Josias Jessop, take control of the car." "Hang on, someone's just said Brown was the best PM ever!" "That does not compute..." "And that Ed Miliband might be even better!" "System error... system error..." "Now Nigel Farage's complained about these immigrant computerised AIs stealing the jobs of hard-working chauffeurs..." "System crash... system crash..." "Now they're saying Cameron's wearing a baseball cap whilst wearing a pearly king jacket." "System pleb... system pleb..." "And I'm now mentioning HS2..."
It'd be the first case of computer sentiency, followed rapidly by the first case of computer suicide.
Appears that I'm the only one getting excited about the football on the normal TV (in the last half hour anyway) - getting into the spirit of things I have done my own research and can tell you all that Chelsea are 4/1 on Betfair. I'm still looking for a fun bet.
Labour reveal a cunning stunt to transform Gibraltar's relations with Spain:
Whilst I've travelled twice to the island in the last six months, unfortunately no Foreign Office Minister has visited the island since the Chief Minister Fabian Picardo formed his administration in 2011.
That's why Labour is calling for a Foreign Office Minister to visit the island as soon as possible to witness first hand the unnecessary delays and disruption to travellers trying to cross the border.
Gareth Thomas MP Shadow Minister for Europe and Deputy Shadow Minister for London
That Robinson interview with Farage is jolly good fun - especially hammering him on thinking everything is a joke - bet we see that approach wheeled out again for Nigel.
Labour reveal a cunning stunt to transform Gibraltar's relations with Spain:
Whilst I've travelled twice to the island in the last six months, unfortunately no Foreign Office Minister has visited the island since the Chief Minister Fabian Picardo formed his administration in 2011.
That's why Labour is calling for a Foreign Office Minister to visit the island as soon as possible to witness first hand the unnecessary delays and disruption to travellers trying to cross the border.
Gareth Thomas MP Shadow Minister for Europe and Deputy Shadow Minister for London
Google tells me there's a Gibraltar island in Ohio, and that Gibraltar manages to sneak its way into the "Island games". But generally seems convinced that it's connected to Spain.
That Robinson interview with Farage is jolly good fun - especially hammering him on thinking everything is a joke - bet we see that approach wheeled out again for Nigel.
It's an effective rebuttal to his usual bluster - I suspect others will have watched and learned....
My guess is that there are plenty of voters who refuse to countenance voting Labour and always have done. FPTP encourages that kind of approach.
Yes, I'm one of them. In the past I've voted Conservative, Liberal Democrat, Green and for independent candidates - all of those I'd consider voting for again if given a good enough reason to in the future.
On the other hand I would never consider voting for Labour or for UKIP. In the case of UKIP it's a perfectly rational dislike as I fundamentally disagree with what they stand for. In the case of Labour it's a completely irrational, historical, dislike in as much as I would be perfectly willing to give consideration (alongside Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, Greens etc) to voting for a party that occupied exactly the same political ground as Labour does but I'll never be able to stomach voting for Labour even if I were to find myself agreeing with 100% of their policies!
Appears that I'm the only one getting excited about the football on the normal TV (in the last half hour anyway) - getting into the spirit of things I have done my own research and can tell you all that Chelsea are 4/1 on Betfair. I'm still looking for a fun bet.
I'm really looking forward to it' I'm a Chelsea fan and will be watching from behind the sofa. Back Atletico at 1.85 and sell multi corners at 25
I can't see anyone but Mercedes battling it out amongst themselves. You may be able to hedge the Vettel and Raikkonen bets, however.
Nobody will be able to close up because, as well as the Silver Arrows being in another league, there's a chasing pack, not one single contender to try and contest the title with Mercedes. So they'll take points off of each other, much like in 2011 when Vettel won by a ridiculous margin.
Appears that I'm the only one getting excited about the football on the normal TV (in the last half hour anyway) - getting into the spirit of things I have done my own research and can tell you all that Chelsea are 4/1 on Betfair. I'm still looking for a fun bet.
Just to connect tonight's game to the main theme of the discussion. I'm a leftie who suffers from that same irrational and visceral loathing of the tory party so astutely identified below. However, there is one person I find even more repellent than Thatcher - and that is Jose Mourinho, so I'll be supporting Atletico all the way.
RE:LDs After the 2011 local elections, which is presumably when these people had switched, I seem to recall the analysis saying that while Labour had won a lot of extra council seats, they were in the wrong places for a general election win. They became more dominant in Labour leaning areas, rather than gaining footholds in tory/LD areas that they needed to win in 2015.
"Northern Rock Foundation’s mission is, and always has been, to target its funds to areas of work where there is a significant social need and a lack of resources.
"After careful consideration the Foundation’s trustees felt these ideas either duplicated the work of others or weren’t aimed at priority areas of need, and therefore were not the best use of the Foundation’s funds.
I am impressed with the Trustees' decision. It's a very sensible approach - there are too many grant making bodies that exist in some kind of wilderness and spend too much on overhead.
Branson, not so much. He's a selfish taker.
Probably voted Labour as well. Before he became a tax exile.
(NB: that last bit was added for SouthamObserver's benefit)
"Northern Rock Foundation’s mission is, and always has been, to target its funds to areas of work where there is a significant social need and a lack of resources.
"After careful consideration the Foundation’s trustees felt these ideas either duplicated the work of others or weren’t aimed at priority areas of need, and therefore were not the best use of the Foundation’s funds.
I am impressed with the Trustees' decision. It's a very sensible approach - there are too many grant making bodies that exist in some kind of wilderness and spend too much on overhead.
Branson, not so much. He's a selfish taker.
Probably voted Labour as well. Before he became a tax exile.
(NB: that last bit was added for SouthamObserver's benefit)
Wouldn't be surprised, given that Sir Alan Sugar does ...
Thanks Thomas and Nigel - unfortunately because my Gf can hear me I have to cancel the fun bet (I just had one on the F1 anyway...) and do the exact opposite of what both of you are saying and just support team Britain
Mr. Briskin, depends. Vettel had the best car in 2011 and 2013. In 2010 it was more evenly matched, and in 2012 the McLaren was the fastest, generally, but had very bad reliability.
Morris - Yeah, it's probably just a matter of my age that I think that way because of the Schumi-Benneton combo. Anyway, I've got 3 weeks to think about it + read your blog
RE:LDs After the 2011 local elections, which is presumably when these people had switched, I seem to recall the analysis saying that while Labour had won a lot of extra council seats, they were in the wrong places for a general election win. They became more dominant in Labour leaning areas, rather than gaining footholds in tory/LD areas that they needed to win in 2015.
Mike has been writing about this many many times. The LD's have held onto their votes reasonably well in CON-LD marginals. Why would Red LD's switch here ? They are not daft.
Mr. Briskin, I didn't pay quite so much attention until a few years ago, but Alonso nearly took the title in 2012 without the best car, and in 2006, I think, Schumacher's Ferrari was better but less reliable.
Mind you, Raikkonen got it in 2007, when McLaren contrived to lose it.
RE:LDs After the 2011 local elections, which is presumably when these people had switched, I seem to recall the analysis saying that while Labour had won a lot of extra council seats, they were in the wrong places for a general election win. They became more dominant in Labour leaning areas, rather than gaining footholds in tory/LD areas that they needed to win in 2015.
Mike has been writing about this many many times. The LD's have held onto their votes reasonably well in CON-LD marginals. Why would Red LD's switch here ? They are not daft.
So they're not going to win any new seats for Labour then. They'll just have bigger majorities in their already safe seats.
Mr. Briskin, I didn't pay quite so much attention until a few years ago, but Alonso nearly took the title in 2012 without the best car, and in 2006, I think, Schumacher's Ferrari was better but less reliable.
Mind you, Raikkonen got it in 2007, when McLaren contrived to lose it.
Mr Dancer, I still hold to Alonso as the best driver of his era, is my position at all defensible (I've sort of drifted away from watching F1).
Morris - You've come up with more data to support my theory! I went to Silverstone in 93 (my only grand prix) as a child to give you an indication of my age.
Neil asks " Surely we could do this research on pbc? We've got loads of 2010 LDs who have switched to Lab here."
I'm one of them so you can add me to the 10 in the focus group.
I'm a lifelong liberal activist (not an ex Labour voter) who voted LibDem in 2010 who has switched to Labour.
The reason wasn't the coalition (I supported it and still do) but the takeover of the leadership of the party by neo-liberals (Clegg, Alexander, Laws etc) who believe in marketising public servcies with internal markets, fake choice and competition and ultimately privatisation. It showed in the student fees fiasco - done for ideological reasons not financial, - and the extraordinary initial acceptance of Lansley's NHS bill, plus the switch from Keynes to austerity over a weekend "because of Greece". I feel betrayed and will not vote for the LibDems while Clegg is still leader.
Having said that, I will vote LibDems in the Euro and local elections, and I would vote LibDem if I was in a constituency with a LibDem MP to help deny the Torys a seat. In all other seats I would vote Labour including this one. My certainty to vote is 10/10.
I suspect many exLibDems will do the same as me and vote for incumbant LibDem MPs but not elsewhere. That is why I expect the LibDems to retain 40+ seats in spite of the dire polling.
RE:LDs After the 2011 local elections, which is presumably when these people had switched, I seem to recall the analysis saying that while Labour had won a lot of extra council seats, they were in the wrong places for a general election win. They became more dominant in Labour leaning areas, rather than gaining footholds in tory/LD areas that they needed to win in 2015.
Mike has been writing about this many many times. The LD's have held onto their votes reasonably well in CON-LD marginals. Why would Red LD's switch here ? They are not daft.
Re: Con-LD marginals. The only one we've seen is Eastleigh. The LD vote declined 2010: 47% > 2013: 32%, and the most recent poll has it falling further to 27%.
Mr. Corporeal, drift back! This season's been a bit topsy-turvy but well worth watching.
I think that's a perfectly defensible position. Most would've said Vettel, Alonso and Hamilton (in any order) but I suspect Vettel's reputation is getting a knocking of late. There's also Schumacher, who overlapped somewhat with Alonso.
Mr. Briskin, never been to a race, myself. I suspect I'd hate it (I'm not fond of loud noises or crowds). Who won in '93?
RE:LDs After the 2011 local elections, which is presumably when these people had switched, I seem to recall the analysis saying that while Labour had won a lot of extra council seats, they were in the wrong places for a general election win. They became more dominant in Labour leaning areas, rather than gaining footholds in tory/LD areas that they needed to win in 2015.
Mike has been writing about this many many times. The LD's have held onto their votes reasonably well in CON-LD marginals. Why would Red LD's switch here ? They are not daft.
[the takeover of the leadership of the party by neo-liberals]
They're called orange bookers! Cus they wrote an orange book. Best Marketing Ever.
Eh, in terms of a book that was only ever going to be read by political nerds however you marketed it, calling it "The Orange book" made sense from a political history reference approach.
SO - what do you think re my bet on the next Spurs Manager?
Incidentally I've bet on Wenger for the Man U job too ...
I think you may have thrown your money away! It's a shame that Spurs will probably now miss out on LVG. I suspect we'll end up with either the bloke from Southampton or de Boer.
[I think that's a perfectly defensible position. Most would've said Vettel, Alonso and Hamilton (in any order) but I suspect Vettel's reputation is getting a knocking of late. There's also Schumacher, who overlapped somewhat with Alonso.]
It was Schumi then Vettel for me.
Prost won in 93, Hill went out with engine failure and I got to see Senna. All Good.
Neil asks " Surely we could do this research on pbc? We've got loads of 2010 LDs who have switched to Lab here."
I'm one of them so you can add me to the 10 in the focus group.
I'm a lifelong liberal activist (not an ex Labour voter) who voted LibDem in 2010 who has switched to Labour.
The reason wasn't the coalition (I supported it and still do) but the takeover of the leadership of the party by neo-liberals (Clegg, Alexander, Laws etc) who believe in marketising public servcies with internal markets, fake choice and competition and ultimately privatisation. It showed in the student fees fiasco - done for ideological reasons not financial, - and the extraordinary initial acceptance of Lansley's NHS bill, plus the switch from Keynes to austerity over a weekend "because of Greece". I feel betrayed and will not vote for the LibDems while Clegg is still leader.
Having said that, I will vote LibDems in the Euro and local elections, and I would vote LibDem if I was in a constituency with a LibDem MP to help deny the Torys a seat. In all other seats I would vote Labour including this one. My certainty to vote is 10/10.
I suspect many exLibDems will do the same as me and vote for incumbant LibDem MPs but not elsewhere. That is why I expect the LibDems to retain 40+ seats in spite of the dire polling.
You define yourself as 'liberal' , but the platform you align with is not the liberal part of the liberal democrats, but the SDP part of the the lib dems. The part that played no part in the old liberal party, and the part that are leaving the lib dems now.
plus the switch from Keynes to austerity over a weekend "because of Greece".
You obviously weren't paying attention. Admittedly the LibDem messaging was all over the place, but the most detailed set of proposals before the election were from Vince Cable, no less, in his September 2009 paper for Reform, and were hardly a rejection of 'austerity':
The key to me is liberty - freedom. Personal freedom (no nanny state or surveillance), freedom to personally develop and prosper ( not kept back by being born into a poor family) freedom from oppression (law and order) and free trade.
Neo-liberalism takes this to extremes and applies it inappropriately - gun ownership, tea party politics, privatising public services (including natural monopolies such as water, roads and railways, electricity). The Orange Bookers are not tea party fanatics but they are ideologically driven to marketise public services (as was Blair).
I voted LibDem in 2010 because I was against the interfering nannyism of Labour (plus illegal wars and Blairism), and against the basic greed and lack of empathy of Tories. The libDems offered the best of personal freedom combined with social justice (a trade-off I know).
EdM seems to have turned his back on Blairism (that's appealing) and is personally brave (Murdoch, Syria, Uniosn etc). He has my vote for the time being.
Liberalism used to be about limiting the power of the state, not extending it.
It's got 3 meanings-
Barnesian's Liberalism Thatcher's Liberal economics And Liberal = left wing in America
Perhaps you mean another as well and it's got 4.
I'm getting confused now. I blame that political compass thing.
Mr Briskin, you should investigate Berlin's "The two liberties" and Rawls "Theory of Justice" (or whatever the updated title was).
They build upon John Stuart Mill's work on liberalism, links it in to positive liberty and provides the backbone to a lot of modern liberal thinking.
The Orange book was a reference to David Lloyd George, he wrote a number of books on policy in the 20s (The yellow book, the green book etc). So the 'Orange book' refers to him. Not all contributors to it are considered orange bookers (Vince Cable for example) but it came to be a term applied to be a term for the neo liberals.
Sorry Barnesian - I'm literally getting too excited by the football (I'm a bit of a saddo) to properly reply (I'll do it after or tomorrow morning.) I'll just say, for now, that that wasn't my quote it was DrSpyn's (I was being lazy with formatting) and that I studied "positive" liberty and "negative" liberty in my philosophy OU course and I found it very confusing.
Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft 2m Can anyone give me a link to the Conservative Party immigration poster used by Michael Howard /Lynton Crosby in the 2005 General Election.
Notme says "You define yourself as 'liberal' , but the platform you align with is not the liberal part of the liberal democrats, but the SDP part of the the lib dems. The part that played no part in the old liberal party, and the part that are leaving the lib dems now."
Oddly enough I was a Liberal (not an SDPer) who was involved in bringing together the Alliance and then the LibDem Party. The LibDem party that attracted 23% of the vote offered something of value - a balance of freedom and social justice.
A Liberal Party without the social justice will struggle to attract 10%. You might as well vote Tory - look at Jeremy Browne. And the Labour Party will take back the SDPers and ex-Liberals like me who also favour social justice, and understand that applying internal market principles to public services is just blind incompetence.
The twentieth century redefinition of liberalism resembles the late medieval and early modern redefinition of republicanism. In both cases, the original meaning of the term is the better.
Freedom to parachute the ex PMs son into a safe seat - its laughable nonsense - Richard N is spot on - project the nonsense in their head onto the latest idiot.
Important news (well, for some): Dragon Age: Inquisition has a release date of 7th October. Rather looking forward to it, particularly as it's my only guaranteed pre-order this year.
It'll be out for PS3, PS4, Xbox 360, Xbox One and PC. There is a pre-order DLC bonus, apparently, but no pre-order DLC companion (which I loathe).
Excellent, thank you Morris. Coinicides with the chance to hear Nick Clegg's speech at the LibDem conference, I see. Tough choice.
Yes, how else will all those serfs get down to "Lunnun" to serve their masters without it. The ones who can't afford the rent and get shipped off to the northern colonies by the local housing dept.
'The only political party officially opposed to HS2 is UKIP.'
The only political party that doesn't understand there is a shortage of capacity or just opportunism?
Well, that question is easily answered:
The 2010 [UKIP] manifesto claimed that the party would “invest in three new 200mph plus high-speed rail lines, including a new line between London and Newcastle with a spur to Manchester, a London-Bristol-Exeter line and a linking route via Birmingham”. Plans were also suggesting a high-speed rail service “to London, the UK and the Continent” from a new airport in the Thames Estuary.
Notme says "You define yourself as 'liberal' , but the platform you align with is not the liberal part of the liberal democrats, but the SDP part of the the lib dems. The part that played no part in the old liberal party, and the part that are leaving the lib dems now."
Oddly enough I was a Liberal (not an SDPer) who was involved in bringing together the Alliance and then the LibDem Party. The LibDem party that attracted 23% of the vote offered something of value - a balance of freedom and social justice.
A Liberal Party without the social justice will struggle to attract 10%. You might as well vote Tory - look at Jeremy Browne. And the Labour Party will take back the SDPers and ex-Liberals like me who also favour social justice, and understand that applying internal market principles to public services is just blind incompetence.
Barnesian, you pop in once in a while and expound good thoughts.
Unlike you , my natural party is Labour. From a selfish point of view, the worst party for me would be Labour yet I support them. Whilst, I have no problem with anyone earning as much as they can legally, I equally believe they should pay into society enough so that no one should fall below a minimum line. Otherwise, we would not be able to live in a fair and just society.
Ironically, in general elections, I cannot vote Labour living where I live, as I am too "political" !
I need come close to becoming a Liberal Democrat. In 2005 [ when I was not living in a CON-LD marginal ], I voted for Charles Kennedy. His position on Iraq had swayed my opinion hugely. Mind you, it wasn't too difficult. Blair was leading Labour.
OGH It is not actually the 2010 LD to Lab voters who will decide GE 2015, they are social democrats returning home. The key voters in 2015 are the 10-15% of 2010 LDs who are now voting Tory and the 45% of UKIP voters who voted Tory in 2010. If both those groups vote for Cameron in 2015 the Tories will be the largest party and should win most seats even if not one LD to Labour switcher returns home!
For example, in 1979 Jim Callaghan got 36% of the vote, about what Miliband is now polling, before the SDP split the left-wing vote. The Liberals, then much as now undiluted by social democrats, got 13% and Thatcher got 43%
'The only political party officially opposed to HS2 is UKIP.'
The only political party that doesn't understand there is a shortage of capacity or just opportunism?
Well, that question is easily answered:
The 2010 [UKIP] manifesto claimed that the party would “invest in three new 200mph plus high-speed rail lines, including a new line between London and Newcastle with a spur to Manchester, a London-Bristol-Exeter line and a linking route via Birmingham”. Plans were also suggesting a high-speed rail service “to London, the UK and the Continent” from a new airport in the Thames Estuary.
Richard, do you think the Tory party will always oppose the 3rd runway in Heathrow ? If they do change, will you quote the 2010 Tory manifesto ?
Fair point. They got into a bit of a mess over that one. Politicians, eh? They're all the same, as Nigel Farage keeps reminding us, omitting only to remember that he is one too..
Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft 20m Isn't the current @ukip immigration posters reminiscent of the Michael Howard/Lynton Crosby 2005 posters on the same subject? #glasshouses
Comments
That's not a great starting position a year out.
Perhaps that explains why lots of people drift to the right as they get older, they have more past and, as a result, are not so influenced by propaganda.
I know I come across as some right wing nut job but as I have said before I cannot stand tribal politics, I find it both childish and tedious.
I could find good things to say about all the parties, but on a personal note I want out of the EU and I passionately believe in grammar schools, so UKIP suit me best. I also detest the liberal elite from the main parties, in addition I don't like the sinister Common Purpose or Bildenburg groups.
As well as fitting with my two wishes outlined above a vote for UKIP is also a shot across the bows of the so called elite.
http://www.greenprophet.com/2014/04/driverless-tesla-electric-car-will-test-run-on-israels-better-place-grid/
Their rapidly-acquired hatred for Miliband, if (God forbid) he does actually end up PM, will be a sight to behold. See François Hollande for a foretaste.
"Warning Joisas Jessop: you should take control of the car."
"No, I'm arguing with someone."
"Josias Jessop, take control of the car."
"Hang on, someone's just said Brown was the best PM ever!"
"That does not compute..."
"And that Ed Miliband might be even better!"
"System error... system error..."
"Now Nigel Farage's complained about these immigrant computerised AIs stealing the jobs of hard-working chauffeurs..."
"System crash... system crash..."
"Now they're saying Cameron's wearing a baseball cap whilst wearing a pearly king jacket."
"System pleb... system pleb..."
"And I'm now mentioning HS2..."
It'd be the first case of computer sentiency, followed rapidly by the first case of computer suicide.
Difficult to get away from propaganda from both the left and the right.
Whilst I've travelled twice to the island in the last six months, unfortunately no Foreign Office Minister has visited the island since the Chief Minister Fabian Picardo formed his administration in 2011.
That's why Labour is calling for a Foreign Office Minister to visit the island as soon as possible to witness first hand the unnecessary delays and disruption to travellers trying to cross the border.
Gareth Thomas MP Shadow Minister for Europe and Deputy Shadow Minister for London
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/gareth-thomas/gibraltar-foreign-office_b_5161380.html
He'll be visiting the isthmus of Guernsey next.....
Maybe advocating for a moat?
http://www.thestar.co.uk/news/local/video-farage-launches-ukip-campaign-in-sheffield-1-6574064
On the other hand I would never consider voting for Labour or for UKIP. In the case of UKIP it's a perfectly rational dislike as I fundamentally disagree with what they stand for. In the case of Labour it's a completely irrational, historical, dislike in as much as I would be perfectly willing to give consideration (alongside Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, Greens etc) to voting for a party that occupied exactly the same political ground as Labour does but I'll never be able to stomach voting for Labour even if I were to find myself agreeing with 100% of their policies!
Just a century......I could swear the Union was older then that.....
Top charity Oxfam said the government’s welfare cap and Bedroom Tax were to blame for much of the misery.
'Third party technique' is particularly prevalent amongst Newspapers.
http://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/11163583.Grant_making_body_Northern_Rock_Foundation_to_close_after_Virgin_Money_funding_talks_end/?ref=var_0
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2013/dec/18/police-crime-figures-manipulation-chief-inspector
I can't see anyone but Mercedes battling it out amongst themselves. You may be able to hedge the Vettel and Raikkonen bets, however.
Nobody will be able to close up because, as well as the Silver Arrows being in another league, there's a chasing pack, not one single contender to try and contest the title with Mercedes. So they'll take points off of each other, much like in 2011 when Vettel won by a ridiculous margin.
After the 2011 local elections, which is presumably when these people had switched, I seem to recall the analysis saying that while Labour had won a lot of extra council seats, they were in the wrong places for a general election win. They became more dominant in Labour leaning areas, rather than gaining footholds in tory/LD areas that they needed to win in 2015.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_2011
"After careful consideration the Foundation’s trustees felt these ideas either duplicated the work of others or weren’t aimed at priority areas of need, and therefore were not the best use of the Foundation’s funds.
I am impressed with the Trustees' decision. It's a very sensible approach - there are too many grant making bodies that exist in some kind of wilderness and spend too much on overhead.
Branson, not so much. He's a selfish taker.
Probably voted Labour as well. Before he became a tax exile.
(NB: that last bit was added for SouthamObserver's benefit)
Or
Anyway - football on tv yay!
The car matters more than the driver.
That whatsoever king may reign, Still I'll be the Vicar of Bray, sir.
Mind you, Raikkonen got it in 2007, when McLaren contrived to lose it.
Incidentally I've bet on Wenger for the Man U job too ...
I'm one of them so you can add me to the 10 in the focus group.
I'm a lifelong liberal activist (not an ex Labour voter) who voted LibDem in 2010 who has switched to Labour.
The reason wasn't the coalition (I supported it and still do) but the takeover of the leadership of the party by neo-liberals (Clegg, Alexander, Laws etc) who believe in marketising public servcies with internal markets, fake choice and competition and ultimately privatisation. It showed in the student fees fiasco - done for ideological reasons not financial, - and the extraordinary initial acceptance of Lansley's NHS bill, plus the switch from Keynes to austerity over a weekend "because of Greece". I feel betrayed and will not vote for the LibDems while Clegg is still leader.
Having said that, I will vote LibDems in the Euro and local elections, and I would vote LibDem if I was in a constituency with a LibDem MP to help deny the Torys a seat. In all other seats I would vote Labour including this one. My certainty to vote is 10/10.
I suspect many exLibDems will do the same as me and vote for incumbant LibDem MPs but not elsewhere. That is why I expect the LibDems to retain 40+ seats in spite of the dire polling.
The only one we've seen is Eastleigh. The LD vote declined 2010: 47% > 2013: 32%, and the most recent poll has it falling further to 27%.
http://survation.com/still-a-3-way-marginal-new-polling-in-eastleigh-constituency-survation-for-alan-bown/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eastleigh_by-election,_2013
I think that's a perfectly defensible position. Most would've said Vettel, Alonso and Hamilton (in any order) but I suspect Vettel's reputation is getting a knocking of late. There's also Schumacher, who overlapped somewhat with Alonso.
Mr. Briskin, never been to a race, myself. I suspect I'd hate it (I'm not fond of loud noises or crowds). Who won in '93?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-27118875
They're called orange bookers! Cus they wrote an orange book. Best Marketing Ever.
It's got 3 meanings-
Barnesian's Liberalism
Thatcher's Liberal economics
And Liberal = left wing in America
Perhaps you mean another as well and it's got 4.
I'm getting confused now. I blame that political compass thing.
It was Schumi then Vettel for me.
Prost won in 93, Hill went out with engine failure and I got to see Senna. All Good.
http://www.libdemvoice.org/vince-launches-new-lib-dem-proposals-tackling-the-fiscal-crisis-16149.html
It's got 3 meanings"
It's got more than three - see http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/liberalism/
The key to me is liberty - freedom. Personal freedom (no nanny state or surveillance), freedom to personally develop and prosper ( not kept back by being born into a poor family) freedom from oppression (law and order) and free trade.
Neo-liberalism takes this to extremes and applies it inappropriately - gun ownership, tea party politics, privatising public services (including natural monopolies such as water, roads and railways, electricity). The Orange Bookers are not tea party fanatics but they are ideologically driven to marketise public services (as was Blair).
I voted LibDem in 2010 because I was against the interfering nannyism of Labour (plus illegal wars and Blairism), and against the basic greed and lack of empathy of Tories. The libDems offered the best of personal freedom combined with social justice (a trade-off I know).
EdM seems to have turned his back on Blairism (that's appealing) and is personally brave (Murdoch, Syria, Uniosn etc). He has my vote for the time being.
They build upon John Stuart Mill's work on liberalism, links it in to positive liberty and provides the backbone to a lot of modern liberal thinking.
The Orange book was a reference to David Lloyd George, he wrote a number of books on policy in the 20s (The yellow book, the green book etc). So the 'Orange book' refers to him. Not all contributors to it are considered orange bookers (Vince Cable for example) but it came to be a term applied to be a term for the neo liberals.
Can anyone give me a link to the Conservative Party immigration poster used by Michael Howard /Lynton Crosby in the 2005 General Election.
lol - anyone who lets the govt of the day stand in their way was going nowhere anyway..
Oddly enough I was a Liberal (not an SDPer) who was involved in bringing together the Alliance and then the LibDem Party. The LibDem party that attracted 23% of the vote offered something of value - a balance of freedom and social justice.
A Liberal Party without the social justice will struggle to attract 10%. You might as well vote Tory - look at Jeremy Browne. And the Labour Party will take back the SDPers and ex-Liberals like me who also favour social justice, and understand that applying internal market principles to public services is just blind incompetence.
http://youtu.be/_xhXIGplfDo
Con EU maj. nailed on then?
Up and down the HS2 route in the shires, traditional Conservative supporters will be voting UKIP and funding UKIP.
Northerners are not going to switch to Conservative because of HS2.
What hs happened to the Conservative's political nouse?
Just asking
'The only political party officially opposed to HS2 is UKIP.'
The only political party that doesn't understand there is a shortage of capacity or just opportunism?
Yes, how else will all those serfs get down to "Lunnun" to serve their masters without it.
The ones who can't afford the rent and get shipped off to the northern colonies by the local housing dept.
The 2010 [UKIP] manifesto claimed that the party would “invest in three new 200mph plus high-speed rail lines, including a new line between London and Newcastle with a spur to Manchester, a London-Bristol-Exeter line and a linking route via Birmingham”. Plans were also suggesting a high-speed rail service “to London, the UK and the Continent” from a new airport in the Thames Estuary.
http://lichfieldlive.co.uk/2014/02/13/lichfield-mp-releases-deleted-ukip-manifesto-in-hs2-row/
Unlike you , my natural party is Labour. From a selfish point of view, the worst party for me would be Labour yet I support them. Whilst, I have no problem with anyone earning as much as they can legally, I equally believe they should pay into society enough so that no one should fall below a minimum line. Otherwise, we would not be able to live in a fair and just society.
Ironically, in general elections, I cannot vote Labour living where I live, as I am too "political" !
I need come close to becoming a Liberal Democrat. In 2005 [ when I was not living in a CON-LD marginal ], I voted for Charles Kennedy. His position on Iraq had swayed my opinion hugely. Mind you, it wasn't too difficult. Blair was leading Labour.
with a british porter to carry Nige's trunk to the steamer en route to Rangoon ?
'Or because it gives journalists the opportunity to raise questions over the UKIP "restore train liveries" policy?'
Restoring train liveries and mandatory uniforms for taxi drivers might just swing my vote.
NR: You don't think anyone's capable of doing that job? [being Farage's secretary, a role performed by his wife]
NF: What, of marrying me?
NR: No. Of doing the job of your secretary.
NF: I don't know anyone who would work those hours, no.
NR: So that's it. It's clear - UKIP do not believe that any British person is capable of being the secretary of their leader?
NF: That's nonsense and you know it.
NR: You just said it!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27116110
Isn't the current @ukip immigration posters reminiscent of the Michael Howard/Lynton Crosby 2005 posters on the same subject? #glasshouses