politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A Punters History of the Labour Contest. From Callaghan to Cor
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The Sunday Times leak is unbelievable. Seems one of the main reasons to target seats that Corbyn had no hope in, was to try and change the makeup of the PLP.
We are about to witness the Last Battle for the soul of the Labour Party. I am not optimistic.
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As I pointed out very early on, most of Labour's expenditure in the campaign would have been spaffed up a wall.rottenborough said:0 -
Corbyn's MRP?rottenborough said:0 -
They were clearly using Centrist Phone as their internal polling expert.....0
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In the John Harris video, Ruth Smeeth on GE was asked where are the maomentumers and she said she had asked Labour HQ for volunteers and no one was ever sent. A few hours earlier, Harris had been in Milton Keynes (if I remember correctly) and there was tonnes of them, in two seats that have been Tory for years.rottenborough said:The Sunday Times leak is unbelievable. Seems one of the main reasons to target seats that Corbyn had no hope in, was to try and change the makeup of the PLP.
We are about to witness the Last Battle for the soul of the Labour Party. I am not optimistic.0 -
I cannot believe any member of the party, never mind the Union barons, can look at the results of this election and think anything other than we need to change direction and leadership totally.RobD said:
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I have no idea what you are talking about....Philip_Thompson said:twitter.com/Gabriel_Pogrund/status/1208503694142189568
No antisemitism in Labour is there?
https://twitter.com/DavidB45212563/status/11773340598375915660 -
Has anyone on here ever watched Dave Allen?3
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Yep. Genius.TheGreenMachine said:Has anyone on here ever watched Dave Allen?
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Without doubt.rottenborough said:
Yep. Genius.TheGreenMachine said:Has anyone on here ever watched Dave Allen?
He doesn't much get TV time.
https://youtu.be/mYXenjpefNU0 -
Ken Livingstone would not know the truth if it slapped him in the face.FrancisUrquhart said:
I have no idea what you are talking about....Philip_Thompson said:twitter.com/Gabriel_Pogrund/status/1208503694142189568
No antisemitism in Labour is there?
https://twitter.com/DavidB45212563/status/11773340598375915660 -
OT.
Why is there such reluctance in politics (not so much on here among the elite) to look at evidence from other countries when making policy or forming opinions?0 -
I saw him live on New Year’s Eve in the 90sTheGreenMachine said:Has anyone on here ever watched Dave Allen?
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It does seem Agent Corbyn, top Tory operative, deserves a knighthood. The ultimate, four year, long game. Playing 2017 just right was particularly inspired.1
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Indeed. But why did so many sane Labour members fall for his crap?Time_to_Leave said:It does seem Agent Corbyn, top Tory operative, deserves a knighthood. The ultimate, four year, long game. Playing 2017 just right was particularly inspired.
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So, what's the sketch for 2029 and 2039?rottenborough said:0 -
This is much, much worse for Labour than 1983. The militant cancer, in the form of Momentum, has consumed the body of the party.rottenborough said:
I cannot believe any member of the party, never mind the Union barons, can look at the results of this election and think anything other than we need to change direction and leadership totally.RobD said:
I think the problem is with living in a post-truth era, in a social media echo chamber. The momentumites are able to convince each other that they are right and the world is wrong.0 -
I think there is a school of thought amongst the more crazy wing of Labour which says that Blair’s approach was a mistake and if only they’d hung in there, a “proper” Labour leader could have won in 1997.rottenborough said:
I cannot believe any member of the party, never mind the Union barons, can look at the results of this election and think anything other than we need to change direction and leadership totally.RobD said:
We just have to hope, as a nation, that there aren’t enough of them to vote in Long-Bailey.
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If anything these new revelations disprove the Tory plant theory, because the campaign was too blatantly stupid to get away with. Or maybe that's just what CCHQ wanted people to think. "He can't be working for the Tories, as this campaign is so obviously ridiculous they'd never try it".Time_to_Leave said:It does seem Agent Corbyn, top Tory operative, deserves a knighthood. The ultimate, four year, long game. Playing 2017 just right was particularly inspired.
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TBF the Finchley thing could be anti-LibDemicism, they definitely have that in LabourPhilip_Thompson said:https://twitter.com/Gabriel_Pogrund/status/1208503694142189568
No antisemitism in Labour is there?0 -
Yes. I take the old-fashioned view that both parties alternating 8-10 year terms is about right. Another two terms of Tory Gvt wouldn’t be healthy. And yet...kyf_100 said:
This is much, much worse for Labour than 1983. The militant cancer, in the form of Momentum, has consumed the body of the party.rottenborough said:
I cannot believe any member of the party, never mind the Union barons, can look at the results of this election and think anything other than we need to change direction and leadership totally.RobD said:
I think the problem is with living in a post-truth era, in a social media echo chamber. The momentumites are able to convince each other that they are right and the world is wrong.
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Yes, to be fair surely all parties would put effort into going after defectors.edmundintokyo said:
TBF the Finchley thing could be anti-LibDemicism, they definitely have that in LabourPhilip_Thompson said:https://twitter.com/Gabriel_Pogrund/status/1208503694142189568
No antisemitism in Labour is there?
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Do these fools count John Smith as a proper Labour leader? He would have won in 97 if he had not sadly passed away too young.Time_to_Leave said:
I think there is a school of thought amongst the more crazy wing of Labour which says that Blair’s approach was a mistake and if only they’d hung in there, a “proper” Labour leader could have won in 1997.rottenborough said:
I cannot believe any member of the party, never mind the Union barons, can look at the results of this election and think anything other than we need to change direction and leadership totally.RobD said:
We just have to hope, as a nation, that there aren’t enough of them to vote in Long-Bailey.
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Well death doesn't work for everyone as a career move...TheGreenMachine said:
Without doubt.rottenborough said:
Yep. Genius.TheGreenMachine said:Has anyone on here ever watched Dave Allen?
He doesn't much get TV time....0 -
How many of the idiots who voted for Corbyn to be leader remember or have even heard of Smith?rottenborough said:Do these fools count John Smith as a proper Labour leader? He would have won in 97 if he had not sadly passed away too young.
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Brilliant comedian.TheGreenMachine said:Has anyone on here ever watched Dave Allen?
Bill Hicks died too soon too1 -
Good point.glw said:
How many of the idiots who voted for Corbyn to be leader remember or have even heard of Smith?rottenborough said:Do these fools count John Smith as a proper Labour leader? He would have won in 97 if he had not sadly passed away too young.
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Usually works for rock musiciansNigelb said:
Well death doesn't work for everyone as a career move...TheGreenMachine said:
Without doubt.rottenborough said:
Yep. Genius.TheGreenMachine said:Has anyone on here ever watched Dave Allen?
He doesn't much get TV time....0 -
You would expect Labour to take a good long look at 2017 and 2019 and realise the country isn't sold on socialism and perhaps start moving back toward the centre, from where they have won before.Time_to_Leave said:
Yes. I take the old-fashioned view that both parties alternating 8-10 year terms is about right. Another two terms of Tory Gvt wouldn’t be healthy. And yet...kyf_100 said:
This is much, much worse for Labour than 1983. The militant cancer, in the form of Momentum, has consumed the body of the party.rottenborough said:
I cannot believe any member of the party, never mind the Union barons, can look at the results of this election and think anything other than we need to change direction and leadership totally.RobD said:
I think the problem is with living in a post-truth era, in a social media echo chamber. The momentumites are able to convince each other that they are right and the world is wrong.
You might think that after nine years of Tory rule, winning might mean more to them than ideological purity. But there will be no compromise with the voters.
I genuinely think it is because social media gives us all the post-truth comfort blanket of believing whatever narrative we want to believe, and the narrative that is developing in loony-left-land is that Jeremy is a saint whose victory was stolen from him by a cabal of billionaires and power brokers who manipulated a pliant working class and blinded them to the truth of Saint Jeremy.
It's a view, I suppose, but not one that is likely to shift the Tories from Number 10 for at least a decade or more.3 -
I guess I have reached an age where it is incomprehensible that the lessons of the past have not been learned. A right wing government vs a very left wing opposition will result in the usual result.Time_to_Leave said:
Yes. I take the old-fashioned view that both parties alternating 8-10 year terms is about right. Another two terms of Tory Gvt wouldn’t be healthy. And yet...kyf_100 said:
This is much, much worse for Labour than 1983. The militant cancer, in the form of Momentum, has consumed the body of the party.rottenborough said:
I cannot believe any member of the party, never mind the Union barons, can look at the results of this election and think anything other than we need to change direction and leadership totally.RobD said:
I think the problem is with living in a post-truth era, in a social media echo chamber. The momentumites are able to convince each other that they are right and the world is wrong.1 -
I fear that this maxim is now employed by all.squareroot2 said:
How truthful is the Canary online rag.mwadams said:
The truth is what we say it is.ydoethur said:
It is Skwawkbox. Never knowingly published the truth.SandyRentool said:Lavery.
Either there is some serious trolling going on or illegal substances are being consumed in vast quantities.0 -
It’s too early to tell yet, but it is looking like Labour is allowing Boris to frame this as the “first Boris term”. Not clever.kyf_100 said:
You would expect Labour to take a good long look at 2017 and 2019 and realise the country isn't sold on socialism and perhaps start moving back toward the centre, from where they have won before.Time_to_Leave said:
Yes. I take the old-fashioned view that both parties alternating 8-10 year terms is about right. Another two terms of Tory Gvt wouldn’t be healthy. And yet...kyf_100 said:
This is much, much worse for Labour than 1983. The militant cancer, in the form of Momentum, has consumed the body of the party.rottenborough said:
I cannot believe any member of the party, never mind the Union barons, can look at the results of this election and think anything other than we need to change direction and leadership totally.RobD said:
I think the problem is with living in a post-truth era, in a social media echo chamber. The momentumites are able to convince each other that they are right and the world is wrong.
You might think that after nine years of Tory rule, winning might mean more to them than ideological purity. But there will be no compromise with the voters.
I genuinely think it is because social media gives us all the post-truth comfort blanket of believing whatever narrative we want to believe, and the narrative that is developing in loony-left-land is that Jeremy is a saint whose victory was stolen from him by a cabal of billionaires and power brokers who manipulated a pliant working class and blinded them to the truth of Saint Jeremy.
It's a view, I suppose, but not one that is likely to shift the Tories from Number 10 for at least a decade or more.
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In 2015 the other three candidates offered absolutely nothing. We would have meandered on for five years to another defeat. Corbyn was offering something different, some vision of a different politics, a different future. Remember, we were expecting to be fighting a newly elected PM Osborne in 2020.rottenborough said:
Indeed. But why did so many sane Labour members fall for his crap?Time_to_Leave said:It does seem Agent Corbyn, top Tory operative, deserves a knighthood. The ultimate, four year, long game. Playing 2017 just right was particularly inspired.
Of course, events rapidly moved on and Jezza rapidly demonstrated that he didn't have the ability to lead. People like me were ready to get rid, but by then the cultists, entryists and naive had taken control.2 -
Maybe Milne's expensive Winchester education wasn't wasted after all and he was in fact, the Tories deepest of deep cover agents.
Only decent explanation of his strategy for Corbyn since 2017.0 -
Byronic is an anagram of "I, Corbyn".rottenborough said:0 -
Cooper offered more than Corbyn.SandyRentool said:
In 2015 the other three candidates offered absolutely nothing. We would have meandered on for five years to another defeat. Corbyn was offering something different, some vision of a different politics, a different future. Remember, we were expecting to be fighting a newly elected PM Osborne in 2020.rottenborough said:
Indeed. But why did so many sane Labour members fall for his crap?Time_to_Leave said:It does seem Agent Corbyn, top Tory operative, deserves a knighthood. The ultimate, four year, long game. Playing 2017 just right was particularly inspired.
Of course, events rapidly moved on and Jezza rapidly demonstrated that he didn't have the ability to lead. People like me were ready to get rid, but by then the cultists, entryists and naive had taken control.0 -
This is why she wins her purplish state areas by landslides. Even with winning in areas other Dems can only dream of.edmundintokyo said:OT KLOBUCHAR stanning: This candidate is so good, why is this even a contest
https://twitter.com/IAStartingLine/status/12084751744981155850 -
Nope, I think they are solidly in the hands of the trots and marxists nowrottenborough said:The Sunday Times leak is unbelievable. Seems one of the main reasons to target seats that Corbyn had no hope in, was to try and change the makeup of the PLP.
We are about to witness the Last Battle for the soul of the Labour Party. I am not optimistic.
I just don't see anyone able to change that.0 -
But here's old Ken - he's been crass, he's been insensitive and thuggish and brutal in his language - but I don't think actually if you read what he said, although it was extraordinary and rude, I don't think he was actually anti-Semitic.FrancisUrquhart said:
I have no idea what you are talking about....Philip_Thompson said:twitter.com/Gabriel_Pogrund/status/1208503694142189568
No antisemitism in Labour is there?
https://twitter.com/DavidB45212563/status/1177334059837591566
- Boris Johnson, "Quotes of the Day", The Times, 18 February 2005.
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But it is also an anagram of Mincing Disco Mum......rottenborough said:0 -
Dear old Boris, always trying to believe the best of people.Sunil_Prasannan said:
But here's old Ken - he's been crass, he's been insensitive and thuggish and brutal in his language - but I don't think actually if you read what he said, although it was extraordinary and rude, I don't think he was actually anti-Semitic.FrancisUrquhart said:
I have no idea what you are talking about....Philip_Thompson said:twitter.com/Gabriel_Pogrund/status/1208503694142189568
No antisemitism in Labour is there?
https://twitter.com/DavidB45212563/status/1177334059837591566
- Boris Johnson, "Quotes of the Day", The Times, 18 February 2005.1 -
Very detailed and informative header, great stuff.
Surely in this contest any Labour leadership candidate who suggests they did anything wrong other than the leader maybe having the wrong backstory, and not explaining their magnificent policies well enough, will have no chance? So I do wonder just how interesting the contest will end up being, when there won't be that much difference between the candidates who have a chance at least.0 -
From what I can gather political parties believe that promising anything other than total victory and optimistic offensive campaigns, even internally, is itself too damaging to contemplate. It's why everyone keeps their mouths shut and then later says of course they had concerns.rottenborough said:0 -
Well he has provided quite a bit more to go on in recent years.Sunil_Prasannan said:
But here's old Ken - he's been crass, he's been insensitive and thuggish and brutal in his language - but I don't think actually if you read what he said, although it was extraordinary and rude, I don't think he was actually anti-Semitic.FrancisUrquhart said:
I have no idea what you are talking about....Philip_Thompson said:twitter.com/Gabriel_Pogrund/status/1208503694142189568
No antisemitism in Labour is there?
https://twitter.com/DavidB45212563/status/1177334059837591566
- Boris Johnson, "Quotes of the Day", The Times, 18 February 2005.0 -
Remember that supposed novaro media 'advice' to Labour canvassers? The leadership clique and its supporters literally believe that Labour was not for anything before the coming of the great JC. I don't quite know why they are so devoted to the brand when they don't think it was worth a damn before 2015, even when they were a part of it at the time.glw said:
How many of the idiots who voted for Corbyn to be leader remember or have even heard of Smith?rottenborough said:Do these fools count John Smith as a proper Labour leader? He would have won in 97 if he had not sadly passed away too young.
It's funny, as even David Cameron recognised that the Laboru government had done some good and said he would keep those things, showing more nuance than actual supporters of Labour on the worthiness of a Labour government.0 -
I think there is reasonable willingness to do so on smaller things, but outside the exception of immigration the big emotive stuff does have that reluctance perhaps. It's basic stubborness I think, combined with people who go too far in the other direction and who advocate doing things precisely as another country does, even if it is more complicated than sheer replication.Freggles said:OT.
Why is there such reluctance in politics (not so much on here among the elite) to look at evidence from other countries when making policy or forming opinions?0 -
Same reasons Republicans go for Trump - tribalism.rottenborough said:
Indeed. But why did so many sane Labour members fall for his crap?Time_to_Leave said:It does seem Agent Corbyn, top Tory operative, deserves a knighthood. The ultimate, four year, long game. Playing 2017 just right was particularly inspired.
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By the way, I love this line from that petition circulating to keep Corbyn as leader:
If Jeremy Corbyn stands down now they will know project smear works. They know it will eventually drive the membership to crave a new leader who will get an easier ride from the establishment.. Someone like Blair for instance
Oh, such horror!0 -
These activists who think Blair/Brown achieved nothing have obviously had sheltered lives in middle class communes, as they have not had to make use of SureStart centres, child benefit, minimum wage, peace in NI, etc etc.kle4 said:
Remember that supposed novaro media 'advice' to Labour canvassers? The leadership clique and its supporters literally believe that Labour was not for anything before the coming of the great JC. I don't quite know why they are so devoted to the brand when they don't think it was worth a damn before 2015, even when they were a part of it at the time.glw said:
How many of the idiots who voted for Corbyn to be leader remember or have even heard of Smith?rottenborough said:Do these fools count John Smith as a proper Labour leader? He would have won in 97 if he had not sadly passed away too young.
It's funny, as even David Cameron recognised that the Laboru government had done some good and said he would keep those things, showing more nuance than actual supporters of Labour on the worthiness of a Labour government.
If nothing else, the momentum kids can sit in a wine bar and not have someone's cigarrette smoke wafting across their avaocado.0 -
Even if Labour were targeting long shots, I don't see how they came up with some of those seats, the thought of them gaining Halesowen or Sherwood!0
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Without doubtrottenborough said:
Yep. Genius.TheGreenMachine said:Has anyone on here ever watched Dave Allen?
https://youtu.be/mYXenjpefNU
I mean repeats etc.Nigelb said:
Well death doesn't work for everyone as a career move...TheGreenMachine said:
Without doubt.rottenborough said:
Yep. Genius.TheGreenMachine said:Has anyone on here ever watched Dave Allen?
He doesn't much get TV time....0 -
Majority of the greats did, even Tommy cooper unfortunately.Pulpstar said:
Brilliant comedian.TheGreenMachine said:Has anyone on here ever watched Dave Allen?
Bill Hicks died too soon too0 -
We really need to see polling on the Labour candidates before we conclude Corbyn’s most dedicated followers are where the Labour leadership are at.0
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Perhaps. But what they are saying as an indication of where they believe the membership is at could be quite telling.The_Apocalypse said:We really need to see polling on the Labour candidates before we conclude Corbyn’s most dedicated followers are where the Labour leadership are at.
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When will that be released?The_Apocalypse said:We really need to see polling on the Labour candidates before we conclude Corbyn’s most dedicated followers are where the Labour leadership are at.
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I don’t think that’s going to happen. We’ve been told so many times of moderate Labour supporters going to the LDs, and yet look at how they did. Look at how ChangeUK did. FPTP means it’s Labour or bust for voters who are centre left/left (Scotland being the exception). Although I wouldn’t write off the opposition on the back of Long Bailey’s issues. If anything the splits among the hard left might give the other candidates (bar Philips don’t see the members going for her) an advantage.rottenborough said:https://twitter.com/siennamarla/status/1208475422595395584
Enough. Time for a new left of centre party that can actually provide an opposition.0 -
I’m not sure - hopefully we get some polling soon.TheGreenMachine said:
When will that be released?The_Apocalypse said:We really need to see polling on the Labour candidates before we conclude Corbyn’s most dedicated followers are where the Labour leadership are at.
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Some people think Blair/Brown achieved nothing, but others think that Blair was misguided on certain issues (e.g. foreign policy) and felt that Labour compromised a bit too much on policy.rottenborough said:
These activists who think Blair/Brown achieved nothing have obviously had sheltered lives in middle class communes, as they have not had to make use of SureStart centres, child benefit, minimum wage, peace in NI, etc etc.kle4 said:
Remember that supposed novaro media 'advice' to Labour canvassers? The leadership clique and its supporters literally believe that Labour was not for anything before the coming of the great JC. I don't quite know why they are so devoted to the brand when they don't think it was worth a damn before 2015, even when they were a part of it at the time.glw said:
How many of the idiots who voted for Corbyn to be leader remember or have even heard of Smith?rottenborough said:Do these fools count John Smith as a proper Labour leader? He would have won in 97 if he had not sadly passed away too young.
It's funny, as even David Cameron recognised that the Laboru government had done some good and said he would keep those things, showing more nuance than actual supporters of Labour on the worthiness of a Labour government.
If nothing else, the momentum kids can sit in a wine bar and not have someone's cigarrette smoke wafting across their avaocado.
The most hardened views on Blair especially actually come from older, not younger voters https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/james-morris/labour-focus-groups_b_16448680.html. Then there is Owen Smith winning with younger Labour activists back in 2016.0 -
Which candidate (s) do you think would be good for the job?The_Apocalypse said:
I’m not sure - hopefully we get some polling soon.TheGreenMachine said:
When will that be released?The_Apocalypse said:We really need to see polling on the Labour candidates before we conclude Corbyn’s most dedicated followers are where the Labour leadership are at.
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It's also because Labour's problems go far deeper than Corbyn. It's now got a membership with close to a majority of believers in various forms of declarative socialism - from the dyed in the wool 'poems for Corbyn' types who have totally lost any grip on reality outside their echo chambers, to the more sensible soft left types who go along with it because their politics were forged during the fag end of the last Labour government and economic crisis, are hugely socially liberal, and want to believe in something performative and radical, and so park their doubts about the snakeoil that's sold to them via tribalism and fear and loathing of any imperfection that happens when someone tries to shift things a bit to the centre economically or socially. So candidates like Nandy, Starmer, or even Lammy are attacked for apostasy. The left, and I count myself on that side of politics, is deluded, divided, and unwilling to accept internal compromise - so of course snakeoil salesmen whose radicalism is making promises to all, backed by people who are very good at internal Labour machine politics, but little else, have taken hold.kle4 said:
Same reasons Republicans go for Trump - tribalism.rottenborough said:
Indeed. But why did so many sane Labour members fall for his crap?Time_to_Leave said:It does seem Agent Corbyn, top Tory operative, deserves a knighthood. The ultimate, four year, long game. Playing 2017 just right was particularly inspired.
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I don't understand your world. Common sense seems alien. You throw Lammy into the mix and ..... He's a male Abbott.MJW said:
It's also because Labour's problems go far deeper than Corbyn. It's now got a membership with close to a majority of believers in various forms of declarative socialism - from the dyed in the wool 'poems for Corbyn' types who have totally lost any grip on reality outside their echo chambers, to the more sensible soft left types who go along with it because their politics were forged during the fag end of the last Labour government and economic crisis, are hugely socially liberal, and want to believe in something performative and radical, and so park their doubts about the snakeoil that's sold to them via tribalism and fear and loathing of any imperfection that happens when someone tries to shift things a bit to the centre economically or socially. So candidates like Nandy, Starmer, or even Lammy are attacked for apostasy. The left, and I count myself on that side of politics, is deluded, divided, and unwilling to accept internal compromise - so of course snakeoil salesmen whose radicalism is making promises to all, backed by people who are very good at internal Labour machine politics, but little else, have taken hold.kle4 said:
Same reasons Republicans go for Trump - tribalism.rottenborough said:
Indeed. But why did so many sane Labour members fall for his crap?Time_to_Leave said:It does seem Agent Corbyn, top Tory operative, deserves a knighthood. The ultimate, four year, long game. Playing 2017 just right was particularly inspired.
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That is truly shocking - from the Guardian too. Unite leadership is condemned as dissolute scumbags by Labour cheerleadersalex_ said:0 -
You might think she's thinking about it, but this lady is not for thinkingTheGreenMachine said:
Which candidate (s) do you think would be good for the job?The_Apocalypse said:
I’m not sure - hopefully we get some polling soon.TheGreenMachine said:
When will that be released?The_Apocalypse said:We really need to see polling on the Labour candidates before we conclude Corbyn’s most dedicated followers are where the Labour leadership are at.
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Night night
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I wanted Rayner to run but it looks like she’s going to be running for deputy leader. I’m interested to see what Starmer and Nandy bring to the table - I think either of them have the potential to be good candidates.TheGreenMachine said:
Which candidate (s) do you think would be good for the job?The_Apocalypse said:
I’m not sure - hopefully we get some polling soon.TheGreenMachine said:
When will that be released?The_Apocalypse said:We really need to see polling on the Labour candidates before we conclude Corbyn’s most dedicated followers are where the Labour leadership are at.
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@MikeSmithson @TheScreamingEagles
This is an extraordinarily good article. So much so I would like to contact the author (Anthony Broxton, aka https://twitter.com/anthony_broxton aka @labour_history ). How do I contact him please?0 -
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