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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A Punters History of the Labour Contest. From Callaghan to Corbyn

As I wrote in the run-up to the general election, political betting markets can be lucrative ones for punters. One of the so-called ‘iron laws’ of Conservative leadership contests is that the front runner does not win it. In 2019, Boris Johnson finally put the myth to bed. Labour on the other hand have a different past, much more content to back the front runner and at time they have proved to be coronations rather than contests. 2019 has the potential to break into a civil war for the party.

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Sunil_Prasannan

First like Boris

ydoethur

Sunil_Prasannan said:

First like Boris

I demand a judge led enquiry like Ed Miliband.

rcs1000

Point of order, Tristram did announce his candidacy, he just couldn't find enough MPs to nominate him.

ydoethur

rcs1000 said:

Point of order, Tristram did announce his candidacy, he just couldn't find enough MPs to nominate him.

It is not altogether reassuring to think Labour could have picked a worse leader than Corbyn.

TheGreenMachine

Top 10 Finally.

state_go_away

Of ex PM's I would say that Tony Blair got the full name treatment more than most . Churchill , Atlee, Thatcher (although she was honoured by those who liked her with Mrs Thatcher a lot) (Maggie was a bit ironic and edgy!_) , Major,Callaghan,Cameron and May were definitely last name only generally - Edward Heath and Gordon Brown a bit mixed.

kinabalu

I was looking forward to supporting Pidcock but she lost her seat. Now I'm not at all sure who I will vote for. My big betting win would be Yvette Cooper. I backed her at very long odds a while ago for the 'swing back to timid, scared-of-shadow moderation' scenario that I thought (and still think) might follow a bad GE defeat.

Black_Rook

Can anyone think of any conceivable challenger to RLB who's (a) further left and (b) might be able to secure the necessary nominations? If not then she's going to win, surely?

ydoethur

state_go_away said:

Of ex PM's I would say that Tony Blair got the full name treatment more than most . Churchill , Atlee, Thatcher (although she was honoured by those who liked her with Mrs Thatcher a lot) (Maggie was a bit ironic and edgy!_) , Major,Callaghan,Cameron and May were definitely last name only generally - Edward Heath and Gordon Brown a bit mixed.

Callaghan was Sonny Jim, wasn’t he?

MikeSmithson

Black_Rook said:

Can anyone think of any conceivable challenger to RLB who's (a) further left and (b) might be able to secure the necessary nominations? If not then she's going to win, surely?

I'm hoping the some LAB member polling, perhaps tonight, which will give us a better idea.

FF43

FPT

DavidL said:

I think that that is confusing 2 different things. If goods are being exported from the UK to the EU they need to comply with EU regulations and visa versa. This is simpler to ensure if goods manufactured in the UK are subject to the same regulations but it is not essential, its just that there is a price attached to the greater possibility of differentiation. Other than ensuring that all goods circulating in the SM meet their standards I don't see the EU having any interest in what UK regulation is.

The second aspect is the fear that the UK might become overly competitive if, for example, we did not burden our manufacturers with such onerous responsibilities in respect of maternity pay, working hours requirements, a very bureaucratic health and safety regime and things like GDPR. Keeping a "level playing field" in this context requires us to apply regulations so that we do not gain a competitive advantage. I think that is much more difficult for us to tolerate. Its also completely silly because a much bigger advantage can be gained by a competitive devaluation of Sterling, for example.

I think we will find a comfortable modus operendi in respect of the first issue based on regulatory equivalence. The second will give Boris (sorry to those upset by this) more of an issue.

ralphmalph said:

What does high access mean? You make a car in the EU to the regs, get it approved and then you can sell it to every EU member. Make a car outside the EU, get it approved at an EU approval centre and you can sell it in all EU countries.

The EU want LPF to protect their trade surpluses, so if we sign up to food standards, the EU approves the foods and decides what countries comply arround the world, meaning that if we sign up to this we can not go and replace food with other world food at our choice.

Goods sold to the EU must meet specific EU product regulations for those goods, but to get preferential trade with the EU the UK will need to sign up to general level playing field commitments. The first is necessary but not sufficient: without LPF you get don't get to play. Non-preferential tariffs on cars are an unaffordable 10%, likely killing large scale manufacturing in the UK. This will hit many other sectors as well.

May's Deal set out LPF requirements covering taxation (tax avoidance bigger issue than rates), state aid rules, social and environmental protections. LPF will be set by permanent treaty with sanctions for breach, on a non-regression basis (keep existing laws; no new laws required).

Will Johnson agree to the LPF terms? He will agree if he wants to avoid chaos at the end of next year. I think he will agree.

If we reject "No alignment and no preferential trade", we are left with either "high alignment and average access" or "higher alignment and good access". It's not clear the first is better than the second.

Scrapheap_as_was

Black_Rook said:

Can anyone think of any conceivable challenger to RLB who's (a) further left and (b) might be able to secure the necessary nominations? If not then she's going to win, surely?

BINGO......

https://twitter.com/skwawkbox/status/1208463138393403392?s=19

rcs1000

ydoethur said:

state_go_away said:

Of ex PM's I would say that Tony Blair got the full name treatment more than most . Churchill , Atlee, Thatcher (although she was honoured by those who liked her with Mrs Thatcher a lot) (Maggie was a bit ironic and edgy!_) , Major,Callaghan,Cameron and May were definitely last name only generally - Edward Heath and Gordon Brown a bit mixed.

Callaghan was Sonny Jim, wasn’t he?

I thought it was Sunny Jim

Black_Rook

MikeSmithson said:

Black_Rook said:

Can anyone think of any conceivable challenger to RLB who's (a) further left and (b) might be able to secure the necessary nominations? If not then she's going to win, surely?

I'm hoping the some LAB member polling, perhaps tonight, which will give us a better idea.

That'll be interesting. As @kinabalu mentions below, Pidcock was the obvious alternative but she's gone. Has anything been heard from Dawn Butler since the GE? *EDIT - appears she's already declared an interest in the deputy gig, forget I said anything*

ydoethur

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Black_Rook said:

Can anyone think of any conceivable challenger to RLB who's (a) further left and (b) might be able to secure the necessary nominations? If not then she's going to win, surely?

BINGO......

https://twitter.com/skwawkbox/status/1208463138393403392?s=19

I know he must be pissed off with Labour right now after yet again being branded a liar and a bully by a judge, but there’s nastiness and nastiness. Wishing Lavery and Butler on Labour is just not on.

Unless he’s a closet Tory.

kyf_100

Black_Rook said:

MikeSmithson said:

Black_Rook said:

Can anyone think of any conceivable challenger to RLB who's (a) further left and (b) might be able to secure the necessary nominations? If not then she's going to win, surely?

I'm hoping the some LAB member polling, perhaps tonight, which will give us a better idea.

That'll be interesting. As @kinabalu mentions below, Pidcock was the obvious alternative but she's gone. Has anything been heard from Dawn Butler since the GE? *EDIT - appears she's already declared an interest in the deputy gig, forget I said anything*

Imagine the hilarity if Corbyn decides to stand down in Islington North and parachutes Pidcock in...

Black_Rook

ydoethur said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Black_Rook said:

Can anyone think of any conceivable challenger to RLB who's (a) further left and (b) might be able to secure the necessary nominations? If not then she's going to win, surely?

BINGO......

https://twitter.com/skwawkbox/status/1208463138393403392?s=19

I know he must be pissed off with Labour right now after yet again being branded a liar and a bully by a judge, but there’s nastiness and nastiness. Wishing Lavery and Butler on Labour is just not on.

Unless he’s a closet Tory.

Labour's members couldn't possibly be *THAT* thick - could they...?

Then again, we are, after all, talking about Labour's members here. And Lavery is available at 100-1...

rottenborough

Just read an article in Newstatesman which mentioned John Cruddas. An important figure for the next stage of Labour I reckon. Focus on localism, place, family, community, social connections.

So, I check whether he is even still an MP. Yep. Just. Majority now is 293. Down from 4K.

In Dagenham.

Wow. Nice work Corbynistas. What a disaster they have delivered and so far no sign of a iota of contrition.

Black_Rook

kyf_100 said:

Black_Rook said:

MikeSmithson said:

Black_Rook said:

Can anyone think of any conceivable challenger to RLB who's (a) further left and (b) might be able to secure the necessary nominations? If not then she's going to win, surely?

I'm hoping the some LAB member polling, perhaps tonight, which will give us a better idea.

That'll be interesting. As @kinabalu mentions below, Pidcock was the obvious alternative but she's gone. Has anything been heard from Dawn Butler since the GE? *EDIT - appears she's already declared an interest in the deputy gig, forget I said anything*

Imagine the hilarity if Corbyn decides to stand down in Islington North and parachutes Pidcock in...

Insufficient time for this leadership election, but in the longer term, who knows?

ydoethur

kyf_100 said:

Black_Rook said:

MikeSmithson said:

Black_Rook said:

Can anyone think of any conceivable challenger to RLB who's (a) further left and (b) might be able to secure the necessary nominations? If not then she's going to win, surely?

I'm hoping the some LAB member polling, perhaps tonight, which will give us a better idea.

That'll be interesting. As @kinabalu mentions below, Pidcock was the obvious alternative but she's gone. Has anything been heard from Dawn Butler since the GE? *EDIT - appears she's already declared an interest in the deputy gig, forget I said anything*

Imagine the hilarity if Corbyn decides to stand down in Islington North and parachutes Pidcock in...

Leaving the Commons would vacate the leadership, so even if she held in the by-election she would be too late to stand in the contest.

rottenborough

ydoethur said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Black_Rook said:

Can anyone think of any conceivable challenger to RLB who's (a) further left and (b) might be able to secure the necessary nominations? If not then she's going to win, surely?

BINGO......

https://twitter.com/skwawkbox/status/1208463138393403392?s=19

I know he must be pissed off with Labour right now after yet again being branded a liar and a bully by a judge, but there’s nastiness and nastiness. Wishing Lavery and Butler on Labour is just not on.

Unless he’s a closet Tory.

Bloody hell. He's not even in the BF list. I am red on Lavery in a massive way.

ydoethur

Black_Rook said:

ydoethur said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Black_Rook said:

Can anyone think of any conceivable challenger to RLB who's (a) further left and (b) might be able to secure the necessary nominations? If not then she's going to win, surely?

BINGO......

https://twitter.com/skwawkbox/status/1208463138393403392?s=19

I know he must be pissed off with Labour right now after yet again being branded a liar and a bully by a judge, but there’s nastiness and nastiness. Wishing Lavery and Butler on Labour is just not on.

Unless he’s a closet Tory.

Labour's members couldn't possibly be *THAT* thick - could they...?

Then again, we are, after all, talking about Labour's members here. And Lavery is available at 100-1...

Would they really pick someone holding so marginal a seat? Wansbeck went to a recount last time.

I’d be more concerned about the fact he’s a scumbag with - ahem - inventive tax and expenses arrangements, but that’s not going to bother Labour given he’s ideologically sound.

Black_Rook

rottenborough said:

Just read an article in Newstatesman which mentioned John Cruddas. An important figure for the next stage of Labour I reckon. Focus on localism, place, family, community, social connections.

So, I check whether he is even still an MP. Yep. Just. Majority now is 293. Down from 4K.

In Dagenham.

Wow. Nice work Corbynistas. What a disaster they have delivered and so far no sign of a iota of contrition.

Why would they be contrite? On their own terms they have triumphed completely. They've got control of the Labour Party. Yes, I dare say they'd probably enjoy a crack at ruining the country as well, but that's of secondary importance surely?

rottenborough

Black_Rook said:

rottenborough said:

Just read an article in Newstatesman which mentioned John Cruddas. An important figure for the next stage of Labour I reckon. Focus on localism, place, family, community, social connections.

So, I check whether he is even still an MP. Yep. Just. Majority now is 293. Down from 4K.

In Dagenham.

Wow. Nice work Corbynistas. What a disaster they have delivered and so far no sign of a iota of contrition.

Why would they be contrite? On their own terms they have triumphed completely. They've got control of the Labour Party. Yes, I dare say they'd probably enjoy a crack at ruining the country as well, but that's of secondary importance surely?

I guess I am old fashioned. I seem to be under the illusion that the purpose of a party is to win power and implement change.

FrancisUrquhart

I am presuming with the disappearance of the election astro-turfers their contracts have expired?

rottenborough

ydoethur said:

kyf_100 said:

Black_Rook said:

MikeSmithson said:

Black_Rook said:

Can anyone think of any conceivable challenger to RLB who's (a) further left and (b) might be able to secure the necessary nominations? If not then she's going to win, surely?

I'm hoping the some LAB member polling, perhaps tonight, which will give us a better idea.

That'll be interesting. As @kinabalu mentions below, Pidcock was the obvious alternative but she's gone. Has anything been heard from Dawn Butler since the GE? *EDIT - appears she's already declared an interest in the deputy gig, forget I said anything*

Imagine the hilarity if Corbyn decides to stand down in Islington North and parachutes Pidcock in...

Leaving the Commons would vacate the leadership, so even if she held in the by-election she would be too late to stand in the contest.

Can the Lab leader be a non-MP?

Black_Rook

ydoethur said:

Black_Rook said:

ydoethur said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Black_Rook said:

Can anyone think of any conceivable challenger to RLB who's (a) further left and (b) might be able to secure the necessary nominations? If not then she's going to win, surely?

BINGO......

https://twitter.com/skwawkbox/status/1208463138393403392?s=19

I know he must be pissed off with Labour right now after yet again being branded a liar and a bully by a judge, but there’s nastiness and nastiness. Wishing Lavery and Butler on Labour is just not on.

Unless he’s a closet Tory.

Labour's members couldn't possibly be *THAT* thick - could they...?

Then again, we are, after all, talking about Labour's members here. And Lavery is available at 100-1...

Would they really pick someone holding so marginal a seat? Wansbeck went to a recount last time.

I’d be more concerned about the fact he’s a scumbag with - ahem - inventive tax and expenses arrangements, but that’s not going to bother Labour given he’s ideologically sound.

A reasonable point re: the narrowness of the seat. Then again, losing it would require Labour to go backwards again at the next election, and they're presumably working on the assumption that their wonderful new leader and ennui with Boris will prevent that from happening.

Of course, if it did then they'd be in such a state that they'd be out of power for two more elections after that and might never win again. In which case, how would the defenestration of their leader make matters any worse for them?

kyf_100

Black_Rook said:

rottenborough said:

Just read an article in Newstatesman which mentioned John Cruddas. An important figure for the next stage of Labour I reckon. Focus on localism, place, family, community, social connections.

So, I check whether he is even still an MP. Yep. Just. Majority now is 293. Down from 4K.

In Dagenham.

Wow. Nice work Corbynistas. What a disaster they have delivered and so far no sign of a iota of contrition.

Why would they be contrite? On their own terms they have triumphed completely. They've got control of the Labour Party. Yes, I dare say they'd probably enjoy a crack at ruining the country as well, but that's of secondary importance surely?

I am pretty certain at this point the Corbynistas' strategy is "eventually the electorate will get tired of the Tories, when they do (even if that's in twenty years' time) we need to be the only game in town they can turn to".

Moderate Labour need to quit and form their own party.

ydoethur

rottenborough said:

ydoethur said:

kyf_100 said:

Black_Rook said:

MikeSmithson said:

Black_Rook said:

Can anyone think of any conceivable challenger to RLB who's (a) further left and (b) might be able to secure the necessary nominations? If not then she's going to win, surely?

I'm hoping the some LAB member polling, perhaps tonight, which will give us a better idea.

That'll be interesting. As @kinabalu mentions below, Pidcock was the obvious alternative but she's gone. Has anything been heard from Dawn Butler since the GE? *EDIT - appears she's already declared an interest in the deputy gig, forget I said anything*

Imagine the hilarity if Corbyn decides to stand down in Islington North and parachutes Pidcock in...

Leaving the Commons would vacate the leadership, so even if she held in the by-election she would be too late to stand in the contest.

Can the Lab leader be a non-MP?

No. Clause VII 1A(ii):

‘The leader and deputy leader of the Party shall be elected or re-elected from among Commons members of the PLP in accordance with procedural rule Chapter 4 Clause II below, at a Party conference convened in accordance with clause VI above.’

FrancisUrquhart

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Black_Rook said:

Can anyone think of any conceivable challenger to RLB who's (a) further left and (b) might be able to secure the necessary nominations? If not then she's going to win, surely?

BINGO......

https://twitter.com/skwawkbox/status/1208463138393403392?s=19

Even among the depressingly piss poor list of potential Labour leadership candidates, these two are easily at the bottom of any ability based metric you can think of.

malcolmg

state_go_away said:

Of ex PM's I would say that Tony Blair got the full name treatment more than most . Churchill , Atlee, Thatcher (although she was honoured by those who liked her with Mrs Thatcher a lot) (Maggie was a bit ironic and edgy!_) , Major,Callaghan,Cameron and May were definitely last name only generally - Edward Heath and Gordon Brown a bit mixed.

Thatcher was the milk snatcher

ydoethur

Black_Rook said:

ydoethur said:

Black_Rook said:

ydoethur said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Black_Rook said:

Can anyone think of any conceivable challenger to RLB who's (a) further left and (b) might be able to secure the necessary nominations? If not then she's going to win, surely?

BINGO......

https://twitter.com/skwawkbox/status/1208463138393403392?s=19

I know he must be pissed off with Labour right now after yet again being branded a liar and a bully by a judge, but there’s nastiness and nastiness. Wishing Lavery and Butler on Labour is just not on.

Unless he’s a closet Tory.

Labour's members couldn't possibly be *THAT* thick - could they...?

Then again, we are, after all, talking about Labour's members here. And Lavery is available at 100-1...

Would they really pick someone holding so marginal a seat? Wansbeck went to a recount last time.

I’d be more concerned about the fact he’s a scumbag with - ahem - inventive tax and expenses arrangements, but that’s not going to bother Labour given he’s ideologically sound.

A reasonable point re: the narrowness of the seat. Then again, losing it would require Labour to go backwards again at the next election, and they're presumably working on the assumption that their wonderful new leader and ennui with Boris will prevent that from happening.

Of course, if it did then they'd be in such a state that they'd be out of power for two more elections after that and might never win again. In which case, how would the defenestration of their leader make matters any worse for them?

I disagree. Wansbeck, along with Hemsworth, Warrington North, Hull East and several other close calls in the north could go blue next time due to changing demographics even if Labour progress overall. That’s even assuming it survives in its current form as Northumberland is over represented.

saddened

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Black_Rook said:

Can anyone think of any conceivable challenger to RLB who's (a) further left and (b) might be able to secure the necessary nominations? If not then she's going to win, surely?

BINGO......

https://twitter.com/skwawkbox/status/1208463138393403392?s=19

Yes please.

Floater

FrancisUrquhart said:

I am presuming with the disappearance of the election astro-turfers their contracts have expired?

They would not have had them renewed as they were achingly transparent and poor.

ydoethur

Floater said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I am presuming with the disappearance of the election astro-turfers their contracts have expired?

They would not have had them renewed as they were achingly transparent and poor.

Labour have just made all their staff redundant, apart of course from the ones who organised the epic clusterfuck to start with.

IanB2

Black_Rook said:

Can anyone think of any conceivable challenger to RLB who's (a) further left and (b) might be able to secure the necessary nominations? If not then she's going to win, surely?

Despite Thornberry’s multiple handicaps, it is always worth remembering that a significant proportion of membership and power in the Labour Party resides in London.

NorthernPowerhouse

Black_Rook said:

ydoethur said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Black_Rook said:

Can anyone think of any conceivable challenger to RLB who's (a) further left and (b) might be able to secure the necessary nominations? If not then she's going to win, surely?

BINGO......

https://twitter.com/skwawkbox/status/1208463138393403392?s=19

I know he must be pissed off with Labour right now after yet again being branded a liar and a bully by a judge, but there’s nastiness and nastiness. Wishing Lavery and Butler on Labour is just not on.

Unless he’s a closet Tory.

Labour's members couldn't possibly be *THAT* thick - could they...?

Then again, we are, after all, talking about Labour's members here. And Lavery is available at 100-1...

This is as ridiculous as Corbyn was at the start.

TheGreenMachine

Liverpool won 1-0 in extra time, does anyone what the betting was?

kinabalu

Pidcock is very young. Doubt it's over for her. In fact a period outside the slightly phony bubble of Westminster might well help her hone her weapons. Think Fidel in the jungle.

IanB2

FrancisUrquhart said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Black_Rook said:

Can anyone think of any conceivable challenger to RLB who's (a) further left and (b) might be able to secure the necessary nominations? If not then she's going to win, surely?

BINGO......

https://twitter.com/skwawkbox/status/1208463138393403392?s=19

Even among the depressingly piss poor list of potential Labour leadership candidates, these two are easily at the bottom of any ability based metric you can think of.

That can’t be the case without ‘smiley plank of wood’ Burgon on the slate, surely?

Black_Rook

IanB2 said:

Black_Rook said:

Can anyone think of any conceivable challenger to RLB who's (a) further left and (b) might be able to secure the necessary nominations? If not then she's going to win, surely?

Despite Thornberry’s multiple handicaps, it is always worth remembering that a significant proportion of membership and power in the Labour Party resides in London.

And most of them are Momentumites and, therefore, somewhere to the left of Lenin.

OK, so that's a flippant remark and a bit of an exaggeration. But not by very much.

ydoethur

IanB2 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Black_Rook said:

Can anyone think of any conceivable challenger to RLB who's (a) further left and (b) might be able to secure the necessary nominations? If not then she's going to win, surely?

BINGO......

https://twitter.com/skwawkbox/status/1208463138393403392?s=19

Even among the depressingly piss poor list of potential Labour leadership candidates, these two are easily at the bottom of any ability based metric you can think of.

That can’t be the case without ‘smiley plank of wood’ Burgon on the slate, surely?

It’s a desperate set, isn’t it?

GIN1138

FrancisUrquhart said:

I am presuming with the disappearance of the election astro-turfers their contracts have expired?

CHB hasn't disappeared surely?

Philip_Thompson

NorthernPowerhouse

state_go_away said:

Of ex PM's I would say that Tony Blair got the full name treatment more than most . Churchill , Atlee, Thatcher (although she was honoured by those who liked her with Mrs Thatcher a lot) (Maggie was a bit ironic and edgy!_) , Major,Callaghan,Cameron and May were definitely last name only generally - Edward Heath and Gordon Brown a bit mixed.

I cant say the name Tony Blair without faking a mancs accent and going "Tony fuc*king Blair"...

Foxy

FrancisUrquhart said:

I am presuming with the disappearance of the election astro-turfers their contracts have expired?

At 2200, on 12/12/19 what else would you expect?

Philip_Thompson

I really don't see the point in paying astroturfers. Their presence was rather obvious.

Black_Rook

kyf_100 said:

Black_Rook said:

rottenborough said:

Just read an article in Newstatesman which mentioned John Cruddas. An important figure for the next stage of Labour I reckon. Focus on localism, place, family, community, social connections.

So, I check whether he is even still an MP. Yep. Just. Majority now is 293. Down from 4K.

In Dagenham.

Wow. Nice work Corbynistas. What a disaster they have delivered and so far no sign of a iota of contrition.

Why would they be contrite? On their own terms they have triumphed completely. They've got control of the Labour Party. Yes, I dare say they'd probably enjoy a crack at ruining the country as well, but that's of secondary importance surely?

I am pretty certain at this point the Corbynistas' strategy is "eventually the electorate will get tired of the Tories, when they do (even if that's in twenty years' time) we need to be the only game in town they can turn to".

Moderate Labour need to quit and form their own party.

I suppose that this notion might be in their minds, though if so then (hopefully) they'll end up being gravely disappointed.

One would hope that if the only possible choices of Government for the British people were (a) the Tories and (b) the Let's Sacrifice All Babies to Satan Party, people would keep voting Tory no matter how bored they were of them.

The principle having been established, we can only hope that Momentum would keep on being rejected in the same fashion, until a non-catastrophic replacement finally emerged.

alex_

kyf_100 said:

Black_Rook said:

rottenborough said:

Just read an article in Newstatesman which mentioned John Cruddas. An important figure for the next stage of Labour I reckon. Focus on localism, place, family, community, social connections.

So, I check whether he is even still an MP. Yep. Just. Majority now is 293. Down from 4K.

In Dagenham.

Wow. Nice work Corbynistas. What a disaster they have delivered and so far no sign of a iota of contrition.

Why would they be contrite? On their own terms they have triumphed completely. They've got control of the Labour Party. Yes, I dare say they'd probably enjoy a crack at ruining the country as well, but that's of secondary importance surely?

I am pretty certain at this point the Corbynistas' strategy is "eventually the electorate will get tired of the Tories, when they do (even if that's in twenty years' time) we need to be the only game in town they can turn to".

Absolutely. If the commitment is to the cause rather than personal political careers (or even then - plenty of careers of radical extremists in history have looked finished only to turn around dramatically in the future) , then changing direction is very much a short termist approach. Corbynites aren't bothered by the short term. They look at the figures on youth support etc and are prepared to sit it out (of Government) for as long as it takes. The only priority is to ensure that they remain the only alternative. It's also why i doubt they will genuinely entertain any suggestion of PR. There is no point in getting to Government if they can't implement what they want when they get there. Which would require majority Government.

Philip_Thompson

Black_Rook said:

kyf_100 said:

Black_Rook said:

rottenborough said:

Just read an article in Newstatesman which mentioned John Cruddas. An important figure for the next stage of Labour I reckon. Focus on localism, place, family, community, social connections.

So, I check whether he is even still an MP. Yep. Just. Majority now is 293. Down from 4K.

In Dagenham.

Wow. Nice work Corbynistas. What a disaster they have delivered and so far no sign of a iota of contrition.

Why would they be contrite? On their own terms they have triumphed completely. They've got control of the Labour Party. Yes, I dare say they'd probably enjoy a crack at ruining the country as well, but that's of secondary importance surely?

I am pretty certain at this point the Corbynistas' strategy is "eventually the electorate will get tired of the Tories, when they do (even if that's in twenty years' time) we need to be the only game in town they can turn to".

Moderate Labour need to quit and form their own party.

I suppose that this notion might be in their minds, though if so then (hopefully) they'll end up being gravely disappointed.

One would hope that if the only possible choices of Government for the British people were (a) the Tories and (b) the Let's Sacrifice All Babies to Satan Party, people would keep voting Tory no matter how bored they were of them.

The principle having been established, we can only hope that Momentum would keep on being rejected in the same fashion, until a non-catastrophic replacement finally emerged.

In a parallel universe Tom Watson left when Chuka did and organised for moderate Labour MPs to follow him and is now leading the Opposition and favourite to be next Prime Minister.

GIN1138

Philip_Thompson said:

I really don't see the point in paying astroturfers. Their presence was rather obvious.

No offence to OGH but who would actually change their vote based on what's posted on here anyway?

ydoethur

Philip_Thompson said:

Black_Rook said:

kyf_100 said:

Black_Rook said:

rottenborough said:

Just read an article in Newstatesman which mentioned John Cruddas. An important figure for the next stage of Labour I reckon. Focus on localism, place, family, community, social connections.

So, I check whether he is even still an MP. Yep. Just. Majority now is 293. Down from 4K.

In Dagenham.

Wow. Nice work Corbynistas. What a disaster they have delivered and so far no sign of a iota of contrition.

Why would they be contrite? On their own terms they have triumphed completely. They've got control of the Labour Party. Yes, I dare say they'd probably enjoy a crack at ruining the country as well, but that's of secondary importance surely?

I am pretty certain at this point the Corbynistas' strategy is "eventually the electorate will get tired of the Tories, when they do (even if that's in twenty years' time) we need to be the only game in town they can turn to".

Moderate Labour need to quit and form their own party.

I suppose that this notion might be in their minds, though if so then (hopefully) they'll end up being gravely disappointed.

One would hope that if the only possible choices of Government for the British people were (a) the Tories and (b) the Let's Sacrifice All Babies to Satan Party, people would keep voting Tory no matter how bored they were of them.

The principle having been established, we can only hope that Momentum would keep on being rejected in the same fashion, until a non-catastrophic replacement finally emerged.

In a parallel universe Tom Watson left when Chuka did and organised for moderate Labour MPs to follow him and is now leading the Opposition and favourite to be next Prime Minister.

Hmmmm...much as I dislike Corbyn, I’m reluctant to describe that as a better idea.

Philip_Thompson

GIN1138 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

I really don't see the point in paying astroturfers. Their presence was rather obvious.

No offence to OGH but who would actually change their vote based on what's posted on here anyway?

Me actually. I changed my vote in the EU Referendum.

But that certainly wasn't due to astroturfers!

LucyMorales

Philip_Thompson said:

Black_Rook said:

kyf_100 said:

Black_Rook said:

rottenborough said:

Just read an article in Newstatesman which mentioned John Cruddas. An important figure for the next stage of Labour I reckon. Focus on localism, place, family, community, social connections.

So, I check whether he is even still an MP. Yep. Just. Majority now is 293. Down from 4K.

In Dagenham.

Wow. Nice work Corbynistas. What a disaster they have delivered and so far no sign of a iota of contrition.

Why would they be contrite? On their own terms they have triumphed completely. They've got control of the Labour Party. Yes, I dare say they'd probably enjoy a crack at ruining the country as well, but that's of secondary importance surely?

I am pretty certain at this point the Corbynistas' strategy is "eventually the electorate will get tired of the Tories, when they do (even if that's in twenty years' time) we need to be the only game in town they can turn to".

Moderate Labour need to quit and form their own party.

I suppose that this notion might be in their minds, though if so then (hopefully) they'll end up being gravely disappointed.

One would hope that if the only possible choices of Government for the British people were (a) the Tories and (b) the Let's Sacrifice All Babies to Satan Party, people would keep voting Tory no matter how bored they were of them.

The principle having been established, we can only hope that Momentum would keep on being rejected in the same fashion, until a non-catastrophic replacement finally emerged.

In a parallel universe Tom Watson left when Chuka did and organised for moderate Labour MPs to follow him and is now leading the Opposition and favourite to be next Prime Minister.

But the ‘moderates’ have blown it now. Way too late. Even if it is Ian Lavery, Yvette Cooper et al aren’t going to leave now, are they?

LucyMorales

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2016/01/micawber-syndrome-or-why-labour-mps-must-depose-jeremy-corbyn-now

I mean, there was the moment. Was it ever established why they didn’t listen to Haines? it seemed obvious to me then, but as ever, they waited. And waited. And are still waiting...

ydoethur

LucyMorales said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Black_Rook said:

kyf_100 said:

Black_Rook said:

rottenborough said:

Just read an article in Newstatesman which mentioned John Cruddas. An important figure for the next stage of Labour I reckon. Focus on localism, place, family, community, social connections.

So, I check whether he is even still an MP. Yep. Just. Majority now is 293. Down from 4K.

In Dagenham.

Wow. Nice work Corbynistas. What a disaster they have delivered and so far no sign of a iota of contrition.

Why would they be contrite? On their own terms they have triumphed completely. They've got control of the Labour Party. Yes, I dare say they'd probably enjoy a crack at ruining the country as well, but that's of secondary importance surely?

I am pretty certain at this point the Corbynistas' strategy is "eventually the electorate will get tired of the Tories, when they do (even if that's in twenty years' time) we need to be the only game in town they can turn to".

Moderate Labour need to quit and form their own party.

I suppose that this notion might be in their minds, though if so then (hopefully) they'll end up being gravely disappointed.

One would hope that if the only possible choices of Government for the British people were (a) the Tories and (b) the Let's Sacrifice All Babies to Satan Party, people would keep voting Tory no matter how bored they were of them.

The principle having been established, we can only hope that Momentum would keep on being rejected in the same fashion, until a non-catastrophic replacement finally emerged.

In a parallel universe Tom Watson left when Chuka did and organised for moderate Labour MPs to follow him and is now leading the Opposition and favourite to be next Prime Minister.

But the ‘moderates’ have blown it now. Way too late. Even if it is Ian Lavery, Yvette Cooper et al aren’t going to leave now, are they?

No, but Cooper will surely not survive the next election. Even if she isn’t deselected, NPC is due to be broken up, and in any case the constituency boundaries as redrawn would seem to heavily favour the Tories.

alex_

LucyMorales said:

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2016/01/micawber-syndrome-or-why-labour-mps-must-depose-jeremy-corbyn-now

I mean, there was the moment. Was it ever established why they didn’t listen to Haines? it seemed obvious to me then, but as ever, they waited. And waited. And are still waiting...

They did? But they couldn't get rid of him. And then 2017 happened

SandyRentool

Lavery.

Either there is some serious trolling going on or illegal substances are being consumed in vast quantities.

maaarsh

Philip_Thompson said:

I really don't see the point in paying astroturfers. Their presence was rather obvious.

Got to admire those that built models claiming the Tories needed a double figure vote lead for a 1 seat majority. Even seemed to fool a few.

ydoethur

SandyRentool said:

Lavery.

Either there is some serious trolling going on or illegal substances are being consumed in vast quantities.

It is Skwawkbox. Never knowingly published the truth.

kyf_100

SandyRentool said:

Lavery.

Either there is some serious trolling going on or illegal substances are being consumed in vast quantities.

It's somewhat symptomatic of what happens when a leader with a strong cult of personality passes on and there is a power vacuum to replace him.

All the other strong characters were suppressed by the dear leader, leaving only the apparatchiks and ideologically pure but deeply uncharismatic followers.

Honestly, I think if Corbyn announced he was staying on, or stood for re-election, the members would vote him in again.

LucyMorales

kyf_100 said:

SandyRentool said:

Lavery.

Either there is some serious trolling going on or illegal substances are being consumed in vast quantities.

It's somewhat symptomatic of what happens when a leader with a strong cult of personality passes on and there is a power vacuum to replace him.

All the other strong characters were suppressed by the dear leader, leaving only the apparatchiks and ideologically pure but deeply uncharismatic followers.

Honestly, I think if Corbyn announced he was staying on, or stood for re-election, the members would vote him in again.

A Corbynite friend on Facebook is promoting a change.org petition asking precisely that. Quite a few signatures already.

ralphmalph

Philip_Thompson said:

Liverpool's best signing by a long way.

LucyMorales

It would quite wonderful if Jezza did announce that, ‘after a period of reflection’ and because of public demand, he was staying on.

Even then, I don’t suppose Copper et al would leave. Maybe a sullen tweet, but that would be that.

squareroot2

Callaghan's nickname was only as result of the crisis what crisis headline(something he never actually said) and being seen as out of touch durning the Winter of Discontent.

sarissa

TheGreenMachine said:

Liverpool won 1-0 in extra time, does anyone what the betting was?

A Liverpool win was 1.40 decimal odds on Bet365

DavidL

Fuck. Callaghan, Healey, Crossland, Foot, Jenkins, Williams, Benn. Any one of them would be in a different class from anyone in the current field.

MarqueeMark

FrancisUrquhart said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Black_Rook said:

Can anyone think of any conceivable challenger to RLB who's (a) further left and (b) might be able to secure the necessary nominations? If not then she's going to win, surely?

BINGO......

https://twitter.com/skwawkbox/status/1208463138393403392?s=19

Even among the depressingly piss poor list of potential Labour leadership candidates, these two are easily at the bottom of any ability based metric you can think of.

Angela Eagles and Bob Ainsworth move aside - your Dream Team has been bettered.

Luckyguy1983

MattW said:

Foxy said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Theuniondivvie said:

rkrkrk said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/siennamarla/status/1208363907179597824

What actually is a Stalinist? It's unclear to me what this means. Thatcherite I sort of get, even though I suspect there's a bit of a difference now between her disciples and what she thought herself. But is the idea that this guy wants to collectivise farms or murder millions of people?

Now it's just a thing righties call lefties when they're not whining about being called far right. It used to be in vogue though.

I had a history teacher at school who was a lovely guy, but wholly believed there would one day be a revolution of the proletariat, was 100% in favour of Lenin's killings, and made no criticism of Stalin's that I can remember. In friendly company, when views of any stripe can get a tad gamey being a Stalinist isn't unrealistic.

That's Leningrad High for you 👍

Gently suggest that someone genuinely in favour of Stalin's killings does not qualify as a "lovely guy". More some kind of unthinking nutjob who can't see beyond the end of his nose.

Or are we back with Himmler liking children ?

Well he was. We had a lot of debates as you can imagine, and he liked everyone in his class and they liked him despite many of us including me being Tory boys. He wasn't going around plotting the end of capitalism - though he was staunch Labour. My point is, there are a lot of people with extreme views who function very well in normal society and aren't demonstrably sociopathic but do have beliefs that can shock.

brokenwheel

LucyMorales said:

kyf_100 said:

SandyRentool said:

Lavery.

Either there is some serious trolling going on or illegal substances are being consumed in vast quantities.

It's somewhat symptomatic of what happens when a leader with a strong cult of personality passes on and there is a power vacuum to replace him.

All the other strong characters were suppressed by the dear leader, leaving only the apparatchiks and ideologically pure but deeply uncharismatic followers.

Honestly, I think if Corbyn announced he was staying on, or stood for re-election, the members would vote him in again.

A Corbynite friend on Facebook is promoting a change.org petition asking precisely that. Quite a few signatures already.

I've seen plenty saying they'll leave if he does, regardless of who gets elected leader. A small ray of sunshine for the party.

NorthernPowerhouse

MarqueeMark said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Black_Rook said:

Can anyone think of any conceivable challenger to RLB who's (a) further left and (b) might be able to secure the necessary nominations? If not then she's going to win, surely?

BINGO......

https://twitter.com/skwawkbox/status/1208463138393403392?s=19

Even among the depressingly piss poor list of potential Labour leadership candidates, these two are easily at the bottom of any ability based metric you can think of.

Angela Eagles and Bob Ainsworth move aside - your Dream Team has been bettered.

Who can remember this....

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/angela-eagle-labour-leadership-contest-video-jeremy-corbyn-a7131131.html

MarqueeMark

Just watched and enjoyed Le Mans 66 (Ford v Ferrari).

JoJo Rabbit next up. The Wife reckons JoJo Rabbit and The Two Popes are the best of the BAFTA movies she has seen so far.

BigRich

LucyMorales said:

kyf_100 said:

SandyRentool said:

Lavery.

Either there is some serious trolling going on or illegal substances are being consumed in vast quantities.

It's somewhat symptomatic of what happens when a leader with a strong cult of personality passes on and there is a power vacuum to replace him.

All the other strong characters were suppressed by the dear leader, leaving only the apparatchiks and ideologically pure but deeply uncharismatic followers.

Honestly, I think if Corbyn announced he was staying on, or stood for re-election, the members would vote him in again.

A Corbynite friend on Facebook is promoting a change.org petition asking precisely that. Quite a few signatures already.

I thought you might be joking so I checker!

https://www.change.org/p/labour-peers-vote-of-confidence-in-jeremy-corbyn

But no 63,000 people have singed!!!

NorthernPowerhouse

NorthernPowerhouse said:

MarqueeMark said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Black_Rook said:

Can anyone think of any conceivable challenger to RLB who's (a) further left and (b) might be able to secure the necessary nominations? If not then she's going to win, surely?

BINGO......

https://twitter.com/skwawkbox/status/1208463138393403392?s=19

Even among the depressingly piss poor list of potential Labour leadership candidates, these two are easily at the bottom of any ability based metric you can think of.

Angela Eagles and Bob Ainsworth move aside - your Dream Team has been bettered.

Who can remember this....

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/angela-eagle-labour-leadership-contest-video-jeremy-corbyn-a7131131.html

I wonder what her reaction was to the exit poll:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/video/2016/jul/14/theyve-made-him-foreign-secretary-boris-johnsons-elevation-stuns-angela-eagle-video

Sunil_Prasannan

BigRich said:

LucyMorales said:

kyf_100 said:

SandyRentool said:

Lavery.

Either there is some serious trolling going on or illegal substances are being consumed in vast quantities.

It's somewhat symptomatic of what happens when a leader with a strong cult of personality passes on and there is a power vacuum to replace him.

All the other strong characters were suppressed by the dear leader, leaving only the apparatchiks and ideologically pure but deeply uncharismatic followers.

Honestly, I think if Corbyn announced he was staying on, or stood for re-election, the members would vote him in again.

A Corbynite friend on Facebook is promoting a change.org petition asking precisely that. Quite a few signatures already.

I thought you might be joking so I checker!

https://www.change.org/p/labour-peers-vote-of-confidence-in-jeremy-corbyn

But no 63,000 people have singed!!!

Another one here:

https://www.change.org/p/jeremy-corbyn-open-letter-to-jeremy-corbyn-thank-you

Sunil_Prasannan

BigRich said:

LucyMorales said:

kyf_100 said:

SandyRentool said:

Lavery.

Either there is some serious trolling going on or illegal substances are being consumed in vast quantities.

It's somewhat symptomatic of what happens when a leader with a strong cult of personality passes on and there is a power vacuum to replace him.

All the other strong characters were suppressed by the dear leader, leaving only the apparatchiks and ideologically pure but deeply uncharismatic followers.

Honestly, I think if Corbyn announced he was staying on, or stood for re-election, the members would vote him in again.

A Corbynite friend on Facebook is promoting a change.org petition asking precisely that. Quite a few signatures already.

I thought you might be joking so I checker!

https://www.change.org/p/labour-peers-vote-of-confidence-in-jeremy-corbyn

But no 63,000 people have singed!!!

And another:
https://www.change.org/p/jeremy-corbyn-mp-campaign-to-keep-jeremy-corbyn-as-leader

Luckyguy1983

Surely Corbyn himself doesn't want it?

Pulpstar

Lol Ian Lavery 140 on Betfair anyway

kyf_100

BigRich said:

LucyMorales said:

kyf_100 said:

SandyRentool said:

Lavery.

Either there is some serious trolling going on or illegal substances are being consumed in vast quantities.

It's somewhat symptomatic of what happens when a leader with a strong cult of personality passes on and there is a power vacuum to replace him.

All the other strong characters were suppressed by the dear leader, leaving only the apparatchiks and ideologically pure but deeply uncharismatic followers.

Honestly, I think if Corbyn announced he was staying on, or stood for re-election, the members would vote him in again.

A Corbynite friend on Facebook is promoting a change.org petition asking precisely that. Quite a few signatures already.

I thought you might be joking so I checker!

https://www.change.org/p/labour-peers-vote-of-confidence-in-jeremy-corbyn

But no 63,000 people have singed!!!

I assume at least half those 63,000 are signa-tories.

TheGreenMachine

MarqueeMark said:

Just watched and enjoyed Le Mans 66 (Ford v Ferrari).

JoJo Rabbit next up. The Wife reckons JoJo Rabbit and The Two Popes are the best of the BAFTA movies she has seen so far.

I wasn't a fan of Le Mans, knives out is worth a watch.

ralphmalph

Sir Lindsay Hoyle says "Big Ben can bong for Brexit."

ralphmalph

Tele reporting that a Labour Shadow Minister being investigated for sexual assault.

mwadams

ydoethur said:

SandyRentool said:

Lavery.

Either there is some serious trolling going on or illegal substances are being consumed in vast quantities.

It is Skwawkbox. Never knowingly published the truth.

The truth is what we say it is.

BigRich

ralphmalph said:

Sir Lindsay Hoyle says "Big Ben can bong for Brexit."

squareroot2

NorthernPowerhouse said:

MarqueeMark said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Black_Rook said:

Can anyone think of any conceivable challenger to RLB who's (a) further left and (b) might be able to secure the necessary nominations? If not then she's going to win, surely?

BINGO......

https://twitter.com/skwawkbox/status/1208463138393403392?s=19

Even among the depressingly piss poor list of potential Labour leadership candidates, these two are easily at the bottom of any ability based metric you can think of.

Angela Eagles and Bob Ainsworth move aside - your Dream Team has been bettered.

Who can remember this....

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/angela-eagle-labour-leadership-contest-video-jeremy-corbyn-a7131131.html

Where is the Bob Ainsworth interview with J Paxman about troop numbers. A classic interview of our time.

BigRich

ralphmalph said:

Sir Lindsay Hoyle says "Big Ben can bong for Brexit."

Can we have fire works are well?

squareroot2

mwadams said:

ydoethur said:

SandyRentool said:

Lavery.

Either there is some serious trolling going on or illegal substances are being consumed in vast quantities.

It is Skwawkbox. Never knowingly published the truth.

The truth is what we say it is.

How truthful is the Canary online rag.

Gallowgate

I’m on the late York to Newcastle train. God it’s grim.

MarqueeMark

TheGreenMachine said:

MarqueeMark said:

Just watched and enjoyed Le Mans 66 (Ford v Ferrari).

JoJo Rabbit next up. The Wife reckons JoJo Rabbit and The Two Popes are the best of the BAFTA movies she has seen so far.

I wasn't a fan of Le Mans, knives out is worth a watch.

Knives Out is fun, apart from Dan Craig's weird southern accent. Although I worked out very early what was going on.

FrancisUrquhart

ralphmalph said:

Sir Lindsay Hoyle says "Big Ben can bong for Brexit."

If Jo Swinson had won it wouldn't just be Big Ben that was able to bong.

FrancisUrquhart

squareroot2 said:

mwadams said:

ydoethur said:

SandyRentool said:

Lavery.

Either there is some serious trolling going on or illegal substances are being consumed in vast quantities.

It is Skwawkbox. Never knowingly published the truth.

The truth is what we say it is.

How truthful is the Canary online rag.

Full of alternative facts.

MarqueeMark

BigRich said:

LucyMorales said:

kyf_100 said:

SandyRentool said:

Lavery.

Either there is some serious trolling going on or illegal substances are being consumed in vast quantities.

It's somewhat symptomatic of what happens when a leader with a strong cult of personality passes on and there is a power vacuum to replace him.

All the other strong characters were suppressed by the dear leader, leaving only the apparatchiks and ideologically pure but deeply uncharismatic followers.

Honestly, I think if Corbyn announced he was staying on, or stood for re-election, the members would vote him in again.

A Corbynite friend on Facebook is promoting a change.org petition asking precisely that. Quite a few signatures already.

I thought you might be joking so I checker!

https://www.change.org/p/labour-peers-vote-of-confidence-in-jeremy-corbyn

But no 63,000 people have singed!!!

"We won't be bullied by wealthy insular, members of the establishment"

Who could they possibly mean?

FrancisUrquhart

Berlin police have evacuated a Christmas market that was the scene of a fatal attack three years ago to investigate a suspicious object. Two 'Islamist' terror suspects from Syria have been arrested, according to local media reports.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7817565/Two-Islamist-terror-suspects-arrested-Berlin-Christmas-market-evacuated-bomb-alert.html

FrancisUrquhart

ralphmalph said:

Tele reporting that a Labour Shadow Minister being investigated for sexual assault.

To be fair the story sounds very similar to something Clive Lewis was accused of and cleared.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/12/clive-lewis-cleared-labour-sexual-harassment-claim

MarqueeMark

Astonished this hasn't moved the betting markets:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/21/david-lammy-may-stand-labour-first-bame-leader

Floater

MarqueeMark said:

Astonished this hasn't moved the betting markets:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/21/david-lammy-may-stand-labour-first-bame-leader

Oh wow.....

edmundintokyo

OT KLOBUCHAR stanning: This candidate is so good, why is this even a contest

https://twitter.com/IAStartingLine/status/1208475174498115585

rottenborough

https://twitter.com/siennamarla/status/1208475422595395584

Enough. Time for a new left of centre party that can actually provide an opposition.

Floater

FrancisUrquhart said:

Berlin police have evacuated a Christmas market that was the scene of a fatal attack three years ago to investigate a suspicious object. Two 'Islamist' terror suspects from Syria have been arrested, according to local media reports.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7817565/Two-Islamist-terror-suspects-arrested-Berlin-Christmas-market-evacuated-bomb-alert.html

I see a German convert (female) who was just sentenced for supporting a terrorist organisation had also started an apprenticeship as a truck driver - during one driving lesson she told the teacher “I’m going to the next Christmas market.”

Floater

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/siennamarla/status/1208475422595395584

Enough. Time for a new left of centre party that can actually provide an opposition.

Ice picks optional?