politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Swinson’s successor may have only become an MP yesterday
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Swinson’s successor may have only become an MP yesterday
It is a sign of the sheer carnage that the LDs suffered at the general election that one of the names being actively floated as a leader is one of those who have just been elected to the House of Commons.
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First, like President Pack though he may find life slightly astringent in the near future :-).0
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fp for OLBoy
To be fair it's not all of my Labour friends, but it is a couple, and they are the most politically committed (they go on marches and demos). So they are the people who will elect the new leader.
It's grim for Labour.
One of them is a smart artist in her 50s. Very well read. Phd. Etc.
She was convinced that Corbyn would win, even though I spent 20 minutes over drinks, recently, trying to show her the plentiful evidence that he was likely to lose. She just kept shaking her head and saying things like "youthquake".
Now she tells me she is in "shock".
I mean, what can you do?!1 -
Problem for recent LibDem leaders has been holding their own seat - Clegg of course, Farron was a couple of hundred away from losing, and Swinson lost. It has to be a distraction. I assume St Albans will always be a Tory target seat - are there any other LibDem MPs that could be considered fairly safe ?1
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Rebecca Long Bailey and Richard Burgon.
OMFG
OMFFFFFFG
The next Lib Dem leader could be the next non-Tory prime minister.2 -
Why do the LibDems even need a leader who is an MP?
The tiny LibDem contingent is not relevant in Parliament, given the huge Tory majority.
The smart move is to find someone who can raise the LibDem profile in the media, out of Parliament.
E.g., though I don't much care for Gina Miller, she has made herself incredibly well-known as a high-pofile and articulate campaigner (completely outside Parliament).
The new LibDem leader needs that skill-set.0 -
I would be surprised if they managed to take St Albans back next election, unless the libdems drop below their 2017 level.PaulM said:Problem for recent LibDem leaders has been holding their own seat - Clegg of course, Farron was a couple of hundred away from losing, and Swinson lost. It has to be a distraction. I assume St Albans will always be a Tory target seat - are there any other LibDem MPs that could be considered fairly safe ?
All libdem seats in England except Farron's should be safe.0 -
Well, I guess if Labour elect RLB and RB, then the centre-left in the Labour Party will decamp to a new party
The moderates really will have nothing left to lose.1 -
Being of an empirical bent myself I have always struggled to understand people who allow their beliefs to blind them to evidence. The Corbynite Left have a tendency towards this myopia that is quite striking. Hopefully enough of them will have got the message by now, it's only a shame it has taken them this long. Personally I feel sorry for working class people who have voted Tory because I think the Tories will fuck them over while looking after people like me like they always do, but I don't hate or despise them or anything, and since I also vote against my own economic self interest I can't really criticise them for doing the same.Byronic said:fp for OLBoy
To be fair it's not all of my Labour friends, but it is a couple, and they are the most politically committed (they go on marches and demos). So they are the people who will elect the new leader.
It's grim for Labour.
One of them is a smart artist in her 50s. Very well read. Phd. Etc.
She was convinced that Corbyn would win, even though I spent 20 minutes over drinks, recently, trying to show her the plentiful evidence that he was likely to lose. She just kept shaking her head and saying things like "youthquake".
Now she tells me she is in "shock".
I mean, what can you do?!
My view is that 2019 may well turn out to be a good election to lose, similarly to 1992 and for similar reasons (Europe and the economy), but losing it so badly leaves a mountain to climb to win next time. Leadership will matter a lot, and we need to pick wisely. I think Angela Rayner could be a good choice but let's see who stands and who impresses most.
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Ms Cooper won me a bet so I’m immediately well-disposed to her.1
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My own top preference, Wera Hobhouse, looks extremely safe in Bath with a 12,000+ majority.PaulM said:Problem for recent LibDem leaders has been holding their own seat - Clegg of course, Farron was a couple of hundred away from losing, and Swinson lost. It has to be a distraction. I assume St Albans will always be a Tory target seat - are there any other LibDem MPs that could be considered fairly safe ?
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This seems to me a very good idea. The SNP has a party leader who is not in the Commons, and their MPs in the Commons have to make do with a parliamentary leader.YBarddCwsc said:Why do the LibDems even need a leader who is an MP?
The tiny LibDem contingent is not relevant in Parliament, given the huge Tory majority.
The smart move is to find someone who can raise the LibDem profile in the media, out of Parliament.
E.g., though I don't much care for Gina Miller, she has made herself incredibly well-known as a high-pofile and articulate campaigner (completely outside Parliament).
The new LibDem leader needs that skill-set.
By choosing a party leader from among the wider party, the LDs will have a much wider pool of talent to choose from. If the right person rises up, surely there will be no difficulty in getting that person into the Commons if the circumstances turn in the LDs' favour - and circumstances are much more likely to do that with the right leader.
Good afternoon, everyone.0 -
I think I am right in saying at this moment they have held one seat continuously since before 2005. So no, not really, as the seat in question is Orkney.PaulM said:Problem for recent LibDem leaders has been holding their own seat - Clegg of course, Farron was a couple of hundred away from losing, and Swinson lost. It has to be a distraction. I assume St Albans will always be a Tory target seat - are there any other LibDem MPs that could be considered fairly safe ?
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That can't be real? Not really?Byronic said:Rebecca Long Bailey and Richard Burgon.
OMFG
OMFFFFFFG
The next Lib Dem leader could be the next non-Tory prime minister.
Buckle in for 10 more years of the Tories if so.
F*ck my old boots. Burgon. Just no.2 -
Who are these Lib Dems which one speaks of?0
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Yes, I've noticed that a bit as well. A lot of people have used social media to exclude all opinions contrary to their own so there is a drip feed of confirmatory poison that warps their worldview into believing that they are right and everyone agrees with them. People who disagree are in the minority and they are Nazis/Evil/"Literally Hitler". I think social media has definitely contributed to Labour's downfall here, they have lost touch with the calm, considered and quiet voter who doesn't broadcast their politics and emotional state in every sentence, they don't make their lives about which party they vote for, they don't subscribe to the "never kissed a Tory" bullshit and wear their allegiance to their party and hatred of infidels as a badge of honour.Byronic said:fp for OLBoy
To be fair it's not all of my Labour friends, but it is a couple, and they are the most politically committed (they go on marches and demos). So they are the people who will elect the new leader.
It's grim for Labour.
One of them is a smart artist in her 50s. Very well read. Phd. Etc.
She was convinced that Corbyn would win, even though I spent 20 minutes over drinks, recently, trying to show her the plentiful evidence that he was likely to lose. She just kept shaking her head and saying things like "youthquake".
Now she tells me she is in "shock".
I mean, what can you do?!0 -
The quiet majority don't do twitter....and if they do, it is only for a bit of a laugh i.e. funny gifs of Baby Yoda etc.MaxPB said:
Yes, I've noticed that a bit as well. A lot of people have used social media to exclude all opinions contrary to their own so there is a drip feed of confirmatory poison that warps their worldview into believing that they are right and everyone agrees with them. People who disagree are in the minority and they are Nazis/Evil/"Literally Hitler". I think social media has definitely contributed to Labour's downfall here, they have lost touch with the calm, considered and quiet voter who doesn't broadcast their politics and emotional state in every sentence, they don't make their lives about which party they vote for, they don't subscribe to the "never kissed a Tory" bullshit and wear their allegiance to their party and hatred of infidels as a badge of honour.Byronic said:fp for OLBoy
To be fair it's not all of my Labour friends, but it is a couple, and they are the most politically committed (they go on marches and demos). So they are the people who will elect the new leader.
It's grim for Labour.
One of them is a smart artist in her 50s. Very well read. Phd. Etc.
She was convinced that Corbyn would win, even though I spent 20 minutes over drinks, recently, trying to show her the plentiful evidence that he was likely to lose. She just kept shaking her head and saying things like "youthquake".
Now she tells me she is in "shock".
I mean, what can you do?!
I think it is why the Boris driving the JCB through the wall was genius.1 -
Do the Lib Dems need to rush to appoint a new leader?
Let Ed Davey and Baroness Sal Brinton run as interim leaders until after the next local elections and then have a proper leadership contest in advance of the next party conference.
The Lib Dems aren't going to be the centre of attention for a while, so they have the luxury of time to see how Johnson intends to govern and in what direction Labour decides to run in. It also gives the new MPs a chance to make an impression, both amongst MPs and through media appearances.1 -
That’s a much more sensible suggestion than a leader from outside Parliament. Leaving aside the fact the Party’s constitution would need changing, it would emphasise how marginalised they have become.Ratters said:Do the Lib Dems need to rush to appoint a new leader?
Let Ed Davey and Baroness Sal Brinton run as interim leaders until after the next local elections and then have a proper leadership contest in advance of the next party conference.
The Lib Dems aren't going to be the centre of attention for a while, so they have the luxury of time to see how Johnson intends to govern and in what direction Labour decides to run in. It also gives the new MPs a chance to make an impression, both amongst MPs and through media appearances.0 -
If there are any PB-ers who need cheering up... here's a video of the moment the exit poll hit the "Novara Media Team" (Corbyn's online outriders)
https://twitter.com/s8mb/status/1205522270883655680?s=20
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Very successful Lib (alright, I know, I know) leader held that seat.ydoethur said:
I think I am right in saying at this moment they have held one seat continuously since before 2005. So no, not really, as the seat in question is Orkney.PaulM said:Problem for recent LibDem leaders has been holding their own seat - Clegg of course, Farron was a couple of hundred away from losing, and Swinson lost. It has to be a distraction. I assume St Albans will always be a Tory target seat - are there any other LibDem MPs that could be considered fairly safe ?
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Given they are full of Fake News, surprised they didn't have their own exit poll, conducted by centrist_phone, where all the subsamples were reweighted.Byronic said:If there are any PB-ers who need cheering up... here's a video of the moment the exit poll hit the "Novara Media Team" (Corbyn's online outriders)
twitter.com/s8mb/status/1205522270883655680?s=20
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Had the same experience. Perfectly nice decent people generally - the sort of generally would be horrified at being associated with Jew baiters - are just in denial about the reality of the polling figures, and the nature of the people who are the praetorian guard of the party. They seem too intelligent to be just 'useful idiots' but that is how they seem. Feels more like fundamentalist religion to me.Byronic said:fp for OLBoy
To be fair it's not all of my Labour friends, but it is a couple, and they are the most politically committed (they go on marches and demos). So they are the people who will elect the new leader.
It's grim for Labour.
One of them is a smart artist in her 50s. Very well read. Phd. Etc.
She was convinced that Corbyn would win, even though I spent 20 minutes over drinks, recently, trying to show her the plentiful evidence that he was likely to lose. She just kept shaking her head and saying things like "youthquake".
Now she tells me she is in "shock".
I mean, what can you do?!
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We aren't the side that need cheering up.Byronic said:If there are any PB-ers who need cheering up... here's a video of the moment the exit poll hit the "Novara Media Team" (Corbyn's online outriders)
https://twitter.com/s8mb/status/1205522270883655680?s=20
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Who do I appear to be the only pragmatic leftie in the UK0
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They all fucked off and joined the Tories.CorrectHorseBattery said:Who do I appear to be the only pragmatic leftie in the UK
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Watching the clip, they were split spouting that they thought all these seats were going to be decided by 10s /100s of votes. Did they really believe this? Did the Labour internal polling say this? Or were they just spinning bullshit as usual?0
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The rest are too scared of the Twitter hate mob to speak up. You're posting in a place where people will give you a fair hearing as long as what you're saying is well reasoned. The left has cultivated a culture of purity within its circles and it is now coming back to bite you.CorrectHorseBattery said:Who do I appear to be the only pragmatic leftie in the UK
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I wasn’t thinking about its location or status. A seat is a seat, as Grimond shows. I was thinking about the risk of a further SNP surge or Scottish independence.OldKingCole said:
Very successful Lib (alright, I know, I know) leader held that seat.ydoethur said:
I think I am right in saying at this moment they have held one seat continuously since before 2005. So no, not really, as the seat in question is Orkney.PaulM said:Problem for recent LibDem leaders has been holding their own seat - Clegg of course, Farron was a couple of hundred away from losing, and Swinson lost. It has to be a distraction. I assume St Albans will always be a Tory target seat - are there any other LibDem MPs that could be considered fairly safe ?
But as Alistair Carmichael is the MP, the point is moot.0 -
https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/1205862052897665024
Ignoring the outlier that is clearly now 2017, this is fucking depressing0 -
That's a stupid graphic, as it doesn't tell you what the total electorate was.CorrectHorseBattery said:twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/1205862052897665024
Ignoring the outlier that is clearly now 2017, this is fucking depressing0 -
I was talking about Singh's TweetFrancisUrquhart said:
That's a stupid graphic, as it doesn't tell you what the total electorate was.CorrectHorseBattery said:twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/1205862052897665024
Ignoring the outlier that is clearly now 2017, this is fucking depressing0 -
Yes, it's religiosity without God. A faith.algarkirk said:
Had the same experience. Perfectly nice decent people generally - the sort of generally would be horrified at being associated with Jew baiters - are just in denial about the reality of the polling figures, and the nature of the people who are the praetorian guard of the party. They seem too intelligent to be just 'useful idiots' but that is how they seem. Feels more like fundamentalist religion to me.Byronic said:fp for OLBoy
To be fair it's not all of my Labour friends, but it is a couple, and they are the most politically committed (they go on marches and demos). So they are the people who will elect the new leader.
It's grim for Labour.
One of them is a smart artist in her 50s. Very well read. Phd. Etc.
She was convinced that Corbyn would win, even though I spent 20 minutes over drinks, recently, trying to show her the plentiful evidence that he was likely to lose. She just kept shaking her head and saying things like "youthquake".
Now she tells me she is in "shock".
I mean, what can you do?!1 -
Seems to me the LDs have marginalised themselves. In what world does having real experience of government office come to be a negative, disqualifying factor?ydoethur said:
That’s a much more sensible suggestion than a leader from outside Parliament. Leaving aside the fact the Party’s constitution would need changing, it would emphasise how marginalised they have become.Ratters said:Do the Lib Dems need to rush to appoint a new leader?
Let Ed Davey and Baroness Sal Brinton run as interim leaders until after the next local elections and then have a proper leadership contest in advance of the next party conference.
The Lib Dems aren't going to be the centre of attention for a while, so they have the luxury of time to see how Johnson intends to govern and in what direction Labour decides to run in. It also gives the new MPs a chance to make an impression, both amongst MPs and through media appearances.
Before Remain/Revoke/Rejoin pushed everything else out, the LDs USP was PR. PR means coalition government, does it not?
Are the LDs still keen on PR? They should be, since their vote is much higher than the seats they can gain under FPTP.
So their rejection of the one Coalition they did join renders them pointless, in my view.
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Even that fact that it's a bit silly and even naff is why it works quite well. We don't want someone running for PM who is a bit too slick and has clever-clever messaging that only insiders will fully understand.FrancisUrquhart said:
The quiet majority don't do twitter....and if they do, it is only for a bit of a laugh i.e. funny gifs of Baby Yoda etc.MaxPB said:
Yes, I've noticed that a bit as well. A lot of people have used social media to exclude all opinions contrary to their own so there is a drip feed of confirmatory poison that warps their worldview into believing that they are right and everyone agrees with them. People who disagree are in the minority and they are Nazis/Evil/"Literally Hitler". I think social media has definitely contributed to Labour's downfall here, they have lost touch with the calm, considered and quiet voter who doesn't broadcast their politics and emotional state in every sentence, they don't make their lives about which party they vote for, they don't subscribe to the "never kissed a Tory" bullshit and wear their allegiance to their party and hatred of infidels as a badge of honour.Byronic said:fp for OLBoy
To be fair it's not all of my Labour friends, but it is a couple, and they are the most politically committed (they go on marches and demos). So they are the people who will elect the new leader.
It's grim for Labour.
One of them is a smart artist in her 50s. Very well read. Phd. Etc.
She was convinced that Corbyn would win, even though I spent 20 minutes over drinks, recently, trying to show her the plentiful evidence that he was likely to lose. She just kept shaking her head and saying things like "youthquake".
Now she tells me she is in "shock".
I mean, what can you do?!
I think it is why the Boris driving the JCB through the wall was genius.
Remember that Labour poster of Cameron sitting on an Audi Quattro? It was meant to cast Cameron as some sort of Thatcherite wide boy dragging us back to the dark days of the 1980s, that was the intention. I suspect most ordinary people would have just thought "he's meant to be Gene Hunt from that show I like", and "Fire up the Quattro!"0 -
Off the top of my head and without checking, percentages were as follows:
1983 27%
1987 31%
1992 34%
1997 43%
2001 40%
2005 36%
2010 29%
2015 31%
2017 40% (39.99% before rounding)
2019 33%
Which means one leader elected in the last 50 years has topped 40% of the nationwide vote, and even if we cut it to 35% that figure only reaches 2.
By contrast the numbers for the Tories are four and five.
Edit - Callaghan got 36%. One and three.
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2:03 when the girl starts crying because of Blyth Valley is jolly good, as well.FrancisUrquhart said:Watching the clip, they were split spouting that they thought all these seats were going to be decided by 10s /100s of votes. Did they really believe this? Did the Labour internal polling say this? Or were they just spinning bullshit as usual?
They really believe their own bullshit, and they really thought they were going to win. It is mystifying.0 -
https://i.imgur.com/WHUvhiH.gifByronic said:If there are any PB-ers who need cheering up... here's a video of the moment the exit poll hit the "Novara Media Team" (Corbyn's online outriders)
https://twitter.com/s8mb/status/1205522270883655680?s=200 -
Intelligence without common-sense and decency is no use. Can be positively dangerous, in fact.Byronic said:
Yes, it's religiosity without God. A faith.algarkirk said:
Had the same experience. Perfectly nice decent people generally - the sort of generally would be horrified at being associated with Jew baiters - are just in denial about the reality of the polling figures, and the nature of the people who are the praetorian guard of the party. They seem too intelligent to be just 'useful idiots' but that is how they seem. Feels more like fundamentalist religion to me.Byronic said:fp for OLBoy
To be fair it's not all of my Labour friends, but it is a couple, and they are the most politically committed (they go on marches and demos). So they are the people who will elect the new leader.
It's grim for Labour.
One of them is a smart artist in her 50s. Very well read. Phd. Etc.
She was convinced that Corbyn would win, even though I spent 20 minutes over drinks, recently, trying to show her the plentiful evidence that he was likely to lose. She just kept shaking her head and saying things like "youthquake".
Now she tells me she is in "shock".
I mean, what can you do?!
A lot of seemingly intelligent people lack curiosity about the world, the people around them, beyond their own immediate social circle.0 -
This is from the "girl", 2 days before the GE....Apparently John Curtice know nothing.Byronic said:
2:03 when the girl starts crying because of Blyth Valley is jolly good, as well.FrancisUrquhart said:Watching the clip, they were split spouting that they thought all these seats were going to be decided by 10s /100s of votes. Did they really believe this? Did the Labour internal polling say this? Or were they just spinning bullshit as usual?
They really believe their own bullshit, and they really thought they were going to win. It is mystifying.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/10/myth-labour-lost-working-class-pollsters0 -
The parallels with Leavers are obvious.Byronic said:
Yes, it's religiosity without God. A faith.algarkirk said:
Had the same experience. Perfectly nice decent people generally - the sort of generally would be horrified at being associated with Jew baiters - are just in denial about the reality of the polling figures, and the nature of the people who are the praetorian guard of the party. They seem too intelligent to be just 'useful idiots' but that is how they seem. Feels more like fundamentalist religion to me.Byronic said:fp for OLBoy
To be fair it's not all of my Labour friends, but it is a couple, and they are the most politically committed (they go on marches and demos). So they are the people who will elect the new leader.
It's grim for Labour.
One of them is a smart artist in her 50s. Very well read. Phd. Etc.
She was convinced that Corbyn would win, even though I spent 20 minutes over drinks, recently, trying to show her the plentiful evidence that he was likely to lose. She just kept shaking her head and saying things like "youthquake".
Now she tells me she is in "shock".
I mean, what can you do?!1 -
did those economist ternary plots get updated?0
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Doesn't Blair often say that only about 30% of the British people will ever vote for full-on socialism?ydoethur said:Off the top of my head and without checking, percentages were as follows:
1983 27%
1987 31%
1992 34%
1997 43%
2001 40%
2005 36%
2010 29%
2015 31%
2017 40% (39.99% before rounding)
2019 33%
Which means one leader elected in the last 50 years has topped 40% of the nationwide vote, and even if we cut it to 35% that figure only reaches 2.
By contrast the numbers for the Tories are four and five.
Never looked truer than today.0 -
Yes, under FPTP a lot of people seem to change their views to suit whichever party will give them power and a political career.RobD said:
They all fucked off and joined the Tories.CorrectHorseBattery said:Who do I appear to be the only pragmatic leftie in the UK
_________________
From past thread, on student loans
'Personally, I'd phase out the current system and have am extra tenth of a percent or whatever it is on the main and higher bands of income tax. There'd be no student debt at all, and you'd get a far higher contribution from higher earners. People going abroad would be difficult. Maybe if you aren't a UK taxpayer you pay the net of your loan and the payments you have already made through income tax.
The kind of thing Labour should offer. The Tories have had nine years to do something about it, let's see if in five they've done anything.'
This seems like an obvious way out of an all-party Lab/LD/Con mess.
Lab could also write off the ~£100 billion of student loans by announcing that said graduates will pay a slightly higher rate of basic and higher income tax until they retire. This costed proposal couldn't be shot down in flames ... unless I suppose Neil interviews Abbott on the subject, in which case the national student loan debt to be repaid will become £100 million.0 -
I suggested that the Lib Dems widen the selection process last time, 8 MPs or whatever it was then was too small a pool to throw up a first-rate national leader and so it proved.YBarddCwsc said:Why do the LibDems even need a leader who is an MP?
The tiny LibDem contingent is not relevant in Parliament, given the huge Tory majority.
The smart move is to find someone who can raise the LibDem profile in the media, out of Parliament.
E.g., though I don't much care for Gina Miller, she has made herself incredibly well-known as a high-pofile and articulate campaigner (completely outside Parliament).
The new LibDem leader needs that skill-set.0 -
Hang on, that's the bloody elected mayor posting that bollocks. Where do we find them?CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/1205862052897665024
Ignoring the outlier that is clearly now 2017, this is fucking depressing0 -
The thing I always come back to is like a religion how the cult can be so fundamental on some things, while able to faithfully ignore others. Things like LGBT rights are a big thing to young maomentumers, but they see no problem in Jezza standing up for Hamas and Hezbollah. Boris is the spawn of the devil for some of his utterances, but Jezza's are just totally excused. Nothing will dent their belief in the Messiah.Byronic said:
Yes, it's religiosity without God. A faith.algarkirk said:
Had the same experience. Perfectly nice decent people generally - the sort of generally would be horrified at being associated with Jew baiters - are just in denial about the reality of the polling figures, and the nature of the people who are the praetorian guard of the party. They seem too intelligent to be just 'useful idiots' but that is how they seem. Feels more like fundamentalist religion to me.Byronic said:fp for OLBoy
To be fair it's not all of my Labour friends, but it is a couple, and they are the most politically committed (they go on marches and demos). So they are the people who will elect the new leader.
It's grim for Labour.
One of them is a smart artist in her 50s. Very well read. Phd. Etc.
She was convinced that Corbyn would win, even though I spent 20 minutes over drinks, recently, trying to show her the plentiful evidence that he was likely to lose. She just kept shaking her head and saying things like "youthquake".
Now she tells me she is in "shock".
I mean, what can you do?!0 -
Not all of us reject it. The Coalition government was what first made me realise that I'm a Lib Dem... though I accept I'm in the minority on that.AnneJGP said:
Seems to me the LDs have marginalised themselves. In what world does having real experience of government office come to be a negative, disqualifying factor?ydoethur said:
That’s a much more sensible suggestion than a leader from outside Parliament. Leaving aside the fact the Party’s constitution would need changing, it would emphasise how marginalised they have become.Ratters said:Do the Lib Dems need to rush to appoint a new leader?
Let Ed Davey and Baroness Sal Brinton run as interim leaders until after the next local elections and then have a proper leadership contest in advance of the next party conference.
The Lib Dems aren't going to be the centre of attention for a while, so they have the luxury of time to see how Johnson intends to govern and in what direction Labour decides to run in. It also gives the new MPs a chance to make an impression, both amongst MPs and through media appearances.
Before Remain/Revoke/Rejoin pushed everything else out, the LDs USP was PR. PR means coalition government, does it not?
Are the LDs still keen on PR? They should be, since their vote is much higher than the seats they can gain under FPTP.
So their rejection of the one Coalition they did join renders them pointless, in my view.0 -
And ultra-Remainers like you. Who lose all common sense, become hysterically upset over everything, see evil heretics everywhere, and believe in miracles like the Second Coming, sorry, Referendum.AlastairMeeks said:
The parallels with Leavers are obvious.Byronic said:
Yes, it's religiosity without God. A faith.algarkirk said:
Had the same experience. Perfectly nice decent people generally - the sort of generally would be horrified at being associated with Jew baiters - are just in denial about the reality of the polling figures, and the nature of the people who are the praetorian guard of the party. They seem too intelligent to be just 'useful idiots' but that is how they seem. Feels more like fundamentalist religion to me.Byronic said:fp for OLBoy
To be fair it's not all of my Labour friends, but it is a couple, and they are the most politically committed (they go on marches and demos). So they are the people who will elect the new leader.
It's grim for Labour.
One of them is a smart artist in her 50s. Very well read. Phd. Etc.
She was convinced that Corbyn would win, even though I spent 20 minutes over drinks, recently, trying to show her the plentiful evidence that he was likely to lose. She just kept shaking her head and saying things like "youthquake".
Now she tells me she is in "shock".
I mean, what can you do?!2 -
I thought you were desperate for a Corbyn victory CHB?CorrectHorseBattery said:
I was talking about Singh's TweetFrancisUrquhart said:
That's a stupid graphic, as it doesn't tell you what the total electorate was.CorrectHorseBattery said:twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/1205862052897665024
Ignoring the outlier that is clearly now 2017, this is fucking depressing0 -
One of the problems of being a secular society is that people don’t realise when their behaviour / causes end up mimicking almost precisely the actions and behaviours of religious people - but directed at a different idol. They think that because they do not do God they are acting rationally and thoughtfully. When in fact they are behaving in just the same mysterious/irrational/emotional way, harking after a lost Eden or Utopia or Heaven on earth.AlastairMeeks said:
The parallels with Leavers are obvious.Byronic said:
Yes, it's religiosity without God. A faith.algarkirk said:
Had the same experience. Perfectly nice decent people generally - the sort of generally would be horrified at being associated with Jew baiters - are just in denial about the reality of the polling figures, and the nature of the people who are the praetorian guard of the party. They seem too intelligent to be just 'useful idiots' but that is how they seem. Feels more like fundamentalist religion to me.Byronic said:fp for OLBoy
To be fair it's not all of my Labour friends, but it is a couple, and they are the most politically committed (they go on marches and demos). So they are the people who will elect the new leader.
It's grim for Labour.
One of them is a smart artist in her 50s. Very well read. Phd. Etc.
She was convinced that Corbyn would win, even though I spent 20 minutes over drinks, recently, trying to show her the plentiful evidence that he was likely to lose. She just kept shaking her head and saying things like "youthquake".
Now she tells me she is in "shock".
I mean, what can you do?!
Hence the same desire to divide the world into the Believers and the Unbelievers and the same, on occasion, willingness to inflict/endure pain/misery (even death) in order to achieve the ultimate goal.
As GK Chesterton put it: “When people stop believing in God, they don't believe in nothing — they believe in anything.”1 -
I wanted the Tories out and Corbyn was the only way to deliver that - but now it's clear I was deeply wrong.Jason said:
I thought you were desperate for a Corbyn victory CHB?CorrectHorseBattery said:
I was talking about Singh's TweetFrancisUrquhart said:
That's a stupid graphic, as it doesn't tell you what the total electorate was.CorrectHorseBattery said:twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/1205862052897665024
Ignoring the outlier that is clearly now 2017, this is fucking depressing1 -
The real problem with the Coalition was that Clegg was so keen to prove to the world that coalition government could work, that he sacrificed everything to this objective. The result was that Lib Dem spokesmen were given the task of announcing all the bad news, and the Tories took all the credit at the end of the day for the good, sensible policies that the Lib Dems pushed through - even against Tory opposition!AnneJGP said:
Seems to me the LDs have marginalised themselves. In what world does having real experience of government office come to be a negative, disqualifying factor?ydoethur said:
That’s a much more sensible suggestion than a leader from outside Parliament. Leaving aside the fact the Party’s constitution would need changing, it would emphasise how marginalised they have become.Ratters said:Do the Lib Dems need to rush to appoint a new leader?
Let Ed Davey and Baroness Sal Brinton run as interim leaders until after the next local elections and then have a proper leadership contest in advance of the next party conference.
The Lib Dems aren't going to be the centre of attention for a while, so they have the luxury of time to see how Johnson intends to govern and in what direction Labour decides to run in. It also gives the new MPs a chance to make an impression, both amongst MPs and through media appearances.
Before Remain/Revoke/Rejoin pushed everything else out, the LDs USP was PR. PR means coalition government, does it not?
Are the LDs still keen on PR? They should be, since their vote is much higher than the seats they can gain under FPTP.
So their rejection of the one Coalition they did join renders them pointless, in my view.
The Tories were ruthless and untrustworthy. And so were Labour - even campaigning against the Coalition on policies which had been in their own manifesto.
All is not lost. If I have placed AnneJGP correctly, the Lib Dems were second in this election in her constituency, and she has a good Lib Dem run council.0 -
Fair enough.CorrectHorseBattery said:
I wanted the Tories out and Corbyn was the only way to deliver that - but now it's clear I was deeply wrong.Jason said:
I thought you were desperate for a Corbyn victory CHB?CorrectHorseBattery said:
I was talking about Singh's TweetFrancisUrquhart said:
That's a stupid graphic, as it doesn't tell you what the total electorate was.CorrectHorseBattery said:twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/1205862052897665024
Ignoring the outlier that is clearly now 2017, this is fucking depressing0 -
I see our friend centrist_phone has gone all tin-foil hat. Apparently there is a coordinated long term deep state undercover disinformation campaign run on places like Facebook against anybody who dares to propose left wing politics.
I think he needs to change his twitter handle.2 -
There are plenty of us, but not enough clearly.CorrectHorseBattery said:Who do I appear to be the only pragmatic leftie in the UK
1 -
He must wince ever time he looks at his name judging by the amount he rants about centrists ruining the election.FrancisUrquhart said:I see our friend centrist_phone has gone all tin-foil hat. Apparently there is a coordinated long term deep state undercover disinformation campaign run on places like Facebook against anybody who dares to propose left wing politics.
I think he needs to change his twitter handle.0 -
My assertion that we won't actually be leaving the EU is starting to look a bit flaky.
It was based on Bozo having to compromise on a second referendum amendment which was then won by Remain, or a GONU taking over and having a 2nd ref.
Wrong as usual. Good job I don't bet.0 -
"Looks like the polls didn't pick up the level of swing in NE and Midlands to Con."FrancisUrquhart said:I see our friend centrist_phone has gone all tin-foil hat. Apparently there is a coordinated long term deep state undercover disinformation campaign run on places like Facebook against anybody who dares to propose left wing politics.
I think he needs to change his twitter handle.
errr, they all at least hinted at it!0 -
Jess Phillips next leader.... of the LibDems?YBarddCwsc said:
Well, I guess if Labour elect RLB and RB, then the centre-left in the Labour Party will decamp to a new party
The moderates really will have nothing left to lose.0 -
About 3 days out from the GE, he didn't take it too well when somebody pointed out that PBers were taking the pissRobD said:
He must wince ever time he looks at his name judging by the amount he rants about centrists ruining the election.FrancisUrquhart said:I see our friend centrist_phone has gone all tin-foil hat. Apparently there is a coordinated long term deep state undercover disinformation campaign run on places like Facebook against anybody who dares to propose left wing politics.
I think he needs to change his twitter handle.0 -
I don't think the people who will be cheered up by that need cheering up though.Byronic said:If there are any PB-ers who need cheering up... here's a video of the moment the exit poll hit the "Novara Media Team" (Corbyn's online outriders)
https://twitter.com/s8mb/status/1205522270883655680?s=200 -
1
-
That, though, is partly the result of the party/parties of the centre during that period being the parties of the left of centre. And therefore competing more with Labour for votes.ydoethur said:Off the top of my head and without checking, percentages were as follows:
1983 27%
1987 31%
1992 34%
1997 43%
2001 40%
2005 36%
2010 29%
2015 31%
2017 40% (39.99% before rounding)
2019 33%
Which means one leader elected in the last 50 years has topped 40% of the nationwide vote, and even if we cut it to 35% that figure only reaches 2.
By contrast the numbers for the Tories are four and five.
Edit - Callaghan got 36%. One and three.
Of course you might then argue that is the result of the Conservative party being comparatively non ideological, which means they are more likely to hold on to their centrists. (Naturally there are numerous counter-examples to that argument, but they probably don’t invalidate it.)
Teasing apart political cause and effect is never entirely simple.0 -
Based on your posts on here, if there were more people like you in Labour, it probably wouldn’t be in the mess it’s in.CorrectHorseBattery said:
I wanted the Tories out and Corbyn was the only way to deliver that - but now it's clear I was deeply wrong.Jason said:
I thought you were desperate for a Corbyn victory CHB?CorrectHorseBattery said:
I was talking about Singh's TweetFrancisUrquhart said:
That's a stupid graphic, as it doesn't tell you what the total electorate was.CorrectHorseBattery said:twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/1205862052897665024
Ignoring the outlier that is clearly now 2017, this is fucking depressing2 -
Thought this was rather good. Quite telling as well that Jon says it is now ok to criticise Corbyn.
https://twitter.com/Jamin2g/status/12056107589330083840 -
Funny how these pragmatic lefties were all Corbyn apologists before he lost badly...2
-
New LibDem strategy - don't bother fighting elections, just wait for defections. It sort of worked in the last parliament.TudorRose said:
Jess Phillips next leader.... of the LibDems?YBarddCwsc said:
Well, I guess if Labour elect RLB and RB, then the centre-left in the Labour Party will decamp to a new party
The moderates really will have nothing left to lose.1 -
Bless.FrancisUrquhart said:
About 3 days out from the GE, he didn't take it too well when somebody pointed out that PBers were taking the pissRobD said:
He must wince ever time he looks at his name judging by the amount he rants about centrists ruining the election.FrancisUrquhart said:I see our friend centrist_phone has gone all tin-foil hat. Apparently there is a coordinated long term deep state undercover disinformation campaign run on places like Facebook against anybody who dares to propose left wing politics.
I think he needs to change his twitter handle.
Let's all remember this chestnut:
https://twitter.com/centrist_phone/status/12037265809478656000 -
TBH that 'lack' always strikes me as a waste of intellectual capacity. It's not confined to the left either. Plenty of people on the right seem to believe what's in the Mail or Telegraph without apparently wondering anything.Cyclefree said:
Intelligence without common-sense and decency is no use. Can be positively dangerous, in fact.Byronic said:
Yes, it's religiosity without God. A faith.algarkirk said:
Had the same experience. Perfectly nice decent people generally - the sort of generally would be horrified at being associated with Jew baiters - are just in denial about the reality of the polling figures, and the nature of the people who are the praetorian guard of the party. They seem too intelligent to be just 'useful idiots' but that is how they seem. Feels more like fundamentalist religion to me.Byronic said:fp for OLBoy
To be fair it's not all of my Labour friends, but it is a couple, and they are the most politically committed (they go on marches and demos). So they are the people who will elect the new leader.
It's grim for Labour.
One of them is a smart artist in her 50s. Very well read. Phd. Etc.
She was convinced that Corbyn would win, even though I spent 20 minutes over drinks, recently, trying to show her the plentiful evidence that he was likely to lose. She just kept shaking her head and saying things like "youthquake".
Now she tells me she is in "shock".
I mean, what can you do?!
A lot of seemingly intelligent people lack curiosity about the world, the people around them, beyond their own immediate social circle.0 -
In the case of Jamie he was the momentum candidate who somehow beat the other options.SandyRentool said:
Hang on, that's the bloody elected mayor posting that bollocks. Where do we find them?CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/1205862052897665024
Ignoring the outlier that is clearly now 2017, this is fucking depressing
What I do remember was he got almost zero second preferences during the election.0 -
This “ultra-Remainer” has for a very long time been stating that two things are required before this country can move on: Remainers to accept that they lost and Leavers to accept that Brexit is a shitshow. Remainers are showing signs of their bit. Leavers are showing none of theirs, despite precisely none of the touted benefits of a Leave vote having emerged and many vices having crept out of the woodwork.Byronic said:
And ultra-Remainers like you. Who lose all common sense, become hysterically upset over everything, see evil heretics everywhere, and believe in miracles like the Second Coming, sorry, Referendum.AlastairMeeks said:
The parallels with Leavers are obvious.Byronic said:
Yes, it's religiosity without God. A faith.algarkirk said:
Had the same experience. Perfectly nice decent people generally - the sort of generally would be horrified at being associated with Jew baiters - are just in denial about the reality of the polling figures, and the nature of the people who are the praetorian guard of the party. They seem too intelligent to be just 'useful idiots' but that is how they seem. Feels more like fundamentalist religion to me.Byronic said:fp for OLBoy
To be fair it's not all of my Labour friends, but it is a couple, and they are the most politically committed (they go on marches and demos). So they are the people who will elect the new leader.
It's grim for Labour.
One of them is a smart artist in her 50s. Very well read. Phd. Etc.
She was convinced that Corbyn would win, even though I spent 20 minutes over drinks, recently, trying to show her the plentiful evidence that he was likely to lose. She just kept shaking her head and saying things like "youthquake".
Now she tells me she is in "shock".
I mean, what can you do?!1 -
THE REAL END....of any credibility.RobD said:
Bless.FrancisUrquhart said:
About 3 days out from the GE, he didn't take it too well when somebody pointed out that PBers were taking the pissRobD said:
He must wince ever time he looks at his name judging by the amount he rants about centrists ruining the election.FrancisUrquhart said:I see our friend centrist_phone has gone all tin-foil hat. Apparently there is a coordinated long term deep state undercover disinformation campaign run on places like Facebook against anybody who dares to propose left wing politics.
I think he needs to change his twitter handle.
Let's all remember this chestnut:
twitter.com/centrist_phone/status/12037265809478656000 -
The Corbynista attack line on the centrists was that they lost millions of votes.eek said:
In the case of Jamie he was the momentum candidate who somehow beat the other options.SandyRentool said:
Hang on, that's the bloody elected mayor posting that bollocks. Where do we find them?CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/1205862052897665024
Ignoring the outlier that is clearly now 2017, this is fucking depressing
What I do remember was he got almost zero second preferences during the election.0 -
Clegg's problem was that he was too 'liberal'; his opponent (or in this case 'colleague') was as honest as himself and could perhaps be right.ClippP said:
The real problem with the Coalition was that Clegg was so keen to prove to the world that coalition government could work, that he sacrificed everything to this objective. The result was that Lib Dem spokesmen were given the task of announcing all the bad news, and the Tories took all the credit at the end of the day for the good, sensible policies that the Lib Dems pushed through - even against Tory opposition!AnneJGP said:
Seems to me the LDs have marginalised themselves. In what world does having real experience of government office come to be a negative, disqualifying factor?ydoethur said:
That’s a much more sensible suggestion than a leader from outside Parliament. Leaving aside the fact the Party’s constitution would need changing, it would emphasise how marginalised they have become.Ratters said:Do the Lib Dems need to rush to appoint a new leader?
Let Ed Davey and Baroness Sal Brinton run as interim leaders until after the next local elections and then have a proper leadership contest in advance of the next party conference.
The Lib Dems aren't going to be the centre of attention for a while, so they have the luxury of time to see how Johnson intends to govern and in what direction Labour decides to run in. It also gives the new MPs a chance to make an impression, both amongst MPs and through media appearances.
Before Remain/Revoke/Rejoin pushed everything else out, the LDs USP was PR. PR means coalition government, does it not?
Are the LDs still keen on PR? They should be, since their vote is much higher than the seats they can gain under FPTP.
So their rejection of the one Coalition they did join renders them pointless, in my view.
The Tories were ruthless and untrustworthy. And so were Labour - even campaigning against the Coalition on policies which had been in their own manifesto.
All is not lost. If I have placed AnneJGP correctly, the Lib Dems were second in this election in her constituency, and she has a good Lib Dem run council.
Nice guys etc.0 -
Is the peoples vote campaign being disbanded? they haven't updated their website since November and they stopped tweeting on polling day..Byronic said:
And ultra-Remainers like you. Who lose all common sense, become hysterically upset over everything, see evil heretics everywhere, and believe in miracles like the Second Coming, sorry, Referendum.AlastairMeeks said:
The parallels with Leavers are obvious.Byronic said:
Yes, it's religiosity without God. A faith.algarkirk said:
Had the same experience. Perfectly nice decent people generally - the sort of generally would be horrified at being associated with Jew baiters - are just in denial about the reality of the polling figures, and the nature of the people who are the praetorian guard of the party. They seem too intelligent to be just 'useful idiots' but that is how they seem. Feels more like fundamentalist religion to me.Byronic said:fp for OLBoy
To be fair it's not all of my Labour friends, but it is a couple, and they are the most politically committed (they go on marches and demos). So they are the people who will elect the new leader.
It's grim for Labour.
One of them is a smart artist in her 50s. Very well read. Phd. Etc.
She was convinced that Corbyn would win, even though I spent 20 minutes over drinks, recently, trying to show her the plentiful evidence that he was likely to lose. She just kept shaking her head and saying things like "youthquake".
Now she tells me she is in "shock".
I mean, what can you do?!0 -
That goes for the majority of the PLP too. They all saw him as a useful idiot when he served a purpose - ie to stop Brexit. Now all the hand wringers like Benn and Kinnock are trying desperately to disassociate themselves from him.brokenwheel said:Funny how these pragmatic lefties were all Corbyn apologists before he lost badly...
It's a defeat they all have to own, because they all supported Corbyn and McDonnell, either overtly or passively.
0 -
Yeah, they said they would no longer be campaigning on that platform.DeClare said:
Is the peoples vote campaign being disbanded? they haven't updated their website since November and they stopped tweeting on polling day..Byronic said:
And ultra-Remainers like you. Who lose all common sense, become hysterically upset over everything, see evil heretics everywhere, and believe in miracles like the Second Coming, sorry, Referendum.AlastairMeeks said:
The parallels with Leavers are obvious.Byronic said:
Yes, it's religiosity without God. A faith.algarkirk said:
Had the same experience. Perfectly nice decent people generally - the sort of generally would be horrified at being associated with Jew baiters - are just in denial about the reality of the polling figures, and the nature of the people who are the praetorian guard of the party. They seem too intelligent to be just 'useful idiots' but that is how they seem. Feels more like fundamentalist religion to me.Byronic said:fp for OLBoy
To be fair it's not all of my Labour friends, but it is a couple, and they are the most politically committed (they go on marches and demos). So they are the people who will elect the new leader.
It's grim for Labour.
One of them is a smart artist in her 50s. Very well read. Phd. Etc.
She was convinced that Corbyn would win, even though I spent 20 minutes over drinks, recently, trying to show her the plentiful evidence that he was likely to lose. She just kept shaking her head and saying things like "youthquake".
Now she tells me she is in "shock".
I mean, what can you do?!0 -
What's really stupid about that is that all the issues that he is reweighting for are things pollsters themselves consider. It's not like pollsters are simply doing the same thing they did at the previous election, and the election before that, and the one before that...FrancisUrquhart said:
THE REAL END....of any credibility.RobD said:
Bless.FrancisUrquhart said:
About 3 days out from the GE, he didn't take it too well when somebody pointed out that PBers were taking the pissRobD said:
He must wince ever time he looks at his name judging by the amount he rants about centrists ruining the election.FrancisUrquhart said:I see our friend centrist_phone has gone all tin-foil hat. Apparently there is a coordinated long term deep state undercover disinformation campaign run on places like Facebook against anybody who dares to propose left wing politics.
I think he needs to change his twitter handle.
Let's all remember this chestnut:
twitter.com/centrist_phone/status/12037265809478656001 -
0
-
The Lib Dems have a path back to the highs of Kennedy, they have 100 targets for 2024. And I wonder if now Brexit is out the way whether some votes in the SW might not return to them.0
-
Perhaps they could give Tim Farnon another go. At least people know his name.1
-
Ya think?glw said:
What's really stupid about that is that all the issues that he is reweighting for are things pollsters themselves consider. It's not like pollsters are simply doing the same thing they did at the previous election, and the election before that, and the one before that...FrancisUrquhart said:
THE REAL END....of any credibility.RobD said:
Bless.FrancisUrquhart said:
About 3 days out from the GE, he didn't take it too well when somebody pointed out that PBers were taking the pissRobD said:
He must wince ever time he looks at his name judging by the amount he rants about centrists ruining the election.FrancisUrquhart said:I see our friend centrist_phone has gone all tin-foil hat. Apparently there is a coordinated long term deep state undercover disinformation campaign run on places like Facebook against anybody who dares to propose left wing politics.
I think he needs to change his twitter handle.
Let's all remember this chestnut:
twitter.com/centrist_phone/status/1203726580947865600 0 -
One upside to Brexit is that Northern voters have abandoned their devotion to a useless Labour party, and are trying new tastes and flavours. This can only be good for democracy, and might even be good for northern voters. Because, Brexit.AlastairMeeks said:
This “ultra-Remainer” has for a very long time been stating that two things are required before this country can move on: Remainers to accept that they lost and Leavers to accept that Brexit is a shitshow. Remainers are showing signs of their bit. Leavers are showing none of theirs, despite precisely none of the touted benefits of a Leave vote having emerged and many vices having crept out of the woodwork.Byronic said:
And ultra-Remainers like you. Who lose all common sense, become hysterically upset over everything, see evil heretics everywhere, and believe in miracles like the Second Coming, sorry, Referendum.AlastairMeeks said:
The parallels with Leavers are obvious.Byronic said:
Yes, it's religiosity without God. A faith.algarkirk said:
Had the same experience. Perfectly nice decent people generally - the sort of generally would be horrified at being associated with Jew baiters - are just in denial about the reality of the polling figures, and the nature of the people who are the praetorian guard of the party. They seem too intelligent to be just 'useful idiots' but that is how they seem. Feels more like fundamentalist religion to me.Byronic said:fp for OLBoy
To be fair it's not all of my Labour friends, but it is a couple, and they are the most politically committed (they go on marches and demos). So they are the people who will elect the new leader.
It's grim for Labour.
One of them is a smart artist in her 50s. Very well read. Phd. Etc.
She was convinced that Corbyn would win, even though I spent 20 minutes over drinks, recently, trying to show her the plentiful evidence that he was likely to lose. She just kept shaking her head and saying things like "youthquake".
Now she tells me she is in "shock".
I mean, what can you do?!
By the way this is EXACTLY what sovereignty Leavers predicted: that Brexit would pump fresh blood into our moribund body politic. And so it is.1 -
https://twitter.com/HarlickGabriel/status/1205879523658608640
Christ this nasty piece of work says she wants to be a doctor? Her parents must be so very proud of her.1 -
They all kept quiet during the campaign so that the Momentumites can't blame them and their disloyalty for the defeat. Now they are free to say what they want.Jason said:
That goes for the majority of the PLP too. They all saw him as a useful idiot when he served a purpose - ie to stop Brexit. Now all the hand wringers like Benn and Kinnock are trying desperately to disassociate themselves from him.brokenwheel said:Funny how these pragmatic lefties were all Corbyn apologists before he lost badly...
It's a defeat they all have to own, because they all supported Corbyn and McDonnell, either overtly or passively.
This means that the blame is being spattered round in all sorts of random directions - the media, social media and, most bizarrely, London Remainers who pretty much represent the mainstream view of Momentum.
0 -
On topic: if we take it for granted that the Lib Dems aren't going to pick a Scottish leader again (because 1. all the Scottish seats are marginals and 2. Scotland might have gone by 2024,) and that we're not going to get the Second Coming of Farron either, then that only leaves six possible candidates in the running.
If we then also disqualify Davey (on the grounds of being a Coalition veteran and of having managed to lose against Jo Swinson in a two-horse race,) Olney (on the grounds of having previously lost against Zac Goldsmith in a two-horse race) and Moran (for boyfriend slapping) then that only leaves Wera Hobhouse and the two total newbies standing. Thus it would not be at all surprising if one of them were to win it, surely?0 -
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/labour
Opportunities for Labour if they don't pick a shit leader again0 -
The comments running down the side are priceless.....Byronic said:If there are any PB-ers who need cheering up... here's a video of the moment the exit poll hit the "Novara Media Team" (Corbyn's online outriders)
https://twitter.com/s8mb/status/1205522270883655680?s=20
This time last week I was just finishing canvassing a road in a council ward that the LibDems and the Tories battle over in the locals.
The returns were:
Firm Con 28, Prob Con 2, Poss Con 6
Firm Labour 1
Firm LibDem 1
Not Conservative/Wouldn't say 8
Didn't want to share before the polls closed, but I did say I was serene.....0 -
Is that the same Tim Farnon who's related to Siegfried and Tristan?Chris said:Perhaps they could give Tim Farnon another go. At least people know his name.
0 -
So in 2024, Labour need to make about 60 gains in order to make any decent progress.
That requires a 5.5% swing, has any leader ever achieved such a thing on the Labour side before?0 -
Another posho by the sounds of it.....getting very angry that working class people dare to vote Tory.Jason said:twitter.com/HarlickGabriel/status/1205879523658608640
Christ this nasty piece of work says she wants to be a doctor? Her parents must be so very proud of her.
Labour's Maomentum Cult problem summed up. Compare to the reasonable Labour voices, your Alan Johnson's, Caroline Flint, Lisa Nandy etc.1 -
Ugh.Squared, indeed cubed! I'd be a bit more sympathetic if she didn't sound as though she'd come direct from Roedean or similar.Jason said:https://twitter.com/HarlickGabriel/status/1205879523658608640
Christ this nasty piece of work says she wants to be a doctor? Her parents must be so very proud of her.1 -
Off Topic
A conservative approach to climate change. Look for Mrs Thatcher's contribution around 2:30. It's 20 minutes long but worth watching all the way through.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D99qI42KGB00 -
She's fucking hot thoJason said:https://twitter.com/HarlickGabriel/status/1205879523658608640
Christ this nasty piece of work says she wants to be a doctor? Her parents must be so very proud of her.1 -
My wife works in a private school and yesterday, they had to send a mid 20s teacher home as she was distraught at Corbyn being hammered. She kept saying she couldn't understand how people could not vote for Labour's "progressive policies".Byronic said:fp for OLBoy
To be fair it's not all of my Labour friends, but it is a couple, and they are the most politically committed (they go on marches and demos). So they are the people who will elect the new leader.
It's grim for Labour.
One of them is a smart artist in her 50s. Very well read. Phd. Etc.
She was convinced that Corbyn would win, even though I spent 20 minutes over drinks, recently, trying to show her the plentiful evidence that he was likely to lose. She just kept shaking her head and saying things like "youthquake".
Now she tells me she is in "shock".
I mean, what can you do?!0 -
The challenge for those Labour members from the soft left and centre left is to avoid being expelled from the party prior to the leadership election.
Ripping the piss out of one's Momentum comrades is unlikely to end well.0 -
Burgon and RLB IIRC have to get the support of at least 35 Labour MPs to even get to the membership. After 2015, I don’t see Labour MPs backing candidates that they couldn’t live with as leader of the party.
There’s a lot of American commentary on Twitter about this election. One comment that struck me as odd was Bill Maher’s tweet. Sanders and Warren are nowhere near as ‘out there’ as Corbyn is.0 -
What would be good for democracy would be not having a Prime Minister with untrammelled power who led a direct assault on Parliamentary democracy this year. Because Brexit.Byronic said:
One upside to Brexit is that Northern voters have abandoned their devotion to a useless Labour party, and are trying new tastes and flavours. This can only be good for democracy, and might even be good for northern voters. Because, Brexit.AlastairMeeks said:
This “ultra-Remainer” has for a very long time been stating that two things are required before this country can move on: Remainers to accept that they lost and Leavers to accept that Brexit is a shitshow. Remainers are showing signs of their bit. Leavers are showing none of theirs, despite precisely none of the touted benefits of a Leave vote having emerged and many vices having crept out of the woodwork.Byronic said:
And ultra-Remainers like you. Who lose all common sense, become hysterically upset over everything, see evil heretics everywhere, and believe in miracles like the Second Coming, sorry, Referendum.AlastairMeeks said:
The parallels with Leavers are obvious.Byronic said:
Yes, it's religiosity without God. A faith.algarkirk said:
Had the same experience. Perfectly nice decent people generally - the sort of generally would be horrified at being associated with Jew baiters - are just in denial about the reality of the polling figures, and the nature of the people who are the praetorian guard of the party. They seem too intelligent to be just 'useful idiots' but that is how they seem. Feels more like fundamentalist religion to me.Byronic said:fp for OLBoy
To be fair it's not all of my Labour friends, but it is a couple, and they are the most politically committed (they go on marches and demos). So they are the people who will elect the new leader.
It's grim for Labour.
One of them is a smart artist in her 50s. Very well read. Phd. Etc.
She was convinced that Corbyn would win, even though I spent 20 minutes over drinks, recently, trying to show her the plentiful evidence that he was likely to lose. She just kept shaking her head and saying things like "youthquake".
Now she tells me she is in "shock".
I mean, what can you do?!
By the way this is EXACTLY what sovereignty Leavers predicted: that Brexit would pump fresh blood into our moribund body politic. And so it is.2 -
She probably represents the mindset of a substantial fraction, if not a majority, of the radicalised Labour Party membership. Which is why all you need to do to deduce the identity of the most likely next Labour leader is go through whatever shortlist makes it through to the vote and pick whichever name on it is the most extreme.Jason said:https://twitter.com/HarlickGabriel/status/1205879523658608640
Christ this nasty piece of work says she wants to be a doctor? Her parents must be so very proud of her.
It would be nice to think that Labour would've had a big enough shock to bring it back to its senses, but the problem is that Labour may have no sense left to be brought back to.
Meanwhile, for those desperately trying to palm off all the blame on Brexit:
https://twitter.com/tpgcolson/status/12055134034665021440 -
Remain seems to have now accepted the result. But I do fear that if Brexit ends up being a shitshow (and it seems like even the best predictions are that Brexit will be marginally worse than Remaining for our economy) it will not be the fault of the Government with a massive majority, it will be the fault of others for not believing enough.
Some of the worst Brexiteers are as bad as the most rabid lefties, only for other reasons.0
