politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Swinson’s successor may have only become an MP yesterday
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Swinson’s successor may have only become an MP yesterday
It is a sign of the sheer carnage that the LDs suffered at the general election that one of the names being actively floated as a leader is one of those who have just been elected to the House of Commons.
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To be fair it's not all of my Labour friends, but it is a couple, and they are the most politically committed (they go on marches and demos). So they are the people who will elect the new leader.
It's grim for Labour.
One of them is a smart artist in her 50s. Very well read. Phd. Etc.
She was convinced that Corbyn would win, even though I spent 20 minutes over drinks, recently, trying to show her the plentiful evidence that he was likely to lose. She just kept shaking her head and saying things like "youthquake".
Now she tells me she is in "shock".
I mean, what can you do?!
OMFG
OMFFFFFFG
The next Lib Dem leader could be the next non-Tory prime minister.
The tiny LibDem contingent is not relevant in Parliament, given the huge Tory majority.
The smart move is to find someone who can raise the LibDem profile in the media, out of Parliament.
E.g., though I don't much care for Gina Miller, she has made herself incredibly well-known as a high-pofile and articulate campaigner (completely outside Parliament).
The new LibDem leader needs that skill-set.
All libdem seats in England except Farron's should be safe.
Well, I guess if Labour elect RLB and RB, then the centre-left in the Labour Party will decamp to a new party
The moderates really will have nothing left to lose.
My view is that 2019 may well turn out to be a good election to lose, similarly to 1992 and for similar reasons (Europe and the economy), but losing it so badly leaves a mountain to climb to win next time. Leadership will matter a lot, and we need to pick wisely. I think Angela Rayner could be a good choice but let's see who stands and who impresses most.
By choosing a party leader from among the wider party, the LDs will have a much wider pool of talent to choose from. If the right person rises up, surely there will be no difficulty in getting that person into the Commons if the circumstances turn in the LDs' favour - and circumstances are much more likely to do that with the right leader.
Good afternoon, everyone.
Buckle in for 10 more years of the Tories if so.
F*ck my old boots. Burgon. Just no.
I think it is why the Boris driving the JCB through the wall was genius.
Let Ed Davey and Baroness Sal Brinton run as interim leaders until after the next local elections and then have a proper leadership contest in advance of the next party conference.
The Lib Dems aren't going to be the centre of attention for a while, so they have the luxury of time to see how Johnson intends to govern and in what direction Labour decides to run in. It also gives the new MPs a chance to make an impression, both amongst MPs and through media appearances.
https://twitter.com/s8mb/status/1205522270883655680?s=20
But as Alistair Carmichael is the MP, the point is moot.
Ignoring the outlier that is clearly now 2017, this is fucking depressing
Before Remain/Revoke/Rejoin pushed everything else out, the LDs USP was PR. PR means coalition government, does it not?
Are the LDs still keen on PR? They should be, since their vote is much higher than the seats they can gain under FPTP.
So their rejection of the one Coalition they did join renders them pointless, in my view.
Remember that Labour poster of Cameron sitting on an Audi Quattro? It was meant to cast Cameron as some sort of Thatcherite wide boy dragging us back to the dark days of the 1980s, that was the intention. I suspect most ordinary people would have just thought "he's meant to be Gene Hunt from that show I like", and "Fire up the Quattro!"
1983 27%
1987 31%
1992 34%
1997 43%
2001 40%
2005 36%
2010 29%
2015 31%
2017 40% (39.99% before rounding)
2019 33%
Which means one leader elected in the last 50 years has topped 40% of the nationwide vote, and even if we cut it to 35% that figure only reaches 2.
By contrast the numbers for the Tories are four and five.
Edit - Callaghan got 36%. One and three.
They really believe their own bullshit, and they really thought they were going to win. It is mystifying.
A lot of seemingly intelligent people lack curiosity about the world, the people around them, beyond their own immediate social circle.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/10/myth-labour-lost-working-class-pollsters
Never looked truer than today.
_________________
From past thread, on student loans
'Personally, I'd phase out the current system and have am extra tenth of a percent or whatever it is on the main and higher bands of income tax. There'd be no student debt at all, and you'd get a far higher contribution from higher earners. People going abroad would be difficult. Maybe if you aren't a UK taxpayer you pay the net of your loan and the payments you have already made through income tax.
The kind of thing Labour should offer. The Tories have had nine years to do something about it, let's see if in five they've done anything.'
This seems like an obvious way out of an all-party Lab/LD/Con mess.
Lab could also write off the ~£100 billion of student loans by announcing that said graduates will pay a slightly higher rate of basic and higher income tax until they retire. This costed proposal couldn't be shot down in flames ... unless I suppose Neil interviews Abbott on the subject, in which case the national student loan debt to be repaid will become £100 million.
Hence the same desire to divide the world into the Believers and the Unbelievers and the same, on occasion, willingness to inflict/endure pain/misery (even death) in order to achieve the ultimate goal.
As GK Chesterton put it: “When people stop believing in God, they don't believe in nothing — they believe in anything.”
The Tories were ruthless and untrustworthy. And so were Labour - even campaigning against the Coalition on policies which had been in their own manifesto.
All is not lost. If I have placed AnneJGP correctly, the Lib Dems were second in this election in her constituency, and she has a good Lib Dem run council.
I think he needs to change his twitter handle.
It was based on Bozo having to compromise on a second referendum amendment which was then won by Remain, or a GONU taking over and having a 2nd ref.
Wrong as usual. Good job I don't bet.
errr, they all at least hinted at it!
https://twitter.com/ExStrategist/status/1205869855439753218
Of course you might then argue that is the result of the Conservative party being comparatively non ideological, which means they are more likely to hold on to their centrists. (Naturally there are numerous counter-examples to that argument, but they probably don’t invalidate it.)
Teasing apart political cause and effect is never entirely simple.
https://twitter.com/Jamin2g/status/1205610758933008384
Let's all remember this chestnut:
https://twitter.com/centrist_phone/status/1203726580947865600
What I do remember was he got almost zero second preferences during the election.
Nice guys etc.
It's a defeat they all have to own, because they all supported Corbyn and McDonnell, either overtly or passively.
Hahahaha this made me laugh.
By the way this is EXACTLY what sovereignty Leavers predicted: that Brexit would pump fresh blood into our moribund body politic. And so it is.
Christ this nasty piece of work says she wants to be a doctor? Her parents must be so very proud of her.
This means that the blame is being spattered round in all sorts of random directions - the media, social media and, most bizarrely, London Remainers who pretty much represent the mainstream view of Momentum.
If we then also disqualify Davey (on the grounds of being a Coalition veteran and of having managed to lose against Jo Swinson in a two-horse race,) Olney (on the grounds of having previously lost against Zac Goldsmith in a two-horse race) and Moran (for boyfriend slapping) then that only leaves Wera Hobhouse and the two total newbies standing. Thus it would not be at all surprising if one of them were to win it, surely?
Opportunities for Labour if they don't pick a shit leader again
This time last week I was just finishing canvassing a road in a council ward that the LibDems and the Tories battle over in the locals.
The returns were:
Firm Con 28, Prob Con 2, Poss Con 6
Firm Labour 1
Firm LibDem 1
Not Conservative/Wouldn't say 8
Didn't want to share before the polls closed, but I did say I was serene.....
That requires a 5.5% swing, has any leader ever achieved such a thing on the Labour side before?
Labour's Maomentum Cult problem summed up. Compare to the reasonable Labour voices, your Alan Johnson's, Caroline Flint, Lisa Nandy etc.
A conservative approach to climate change. Look for Mrs Thatcher's contribution around 2:30. It's 20 minutes long but worth watching all the way through.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D99qI42KGB0
Ripping the piss out of one's Momentum comrades is unlikely to end well.
There’s a lot of American commentary on Twitter about this election. One comment that struck me as odd was Bill Maher’s tweet. Sanders and Warren are nowhere near as ‘out there’ as Corbyn is.
It would be nice to think that Labour would've had a big enough shock to bring it back to its senses, but the problem is that Labour may have no sense left to be brought back to.
Meanwhile, for those desperately trying to palm off all the blame on Brexit:
https://twitter.com/tpgcolson/status/1205513403466502144
Some of the worst Brexiteers are as bad as the most rabid lefties, only for other reasons.