politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What Next for the Parties?

tyson said:

Jason said:

Byronic said:

kyf_100 said:

Byronic said:

kyf_100 said:

Byronic said:

I've drunk FIVE bottles of vintage champagne

No, SIX

SEVEN

If only the great SeanT were still here you could challenge him to a drinking contest. He was a truly legendary drinker, but I feel he has nothing on you.

In all seriousness, no election victory has ever delighted me more.

In one go: we got Brexit finally sorted, we delivered five years of good Tory government, and, most of all, we utterly wiped out a vile, evil, anti-Semitic, neo-Marxist opposition

It is GLORIOUS. Morally right and emotionally climactic. This is the political version of Flintoff's Ashes: politics will never be this good again.

But, just once in my life, it WAS this good.

What I am enjoying most the reaction from my friends.

I'm quiet in real life. I keep my politics to myself. It's sort of like your wedding tackle. You just don't get it out at family gatherings or wave it round in the pub.

So people talk to me. And they assume I'm one of them. I just listen silently and nod.

And they tell me how they're devastated. How they didn't see it coming. How the Tories are all evil and everyone who votes for them is evil too.

SNIP

Totally right.

I went to a Remainery Xmas lunch of journalists, painters, artists, etc, today

Early on, one woman confided in me (presuming that I agreed with her Remainerry outlook) that Boris won the vote because his voters, the poor white English, are "just stupid". She sniggered at me, looking for agreement.

I told her to fuck off (in terms) and go and talk to someone else.

These people are detestable snobs. They need to be defeated time and again. They need to be expelled from politics.

My missus' family are mainly Labour (her sister is a Corbynista), I remember how they abused her when she mentioned voting Tory. Yes, her own family abused her. It took me all my willpower and strength not to do something stupid I was so disgusted.

Not heard a fucking peep from any of them recently, and my missus made me promise not to goad them, so I won't. But boy I would fucking LOVE to.

How could you wed a Tory? Jesus...having to wake up every morning and stare into the face of a fucking Tory...like Groundhog Day, but more evil

I would love to think that is a pathetic attempt at a joke, but I seem to recall other posts.

StuartDickson said:

TheGreenMachine said:

In terms of Northern Ireland parties, I think it's onwards and upwards for The Alliance Party and SDLP can only grow their vote share. I think those DUP safe seats are no longer safe.

How do you rate the chances of Irish reunification within the next 10 years?

(Many thanks for your NI posts, especially your comprehensive, and objective, analysis early on in the campaign.)

No worries. On the Irish unity subject, I was informed a 3-4 years ago that it would take 10-12 years before we can even have a poll / referendum. Also, SF would need to improve their seat count in the republic which is probably inevitable.

I don't think SDLP are too interested in it although the two newly elected MPs are definitely the best for their Constituencies as the result proved. Alliance would probably be very accepting of an all Ireland. I also think if Arlene Foster's father wasn't murdered by the opposition (I.R.A), I'd say she would be a lot more accepting of united Ireland.

Some unionists have said there will definitely be a referendum. There should be a vote within the next 8-10 years and as for the chances of winning, there actually fairly decent specially with the demographic changes in the North.

Foxy said:

Jason said:

Gabs3 said:

Byronic said:

MarqueeMark said:

Byronic said:

I'm still high from last night. What a result.

SORTED

Sure you don't want to start worrying that 70 election courts might overrule the result?

Heh

Hehehehehehehehe

If I had to select downsides to this election, the defeats of Caroline Flint and Jo Swinson would be in there.

Two good women, the second was unlucky, the first, Flint, was absolutely undeserving. They are a loss.

But on the whole...

Hehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehe

Caroline Flint was the only MP I could see as capable of winning back the North for Labour.

Agree about Flint, but not Swinson. That shrill speech she gave today was full of bitterness and self pity. Not a single ounce of contrition. Bit like Corbyn.

Her life's work had just collapsed, have some compassion. For all her faults she genuinely believes in what she advocates. There is little place for raw honesty in modern politics.

There are a lot of very nasty people who genuinely believe in what they are doing. I'm not suggesting that Swinson is nasty, more that believing in something is not an excuse for arrant stupidity.

Byronic said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Byronic said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Well, the Conservatives’ wholly undeserved success was dismal last night and the triumphalism of their supporters tonight is still less edifying. Enjoy your moment. Meanwhile, the country is going up shit creek.

We won, you didn't.

It's SO satisfying

That warm feeling you have is from having pissed yourself.

Chill out and grow up and accept defeat like an adult.

Everyone has lost. The country has continued its losing run since the referendum. It’s going to continue for the foreseeable future.

rottenborough said:

Andy_JS said:

kyf_100 said:

Byronic said:

kyf_100 said:

Byronic said:

I've drunk FIVE bottles of vintage champagne

No, SIX

SEVEN

If only the great SeanT were still here you could challenge him to a drinking contest. He was a truly legendary drinker, but I feel he has nothing on you.

In all seriousness, no election victory has ever delighted me more.

In one go: we got Brexit finally sorted, we delivered five years of good Tory government, and, most of all, we utterly wiped out a vile, evil, anti-Semitic, neo-Marxist opposition

It is GLORIOUS. Morally right and emotionally climactic. This is the political version of Flintoff's Ashes: politics will never be this good again.

But, just once in my life, it WAS this good.

What I am enjoying most is the reaction from my friends.

I'm quiet in real life. I keep my politics to myself. It's sort of like your wedding tackle. You just don't get it out at family gatherings or wave it round in the pub.

So people talk to me. And they assume I'm one of them. I just listen silently and nod.

And they tell me how they're devastated. How they didn't see it coming. How the Tories are all evil and everyone who votes for them is evil too.

They are shell shocked.

They just don't see it. They blame the working class. "Idiots". They blame the media. "Billionaires". They never stop for a moment's introspection to wonder why they lost.

It is utter derangement and it makes me feel as if they will double down in 2024. The lack of self awareness is extraordinary. I think it may be a very long time before a Blair figure emerges. A very long time indeed.

Working class idiots and billionaires are strange bedfellows.

Somewhere on the newly elected Lab back bench there is a young Blair.

Or maybe elected in 2024.

He's best advised to keep quiet then

ReggieCide said:

Foxy said:

Jason said:

Gabs3 said:

Byronic said:

MarqueeMark said:

Byronic said:

I'm still high from last night. What a result.

SORTED

Sure you don't want to start worrying that 70 election courts might overrule the result?

Heh

Hehehehehehehehe

If I had to select downsides to this election, the defeats of Caroline Flint and Jo Swinson would be in there.

Two good women, the second was unlucky, the first, Flint, was absolutely undeserving. They are a loss.

But on the whole...

Hehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehehe

Caroline Flint was the only MP I could see as capable of winning back the North for Labour.

Agree about Flint, but not Swinson. That shrill speech she gave today was full of bitterness and self pity. Not a single ounce of contrition. Bit like Corbyn.

Her life's work had just collapsed, have some compassion. For all her faults she genuinely believes in what she advocates. There is little place for raw honesty in modern politics.

There are a lot of very nasty people who genuinely believe in what they are doing. I'm not suggesting that Swinson is nasty, more that believing in something is not an excuse for arrant stupidity.

Certainly so, we see that with Cummings for example. I was just pointing out that honestly espousing your beliefs has once again been proved to be an Achilles heel in a politician. Meanwhile opportunistic mendacity has triumphed.

Andy_JS said:

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1205606592261087235

I agree....I have a feeling that the whole Corbyn thing is just a noise...last night put them to the sword

Andy_JS- I wish I had betted on your constant observations during the polling...you consistently queried why the gap between the polls was not being reflected in seat differences....

Jason said:

Agree about Flint, but not Swinson. That shrill speech she gave today was full of bitterness and self pity. Not a single ounce of contrition. Bit like Corbyn.

Gosh it was a dragging whine wasn't it? I felt my remaining sympathy being sucked out of me.

Nor introspection, and viewing the Lib Dems - with centuries of history behind them!! - as pretty much just a messianic vehicle for Stop Brexit.

This really shouldn't be news for the Lib Dem leadership because they have all seen this data, their analysts and strategists must have pored over it, but think back to the dark days of 2015 when the party suffered their cataclysmic post-coalition crash. They lost 66% of their vote and all but 8 of their 49 MPs.

Those voters who stuck with the Lib Dems in 2015 were by definition among the very loyalest supporters the party had, and in 2016 around one third of them voted for Leave. Ashcroft's polling in "Well, you did ask" reckons 31%, yougov reckon 30% here. Even among the 2017 Lib Dem voting coalition, 20% were Leave voters. If you make it The Remain Party then you cutting links with hundreds of thousands of people who vote for you despite disagreeing with what's become one of your core principles. There must be something else in the party than that one cause alone, something pretty good and deep and visceral, something connected with your great traditions, otherwise those people wouldn't keep on supporting you. And it's a single-issue cause that, at least in its current incarnation, is rapidly hurtling towards irrelevance.

Why not explore and rediscover what those grand driving values might be, rather than hinting at one in five of your voters, even maybe one in three of your potential and previous electoral coalition you hope to build on, that you think they're under-educated racist insufficiently-diverse easily-conned idiots.

(I admit: partly angry because I have at times in the past been a Lib Dem voter, have always been a very open-minded swing voter, and am an absolutely passionate Leaver. And if it's necessary to wave my papers at the commissar to prove my political worthiness as part of their new coalition of the liberal educated urban professionals, I've got multiple degree certificates I can shove in their face - but I don't weight my worth by them nor wrap my identity politics around them.)

AlastairMeeks said:

noisywinter said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Well, the Conservatives’ wholly undeserved success was dismal last night and the triumphalism of their supporters tonight is still less edifying. Enjoy your moment. Meanwhile, the country is going up shit creek.

Yeah, the surge in the pound and the FTSE 250 shows we are heading for disaster...

Leavers have spent the time since the referendum earnestly arguing how good a low pound is for the economy. Make your minds up.

Good for the stock market actually - I won't bother to try to explain.

TheGreenMachine said:

StuartDickson said:

TheGreenMachine said:

In terms of Northern Ireland parties, I think it's onwards and upwards for The Alliance Party and SDLP can only grow their vote share. I think those DUP safe seats are no longer safe.

How do you rate the chances of Irish reunification within the next 10 years?

(Many thanks for your NI posts, especially your comprehensive, and objective, analysis early on in the campaign.)

No worries. On the Irish unity subject, I was informed a 3-4 years ago that it would take 10-12 years before we can even have a poll / referendum. Also, SF would need to improve their seat count in the republic which is probably inevitable.

I don't think SDLP are too interested in it although the two newly elected MPs are definitely the best for their Constituencies as the result proved. Alliance would probably be very accepting of an all Ireland. I also think if Arlene Foster's father wasn't murdered by the opposition (I.R.A), I'd say she would be a lot more accepting of united Ireland.

Some unionists have said there will definitely be a referendum. There should be a vote within the next 8-10 years and as for the chances of winning, there actually fairly decent specially with the demographic changes in the North.

Unless we get a Nationalist majority at Stormont (if it ever reconvenes) there will be no Irish unity poll and even yesterday the DUP and UUP combined got 43% to 38% for SF and the SDLP combined

tyson said:

Jason said:

Byronic said:

kyf_100 said:

Byronic said:

kyf_100 said:

Byronic said:

I've drunk FIVE bottles of vintage champagne

No, SIX

SEVEN

If only the great SeanT were still here you could challenge him to a drinking contest. He was a truly legendary drinker, but I feel he has nothing on you.

In all seriousness, no election victory has ever delighted me more.

In one go: we got Brexit finally sorted, we delivered five years of good Tory government, and, most of all, we utterly wiped out a vile, evil, anti-Semitic, neo-Marxist opposition

It is GLORIOUS. Morally right and emotionally climactic. This is the political version of Flintoff's Ashes: politics will never be this good again.

But, just once in my life, it WAS this good.

What I am enjoying most the reaction from my friends.

I'm quiet in real life. I keep my politics to myself. It's sort of like your wedding tackle. You just don't get it out at family gatherings or wave it round in the pub.

So people talk to me. And they assume I'm one of them. I just listen silently and nod.

And they tell me how they're devastated. How they didn't see it coming. How the Tories are all evil and everyone who votes for them is evil too.

They are shell shocked.

They just don't see it. They blame the working class. "Idiots". They blame the media. "Billionaires". They never stop for a

Totally right.

I went to a Remainery Xmas lunch of journalists, painters, artists, etc, today

Early on, one woman confided in me (presuming that I agreed with her Remainerry outlook) that Boris won the vote because his voters, the poor white English, are "just stupid". She sniggered at me, looking for agreement.

I told her to fuck off (in terms) and go and talk to someone else.

These people are detestable snobs. They need to be defeated time and again. They need to be expelled from politics.

My missus' family are mainly Labour (her sister is a Corbynista), I remember how they abused her when she mentioned voting Tory. Yes, her own family abused her. It took me all my willpower and strength not to do something stupid I was so disgusted.

Not heard a fucking peep from any of them recently, and my missus made me promise not to goad them, so I won't. But boy I would fucking LOVE to.

How could you wed a Tory? Jesus...having to wake up every morning and stare into the face of a fucking Tory...like Groundhog Day, but more evil

44% of the country now apparently evil

HYUFD said:

TheGreenMachine said:

StuartDickson said:

TheGreenMachine said:

In terms of Northern Ireland parties, I think it's onwards and upwards for The Alliance Party and SDLP can only grow their vote share. I think those DUP safe seats are no longer safe.

How do you rate the chances of Irish reunification within the next 10 years?

(Many thanks for your NI posts, especially your comprehensive, and objective, analysis early on in the campaign.)

No worries. On the Irish unity subject, I was informed a 3-4 years ago that it would take 10-12 years before we can even have a poll / referendum. Also, SF would need to improve their seat count in the republic which is probably inevitable.

I don't think SDLP are too interested in it although the two newly elected MPs are definitely the best for their Constituencies as the result proved. Alliance would probably be very accepting of an all Ireland. I also think if Arlene Foster's father wasn't murdered by the opposition (I.R.A), I'd say she would be a lot more accepting of united Ireland.

Some unionists have said there will definitely be a referendum. There should be a vote within the next 8-10 years and as for the chances of winning, there actually fairly decent specially with the demographic changes in the North.

Unless we get a Nationalist majority at Stormont (if it ever reconvenes) there will be no Irish unity poll and even yesterday the DUP and UUP combined got 43% to 38% for SF and the SDLP combined

Do you think a nationalist majority is an automatic united Ireland?

AlastairMeeks said:

Byronic said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Byronic said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Well, the Conservatives’ wholly undeserved success was dismal last night and the triumphalism of their supporters tonight is still less edifying. Enjoy your moment. Meanwhile, the country is going up shit creek.

We won, you didn't.

It's SO satisfying

That warm feeling you have is from having pissed yourself.

Chill out and grow up and accept defeat like an adult.

Everyone has lost. The country has continued its losing run since the referendum. It’s going to continue for the foreseeable future.

If you're thinking about it, we'd understand.

TheGreenMachine said:

HYUFD said:

TheGreenMachine said:

StuartDickson said:

TheGreenMachine said:

In terms of Northern Ireland parties, I think it's onwards and upwards for The Alliance Party and SDLP can only grow their vote share. I think those DUP safe seats are no longer safe.

How do you rate the chances of Irish reunification within the next 10 years?

(Many thanks for your NI posts, especially your comprehensive, and objective, analysis early on in the campaign.)

No worries. On the Irish unity subject, I was informed a 3-4 years ago that it would take 10-12 years before we can even have a poll / referendum. Also, SF would need to improve their seat count in the republic which is probably inevitable.

I don't think SDLP are too interested in it although the two newly elected MPs are definitely the best for their Constituencies as the result proved. Alliance would probably be very accepting of an all Ireland. I also think if Arlene Foster's father wasn't murdered by the opposition (I.R.A), I'd say she would be a lot more accepting of united Ireland.

Some unionists have said there will definitely be a referendum. There should be a vote within the next 8-10 years and as for the chances of winning, there actually fairly decent specially with the demographic changes in the North.

Unless we get a Nationalist majority at Stormont (if it ever reconvenes) there will be no Irish unity poll and even yesterday the DUP and UUP combined got 43% to 38% for SF and the SDLP combined

Do you think Irish majority is automatic united Ireland?

No, given the SNP got a majority at Holyrood in 2011 on 45% but that majority was required for an Independence referendum before they could even begin to ask Westminster for one

Byronic said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Byronic said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Byronic said:

Well, the Conservatives’ wholly undeserved success was dismal last night and the triumphalism of their supporters tonight is still less edifying. Enjoy your moment. Meanwhile, the country is going up shit creek.

We won, you didn't.

It's SO satisfying

That warm feeling you have is from having pissed yourself.

Chill out and grow up and accept defeat like an adult.

Everyone has lost. The country has continued its losing run since the referendum. It’s going to continue for the foreseeable future.

++++++

I know that's your opinion (tho you have debased the coinage of that, of late)

The victory last night upends this opinion. Your diagnosis = further chaos, a hung parliament, Scottish indy etc

Instead we will get 5 years (probably 10, given the majority) of Tory government, Brexit will be delivered (probably soft, I suspect), a new Scottish referendum will be outlawed, Britain will grow and heal. And, I suspect, prosper.

Rejoice.



My diagnosis is that a reactionary anti-immigrant government is going to pander relentlessly to its new base, erecting harder borders and favouring bloated corporatism. Brexit was always going to sap the strength of the country and now it will sap its character too. Anyone with drive is going to be looking elsewhere.

We've all been talking about a lack of self awareness - Dick Burgon must be one of the greatest exponents of that particular trait. He is truly demented.

HYUFD said:

TheGreenMachine said:

HYUFD said:

TheGreenMachine said:

StuartDickson said:

TheGreenMachine said:

In terms of Northern Ireland parties, I think it's onwards and upwards for The Alliance Party and SDLP can only grow their vote share. I think those DUP safe seats are no longer safe.

How do you rate the chances of Irish reunification within the next 10 years?

(Many thanks for your NI posts, especially your comprehensive, and objective, analysis early on in the campaign.)

No worries. On the Irish unity subject, I was informed a 3-4 years ago that it would take 10-12 years before we can even have a poll / referendum. Also, SF would need to improve their seat count in the republic which is probably inevitable.

I don't think SDLP are too interested in it although the two newly elected MPs are definitely the best for their Constituencies as the result proved. Alliance would probably be very accepting of an all Ireland. I also think if Arlene Foster's father wasn't murdered by the opposition (I.R.A), I'd say she would be a lot more accepting of united Ireland.

Some unionists have said there will definitely be a referendum. There should be a vote within the next 8-10 years and as for the chances of winning, there actually fairly decent specially with the demographic changes in the North.

Unless we get a Nationalist majority at Stormont (if it ever reconvenes) there will be no Irish unity poll and even yesterday the DUP and UUP combined got 43% to 38% for SF and the SDLP combined

Do you think Irish majority is automatic united Ireland?

No, given the SNP got a majority at Holyrood in 2011 on 45% but that majority was required for an Independence referendum before they could even begin to ask Westminster for one

We could be heading for an Easter election in northern Ireland and I believe in the next assembly election there is above average chance of a nationalist majority as uup are finished atm.

Stark_Dawning said:

kle4 said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Well, the Conservatives’ wholly undeserved success was dismal last night and the triumphalism of their supporters tonight is still less edifying. Enjoy your moment. Meanwhile, the country is going up shit creek.

Im sure it will last longer than a day, but bemoaning a party's supporters being triumphant literally one day after a landslide win for that party is just plain stupid. The country is on a very tricky precipice and I think they cannot handle it well, but whinging about triumphalism within 24 hrs of the win? Pathetic. I think one day of celebration can be bared before we get on a high horse.

When Tone won in 1997 it seemed that the triumphalism and celebration went on for about six years. I suspect Boris's honeymoon will be much shorter with 'Voted Tory once but never again' soon to be a familiar cry. This isn't because Boris is necessarily going to screw things up; rather, when your appeal is based on nothing other than a cheeky smile you're dangerously exposed to political elements. And Boris will have few allies beyond the fair-weather sailors.

What are you implying - cheeky smile - sailors?

glw said:

kyf_100 said:

The post below that in my feed was from another friend who didn't understand why Corbyn had lost when they had seen "literally no-one" post anything in support of the Conservatives. The mind truly boggles.

By yesterday evening I was thinking it was at best 50/50 for a hung parliament or very slim majority. All the "news" and all the anecdata looked very bad. You find yourself thinking "maybe lots of people do like Corbyn". By 10pm I was seriously worried.

Now I am no fan of Boris, and think his Brexit deal is worse than May's, but for me that is small beer compared to having someone with Corbyn's views and instincts running the country, never mind the crazy economic policies.

Thankfully it turns out that there are many more of us who don't like the look of Corbyn than you might think from listening to the media in general, and social media in particular. I have never been so relieved by an election result before.

I don't know if Boris and the Tories have earned their majority, and the odds of them letting us down are probably high, but I absolutely certain that the UK dodged a bullet yesterday.

I hope Labour gets its house in order before the next general election, the options this time were dismal, we could do with at least one half-decent party running next time.

There seems to be a difference between the right and the left. On the right, we are individualists, we have our opinions, know we have a right to them, don't need to post them online for all and sundry to approve. Whereas the left are collectivists and their views have to be validated in a circle-jerk of people approving. To my mind, if you post a political opinion on Facebook you are looking for an argument, but they seem aghast if you reply with an "actually no-one's selling the NHS to anyone, and I'd quite like some of that American healthcare"

Byronic said:

AlastairMeeks said:

YBarddCwsc said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Well, the Conservatives’ wholly undeserved success was dismal last night and the triumphalism of their supporters tonight is still less edifying. Enjoy your moment. Meanwhile, the country is going up shit creek.

Ever wondered, perhaps, whether it was the behaviour of some entitled Remainers that has helped navigate the country up shit creek ?

After the Brexit Referendum, your call for a London Independence Party because the rights and interest of Londoners had not been respected was the most idiotic misreading of the political situation since the downfall of the East European dictators, still praising Communism to the skies as the Wall fell and the citizenry rioted.

I am not very happy with what has happened, but I can at least see that the blame has to be pretty widely sprayed around.

A London Independence Party would remain one of the best ways out of this sorry mess. The inbred yokels who expect to be cosseted by the country’s breadwinners could indulge their backward-looking fantasies at their own expense. Meanwhile, the bits of the country that actually work could be invested in properly.

"inbred yokels"???

Just stop. Really.

STOP

You'd know better than most...you're from Cornwall

Apparently the GB shares were as follows:

Con 44.9, Lab 33.1, LD 11.8, Brexit 2.1, Green 2.8, SNP 3.9, PC 0.5

That 44.9% figure for the Tories is identical to the Conservative GB share in 1979 when Mrs Thatcher was first elected PM.

Stark_Dawning said:

kle4 said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Well, the Conservatives’ wholly undeserved success was dismal last night and the triumphalism of their supporters tonight is still less edifying. Enjoy your moment. Meanwhile, the country is going up shit creek.

Im sure it will last longer than a day, but bemoaning a party's supporters being triumphant literally one day after a landslide win for that party is just plain stupid. The country is on a very tricky precipice and I think they cannot handle it well, but whinging about triumphalism within 24 hrs of the win? Pathetic. I think one day of celebration can be bared before we get on a high horse.

When Tone won in 1997 it seemed that the triumphalism and celebration went on for about six years. I suspect Boris's honeymoon will be much shorter with 'Voted Tory once but never again' soon to be a familiar cry. This isn't because Boris is necessarily going to screw things up; rather, when your appeal is based on nothing other than a cheeky smile you're dangerously exposed to political elements. And Boris will have few allies beyond the fair-weather sailors.

If there is a charismatic, moderate centre left leader at the next general election after 14 years of Tory rule they could even win, if not Boris will probably be there for a decade with his new National, patriotic, economically centrist Tory party

JohnLilburne said:

glw said:

kyf_100 said:

The post below that in my feed was from another friend who didn't understand why Corbyn had lost when they had seen "literally no-one" post anything in support of the Conservatives. The mind truly boggles.

By yesterday evening I was thinking it was at best 50/50 for a hung parliament or very slim majority. All the "news" and all the anecdata looked very bad. You find yourself thinking "maybe lots of people do like Corbyn". By 10pm I was seriously worried.

Now I am no fan of Boris, and think his Brexit deal is worse than May's, but for me that is small beer compared to having someone with Corbyn's views and instincts running the country, never mind the crazy economic policies.

Thankfully it turns out that there are many more of us who don't like the look of Corbyn than you might think from listening to the media in general, and social media in particular. I have never been so relieved by an election result before.

I don't know if Boris and the Tories have earned their majority, and the odds of them letting us down are probably high, but I absolutely certain that the UK dodged a bullet yesterday.

I hope Labour gets its house in order before the next general election, the options this time were dismal, we could do with at least one half-decent party running next time.

There seems to be a difference between the right and the left. On the right, we are individualists, we have our opinions, know we have a right to them, don't need to post them online for all and sundry to approve. Whereas the left are collectivists and their views have to be validated in a circle-jerk of people approving. To my mind, if you post a political opinion on Facebook you are looking for an argument, but they seem aghast if you reply with an "actually no-one's selling the NHS to anyone, and I'd quite like some of that American healthcare"

Facebook is a self censoring echo chamber programmed to void common sense.

TheGreenMachine said:

HYUFD said:

TheGreenMachine said:

HYUFD said:

TheGreenMachine said:

HYUFD said:

TheGreenMachine said:

StuartDickson said:

TheGreenMachine said:

In terms of Northern Ireland parties, I think it's onwards and upwards for The Alliance Party and SDLP can only grow their vote share. I think those DUP safe seats are no longer safe.

How do you rate the chances of Irish reunification within the next 10 years?

(Many thanks for your NI posts, especially your comprehensive, and objective, analysis early on in the campaign.)

No worries. On the Irish unity subject, I was informed a 3-4 years ago that it would take 10-12 years before we can even have a poll / referendum. Also, SF would need to improve their seat count in the republic which is probably inevitable.

I don't think SDLP are too interested in it although the two newly elected MPs are definitely the best for their Constituencies as the result proved. Alliance would probably be very accepting of an all Ireland. I also think if Arlene Foster's father wasn't murdered by the opposition (I.R.A), I'd say she would be a lot more accepting of united Ireland.

Some unionists have said there will definitely be a referendum. There should be a vote within the next 8-10 years and as for the chances of winning, there actually fairly decent specially with the demographic changes in the North.

Unless we get a Nationalist majority at Stormont (if it ever reconvenes) there will be no Irish unity poll and even yesterday the DUP and UUP combined got 43% to 38% for SF and the SDLP combined

Do you think Irish majority is automatic united Ireland?

No, given the SNP got a majority at Holyrood in 2011 on 45% but that majority was required for an Independence referendum before they could even begin to ask Westminster for one

We could be heading for an Easter election in northern Ireland and I believe in the next assembly election there is above average chance of a nationalist majority as uup are finished atm.

Unlikely, especially with PR for Stormont and the Alliance Party neutral on Irish unity, the Nationalists need to get 10% more than they got yesterday in Northern Ireland for a Stormont majority

I don't think the Alliance Party are neutral although they pretend to be.

They are especially as their only MP represents a 90% Unionist seat, North Down

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Faiza Shaheen in the bitter barn on Newsnight. It's all the media's fault and being rude to Jack Straw. Classy.

My heart bleeds, perhaps Hugh Grant can console her

Byronic said:

AlastairMeeks said:

YBarddCwsc said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Well, the Conservatives’ wholly undeserved success was dismal last night and the triumphalism of their supporters tonight is still less edifying. Enjoy your moment. Meanwhile, the country is going up shit creek.

Ever wondered, perhaps, whether it was the behaviour of some entitled Remainers that has helped navigate the country up shit creek ?

After the Brexit Referendum, your call for a London Independence Party because the rights and interest of Londoners had not been respected was the most idiotic misreading of the political situation since the downfall of the East European dictators, still praising Communism to the skies as the Wall fell and the citizenry rioted.

I am not very happy with what has happened, but I can at least see that the blame has to be pretty widely sprayed around.

A London Independence Party would remain one of the best ways out of this sorry mess. The inbred yokels who expect to be cosseted by the country’s breadwinners could indulge their backward-looking fantasies at their own expense. Meanwhile, the bits of the country that actually work could be invested in properly.

"inbred yokels"???

Just stop. Really.

STOP

He's in his cups.

Brutal by Ponsonby

https://twitter.com/theSNP/status/1205473008908939265?s=19

HYUFD said:

TheGreenMachine said:

HYUFD said:

TheGreenMachine said:

HYUFD said:

TheGreenMachine said:

HYUFD said:

TheGreenMachine said:

StuartDickson said:

TheGreenMachine said:

In terms of Northern Ireland parties, I think it's onwards and upwards for The Alliance Party and SDLP can only grow their vote share. I think those DUP safe seats are no longer safe.

How do you rate the chances of Irish reunification within the next 10 years?

(Many thanks for your NI posts, especially your comprehensive, and objective, analysis early on in the campaign.)

No worries. On the Irish unity subject, I was informed a 3-4 years ago that it would take 10-12 years before we can even have a poll / referendum. Also, SF would need to improve their seat count in the republic which is probably inevitable.

I don't think SDLP are too interested in it although the two newly elected MPs are definitely the best for their Constituencies as the result proved. Alliance would probably be very accepting of an all Ireland. I also think if Arlene Foster's father wasn't murdered by the opposition (I.R.A), I'd say she would be a lot more accepting of united Ireland.

Some unionists have said there will definitely be a referendum. There should be a vote within the next 8-10 years and as for the chances of winning, there actually fairly decent specially with the demographic changes in the North.

Unless we get a Nationalist majority at Stormont (if it ever reconvenes) there will be no Irish unity poll and even yesterday the DUP and UUP combined got 43% to 38% for SF and the SDLP combined

Do you think Irish majority is automatic united Ireland?

No, given the SNP got a majority at Holyrood in 2011 on 45% but that majority was required for an Independence referendum before they could even begin to ask Westminster for one

We could be heading for an Easter election in northern Ireland and I believe in the next assembly election there is above average chance of a nationalist majority as uup are finished atm.

Unlikely, especially with PR for Stormont and the Alliance Party neutral on Irish unity, the Nationalists need to get 10% more than they got yesterday in Northern Ireland for a Stormont majority

I don't think the Alliance Party are neutral although they pretend to be.

They are especially as their only MP represents a 90% Unionist seat, North Down

That doesn't make sense.

All their main / key members are from a unionist background although I think Naomi supports an Irish language act.

https://twitter.com/calvinrobinson/status/1205616853952925696

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Faiza Shaheen in the bitter barn on Newsnight. It's all the media's fault and being rude to Jack Straw. Classy.

Rachel Shabi has to take the award for being the biggest Corbynista apologist. It used to be Owen Jones, but I think even he was growing weary of trying to defend Corbyn against the charges of anti Semitism. Still, the vast majority of Corbynistas support him because they agree with his politics, warts and all, it's as simple as that.

Jason said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Faiza Shaheen in the bitter barn on Newsnight. It's all the media's fault and being rude to Jack Straw. Classy.

Rachel Shabi has to take the award for being the biggest Corbynista apologist. It used to be Owen Jones, but I think even he was growing weary of trying to defend Corbyn against the charges of anti Semitism. Still, the vast majority of Corbynistas support him because they agree with his politics, warts and all, it's as simple as that.

Owen tried to exit the Corbyn project, a couple of years back, but got so much grief from the Wokerati that he U turned and started banging the drum again.

My verdict is simple.

3 major changes happened since last time:

A. Boris instead of May
B. Labour supporting soft Remain instead of soft Leave.
C. Brexit was the No1 consern on voters lists of issues.

That probably accounts for most of this election result, including the LD low score (Labour geting most of the urban Remainers back from LD).

TheGreenMachine said:

HYUFD said:

TheGreenMachine said:

HYUFD said:

TheGreenMachine said:

HYUFD said:

TheGreenMachine said:

HYUFD said:

TheGreenMachine said:

StuartDickson said:

TheGreenMachine said:

In terms of Northern Ireland parties, I think it's onwards and upwards for The Alliance Party and SDLP can only grow their vote share. I think those DUP safe seats are no longer safe.

How do you rate the chances of Irish reunification within the next 10 years?

(Many thanks for your NI posts, especially your comprehensive, and objective, analysis early on in the campaign.)

No worries. On the Irish unity subject, I was informed a 3-4 years ago that it would take 10-12 years before we can even have a poll / referendum. Also, SF would need to improve their seat count in the republic which is probably inevitable.

I don't think SDLP are too interested in it although the two newly elected MPs are definitely the best for their Constituencies as the result proved. Alliance would probably be very accepting of an all Ireland. I also think if Arlene Foster's father wasn't murdered by the opposition (I.R.A), I'd say she would be a lot more accepting of united Ireland.

Some unionists have said there will definitely be a referendum. There should be a vote within the next 8-10 years and as for the chances of winning, there actually fairly decent specially with the demographic changes in the North.

Unless we get a Nationalist majority at Stormont (if it ever reconvenes) there will be no Irish unity poll and even yesterday the DUP and UUP combined got 43% to 38% for SF and the SDLP combined

Do you think Irish majority is automatic united Ireland?

No, given the SNP got a majority at Holyrood in 2011 on 45% but that majority was required for an Independence referendum before they could even begin to ask Westminster for one

Unlikely, especially with PR for Stormont and the Alliance Party neutral on Irish unity, the Nationalists need to get 10% more than they got yesterday in Northern Ireland for a Stormont majority

I don't think the Alliance Party are neutral although they pretend to be.

They are especially as their only MP represents a 90% Unionist seat, North Down

That doesn't make sense.

All their main / key members are from a unionist background although I think Naomi supports an Irish language act.

Isn't the basis of the Alliance Party that they refuse to see NI in sectarian terms?

speedy2 said:

My verdict is simple.

3 major changes happened since last time:

A. Boris instead of May
B. Labour supporting soft Remain instead of soft Leave.
C. Brexit was the No1 consern on voters lists of issues.

That probably accounts for most of this election result, including the LD low score (Labour geting most of the urban Remainers back from LD).

I think that fairly accurate, but also people are sick to death of politics and wanted it to shut up and go away. It won't of course, but that is the feeling.

Byronic said:

MarqueeMark said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Faiza Shaheen in the bitter barn on Newsnight. It's all the media's fault and being rude to Jack Straw. Classy.

Parliament dodged a bullet there.....

God, she is awful

I bet she goes for the Labour nomination in Islington North if Corbyn stands down.

Foxy said:

Andy_JS said:

Apparently the GB shares were as follows:

Con 44.9, Lab 33.1, LD 11.8, Brexit 2.1, Green 2.8, SNP 3.9, PC 0.5

That 44.9% figure for the Tories is identical to the Conservative GB share in 1979 when Mrs Thatcher was first elected PM.

Do you have a final figure for turnout?

Only for the UK: 67.3%

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2019/results

Rumour: Dawn Butler considering leadership bid.

speedy2 said:

My verdict is simple.

3 major changes happened since last time:

A. Boris instead of May
B. Labour supporting soft Remain instead of soft Leave.
C. Brexit was the No1 consern on voters lists of issues.

That probably accounts for most of this election result, including the LD low score (Labour geting most of the urban Remainers back from LD).

My verdict is simpler again. With Cummings/Johnson plan of embracing and eliminating the Brexit Party they were able to win back almost everyone who switched to that Party.Labour weren't able to squeeze the Lib Dems to the same degree.

There was little net movement of votes from Labour to Conservative since 2017

DavidL said:

Did I catch just a hint of withdrawal from the general contempt with which Boris has been showered on here? Is he just maybe not so foolish after all despite being dishonest, immoral and a general retrobate?

Boris has won and won big. He has done so by being brave, willing to gamble and being ruthlessly disciplined about his message. It is a measure of his achievements that so many still seem to regard him as a bumbling fool. This is a wolf in sheep’s clothing. I think that we will see what Cameron could have done had he been arsed.

Except in Scotland where he was totally rejected David

AlastairMeeks said:

YBarddCwsc said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Well, the Conservatives’ wholly undeserved success was dismal last night and the triumphalism of their supporters tonight is still less edifying. Enjoy your moment. Meanwhile, the country is going up shit creek.

Ever wondered, perhaps, whether it was the behaviour of some entitled Remainers that has helped navigate the country up shit creek ?

After the Brexit Referendum, your call for a London Independence Party because the rights and interest of Londoners had not been respected was the most idiotic misreading of the political situation since the downfall of the East European dictators, still praising Communism to the skies as the Wall fell and the citizenry rioted.

I am not very happy with what has happened, but I can at least see that the blame has to be pretty widely sprayed around.

A London Independence Party would remain one of the best ways out of this sorry mess. The inbred yokels who expect to be cosseted by the country’s breadwinners could indulge their backward-looking fantasies at their own expense. Meanwhile, the bits of the country that actually work could be invested in properly.

Oh come on, Alastair. I’m often in agreement with you. But calling people living outside London “inbred yokels” is beneath you. Badly done.

Also, even accepting that London is the breadwinner, its main industry - the City - has cost the country very dearly, is still costing it and has not exactly done much to improve the country’s moral character, for those who care about such things. People see an entitled bunch of incompetent, greedy and, in some cases, crooked people who expected to be bailed out by others from the consequences of their own misdeeds and then sneer at those who suffered the opportunity cost of that bailout.

Those on the Remain side / living in London need to do a bit of self-reflection too.

Anabobazina said:

I came on this evening expecting to see our PB Tory friends magnanimous in victory. I leave disappointed.

At the risk of belaboring the obvious, PB Tories do not do magnaminity, preferring needy terror in anticipated defeat and patronising aggression in victory.

In fairness, this may also be true of PB Labour and PB Libs. But I've only been on here since 2010/11 and so have never witnessed their behavior in victory...

...

Anabobazina said:

I came on this evening expecting to see our PB Tory friends magnanimous in victory. I leave disappointed.

Tyson this evening called Tories evil, it reflects the attitude of much of the left, sometimes a little triumphalism is due and with the biggest Tory majority since Thatcher today tonight is just such a time

TheGreenMachine said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Rumour: Dawn Butler considering leadership bid.

Hopefully she can win, she would be good for labour.

Yes. She is just what Labour need in West Bromwich, Stoke, Blyth Valley, Grimsby, and that gets them back to 250-60 odd. She will surely appeal beyond that to the Vale of Glamorgan, Hendon, and Nuneaton to win a majority.

Can I have what you’re smoking?

TheGreenMachine said:

Foxy said:

TheGreenMachine said:

Foxy said:

Isn't the basis of the Alliance Party that they refuse to see NI in sectarian terms?

That's their policy but as I said all the leading members are from unionist backgrounds / area's if you like.

Interesting, I imagined it being more balanced as a party. Surely by being neutral, but mostly Protestant, that makes reunification more likely.

Reunification would rather radically reshape Ireland as a bicultural country, but perhaps we are seeing that change already. In practice, NI might need devolution within Ireland, rather than in the UK.

Indeed, it's always good to see someone interested in Northern Ireland politics.

Isn't the Alliance bias more of identity than religion? So I could say I am Irish and protestant and not see a contradiction in that. Regardless of constitutions, it seems Irishness is winning out, no doubt in part because of the recent success of that country, which is also becoming more socially tolerant.

TheGreenMachine said:

Foxy said:

TheGreenMachine said:

Foxy said:

Isn't the basis of the Alliance Party that they refuse to see NI in sectarian terms?

That's their policy but as I said all the leading members are from unionist backgrounds / area's if you like.

Interesting, I imagined it being more balanced as a party. Surely by being neutral, but mostly Protestant, that makes reunification more likely.

Reunification would rather radically reshape Ireland as a bicultural country, but perhaps we are seeing that change already. In practice, NI might need devolution within Ireland, rather than in the UK.

Indeed, it's always good to see someone interested in Northern Ireland politics.

I don't think he is. PB's arch-remoaner faction is always feverishly looking for signs of doom for the UK; it's the political equivalent of taking the ball away when you've lost. See also William Glenn's conversion to Sturgeonism.