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SystemSystem Posts: 12,681
edited April 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » For the first time ever in a Westminster seat a poll finds UKIP ahead

This poll did not mention the names of candidates – just the parties. We do not know yet whether Diane James will be standing again for the purples. She is a great asset.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,759
    I've just taken that 4/1 bet.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,759
    I was told on here that if the Eastleigh by-election had been a week later the Kippers would have taken the seats.

    Looks like that was true.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,759
    The most interesting thing is the Lib Dems slipping to third.

    Received wisdom is that the Lib Dems would do better where they have seats.

    My betting strategy is underpinned by that theory.

    Eep.
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    So that's Eastleigh returning to the Tories at the GE then.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    The classic dilemma arises for UKIP. Is this poll the justification for sticking with Diane James or do you ditch her for Farage a la Greens in Brighton?

    I'm on UKIP to win Eastleigh at 16/1. How I'd love that to come off. Tough to hold that for a year though, and outbattle the LDs now they see this polling.
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    So tactical voting likely to backfire on the Lib Dems..
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,949
    It's hard to believe the Lib-Dems could hold on to Eastleigh in a mid-term by election when they was at their nadir in terms of unpopularity, yet lose the seat in much more favourable conditions during a general election...
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I was told on here that if the Eastleigh by-election had been a week later the Kippers would have taken the seats.

    Looks like that was true.

    The LDs in Eastleigh acknowledged that UKIP won most votes on polling day itself. They held the seat because of their superior postal voting operation.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,538
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I was told on here that if the Eastleigh by-election had been a week later the Kippers would have taken the seats.

    Looks like that was true.

    Probably. UKIP likely led among voters on the day. Lib Dems among postal voters
  • NextNext Posts: 826
    So is UKIP now the "none of the above" protest party?

    Able to claim that they are the new politics. Offer any fantasy policy that will gain them votes. And then dropped faster than a LibDem promise if offered a sniff of power?
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    edited April 2014
    GIN1138 said:

    It's hard to believe the Lib-Dems could hold on to Eastleigh in a mid-term by election when they was at their nadir in terms of unpopularity, yet lose the seat in much more favourable conditions during a general election...

    I think that's a fair point, but on the other hand in 2015 the LDs will have 57 simultaneous seats to defend. In Eastleigh they could pour everything into just one.

    EDIT: Plus UKIP are more popular now than they were in March 2013.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,786
    edited April 2014
    Quincel said:

    The classic dilemma arises for UKIP. Is this poll the justification for sticking with Diane James or do you ditch her for Farage a la Greens in Brighton?

    I'm on UKIP to win Eastleigh at 16/1. How I'd love that to come off. Tough to hold that for a year though, and outbattle the LDs now they see this polling.


    Think they'd be making a mistake if they parachuted Farage in - James has set it up and gives them a reasonable chance of at least 2 seats if Farage wins sonewhere else. If Farage jumps in, it makes it look like a one-man ego-trip.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Farage always says he wants to stand for a Kent seat.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    AndyJS said:

    Farage always says he wants to stand for a Kent seat.

    Fair point. If anyone does think this poll will change his mind though, there's still 20/1 on him standing in Eastleigh.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    If only there were numbers for before/after numbers for the Clegg-Farage debates!
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Sean_F said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I was told on here that if the Eastleigh by-election had been a week later the Kippers would have taken the seats.

    Looks like that was true.

    Probably. UKIP likely led among voters on the day. Lib Dems among postal voters
    This is simply untrue the Lib Dems did lead amongst postal voters but also by a lesser amount amongst those who voted on the day - see Lord Ashcroft's post election poll for confirmation .
  • NinoinozNinoinoz Posts: 1,312
    edited April 2014
    Quincel said:

    GIN1138 said:

    It's hard to believe the Lib-Dems could hold on to Eastleigh in a mid-term by election when they was at their nadir in terms of unpopularity, yet lose the seat in much more favourable conditions during a general election...

    I think that's a fair point, but on the other hand in 2015 the LDs will have 57 simultaneous seats to defend. In Eastleigh they could pour everything into just one.

    EDIT: Plus UKIP are more popular now than they were in March 2013.
    What's more, they had the advantage of knowing when the by-election would be called, which their opponents did not.

    With fixed term parliaments, everyone knows exactly when the election is going to be, five years in advance.

    EDIT: This will also screw up the finely tuned LibDem postal vote operation.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    "Top local issue in the seat was “less construction of buildings / stricter planning permission” "

    At the recent UKIP conference Ms James gave a rather dull speech about planning permission. I thought it was odd at the time. Not so odd now!

    http://youtu.be/P0EpBG_juIY
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Quincel said:

    GIN1138 said:

    It's hard to believe the Lib-Dems could hold on to Eastleigh in a mid-term by election when they was at their nadir in terms of unpopularity, yet lose the seat in much more favourable conditions during a general election...

    I think that's a fair point, but on the other hand in 2015 the LDs will have 57 simultaneous seats to defend. In Eastleigh they could pour everything into just one.

    EDIT: Plus UKIP are more popular now than they were in March 2013.
    That is incorrect .The UKIP local election percentage is 6% down on what they actually achieved in 2013
    LD 36% UKIP 33% Con 21% Lab 8% .
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,786
    Interesting that the LibDems are still streets ahead for the local council (when do they elect?). That means it's not just a planning protest - rather, perhaps, UKIP are seen as a good challenger at Parliamentary level because of the by-election, but not yet that developed locally against well-known local LDs.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,949
    Matt D'Ancona thinks it's down-hill all the way for Farage after the Euro's;

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/10775656/Nigel-Farage-is-staring-down-the-barrel-of-his-favourite-gun.html
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    In my view Diane James is a far better candidate than Farage. Whatever she looks pretty likely to be elected as an MEP on May 22.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    MarkSenior said:

    Quincel said:

    GIN1138 said:

    It's hard to believe the Lib-Dems could hold on to Eastleigh in a mid-term by election when they was at their nadir in terms of unpopularity, yet lose the seat in much more favourable conditions during a general election...

    I think that's a fair point, but on the other hand in 2015 the LDs will have 57 simultaneous seats to defend. In Eastleigh they could pour everything into just one.

    EDIT: Plus UKIP are more popular now than they were in March 2013.
    That is incorrect .The UKIP local election percentage is 6% down on what they actually achieved in 2013
    LD 36% UKIP 33% Con 21% Lab 8% .
    I meant nationally, though you are correct and your figure is probably more relevant.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    UKIP-Eastleigh have produced my now-favourite political leaflet.

    "Elvis is alive and living on the moon, say liberal-democrats: If you believe LD lies, you will believe anything.

    Do you want LD liars running your council?"

    http://www.eastleighnews.co.uk/2014/04/ukip-v-lib-dems-in-war-of-words/
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    MikeSmithson said:

    In my view Diane James is a far better candidate than Farage. Whatever she looks pretty likely to be elected as an MEP on May 22.

    My information which is not guaranteed to be 100% correct is that if elected as an MEP she will not stand in Eastleigh in the GE and she will also resign her seat on Waverley council .
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    MarkSenior said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    In my view Diane James is a far better candidate than Farage. Whatever she looks pretty likely to be elected as an MEP on May 22.

    My information which is not guaranteed to be 100% correct is that if elected as an MEP she will not stand in Eastleigh in the GE and she will also resign her seat on Waverley council .
    Ms James is still campaigning in Eastleigh.

    http://www.eastleighnews.co.uk/2014/04/police-station-closure-plan-sparks-protest/
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2014
    Are we getting any national Westminster polls tonight?
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    AndyJS said:

    Are we getting any national Westminster polls tonight?

    YouGov, I believe.
  • BlueberryBlueberry Posts: 408
    Fair play to Eastleigh.

    At football they won the Skrill South this week so will be in the English fifth division next year.

    The town's clearly on the up!
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    *Betting Post*

    As OGH has tweeted but the thread post doesn't yet reflect, you can no longer get 4/1 on UKIP winning Eastleigh at Ladbrokes (who have lowered the odds to 2/1). Best odds are now 7/2 at PaddyPower.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,100
    Quincel said:

    *Betting Post*

    As OGH has tweeted but the thread post doesn't yet reflect, you can no longer get 4/1 on UKIP winning Eastleigh at Ladbrokes (who have lowered the odds to 2/1). Best odds are now 7/2 at PaddyPower.

    Head to Paddy, and hit max. THat 7/2 won't last long.
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,579
    UKIP should surely stick with Diane James; so I hope they switch. Either way, they'd be smart to select ASAP as they need to bud a personal vote for their candidate.

    That Eastleigh is a marginal won't shock anyone. But if the LDs really have to throw everything at it, they might have to take resource away from 2 other winnable local seats: Romsey and Winchester. So might be good for the Tories as these are far from certain Con holds.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,534
    Awkward...

    EXCLUSIVE: PM hired bankrupt crony to run £60billion quango: Tycoon put in charge of vast Treasury budget by his Tory friends is sacked after MoS probe

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2608597/PM-hired-bankrupt-crony-run-60billion-quango-Tycoon-charge-vast-Treasury-budget-Tory-friends-sacked-MoS-probe.html
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Most interesting aspect of this poll imo is not that UKIP are first, but that the Lib Dems have slipped behind the Tories. If that's happening in a seat where the Lib Dems are so dominant on a local level, it does suggest the Lib Dems will fare quite a lot worse in Lib Dem/Tory marginals next year than many predict.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    edited April 2014
    *Betting Post*

    On a related note, the 20/1 on Farage running in Eastleigh is also no longer available (Shadsy has cut it to 8/1). Best odds now 12/1 at Paddy Power, which is yet to move any odds based on this poll.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,100
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Awkward...

    EXCLUSIVE: PM hired bankrupt crony to run £60billion quango: Tycoon put in charge of vast Treasury budget by his Tory friends is sacked after MoS probe

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2608597/PM-hired-bankrupt-crony-run-60billion-quango-Tycoon-charge-vast-Treasury-budget-Tory-friends-sacked-MoS-probe.html

    Jobs for the boys !
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited April 2014
    The surprise is who changed their by-election votes.

    Table 6, page 9

    UKIP have Con 4.2%, Lab 14.1%, LD 11.7%, UKIP 92.9%

    LD have Con 0, Lab 1.4%, LD 79.2%, UKIP 1%.

    Not a lot of pro-LD tactical voting in Eastleigh.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    Danny565 said:

    Most interesting aspect of this poll imo is not that UKIP are first, but that the Lib Dems have slipped behind the Tories. If that's happening in a seat where the Lib Dems are so dominant on a local level, it does suggest the Lib Dems will fare quite a lot worse in Lib Dem/Tory marginals next year than many predict.

    To some extent yes, but it is only 1 point on a constituency poll which has more MOE than a standard national VI poll. I'm not convinced it's as significant as it looks. Even UKIP's 4 point lead though great for them is pretty close to or within the MOE. Sampling for constituency polls is tough.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,534
    Pulpstar said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Awkward...

    EXCLUSIVE: PM hired bankrupt crony to run £60billion quango: Tycoon put in charge of vast Treasury budget by his Tory friends is sacked after MoS probe

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2608597/PM-hired-bankrupt-crony-run-60billion-quango-Tycoon-charge-vast-Treasury-budget-Tory-friends-sacked-MoS-probe.html

    Jobs for the boys !
    Jobs for the bankrupt boys...
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2014
    I'm sceptical about the Eastleigh borough poll because that area includes Chandler's Ford which is by far the Tories' strongest area, so you wouldn't expect them to drop from 28% to 23%. They have their only councillors there for example.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,100
    Quincel said:

    *Betting Post*

    On a related note, the 20/1 on Farage running in Eastleigh is also no longer available (Shadsy has cut it to 8/1). Best odds now 12/1 at Paddy Power, which is yet to move any odds based on this poll.

    I think it'll be elsewhere but I've had a saver to combined stakes on other places...
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    Pulpstar said:

    Quincel said:

    *Betting Post*

    On a related note, the 20/1 on Farage running in Eastleigh is also no longer available (Shadsy has cut it to 8/1). Best odds now 12/1 at Paddy Power, which is yet to move any odds based on this poll.

    I think it'll be elsewhere but I've had a saver to combined stakes on other places...
    Sorry for my ignorance, but I literally don't know what you mean. Can you explain what that sentence means for me?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,759
    There's some non VI yougov polling in the Sunday Times

    Which Govt do you think would be better for

    Jobs, Lab 30, Con 29, was Lab 33, Con 25 in October

    Keeping Prices down, Lab 25, Con 24, In October it was Lab 28, Con 22

    Improving living standards for people like you, Lab 31, Con 27, in October it was Lab 34 Con 25
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,759
    There's no YouGov Westminster VI poll in the Sunday Times 'cause of the Bank Holiday.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    edited April 2014
    AndyJS said:

    I'm sceptical about the Eastleigh borough poll because that area includes Chandler's Ford which is by far the Tories' strongest area, so you wouldn't expect them to drop from 28% to 23%. They have their only councillors there for example.

    In 2013 CC elections including Chandlers Ford they polled 21% borough wide . However you are correct to be sceptical as there are no elections in 3 Lib Dem wards this year
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited April 2014
    Simon Heffer:
    "The Tory party has been feeding tame journalists with a series of desperate smears against Nigel Farage and Ukip, alleging expenses fiddling (actually, they are allowances, which is a different matter) and accusations of bullying and shouting at Ukip HQ, of the kind that occurs in every other party HQ in my experience.

    Mr Farage should be flattered. A year or two ago no one would have bothered smearing him or his party. They do so now because they know Ukip could win the European elections.
    If their opponents are reduced to such tactics, it jolly well should win."

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2608144/SIMON-HEFFER-Its-time-grab-Putin-roubles.html
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,786
    Are we seeing the Indyref polls tonight?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    MarkSenior said:

    AndyJS said:

    I'm sceptical about the Eastleigh borough poll because that area includes Chandler's Ford which is by far the Tories' strongest area, so you wouldn't expect them to drop from 28% to 23%. They have their only councillors there for example.

    In 2013 CC elections including Chandlers Ford they polled 21% borough wide . However you are correct to be sceptical as there are no elections in 2 Lib Dem wards this year
    I was making a comparison between Eastleigh with and without Chandler's Ford.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,100
    Quincel said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Quincel said:

    *Betting Post*

    On a related note, the 20/1 on Farage running in Eastleigh is also no longer available (Shadsy has cut it to 8/1). Best odds now 12/1 at Paddy Power, which is yet to move any odds based on this poll.

    I think it'll be elsewhere but I've had a saver to combined stakes on other places...
    Sorry for my ignorance, but I literally don't know what you mean. Can you explain what that sentence means for me?
    I've backed the Thanets, if he stands in Eastleigh I will basically have 0 profit from where he is standing now - I think he stands in one of the Thanets but am not ruling Eastleigh out completely.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited April 2014
    Pulpstar said:

    Quincel said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Quincel said:

    *Betting Post*

    On a related note, the 20/1 on Farage running in Eastleigh is also no longer available (Shadsy has cut it to 8/1). Best odds now 12/1 at Paddy Power, which is yet to move any odds based on this poll.

    I think it'll be elsewhere but I've had a saver to combined stakes on other places...
    Sorry for my ignorance, but I literally don't know what you mean. Can you explain what that sentence means for me?
    I've backed the Thanets, if he stands in Eastleigh I will basically have 0 profit from where he is standing now - I think he stands in one of the Thanets but am not ruling Eastleigh out completely.
    Another poster (AndyJS?) has made this point in the past, but I don't think any of the Kent seats are good bets for UKIP purely because the Tories are coming off such a high base in most of them that the winning post will be very hard for UKIP to reach.

    Since by UKIP's very nature they're probably going to piss off a good two-thirds of the residents of any constituency (women, gays, ethnic minorites, etc.), their ceiling is probably about 33%, so they need a seat which is traditionally a tight marginal so that the winning post is within their reach. By the looks of this poll, Eastleigh could be just the ticket. Thurrock and Camborne & Redruth could be even better.
  • BlueberryBlueberry Posts: 408
    Quincel said:

    Danny565 said:

    Most interesting aspect of this poll imo is not that UKIP are first, but that the Lib Dems have slipped behind the Tories. If that's happening in a seat where the Lib Dems are so dominant on a local level, it does suggest the Lib Dems will fare quite a lot worse in Lib Dem/Tory marginals next year than many predict.

    To some extent yes, but it is only 1 point on a constituency poll which has more MOE than a standard national VI poll. I'm not convinced it's as significant as it looks. Even UKIP's 4 point lead though great for them is pretty close to or within the MOE. Sampling for constituency polls is tough.
    The poll was of only 506 people so MOE is about 4.5%. But but still great for UKIP; They appear to have momentum.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,759
    Front page of the Scotland on Sunday which has commissioned the ICM

    Poll: Scotland on the brink of independence

    Gap narrowing even further.


    Kenny Farquharson ‏@KennyFarq 3m
    Front Page of this weekend's Scotland on Sunday. #indyref pic.twitter.com/z4NiBcCaIy
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    MarkSenior said:

    AndyJS said:

    I'm sceptical about the Eastleigh borough poll because that area includes Chandler's Ford which is by far the Tories' strongest area, so you wouldn't expect them to drop from 28% to 23%. They have their only councillors there for example.

    In 2013 CC elections including Chandlers Ford they polled 21% borough wide . However you are correct to be sceptical as there are no elections in 3 Lib Dem wards this year
    OK , having looked at the full data tables , the local election figures do not include the Chandlers Ford wards but they do include the 3 LD wards which in fact have no elections this year .
    Before weighting all 3 main parties had GE VI figures of 90 voters each
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,759
    The last ICM had No with a lead of 7%, so am assuming this lead is less than that.

    So squeaky bum time for Better together
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    anotherDave said:

    Simon Heffer:
    "The Tory party has been feeding tame journalists with a series of desperate smears against Nigel Farage and Ukip, alleging expenses fiddling (actually, they are allowances, which is a different matter) and accusations of bullying and shouting at Ukip HQ, of the kind that occurs in every other party HQ in my experience.

    Mr Farage should be flattered. A year or two ago no one would have bothered smearing him or his party. They do so now because they know Ukip could win the European elections.
    If their opponents are reduced to such tactics, it jolly well should win."

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2608144/SIMON-HEFFER-Its-time-grab-Putin-roubles.html

    Now then Dave. When I pointed this out about a week a go I was told by a number of PB Hodges that it had feck all to do with Tory HQ....... I did point out the naivety of some people on here was a bit surprising(or words to that effect).
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,921
    No numbers yet but front page of Scotland on Sunday says 'Poll: Scotland on verge of Independence', so swing to Yes clearly continuing in polling.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    edited April 2014
    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    No numbers yet but front page of Scotland on Sunday says 'Poll: Scotland on verge of Independence', so swing to Yes clearly continuing in polling.

    Godsdamnit. Farewell Scotland, and see you at the negotiating table I guess.

    Night all.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    No numbers yet but front page of Scotland on Sunday says 'Poll: Scotland on verge of Independence', so swing to Yes clearly continuing in polling.

    Seems SeanT was right then. Scottish Labour must be trembling.
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,921
    My Twitter feed has been full of pictures today of Yes Scotland campaigning and leafletting all over the country in the good weather. Nothing from Better Together. Must follow the wrong people.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    My Twitter feed has been full of pictures today of Yes Scotland campaigning and leafletting all over the country in the good weather. Nothing from Better Together. Must follow the wrong people.

    A campaign which requires people like Gordon Brown and Michael Forsyth to work together was always going to run into problems.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    compouter2 said:

    anotherDave said:

    Simon Heffer:
    "The Tory party has been feeding tame journalists with a series of desperate smears against Nigel Farage and Ukip, alleging expenses fiddling (actually, they are allowances, which is a different matter) and accusations of bullying and shouting at Ukip HQ, of the kind that occurs in every other party HQ in my experience.

    Mr Farage should be flattered. A year or two ago no one would have bothered smearing him or his party. They do so now because they know Ukip could win the European elections.
    If their opponents are reduced to such tactics, it jolly well should win."

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2608144/SIMON-HEFFER-Its-time-grab-Putin-roubles.html

    Now then Dave. When I pointed this out about a week a go I was told by a number of PB Hodges that it had feck all to do with Tory HQ....... I did point out the naivety of some people on here was a bit surprising(or words to that effect).
    When you are in one side of the table, with Simon Heffer, and everyone else is on the other... Time for a rethink surely?

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,705
    Well at least this narrowing is happening now, with hopefully time to turn things round.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Diane James is a formidable candidate, more so than Farage who needs to find his own seat. If she gets elected while he fails again we shall find out if UKIP are a real party or just a one man band.

    If looking for better odds than 2/1 for the kippers it is 50/1 in Romsey, a similar seat demographically and with an unloved Tory incumbent. If there is a general groundswell to take the kippers past a couple of seats then this is their sort of seat, possibly with some overspill hype.
    NickPalmer said:

    Quincel said:

    The classic dilemma arises for UKIP. Is this poll the justification for sticking with Diane James or do you ditch her for Farage a la Greens in Brighton?

    I'm on UKIP to win Eastleigh at 16/1. How I'd love that to come off. Tough to hold that for a year though, and outbattle the LDs now they see this polling.


    Think they'd be making a mistake if they parachuted Farage in - James has set it up and gives them a reasonable chance of at least 2 seats if Farage wins sonewhere else. If Farage jumps in, it makes it look like a one-man ego-trip.

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Why am I getting adverts for flea products...?
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,921
    RobD said:

    Well at least this narrowing is happening now, with hopefully time to turn things round.

    Unless BT have a big old re-think, then I wouldn't be optimistic. I agree with Fraser Nelson on relatively little, but he is spot on about Salmond being a good late stage campaigner. Yes clearly has the momentum.

    150 days to go.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    Charles said:

    Why am I getting adverts for flea products...?

    Someone you want to tell us? Suffice to say I'll be sticking to the other side of the room at Dirty Dicks.
  • Eh_ehm_a_ehEh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552
    Charles said:

    Why am I getting adverts for flea products...?

    You sleep with dogs?

  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,921
    Nothing of interest on Scotland on Sunday website yet, unless you count a slightly bitchy review of my local restaurant.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    edited April 2014
    scotsman.com/news/tom-peterkin-the-english-born-on-independence-1-3382087

    Yes 48% No 52% excluding undecideds
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    If UIKIP can win Eastleigh, then it could win 10 "others" - only "information" if lacking to the potential UKIP voters.

    FPT: CON @ 22%. Crossover coming up ?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,165
    old_labour said:

    scotsman.com/news/tom-peterkin-the-english-born-on-independence-1-3382087

    Yes 48% No 52% excluding undecideds


    Ooft, as we say in the purlieus of Pollok :)
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,921
    old_labour said:

    scotsman.com/news/tom-peterkin-the-english-born-on-independence-1-3382087

    Yes 48% No 52% excluding undecideds

    Wow. Is this Yes Scotland getting the big mo?
  • Eh_ehm_a_ehEh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552
    Theuniondivvie said:

    old_labour said:

    scotsman.com/news/tom-peterkin-the-english-born-on-
    independence-1-3382087

    Yes 48% No 52% excluding undecideds


    Ooft, as we say in the purlieus of Pollok :)
    Michty me, as they say in Lochee.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,949
    Could we be within 5 months of seeing the end of David Cameron's Prime Ministership?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,165
    BWatt ‏@BWatt2014 5 mins
    New reaches BT HQ #indyref http://tinyurl.com/newzbgg
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    It looks to me that Yes are losing on this poll. Nothing to see here.

    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    old_labour said:

    scotsman.com/news/tom-peterkin-the-english-born-on-independence-1-3382087

    Yes 48% No 52% excluding undecideds

    Wow. Is this Yes Scotland getting the big mo?
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    edited April 2014
    From Martin Boon of ICM in today's Scotland on Sunday.
    OUR poll today suggests that an independent Scotland is within touching distance - the Yes Campaign continues to win the hearts and minds of the Scottish electorate (or perhaps, the No Campaign are losing them) and the race could be viewed as neck and neck.

    At first glance, we should not be surprised. Since ICM began polling for Scotland on Sunday we have seen the Yes share increase from 32% last September, to 37% in January and February, to 39% in March, to 42% this month. When we strip out the Don’t Knows, this equates to a real Yes share rising from 40% last September to 48% now. On this trend, the arrival of the first poll suggesting a Yes lead should not be too long a wait.
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,921
    Theuniondivvie said:

    BWatt ‏@BWatt2014 5 mins
    New reaches BT HQ #indyref http://tinyurl.com/newzbgg

    Although no Downfall parody on YouTube yet. Poor show from the 'Cybernats' there.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Eccentric holiday poll in Scotsman.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,100
    Theuniondivvie said:

    old_labour said:

    scotsman.com/news/tom-peterkin-the-english-born-on-independence-1-3382087

    Yes 48% No 52% excluding undecideds


    Ooft, as we say in the purlieus of Pollok :)
    I'll send you the £100 should Yes win - but I think it will be No still ;)
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,921
    Full story is now up on SoS

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/referendum-race-on-knife-edge-as-no-support-slides-1-3382125

  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    Full story is now up on SoS

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/referendum-race-on-knife-edge-as-no-support-slides-1-3382125

    Dire ICM in Scotland. Fuck. Major rethink required.

  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    With undecideds
    Yes 39%
    No 42%
    D/K 19%
  • JamesMoJamesMo Posts: 35
    foxinsoxuk said:

    It looks to me that Yes are losing on this poll. Nothing to see here.



    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    old_labour said:

    scotsman.com/news/tom-peterkin-the-english-born-on-independence-1-3382087

    Yes 48% No 52% excluding undecideds

    Wow. Is this Yes Scotland getting the big mo?
    History of ICM / Scotland on Sunday independence polls:

    42-46 April 2014 (today)

    39-46 March 2014

    37-49 Feb 2014

    37-44 Jan 2014

    32-49 Sep 2013
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    foxinsoxuk said:

    It looks to me that Yes are losing on this poll. Nothing to see here.



    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    old_labour said:

    scotsman.com/news/tom-peterkin-the-english-born-on-independence-1-3382087

    Yes 48% No 52% excluding undecideds

    Wow. Is this Yes Scotland getting the big mo?
    I am well oiled so may be missing your irony. I hope I am.
    Dire, dire poll.
    Scotland stay with us.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    BobaFett said:

    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    Full story is now up on SoS

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/referendum-race-on-knife-edge-as-no-support-slides-1-3382125

    Dire ICM in Scotland. Fuck. Major rethink required.

    5 months to save Labour. Get Axelrod revving.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,165
    Pulpstar said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    old_labour said:

    scotsman.com/news/tom-peterkin-the-english-born-on-independence-1-3382087

    Yes 48% No 52% excluding undecideds


    Ooft, as we say in the purlieus of Pollok :)
    I'll send you the £100 should Yes win - but I think it will be No still ;)
    I would never doubt the word of a PB betting gentleman :)
    (and if necessary I'll of course send the £44 odd to you, but growing more confident about Yes).

  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    AndyJS said:

    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    My Twitter feed has been full of pictures today of Yes Scotland campaigning and leafletting all over the country in the good weather. Nothing from Better Together. Must follow the wrong people.

    A campaign which requires people like Gordon Brown and Michael Forsyth to work together was always going to run into problems.
    Indeed. Good post.

    Worse together.

  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,921
    Slightly odd article in SoS by Director of ICM, explaining that they haven't got a clue what is happening really.

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/martin-boon-a-pollster-entering-uncharted-waters-1-3382088
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The last ICM had No with a lead of 7%, so am assuming this lead is less than that.

    So squeaky bum time for Better together

    Salmond could well achieve the effing impossible here.
    Win or lose, the best politician in the UK by a country mile.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,705
    BobaFett said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    It looks to me that Yes are losing on this poll. Nothing to see here.



    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    old_labour said:

    scotsman.com/news/tom-peterkin-the-english-born-on-independence-1-3382087

    Yes 48% No 52% excluding undecideds

    Wow. Is this Yes Scotland getting the big mo?
    I am well oiled so may be missing your irony. I hope I am.
    Dire, dire poll.
    Scotland stay with us.
    Quite. Better Together need to sort their s**t out!
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited April 2014
    THe best time to buy "No" and make lots of money.
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    MonikerDiCanio said:

    BobaFett said:

    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    Full story is now up on SoS

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/referendum-race-on-knife-edge-as-no-support-slides-1-3382125

    Dire ICM in Scotland. Fuck. Major rethink required.

    5 months to save Labour. Get Axelrod revving.
    For once I agree with you.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,165
    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    Slightly odd article in SoS by Director of ICM, explaining that they haven't got a clue what is happening really.

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/martin-boon-a-pollster-entering-uncharted-waters-1-3382088


    This stuck out:

    'For our next poll, we also plan on introducing our standard likelihood to vote question as well – something that worked well in UK-wide elections, and which will benefit whichever side is better at getting its vote out.'

    I can sort of see his shy No voter point, but since for much of the time hitherto Yes voters have been portrayed as slightly nutty no-hopers, I'd imagine there's at least as large a tranche of shy Yes voters.
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    JamesMo said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    It looks to me that Yes are losing on this poll. Nothing to see here.



    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    old_labour said:

    scotsman.com/news/tom-peterkin-the-english-born-on-independence-1-3382087

    Yes 48% No 52% excluding undecideds

    Wow. Is this Yes Scotland getting the big mo?
    History of ICM / Scotland on Sunday independence polls:

    42-46 April 2014 (today)

    39-46 March 2014

    37-49 Feb 2014

    37-44 Jan 2014

    32-49 Sep 2013
    Absolutely no arguing with those numbers.
    Unless it's an Easter holidays outlier.
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    RobD said:

    BobaFett said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    It looks to me that Yes are losing on this poll. Nothing to see here.



    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    old_labour said:

    scotsman.com/news/tom-peterkin-the-english-born-on-independence-1-3382087

    Yes 48% No 52% excluding undecideds

    Wow. Is this Yes Scotland getting the big mo?
    I am well oiled so may be missing your irony. I hope I am.
    Dire, dire poll.
    Scotland stay with us.
    Quite. Better Together need to sort their s**t out!
    With the Commonwealth Games propaganda fest this summer, Salmond has a serious chance now.
    Anyone got any better ideas than an endless series of ludicrous scare stories that no-one believes?

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2014
    Excluding English-born Scots:

    Yes 42%
    No 40%
    DK 18%

    Could be heading for the Quebec 1995 scenario where the YES campaign famously claimed they'd won a majority among their own people, ie. ethnically French Quebec voters.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,705
    BobaFett said:



    With the Commonwealth Games propaganda fest this summer, Salmond has a serious chance now.
    Anyone got any better ideas than an endless series of ludicrous scare stories that no-one believes?

    Things like currency union do need to be discussed. But you are right the focus needs to be on the positives!
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    edited April 2014
    BobaFett said:

    RobD said:

    BobaFett said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    It looks to me that Yes are losing on this poll. Nothing to see here.



    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    old_labour said:

    scotsman.com/news/tom-peterkin-the-english-born-on-independence-1-3382087

    Yes 48% No 52% excluding undecideds

    Wow. Is this Yes Scotland getting the big mo?
    I am well oiled so may be missing your irony. I hope I am.
    Dire, dire poll.
    Scotland stay with us.
    Quite. Better Together need to sort their s**t out!
    With the Commonwealth Games propaganda fest this summer, Salmond has a serious chance now.
    Anyone got any better ideas than an endless series of ludicrous scare stories that no-one believes?

    Get rid of EdM and install a Scottish Labour leader.

  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,921
    AndyJS said:

    Excluding English-born Scots:

    Yes 42%
    No 40%
    DK 18%

    Some suggestion on Twitter that ICM are weighting English born voters are at 15%, when they are actually 10% of the population.
This discussion has been closed.

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