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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » For the first time ever in a Westminster seat a poll finds UKIP ahead
This poll did not mention the names of candidates – just the parties. We do not know yet whether Diane James will be standing again for the purples. She is a great asset.
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Looks like that was true.
Received wisdom is that the Lib Dems would do better where they have seats.
My betting strategy is underpinned by that theory.
Eep.
I'm on UKIP to win Eastleigh at 16/1. How I'd love that to come off. Tough to hold that for a year though, and outbattle the LDs now they see this polling.
Able to claim that they are the new politics. Offer any fantasy policy that will gain them votes. And then dropped faster than a LibDem promise if offered a sniff of power?
EDIT: Plus UKIP are more popular now than they were in March 2013.
Think they'd be making a mistake if they parachuted Farage in - James has set it up and gives them a reasonable chance of at least 2 seats if Farage wins sonewhere else. If Farage jumps in, it makes it look like a one-man ego-trip.
With fixed term parliaments, everyone knows exactly when the election is going to be, five years in advance.
EDIT: This will also screw up the finely tuned LibDem postal vote operation.
At the recent UKIP conference Ms James gave a rather dull speech about planning permission. I thought it was odd at the time. Not so odd now!
http://youtu.be/P0EpBG_juIY
LD 36% UKIP 33% Con 21% Lab 8% .
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/10775656/Nigel-Farage-is-staring-down-the-barrel-of-his-favourite-gun.html
"Elvis is alive and living on the moon, say liberal-democrats: If you believe LD lies, you will believe anything.
Do you want LD liars running your council?"
http://www.eastleighnews.co.uk/2014/04/ukip-v-lib-dems-in-war-of-words/
http://www.eastleighnews.co.uk/2014/04/police-station-closure-plan-sparks-protest/
At football they won the Skrill South this week so will be in the English fifth division next year.
The town's clearly on the up!
As OGH has tweeted but the thread post doesn't yet reflect, you can no longer get 4/1 on UKIP winning Eastleigh at Ladbrokes (who have lowered the odds to 2/1). Best odds are now 7/2 at PaddyPower.
That Eastleigh is a marginal won't shock anyone. But if the LDs really have to throw everything at it, they might have to take resource away from 2 other winnable local seats: Romsey and Winchester. So might be good for the Tories as these are far from certain Con holds.
EXCLUSIVE: PM hired bankrupt crony to run £60billion quango: Tycoon put in charge of vast Treasury budget by his Tory friends is sacked after MoS probe
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2608597/PM-hired-bankrupt-crony-run-60billion-quango-Tycoon-charge-vast-Treasury-budget-Tory-friends-sacked-MoS-probe.html
On a related note, the 20/1 on Farage running in Eastleigh is also no longer available (Shadsy has cut it to 8/1). Best odds now 12/1 at Paddy Power, which is yet to move any odds based on this poll.
Table 6, page 9
UKIP have Con 4.2%, Lab 14.1%, LD 11.7%, UKIP 92.9%
LD have Con 0, Lab 1.4%, LD 79.2%, UKIP 1%.
Not a lot of pro-LD tactical voting in Eastleigh.
Which Govt do you think would be better for
Jobs, Lab 30, Con 29, was Lab 33, Con 25 in October
Keeping Prices down, Lab 25, Con 24, In October it was Lab 28, Con 22
Improving living standards for people like you, Lab 31, Con 27, in October it was Lab 34 Con 25
"The Tory party has been feeding tame journalists with a series of desperate smears against Nigel Farage and Ukip, alleging expenses fiddling (actually, they are allowances, which is a different matter) and accusations of bullying and shouting at Ukip HQ, of the kind that occurs in every other party HQ in my experience.
Mr Farage should be flattered. A year or two ago no one would have bothered smearing him or his party. They do so now because they know Ukip could win the European elections.
If their opponents are reduced to such tactics, it jolly well should win."
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2608144/SIMON-HEFFER-Its-time-grab-Putin-roubles.html
Since by UKIP's very nature they're probably going to piss off a good two-thirds of the residents of any constituency (women, gays, ethnic minorites, etc.), their ceiling is probably about 33%, so they need a seat which is traditionally a tight marginal so that the winning post is within their reach. By the looks of this poll, Eastleigh could be just the ticket. Thurrock and Camborne & Redruth could be even better.
Poll: Scotland on the brink of independence
Gap narrowing even further.
Kenny Farquharson @KennyFarq 3m
Front Page of this weekend's Scotland on Sunday. #indyref pic.twitter.com/z4NiBcCaIy
Before weighting all 3 main parties had GE VI figures of 90 voters each
So squeaky bum time for Better together
Night all.
If looking for better odds than 2/1 for the kippers it is 50/1 in Romsey, a similar seat demographically and with an unloved Tory incumbent. If there is a general groundswell to take the kippers past a couple of seats then this is their sort of seat, possibly with some overspill hype.
150 days to go.
Yes 48% No 52% excluding undecideds
FPT: CON @ 22%. Crossover coming up ?
Ooft, as we say in the purlieus of Pollok
New reaches BT HQ #indyref http://tinyurl.com/newzbgg
OUR poll today suggests that an independent Scotland is within touching distance - the Yes Campaign continues to win the hearts and minds of the Scottish electorate (or perhaps, the No Campaign are losing them) and the race could be viewed as neck and neck.
At first glance, we should not be surprised. Since ICM began polling for Scotland on Sunday we have seen the Yes share increase from 32% last September, to 37% in January and February, to 39% in March, to 42% this month. When we strip out the Don’t Knows, this equates to a real Yes share rising from 40% last September to 48% now. On this trend, the arrival of the first poll suggesting a Yes lead should not be too long a wait.
http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/referendum-race-on-knife-edge-as-no-support-slides-1-3382125
Yes 39%
No 42%
D/K 19%
42-46 April 2014 (today)
39-46 March 2014
37-49 Feb 2014
37-44 Jan 2014
32-49 Sep 2013
Dire, dire poll.
Scotland stay with us.
(and if necessary I'll of course send the £44 odd to you, but growing more confident about Yes).
Worse together.
http://www.scotsman.com/news/martin-boon-a-pollster-entering-uncharted-waters-1-3382088
Win or lose, the best politician in the UK by a country mile.
This stuck out:
'For our next poll, we also plan on introducing our standard likelihood to vote question as well – something that worked well in UK-wide elections, and which will benefit whichever side is better at getting its vote out.'
I can sort of see his shy No voter point, but since for much of the time hitherto Yes voters have been portrayed as slightly nutty no-hopers, I'd imagine there's at least as large a tranche of shy Yes voters.
Unless it's an Easter holidays outlier.
Anyone got any better ideas than an endless series of ludicrous scare stories that no-one believes?
Yes 42%
No 40%
DK 18%
Could be heading for the Quebec 1995 scenario where the YES campaign famously claimed they'd won a majority among their own people, ie. ethnically French Quebec voters.