politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » For the first time ever in a Westminster seat a poll finds
This poll did not mention the names of candidates – just the parties. We do not know yet whether Diane James will be standing again for the purples. She is a great asset.
Comments
-
I've just taken that 4/1 bet.0
-
I was told on here that if the Eastleigh by-election had been a week later the Kippers would have taken the seats.
Looks like that was true.0 -
The most interesting thing is the Lib Dems slipping to third.
Received wisdom is that the Lib Dems would do better where they have seats.
My betting strategy is underpinned by that theory.
Eep.0 -
So that's Eastleigh returning to the Tories at the GE then.0
-
The classic dilemma arises for UKIP. Is this poll the justification for sticking with Diane James or do you ditch her for Farage a la Greens in Brighton?
I'm on UKIP to win Eastleigh at 16/1. How I'd love that to come off. Tough to hold that for a year though, and outbattle the LDs now they see this polling.0 -
So tactical voting likely to backfire on the Lib Dems..0
-
It's hard to believe the Lib-Dems could hold on to Eastleigh in a mid-term by election when they was at their nadir in terms of unpopularity, yet lose the seat in much more favourable conditions during a general election...0
-
The LDs in Eastleigh acknowledged that UKIP won most votes on polling day itself. They held the seat because of their superior postal voting operation.TheScreamingEagles said:I was told on here that if the Eastleigh by-election had been a week later the Kippers would have taken the seats.
Looks like that was true.0 -
Probably. UKIP likely led among voters on the day. Lib Dems among postal votersTheScreamingEagles said:I was told on here that if the Eastleigh by-election had been a week later the Kippers would have taken the seats.
Looks like that was true.
0 -
So is UKIP now the "none of the above" protest party?
Able to claim that they are the new politics. Offer any fantasy policy that will gain them votes. And then dropped faster than a LibDem promise if offered a sniff of power?
0 -
I think that's a fair point, but on the other hand in 2015 the LDs will have 57 simultaneous seats to defend. In Eastleigh they could pour everything into just one.GIN1138 said:It's hard to believe the Lib-Dems could hold on to Eastleigh in a mid-term by election when they was at their nadir in terms of unpopularity, yet lose the seat in much more favourable conditions during a general election...
EDIT: Plus UKIP are more popular now than they were in March 2013.0 -
Quincel said:
The classic dilemma arises for UKIP. Is this poll the justification for sticking with Diane James or do you ditch her for Farage a la Greens in Brighton?
I'm on UKIP to win Eastleigh at 16/1. How I'd love that to come off. Tough to hold that for a year though, and outbattle the LDs now they see this polling.
Think they'd be making a mistake if they parachuted Farage in - James has set it up and gives them a reasonable chance of at least 2 seats if Farage wins sonewhere else. If Farage jumps in, it makes it look like a one-man ego-trip.
0 -
Farage always says he wants to stand for a Kent seat.0
-
If only there were numbers for before/after numbers for the Clegg-Farage debates!0
-
This is simply untrue the Lib Dems did lead amongst postal voters but also by a lesser amount amongst those who voted on the day - see Lord Ashcroft's post election poll for confirmation .Sean_F said:
Probably. UKIP likely led among voters on the day. Lib Dems among postal votersTheScreamingEagles said:I was told on here that if the Eastleigh by-election had been a week later the Kippers would have taken the seats.
Looks like that was true.0 -
What's more, they had the advantage of knowing when the by-election would be called, which their opponents did not.Quincel said:
I think that's a fair point, but on the other hand in 2015 the LDs will have 57 simultaneous seats to defend. In Eastleigh they could pour everything into just one.GIN1138 said:It's hard to believe the Lib-Dems could hold on to Eastleigh in a mid-term by election when they was at their nadir in terms of unpopularity, yet lose the seat in much more favourable conditions during a general election...
EDIT: Plus UKIP are more popular now than they were in March 2013.
With fixed term parliaments, everyone knows exactly when the election is going to be, five years in advance.
EDIT: This will also screw up the finely tuned LibDem postal vote operation.0 -
"Top local issue in the seat was “less construction of buildings / stricter planning permission” "
At the recent UKIP conference Ms James gave a rather dull speech about planning permission. I thought it was odd at the time. Not so odd now!
http://youtu.be/P0EpBG_juIY0 -
That is incorrect .The UKIP local election percentage is 6% down on what they actually achieved in 2013Quincel said:
I think that's a fair point, but on the other hand in 2015 the LDs will have 57 simultaneous seats to defend. In Eastleigh they could pour everything into just one.GIN1138 said:It's hard to believe the Lib-Dems could hold on to Eastleigh in a mid-term by election when they was at their nadir in terms of unpopularity, yet lose the seat in much more favourable conditions during a general election...
EDIT: Plus UKIP are more popular now than they were in March 2013.
LD 36% UKIP 33% Con 21% Lab 8% .0 -
Interesting that the LibDems are still streets ahead for the local council (when do they elect?). That means it's not just a planning protest - rather, perhaps, UKIP are seen as a good challenger at Parliamentary level because of the by-election, but not yet that developed locally against well-known local LDs.0
-
Matt D'Ancona thinks it's down-hill all the way for Farage after the Euro's;
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/10775656/Nigel-Farage-is-staring-down-the-barrel-of-his-favourite-gun.html0 -
In my view Diane James is a far better candidate than Farage. Whatever she looks pretty likely to be elected as an MEP on May 22.0
-
I meant nationally, though you are correct and your figure is probably more relevant.MarkSenior said:
That is incorrect .The UKIP local election percentage is 6% down on what they actually achieved in 2013Quincel said:
I think that's a fair point, but on the other hand in 2015 the LDs will have 57 simultaneous seats to defend. In Eastleigh they could pour everything into just one.GIN1138 said:It's hard to believe the Lib-Dems could hold on to Eastleigh in a mid-term by election when they was at their nadir in terms of unpopularity, yet lose the seat in much more favourable conditions during a general election...
EDIT: Plus UKIP are more popular now than they were in March 2013.
LD 36% UKIP 33% Con 21% Lab 8% .0 -
UKIP-Eastleigh have produced my now-favourite political leaflet.
"Elvis is alive and living on the moon, say liberal-democrats: If you believe LD lies, you will believe anything.
Do you want LD liars running your council?"
http://www.eastleighnews.co.uk/2014/04/ukip-v-lib-dems-in-war-of-words/0 -
My information which is not guaranteed to be 100% correct is that if elected as an MEP she will not stand in Eastleigh in the GE and she will also resign her seat on Waverley council .MikeSmithson said:In my view Diane James is a far better candidate than Farage. Whatever she looks pretty likely to be elected as an MEP on May 22.
0 -
Ms James is still campaigning in Eastleigh.MarkSenior said:
My information which is not guaranteed to be 100% correct is that if elected as an MEP she will not stand in Eastleigh in the GE and she will also resign her seat on Waverley council .MikeSmithson said:In my view Diane James is a far better candidate than Farage. Whatever she looks pretty likely to be elected as an MEP on May 22.
http://www.eastleighnews.co.uk/2014/04/police-station-closure-plan-sparks-protest/
0 -
Are we getting any national Westminster polls tonight?0
-
Fair play to Eastleigh.
At football they won the Skrill South this week so will be in the English fifth division next year.
The town's clearly on the up!0 -
*Betting Post*
As OGH has tweeted but the thread post doesn't yet reflect, you can no longer get 4/1 on UKIP winning Eastleigh at Ladbrokes (who have lowered the odds to 2/1). Best odds are now 7/2 at PaddyPower.0 -
Head to Paddy, and hit max. THat 7/2 won't last long.Quincel said:*Betting Post*
As OGH has tweeted but the thread post doesn't yet reflect, you can no longer get 4/1 on UKIP winning Eastleigh at Ladbrokes (who have lowered the odds to 2/1). Best odds are now 7/2 at PaddyPower.0 -
UKIP should surely stick with Diane James; so I hope they switch. Either way, they'd be smart to select ASAP as they need to bud a personal vote for their candidate.
That Eastleigh is a marginal won't shock anyone. But if the LDs really have to throw everything at it, they might have to take resource away from 2 other winnable local seats: Romsey and Winchester. So might be good for the Tories as these are far from certain Con holds.0 -
Awkward...
EXCLUSIVE: PM hired bankrupt crony to run £60billion quango: Tycoon put in charge of vast Treasury budget by his Tory friends is sacked after MoS probe
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2608597/PM-hired-bankrupt-crony-run-60billion-quango-Tycoon-charge-vast-Treasury-budget-Tory-friends-sacked-MoS-probe.html0 -
Most interesting aspect of this poll imo is not that UKIP are first, but that the Lib Dems have slipped behind the Tories. If that's happening in a seat where the Lib Dems are so dominant on a local level, it does suggest the Lib Dems will fare quite a lot worse in Lib Dem/Tory marginals next year than many predict.0
-
*Betting Post*
On a related note, the 20/1 on Farage running in Eastleigh is also no longer available (Shadsy has cut it to 8/1). Best odds now 12/1 at Paddy Power, which is yet to move any odds based on this poll.0 -
Jobs for the boys !FrancisUrquhart said:Awkward...
EXCLUSIVE: PM hired bankrupt crony to run £60billion quango: Tycoon put in charge of vast Treasury budget by his Tory friends is sacked after MoS probe
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2608597/PM-hired-bankrupt-crony-run-60billion-quango-Tycoon-charge-vast-Treasury-budget-Tory-friends-sacked-MoS-probe.html0 -
The surprise is who changed their by-election votes.
Table 6, page 9
UKIP have Con 4.2%, Lab 14.1%, LD 11.7%, UKIP 92.9%
LD have Con 0, Lab 1.4%, LD 79.2%, UKIP 1%.
Not a lot of pro-LD tactical voting in Eastleigh.0 -
To some extent yes, but it is only 1 point on a constituency poll which has more MOE than a standard national VI poll. I'm not convinced it's as significant as it looks. Even UKIP's 4 point lead though great for them is pretty close to or within the MOE. Sampling for constituency polls is tough.Danny565 said:Most interesting aspect of this poll imo is not that UKIP are first, but that the Lib Dems have slipped behind the Tories. If that's happening in a seat where the Lib Dems are so dominant on a local level, it does suggest the Lib Dems will fare quite a lot worse in Lib Dem/Tory marginals next year than many predict.
0 -
Jobs for the bankrupt boys...Pulpstar said:
Jobs for the boys !FrancisUrquhart said:Awkward...
EXCLUSIVE: PM hired bankrupt crony to run £60billion quango: Tycoon put in charge of vast Treasury budget by his Tory friends is sacked after MoS probe
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2608597/PM-hired-bankrupt-crony-run-60billion-quango-Tycoon-charge-vast-Treasury-budget-Tory-friends-sacked-MoS-probe.html0 -
I'm sceptical about the Eastleigh borough poll because that area includes Chandler's Ford which is by far the Tories' strongest area, so you wouldn't expect them to drop from 28% to 23%. They have their only councillors there for example.0
-
I think it'll be elsewhere but I've had a saver to combined stakes on other places...Quincel said:*Betting Post*
On a related note, the 20/1 on Farage running in Eastleigh is also no longer available (Shadsy has cut it to 8/1). Best odds now 12/1 at Paddy Power, which is yet to move any odds based on this poll.0 -
Sorry for my ignorance, but I literally don't know what you mean. Can you explain what that sentence means for me?Pulpstar said:
I think it'll be elsewhere but I've had a saver to combined stakes on other places...Quincel said:*Betting Post*
On a related note, the 20/1 on Farage running in Eastleigh is also no longer available (Shadsy has cut it to 8/1). Best odds now 12/1 at Paddy Power, which is yet to move any odds based on this poll.0 -
There's some non VI yougov polling in the Sunday Times
Which Govt do you think would be better for
Jobs, Lab 30, Con 29, was Lab 33, Con 25 in October
Keeping Prices down, Lab 25, Con 24, In October it was Lab 28, Con 22
Improving living standards for people like you, Lab 31, Con 27, in October it was Lab 34 Con 250 -
There's no YouGov Westminster VI poll in the Sunday Times 'cause of the Bank Holiday.0
-
In 2013 CC elections including Chandlers Ford they polled 21% borough wide . However you are correct to be sceptical as there are no elections in 3 Lib Dem wards this yearAndyJS said:I'm sceptical about the Eastleigh borough poll because that area includes Chandler's Ford which is by far the Tories' strongest area, so you wouldn't expect them to drop from 28% to 23%. They have their only councillors there for example.
0 -
Simon Heffer:
"The Tory party has been feeding tame journalists with a series of desperate smears against Nigel Farage and Ukip, alleging expenses fiddling (actually, they are allowances, which is a different matter) and accusations of bullying and shouting at Ukip HQ, of the kind that occurs in every other party HQ in my experience.
Mr Farage should be flattered. A year or two ago no one would have bothered smearing him or his party. They do so now because they know Ukip could win the European elections.
If their opponents are reduced to such tactics, it jolly well should win."
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2608144/SIMON-HEFFER-Its-time-grab-Putin-roubles.html0 -
Are we seeing the Indyref polls tonight?0
-
I was making a comparison between Eastleigh with and without Chandler's Ford.MarkSenior said:
In 2013 CC elections including Chandlers Ford they polled 21% borough wide . However you are correct to be sceptical as there are no elections in 2 Lib Dem wards this yearAndyJS said:I'm sceptical about the Eastleigh borough poll because that area includes Chandler's Ford which is by far the Tories' strongest area, so you wouldn't expect them to drop from 28% to 23%. They have their only councillors there for example.
0 -
I've backed the Thanets, if he stands in Eastleigh I will basically have 0 profit from where he is standing now - I think he stands in one of the Thanets but am not ruling Eastleigh out completely.Quincel said:
Sorry for my ignorance, but I literally don't know what you mean. Can you explain what that sentence means for me?Pulpstar said:
I think it'll be elsewhere but I've had a saver to combined stakes on other places...Quincel said:*Betting Post*
On a related note, the 20/1 on Farage running in Eastleigh is also no longer available (Shadsy has cut it to 8/1). Best odds now 12/1 at Paddy Power, which is yet to move any odds based on this poll.0 -
Another poster (AndyJS?) has made this point in the past, but I don't think any of the Kent seats are good bets for UKIP purely because the Tories are coming off such a high base in most of them that the winning post will be very hard for UKIP to reach.Pulpstar said:
I've backed the Thanets, if he stands in Eastleigh I will basically have 0 profit from where he is standing now - I think he stands in one of the Thanets but am not ruling Eastleigh out completely.Quincel said:
Sorry for my ignorance, but I literally don't know what you mean. Can you explain what that sentence means for me?Pulpstar said:
I think it'll be elsewhere but I've had a saver to combined stakes on other places...Quincel said:*Betting Post*
On a related note, the 20/1 on Farage running in Eastleigh is also no longer available (Shadsy has cut it to 8/1). Best odds now 12/1 at Paddy Power, which is yet to move any odds based on this poll.
Since by UKIP's very nature they're probably going to piss off a good two-thirds of the residents of any constituency (women, gays, ethnic minorites, etc.), their ceiling is probably about 33%, so they need a seat which is traditionally a tight marginal so that the winning post is within their reach. By the looks of this poll, Eastleigh could be just the ticket. Thurrock and Camborne & Redruth could be even better.0 -
The poll was of only 506 people so MOE is about 4.5%. But but still great for UKIP; They appear to have momentum.Quincel said:
To some extent yes, but it is only 1 point on a constituency poll which has more MOE than a standard national VI poll. I'm not convinced it's as significant as it looks. Even UKIP's 4 point lead though great for them is pretty close to or within the MOE. Sampling for constituency polls is tough.Danny565 said:Most interesting aspect of this poll imo is not that UKIP are first, but that the Lib Dems have slipped behind the Tories. If that's happening in a seat where the Lib Dems are so dominant on a local level, it does suggest the Lib Dems will fare quite a lot worse in Lib Dem/Tory marginals next year than many predict.
0 -
Front page of the Scotland on Sunday which has commissioned the ICM
Poll: Scotland on the brink of independence
Gap narrowing even further.
Kenny Farquharson @KennyFarq 3m
Front Page of this weekend's Scotland on Sunday. #indyref pic.twitter.com/z4NiBcCaIy0 -
OK , having looked at the full data tables , the local election figures do not include the Chandlers Ford wards but they do include the 3 LD wards which in fact have no elections this year .MarkSenior said:
In 2013 CC elections including Chandlers Ford they polled 21% borough wide . However you are correct to be sceptical as there are no elections in 3 Lib Dem wards this yearAndyJS said:I'm sceptical about the Eastleigh borough poll because that area includes Chandler's Ford which is by far the Tories' strongest area, so you wouldn't expect them to drop from 28% to 23%. They have their only councillors there for example.
Before weighting all 3 main parties had GE VI figures of 90 voters each0 -
The last ICM had No with a lead of 7%, so am assuming this lead is less than that.
So squeaky bum time for Better together0 -
Now then Dave. When I pointed this out about a week a go I was told by a number of PB Hodges that it had feck all to do with Tory HQ....... I did point out the naivety of some people on here was a bit surprising(or words to that effect).anotherDave said:Simon Heffer:
"The Tory party has been feeding tame journalists with a series of desperate smears against Nigel Farage and Ukip, alleging expenses fiddling (actually, they are allowances, which is a different matter) and accusations of bullying and shouting at Ukip HQ, of the kind that occurs in every other party HQ in my experience.
Mr Farage should be flattered. A year or two ago no one would have bothered smearing him or his party. They do so now because they know Ukip could win the European elections.
If their opponents are reduced to such tactics, it jolly well should win."
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2608144/SIMON-HEFFER-Its-time-grab-Putin-roubles.html0 -
No numbers yet but front page of Scotland on Sunday says 'Poll: Scotland on verge of Independence', so swing to Yes clearly continuing in polling.0
-
Godsdamnit. Farewell Scotland, and see you at the negotiating table I guess.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:No numbers yet but front page of Scotland on Sunday says 'Poll: Scotland on verge of Independence', so swing to Yes clearly continuing in polling.
Night all.0 -
Seems SeanT was right then. Scottish Labour must be trembling.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:No numbers yet but front page of Scotland on Sunday says 'Poll: Scotland on verge of Independence', so swing to Yes clearly continuing in polling.
0 -
My Twitter feed has been full of pictures today of Yes Scotland campaigning and leafletting all over the country in the good weather. Nothing from Better Together. Must follow the wrong people.0
-
A campaign which requires people like Gordon Brown and Michael Forsyth to work together was always going to run into problems.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:My Twitter feed has been full of pictures today of Yes Scotland campaigning and leafletting all over the country in the good weather. Nothing from Better Together. Must follow the wrong people.
0 -
When you are in one side of the table, with Simon Heffer, and everyone else is on the other... Time for a rethink surely?compouter2 said:
Now then Dave. When I pointed this out about a week a go I was told by a number of PB Hodges that it had feck all to do with Tory HQ....... I did point out the naivety of some people on here was a bit surprising(or words to that effect).anotherDave said:Simon Heffer:
"The Tory party has been feeding tame journalists with a series of desperate smears against Nigel Farage and Ukip, alleging expenses fiddling (actually, they are allowances, which is a different matter) and accusations of bullying and shouting at Ukip HQ, of the kind that occurs in every other party HQ in my experience.
Mr Farage should be flattered. A year or two ago no one would have bothered smearing him or his party. They do so now because they know Ukip could win the European elections.
If their opponents are reduced to such tactics, it jolly well should win."
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2608144/SIMON-HEFFER-Its-time-grab-Putin-roubles.html
0 -
Well at least this narrowing is happening now, with hopefully time to turn things round.0
-
Diane James is a formidable candidate, more so than Farage who needs to find his own seat. If she gets elected while he fails again we shall find out if UKIP are a real party or just a one man band.
If looking for better odds than 2/1 for the kippers it is 50/1 in Romsey, a similar seat demographically and with an unloved Tory incumbent. If there is a general groundswell to take the kippers past a couple of seats then this is their sort of seat, possibly with some overspill hype.NickPalmer said:Quincel said:The classic dilemma arises for UKIP. Is this poll the justification for sticking with Diane James or do you ditch her for Farage a la Greens in Brighton?
I'm on UKIP to win Eastleigh at 16/1. How I'd love that to come off. Tough to hold that for a year though, and outbattle the LDs now they see this polling.
Think they'd be making a mistake if they parachuted Farage in - James has set it up and gives them a reasonable chance of at least 2 seats if Farage wins sonewhere else. If Farage jumps in, it makes it look like a one-man ego-trip.0 -
Why am I getting adverts for flea products...?0
-
Unless BT have a big old re-think, then I wouldn't be optimistic. I agree with Fraser Nelson on relatively little, but he is spot on about Salmond being a good late stage campaigner. Yes clearly has the momentum.RobD said:Well at least this narrowing is happening now, with hopefully time to turn things round.
150 days to go.0 -
0
-
Nothing of interest on Scotland on Sunday website yet, unless you count a slightly bitchy review of my local restaurant.0
-
scotsman.com/news/tom-peterkin-the-english-born-on-independence-1-3382087
Yes 48% No 52% excluding undecideds0 -
If UIKIP can win Eastleigh, then it could win 10 "others" - only "information" if lacking to the potential UKIP voters.
FPT: CON @ 22%. Crossover coming up ?0 -
old_labour said:
scotsman.com/news/tom-peterkin-the-english-born-on-independence-1-3382087
Yes 48% No 52% excluding undecideds
Ooft, as we say in the purlieus of Pollok
0 -
Wow. Is this Yes Scotland getting the big mo?old_labour said:scotsman.com/news/tom-peterkin-the-english-born-on-independence-1-3382087
Yes 48% No 52% excluding undecideds0 -
Michty me, as they say in Lochee.Theuniondivvie said:old_labour said:scotsman.com/news/tom-peterkin-the-english-born-on-
independence-1-3382087
Yes 48% No 52% excluding undecideds
Ooft, as we say in the purlieus of Pollok
0 -
Could we be within 5 months of seeing the end of David Cameron's Prime Ministership?0
-
0
-
It looks to me that Yes are losing on this poll. Nothing to see here.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Wow. Is this Yes Scotland getting the big mo?old_labour said:scotsman.com/news/tom-peterkin-the-english-born-on-independence-1-3382087
Yes 48% No 52% excluding undecideds0 -
-
Although no Downfall parody on YouTube yet. Poor show from the 'Cybernats' there.Theuniondivvie said:BWatt @BWatt2014 5 mins
New reaches BT HQ #indyref http://tinyurl.com/newzbgg0 -
Eccentric holiday poll in Scotsman.0
-
I'll send you the £100 should Yes win - but I think it will be No stillTheuniondivvie said:old_labour said:scotsman.com/news/tom-peterkin-the-english-born-on-independence-1-3382087
Yes 48% No 52% excluding undecideds
Ooft, as we say in the purlieus of Pollok
0 -
Full story is now up on SoS
http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/referendum-race-on-knife-edge-as-no-support-slides-1-3382125
0 -
Dire ICM in Scotland. Fuck. Major rethink required.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Full story is now up on SoS
http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/referendum-race-on-knife-edge-as-no-support-slides-1-3382125
0 -
With undecideds
Yes 39%
No 42%
D/K 19%0 -
History of ICM / Scotland on Sunday independence polls:foxinsoxuk said:It looks to me that Yes are losing on this poll. Nothing to see here.
AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Wow. Is this Yes Scotland getting the big mo?old_labour said:scotsman.com/news/tom-peterkin-the-english-born-on-independence-1-3382087
Yes 48% No 52% excluding undecideds
42-46 April 2014 (today)
39-46 March 2014
37-49 Feb 2014
37-44 Jan 2014
32-49 Sep 2013
0 -
I am well oiled so may be missing your irony. I hope I am.foxinsoxuk said:It looks to me that Yes are losing on this poll. Nothing to see here.
AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Wow. Is this Yes Scotland getting the big mo?old_labour said:scotsman.com/news/tom-peterkin-the-english-born-on-independence-1-3382087
Yes 48% No 52% excluding undecideds
Dire, dire poll.
Scotland stay with us.0 -
5 months to save Labour. Get Axelrod revving.BobaFett said:
Dire ICM in Scotland. Fuck. Major rethink required.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Full story is now up on SoS
http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/referendum-race-on-knife-edge-as-no-support-slides-1-3382125
0 -
I would never doubt the word of a PB betting gentlemanPulpstar said:
I'll send you the £100 should Yes win - but I think it will be No stillTheuniondivvie said:old_labour said:scotsman.com/news/tom-peterkin-the-english-born-on-independence-1-3382087
Yes 48% No 52% excluding undecideds
Ooft, as we say in the purlieus of Pollok
(and if necessary I'll of course send the £44 odd to you, but growing more confident about Yes).
0 -
Indeed. Good post.AndyJS said:
A campaign which requires people like Gordon Brown and Michael Forsyth to work together was always going to run into problems.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:My Twitter feed has been full of pictures today of Yes Scotland campaigning and leafletting all over the country in the good weather. Nothing from Better Together. Must follow the wrong people.
Worse together.
0 -
Slightly odd article in SoS by Director of ICM, explaining that they haven't got a clue what is happening really.
http://www.scotsman.com/news/martin-boon-a-pollster-entering-uncharted-waters-1-33820880 -
Salmond could well achieve the effing impossible here.TheScreamingEagles said:The last ICM had No with a lead of 7%, so am assuming this lead is less than that.
So squeaky bum time for Better together
Win or lose, the best politician in the UK by a country mile.
0 -
Quite. Better Together need to sort their s**t out!BobaFett said:
I am well oiled so may be missing your irony. I hope I am.foxinsoxuk said:It looks to me that Yes are losing on this poll. Nothing to see here.
AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Wow. Is this Yes Scotland getting the big mo?old_labour said:scotsman.com/news/tom-peterkin-the-english-born-on-independence-1-3382087
Yes 48% No 52% excluding undecideds
Dire, dire poll.
Scotland stay with us.
0 -
THe best time to buy "No" and make lots of money.0
-
For once I agree with you.MonikerDiCanio said:
5 months to save Labour. Get Axelrod revving.BobaFett said:
Dire ICM in Scotland. Fuck. Major rethink required.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Full story is now up on SoS
http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/referendum-race-on-knife-edge-as-no-support-slides-1-33821250 -
AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Slightly odd article in SoS by Director of ICM, explaining that they haven't got a clue what is happening really.
http://www.scotsman.com/news/martin-boon-a-pollster-entering-uncharted-waters-1-3382088
This stuck out:
'For our next poll, we also plan on introducing our standard likelihood to vote question as well – something that worked well in UK-wide elections, and which will benefit whichever side is better at getting its vote out.'
I can sort of see his shy No voter point, but since for much of the time hitherto Yes voters have been portrayed as slightly nutty no-hopers, I'd imagine there's at least as large a tranche of shy Yes voters.0 -
Absolutely no arguing with those numbers.JamesMo said:
History of ICM / Scotland on Sunday independence polls:foxinsoxuk said:It looks to me that Yes are losing on this poll. Nothing to see here.
AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Wow. Is this Yes Scotland getting the big mo?old_labour said:scotsman.com/news/tom-peterkin-the-english-born-on-independence-1-3382087
Yes 48% No 52% excluding undecideds
42-46 April 2014 (today)
39-46 March 2014
37-49 Feb 2014
37-44 Jan 2014
32-49 Sep 2013
Unless it's an Easter holidays outlier.0 -
With the Commonwealth Games propaganda fest this summer, Salmond has a serious chance now.RobD said:
Quite. Better Together need to sort their s**t out!BobaFett said:
I am well oiled so may be missing your irony. I hope I am.foxinsoxuk said:It looks to me that Yes are losing on this poll. Nothing to see here.
AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Wow. Is this Yes Scotland getting the big mo?old_labour said:scotsman.com/news/tom-peterkin-the-english-born-on-independence-1-3382087
Yes 48% No 52% excluding undecideds
Dire, dire poll.
Scotland stay with us.
Anyone got any better ideas than an endless series of ludicrous scare stories that no-one believes?
0 -
Excluding English-born Scots:
Yes 42%
No 40%
DK 18%
Could be heading for the Quebec 1995 scenario where the YES campaign famously claimed they'd won a majority among their own people, ie. ethnically French Quebec voters.0 -
Things like currency union do need to be discussed. But you are right the focus needs to be on the positives!BobaFett said:
With the Commonwealth Games propaganda fest this summer, Salmond has a serious chance now.
Anyone got any better ideas than an endless series of ludicrous scare stories that no-one believes?
0 -
Get rid of EdM and install a Scottish Labour leader.BobaFett said:
With the Commonwealth Games propaganda fest this summer, Salmond has a serious chance now.RobD said:
Quite. Better Together need to sort their s**t out!BobaFett said:
I am well oiled so may be missing your irony. I hope I am.foxinsoxuk said:It looks to me that Yes are losing on this poll. Nothing to see here.
AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Wow. Is this Yes Scotland getting the big mo?old_labour said:scotsman.com/news/tom-peterkin-the-english-born-on-independence-1-3382087
Yes 48% No 52% excluding undecideds
Dire, dire poll.
Scotland stay with us.
Anyone got any better ideas than an endless series of ludicrous scare stories that no-one believes?
0 -
Some suggestion on Twitter that ICM are weighting English born voters are at 15%, when they are actually 10% of the population.AndyJS said:Excluding English-born Scots:
Yes 42%
No 40%
DK 18%0
