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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Commons seats spread betting markets appear to have settle
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Commons seats spread betting markets appear to have settled down with very little movement
Above are the latest Commons seats spreads from SportingIndex which have shown little movement this week. A way of looking at this is that this is where current betting money is going and to me, at least, there are few obvious bargains.
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https://tacticalvote.getvoting.org/latest-news/
Swarm of bees glued to Jo Swinson's bus.
It is not often I am in agreement with you CR, but I am on this. Veganism is the equivalent of evangelical fundamentalist religion. It's advocates give the impression of believing themselves to be morally superior to the rest of the human race, and some are highly militant, objectionable and sometimes violent.
It is also highly questionable as to whether veganism is "sustainable" from an environmental perspective. A wholesale move to the production of vegan produce would have to destroy many ecosystems that depend on grazing, and would make genuine organic production largely unviable. It would also almost certainly lead to mass starvation if it were possible to immediately implement. Veganism is a fad for self righteous eccentrics.
Given that employer NI is probably over half of that the money cannot be found from elsewhere.
Equally most people involved in policy in HMRC don't understand how the real world works. When it was implemented in the public sector they continued to insist that everyone was to be inside even after all the architects on the making tax digital projects left due to travel costs.
"Yorkshire Deserves Better"
Interestingly, they are advocating Net Zero by 2030, with investment in hydrogen. I could be tempted...
Do they expect farmers to relinquish their fields and let sheep and cows spend the rest of their days naturally grazing until they die of old age? Or would there be a mass slaughter of all the sheep and cows as the farmers look to change their fields over to whatever the vegan/vegetarian populace want to eat?
I expect it is the latter and I don't see how that would be any better. So I'm going to continue eating meat - to avoid a mass slaughter of animals.
Climate is a serious issue. XR are not a serious group with serious solutions.
This is like Leave.EU activists gatecrashing a UKIP rally, inviting the press, and sticking union jacks and rude notices about Jean-Claude Juncker on the podium.
Remain are being out campaigned by those they call thick, again!
Brexit Party not to win a seat 5/4
Brexit party to win Heywood & Middleton 33/1
Lib Dem’s 10-19 seats 4/1
Conservatives under 340.5 seats 11/10
Con maj 4/5
Don`t let that cloud the massive issue that is the destruction of the rainforest for cattle ranching, and the biodiversity loss that this entails.
So to save the planet, we will actually have to chop down more trees to make space for more farmland.
I know a fair few vegans, and none of them would give the slightest of fucks what you would think of them or "thrust it" at you. Unlike the sanctimonious tossers on here who absolutely have to tell us how great their views are and how wrong the other person is....
https://youtu.be/LpSRG2HZW3o
Note to editors: Sunil has been a vegetarian for 28 years (since his mid-teens)
Three of my friends/colleagues are vegan. I doubt anyone who does not know them quite wel knows they are vegan (other than a few restuarant staff who may have been asked questions about ingredients). Outside of people you know, you're unlikely to know that 'quiet' vegans are vegan. None of the three has ever lectured me or tried to change my ways.
Some vegans are aresholes. Some meat eaters are aresholes. People are just people and labelling a whole group in one way is rarely useful or fair.
On sustainability, its more efficient to grow crops than grow crops and feed them to animals before eating the animals. That doesn't mean a wholesale and rapid change would be a good idea and it would undoubtedly harm (or at least change, hamr can be subjective) some habitats and harm some other plants/species. Stopping meat production and growing more crops would likely be bad for global grass populations ;-)
No.
It might not end well.
- two LibDem parties (urban and rural)
- three Labour parties (centre-left, left and feminist)
- two Green parties (left and centrist)
- three conservative parties (social conservatives, economic liberals and anti-migration)
So, while the Danish People’s Party and the Sweden Democrats are highly visible, they are matched, indeed exceeded, by anti-migration sentiment deeply imbedded in the Tory party in England, due to FPTP.
Says the man who buys a porche.
https://leave.eu
Or rather not a thing.
https://twitter.com/MhairiHunter/status/1202164383151009793?s=20
Incidentally does the tax receipts the government receives include the payments the public sector are making which the government is essentially paying back to itself? Because if so there would be no net fiscal difference if that element of the tax was abolished as the government would receive less tax but pay out [to itself] fewer payments surely?
£126.5 bn is a ludicrously large sum of money. Lets say we're talking about £70 bn from Employers NI. If public sector payments are netted out that may come down. If benefits go down due to a reduction in fraud (which IMHO is endemic in certain industries) and Employees NI and Income Tax receipts go up you're now talking even less.
As most companies would include Employers NI quite rightly in their wage budget if the tax were abolished many companies could afford an increase in wages to their employees paid out of the savings from this. That then could lead to even more Employees NI and Income Tax receipts. It would also again lead to an even bigger reduction in benefits.
Ultimately once all the consequentials are taken into account I expect net Employers NI would bring in less than say fuel duty [another issue the government needs to tackle as we switch to electric vehicles].
On topic, I would be buying Tory seats at 344 (and selling Labour at 215). It seems like this is an election where the Tory vote could be very efficient. They are picking up ex-Labour Leavers in the Midlands, North West, Yorkshire and North. While they are losing some of the Tory remainers in the South, I suspect there will be enough wealthy types worried about the risk of Corbyn getting it that they will hold their noses and vote Tory. Thus, there might be a lot of reduced majorities in the wealthier parts but few seats actually lost.
For the Lib Dems, it is a tough one to call. The campaign has been disappointing and Jo Swinson has missed a big open goal to position the Lib Dems as the credible centre-left opposition. However, there may be some specific seats, such as St Albans and Manchester Withington, where they can grind out a win whilst keeping most of their core (i.e. ex-the switchers) seats. I wouldn't bet on their total.
For Labour, I just do not see how this will be a night of anything other than pain. They do not seem to be getting the same, ahem, momentum as 2017 or the turning of Corbyn into a cult figure. Having said that, if you are on their Marxist wing, seeing Labour reduced to 150 MPs may not be a bad thing. You would presumably see a lot of anti-Corbyn MPs go and the Marxists may fancy their chances of getting their candidates selected for the next election. Thus, there really would be a permanent shift leftwards in the Labour party.
They could seek to boycott products made in China.
Lincoln, a very close fight indeed
Pros and Cons, for Labour Karen Lee
Pros:
-Student vote - around 1500
-Brexit Party to split Leave votes
-Possible tactical voting from Greens and even LD
Karen has been more hands on and visible in Lincon, with a more down to earth nature. Being a nurse also helps, given the way the public services are at the moment.
Cons:
-Her biggest threat comes from being strongly remain in a 55-45 leave Constituency. A lot of people feel let down,many even calling her a traitor. How much of this would translate into votes, time will tell
- As usual JC, but he was there in 2017 too. Many people have got used to him, like a groin rash.
Conservative: Karl McCartney
Pros: strongly Brexit, will he polarise the 55% vote? Then he wins it.
Cons: quite a few , actually.
-Has been MP for 7 years, so has a lot to answer, when he promises new stuff, like park and ride
-Lot of people have been hurt by 9 years of austerity, so again on the back foot
- Has this impresion of being arrogant and little too full of himself. Read his facebook page, with mostly negative comments from the public
- Was involved in the expenses scandal as well as 'hiring' his wife. People have not forgotten that. He has a corrupt image, in age of austerity
So, overall it's going to be a close fight, with Karen slightly ahead. However, if the Tories had selected a clean newbie, with not much baggage as Karl, then most likely the Tories had this in the bag.
My verdict, close win for Karen, less than 1000 votes . Please feel free to disagree.
The red wall in the North has been shaken. Whether it will crumble, will depend on many factors and not only on Brexit.
And welcome to PB!
I’ll now have to take back all the rude things I said about Nigels on the previous thread 😉
The other day I found myself considering vegetarianism for the first time. It was after I saw a video of a truly revolting halal slaughterhouse, I think in India or Pakistan. The treatment of the animals was harrowing. Obscene. I won’t even link to the vid, it’s too upsetting. You can find it on Twitter if you want.
I haven’t made the leap to vegetarianism yet. Might never do so. But I am now taking much greater care to find out where my meat comes from. If I can’t be sure, I won’t buy it or eat it.
I can do this because I am wealthy. I know it is difficult if you’re not.
Long term the future must be lab grown meat, cruelty free. Until we get there one of the easy and necessary things we have to do is ban non-stun halal and kosher slaughter. It is vile.
https://twitter.com/BBCNormanS/status/1202178347834499073
Extinction rebellion - spackers. Does anyone support these cretins?
Ian Lavery - his late attempt to make himself a pantomime villain = watch Wansbeck
nailed it.
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/10/105002
To be clear though, I'm not advocating total veganism. I'm not a vegan, I eat meat (although not a great deal, probably twice per week on average, although it varies).
I think us meat eaters should be grateful to the vegetarians and vegans out there for increasing our share (by decreasing theirs) of the global sustainable budget for meat production ;-)
Some of them are going to get badly hurt if they keep it up, not just a duffing up by the angry commuters of Canning Town.
I'd have to disagree with you on that.
The Dust Bowl in the US was created when European settlers tried to turn pasture into arable land.
Animal grazing lands are not fungible with arable lands for the most part.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winter_War
And then, strictly not "1930s" there was the annexation of the Baltics and Bessarabia (today's Moldova in most part).
https://mobile.twitter.com/UKStatsAuth/status/1202180835274833921
If the farmer needed their grazing land back to provide for vegan food though what do you think would happen to them? Would they be allowed to graze or would they be slaughtered?
Biden 29; Sanders 20; Warren 15; Buttigieg 9; Bloomberg 5; Yang 4.
Harris gets 5% as she exits the race.
https://knepp.co.uk/home
As it happens I'm about half-way through Isabella Tree's book on this. It is absolutely fascinating, and also superbly well written - she manages to weave quite a complex set of strands of the story and science into a beautiful and thought-provoking narrative. Very highly recommended - put it on your Xmas list!
https://blackwells.co.uk/bookshop/product/9781509805105
https://youtu.be/GYYNY2oKVWU
What we need is better sourcing, labelling and information (and less ideology) so consumers can exercise balanced choice.