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SystemSystem Posts: 12,677
edited April 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Punters unmoved by Jeremey Browne’s reported desire to succeed Clegg

PaddyPower http://t.co/45A6m2316P next Lib Dem leader betting odds pic.twitter.com/63RdopWkRZ

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  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,120
    Does PaddyPower know something we don't? Colossus Carmichael is missing.
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    2nd...Basil!
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 45,457
    edited April 2014
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Does PaddyPower know something we don't? Colossus Carmichael is missing.

    Did Mr C not make it known he'd be leaving politics at the next election anyway? (Just after feeding time with Ms Sturgeon.) That would certainly explain it.

    Edit: he's there, isn;t he?!

  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    FPT
    SouthamObserver said:

    felix said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    felix said:

    compouter2 said:

    Who has rubbished Populus. I have just given the last six poll. One polling company has two polls that give a significantly lower Labour lead than the three companies that have done four polls giving exactly the same results.

    People can make their own mind up where the real situation lies.

    Lol - even funnier seeing the grammatical errors when you rush to riposte:)

    If you are going to make clever comments about grammar, best to make sure you have riposted (!!!) accurately. You do know what riposte means, don't you?

    Roflwmtita - as Corporal Jones put it - " they don't like it up em"

    So you don't know what riposte means. Hint: you are probably best off not commenting on people's grammar on an internet message board.
    Clearly it's all a bit subtle for you:)
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    To answer who, we first need to answer when.

    Any time before the next election and I would have thought Vince Cable is the only candidate who makes sense, with Cabinet experience, offering a decidedly different strand of Liberal Democracy from Nick Clegg and with public recognition.

    After the next election and it's a more open field. First you have to identify which ones will still be in Parliament. Danny Alexander needs to clear that fence first (and the Scottish independence referendum for that matter).

    If the Lib Dems at that point are out of power, they are likely to want to offer a fresh direction, meaning that Tim Farron's chances look better. Are they as good as 2/1? I don't think so, because of his lack of Government experience and his mediocre image on gay rights. The candidate who would do really well for the Lib Dems is Steve Webb (he comes from the left of the party, has shown he can work effectively in Government and has been involved in some popular policies), but I doubt he wants the job.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,713
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Does PaddyPower know something we don't? Colossus Carmichael is missing.

    He's been cut off by Mike's screen grab.

    He's 16/1 with Paddy Power.

    From 40/1 when Mike first tipped him

  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    Thanks Tyke for the link to this ;-)

    "Remember, the model is based on the party’s opinion poll support moving as expected before the next General Election. If the support doesn’t move as expected over the next few months then the model will self-correct and respond to the new situation."

    In other words, if the opinion polls don't move how I predicted....err, I will follow them.

    Caveatalicious!
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,120
    Carnyx said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Does PaddyPower know something we don't? Colossus Carmichael is missing.

    Did Mr C not make it known he'd be leaving politics at the next election anyway? (Just after feeding time with Ms Sturgeon.) That would certainly explain it.

    Edit: he's there, isn;t he?!

    He probably is there, OGH's PP screenshot only takes in so many of the runners. Couldn't resist a dig though.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    felix said:

    FPT

    SouthamObserver said:

    felix said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    felix said:

    compouter2 said:

    Who has rubbished Populus. I have just given the last six poll. One polling company has two polls that give a significantly lower Labour lead than the three companies that have done four polls giving exactly the same results.

    People can make their own mind up where the real situation lies.

    Lol - even funnier seeing the grammatical errors when you rush to riposte:)

    If you are going to make clever comments about grammar, best to make sure you have riposted (!!!) accurately. You do know what riposte means, don't you?

    Roflwmtita - as Corporal Jones put it - " they don't like it up em"

    So you don't know what riposte means. Hint: you are probably best off not commenting on people's grammar on an internet message board.
    Clearly it's all a bit subtle for you:)

    Perhaps. All I know is that you don't understand what the word riposte means, so you made yourself look a bit silly using it when commenting on another poster's poor grammar. But it's a minor point.

  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    compouter2 said:

    Thanks Tyke for the link to this ;-)

    "Remember, the model is based on the party’s opinion poll support moving as expected before the next General Election. If the support doesn’t move as expected over the next few months then the model will self-correct and respond to the new situation."

    In other words, if the opinion polls don't move how I predicted....err, I will follow them.

    Caveatalicious!

    I'm not sure updating a model as new information becomes available is that unusual or controversial.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,688
    Lynne Featherstone?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,713
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Carnyx said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Does PaddyPower know something we don't? Colossus Carmichael is missing.

    Did Mr C not make it known he'd be leaving politics at the next election anyway? (Just after feeding time with Ms Sturgeon.) That would certainly explain it.

    Edit: he's there, isn;t he?!

    He probably is there, OGH's PP screenshot only takes in so many of the runners. Couldn't resist a dig though.

    Since Carmichael became the new Viceroy of Scotland every poll has shown No ahead.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    It's Lamb for the slaughter.
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    Anorak said:

    compouter2 said:

    Thanks Tyke for the link to this ;-)

    "Remember, the model is based on the party’s opinion poll support moving as expected before the next General Election. If the support doesn’t move as expected over the next few months then the model will self-correct and respond to the new situation."

    In other words, if the opinion polls don't move how I predicted....err, I will follow them.

    Caveatalicious!

    I'm not sure updating a model as new information becomes available is that unusual or controversial.
    It's called goalpost moving, not unusual or controversial, especially on this messageboard.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    antifrank said:

    To answer who, we first need to answer when.

    Any time before the next election and I would have thought Vince Cable is the only candidate who makes sense, with Cabinet experience, offering a decidedly different strand of Liberal Democracy from Nick Clegg and with public recognition.

    After the next election and it's a more open field. First you have to identify which ones will still be in Parliament. Danny Alexander needs to clear that fence first (and the Scottish independence referendum for that matter).

    If the Lib Dems at that point are out of power, they are likely to want to offer a fresh direction, meaning that Tim Farron's chances look better. Are they as good as 2/1? I don't think so, because of his lack of Government experience and his mediocre image on gay rights. The candidate who would do really well for the Lib Dems is Steve Webb (he comes from the left of the party, has shown he can work effectively in Government and has been involved in some popular policies), but I doubt he wants the job.

    Whatever happens in September it is likely to become much more difficult for MPs representing Scottish seats to lead UK-wide parties. Either because (1) the UK will no longer include Scotland or (2) there will be a level of Devomax for Scotland which will specifically preclude Scottish MPs voting on a number of issues.

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    SouthamObserver said:

    antifrank said:

    To answer who, we first need to answer when.

    Any time before the next election and I would have thought Vince Cable is the only candidate who makes sense, with Cabinet experience, offering a decidedly different strand of Liberal Democracy from Nick Clegg and with public recognition.

    After the next election and it's a more open field. First you have to identify which ones will still be in Parliament. Danny Alexander needs to clear that fence first (and the Scottish independence referendum for that matter).

    If the Lib Dems at that point are out of power, they are likely to want to offer a fresh direction, meaning that Tim Farron's chances look better. Are they as good as 2/1? I don't think so, because of his lack of Government experience and his mediocre image on gay rights. The candidate who would do really well for the Lib Dems is Steve Webb (he comes from the left of the party, has shown he can work effectively in Government and has been involved in some popular policies), but I doubt he wants the job.

    Whatever happens in September it is likely to become much more difficult for MPs representing Scottish seats to lead UK-wide parties. Either because (1) the UK will no longer include Scotland or (2) there will be a level of Devomax for Scotland which will specifically preclude Scottish MPs voting on a number of issues.

    In theory you're right, but in practice I expect it's the sort of point that would only be made by the sort of people who would never have voted for the Lib Dems in the first place.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,120
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Carnyx said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Does PaddyPower know something we don't? Colossus Carmichael is missing.

    Did Mr C not make it known he'd be leaving politics at the next election anyway? (Just after feeding time with Ms Sturgeon.) That would certainly explain it.

    Edit: he's there, isn;t he?!

    He probably is there, OGH's PP screenshot only takes in so many of the runners. Couldn't resist a dig though.

    Since Carmichael became the new Viceroy of Scotland every poll has shown No ahead.
    A great example of the old causation/correlation saw, unless you think Al's responsible for the shrinkage of that lead.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,120
    SouthamObserver said:

    antifrank said:

    To answer who, we first need to answer when.

    Any time before the next election and I would have thought Vince Cable is the only candidate who makes sense, with Cabinet experience, offering a decidedly different strand of Liberal Democracy from Nick Clegg and with public recognition.

    After the next election and it's a more open field. First you have to identify which ones will still be in Parliament. Danny Alexander needs to clear that fence first (and the Scottish independence referendum for that matter).

    If the Lib Dems at that point are out of power, they are likely to want to offer a fresh direction, meaning that Tim Farron's chances look better. Are they as good as 2/1? I don't think so, because of his lack of Government experience and his mediocre image on gay rights. The candidate who would do really well for the Lib Dems is Steve Webb (he comes from the left of the party, has shown he can work effectively in Government and has been involved in some popular policies), but I doubt he wants the job.

    Whatever happens in September it is likely to become much more difficult for MPs representing Scottish seats to lead UK-wide parties. Either because (1) the UK will no longer include Scotland or (2) there will be a level of Devomax for Scotland which will specifically preclude Scottish MPs voting on a number of issues.

    Polly says it's unthinkable.

    'That’s the Guardian’s Polly Toynbee on this afternoon’s Sunday Politics London during a discussion on Nick Clegg’s leadership of the Lib Dems, telling presenter Andrew Neil that even were Scotland to vote No in September’s independence referendum, it would be unthinkable for any Scot to ever again lead a UK political party, or hold any of the great offices of state.'

    http://tinyurl.com/o59qxq2

  • WelshBertieWelshBertie Posts: 124
    Cable's left it too late. After the Campbell leadership they won't make the mistake of going for a candidate of an older vintage and also his performance in office has left a lot to be desired. A perfect example of 'Those who can, do. Those who can't, teach.' The Libdems will undoubtedly go leftwards when Clegg falls on his sword. Farron is the clear favourite and rightly so.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Theuniondivvie said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    antifrank said:

    To answer who, we first need to answer when.

    Any time before the next election and I would have thought Vince Cable is the only candidate who makes sense, with Cabinet experience, offering a decidedly different strand of Liberal Democracy from Nick Clegg and with public recognition.

    After the next election and it's a more open field. First you have to identify which ones will still be in Parliament. Danny Alexander needs to clear that fence first (and the Scottish independence referendum for that matter).

    If the Lib Dems at that point are out of power, they are likely to want to offer a fresh direction, meaning that Tim Farron's chances look better. Are they as good as 2/1? I don't think so, because of his lack of Government experience and his mediocre image on gay rights. The candidate who would do really well for the Lib Dems is Steve Webb (he comes from the left of the party, has shown he can work effectively in Government and has been involved in some popular policies), but I doubt he wants the job.

    Whatever happens in September it is likely to become much more difficult for MPs representing Scottish seats to lead UK-wide parties. Either because (1) the UK will no longer include Scotland or (2) there will be a level of Devomax for Scotland which will specifically preclude Scottish MPs voting on a number of issues.

    Polly says it's unthinkable.

    'That’s the Guardian’s Polly Toynbee on this afternoon’s Sunday Politics London during a discussion on Nick Clegg’s leadership of the Lib Dems, telling presenter Andrew Neil that even were Scotland to vote No in September’s independence referendum, it would be unthinkable for any Scot to ever again lead a UK political party, or hold any of the great offices of state.'

    http://tinyurl.com/o59qxq2

    Polly, the disenfranchise Diva
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    SouthamObserver said:

    felix said:

    FPT

    SouthamObserver said:

    felix said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    felix said:

    compouter2 said:

    Who has rubbished Populus. I have just given the last six poll. One polling company has two polls that give a significantly lower Labour lead than the three companies that have done four polls giving exactly the same results.

    People can make their own mind up where the real situation lies.

    Lol - even funnier seeing the grammatical errors when you rush to riposte:)

    If you are going to make clever comments about grammar, best to make sure you have riposted (!!!) accurately. You do know what riposte means, don't you?

    Roflwmtita - as Corporal Jones put it - " they don't like it up em"

    So you don't know what riposte means. Hint: you are probably best off not commenting on people's grammar on an internet message board.
    Clearly it's all a bit subtle for you:)

    Perhaps. All I know is that you don't understand what the word riposte means, so you made yourself look a bit silly using it when commenting on another poster's poor grammar. But it's a minor point.

    According to the latest POPULUS you're the one who looks silly:)
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    The stealthy Russian takeover of Eastern Ukraine is continuing:

    AJELive ‏@AJELive 7m
    Video: Pro-Russia activist claims to have seized Slovyansk airport to prevent Ukrainian airforce planes from landing. http://aje.me/1eErsZi
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Vanilla is all over the place, again.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,688
    Theuniondivvie said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    antifrank said:

    To answer who, we first need to answer when.

    Any time before the next election and I would have thought Vince Cable is the only candidate who makes sense, with Cabinet experience, offering a decidedly different strand of Liberal Democracy from Nick Clegg and with public recognition.

    After the next election and it's a more open field. First you have to identify which ones will still be in Parliament. Danny Alexander needs to clear that fence first (and the Scottish independence referendum for that matter).

    If the Lib Dems at that point are out of power, they are likely to want to offer a fresh direction, meaning that Tim Farron's chances look better. Are they as good as 2/1? I don't think so, because of his lack of Government experience and his mediocre image on gay rights. The candidate who would do really well for the Lib Dems is Steve Webb (he comes from the left of the party, has shown he can work effectively in Government and has been involved in some popular policies), but I doubt he wants the job.

    Whatever happens in September it is likely to become much more difficult for MPs representing Scottish seats to lead UK-wide parties. Either because (1) the UK will no longer include Scotland or (2) there will be a level of Devomax for Scotland which will specifically preclude Scottish MPs voting on a number of issues.

    Polly says it's unthinkable.

    'That’s the Guardian’s Polly Toynbee on this afternoon’s Sunday Politics London during a discussion on Nick Clegg’s leadership of the Lib Dems, telling presenter Andrew Neil that even were Scotland to vote No in September’s independence referendum, it would be unthinkable for any Scot to ever again lead a UK political party, or hold any of the great offices of state.'

    http://tinyurl.com/o59qxq2

    Nailed on for some Scot sometime, then?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    MikeK said:

    The stealthy Russian takeover of Eastern Ukraine is continuing:

    AJELive ‏@AJELive 7m
    Video: Pro-Russia activist claims to have seized Slovyansk airport to prevent Ukrainian airforce planes from landing. http://aje.me/1eErsZi

    Nuke Moscow, simples.
  • WelshBertieWelshBertie Posts: 124
    Theuniondivvie said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    antifrank said:

    To answer who, we first need to answer when.

    Any time before the next election and I would have thought Vince Cable is the only candidate who makes sense, with Cabinet experience, offering a decidedly different strand of Liberal Democracy from Nick Clegg and with public recognition.

    After the next election and it's a more open field. First you have to identify which ones will still be in Parliament. Danny Alexander needs to clear that fence first (and the Scottish independence referendum for that matter).

    If the Lib Dems at that point are out of power, they are likely to want to offer a fresh direction, meaning that Tim Farron's chances look better. Are they as good as 2/1? I don't think so, because of his lack of Government experience and his mediocre image on gay rights. The candidate who would do really well for the Lib Dems is Steve Webb (he comes from the left of the party, has shown he can work effectively in Government and has been involved in some popular policies), but I doubt he wants the job.

    Whatever happens in September it is likely to become much more difficult for MPs representing Scottish seats to lead UK-wide parties. Either because (1) the UK will no longer include Scotland or (2) there will be a level of Devomax for Scotland which will specifically preclude Scottish MPs voting on a number of issues.

    Polly says it's unthinkable.

    'That’s the Guardian’s Polly Toynbee on this afternoon’s Sunday Politics London during a discussion on Nick Clegg’s leadership of the Lib Dems, telling presenter Andrew Neil that even were Scotland to vote No in September’s independence referendum, it would be unthinkable for any Scot to ever again lead a UK political party, or hold any of the great offices of state.'

    http://tinyurl.com/o59qxq2

    You're actually taking something Polly Toynbee says seriously??? How cute.

  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    Options
    BobaFett Posts: 990
    2:32PM
    @MikeSmithson - great documentary/focus group on the Red Liberals on C4 News Catch Up site. Very much backs up your arguments.

    Www.channel4.com/news/catch-up/display/playlistref/100414

    Click on film in bottom right
    Flag Quote · Off Topic
  • WelshBertieWelshBertie Posts: 124
    MikeK said:

    The stealthy Russian takeover of Eastern Ukraine is continuing:

    AJELive ‏@AJELive 7m
    Video: Pro-Russia activist claims to have seized Slovyansk airport to prevent Ukrainian airforce planes from landing. http://aje.me/1eErsZi

    Nato need to get it in gear quickly. The more Putin is emboldened the more he'll push it. Yes, it'll be expensive, yes it'll require a hasty rethink on defence priorities in the west but Cold War II is up and running.

  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    On topic - the Liberals would have to have a death wish to install a rightwinger.

    I'll let other PBers do the punch line.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited April 2014
    WelshBertie said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    antifrank said:

    To answer who, we first need to answer when.

    Any time before the next election and I would have thought Vince Cable is the only candidate who makes sense, with Cabinet experience, offering a decidedly different strand of Liberal Democracy from Nick Clegg and with public recognition.

    After the next election and it's a more open field. First you have to identify which ones will still be in Parliament. Danny Alexander needs to clear that fence first (and the Scottish independence referendum for that matter).

    If the Lib Dems at that point are out of power, they are likely to want to offer a fresh direction, meaning that Tim Farron's chances look better. Are they as good as 2/1? I don't think so, because of his lack of Government experience and his mediocre image on gay rights. The candidate who would do really well for the Lib Dems is Steve Webb (he comes from the left of the party, has shown he can work effectively in Government and has been involved in some popular policies), but I doubt he wants the job.

    Whatever happens in September it is likely to become much more difficult for MPs representing Scottish seats to lead UK-wide parties. Either because (1) the UK will no longer include Scotland or (2) there will be a level of Devomax for Scotland which will specifically preclude Scottish MPs voting on a number of issues.

    Polly says it's unthinkable.

    'That’s the Guardian’s Polly Toynbee on this afternoon’s Sunday Politics London during a discussion on Nick Clegg’s leadership of the Lib Dems, telling presenter Andrew Neil that even were Scotland to vote No in September’s independence referendum, it would be unthinkable for any Scot to ever again lead a UK political party, or hold any of the great offices of state.'

    http://tinyurl.com/o59qxq2

    You're actually taking something Polly Toynbee says seriously??? How cute.

    Jings over Somerset is terribly excited about Polly's comments. The sheep are merely following.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    felix said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    felix said:

    FPT

    SouthamObserver said:

    felix said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    felix said:

    compouter2 said:

    Who has rubbished Populus. I have just given the last six poll. One polling company has two polls that give a significantly lower Labour lead than the three companies that have done four polls giving exactly the same results.

    People can make their own mind up where the real situation lies.

    Lol - even funnier seeing the grammatical errors when you rush to riposte:)

    If you are going to make clever comments about grammar, best to make sure you have riposted (!!!) accurately. You do know what riposte means, don't you?

    Roflwmtita - as Corporal Jones put it - " they don't like it up em"

    So you don't know what riposte means. Hint: you are probably best off not commenting on people's grammar on an internet message board.
    Clearly it's all a bit subtle for you:)

    Perhaps. All I know is that you don't understand what the word riposte means, so you made yourself look a bit silly using it when commenting on another poster's poor grammar. But it's a minor point.

    According to the latest POPULUS you're the one who looks silly:)

    OK, I see.

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    compouter2 said:

    Anorak said:

    compouter2 said:

    Thanks Tyke for the link to this ;-)

    "Remember, the model is based on the party’s opinion poll support moving as expected before the next General Election. If the support doesn’t move as expected over the next few months then the model will self-correct and respond to the new situation."

    In other words, if the opinion polls don't move how I predicted....err, I will follow them.

    Caveatalicious!

    I'm not sure updating a model as new information becomes available is that unusual or controversial.
    It's called goalpost moving, not unusual or controversial, especially on this messageboard.
    Basil wants us to make a prediction today about the result of the 2020 general election and stick to it.

    Personally, I think that a triumphant George Osborne will sweep through the gates of Downing Street, basking in the cheers of a grateful nation, eager for his second term (having taken over from David Cameron in 2017).

    *takes off Avery's hat and re-enters Earth gravitational field*
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,120
    WelshBertie said:

    You're actually taking something Polly Toynbee says seriously??? How cute.

    I don't think I indicated how I took it. In fact I'm pretty sure I now know more about how you 'take' Polly than the reverse.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    WelshBertie said:

    MikeK said:

    The stealthy Russian takeover of Eastern Ukraine is continuing:

    AJELive ‏@AJELive 7m
    Video: Pro-Russia activist claims to have seized Slovyansk airport to prevent Ukrainian airforce planes from landing. http://aje.me/1eErsZi

    Nato need to get it in gear quickly. The more Putin is emboldened the more he'll push it. Yes, it'll be expensive, yes it'll require a hasty rethink on defence priorities in the west but Cold War II is up and running.

    There's no taste for it in the Wests leadership. Putin has already own stage one of the New Cold War.
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    @SO

    You must be the only one who does 'see' then ;-)
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Theuniondivvie said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    antifrank said:

    To answer who, we first need to answer when.

    Any time before the next election and I would have thought Vince Cable is the only candidate who makes sense, with Cabinet experience, offering a decidedly different strand of Liberal Democracy from Nick Clegg and with public recognition.

    After the next election and it's a more open field. First you have to identify which ones will still be in Parliament. Danny Alexander needs to clear that fence first (and the Scottish independence referendum for that matter).

    If the Lib Dems at that point are out of power, they are likely to want to offer a fresh direction, meaning that Tim Farron's chances look better. Are they as good as 2/1? I don't think so, because of his lack of Government experience and his mediocre image on gay rights. The candidate who would do really well for the Lib Dems is Steve Webb (he comes from the left of the party, has shown he can work effectively in Government and has been involved in some popular policies), but I doubt he wants the job.

    Whatever happens in September it is likely to become much more difficult for MPs representing Scottish seats to lead UK-wide parties. Either because (1) the UK will no longer include Scotland or (2) there will be a level of Devomax for Scotland which will specifically preclude Scottish MPs voting on a number of issues.

    Polly says it's unthinkable.

    'That’s the Guardian’s Polly Toynbee on this afternoon’s Sunday Politics London during a discussion on Nick Clegg’s leadership of the Lib Dems, telling presenter Andrew Neil that even were Scotland to vote No in September’s independence referendum, it would be unthinkable for any Scot to ever again lead a UK political party, or hold any of the great offices of state.'

    http://tinyurl.com/o59qxq2

    She's wrong there. Completely. Devomax won't stop Scots being MPs outside Scotland. They could easily lead national parties. In the same way, it would be very tricky for someone English elected as an MP for a Scottish seat to become a leader. Also, I'd say that the foreign secretary job - a great office of state - might well be held by an MP representing a Scottish seat. PM and Chancellor would be a lot trickier. Defence could be done too.

  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    Charles said:

    compouter2 said:

    Anorak said:

    compouter2 said:

    Thanks Tyke for the link to this ;-)

    "Remember, the model is based on the party’s opinion poll support moving as expected before the next General Election. If the support doesn’t move as expected over the next few months then the model will self-correct and respond to the new situation."

    In other words, if the opinion polls don't move how I predicted....err, I will follow them.

    Caveatalicious!

    I'm not sure updating a model as new information becomes available is that unusual or controversial.
    It's called goalpost moving, not unusual or controversial, especially on this messageboard.
    Basil wants us to make a prediction today about the result of the 2020 general election and stick to it.

    Personally, I think that a triumphant George Osborne will sweep through the gates of Downing Street, basking in the cheers of a grateful nation, eager for his second term (having taken over from David Cameron in 2017).

    *takes off Avery's hat and re-enters Earth gravitational field*
    LOLAMUNDO!
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    WelshBertie said:

    You're actually taking something Polly Toynbee says seriously??? How cute.

    She was also wrong, and said so on air. She did not mean 'any Scot', she meant any politician of any Nationality representing a Scottish constituency.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    BobaFett said:

    On topic - the Liberals would have to have a death wish to install a rightwinger.

    I'll let other PBers do the punch line.

    Do you think a role as the #2 anti-Tory party is more appealing that a unique (albeit minority) niche as a internationally minded, freedom loving party?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,713
    edited April 2014
    Theuniondivvie said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Carnyx said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Does PaddyPower know something we don't? Colossus Carmichael is missing.

    Did Mr C not make it known he'd be leaving politics at the next election anyway? (Just after feeding time with Ms Sturgeon.) That would certainly explain it.

    Edit: he's there, isn;t he?!

    He probably is there, OGH's PP screenshot only takes in so many of the runners. Couldn't resist a dig though.

    Since Carmichael became the new Viceroy of Scotland every poll has shown No ahead.
    A great example of the old causation/correlation saw, unless you think Al's responsible for the shrinkage of that lead.
    Someone last week pointed out the month before Carmichael was appointed Secretary of State, Yes were ahead by 1% and now they are 5% behind.

    Alistair Carmichael - Killing Scottish Nationalism stone dead.
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    dyedwoolie said:

    MikeK said:

    The stealthy Russian takeover of Eastern Ukraine is continuing:

    AJELive ‏@AJELive 7m
    Video: Pro-Russia activist claims to have seized Slovyansk airport to prevent Ukrainian airforce planes from landing. http://aje.me/1eErsZi

    Nuke Moscow, simples.
    Now that is weird, I was just thinking about Kenny Everett and his Tory Conference shanangans, and you posted that.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    I thought the Lib Dems were at the end of their Teather.
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    AveryLP said:

    I thought the Lib Dems were at the end of their Teather.

    "Taxi for Avery "
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,120
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Carnyx said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Does PaddyPower know something we don't? Colossus Carmichael is missing.

    Did Mr C not make it known he'd be leaving politics at the next election anyway? (Just after feeding time with Ms Sturgeon.) That would certainly explain it.

    Edit: he's there, isn;t he?!

    He probably is there, OGH's PP screenshot only takes in so many of the runners. Couldn't resist a dig though.

    Since Carmichael became the new Viceroy of Scotland every poll has shown No ahead.
    A great example of the old causation/correlation saw, unless you think Al's responsible for the shrinkage of that lead.
    Someone last week pointed out the month before Carmichael was appointed Secretary of State, Yes were ahead by 1% and now they are 5% behind.

    Alistair Carmichael - Killing Scottish Nationalism stone dead.
    Ah, so the infamous SNP Panelbase was in fact accurate? Hooray.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,713
    I have to congratulate the Times for managing to spin Jeremy Browne's comment in such a way.

    That said, he really doesn't like Clegg and the current set up of the Lib Dems,

    Could he persuaded to defect? Tories to take Taunton Deane at evens with Mr Shadsy.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    compouter2 said:

    AveryLP said:

    I thought the Lib Dems were at the end of their Teather.

    "Taxi for Avery "
    After today's Populus poll, the cry, 'pouter, should be:

    "Taxidermist for Basil".
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,713
    Theuniondivvie said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Carnyx said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Does PaddyPower know something we don't? Colossus Carmichael is missing.

    Did Mr C not make it known he'd be leaving politics at the next election anyway? (Just after feeding time with Ms Sturgeon.) That would certainly explain it.

    Edit: he's there, isn;t he?!

    He probably is there, OGH's PP screenshot only takes in so many of the runners. Couldn't resist a dig though.

    Since Carmichael became the new Viceroy of Scotland every poll has shown No ahead.
    A great example of the old causation/correlation saw, unless you think Al's responsible for the shrinkage of that lead.
    Someone last week pointed out the month before Carmichael was appointed Secretary of State, Yes were ahead by 1% and now they are 5% behind.

    Alistair Carmichael - Killing Scottish Nationalism stone dead.
    Ah, so the infamous SNP Panelbase was in fact accurate? Hooray.

    It was a poll that most considered an outlier.

    I've been impressed by Panelbase a lot, both then and in recent weeks.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I have to congratulate the Times for managing to spin Jeremy Browne's comment in such a way.

    That said, he really doesn't like Clegg and the current set up of the Lib Dems,

    Could he persuaded to defect? Tories to take Taunton Deane at evens with Mr Shadsy.

    I read the article too and don't think he came across as a potential Tory defector.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Theuniondivvie said:

    WelshBertie said:

    You're actually taking something Polly Toynbee says seriously??? How cute.

    I don't think I indicated how I took it. In fact I'm pretty sure I now know more about how you 'take' Polly than the reverse.
    Leaving to one side this emetic talk of how to 'take Polly' (presumably with the aid of a paper bag), is there currently a self-identifying Englishman/woman who is an MP in Scotland? If not, do you (or anyone else) know who was the last? Genuinely curious.
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I have to congratulate the Times for managing to spin Jeremy Browne's comment in such a way.

    That said, he really doesn't like Clegg and the current set up of the Lib Dems,

    Could he persuaded to defect? Tories to take Taunton Deane at evens with Mr Shadsy.

    Speaking of spin. Have we had Dan Hodges saying Jerey Browne's comments about Clegg are a disaster for Ed Miliband yet?
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    AveryLP said:

    compouter2 said:

    AveryLP said:

    I thought the Lib Dems were at the end of their Teather.

    "Taxi for Avery "
    After today's Populus poll, the cry, 'pouter, should be:

    "Taxidermist for Basil".
    LOL!!!
  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    MikeK said:

    The stealthy Russian takeover of Eastern Ukraine is continuing:

    AJELive ‏@AJELive 7m
    Video: Pro-Russia activist claims to have seized Slovyansk airport to prevent Ukrainian airforce planes from landing. http://aje.me/1eErsZi

    It's amazing to see kippers taking Putin's side.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,713
    I've just had a look my next Lib Dem leader portfolio

    Cable 16/1
    Farron 5/1
    Steve Webb 20/1
    Julia Goldsworthy 20/1 (from 2009!)
    Chris Huhne 14/1
    Danny Alexander 25/1 (Peter from Putney persuaded me that was a good value bet)

    In hindsight, I think Chris Huhne has a better shot as next Lib Dem leader than Danny Alexander
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    perdix said:

    MikeK said:

    The stealthy Russian takeover of Eastern Ukraine is continuing:

    AJELive ‏@AJELive 7m
    Video: Pro-Russia activist claims to have seized Slovyansk airport to prevent Ukrainian airforce planes from landing. http://aje.me/1eErsZi

    It's amazing to see kippers taking Putin's side.

    They prefer the USSR to the EUSSR.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Next LD will be an arch lefty wont he as compensation.

    Cable or Farron.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,713
    SouthamObserver said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I have to congratulate the Times for managing to spin Jeremy Browne's comment in such a way.

    That said, he really doesn't like Clegg and the current set up of the Lib Dems,

    Could he persuaded to defect? Tories to take Taunton Deane at evens with Mr Shadsy.

    I read the article too and don't think he came across as a potential Tory defector.
    I don't think it would do much for coalition relations if the Tories got a Lib Dem to defect.

    To quote the Aussies when Martin McCague pledged his allegiance to England.

    "It's an example of a rat joining a sinking ship"
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,120
    Anorak said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    WelshBertie said:

    You're actually taking something Polly Toynbee says seriously??? How cute.

    I don't think I indicated how I took it. In fact I'm pretty sure I now know more about how you 'take' Polly than the reverse.
    Leaving to one side this emetic talk of how to 'take Polly' (presumably with the aid of a paper bag), is there currently a self-identifying Englishman/woman who is an MP in Scotland? If not, do you (or anyone else) know who was the last? Genuinely curious.
    Not sure how Tom Greatrex self identifies (British probably?), but he was born & brought up in England.
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    On topic.Tim Farron is 2-1 with some of my money behind him,despite making himself look silly over the bedroom tax.He could work well with Labour and possibly curb some of its' more authoritian, crypto-Stalinist tendencies.It seems that parts of the Labour party are waking up to the political threat of fracking.The Labour MPs who read this blog ought to have a look at the map and see just how constituencies are to be affected.Other areas such as a "Support,Don't Punish" approach to drug policy favour a small wager on the good doctor,Julian Huppert.The 50-1 quoted prices in the fact that he may lose Cambridge.He is a big fan of evidence-based policy too,as a good Doctor should be.
    The Electoral Reform Society's rearch on STV replacing FPTP in local government points to benefits to all parties,large and small.This could be the bedrock of a Lab-Lib pact.
    The Lib Dems need to lose their notions of replacing the NHS with an insurance-based system.Another good Doctor,Lord Owen,is no fool.He knows what they are up to and is backing Labour to show the fundamental principles of the NHS funded by general taxation,and free at the point of use are maintained.The neo-liberals can leave their fantasy island aside when people are sick and disabled.
    Sometimes just saying "Sorry" ain't enuff-ask Maria.
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I have to congratulate the Times for managing to spin Jeremy Browne's comment in such a way.

    That said, he really doesn't like Clegg and the current set up of the Lib Dems,

    Could he persuaded to defect? Tories to take Taunton Deane at evens with Mr Shadsy.

    I read the article too and don't think he came across as a potential Tory defector.
    I don't think it would do much for coalition relations if the Tories got a Lib Dem to defect.

    To quote the Aussies when Martin McCague pledged his allegiance to England.

    "It's an example of a rat joining a sinking ship"
    Would be fantastic for Labour. Internal coalition scuffling. Internal Lib Dem scuffling. Two cheeks of the same arse claim etc etc.

    Go defections!
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    Here's Tim Farron making himself look silly over the bedroom tax.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/apr/03/labour-mocks-lib-dems-peers-vote-keep-bedroom-tax
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Anorak said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    WelshBertie said:

    You're actually taking something Polly Toynbee says seriously??? How cute.

    I don't think I indicated how I took it. In fact I'm pretty sure I now know more about how you 'take' Polly than the reverse.
    Leaving to one side this emetic talk of how to 'take Polly' (presumably with the aid of a paper bag), is there currently a self-identifying Englishman/woman who is an MP in Scotland? If not, do you (or anyone else) know who was the last? Genuinely curious.
    Not sure how Tom Greatrex self identifies (British probably?), but he was born & brought up in England.
    Cheers. That's what you call a safe seat! They could exhume Jimmy Savile and he'd win there as a Labour candidate.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,688
    edited April 2014
    'good Doctor,Lord Owen,"

    Putting those words together demonstrates something odd about you. Incidentally, Julian Huppert is a real doctor. (PhD)
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    compouter2 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I have to congratulate the Times for managing to spin Jeremy Browne's comment in such a way.

    That said, he really doesn't like Clegg and the current set up of the Lib Dems,

    Could he persuaded to defect? Tories to take Taunton Deane at evens with Mr Shadsy.

    I read the article too and don't think he came across as a potential Tory defector.
    I don't think it would do much for coalition relations if the Tories got a Lib Dem to defect.

    To quote the Aussies when Martin McCague pledged his allegiance to England.

    "It's an example of a rat joining a sinking ship"
    Would be fantastic for Labour. Internal coalition scuffling. Internal Lib Dem scuffling. Two cheeks of the same arse claim etc etc.

    Go defections!
    'Internal scuffling' - How is Wee Dougie Alexander today - any more 'Arnie' incidents?

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,713
    OldKingCole said:

    'good Doctor,Lord Owen,"

    Putting those words together demonstrates something odd about you. Incidentally, Julian Huppert is a real doctor. (PhD)

    Lord Owen is great. Split the left, buggered the Labour Party which helped Thatcher.

    The man is a saint.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I have to congratulate the Times for managing to spin Jeremy Browne's comment in such a way.

    That said, he really doesn't like Clegg and the current set up of the Lib Dems,

    Could he persuaded to defect? Tories to take Taunton Deane at evens with Mr Shadsy.

    I read the article too and don't think he came across as a potential Tory defector.
    I don't think it would do much for coalition relations if the Tories got a Lib Dem to defect.

    To quote the Aussies when Martin McCague pledged his allegiance to England.

    "It's an example of a rat joining a sinking ship"

    Is there a Tory constituency association that would want a leftish-leaning Europhile as its MP?

  • WelshBertieWelshBertie Posts: 124
    antifrank said:

    perdix said:

    MikeK said:

    The stealthy Russian takeover of Eastern Ukraine is continuing:

    AJELive ‏@AJELive 7m
    Video: Pro-Russia activist claims to have seized Slovyansk airport to prevent Ukrainian airforce planes from landing. http://aje.me/1eErsZi

    It's amazing to see kippers taking Putin's side.

    They prefer the USSR to the EUSSR.
    Nigel has spoken.

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,120
    Anorak said:


    Cheers. That's what you call a safe seat! They could exhume Jimmy Savile and he'd win there as a Labour candidate.

    Not sure of the exact demographics of the constituency but JS's Catholicism might be more of a factor than the dead paedo thing.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,713
    SouthamObserver said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I have to congratulate the Times for managing to spin Jeremy Browne's comment in such a way.

    That said, he really doesn't like Clegg and the current set up of the Lib Dems,

    Could he persuaded to defect? Tories to take Taunton Deane at evens with Mr Shadsy.

    I read the article too and don't think he came across as a potential Tory defector.
    I don't think it would do much for coalition relations if the Tories got a Lib Dem to defect.

    To quote the Aussies when Martin McCague pledged his allegiance to England.

    "It's an example of a rat joining a sinking ship"

    Is there a Tory constituency association that would want a leftish-leaning Europhile as its MP?

    Rushcliffe or Sheffield Hallam

  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Anorak said:


    Cheers. That's what you call a safe seat! They could exhume Jimmy Savile and he'd win there as a Labour candidate.

    Not sure of the exact demographics of the constituency but JS's Catholicism might be more of a factor than the dead paedo thing.
    LOL

    Says all you need to know about the stupidity of sectarianism.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,857
    AveryLP said:

    I thought the Lib Dems were at the end of their Teather.

    On Hughes say so?

  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078




    Polly says it's unthinkable.

    'That’s the Guardian’s Polly Toynbee on this afternoon’s Sunday Politics London during a discussion on Nick Clegg’s leadership of the Lib Dems, telling presenter Andrew Neil that even were Scotland to vote No in September’s independence referendum, it would be unthinkable for any Scot to ever again lead a UK political party, or hold any of the great offices of state.'

    http://tinyurl.com/o59qxq2



    She's wrong there. Completely. Devomax won't stop Scots being MPs outside Scotland. They could easily lead national parties. In the same way, it would be very tricky for someone English elected as an MP for a Scottish seat to become a leader. Also, I'd say that the foreign secretary job - a great office of state - might well be held by an MP representing a Scottish seat. PM and Chancellor would be a lot trickier. Defence could be done too.



    More to the point,sending Moyes and Lambert back to Scotland would increase the Man Utd and Villa fanbase to vote "yes".
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Anorak said:


    Cheers. That's what you call a safe seat! They could exhume Jimmy Savile and he'd win there as a Labour candidate.

    JS's Catholicism might be more of a factor than the dead paedo thing.
    Am surprised you distinguish between the two.

    You are also a bit harsh on you fellow Scots who seem to have no problems voting for RC's despite them making up only 16% of the population.

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I have to congratulate the Times for managing to spin Jeremy Browne's comment in such a way.

    That said, he really doesn't like Clegg and the current set up of the Lib Dems,

    Could he persuaded to defect? Tories to take Taunton Deane at evens with Mr Shadsy.

    I read the article too and don't think he came across as a potential Tory defector.
    I don't think it would do much for coalition relations if the Tories got a Lib Dem to defect.

    To quote the Aussies when Martin McCague pledged his allegiance to England.

    "It's an example of a rat joining a sinking ship"

    Is there a Tory constituency association that would want a leftish-leaning Europhile as its MP?

    Rushcliffe or Sheffield Hallam

    Naughty!
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,120
    TGOHF said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Anorak said:


    Cheers. That's what you call a safe seat! They could exhume Jimmy Savile and he'd win there as a Labour candidate.

    JS's Catholicism might be more of a factor than the dead paedo thing.
    Am surprised you distinguish between the two.

    You are also a bit harsh on you fellow Scots who seem to have no problems voting for RC's despite them making up only 16% of the population.

    And the trap snaps shut on the wee, blue-nosed moose as it snaffles up the bait.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Theuniondivvie said:

    TGOHF said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Anorak said:


    Cheers. That's what you call a safe seat! They could exhume Jimmy Savile and he'd win there as a Labour candidate.

    JS's Catholicism might be more of a factor than the dead paedo thing.
    Am surprised you distinguish between the two.

    You are also a bit harsh on you fellow Scots who seem to have no problems voting for RC's despite them making up only 16% of the population.

    And the trap snaps shut on the wee, blue-nosed moose as it snaffles up the bait.
    I'm afraid "ha ha I've tricked you" doesn't work that well after Primary 2.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,526
    SouthamObserver said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I have to congratulate the Times for managing to spin Jeremy Browne's comment in such a way.

    That said, he really doesn't like Clegg and the current set up of the Lib Dems,

    Could he persuaded to defect? Tories to take Taunton Deane at evens with Mr Shadsy.

    I read the article too and don't think he came across as a potential Tory defector.
    I don't think it would do much for coalition relations if the Tories got a Lib Dem to defect.

    To quote the Aussies when Martin McCague pledged his allegiance to England.

    "It's an example of a rat joining a sinking ship"

    Is there a Tory constituency association that would want a leftish-leaning Europhile as its MP?

    Possibly, some in Central London.

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,120
    TGOHF said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    TGOHF said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Anorak said:


    Cheers. That's what you call a safe seat! They could exhume Jimmy Savile and he'd win there as a Labour candidate.

    JS's Catholicism might be more of a factor than the dead paedo thing.
    Am surprised you distinguish between the two.

    You are also a bit harsh on you fellow Scots who seem to have no problems voting for RC's despite them making up only 16% of the population.

    And the trap snaps shut on the wee, blue-nosed moose as it snaffles up the bait.
    I'm afraid "ha ha I've tricked you" doesn't work that well after Primary 2.

    McPavlov's moose..
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I've just had a look my next Lib Dem leader portfolio

    Cable 16/1
    Farron 5/1
    Steve Webb 20/1
    Julia Goldsworthy 20/1 (from 2009!)
    Chris Huhne 14/1
    Danny Alexander 25/1 (Peter from Putney persuaded me that was a good value bet)

    In hindsight, I think Chris Huhne has a better shot as next Lib Dem leader than Danny Alexander

    There's ingratitude for you and after all the cracking good bets I've posted on here too.
    As regards Danny Boy's prospects, I'd forgotten that being the most effective LibDem in the Government over the past four years counted for absolutely SFA.

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited April 2014
    Theuniondivvie said:

    TGOHF said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    TGOHF said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Anorak said:


    Cheers. That's what you call a safe seat! They could exhume Jimmy Savile and he'd win there as a Labour candidate.

    JS's Catholicism might be more of a factor than the dead paedo thing.
    Am surprised you distinguish between the two.

    You are also a bit harsh on you fellow Scots who seem to have no problems voting for RC's despite them making up only 16% of the population.

    And the trap snaps shut on the wee, blue-nosed moose as it snaffles up the bait.
    I'm afraid "ha ha I've tricked you" doesn't work that well after Primary 2.

    McPavlov's moose..
    You claimed a significant % of people in Scotland vote in an anti Catholic way - you are utterly wrong.

  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,781
    TheScreamingEagles said:



    Is there a Tory constituency association that would want a leftish-leaning Europhile as its MP?

    Rushcliffe or Sheffield Hallam



    Broxtowe has had Europhile MPs for the last 40 years regardless of party - not sure we've ever differed on the issue. We also agree on gay marriage (pro), overseas aid (pro) and opposition to overturning the hunting ban, though I'm not sure that quite adds up to leftism (and I'm not sure if Browne is sound on hunting).
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,363
    The only one of that lot that looks tempting to me is Steven Webb at 20-1. I have not seen that much of Tim Farron but what I have seen has been deeply unimpressive and well short of leadership level.

    If Charlie was proveably and demonstrably sober he could be a candidate again. There is still quite a well of goodwill towards him and I for one admired his stand over Iraq greatly. That was a brave, principled and correct decision and there is no one of substance in either of the major parties who can claim to have done the same.

    I do not believe it has become impossible for a Scot to become the leader of a UK party (assuming the vote is no of course) but it has become more difficult. As devo max develops and the obvious West Lothian answer is applied the number of available jobs which will allow promotion will be greatly diminished.

    It would be possible, for example, for a Scot to be Education Secretary (for a Scottish constituency, obviously the current incumbent is Scottish) but why would you want all the hassle and inability to vote for your own legislation? There would have to be a pretty compelling reason to make such an appointment. Without such a range of experience any candidate for the top job is going to be hobbled.
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    TGOHF said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    TGOHF said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    TGOHF said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Anorak said:


    Cheers. That's what you call a safe seat! They could exhume Jimmy Savile and he'd win there as a Labour candidate.

    JS's Catholicism might be more of a factor than the dead paedo thing.
    Am surprised you distinguish between the two.

    You are also a bit harsh on you fellow Scots who seem to have no problems voting for RC's despite them making up only 16% of the population.

    And the trap snaps shut on the wee, blue-nosed moose as it snaffles up the bait.
    I'm afraid "ha ha I've tricked you" doesn't work that well after Primary 2.

    McPavlov's moose..
    You claimed a significant % of people in Scotland vote in an anti Catholic way - you are utterly wrong.

    Try saying that to a Rangers fan
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,713
    peter_from_putney said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I've just had a look my next Lib Dem leader portfolio

    Cable 16/1
    Farron 5/1
    Steve Webb 20/1
    Julia Goldsworthy 20/1 (from 2009!)
    Chris Huhne 14/1
    Danny Alexander 25/1 (Peter from Putney persuaded me that was a good value bet)

    In hindsight, I think Chris Huhne has a better shot as next Lib Dem leader than Danny Alexander

    There's ingratitude for you and after all the cracking good bets I've posted on here too.
    As regards Danny Boy's prospects, I'd forgotten that being the most effective LibDem in the Government over the past four years counted for absolutely SFA.

    I'm always grateful for your tips.

    I think he's going to lose his seat next year, and that's going to bugger up his chances of Leadership.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,713
    And all being well, we should get the Guardian ICM poll today.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,120
    TGOHF said:


    You claimed people in Scotland vote in an anti Catholic way - you are utterly wrong.

    No I didn't, you inferred that in the standard, paranoid way of your sort. My facetious comment may have just as much implied that people voted for someone because they were Catholic.

    Wee, blue-nosed mooses, indulging in enraged victimhood since...well, time immemorial really.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    TSE - your betting on the next LibDem leader shows certain St.johnian tendencies, aka covering the field. If I sold you a pup by suggesting Danny Alexander, I could certainly have saved you a few bob by dissuading you from investing in Vince Cable. Read my lips ..... FAR TOO OLD.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I've just had a look my next Lib Dem leader portfolio

    Cable 16/1
    Farron 5/1
    Steve Webb 20/1
    Julia Goldsworthy 20/1 (from 2009!)
    Chris Huhne 14/1
    Danny Alexander 25/1 (Peter from Putney persuaded me that was a good value bet)

    In hindsight, I think Chris Huhne has a better shot as next Lib Dem leader than Danny Alexander

    There's ingratitude for you and after all the cracking good bets I've posted on here too.
    As regards Danny Boy's prospects, I'd forgotten that being the most effective LibDem in the Government over the past four years counted for absolutely SFA.

    I'm always grateful for your tips.

    I think he's going to lose his seat next year, and that's going to bugger up his chances of Leadership.
    But OGH is still keen (although God knows why!) on Chris Huhne, despite him having lost his seat
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,949
    The next LibDem leader can only be of the tiny tiny minority that didn't get bitten by the vampire and vote more loyally for Tory bills than Tory MPs did. Any current member of the government is an absolute non-starter, so that does put Farron in the clear lead. Sadly for the LibDems....
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,363
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I've just had a look my next Lib Dem leader portfolio

    Cable 16/1
    Farron 5/1
    Steve Webb 20/1
    Julia Goldsworthy 20/1 (from 2009!)
    Chris Huhne 14/1
    Danny Alexander 25/1 (Peter from Putney persuaded me that was a good value bet)

    In hindsight, I think Chris Huhne has a better shot as next Lib Dem leader than Danny Alexander

    There's ingratitude for you and after all the cracking good bets I've posted on here too.
    As regards Danny Boy's prospects, I'd forgotten that being the most effective LibDem in the Government over the past four years counted for absolutely SFA.

    I'm always grateful for your tips.

    I think he's going to lose his seat next year, and that's going to bugger up his chances of Leadership.
    There is a greater risk of a yes vote ending Danny's Westminster career than there is of him losing his seat. Both are odds against but they are not related contingencies and taken together there must be a significant risk.

    Personally I think he would make an excellent leader and agree with Peter that he has been the most impressive Lib Dem in the government by a distance.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,576
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Does PaddyPower know something we don't? Colossus Carmichael is missing.

    He's been cut off by Mike's screen grab.

    He's 16/1 with Paddy Power.

    From 40/1 when Mike first tipped him

    He said there was absolutely no chance of him being interested in the job on The Daily Politics a couple of weeks ago
  • isamisam Posts: 42,576
    SouthamObserver said:

    felix said:

    FPT

    SouthamObserver said:

    felix said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    felix said:

    compouter2 said:

    Who has rubbished Populus. I have just given the last six poll. One polling company has two polls that give a significantly lower Labour lead than the three companies that have done four polls giving exactly the same results.

    People can make their own mind up where the real situation lies.

    Lol - even funnier seeing the grammatical errors when you rush to riposte:)

    If you are going to make clever comments about grammar, best to make sure you have riposted (!!!) accurately. You do know what riposte means, don't you?

    Roflwmtita - as Corporal Jones put it - " they don't like it up em"

    So you don't know what riposte means. Hint: you are probably best off not commenting on people's grammar on an internet message board.
    Clearly it's all a bit subtle for you:)

    Perhaps. All I know is that you don't understand what the word riposte means, so you made yourself look a bit silly using it when commenting on another poster's poor grammar. But it's a minor point.

    What am I missing here? Doesn't "riposte" mean "respond with a clever remark"?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,713
    peter_from_putney said:

    TSE - your betting on the next LibDem leader shows certain St.johnian tendencies, aka covering the field. If I sold you a pup by suggesting Danny Alexander, I could certainly have saved you a few bob by dissuading you from investing in Vince Cable. Read my lips ..... FAR TOO OLD.

    It was no pup.He was 25/1, he's now as low as 10/1.

    Cable's age is no barrier, he's only four years older than Vince Cable.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    RochdalePioneers said:

    The next LibDem leader can only be of the tiny tiny minority that didn't get bitten by the vampire and vote more loyally for Tory bills than Tory MPs did. Any current member of the government is an absolute non-starter, so that does put Farron in the clear lead. Sadly for the LibDems....

    Apart from the fact that they are Coalition bills not "Tory bills".

    Labour partisans can't seem to reconcile themselves to the fact that if LibDems can't be their willing fools then they must be Conservative willing fools.

    Fools they may or may not be but they'll have earned the credit or approbrium for being part of a Coalition government. Further it will LibDem members who'll decide the next leader not "Rochdale Pioneers" and they will see things very differently to you.

  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    Let us hope it is Farron. We can then watch him welcome Rennard back into his party as in Tim Farron Jan 2014 "We allowed it to fester and justice was not done,"" .... which is why he will be presiding over Rennard's return. Real car crash tv folks.

    Maybe this time the Lib Dem feminists will actually rise up inside the party and deal with the Rennard problem? Withdrawl of their help to all male LDs? Never on a Sunday? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Never_on_Sunday
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,120
    Great story (must admit that I thought Aretha was no longer with us). Wasn't aware of the removal of earrings thing, useful to know.

    'Patti Labelle Arrested After Fist Fight with Aretha Franklin

    ..While at the concert in Atlanta, Labelle attempted to approach Franklin to resolve their outstanding issues, but Franklin once again turned up her nose. Onlookers say Labelle quickly removed her wig and earrings as she approached Franklin. Aretha, knowing that the removal of earrings is a tell-tale sign that a fight is about to ensue, attempted to prepare herself for the confrontation. Franklin was quickly struck with a Mayweather style right and left and stumbled backwards, landing awkwardly. Bystanders subdued Labelle and escorted her outside of the venue. Franklin suffered only minor injuries.'

    http://tinyurl.com/owwwf5g


  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @iainmartin1: This by @davidtorrance is brilliant, on all the old SNP Brit-hating prejudices surfacing as referendum gets near. http://t.co/C9XW90uOke
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    isam said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    felix said:

    FPT

    SouthamObserver said:

    felix said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    felix said:

    compouter2 said:

    Who has rubbished Populus. I have just given the last six poll. One polling company has two polls that give a significantly lower Labour lead than the three companies that have done four polls giving exactly the same results.

    People can make their own mind up where the real situation lies.

    Lol - even funnier seeing the grammatical errors when you rush to riposte:)

    If you are going to make clever comments about grammar, best to make sure you have riposted (!!!) accurately. You do know what riposte means, don't you?

    Roflwmtita - as Corporal Jones put it - " they don't like it up em"

    So you don't know what riposte means. Hint: you are probably best off not commenting on people's grammar on an internet message board.
    Clearly it's all a bit subtle for you:)

    Perhaps. All I know is that you don't understand what the word riposte means, so you made yourself look a bit silly using it when commenting on another poster's poor grammar. But it's a minor point.

    What am I missing here? Doesn't "riposte" mean "respond with a clever remark"?
    No. In the poshest parts of Surrey "riposte" means to repost and the former is pronounced with the final "e" being silent.

  • isamisam Posts: 42,576
    JackW said:

    isam said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    felix said:

    FPT

    SouthamObserver said:

    felix said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    felix said:

    compouter2 said:

    Who has rubbished Populus. I have just given the last six poll. One polling company has two polls that give a significantly lower Labour lead than the three companies that have done four polls giving exactly the same results.

    People can make their own mind up where the real situation lies.

    Lol - even funnier seeing the grammatical errors when you rush to riposte:)

    If you are going to make clever comments about grammar, best to make sure you have riposted (!!!) accurately. You do know what riposte means, don't you?

    Roflwmtita - as Corporal Jones put it - " they don't like it up em"

    So you don't know what riposte means. Hint: you are probably best off not commenting on people's grammar on an internet message board.
    Clearly it's all a bit subtle for you:)

    Perhaps. All I know is that you don't understand what the word riposte means, so you made yourself look a bit silly using it when commenting on another poster's poor grammar. But it's a minor point.

    What am I missing here? Doesn't "riposte" mean "respond with a clever remark"?
    No. In the poshest parts of Surrey "riposte" means to repost and the former is pronounced with the final "e" being silent.

    I am lost! I blame comprehensive education!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,873
    perdix said:

    MikeK said:

    The stealthy Russian takeover of Eastern Ukraine is continuing:

    AJELive ‏@AJELive 7m
    Video: Pro-Russia activist claims to have seized Slovyansk airport to prevent Ukrainian airforce planes from landing. http://aje.me/1eErsZi

    It's amazing to see kippers taking Putin's side.

    UKIP and Russia have a common foe - the EU!
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,781
    DavidL said:

    The only one of that lot that looks tempting to me is Steven Webb at 20-1. I have not seen that much of Tim Farron but what I have seen has been deeply unimpressive and well short of leadership level.

    Farron's big USP is that his fingerprints aren't on the Coalition. If that is judged to have been an unhappy experience with an unfortunate electoral outcome, then nobody who was involved - Alexander, Cable, Webb, Lamb, Browne etc. - will be able to compete with Farron's not-me-guv stance. It's quite possible that this will be the key factor in the next leadership selection, though it won't hurt with members that he's vaguely left of centre too.

    Steven Webb is your and my sort of choice - an impressive geek who is really interested in policy and doing stuff. His nearest counterpart is Oliver Letwin, and sadly they have roughly similar chances of becoming leaders.

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