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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » GE2019 has become increasingly about Johnson’s efforts to defl

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  • eggegg Posts: 1,749

    Not tonight Josephine.
    The bit about it got it right last time wasnt really true. A mrp closer to polling day looked uncannily spot on is the truth. What was published last night has led to the hash Tories made today.

    First rule of elections is get out there and constantly control the board don’t take your foot off the gas. Tories are defending their poll lead. It’s not a good look.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    isam said:

    The only reason we are having an election is the Brexit stalemate. GE2017 was a fraud as most MPs sought votes on the lie that they were going to respect the referendum result. Boris just wants to get enough Tory MPs in the HofC to see his deal pass, so other policies don’t really matter.

    I think 2017 is also potentially playing a major role. May called that because she said she needed a large majority to deliver Brexit. A lot of Labour leavers were convinced that she was exaggerating, and as Labour were pro Brexit she was protesting too much and actually it was a cover story.

    They are now thinking she was right and don’t want to make the same mistake again.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,099
    edited November 2019
    Foxy said:

    A mixture of reasons, and also a cohort effect. There are a lot of GPs approaching 60 and retiring in the next five years.
    I see no reason to see retention to suddenly improve. Indeed the retention rate is worse than it was 5 years ago.
    Tory promises - not worth the paper they're not written on.
    @camel: Show the above stat to your family and see if they're still convinced about Boris's promises on nurses.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,177

    That wasn't my point, my point is this isn't going to make schools any better
    And abolishing Ofsted would, right? Unspoofable.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,177
    IanB2 said:


    That is an odd one.

    A proxy vote can be overridden, in the sense that the owner of the vote can turn up first and then the proxy gets turned away.

    A postal vote can’t be overridden, in the sense that once the ballot paper is posted, they won’t post another.

    My guess is that the mother won’t get a postal paper, because you can only be on one list and they won’t issue two ballot papers for the same elector. Either the postal proxy form came in too late, or they have messed up and not actioned it.
    Thans Ian - you make a lot of sense. She was very grateful for the response, too.
  • egg said:

    The bit about it got it right last time wasnt really true. A mrp closer to polling day looked uncannily spot on is the truth. What was published last night has led to the hash Tories made today.

    First rule of elections is get out there and constantly control the board don’t take your foot off the gas. Tories are defending their poll lead. It’s not a good look.
    Apparently they lost 9 (?) seats in a week, if that momentum continues we're going to be rapidly approaching a HP.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,063
    Fun fact, that Wiltshire by election, though containing some affluent parts, also contains the most deprived part area of the unitary area.
  • Mortimer said:

    And abolishing Ofsted would, right? Unspoofable.
    I didn't claim it would, I just made the point about this policy not fixing the problems the schools have. Good attempt at whataboutism though!
  • Blimey. What happened. I've not looked at Dem BF betting for a few days. Now Warren is 3rd behind Buttigieg.
  • Unions criticise their members being held to account shocker.
    This isn't going to help schools in difficulty, it is just pointless. They need intensive support over a long period, not more inspection.

    These problems are normally deep rooted, schools have often been in difficulty for years, and find it impossible to retain permanent staff as a result. How on earth is another bloody inspection going to help?
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749

    I mean assume they are still in play - and fight incrediblly hard for every vote there. That is how you keep them.
    Nothing else in play but three for the libdems?
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    egg said:

    I agree. The denials sound genuine, but it’s the no trade deal with US without at least some compromise bit of this that trashes the denials.

    If generics are available anywhere can we not just buy them from where they are cheapest? Can someone enlighten me?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,452
    kle4 said:

    Fun fact, that Wiltshire by election, though containing some affluent parts, also contains the most deprived part area of the unitary area.

    Sheringham is fairly Brexity, but just voted LD.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,063

    I didn't claim it would, I just made the point about this policy not fixing the problems the schools have. Good attempt at whataboutism though!
    Not really whataboutism, since you were saying the Tories miss the point on everything and its very relevant whether you think Labour do not miss the point on everything. Otherwise there's no point to you criticising them in the first place, unless you think there is a contrast with someone.
  • Foxy said:

    Sheringham is fairly Brexity, but just voted LD.
    Must be an outlier!

    EDIT: oops, it's a by-election, not a poll :lol:
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503

    I didn't claim it would, I just made the point about this policy not fixing the problems the schools have. Good attempt at whataboutism though!
    Ensuring teachers do their job properly and do what they’re paid to do = better schools.

    Schools should be run solely for the benefit of children. Not for the benefit of the Unions or teachers.
  • kle4 said:

    Not really whataboutism, since you were saying the Tories miss the point on everything and its very relevant whether you think Labour do not miss the point on everything. Otherwise there's no point to you criticising them in the first place, unless you think there is a contrast with someone.
    I don't think abolishing Ofsted is going to increase standards in schools and neither will having random inspections. I think both polices are flawed.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,644
    edited November 2019


    Unfortunately despite the moderate veneer of Labour defence policy, the party is lead by Jeremy Corbyn and a small cabal of communists and terrorist sympathisers whose first instinct is to encourage enemies of the UK and blame the US for almost every problem in the world. Corbyn’s track record includes support for the IRA, Hamas, Hezbollah, and other anti-Western extremist groups. He has worked for Iranian state TV and, perhaps most alarmingly, could not bring himself to condemn Russia for the attempted murder of Sergei and Yulia Skripal on British soil.

    A tremendously clear and concise piece that, with beautifully understated eviscerations of Swinson ("patronising") and the Greens (who apparently would replace the MOD with a Ministry of Peace and wind the armed forces down to a "carbon neutral defence force" whose members would be allowed to disobey orders).

    An article that bashes ALL non-Tory views is hard to accept as well-informed, and so it proves. I don't know about the Greens, but it's untrue about Corbyn and Skripal - initially cautious, he was shown the evidence and said it was clearly a Russian action and sanctions should be imposed. Nor has he supported the IRA. And he's no more "worked for" Iranian state TV than I have - I've given them an interview, but I'll basically talk to anyone if they don't try to tell me what to say.
  • Ensuring teachers do their job properly and do what they’re paid to do = better schools.

    Schools should be run solely for the benefit of children. Not for the benefit of the Unions or teachers.
    Schools aren't failing because we aren't having random inspections
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,452

    If generics are available anywhere can we not just buy them from where they are cheapest? Can someone enlighten me?
    We can at the moment. US Pharma wants to extend their patents, so that we have to buy the more expensive branded versions.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749

    Blimey. What happened. I've not looked at Dem BF betting for a few days. Now Warren is 3rd behind Buttigieg.

    What cost Warren her chance of winning the nomination is her health policy. Since she detailed it she has gone into death spiral and is out of it now. I can put my finger on the mistake she made. There are problems for sure in US healthcare, but at same time a lot of people like the private schemes they have, it’s losing those people that cost her chance to be president.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,644
    Foxy said:

    I have counted 8 boards; 7* LD in Harborough, 1 Lab in Leicester South. No blue ones to be seen.
    * 1 on a farm near Kibworth. Normally deep blue there...
    A fair number of Jeremy Hunt boards here, as well as a good sprinkling of LibDems. Labour contents itself with window posters - organising stakes is too much hassle unless one expects vampires.
  • camelcamel Posts: 815

    Tory promises - not worth the paper they're not written on.
    @camel: Show the above stat to your family and see if they're still convinced about Boris's promises on nurses.
    I was commenting (in a long winded way) on whether the confusion is deliberate to keep the 'increase in nurses' in the news. I feel it is.
    Regarding my family, I stopped trying to 'educate' them on politics thirty years ago. Pointless exercise. It becomes a war between Labour and Conservative camps, a vicious war in which I am considered to be some kind of weird 'conchie' peacenik in that I refuse to vote for either.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,452
    egg said:

    What cost Warren her chance of winning the nomination is her health policy. Since she detailed it she has gone into death spiral and is out of it now. I can put my finger on the mistake she made. There are problems for sure in US healthcare, but at same time a lot of people like the private schemes they have, it’s losing those people that cost her chance to be president.
    Her problem is having policies. Mayor Pete avoids policy like the plague.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Foxy said:

    Sheringham is fairly Brexity, but just voted LD.
    16.9% swing to the Tories.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Foxy said:

    Sheringham is fairly Brexity, but just voted LD.
    Massive swing from Libdem to Tory I think? Voteuk suggests 429-187 reduced to 41votes
  • argyllrsargyllrs Posts: 155
    edited November 2019

    If generics are available anywhere can we not just buy them from where they are cheapest? Can someone enlighten me?
    Main cause of concern is if both US & UK decide it's in both their interests to increase patents - can't see it - NICE has a limited budget and will only buy if the price is right. However, a lot of party funding is from drug companies. Otherwise trade deal should make generic drugs cheaper if anything.
  • egg said:

    What cost Warren her chance of winning the nomination is her health policy. Since she detailed it she has gone into death spiral and is out of it now. I can put my finger on the mistake she made. There are problems for sure in US healthcare, but at same time a lot of people like the private schemes they have, it’s losing those people that cost her chance to be president.
    That might be the general view, but is that the view of Dem primary voters?
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    Foxy said:

    We can at the moment. US Pharma wants to extend their patents, so that we have to buy the more expensive branded versions.
    Sort of like locked into a crazy PFI contract?
  • That wasn't my point, my point is this isn't going to make schools any better
    Why not?

    Plenty of private companies face no notice inspections because that's the point of an inspection - to see what an honest impression is. Every restaurant in the country gets the Environmental Health Agency visiting it with absolutely no notice someone simply walks through the front door and the inspection starts immediately.

    No notice inspections will be true and honest inspections.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,964
    edited November 2019

    An article that bashes ALL non-Tory views is hard to accept as well-informed, and so it proves. I don't know about the Greens, but it's untrue about Corbyn and Skripal - initially cautious, he was shown the evidence and said it was clearly a Russian action and sanctions should be imposed. Nor has he supported the IRA. And he's no more "worked for" Iranian state TV than I have - I've given them an interview, but I'll basically talk to anyone if they don't try to tell me what to say.
    You are just flat out lying now about the Skirpal incident. He was shown evidence, the major world super powers said it was the Russians and he stood up in the HoC and did his yes, but no, but yes, but we should send our tests to Russia, open dialogue, BS.
    You own parties MPs couldn't believe he did and were outraged.
  • HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185
    I'm waiting for the next big ridiculous pledge that is almost impossible to actually acheive in any meaningful way.
    Stripey paint factories in high unemployment areas?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,063
    Foxy said:

    Her problem is having policies. Mayor Pete avoids policy like the plague.
    Well, it's meant to be all about how candidates make you feel thesedays, and who they are(or are not), so that's the way of the future I guess for worse or...no, just for worse.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Foxy said:

    Sheringham is fairly Brexity, but just voted LD.
    Did they have the GE early there?
  • Why not?

    Plenty of private companies face no notice inspections because that's the point of an inspection - to see what an honest impression is. Every restaurant in the country gets the Environmental Health Agency visiting it with absolutely no notice someone simply walks through the front door and the inspection starts immediately.

    No notice inspections will be true and honest inspections.
    I'm not arguing against the principle of inspections, I am arguing against the idea of this being the magic bullet that will suddenly make our schools better. It won't, however much the Tories pretend otherwise.
  • Must be an outlier!

    EDIT: oops, it's a by-election, not a poll :lol:
    Outlier's can very much be deleted even if it's a real result. Not entirely sure why outliers are allowed to be deleted in stats.
  • HaroldO said:

    I'm waiting for the next big ridiculous pledge that is almost impossible to actually acheive in any meaningful way.
    Stripey paint factories in high unemployment areas?
    Labour should be able to burn through another £100billion by polling day without breaking into a sweat.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    An article that bashes ALL non-Tory views is hard to accept as well-informed, and so it proves. I don't know about the Greens, but it's untrue about Corbyn and Skripal - initially cautious, he was shown the evidence and said it was clearly a Russian action and sanctions should be imposed. Nor has he supported the IRA. And he's no more "worked for" Iranian state TV than I have - I've given them an interview, but I'll basically talk to anyone if they don't try to tell me what to say.
    Anyone? How much for?
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,138
    alex_ said:

    Massive swing from Libdem to Tory I think? Voteuk suggests 429-187 reduced to 41votes
    The former Lib Dem councillor had a big personal vote. The Con candidate was a former councillor.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    The north norfolk result supports the idea that the LDs will lose the seat, enormous swing to the Tories even though they just fell short of taking a very safe LD seat on the council
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749

    That might be the general view, but is that the view of Dem primary voters?
    It’s our credible answer to your question until a better one comes along, possibly from RCS. But I think yes, they may be Dems but they may still prefer their current plan than what’s proposed.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,031
    edited November 2019
    egg said:

    Nothing else in play but three for the libdems?
    The LibDems going for Revoke went down very badly in the Brexity SW. As we all assumed it would when it was announced. It has been a double whammy though with Jo Swinson, who for some reason I can't fathom, really gets up many voters' noses. That has been the surprise element of the campaign.
    If you count Cheltenhm as the SW (I don't) then that is very much in play. There's some fun and games in Bristol, but I don't know the subtleties of its politics.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,031
    HaroldO said:

    I'm waiting for the next big ridiculous pledge that is almost impossible to actually acheive in any meaningful way.
    Stripey paint factories in high unemployment areas?
    Tartan paint factories in Scotland....
  • HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185

    Labour should be able to burn through another £100billion by polling day without breaking into a sweat.
    Brexit Bonus v MMT. It's like the worst fight you've ever seen.
  • Do find it funny that people attack Labour's spending yet are happy to walk over the cliff with Johnson on a No Deal Brexit which the IFS concludes will be a hell of a lot worse
  • Do find it funny that people attack Labour's spending yet are happy to walk over the cliff with Johnson on a No Deal Brexit which the IFS concludes will be a hell of a lot worse

    Not happy with either myself.
  • Not happy with either myself.
    And that's a fairly respectable position to have.

    My view is this: Tory majority leads to a damaging Brexit, the only chance of Remain is with Labour in some form, it's really that simple.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,452
    nunu2 said:
    I think Lib Dems will hold on there.
  • camelcamel Posts: 815

    Do find it funny that people attack Labour's spending yet are happy to walk over the cliff with Johnson on a No Deal Brexit which the IFS concludes will be a hell of a lot worse

    To be fair, the tories haven't put No Deal Brexit in their manifesto as a firm commitment.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    Just seen QT

    Brutal for Tories on NHS nurses.

    Questioner If I have 3 apples and the Tories give me 2 more apples do I have 8 apples.

    Lewis eventually admits that it's 32k more and we won't be losing 18k.

    So for any normal person that's 32k more. Much hilarity when Lewis tried to spin it as 50k
  • Do find it funny that people attack Labour's spending yet are happy to walk over the cliff with Johnson on a No Deal Brexit which the IFS concludes will be a hell of a lot worse

    A - it won't be a No Deal Brexit. He got a deal remember? And the remainer parliament didn't like it so he had to call an election.

    B - It won't be worse. In actual fact we'll be 350 M better off per week.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Foxy said:

    We can at the moment. US Pharma wants to extend their patents, so that we have to buy the more expensive branded versions.
    Sorry to be so stupid but how can anyone force us to commit to buying something we don't want to buy? I have 11 different prescription items and it's difficult to recognise what the actual medicine is because they come in different wrappers with different names,
  • camel said:

    To be fair, the tories haven't put No Deal Brexit in their manifesto as a firm commitment.
    That is true - but it's a possibility. I do not think there's any risk of that with Labour.

    But even if it's not a No Deal, the Treasury estimates stated that Johnson's favoured deal would still do great damage to the economy. I do not know if the IFS did a study on that deal, or whether it's only done No Deal - but either way, it's not looking good.
  • A - it won't be a No Deal Brexit. He got a deal remember? And the remainer parliament didn't like it so he had to call an election.

    B - It won't be worse. In actual fact we'll be 350 M better off per week.
    I hope this is sarcasm
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,452

    Just seen QT

    Brutal for Tories on NHS nurses.

    Questioner If I have 3 apples and the Tories give me 2 more apples do I have 8 apples.

    Lewis eventually admits that it's 32k more and we won't be losing 18k.

    So for any normal person that's 32k more. Much hilarity when Lewis tried to spin it as 50k

    Tories = Liars has a lot of cut through. People may not like Corbyn, but they do believe him.
  • QT seemed to rebuff the anti-Semitism stuff and go more on Islamophobia. I know QT isn't at all representative but is it cutting through?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Foxy said:

    I think Lib Dems will hold on there.
    I dont think it will even be close. Easy Con gain
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,466
    egg said:

    Nothing else in play but three for the libdems?
    What about Wells where Tessa Munt challenges James Heappey.....lots of labour votes to squeeze
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,031
    Foxy said:

    I think Lib Dems will hold on there.
    Lamb's majority in 2017 was only 3,500. He had a big personal vote. And we've just seen a 16% swing away from the LibDems in the heart of that seat.

    Brave thinking....
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    we'll have no truck with all that affordability nonsense - we're proud to be profligate
  • Foxy said:

    Tories = Liars has a lot of cut through. People may not like Corbyn, but they do believe him.
    I think they believe him slightly more than Johnson - and that's all he needs.

    We do see this in the leadership rankings, as Johnson falls Corbyn seems to climb
  • I hope this is sarcasm
    Issa leaver - I want to vote tory but the only way to beat the SNP is by voting for the mad labour manifesto. (Or I might vote Lib Dem to help them save their deposit - Legalise Weed! Yeah!). I'm having a good campaign.
  • Issa leaver - I want to vote tory but the only way to beat the SNP is by voting for the mad labour manifesto. (Or I might vote Lib Dem to help them save their deposit - Legalise Weed! Yeah!). I'm having a good campaign.
    If you want to swap a vote I'm voting Lib Dem?
  • I'm not arguing against the principle of inspections, I am arguing against the idea of this being the magic bullet that will suddenly make our schools better. It won't, however much the Tories pretend otherwise.
    It is not a magic bullet, there is no magic bullet. But clear and honest inspections help identify and address issues that need improving - and where things are going great and you can just leave things be.
  • It seems to me that this Tory majority is based on very small swings in seats, that can easily go the other way. Presumably that's why a majority falls away so quickly?
  • If you want to swap a vote I'm voting Lib Dem?
    Who you trying to beat????
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    I think they believe him slightly more than Johnson - and that's all he needs.

    We do see this in the leadership rankings, as Johnson falls Corbyn seems to climb
    Corbyn trails BJ in trustworthiness in the polling
  • Corbyn trails BJ in trustworthiness in the polling
    I think it depends on the poll doesn't it - I've seen him ahead in others, behind in some. It's not much of a gap from what I've seen, a few points in it. But my point is that Corbyn seems to be going up, Johnson seems to be going down
  • Who you trying to beat????
    Tory MP with 30,000 majority, it's not going to happen but would make my vote feel less wasted
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    It seems to me that this Tory majority is based on very small swings in seats, that can easily go the other way. Presumably that's why a majority falls away so quickly?

    Obviously. On UNS there will always be a tranche of hyper marginals around whatever position you start. Equally a 2% swing to Tory from here = landslide
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited November 2019

    Just seen QT

    Brutal for Tories on NHS nurses.

    Questioner If I have 3 apples and the Tories give me 2 more apples do I have 8 apples.

    Lewis eventually admits that it's 32k more and we won't be losing 18k.

    So for any normal person that's 32k more. Much hilarity when Lewis tried to spin it as 50k

    Its 50k more if you spend more than 30 seconds thinking about it. But fine if you want to say 32k more than's still more.

    There would have been 280k at the end of next Parliament. Under these plans there will be 330k instead. You tell me what the difference is between 280k and 330k.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Foxy said:

    Tories = Liars has a lot of cut through. People may not like Corbyn, but they do believe him.
    No, they really do not.

  • Lamb's majority in 2017 was only 3,500. He had a big personal vote. And we've just seen a 16% swing away from the LibDems in the heart of that seat.

    Brave thinking....
    North Norfolk also voted 58.4% to Leave.

    The only thing really going in the LDs favour is the absence of a Green candidate.
  • Tory MP with 30,000 majority, it's not going to happen but would make my vote feel less wasted
    Well as I stated I'm actually trying to support Tories - I'm not sure us shifting losing votes about is going to help the tactical voting cause anyway. Thanks for the offer though.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    The LibDems going for Revoke went down very badly in the Brexity SW. As we all assumed it would when it was announced. It has been a double whammy though with Jo Swinson, who for some reason I can't fathom, really gets up many voters' noses. That has been the surprise element of the campaign.
    If you count Cheltenhm as the SW (I don't) then that is very much in play. There's some fun and games in Bristol, but I don't know the subtleties of its politics.
    You really can't understand why Swansong gets up so many noses?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    I think it depends on the poll doesn't it - I've seen him ahead in others, behind in some. It's not much of a gap from what I've seen, a few points in it. But my point is that Corbyn seems to be going up, Johnson seems to be going down
    Movement seems very marginal though (the great Swinson collapse aside), it's a little bit down for BJ a little up for JC which supports a slight poll narrowing . And unless and until more sub 10 lead polls appear it is only a slight narrowing
  • camelcamel Posts: 815

    Its 50k more if you spend more than 30 seconds thinking about it. But fine if you want to say 32k more than's still more.

    There would have been 280k at the end of next Parliament. Under these plans there will be 330k instead. You tell me what the difference is between 280k and 330k.
    You are Matt Hancock and I claim my.....
  • Well as I stated I'm actually trying to support Tories - I'm not sure us shifting losing votes about is going to help the tactical voting cause anyway. Thanks for the offer though.
    Oh I see, I thought you wanted the Tories out, otherwise I wouldn't have offered. No worries
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,452

    Its 50k more if you spend more than 30 seconds thinking about it. But fine if you want to say 32k more than's still more.

    There would have been 280k at the end of next Parliament. Under these plans there will be 330k instead. You tell me what the difference is between 280k and 330k.
    Why should nurse retention suddenly dramatically improve? It has been flat for a decade, as vacancies grow.
  • My guess is that the Tories will take a view by the weekend as to whether being frit or being barbecued by Neil is the lesser of two evils. If the frit vibe snowballs in the press by Saturday, he'll have to do it. (And I suspect Neil making himself available at the time BJ has already said he'll do Marr on Sunday morning is the way out of it).

    Next guess, the complaint to Ofcom about C4 will get nowhere. Two reasons: 1. the general direction since that bit of the RPA was repealed is that the refusal of an invitee to attend can't veto the event. Sure, the law only covered constituency reports, but it was binned because candidates just never got on TV. 2. The Ofcom code and guidance give broadcasters huge leeway in how they achieve due impartiality. A couple of ten minute slots with leading Tories on C4 News (same time slot, same production team, same anchors) over the next week will sort it. Read their finding in ITV v Vote Leave if you're in doubt. (Apart from all this, here's the crucial bit: they invited him to a *leaders'* debate with good notice; he chose not to take part).
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749

    The LibDems going for Revoke went down very badly in the Brexity SW. As we all assumed it would when it was announced. It has been a double whammy though with Jo Swinson, who for some reason I can't fathom, really gets up many voters' noses. That has been the surprise element of the campaign.
    If you count Cheltenhm as the SW (I don't) then that is very much in play. There's some fun and games in Bristol, but I don't know the subtleties of its politics.
    I can speak for Bristol. I would be surprised if Labour lost W, E, or S. it’s a very remain metropolitan area the sort that will provide labour’s 180 to 220 seats in this election. I was surprised NW fell last time to labour, if Boris is getting a majority NW will be part of it. I think Avonmouth is in NW, and local media vox popped a young lady coming out a food bank yesterday who was voting for Boris!!!
    Labour won’t pick up anything new around here like their target Filton. They will likely lose Stroud.
    In a betting sense Tories retain Cheltenham, but losing Wells might be good bets.
    A surprise in Swindon May not be a surprise if brexit blamed for factory closure?
    The world changes around us. There’s an effect outside SE London as migrations Out the city make the surrounds more labour? Same thing probably happening everywhere. Meanwhile the run down parts of inner cities transform into places that return green councillors.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,692
    edited November 2019
    Norman Lamb is on record as saying he didn't agree with the revoke policy from Jo Swinson's Liberal Democrats so of they do lose North Norfolk they'll only have themselves to blame...
  • Foxy said:

    Tories = Liars has a lot of cut through. People may not like Corbyn, but they do believe him.
    Having a laugh?
  • camelcamel Posts: 815
    @CorrectHorseBattery

    Parents take Ofsted reports into account when choosing schools and schools advertis them heavily to attract pupils. A bit like taking into account the tripadvisor stars before choosing a restaurant. Ratings are more important to the man on the clapham omnibus than ever and colour ALL decisions massively. I can think of no parent who would think scrapping Ofsted is a good idea, regardless of the pedagogical arguments.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    Do find it funny that people attack Labour's spending yet are happy to walk over the cliff with Johnson on a No Deal Brexit which the IFS concludes will be a hell of a lot worse

    Boris agreed a deal. Whatever you think of it, it ain't No Deal.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,031


    You really can't understand why Swansong gets up so many noses?

    But I thought she would be given a fair hearing by the people she was trying to win over.....

    (and Swansong was my creation, I'll have you know!)
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited November 2019
    Green gain in oxon with a massive vote increase. Tories second but vote up 7%, labour the only vote losers on the night in 4th

    Green gain from independent
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,452

    I think it depends on the poll doesn't it - I've seen him ahead in others, behind in some. It's not much of a gap from what I've seen, a few points in it. But my point is that Corbyn seems to be going up, Johnson seems to be going down
    The more people see of BoZo the more people realise what a fraud he is. That is why the Tories have him in primary schools rather than press interviews.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    edited November 2019

    The LibDems going for Revoke went down very badly in the Brexity SW. As we all assumed it would when it was announced. It has been a double whammy though with Jo Swinson, who for some reason I can't fathom, really gets up many voters' noses. That has been the surprise element of the campaign.
    If you count Cheltenhm as the SW (I don't) then that is very much in play. There's some fun and games in Bristol, but I don't know the subtleties of its politics.
    My wife really likes the Lib Dems, thinks the sun shines out of our local candidates backside (tbh he is a great public servant).

    She really dislikes Swinson though.
  • Meanwhile, lolz in the red media outrider camp, as Owen Jones calls on journos to do their job properly....

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1200187270675992578

    ....while forgetting the Great Leader's wish that they, er, don't :smiley:

    https://www.indy100.com/video/politics/jeremy-corbyn-i-ask-our-media,-as-good-journalists,-to-just-report-what-we-say-Jz4LHWIp
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Having a laugh?
    Just showing his prejudices - nothing new
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Foxy said:

    Tories = Liars has a lot of cut through. People may not like Corbyn, but they do believe him.
    People believe Corbyn???? You're not even having a laugh. Sorry, keep taking the tablets, they're important.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    My guess is that the Tories will take a view by the weekend as to whether being frit or being barbecued by Neil is the lesser of two evils. If the frit vibe snowballs in the press by Saturday, he'll have to do it. (And I suspect Neil making himself available at the time BJ has already said he'll do Marr on Sunday morning is the way out of it).

    Next guess, the complaint to Ofcom about C4 will get nowhere. Two reasons: 1. the general direction since that bit of the RPA was repealed is that the refusal of an invitee to attend can't veto the event. Sure, the law only covered constituency reports, but it was binned because candidates just never got on TV. 2. The Ofcom code and guidance give broadcasters huge leeway in how they achieve due impartiality. A couple of ten minute slots with leading Tories on C4 News (same time slot, same production team, same anchors) over the next week will sort it. Read their finding in ITV v Vote Leave if you're in doubt. (Apart from all this, here's the crucial bit: they invited him to a *leaders'* debate with good notice; he chose not to take part).

    He would be mad to avoid it.

    Labour supporters on here say it makes no difference either way.

    So, tough it out and he must know tactics to use to get through it - he is a bloody politician after all!!!!
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    GIN1138 said:

    Norman Lamb js on record as sating he didn't agree with the revoke policy from Jon Swinson's Liberal Democrats so of they do lose North Norfolk they'll only have themselves to blame...

    Vince is frosty towards it to. He says it’s only revoke if libdems win election otherwise it’s its same old 2nd ref policy. The nuclear weapon policy feels a lot different these days too?
    I don’t really want to say this about Jo Swinson. But as I think I am fair minded I do want to say it. As the election has moved on, she has grown on me. I quite like her now. She feels like one of us. You know, a pleb. I don’t think I would come across any different, serious and earnest and a little shrill if I job swapped with her tomorrow.
    Gotta feeling there’s a long way to go in this election.
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