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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » GE2019 has become increasingly about Johnson’s efforts to defl

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  • Options
    eggegg Posts: 1,749

    Is MRP not being updated daily then?

    Not tonight Josephine.
    The bit about it got it right last time wasnt really true. A mrp closer to polling day looked uncannily spot on is the truth. What was published last night has led to the hash Tories made today.

    First rule of elections is get out there and constantly control the board don’t take your foot off the gas. Tories are defending their poll lead. It’s not a good look.
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    alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    isam said:

    The only reason we are having an election is the Brexit stalemate. GE2017 was a fraud as most MPs sought votes on the lie that they were going to respect the referendum result. Boris just wants to get enough Tory MPs in the HofC to see his deal pass, so other policies don’t really matter.

    I think 2017 is also potentially playing a major role. May called that because she said she needed a large majority to deliver Brexit. A lot of Labour leavers were convinced that she was exaggerating, and as Labour were pro Brexit she was protesting too much and actually it was a cover story.

    They are now thinking she was right and don’t want to make the same mistake again.
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,861
    edited November 2019
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    This nurses thing seems like such an own goal.

    Why did they not go with 20,000 more nurses? It would have been true and they wouldn't have lost the confidence of the public

    The retention stuff is just crap. It is why we have fewer GPs than 5 years ago, despite promises of thousands more.
    https://twitter.com/nickbostock/status/1200002652534390784?s=19
    And why are they leaving? Because of extreme stress, budget pressures and pensions.
    A mixture of reasons, and also a cohort effect. There are a lot of GPs approaching 60 and retiring in the next five years.
    I see no reason to see retention to suddenly improve. Indeed the retention rate is worse than it was 5 years ago.
    Tory promises - not worth the paper they're not written on.
    @camel: Show the above stat to your family and see if they're still convinced about Boris's promises on nurses.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956

    https://news.sky.com/story/general-election-conservative-plan-for-no-notice-school-inspections-criticised-by-tecahing-unions-11873002

    The Tories just consistently miss the point on everything. Schools aren't bad because of inspections, they're bad because our education policy is an absolute disaster.

    Unions criticise their members being held to account shocker.
    That wasn't my point, my point is this isn't going to make schools any better
    And abolishing Ofsted would, right? Unspoofable.
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956
    IanB2 said:

    Mortimer said:

    Electoral edge case question. Any help much appreciated.

    A friend who lives abroad has just messaged me asking a question about her vote that I confess I've never encountered before.

    She lives abroad with a postal vote, but because of concerns about getting her ballot paper on time subsequently registered her mother as her proxy-by-post. The original polling papers have now arrived with said friend, but she wants to know if she can still use these, and instruct her mother not to use the proxy vote - or if she now has to go with the proxy-by-post route?


    That is an odd one.

    A proxy vote can be overridden, in the sense that the owner of the vote can turn up first and then the proxy gets turned away.

    A postal vote can’t be overridden, in the sense that once the ballot paper is posted, they won’t post another.

    My guess is that the mother won’t get a postal paper, because you can only be on one list and they won’t issue two ballot papers for the same elector. Either the postal proxy form came in too late, or they have messed up and not actioned it.
    Thans Ian - you make a lot of sense. She was very grateful for the response, too.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,839
  • Options
    egg said:

    Is MRP not being updated daily then?

    Not tonight Josephine.
    The bit about it got it right last time wasnt really true. A mrp closer to polling day looked uncannily spot on is the truth. What was published last night has led to the hash Tories made today.

    First rule of elections is get out there and constantly control the board don’t take your foot off the gas. Tories are defending their poll lead. It’s not a good look.
    Apparently they lost 9 (?) seats in a week, if that momentum continues we're going to be rapidly approaching a HP.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,058
    Fun fact, that Wiltshire by election, though containing some affluent parts, also contains the most deprived part area of the unitary area.
  • Options
    Mortimer said:

    https://news.sky.com/story/general-election-conservative-plan-for-no-notice-school-inspections-criticised-by-tecahing-unions-11873002

    The Tories just consistently miss the point on everything. Schools aren't bad because of inspections, they're bad because our education policy is an absolute disaster.

    Unions criticise their members being held to account shocker.
    That wasn't my point, my point is this isn't going to make schools any better
    And abolishing Ofsted would, right? Unspoofable.
    I didn't claim it would, I just made the point about this policy not fixing the problems the schools have. Good attempt at whataboutism though!
  • Options
    Blimey. What happened. I've not looked at Dem BF betting for a few days. Now Warren is 3rd behind Buttigieg.
  • Options

    https://news.sky.com/story/general-election-conservative-plan-for-no-notice-school-inspections-criticised-by-tecahing-unions-11873002

    The Tories just consistently miss the point on everything. Schools aren't bad because of inspections, they're bad because our education policy is an absolute disaster.

    Unions criticise their members being held to account shocker.
    This isn't going to help schools in difficulty, it is just pointless. They need intensive support over a long period, not more inspection.

    These problems are normally deep rooted, schools have often been in difficulty for years, and find it impossible to retain permanent staff as a result. How on earth is another bloody inspection going to help?
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    eggegg Posts: 1,749

    egg said:

    I suppose Bozo will say that he is too busy meeting voters, and then spend the day stood in front of his bus in a warehouse with a dozen HYUFD clones forming his claque.

    'Are you Tezzie in disguise?'

    BoZo was in North Devon this morning - failing to read his briefing notes and fluffing his lines as per usual.

    https://devonlive.com/news/devon-news/prime-minister-boris-johnson-confused-3588078

    Why was he visiting a defensive seat at this point in the campaign - MM tells us it is all going swimmingly in Devon and Cornwall for the Tories? Or is it an early victory lap?

    He then moved on to Plymouth, with Johnny Mercer claiming he had come to unveil a statue of Nancy Astor (elected 100 years ago today as the first woman MP to take her seat) - actually the honours was done by Theresa May, who looked very relaxed and well in contrast to her disastrous GE2017 visit to the city.

    https://plymouthherald.co.uk/whats-on/whats-on-news/boris-johnson-plymouth-statue-astor-3586303

    Fortunately Luke Pollard (elected in 2017) looks likely to retain Plymouth S & D for Labour (confirmed by YouGov MRP) - thanks to La Widdecombe standing for TBP and splitting the Leave vote.
    There are only three seats the Tories need to worry about in the south-west now: North Devon, North Cornwall and then St. Ives. The MegaPoll had them all staying Conservative. Obvious that Boris would be in at least one of them.
    Plymouth S&D could be a recount job. We'll have to see who the Brexit Party hurts most there. I'm still expecting the Brexit Party vote to collapse on the day. There's only one vote going to deliver Brexit....

    When you say worry, you mean despite megapoll you will lose some of them?
    I mean assume they are still in play - and fight incrediblly hard for every vote there. That is how you keep them.
    Nothing else in play but three for the libdems?
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    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    egg said:

    Brom said:

    This nurses thing seems like such an own goal.

    Why did they not go with 20,000 more nurses? It would have been true and they wouldn't have lost the confidence of the public

    Is it the £350m all over again? People dispute how many nurses but spread the word and make it stick in everyone’s minds that the Tories are adding tens of thousands more nurses. Deliberate? Who knows?
    I don't recall the £350m falling apart quite as quickly though? It seemed to go on a lot longer - and I don't really recall the media coming down on it that strongly if I'm honest. I remember that interview on the bus where they treated it like a joke.

    I think now people really do not trust this Government - and that is why Labour has (quite intelligently I might say) planted doubts about the NHS in the minds of people regarding a trade deal.

    To be honest, whether the Tories do or don't want to sell of the NHS, I think people are utterly deluded if they think we'll walk away from a USA trade deal because we value the NHS too much. We're going to be begging the USA for one - and they know that all too well. That's what those documents really showed.
    I agree. The denials sound genuine, but it’s the no trade deal with US without at least some compromise bit of this that trashes the denials.

    If generics are available anywhere can we not just buy them from where they are cheapest? Can someone enlighten me?
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,839
    kle4 said:

    Fun fact, that Wiltshire by election, though containing some affluent parts, also contains the most deprived part area of the unitary area.

    Sheringham is fairly Brexity, but just voted LD.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,058

    Mortimer said:

    https://news.sky.com/story/general-election-conservative-plan-for-no-notice-school-inspections-criticised-by-tecahing-unions-11873002

    The Tories just consistently miss the point on everything. Schools aren't bad because of inspections, they're bad because our education policy is an absolute disaster.

    Unions criticise their members being held to account shocker.
    That wasn't my point, my point is this isn't going to make schools any better
    And abolishing Ofsted would, right? Unspoofable.
    I didn't claim it would, I just made the point about this policy not fixing the problems the schools have. Good attempt at whataboutism though!
    Not really whataboutism, since you were saying the Tories miss the point on everything and its very relevant whether you think Labour do not miss the point on everything. Otherwise there's no point to you criticising them in the first place, unless you think there is a contrast with someone.
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    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    Fun fact, that Wiltshire by election, though containing some affluent parts, also contains the most deprived part area of the unitary area.

    Sheringham is fairly Brexity, but just voted LD.
    Must be an outlier!

    EDIT: oops, it's a by-election, not a poll :lol:
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    ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503

    Mortimer said:

    https://news.sky.com/story/general-election-conservative-plan-for-no-notice-school-inspections-criticised-by-tecahing-unions-11873002

    The Tories just consistently miss the point on everything. Schools aren't bad because of inspections, they're bad because our education policy is an absolute disaster.

    Unions criticise their members being held to account shocker.
    That wasn't my point, my point is this isn't going to make schools any better
    And abolishing Ofsted would, right? Unspoofable.
    I didn't claim it would, I just made the point about this policy not fixing the problems the schools have. Good attempt at whataboutism though!
    Ensuring teachers do their job properly and do what they’re paid to do = better schools.

    Schools should be run solely for the benefit of children. Not for the benefit of the Unions or teachers.
  • Options
    kle4 said:

    Mortimer said:

    https://news.sky.com/story/general-election-conservative-plan-for-no-notice-school-inspections-criticised-by-tecahing-unions-11873002

    The Tories just consistently miss the point on everything. Schools aren't bad because of inspections, they're bad because our education policy is an absolute disaster.

    Unions criticise their members being held to account shocker.
    That wasn't my point, my point is this isn't going to make schools any better
    And abolishing Ofsted would, right? Unspoofable.
    I didn't claim it would, I just made the point about this policy not fixing the problems the schools have. Good attempt at whataboutism though!
    Not really whataboutism, since you were saying the Tories miss the point on everything and its very relevant whether you think Labour do not miss the point on everything. Otherwise there's no point to you criticising them in the first place, unless you think there is a contrast with someone.
    I don't think abolishing Ofsted is going to increase standards in schools and neither will having random inspections. I think both polices are flawed.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,369
    edited November 2019


    Unfortunately despite the moderate veneer of Labour defence policy, the party is lead by Jeremy Corbyn and a small cabal of communists and terrorist sympathisers whose first instinct is to encourage enemies of the UK and blame the US for almost every problem in the world. Corbyn’s track record includes support for the IRA, Hamas, Hezbollah, and other anti-Western extremist groups. He has worked for Iranian state TV and, perhaps most alarmingly, could not bring himself to condemn Russia for the attempted murder of Sergei and Yulia Skripal on British soil.

    A tremendously clear and concise piece that, with beautifully understated eviscerations of Swinson ("patronising") and the Greens (who apparently would replace the MOD with a Ministry of Peace and wind the armed forces down to a "carbon neutral defence force" whose members would be allowed to disobey orders).

    An article that bashes ALL non-Tory views is hard to accept as well-informed, and so it proves. I don't know about the Greens, but it's untrue about Corbyn and Skripal - initially cautious, he was shown the evidence and said it was clearly a Russian action and sanctions should be imposed. Nor has he supported the IRA. And he's no more "worked for" Iranian state TV than I have - I've given them an interview, but I'll basically talk to anyone if they don't try to tell me what to say.
  • Options

    Mortimer said:

    https://news.sky.com/story/general-election-conservative-plan-for-no-notice-school-inspections-criticised-by-tecahing-unions-11873002

    The Tories just consistently miss the point on everything. Schools aren't bad because of inspections, they're bad because our education policy is an absolute disaster.

    Unions criticise their members being held to account shocker.
    That wasn't my point, my point is this isn't going to make schools any better
    And abolishing Ofsted would, right? Unspoofable.
    I didn't claim it would, I just made the point about this policy not fixing the problems the schools have. Good attempt at whataboutism though!
    Ensuring teachers do their job properly and do what they’re paid to do = better schools.

    Schools should be run solely for the benefit of children. Not for the benefit of the Unions or teachers.
    Schools aren't failing because we aren't having random inspections
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,839

    egg said:

    Brom said:

    This nurses thing seems like such an own goal.

    Why did they not go with 20,000 more nurses? It would have been true and they wouldn't have lost the confidence of the public

    Is it the £350m all over again? People dispute how many nurses but spread the word and make it stick in everyone’s minds that the Tories are adding tens of thousands more nurses. Deliberate? Who knows?
    I don't recall the £350m falling apart quite as quickly though? It seemed to go on a lot longer - and I don't really recall the media coming down on it that strongly if I'm honest. I remember that interview on the bus where they treated it like a joke.

    I think now people really do not trust this Government - and that is why Labour has (quite intelligently I might say) planted doubts about the NHS in the minds of people regarding a trade deal.

    To be honest, whether the Tories do or don't want to sell of the NHS, I think people are utterly deluded if they think we'll walk away from a USA trade deal because we value the NHS too much. We're going to be begging the USA for one - and they know that all too well. That's what those documents really showed.
    I agree. The denials sound genuine, but it’s the no trade deal with US without at least some compromise bit of this that trashes the denials.

    If generics are available anywhere can we not just buy them from where they are cheapest? Can someone enlighten me?
    We can at the moment. US Pharma wants to extend their patents, so that we have to buy the more expensive branded versions.
  • Options
    eggegg Posts: 1,749

    Blimey. What happened. I've not looked at Dem BF betting for a few days. Now Warren is 3rd behind Buttigieg.

    What cost Warren her chance of winning the nomination is her health policy. Since she detailed it she has gone into death spiral and is out of it now. I can put my finger on the mistake she made. There are problems for sure in US healthcare, but at same time a lot of people like the private schemes they have, it’s losing those people that cost her chance to be president.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,369
    Foxy said:



    There's a Labour board down the road from me.

    I have counted 8 boards; 7* LD in Harborough, 1 Lab in Leicester South. No blue ones to be seen.
    * 1 on a farm near Kibworth. Normally deep blue there...
    A fair number of Jeremy Hunt boards here, as well as a good sprinkling of LibDems. Labour contents itself with window posters - organising stakes is too much hassle unless one expects vampires.
  • Options
    camelcamel Posts: 815

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    This nurses thing seems like such an own goal.

    Why did they not go with 20,000 more nurses? It would have been true and they wouldn't have lost the confidence of the public

    The retention stuff is just crap. It is why we have fewer GPs than 5 years ago, despite promises of thousands more.
    https://twitter.com/nickbostock/status/1200002652534390784?s=19
    And why are they leaving? Because of extreme stress, budget pressures and pensions.
    A mixture of reasons, and also a cohort effect. There are a lot of GPs approaching 60 and retiring in the next five years.
    I see no reason to see retention to suddenly improve. Indeed the retention rate is worse than it was 5 years ago.
    Tory promises - not worth the paper they're not written on.
    @camel: Show the above stat to your family and see if they're still convinced about Boris's promises on nurses.
    I was commenting (in a long winded way) on whether the confusion is deliberate to keep the 'increase in nurses' in the news. I feel it is.
    Regarding my family, I stopped trying to 'educate' them on politics thirty years ago. Pointless exercise. It becomes a war between Labour and Conservative camps, a vicious war in which I am considered to be some kind of weird 'conchie' peacenik in that I refuse to vote for either.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,839
    egg said:

    Blimey. What happened. I've not looked at Dem BF betting for a few days. Now Warren is 3rd behind Buttigieg.

    What cost Warren her chance of winning the nomination is her health policy. Since she detailed it she has gone into death spiral and is out of it now. I can put my finger on the mistake she made. There are problems for sure in US healthcare, but at same time a lot of people like the private schemes they have, it’s losing those people that cost her chance to be president.
    Her problem is having policies. Mayor Pete avoids policy like the plague.
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 7,216
    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    Fun fact, that Wiltshire by election, though containing some affluent parts, also contains the most deprived part area of the unitary area.

    Sheringham is fairly Brexity, but just voted LD.
    16.9% swing to the Tories.
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    alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    Fun fact, that Wiltshire by election, though containing some affluent parts, also contains the most deprived part area of the unitary area.

    Sheringham is fairly Brexity, but just voted LD.
    Massive swing from Libdem to Tory I think? Voteuk suggests 429-187 reduced to 41votes
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    argyllrsargyllrs Posts: 155
    edited November 2019

    egg said:

    Brom said:

    This nurses thing seems like such an own goal.

    Why did they not go with 20,000 more nurses? It would have been true and they wouldn't have lost the confidence of the public

    Is it the £350m all over again? People dispute how many nurses but spread the word and make it stick in everyone’s minds that the Tories are adding tens of thousands more nurses. Deliberate? Who knows?
    I don't recall the £350m falling apart quite as quickly though? It seemed to go on a lot longer - and I don't really recall the media coming down on it that strongly if I'm honest. I remember that interview on the bus where they treated it like a joke.

    I think now people really do not trust this Government - and that is why Labour has (quite intelligently I might say) planted doubts about the NHS in the minds of people regarding a trade deal.

    To be honest, whether the Tories do or don't want to sell of the NHS, I think people are utterly deluded if they think we'll walk away from a USA trade deal because we value the NHS too much. We're going to be begging the USA for one - and they know that all too well. That's what those documents really showed.
    I agree. The denials sound genuine, but it’s the no trade deal with US without at least some compromise bit of this that trashes the denials.

    If generics are available anywhere can we not just buy them from where they are cheapest? Can someone enlighten me?
    Main cause of concern is if both US & UK decide it's in both their interests to increase patents - can't see it - NICE has a limited budget and will only buy if the price is right. However, a lot of party funding is from drug companies. Otherwise trade deal should make generic drugs cheaper if anything.
  • Options
    egg said:

    Blimey. What happened. I've not looked at Dem BF betting for a few days. Now Warren is 3rd behind Buttigieg.

    What cost Warren her chance of winning the nomination is her health policy. Since she detailed it she has gone into death spiral and is out of it now. I can put my finger on the mistake she made. There are problems for sure in US healthcare, but at same time a lot of people like the private schemes they have, it’s losing those people that cost her chance to be president.
    That might be the general view, but is that the view of Dem primary voters?
  • Options
    eggegg Posts: 1,749
    Foxy said:

    egg said:

    Brom said:

    This nurses thing seems like such an own goal.

    Why did they not go with 20,000 more nurses? It would have been true and they wouldn't have lost the confidence of the public

    Is it the £350m all over again? People dispute how many nurses but spread the word and make it stick in everyone’s minds that the Tories are adding tens of thousands more nurses. Deliberate? Who knows?
    I don't recall the £350m falling apart quite as quickly though? It seemed to go on a lot longer - and I don't really recall the media coming down on it that strongly if I'm honest. I remember that interview on the bus where they treated it like a joke.

    I think now people really do not trust this Government - and that is why Labour has (quite intelligently I might say) planted doubts about the NHS in the minds of people regarding a trade deal.

    To be honest, whether the Tories do or don't want to sell of the NHS, I think people are utterly deluded if they think we'll walk away from a USA trade deal because we value the NHS too much. We're going to be begging the USA for one - and they know that all too well. That's what those documents really showed.
    I agree. The denials sound genuine, but it’s the no trade deal with US without at least some compromise bit of this that trashes the denials.

    If generics are available anywhere can we not just buy them from where they are cheapest? Can someone enlighten me?
    We can at the moment. US Pharma wants to extend their patents, so that we have to buy the more expensive branded versions.
    Sort of like locked into a crazy PFI contract?
  • Options

    https://news.sky.com/story/general-election-conservative-plan-for-no-notice-school-inspections-criticised-by-tecahing-unions-11873002

    The Tories just consistently miss the point on everything. Schools aren't bad because of inspections, they're bad because our education policy is an absolute disaster.

    Unions criticise their members being held to account shocker.
    That wasn't my point, my point is this isn't going to make schools any better
    Why not?

    Plenty of private companies face no notice inspections because that's the point of an inspection - to see what an honest impression is. Every restaurant in the country gets the Environmental Health Agency visiting it with absolutely no notice someone simply walks through the front door and the inspection starts immediately.

    No notice inspections will be true and honest inspections.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292
    edited November 2019


    Unfortunately despite the moderate veneer of Labour defence policy, the party is lead by Jeremy Corbyn and a small cabal of communists and terrorist sympathisers whose first instinct is to encourage enemies of the UK and blame the US for almost every problem in the world. Corbyn’s track record includes support for the IRA, Hamas, Hezbollah, and other anti-Western extremist groups. He has worked for Iranian state TV and, perhaps most alarmingly, could not bring himself to condemn Russia for the attempted murder of Sergei and Yulia Skripal on British soil.

    A tremendously clear and concise piece that, with beautifully understated eviscerations of Swinson ("patronising") and the Greens (who apparently would replace the MOD with a Ministry of Peace and wind the armed forces down to a "carbon neutral defence force" whose members would be allowed to disobey orders).

    An article that bashes ALL non-Tory views is hard to accept as well-informed, and so it proves. I don't know about the Greens, but it's untrue about Corbyn and Skripal - initially cautious, he was shown the evidence and said it was clearly a Russian action and sanctions should be imposed. Nor has he supported the IRA. And he's no more "worked for" Iranian state TV than I have - I've given them an interview, but I'll basically talk to anyone if they don't try to tell me what to say.
    You are just flat out lying now about the Skirpal incident. He was shown evidence, the major world super powers said it was the Russians and he stood up in the HoC and did his yes, but no, but yes, but we should send our tests to Russia, open dialogue, BS.
    You own parties MPs couldn't believe he did and were outraged.
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    HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185
    I'm waiting for the next big ridiculous pledge that is almost impossible to actually acheive in any meaningful way.
    Stripey paint factories in high unemployment areas?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,058
    Foxy said:

    egg said:

    Blimey. What happened. I've not looked at Dem BF betting for a few days. Now Warren is 3rd behind Buttigieg.

    What cost Warren her chance of winning the nomination is her health policy. Since she detailed it she has gone into death spiral and is out of it now. I can put my finger on the mistake she made. There are problems for sure in US healthcare, but at same time a lot of people like the private schemes they have, it’s losing those people that cost her chance to be president.
    Her problem is having policies. Mayor Pete avoids policy like the plague.
    Well, it's meant to be all about how candidates make you feel thesedays, and who they are(or are not), so that's the way of the future I guess for worse or...no, just for worse.
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    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    Fun fact, that Wiltshire by election, though containing some affluent parts, also contains the most deprived part area of the unitary area.

    Sheringham is fairly Brexity, but just voted LD.
    Did they have the GE early there?
  • Options

    https://news.sky.com/story/general-election-conservative-plan-for-no-notice-school-inspections-criticised-by-tecahing-unions-11873002

    The Tories just consistently miss the point on everything. Schools aren't bad because of inspections, they're bad because our education policy is an absolute disaster.

    Unions criticise their members being held to account shocker.
    That wasn't my point, my point is this isn't going to make schools any better
    Why not?

    Plenty of private companies face no notice inspections because that's the point of an inspection - to see what an honest impression is. Every restaurant in the country gets the Environmental Health Agency visiting it with absolutely no notice someone simply walks through the front door and the inspection starts immediately.

    No notice inspections will be true and honest inspections.
    I'm not arguing against the principle of inspections, I am arguing against the idea of this being the magic bullet that will suddenly make our schools better. It won't, however much the Tories pretend otherwise.
  • Options

    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    Fun fact, that Wiltshire by election, though containing some affluent parts, also contains the most deprived part area of the unitary area.

    Sheringham is fairly Brexity, but just voted LD.
    Must be an outlier!

    EDIT: oops, it's a by-election, not a poll :lol:
    Outlier's can very much be deleted even if it's a real result. Not entirely sure why outliers are allowed to be deleted in stats.
  • Options
    HaroldO said:

    I'm waiting for the next big ridiculous pledge that is almost impossible to actually acheive in any meaningful way.
    Stripey paint factories in high unemployment areas?
    Labour should be able to burn through another £100billion by polling day without breaking into a sweat.
  • Options
    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312


    Unfortunately despite the moderate veneer of Labour defence policy, the party is lead by Jeremy Corbyn and a small cabal of communists and terrorist sympathisers whose first instinct is to encourage enemies of the UK and blame the US for almost every problem in the world. Corbyn’s track record includes support for the IRA, Hamas, Hezbollah, and other anti-Western extremist groups. He has worked for Iranian state TV and, perhaps most alarmingly, could not bring himself to condemn Russia for the attempted murder of Sergei and Yulia Skripal on British soil.

    A tremendously clear and concise piece that, with beautifully understated eviscerations of Swinson ("patronising") and the Greens (who apparently would replace the MOD with a Ministry of Peace and wind the armed forces down to a "carbon neutral defence force" whose members would be allowed to disobey orders).

    An article that bashes ALL non-Tory views is hard to accept as well-informed, and so it proves. I don't know about the Greens, but it's untrue about Corbyn and Skripal - initially cautious, he was shown the evidence and said it was clearly a Russian action and sanctions should be imposed. Nor has he supported the IRA. And he's no more "worked for" Iranian state TV than I have - I've given them an interview, but I'll basically talk to anyone if they don't try to tell me what to say.
    Anyone? How much for?
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 7,216
    The north norfolk result supports the idea that the LDs will lose the seat, enormous swing to the Tories even though they just fell short of taking a very safe LD seat on the council
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    sladeslade Posts: 1,940
    alex_ said:

    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    Fun fact, that Wiltshire by election, though containing some affluent parts, also contains the most deprived part area of the unitary area.

    Sheringham is fairly Brexity, but just voted LD.
    Massive swing from Libdem to Tory I think? Voteuk suggests 429-187 reduced to 41votes
    The former Lib Dem councillor had a big personal vote. The Con candidate was a former councillor.
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    eggegg Posts: 1,749

    egg said:

    Blimey. What happened. I've not looked at Dem BF betting for a few days. Now Warren is 3rd behind Buttigieg.

    What cost Warren her chance of winning the nomination is her health policy. Since she detailed it she has gone into death spiral and is out of it now. I can put my finger on the mistake she made. There are problems for sure in US healthcare, but at same time a lot of people like the private schemes they have, it’s losing those people that cost her chance to be president.
    That might be the general view, but is that the view of Dem primary voters?
    It’s our credible answer to your question until a better one comes along, possibly from RCS. But I think yes, they may be Dems but they may still prefer their current plan than what’s proposed.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,148
    edited November 2019
    egg said:

    egg said:

    I suppose Bozo will say that he is too busy meeting voters, and then spend the day stood in front of his bus in a warehouse with a dozen HYUFD clones forming his claque.

    'Are you Tezzie in disguise?'

    BoZo was in North Devon this morning - failing to read his briefing notes and fluffing his lines as per usual.

    https://devonlive.com/news/devon-news/prime-minister-boris-johnson-confused-3588078

    Why was he visiting a defensive seat at this point in the campaign - MM tells us it is all going swimmingly in Devon and Cornwall for the Tories? Or is it an early victory lap?

    He then moved on to Plymouth, with Johnny Mercer claiming he had come to unveil a statue of Nancy Astor (elected 100 years ago today as the first woman MP to take her seat) - actually the honours was done by Theresa May, who looked very relaxed and well in contrast to her disastrous GE2017 visit to the city.

    https://plymouthherald.co.uk/whats-on/whats-on-news/boris-johnson-plymouth-statue-astor-3586303

    Fortunately Luke Pollard (elected in 2017) looks likely to retain Plymouth S & D for Labour (confirmed by YouGov MRP) - thanks to La Widdecombe standing for TBP and splitting the Leave vote.
    There are only three seats the Tories need to worry about in the south-west now: North Devon, North Cornwall and then St. Ives. The MegaPoll had them all staying Conservative. Obvious that Boris would be in at least one of them.
    Plymouth S&D could be a recount job. We'll have to see who the Brexit Party hurts most there. I'm still expecting the Brexit Party vote to collapse on the day. There's only one vote going to deliver Brexit....

    When you say worry, you mean despite megapoll you will lose some of them?
    I mean assume they are still in play - and fight incrediblly hard for every vote there. That is how you keep them.
    Nothing else in play but three for the libdems?
    The LibDems going for Revoke went down very badly in the Brexity SW. As we all assumed it would when it was announced. It has been a double whammy though with Jo Swinson, who for some reason I can't fathom, really gets up many voters' noses. That has been the surprise element of the campaign.
    If you count Cheltenhm as the SW (I don't) then that is very much in play. There's some fun and games in Bristol, but I don't know the subtleties of its politics.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,148
    HaroldO said:

    I'm waiting for the next big ridiculous pledge that is almost impossible to actually acheive in any meaningful way.
    Stripey paint factories in high unemployment areas?
    Tartan paint factories in Scotland....
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    HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185

    HaroldO said:

    I'm waiting for the next big ridiculous pledge that is almost impossible to actually acheive in any meaningful way.
    Stripey paint factories in high unemployment areas?
    Labour should be able to burn through another £100billion by polling day without breaking into a sweat.
    Brexit Bonus v MMT. It's like the worst fight you've ever seen.
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    Do find it funny that people attack Labour's spending yet are happy to walk over the cliff with Johnson on a No Deal Brexit which the IFS concludes will be a hell of a lot worse
  • Options

    Do find it funny that people attack Labour's spending yet are happy to walk over the cliff with Johnson on a No Deal Brexit which the IFS concludes will be a hell of a lot worse

    Not happy with either myself.
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    Do find it funny that people attack Labour's spending yet are happy to walk over the cliff with Johnson on a No Deal Brexit which the IFS concludes will be a hell of a lot worse

    Not happy with either myself.
    And that's a fairly respectable position to have.

    My view is this: Tory majority leads to a damaging Brexit, the only chance of Remain is with Labour in some form, it's really that simple.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,839
    nunu2 said:
    I think Lib Dems will hold on there.
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    camelcamel Posts: 815

    Do find it funny that people attack Labour's spending yet are happy to walk over the cliff with Johnson on a No Deal Brexit which the IFS concludes will be a hell of a lot worse

    To be fair, the tories haven't put No Deal Brexit in their manifesto as a firm commitment.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,901
    Just seen QT

    Brutal for Tories on NHS nurses.

    Questioner If I have 3 apples and the Tories give me 2 more apples do I have 8 apples.

    Lewis eventually admits that it's 32k more and we won't be losing 18k.

    So for any normal person that's 32k more. Much hilarity when Lewis tried to spin it as 50k
  • Options

    Do find it funny that people attack Labour's spending yet are happy to walk over the cliff with Johnson on a No Deal Brexit which the IFS concludes will be a hell of a lot worse

    A - it won't be a No Deal Brexit. He got a deal remember? And the remainer parliament didn't like it so he had to call an election.

    B - It won't be worse. In actual fact we'll be 350 M better off per week.
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    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Foxy said:

    egg said:

    Brom said:

    This nurses thing seems like such an own goal.

    Why did they not go with 20,000 more nurses? It would have been true and they wouldn't have lost the confidence of the public

    Is it the £350m all over again? People dispute how many nurses but spread the word and make it stick in everyone’s minds that the Tories are adding tens of thousands more nurses. Deliberate? Who knows?
    I don't recall the £350m falling apart quite as quickly though? It seemed to go on a lot longer - and I don't really recall the media coming down on it that strongly if I'm honest. I remember that interview on the bus where they treated it like a joke.

    I think now people really do not trust this Government - and that is why Labour has (quite intelligently I might say) planted doubts about the NHS in the minds of people regarding a trade deal.

    To be honest, whether the Tories do or don't want to sell of the NHS, I think people are utterly deluded if they think we'll walk away from a USA trade deal because we value the NHS too much. We're going to be begging the USA for one - and they know that all too well. That's what those documents really showed.
    I agree. The denials sound genuine, but it’s the no trade deal with US without at least some compromise bit of this that trashes the denials.

    If generics are available anywhere can we not just buy them from where they are cheapest? Can someone enlighten me?
    We can at the moment. US Pharma wants to extend their patents, so that we have to buy the more expensive branded versions.
    Sorry to be so stupid but how can anyone force us to commit to buying something we don't want to buy? I have 11 different prescription items and it's difficult to recognise what the actual medicine is because they come in different wrappers with different names,
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    camel said:

    Do find it funny that people attack Labour's spending yet are happy to walk over the cliff with Johnson on a No Deal Brexit which the IFS concludes will be a hell of a lot worse

    To be fair, the tories haven't put No Deal Brexit in their manifesto as a firm commitment.
    That is true - but it's a possibility. I do not think there's any risk of that with Labour.

    But even if it's not a No Deal, the Treasury estimates stated that Johnson's favoured deal would still do great damage to the economy. I do not know if the IFS did a study on that deal, or whether it's only done No Deal - but either way, it's not looking good.
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    Do find it funny that people attack Labour's spending yet are happy to walk over the cliff with Johnson on a No Deal Brexit which the IFS concludes will be a hell of a lot worse

    A - it won't be a No Deal Brexit. He got a deal remember? And the remainer parliament didn't like it so he had to call an election.

    B - It won't be worse. In actual fact we'll be 350 M better off per week.
    I hope this is sarcasm
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,839

    Just seen QT

    Brutal for Tories on NHS nurses.

    Questioner If I have 3 apples and the Tories give me 2 more apples do I have 8 apples.

    Lewis eventually admits that it's 32k more and we won't be losing 18k.

    So for any normal person that's 32k more. Much hilarity when Lewis tried to spin it as 50k

    Tories = Liars has a lot of cut through. People may not like Corbyn, but they do believe him.
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    QT seemed to rebuff the anti-Semitism stuff and go more on Islamophobia. I know QT isn't at all representative but is it cutting through?
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 7,216
    Foxy said:

    nunu2 said:
    I think Lib Dems will hold on there.
    I dont think it will even be close. Easy Con gain
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    swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,435
    egg said:

    egg said:

    I suppose Bozo will say that he is too busy meeting voters, and then spend the day stood in front of his bus in a warehouse with a dozen HYUFD clones forming his claque.

    'Are you Tezzie in disguise?'

    BoZo was in North Devon this morning - failing to read his briefing notes and fluffing his lines as per usual.

    https://devonlive.com/news/devon-news/prime-minister-boris-johnson-confused-3588078

    Why was he visiting a defensive seat at this point in the campaign - MM tells us it is all going swimmingly in Devon and Cornwall for the Tories? Or is it an early victory lap?

    He then moved on to Plymouth, with Johnny Mercer claiming he had come to unveil a statue of Nancy Astor (elected 100 years ago today as the first woman MP to take her seat) - actually the honours was done by Theresa May, who looked very relaxed and well in contrast to her disastrous GE2017 visit to the city.

    https://plymouthherald.co.uk/whats-on/whats-on-news/boris-johnson-plymouth-statue-astor-3586303

    Fortunately Luke Pollard (elected in 2017) looks likely to retain Plymouth S & D for Labour (confirmed by YouGov MRP) - thanks to La Widdecombe standing for TBP and splitting the Leave vote.
    There are only three seats the Tories need to worry about in the south-west now: North Devon, North Cornwall and then St. Ives. The MegaPoll had them all staying Conservative. Obvious that Boris would be in at least one of them.
    Plymouth S&D could be a recount job. We'll have to see who the Brexit Party hurts most there. I'm still expecting the Brexit Party vote to collapse on the day. There's only one vote going to deliver Brexit....

    When you say worry, you mean despite megapoll you will lose some of them?
    I mean assume they are still in play - and fight incrediblly hard for every vote there. That is how you keep them.
    Nothing else in play but three for the libdems?
    What about Wells where Tessa Munt challenges James Heappey.....lots of labour votes to squeeze
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,148
    Foxy said:

    nunu2 said:
    I think Lib Dems will hold on there.
    Lamb's majority in 2017 was only 3,500. He had a big personal vote. And we've just seen a 16% swing away from the LibDems in the heart of that seat.

    Brave thinking....
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    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    we'll have no truck with all that affordability nonsense - we're proud to be profligate
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    Foxy said:

    Just seen QT

    Brutal for Tories on NHS nurses.

    Questioner If I have 3 apples and the Tories give me 2 more apples do I have 8 apples.

    Lewis eventually admits that it's 32k more and we won't be losing 18k.

    So for any normal person that's 32k more. Much hilarity when Lewis tried to spin it as 50k

    Tories = Liars has a lot of cut through. People may not like Corbyn, but they do believe him.
    I think they believe him slightly more than Johnson - and that's all he needs.

    We do see this in the leadership rankings, as Johnson falls Corbyn seems to climb
  • Options

    Do find it funny that people attack Labour's spending yet are happy to walk over the cliff with Johnson on a No Deal Brexit which the IFS concludes will be a hell of a lot worse

    A - it won't be a No Deal Brexit. He got a deal remember? And the remainer parliament didn't like it so he had to call an election.

    B - It won't be worse. In actual fact we'll be 350 M better off per week.
    I hope this is sarcasm
    Issa leaver - I want to vote tory but the only way to beat the SNP is by voting for the mad labour manifesto. (Or I might vote Lib Dem to help them save their deposit - Legalise Weed! Yeah!). I'm having a good campaign.
  • Options

    Do find it funny that people attack Labour's spending yet are happy to walk over the cliff with Johnson on a No Deal Brexit which the IFS concludes will be a hell of a lot worse

    A - it won't be a No Deal Brexit. He got a deal remember? And the remainer parliament didn't like it so he had to call an election.

    B - It won't be worse. In actual fact we'll be 350 M better off per week.
    I hope this is sarcasm
    Issa leaver - I want to vote tory but the only way to beat the SNP is by voting for the mad labour manifesto. (Or I might vote Lib Dem to help them save their deposit - Legalise Weed! Yeah!). I'm having a good campaign.
    If you want to swap a vote I'm voting Lib Dem?
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    https://news.sky.com/story/general-election-conservative-plan-for-no-notice-school-inspections-criticised-by-tecahing-unions-11873002

    The Tories just consistently miss the point on everything. Schools aren't bad because of inspections, they're bad because our education policy is an absolute disaster.

    Unions criticise their members being held to account shocker.
    That wasn't my point, my point is this isn't going to make schools any better
    Why not?

    Plenty of private companies face no notice inspections because that's the point of an inspection - to see what an honest impression is. Every restaurant in the country gets the Environmental Health Agency visiting it with absolutely no notice someone simply walks through the front door and the inspection starts immediately.

    No notice inspections will be true and honest inspections.
    I'm not arguing against the principle of inspections, I am arguing against the idea of this being the magic bullet that will suddenly make our schools better. It won't, however much the Tories pretend otherwise.
    It is not a magic bullet, there is no magic bullet. But clear and honest inspections help identify and address issues that need improving - and where things are going great and you can just leave things be.
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    It seems to me that this Tory majority is based on very small swings in seats, that can easily go the other way. Presumably that's why a majority falls away so quickly?
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    Do find it funny that people attack Labour's spending yet are happy to walk over the cliff with Johnson on a No Deal Brexit which the IFS concludes will be a hell of a lot worse

    A - it won't be a No Deal Brexit. He got a deal remember? And the remainer parliament didn't like it so he had to call an election.

    B - It won't be worse. In actual fact we'll be 350 M better off per week.
    I hope this is sarcasm
    Issa leaver - I want to vote tory but the only way to beat the SNP is by voting for the mad labour manifesto. (Or I might vote Lib Dem to help them save their deposit - Legalise Weed! Yeah!). I'm having a good campaign.
    If you want to swap a vote I'm voting Lib Dem?
    Who you trying to beat????
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 7,216

    Foxy said:

    Just seen QT

    Brutal for Tories on NHS nurses.

    Questioner If I have 3 apples and the Tories give me 2 more apples do I have 8 apples.

    Lewis eventually admits that it's 32k more and we won't be losing 18k.

    So for any normal person that's 32k more. Much hilarity when Lewis tried to spin it as 50k

    Tories = Liars has a lot of cut through. People may not like Corbyn, but they do believe him.
    I think they believe him slightly more than Johnson - and that's all he needs.

    We do see this in the leadership rankings, as Johnson falls Corbyn seems to climb
    Corbyn trails BJ in trustworthiness in the polling
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    Foxy said:

    Just seen QT

    Brutal for Tories on NHS nurses.

    Questioner If I have 3 apples and the Tories give me 2 more apples do I have 8 apples.

    Lewis eventually admits that it's 32k more and we won't be losing 18k.

    So for any normal person that's 32k more. Much hilarity when Lewis tried to spin it as 50k

    Tories = Liars has a lot of cut through. People may not like Corbyn, but they do believe him.
    I think they believe him slightly more than Johnson - and that's all he needs.

    We do see this in the leadership rankings, as Johnson falls Corbyn seems to climb
    Corbyn trails BJ in trustworthiness in the polling
    I think it depends on the poll doesn't it - I've seen him ahead in others, behind in some. It's not much of a gap from what I've seen, a few points in it. But my point is that Corbyn seems to be going up, Johnson seems to be going down
  • Options

    Do find it funny that people attack Labour's spending yet are happy to walk over the cliff with Johnson on a No Deal Brexit which the IFS concludes will be a hell of a lot worse

    A - it won't be a No Deal Brexit. He got a deal remember? And the remainer parliament didn't like it so he had to call an election.

    B - It won't be worse. In actual fact we'll be 350 M better off per week.
    I hope this is sarcasm
    Issa leaver - I want to vote tory but the only way to beat the SNP is by voting for the mad labour manifesto. (Or I might vote Lib Dem to help them save their deposit - Legalise Weed! Yeah!). I'm having a good campaign.
    If you want to swap a vote I'm voting Lib Dem?
    Who you trying to beat????
    Tory MP with 30,000 majority, it's not going to happen but would make my vote feel less wasted
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 7,216

    It seems to me that this Tory majority is based on very small swings in seats, that can easily go the other way. Presumably that's why a majority falls away so quickly?

    Obviously. On UNS there will always be a tranche of hyper marginals around whatever position you start. Equally a 2% swing to Tory from here = landslide
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited November 2019

    Just seen QT

    Brutal for Tories on NHS nurses.

    Questioner If I have 3 apples and the Tories give me 2 more apples do I have 8 apples.

    Lewis eventually admits that it's 32k more and we won't be losing 18k.

    So for any normal person that's 32k more. Much hilarity when Lewis tried to spin it as 50k

    Its 50k more if you spend more than 30 seconds thinking about it. But fine if you want to say 32k more than's still more.

    There would have been 280k at the end of next Parliament. Under these plans there will be 330k instead. You tell me what the difference is between 280k and 330k.
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Foxy said:

    Just seen QT

    Brutal for Tories on NHS nurses.

    Questioner If I have 3 apples and the Tories give me 2 more apples do I have 8 apples.

    Lewis eventually admits that it's 32k more and we won't be losing 18k.

    So for any normal person that's 32k more. Much hilarity when Lewis tried to spin it as 50k

    Tories = Liars has a lot of cut through. People may not like Corbyn, but they do believe him.
    No, they really do not.

  • Options

    Foxy said:

    nunu2 said:
    I think Lib Dems will hold on there.
    Lamb's majority in 2017 was only 3,500. He had a big personal vote. And we've just seen a 16% swing away from the LibDems in the heart of that seat.

    Brave thinking....
    North Norfolk also voted 58.4% to Leave.

    The only thing really going in the LDs favour is the absence of a Green candidate.
  • Options

    Do find it funny that people attack Labour's spending yet are happy to walk over the cliff with Johnson on a No Deal Brexit which the IFS concludes will be a hell of a lot worse

    A - it won't be a No Deal Brexit. He got a deal remember? And the remainer parliament didn't like it so he had to call an election.

    B - It won't be worse. In actual fact we'll be 350 M better off per week.
    I hope this is sarcasm
    Issa leaver - I want to vote tory but the only way to beat the SNP is by voting for the mad labour manifesto. (Or I might vote Lib Dem to help them save their deposit - Legalise Weed! Yeah!). I'm having a good campaign.
    If you want to swap a vote I'm voting Lib Dem?
    Who you trying to beat????
    Tory MP with 30,000 majority, it's not going to happen but would make my vote feel less wasted
    Well as I stated I'm actually trying to support Tories - I'm not sure us shifting losing votes about is going to help the tactical voting cause anyway. Thanks for the offer though.
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    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    egg said:

    egg said:

    I suppose Bozo will say that he is too busy meeting voters, and then spend the day stood in front of his bus in a warehouse with a dozen HYUFD clones forming his claque.

    'Are you Tezzie in disguise?'


    https://devonlive.com/news/devon-news/prime-minister-boris-johnson-confused-3588078

    Why was he visiting a defensive seat at this point in the campaign - MM tells us it is all going swimmingly in Devon and Cornwall for the Tories? Or is it an early victory lap?

    He then moved on to Plymouth, with Johnny Mercer claiming he had come to unveil a statue of Nancy Astor (elected 100 years ago today as the first woman MP to take her seat) - actually the honours was done by Theresa May, who looked very relaxed and well in contrast to her disastrous GE2017 visit to the city.

    https://plymouthherald.co.uk/whats-on/whats-on-news/boris-johnson-plymouth-statue-astor-3586303

    Fortunately Luke Pollard (elected in 2017) looks likely to retain Plymouth S & D for Labour (confirmed by YouGov MRP) - thanks to La Widdecombe standing for TBP and splitting the Leave vote.
    There are only three seats the Tories need to worry about in the south-west now: North Devon, North Cornwall and then St. Ives. The MegaPoll had them all staying Conservative. Obvious that Boris would be in at least one of them.
    Plymouth S&D could be a recount job. We'll have to see who the Brexit Party hurts most there. I'm still expecting the Brexit Party vote to collapse on the day. There's only one vote going to deliver Brexit....

    When you say worry, you mean despite megapoll you will lose some of them?
    I mean assume they are still in play - and fight incrediblly hard for every vote there. That is how you keep them.
    Nothing else in play but three for the libdems?
    The LibDems going for Revoke went down very badly in the Brexity SW. As we all assumed it would when it was announced. It has been a double whammy though with Jo Swinson, who for some reason I can't fathom, really gets up many voters' noses. That has been the surprise element of the campaign.
    If you count Cheltenhm as the SW (I don't) then that is very much in play. There's some fun and games in Bristol, but I don't know the subtleties of its politics.
    You really can't understand why Swansong gets up so many noses?
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 7,216

    Foxy said:

    Just seen QT

    Brutal for Tories on NHS nurses.

    Questioner If I have 3 apples and the Tories give me 2 more apples do I have 8 apples.

    Lewis eventually admits that it's 32k more and we won't be losing 18k.

    So for any normal person that's 32k more. Much hilarity when Lewis tried to spin it as 50k

    Tories = Liars has a lot of cut through. People may not like Corbyn, but they do believe him.
    I think they believe him slightly more than Johnson - and that's all he needs.

    We do see this in the leadership rankings, as Johnson falls Corbyn seems to climb
    Corbyn trails BJ in trustworthiness in the polling
    I think it depends on the poll doesn't it - I've seen him ahead in others, behind in some. It's not much of a gap from what I've seen, a few points in it. But my point is that Corbyn seems to be going up, Johnson seems to be going down
    Movement seems very marginal though (the great Swinson collapse aside), it's a little bit down for BJ a little up for JC which supports a slight poll narrowing . And unless and until more sub 10 lead polls appear it is only a slight narrowing
  • Options
    camelcamel Posts: 815

    Just seen QT

    Brutal for Tories on NHS nurses.

    Questioner If I have 3 apples and the Tories give me 2 more apples do I have 8 apples.

    Lewis eventually admits that it's 32k more and we won't be losing 18k.

    So for any normal person that's 32k more. Much hilarity when Lewis tried to spin it as 50k

    Its 50k more if you spend more than 30 seconds thinking about it. But fine if you want to say 32k more than's still more.

    There would have been 280k at the end of next Parliament. Under these plans there will be 330k instead. You tell me what the difference is between 280k and 330k.
    You are Matt Hancock and I claim my.....
  • Options

    Do find it funny that people attack Labour's spending yet are happy to walk over the cliff with Johnson on a No Deal Brexit which the IFS concludes will be a hell of a lot worse

    A - it won't be a No Deal Brexit. He got a deal remember? And the remainer parliament didn't like it so he had to call an election.

    B - It won't be worse. In actual fact we'll be 350 M better off per week.
    I hope this is sarcasm
    Issa leaver - I want to vote tory but the only way to beat the SNP is by voting for the mad labour manifesto. (Or I might vote Lib Dem to help them save their deposit - Legalise Weed! Yeah!). I'm having a good campaign.
    If you want to swap a vote I'm voting Lib Dem?
    Who you trying to beat????
    Tory MP with 30,000 majority, it's not going to happen but would make my vote feel less wasted
    Well as I stated I'm actually trying to support Tories - I'm not sure us shifting losing votes about is going to help the tactical voting cause anyway. Thanks for the offer though.
    Oh I see, I thought you wanted the Tories out, otherwise I wouldn't have offered. No worries
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,839

    Just seen QT

    Brutal for Tories on NHS nurses.

    Questioner If I have 3 apples and the Tories give me 2 more apples do I have 8 apples.

    Lewis eventually admits that it's 32k more and we won't be losing 18k.

    So for any normal person that's 32k more. Much hilarity when Lewis tried to spin it as 50k

    Its 50k more if you spend more than 30 seconds thinking about it. But fine if you want to say 32k more than's still more.

    There would have been 280k at the end of next Parliament. Under these plans there will be 330k instead. You tell me what the difference is between 280k and 330k.
    Why should nurse retention suddenly dramatically improve? It has been flat for a decade, as vacancies grow.
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    My guess is that the Tories will take a view by the weekend as to whether being frit or being barbecued by Neil is the lesser of two evils. If the frit vibe snowballs in the press by Saturday, he'll have to do it. (And I suspect Neil making himself available at the time BJ has already said he'll do Marr on Sunday morning is the way out of it).

    Next guess, the complaint to Ofcom about C4 will get nowhere. Two reasons: 1. the general direction since that bit of the RPA was repealed is that the refusal of an invitee to attend can't veto the event. Sure, the law only covered constituency reports, but it was binned because candidates just never got on TV. 2. The Ofcom code and guidance give broadcasters huge leeway in how they achieve due impartiality. A couple of ten minute slots with leading Tories on C4 News (same time slot, same production team, same anchors) over the next week will sort it. Read their finding in ITV v Vote Leave if you're in doubt. (Apart from all this, here's the crucial bit: they invited him to a *leaders'* debate with good notice; he chose not to take part).
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    eggegg Posts: 1,749

    egg said:

    egg said:

    I suppose Bozo will say that he is too busy meeting voters, and then spend the day stood in front of his bus in a warehouse with a dozen HYUFD clones forming his claque.

    'Are you Tezzie in disguise?'

    BoZo was in North Devon this morning - failing to read his briefing notes and fluffing his lines as per usual.

    https://devonlive.com/news/devon-news/prime-minister-boris-johnson-confused-3588078

    Why was he visiting a defensive seat at this point in the campaign - MM tells us it is all going swimmingly in Devon and Cornwall for the Tories? Or is it an early victory lap?

    He then moved on to Plymouth

    https://plymouthherald.co.uk/whats-on/whats-on-news/boris-johnson-plymouth-statue-astor-3586303
    There are only three seats the Tories need to worry about in the south-west now: North Devon, North Cornwall and then St. Ives. The MegaPoll had them all staying Conservative.

    Nothing else in play but three for the libdems?
    The LibDems going for Revoke went down very badly in the Brexity SW. As we all assumed it would when it was announced. It has been a double whammy though with Jo Swinson, who for some reason I can't fathom, really gets up many voters' noses. That has been the surprise element of the campaign.
    If you count Cheltenhm as the SW (I don't) then that is very much in play. There's some fun and games in Bristol, but I don't know the subtleties of its politics.
    I can speak for Bristol. I would be surprised if Labour lost W, E, or S. it’s a very remain metropolitan area the sort that will provide labour’s 180 to 220 seats in this election. I was surprised NW fell last time to labour, if Boris is getting a majority NW will be part of it. I think Avonmouth is in NW, and local media vox popped a young lady coming out a food bank yesterday who was voting for Boris!!!
    Labour won’t pick up anything new around here like their target Filton. They will likely lose Stroud.
    In a betting sense Tories retain Cheltenham, but losing Wells might be good bets.
    A surprise in Swindon May not be a surprise if brexit blamed for factory closure?
    The world changes around us. There’s an effect outside SE London as migrations Out the city make the surrounds more labour? Same thing probably happening everywhere. Meanwhile the run down parts of inner cities transform into places that return green councillors.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,920
    edited November 2019
    Norman Lamb is on record as saying he didn't agree with the revoke policy from Jo Swinson's Liberal Democrats so of they do lose North Norfolk they'll only have themselves to blame...
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    Foxy said:

    Just seen QT

    Brutal for Tories on NHS nurses.

    Questioner If I have 3 apples and the Tories give me 2 more apples do I have 8 apples.

    Lewis eventually admits that it's 32k more and we won't be losing 18k.

    So for any normal person that's 32k more. Much hilarity when Lewis tried to spin it as 50k

    Tories = Liars has a lot of cut through. People may not like Corbyn, but they do believe him.
    Having a laugh?
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    camelcamel Posts: 815
    @CorrectHorseBattery

    Parents take Ofsted reports into account when choosing schools and schools advertis them heavily to attract pupils. A bit like taking into account the tripadvisor stars before choosing a restaurant. Ratings are more important to the man on the clapham omnibus than ever and colour ALL decisions massively. I can think of no parent who would think scrapping Ofsted is a good idea, regardless of the pedagogical arguments.
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    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    Do find it funny that people attack Labour's spending yet are happy to walk over the cliff with Johnson on a No Deal Brexit which the IFS concludes will be a hell of a lot worse

    Boris agreed a deal. Whatever you think of it, it ain't No Deal.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,148


    You really can't understand why Swansong gets up so many noses?

    But I thought she would be given a fair hearing by the people she was trying to win over.....

    (and Swansong was my creation, I'll have you know!)
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 7,216
    edited November 2019
    Green gain in oxon with a massive vote increase. Tories second but vote up 7%, labour the only vote losers on the night in 4th

    Green gain from independent
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,839

    Foxy said:

    Just seen QT

    Brutal for Tories on NHS nurses.

    Questioner If I have 3 apples and the Tories give me 2 more apples do I have 8 apples.

    Lewis eventually admits that it's 32k more and we won't be losing 18k.

    So for any normal person that's 32k more. Much hilarity when Lewis tried to spin it as 50k

    Tories = Liars has a lot of cut through. People may not like Corbyn, but they do believe him.
    I think they believe him slightly more than Johnson - and that's all he needs.

    We do see this in the leadership rankings, as Johnson falls Corbyn seems to climb
    Corbyn trails BJ in trustworthiness in the polling
    I think it depends on the poll doesn't it - I've seen him ahead in others, behind in some. It's not much of a gap from what I've seen, a few points in it. But my point is that Corbyn seems to be going up, Johnson seems to be going down
    The more people see of BoZo the more people realise what a fraud he is. That is why the Tories have him in primary schools rather than press interviews.
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    edited November 2019

    egg said:

    egg said:

    I suppose Bozo will say that he is too busy meeting voters, and then spend the day stood in front of his bus in a warehouse with a dozen HYUFD clones forming his claque.

    'Are you Tezzie in disguise?'

    BoZo was in North Devon this morning - failing to read his briefing notes and fluffing his lines as per usual.

    https://devonlive.com/news/devon-news/prime-minister-boris-johnson-confused-3588078

    Why was he visiting a defensive seat at this point in the campaign - MM tells us it is all going swimmingly in Devon and Cornwall for the Tories? Or is it an early victory lap?

    He then moved on to Plymouth, with Johnny Mercer claiming he had come to unveil a statue of Nancy Astor (elected 100 years ago today as the first woman MP to take her seat) - actually the honours was done by Theresa May, who looked very relaxed and well in contrast to her disastrous GE2017 visit to the city.

    https://plymouthherald.co.uk/whats-on/whats-on-news/boris-johnson-plymouth-statue-astor-3586303

    Fortunately Luke Pollard (elected in 2017) looks likely to retain Plymouth S & D for Labour (confirmed by YouGov MRP) - thanks to La Widdecombe standing for TBP and splitting the Leave vote.
    There are only three seats the Tories need to worry about in the south-west now: SNIP

    When you say worry, you mean despite megapoll you will lose some of them?
    I mean assume they are still in play - and fight incrediblly hard for every vote there. That is how you keep them.
    Nothing else in play but three for the libdems?
    The LibDems going for Revoke went down very badly in the Brexity SW. As we all assumed it would when it was announced. It has been a double whammy though with Jo Swinson, who for some reason I can't fathom, really gets up many voters' noses. That has been the surprise element of the campaign.
    If you count Cheltenhm as the SW (I don't) then that is very much in play. There's some fun and games in Bristol, but I don't know the subtleties of its politics.
    My wife really likes the Lib Dems, thinks the sun shines out of our local candidates backside (tbh he is a great public servant).

    She really dislikes Swinson though.
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    Meanwhile, lolz in the red media outrider camp, as Owen Jones calls on journos to do their job properly....

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1200187270675992578

    ....while forgetting the Great Leader's wish that they, er, don't :smiley:

    https://www.indy100.com/video/politics/jeremy-corbyn-i-ask-our-media,-as-good-journalists,-to-just-report-what-we-say-Jz4LHWIp
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    Foxy said:

    Just seen QT

    Brutal for Tories on NHS nurses.

    Questioner If I have 3 apples and the Tories give me 2 more apples do I have 8 apples.

    Lewis eventually admits that it's 32k more and we won't be losing 18k.

    So for any normal person that's 32k more. Much hilarity when Lewis tried to spin it as 50k

    Tories = Liars has a lot of cut through. People may not like Corbyn, but they do believe him.
    Having a laugh?
    Just showing his prejudices - nothing new
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    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Foxy said:

    Just seen QT

    Brutal for Tories on NHS nurses.

    Questioner If I have 3 apples and the Tories give me 2 more apples do I have 8 apples.

    Lewis eventually admits that it's 32k more and we won't be losing 18k.

    So for any normal person that's 32k more. Much hilarity when Lewis tried to spin it as 50k

    Tories = Liars has a lot of cut through. People may not like Corbyn, but they do believe him.
    People believe Corbyn???? You're not even having a laugh. Sorry, keep taking the tablets, they're important.
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    My guess is that the Tories will take a view by the weekend as to whether being frit or being barbecued by Neil is the lesser of two evils. If the frit vibe snowballs in the press by Saturday, he'll have to do it. (And I suspect Neil making himself available at the time BJ has already said he'll do Marr on Sunday morning is the way out of it).

    Next guess, the complaint to Ofcom about C4 will get nowhere. Two reasons: 1. the general direction since that bit of the RPA was repealed is that the refusal of an invitee to attend can't veto the event. Sure, the law only covered constituency reports, but it was binned because candidates just never got on TV. 2. The Ofcom code and guidance give broadcasters huge leeway in how they achieve due impartiality. A couple of ten minute slots with leading Tories on C4 News (same time slot, same production team, same anchors) over the next week will sort it. Read their finding in ITV v Vote Leave if you're in doubt. (Apart from all this, here's the crucial bit: they invited him to a *leaders'* debate with good notice; he chose not to take part).

    He would be mad to avoid it.

    Labour supporters on here say it makes no difference either way.

    So, tough it out and he must know tactics to use to get through it - he is a bloody politician after all!!!!
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    eggegg Posts: 1,749
    GIN1138 said:

    Norman Lamb js on record as sating he didn't agree with the revoke policy from Jon Swinson's Liberal Democrats so of they do lose North Norfolk they'll only have themselves to blame...

    Vince is frosty towards it to. He says it’s only revoke if libdems win election otherwise it’s its same old 2nd ref policy. The nuclear weapon policy feels a lot different these days too?
    I don’t really want to say this about Jo Swinson. But as I think I am fair minded I do want to say it. As the election has moved on, she has grown on me. I quite like her now. She feels like one of us. You know, a pleb. I don’t think I would come across any different, serious and earnest and a little shrill if I job swapped with her tomorrow.
    Gotta feeling there’s a long way to go in this election.
This discussion has been closed.