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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » So after the MRP polls Johnson’s GE2019 gamble looks as though

SystemSystem Posts: 11,713
edited November 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » So after the MRP polls Johnson’s GE2019 gamble looks as though it will pay off

Our ?@Adamstoon1? ?@EveningStandard? on the latest polls pic.twitter.com/kVrfwrg7x9

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  • Options
    EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    edited November 2019
    Er, first?
    Second successive attempt to ramp the Tories. Hmm. This scares me a bit.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 27,052
    edited November 2019
    Another MRP study by FocalData is being reported in today's Telegraph.
    Details:
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1y1yPOTrBnZcuhJcFrG3Bd5e7uFW_C7qSIgz1Qz4OIms/edit#gid=2101240675
    Seat totals: Con 366, Lab 199, LD 17, SNP 44, PC 4, Grn 1
    It has Blyth Valley going narrowly to the Tories, whereas YouGov's MRP had it staying Labour by 6%.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,505
    Is 30% a reasonable probability for there being a sufficiently large anti-Tory swing in the next two weeks, or for the YouGov MRP to be sufficiently overstating the Tories, or some combination of the two?
    I think it's on the high side. There could be some swing against the Tories, the MRP could be a bit wrong, and it still wouldn't be enough. A 1-in-8 chance feels more accurate than 3-in-10.
  • Options
    ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Mr Smithson Senior is REALLY keen to reassure us that the Tories are going to cruise home.

    That said the geezer from Deltapoll is tweeting that his polling closely follows the YouGov MRP. So either they are herding or the pollsters genuinely think that this is Boris' to lose.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,014
    Remember not a single vote has been cast yet.*

    * Except maybe a few postals.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,014
    Andy_JS said:

    Another MRP study by FocalData is being reported in today's Telegraph.
    Details:
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1y1yPOTrBnZcuhJcFrG3Bd5e7uFW_C7qSIgz1Qz4OIms/edit#gid=2101240675
    Seat totals: Con 366, Lab 199, LD 17, SNP 44, PC 4, Grn 1
    It has Blyth Valley going narrowly to the Tories, whereas YouGov's MRP had it staying Labour by 6%.

    Tories aren't taking Leigh on this one though.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Pulpstar said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Another MRP study by FocalData is being reported in today's Telegraph.
    Details:
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1y1yPOTrBnZcuhJcFrG3Bd5e7uFW_C7qSIgz1Qz4OIms/edit#gid=2101240675
    Seat totals: Con 366, Lab 199, LD 17, SNP 44, PC 4, Grn 1
    It has Blyth Valley going narrowly to the Tories, whereas YouGov's MRP had it staying Labour by 6%.

    Tories aren't taking Leigh on this one though.
    They don't even have it close. I find this one more believable than having it as a Tory gain.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 7,329
    Andy_JS said:

    Another MRP study by FocalData is being reported in today's Telegraph.
    Details:
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1y1yPOTrBnZcuhJcFrG3Bd5e7uFW_C7qSIgz1Qz4OIms/edit#gid=2101240675
    Seat totals: Con 366, Lab 199, LD 17, SNP 44, PC 4, Grn 1
    It has Blyth Valley going narrowly to the Tories, whereas YouGov's MRP had it staying Labour by 6%.

    That's the best for britain one already out
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 27,052
    Pulpstar said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Another MRP study by FocalData is being reported in today's Telegraph.
    Details:
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1y1yPOTrBnZcuhJcFrG3Bd5e7uFW_C7qSIgz1Qz4OIms/edit#gid=2101240675
    Seat totals: Con 366, Lab 199, LD 17, SNP 44, PC 4, Grn 1
    It has Blyth Valley going narrowly to the Tories, whereas YouGov's MRP had it staying Labour by 6%.

    Tories aren't taking Leigh on this one though.
    They're taking Edgbaston instead. I think I'll stick with the YouGov model because it looks more likely to me.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,607
    Byronic said:

    Mr Smithson Senior is REALLY keen to reassure us that the Tories are going to cruise home.

    That said the geezer from Deltapoll is tweeting that his polling closely follows the YouGov MRP. So either they are herding or the pollsters genuinely think that this is Boris' to lose.

    I'm going out on a limb here but I'd expect turnout to be around 99 per cent amongst pb regulars regardless of how the polls look.
  • Options
    Mark_MiewurdzMark_Miewurdz Posts: 17
    Unless the polls are all getting it wrong then very hard to see Cons not getting a majority. Hence Labour switching to a defensive strategy and Lib Dems going from wanting to form the government to wanting to prevent a Tory majority.
  • Options
    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Byronic said:

    Mr Smithson Senior is REALLY keen to reassure us that the Tories are going to cruise home.

    That said the geezer from Deltapoll is tweeting that his polling closely follows the YouGov MRP. So either they are herding or the pollsters genuinely think that this is Boris' to lose.

    I'm going out on a limb here but I'd expect turnout to be around 99 per cent amongst pb regulars regardless of how the polls look.
    Probably even higher 100%+
  • Options
    camelcamel Posts: 815
    '24 hours to save the NHS' redux would suggest some dire private polling for Lab.
    Spendid cartoon by the way. Sums up a lazy tory campaign led by a lazy tory.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,202
    edited November 2019
    All MRP data from Yougov for each seat up here
    https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2019/

    This looks like something of a change election e.g. Harlow and Nuneaton and Thurrock and Torbay and Clwyd West and Gravesham now safe Tory seats, Kensington, Cities of London and Westminster, Chelsea and Fulham, Wokingham and Esher and Walton now marginals
  • Options
    GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,000
    HYUFD said:

    All MRP data from Yougov for each seat up here https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2019/.

    This looks like something of a change election e.g. Harlow and Nuneaton and Thurrock and Torbay and Clwyd West and Gravesham now safe Tory seats, Kensington, Cities of London and Westminster, Chelsea and Fulham, Wokingham and Esher and Walton now marginals

    https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2019/

    Indeed. Cannock Chase, which was Lab in 2005 is projected to be safer than Maidenhead.
  • Options
    ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Byronic said:

    Mr Smithson Senior is REALLY keen to reassure us that the Tories are going to cruise home.

    That said the geezer from Deltapoll is tweeting that his polling closely follows the YouGov MRP. So either they are herding or the pollsters genuinely think that this is Boris' to lose.

    I'm going out on a limb here but I'd expect turnout to be around 99 per cent amongst pb regulars regardless of how the polls look.
    Smithson the Elder has a wider audience, as well.

    Incidentally, the idea that a Corbyn majority government is absolutely impossible is not confirmed by the betting markets. They make it a 10% chance Jeremy "let's destroy Britain" Corbyn could get into Number 10 with his own majority.

    That should stay the hand of the most ardent Remainer, unless they are truly stupid.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,930
    Boris could be the most successful Conservative leader/Prime Minister since Mrs Thatcher in two weeks time!

    Similarity probably ends there... ;)
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,397
    Yes. Big Con majority. And when you think about it, how could it not be? Brexit is the main issue. In 2016 two thirds of constituencies were for Leave. 52/48, yes, but a landslide under hypothetical FPTP. Well now we have it subjected to an actual FPTP. On top of that the Cons have the Leave vote consolidated - Johnson having eaten Farage's lunch - whereas Remainers are split. And on top of that Johnson is far more popular / less unpopular than Jeremy Corbyn. The timing and framing of this election, whether by skill or luck, was nigh on perfect for the Cons. They would have to screw up very badly in running in order to not win it easily. I predicted a 60 majority at the outset and I would now, if anything, move that up to 75. Bastards.
  • Options
    NorthernPowerhouseNorthernPowerhouse Posts: 557
    camel said:

    '24 hours to save the NHS' redux would suggest some dire private polling for Lab.
    Spendid cartoon by the way. Sums up a lazy tory campaign led by a lazy tory.

    Remember 'chilaxing' David Cameron? He wasnt chilaxing, he just made it look easy, the 2015 campaign was magnificent, it just didnt appear so at the time.
  • Options
    ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Mark_Miewurdz said:

    Unless the polls are all getting it wrong then very hard to see Cons not getting a majority. Hence Labour switching to a defensive strategy and Lib Dems going from wanting to form the government to wanting to prevent a Tory majority.

    Most of the polls got it very wrong at the last election, just two years ago, and in similar circumstances - Brexiteering Tory PM facing radical Jez Corbyn.

    It is not stretching the elastic of probability to believe the same might happen now. AND the polls are narrowing, anyhow.

  • Options
    Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,981
    Byronic said:

    Mr Smithson Senior is REALLY keen to reassure us that the Tories are going to cruise home.

    OGH is right. As for "Johnson's Gamble"... :D:D
    It was never a gamble. Corbyn was never going to win and the LDs were idiots for even floating the idea.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,963
    Byronic said:

    Mr Smithson Senior is REALLY keen to reassure us that the Tories are going to cruise home.

    In the same way the Tories are saying Corbyn is just short of getting in to No.10.
    The Lib Dem argument that a vote for them is not enabling either side is a not unreasonable one.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,202
    GarethoftheVale2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    All MRP data from Yougov for each seat up here https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2019/.

    This looks like something of a change election e.g. Harlow and Nuneaton and Thurrock and Torbay and Clwyd West and Gravesham now safe Tory seats, Kensington, Cities of London and Westminster, Chelsea and Fulham, Wokingham and Esher and Walton now marginals

    https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2019/

    Indeed. Cannock Chase, which was Lab in 2005 is projected to be safer than Maidenhead.
    Yes culture now more important than wealth in voting intention
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,963
    MikeSmithson said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Byronic said:

    Mr Smithson Senior is REALLY keen to reassure us that the Tories are going to cruise home.

    That said the geezer from Deltapoll is tweeting that his polling closely follows the YouGov MRP. So either they are herding or the pollsters genuinely think that this is Boris' to lose.

    I'm going out on a limb here but I'd expect turnout to be around 99 per cent amongst pb regulars regardless of how the polls look.
    Probably even higher 100%+
    You surely don't think Byronic will be voting under various pseudonyms ?
  • Options
    BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    edited November 2019
    kinabalu said:

    Yes. Big Con majority. And when you think about it, how could it not be? Brexit is the main issue. In 2016 two thirds of constituencies were for Leave. 52/48, yes, but a landslide under hypothetical FPTP. Well now we have it subjected to an actual FPTP. On top of that the Cons have the Leave vote consolidated - Johnson having eaten Farage's lunch - whereas Remainers are split. And on top of that Johnson is far more popular / less unpopular than Jeremy Corbyn. The timing and framing of this election, whether by skill or luck, was nigh on perfect for the Cons. They would have to screw up very badly in running in order to not win it easily. I predicted a 60 majority at the outset and I would now, if anything, move that up to 75. Bastards.

    I hope you are correct but 2 years ago Brexit was a major issue (not as much as today) and that didn't end so well for the Cons. Has opinion really shifted enough to move 50 seats from Lab to Con in 2 years? Probably not but I hope the Labour vote will be dampened enough that just a few points down on their 2017 score will be enough for a small majority.
  • Options
    Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,981
    kinabalu said:

    Yes. Big Con majority. And when you think about it, how could it not be? Brexit is the main issue. In 2016 two thirds of constituencies were for Leave. 52/48, yes, but a landslide under hypothetical FPTP. Well now we have it subjected to an actual FPTP. On top of that the Cons have the Leave vote consolidated - Johnson having eaten Farage's lunch - whereas Remainers are split. And on top of that Johnson is far more popular / less unpopular than Jeremy Corbyn. The timing and framing of this election, whether by skill or luck, was nigh on perfect for the Cons. They would have to screw up very badly in running in order to not win it easily. I predicted a 60 majority at the outset and I would now, if anything, move that up to 75. Bastards.

    I presume the pollsters have taken vote efficiency into consideration in these MRP models?
  • Options
    AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,645
    Labour shambolic ground game alert:

    https://www.buzzfeed.com/hannahalothman/labour-activists-marginal-seats
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,397
    Byronic said:

    Incidentally, the idea that a Corbyn majority government is absolutely impossible is not confirmed by the betting markets. They make it a 10% chance Jeremy "let's destroy Britain" Corbyn could get into Number 10 with his own majority.

    That does not sound right. A Labour majority is 34 on Betfair. 3% chance. And even that, for me, is free money to lay. I rate it next to impossible. I think as a general rule people who are terrified of something often tend to overstate the chances of the 'something' happening. For example, there could be a bit of this going on with me and Tory landslide. Perhaps it is objectively less likely than I am judging it to be. Because, god, that would be a bad bad Friday 13th chez moi.
  • Options
    NorthernPowerhouseNorthernPowerhouse Posts: 557
    Back to where it all began, Falkirk.. (long history about Eric Joyce MP fight in 2012 been the starting point for everything changing in British politics).... With the Labour candidate now suspended is there a chance of the unionist vote uniting behind the conservative candidate and getting a shock win?
  • Options
    TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    Mark_Miewurdz said:

    Unless the polls are all getting it wrong then very hard to see Cons not getting a majority. Hence Labour switching to a defensive strategy and Lib Dems going from wanting to form the government to wanting to prevent a Tory majority.

    With the (Br)Exit of the BXP Ltd, the Conservatives are creating a coalition of the credulous.

  • Options
    camelcamel Posts: 815
    kinabalu said:

    Yes. Big Con majority. And when you think about it, how could it not be? Brexit is the main issue. In 2016 two thirds of constituencies were for Leave. 52/48, yes, but a landslide under hypothetical FPTP. Well now we have it subjected to an actual FPTP. On top of that the Cons have the Leave vote consolidated - Johnson having eaten Farage's lunch - whereas Remainers are split. And on top of that Johnson is far more popular / less unpopular than Jeremy Corbyn. The timing and framing of this election, whether by skill or luck, was nigh on perfect for the Cons. They would have to screw up very badly in running in order to not win it easily. I predicted a 60 majority at the outset and I would now, if anything, move that up to 75. Bastards.

    I see you have come off your mountain in a better. albeit very resigned mood. I share your opinion, including the last word. Johnson is either a shrewd political operator or a lucky clown. No-one seems to be sure which. But it actually doesn't matter.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,202
    edited November 2019
    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    Labour shambolic ground game alert:

    https://www.buzzfeed.com/hannahalothman/labour-activists-marginal-seats

    Corbyn in Thurrock, Labour activists in Bolton West and Altrincham and Sale West forecast as solid Tory holds with Yougov MRP, no Labour support for Leigh or Bury South projected as Tory gains.

    Momentum in Uxbridge and Chingford and Woodford Green but spending little time in more marginal Chipping Barnet
  • Options
    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Byronic said:

    Mr Smithson Senior is REALLY keen to reassure us that the Tories are going to cruise home.

    That said the geezer from Deltapoll is tweeting that his polling closely follows the YouGov MRP. So either they are herding or the pollsters genuinely think that this is Boris' to lose.

    I'm going out on a limb here but I'd expect turnout to be around 99 per cent amongst pb regulars regardless of how the polls look.
    Remember my main spread bet is on turnout being higher than 66.4%. The more people who vote the more money I make.
  • Options
    AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,645
    HYUFD said:

    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    Labour shambolic ground game alert:

    https://www.buzzfeed.com/hannahalothman/labour-activists-marginal-seats

    Corbyn in Thurrock, Labour activists in Bolton West and Altrincham and Sale West forecast as solid Tory holds with Yougov MRP, no Labour support for Leigh or Bury South projected as Tory gains.

    Momentum in Uxbridge and Chingford and Woodford Green but spending little time in more marginal Chipping Barnet
    Karie Murphy runs a tight ship, eh? Like a well-oiled machine.
  • Options
    camelcamel Posts: 815
    HYUFD said:

    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    Labour shambolic ground game alert:

    https://www.buzzfeed.com/hannahalothman/labour-activists-marginal-seats

    Corbyn in Thurrock, Labour activists in Bolton West and Altrincham and Sale West forecast as solid Tory holds with Yougov MRP, no Labour support for Leigh or Bury South projected as Tory gains.

    Momentum in Uxbridge and Chingford and Woodford Green but spending little time in more marginal Chipping Barnet
    I can't imagine what Jeremy is doing in Thurrock. Does he have relatives there or something?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,202
    edited November 2019
    camel said:

    HYUFD said:

    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    Labour shambolic ground game alert:

    https://www.buzzfeed.com/hannahalothman/labour-activists-marginal-seats

    Corbyn in Thurrock, Labour activists in Bolton West and Altrincham and Sale West forecast as solid Tory holds with Yougov MRP, no Labour support for Leigh or Bury South projected as Tory gains.

    Momentum in Uxbridge and Chingford and Woodford Green but spending little time in more marginal Chipping Barnet
    I can't imagine what Jeremy is doing in Thurrock. Does he have relatives there or something?
    He is still aiming for a majority, likely ends up doing a May and losing seats
  • Options
    camelcamel Posts: 815
    MikeSmithson said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Byronic said:

    Mr Smithson Senior is REALLY keen to reassure us that the Tories are going to cruise home.

    That said the geezer from Deltapoll is tweeting that his polling closely follows the YouGov MRP. So either they are herding or the pollsters genuinely think that this is Boris' to lose.

    I'm going out on a limb here but I'd expect turnout to be around 99 per cent amongst pb regulars regardless of how the polls look.
    Remember my main spread bet is on turnout being higher than 66.4%. The more people who vote the more money I make.
    Great stuff Mike. Have you done enough maths to work out what each extra voter is worth to you in l/s/d?
  • Options
    BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    camel said:

    HYUFD said:

    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    Labour shambolic ground game alert:

    https://www.buzzfeed.com/hannahalothman/labour-activists-marginal-seats

    Corbyn in Thurrock, Labour activists in Bolton West and Altrincham and Sale West forecast as solid Tory holds with Yougov MRP, no Labour support for Leigh or Bury South projected as Tory gains.

    Momentum in Uxbridge and Chingford and Woodford Green but spending little time in more marginal Chipping Barnet
    I can't imagine what Jeremy is doing in Thurrock. Does he have relatives there or something?
    It seems a good idea to keep the vote loser away from anywhere it might be dangerous to lose votes. Thurrock, Mole Valley and Dumfries and Galloway seem the perfect place for him.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 27,052
    edited November 2019
    HYUFD said:

    All MRP data from Yougov for each seat up here
    https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2019/

    This looks like something of a change election e.g. Harlow and Nuneaton and Thurrock and Torbay and Clwyd West and Gravesham now safe Tory seats, Kensington, Cities of London and Westminster, Chelsea and Fulham, Wokingham and Esher and Walton now marginals

    This spreadsheet I've done might be useful as well.
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ry90s0oDXu6_LhDKNiI6fXaSFJsfMBaAXI6cZ8XhqQ8/edit#gid=0
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,202
    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    All MRP data from Yougov for each seat up here
    https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2019/

    This looks like something of a change election e.g. Harlow and Nuneaton and Thurrock and Torbay and Clwyd West and Gravesham now safe Tory seats, Kensington, Cities of London and Westminster, Chelsea and Fulham, Wokingham and Esher and Walton now marginals

    This spreadsheet I've done might be useful as well.
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ry90s0oDXu6_LhDKNiI6fXaSFJsfMBaAXI6cZ8XhqQ8/edit#gid=0
    Thanks
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,607
    Nigelb said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Byronic said:

    Mr Smithson Senior is REALLY keen to reassure us that the Tories are going to cruise home.

    That said the geezer from Deltapoll is tweeting that his polling closely follows the YouGov MRP. So either they are herding or the pollsters genuinely think that this is Boris' to lose.

    I'm going out on a limb here but I'd expect turnout to be around 99 per cent amongst pb regulars regardless of how the polls look.
    Probably even higher 100%+
    You surely don't think Byronic will be voting under various pseudonyms ?
    The tin foil mob will have CCHQ sending people to commit voter fraud in order to justify needing ID cards and a sworn reference from the Eton headmaster before being allowed to vote.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,014
    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    Labour shambolic ground game alert:

    https://www.buzzfeed.com/hannahalothman/labour-activists-marginal-seats

    300 activists on a single seat o_O. Sounds like an absolubte-ly fucking mental amount.
    Assume 30,000 flats and houses in a constituency that works out at a hundred houses a person. That's a couple of hours for leafletting and perhaps twice that for a canvass.
    What are the activists doing with the rest of their time ?
    Couldn't they spare any for nearby seats :o ?!
  • Options
    ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    kinabalu said:

    Byronic said:

    Incidentally, the idea that a Corbyn majority government is absolutely impossible is not confirmed by the betting markets. They make it a 10% chance Jeremy "let's destroy Britain" Corbyn could get into Number 10 with his own majority.

    That does not sound right. A Labour majority is 34 on Betfair. 3% chance. And even that, for me, is free money to lay. I rate it next to impossible. I think as a general rule people who are terrified of something often tend to overstate the chances of the 'something' happening. For example, there could be a bit of this going on with me and Tory landslide. Perhaps it is objectively less likely than I am judging it to be. Because, god, that would be a bad bad Friday 13th chez moi.
    I'm just using the graphic on PB's own header (previous thread) where it says in plain red and white: Labour overall majority, chances - 10%

    Is OGH wrong?
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    NorthernPowerhouseNorthernPowerhouse Posts: 557
    Brom said:

    kinabalu said:

    Yes. Big Con majority. And when you think about it, how could it not be? Brexit is the main issue. In 2016 two thirds of constituencies were for Leave. 52/48, yes, but a landslide under hypothetical FPTP. Well now we have it subjected to an actual FPTP. On top of that the Cons have the Leave vote consolidated - Johnson having eaten Farage's lunch - whereas Remainers are split. And on top of that Johnson is far more popular / less unpopular than Jeremy Corbyn. The timing and framing of this election, whether by skill or luck, was nigh on perfect for the Cons. They would have to screw up very badly in running in order to not win it easily. I predicted a 60 majority at the outset and I would now, if anything, move that up to 75. Bastards.

    I hope you are correct but 2 years ago Brexit was a major issue (not as much as today) and that didn't end so well for the Cons. Has opinion really shifted enough to move 50 seats from Lab to Con in 2 years? Probably not but I hope the Labour vote will be dampened enough that just a few points down on their 2017 score will be enough for a small majority.
    Two years ago the two main parties absolutely categorically promised to support the referendum result, with the lib dems been the only anti brexit party in England, and they got utterly hammered. Two years watching parliament do everything it possibly can to block brexit means that honouring the result cant just be put on the back burner.
  • Options
    Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,981
    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    All MRP data from Yougov for each seat up here
    https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2019/

    This looks like something of a change election e.g. Harlow and Nuneaton and Thurrock and Torbay and Clwyd West and Gravesham now safe Tory seats, Kensington, Cities of London and Westminster, Chelsea and Fulham, Wokingham and Esher and Walton now marginals

    This spreadsheet I've done might be useful as well.
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ry90s0oDXu6_LhDKNiI6fXaSFJsfMBaAXI6cZ8XhqQ8/edit#gid=0
    Crikey! Wow! Yes indeed.
    Best regards
    Boris

    ;)
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,397
    camel said:

    I see you have come off your mountain in a better. albeit very resigned mood. I share your opinion, including the last word. Johnson is either a shrewd political operator or a lucky clown. No-one seems to be sure which. But it actually doesn't matter.

    Yes, a bit of buddhism works wonders. Mix of luck and political skill, I suppose. But, no, like you say, it really doesn't matter. Upshot is, many years of him (and them). FWIW, my opinion is that the Benn Act was what dun it. What set this up on a plate. A terrible error. 'We' - the cognescenti - the forces of all that is good and right in this world - we should have made BoJo own that 'No Deal or Extension?' choice. It would have skewered him. Ah well.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,607
    camel said:

    HYUFD said:

    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    Labour shambolic ground game alert:

    https://www.buzzfeed.com/hannahalothman/labour-activists-marginal-seats

    Corbyn in Thurrock, Labour activists in Bolton West and Altrincham and Sale West forecast as solid Tory holds with Yougov MRP, no Labour support for Leigh or Bury South projected as Tory gains.

    Momentum in Uxbridge and Chingford and Woodford Green but spending little time in more marginal Chipping Barnet
    I can't imagine what Jeremy is doing in Thurrock. Does he have relatives there or something?
    Shades of 1983 and Michael Foot being sent on a constituency tour to prop up the trots.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,457
    edited November 2019
    Byronic said:

    blah blah

    99p ????
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,963
    edited November 2019
    The knives are out for Mayor Pete since he took a lead in Iowa polling.
    https://www.politico.com/news/2019/11/27/pete-buttigieg-campaign-message-074268
    https://www.politico.com/news/2019/11/27/pete-buttigieg-latinos-support-074131
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    Mark_MiewurdzMark_Miewurdz Posts: 17
    Byronic said:

    Mark_Miewurdz said:

    Unless the polls are all getting it wrong then very hard to see Cons not getting a majority. Hence Labour switching to a defensive strategy and Lib Dems going from wanting to form the government to wanting to prevent a Tory majority.

    Most of the polls got it very wrong at the last election, just two years ago, and in similar circumstances - Brexiteering Tory PM facing radical Jez Corbyn.

    It is not stretching the elastic of probability to believe the same might happen now. AND the polls are narrowing, anyhow.

    True, it's always possible but in 2017 the polls felt wrong - the Con campaign was terrible, the Lab campaign quite energetic, and of course the leadership ratings of May and Corbyn closed up. This time round the Cons have run a very focused albeit dull campaign while Lab has been unfocused - the polls feel right to me.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,479
    Brom said:

    camel said:

    HYUFD said:

    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    Labour shambolic ground game alert:

    https://www.buzzfeed.com/hannahalothman/labour-activists-marginal-seats

    Corbyn in Thurrock, Labour activists in Bolton West and Altrincham and Sale West forecast as solid Tory holds with Yougov MRP, no Labour support for Leigh or Bury South projected as Tory gains.

    Momentum in Uxbridge and Chingford and Woodford Green but spending little time in more marginal Chipping Barnet
    I can't imagine what Jeremy is doing in Thurrock. Does he have relatives there or something?
    It seems a good idea to keep the vote loser away from anywhere it might be dangerous to lose votes. Thurrock, Mole Valley and Dumfries and Galloway seem the perfect place for him.
    iirc Karie Murphy has designed the strategy and it is a 99% target thing, where nearly every seat is attacked.
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    Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,981
    Nigelb said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Byronic said:

    Mr Smithson Senior is REALLY keen to reassure us that the Tories are going to cruise home.

    That said the geezer from Deltapoll is tweeting that his polling closely follows the YouGov MRP. So either they are herding or the pollsters genuinely think that this is Boris' to lose.

    I'm going out on a limb here but I'd expect turnout to be around 99 per cent amongst pb regulars regardless of how the polls look.
    Probably even higher 100%+
    You surely don't think Byronic will be voting under various pseudonyms ?
    Well, he does seem to have two personalities - the calm one and rip-roaring "Where's me bottle of Jamaica Rum?" buccaneering one....
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    Mark_MiewurdzMark_Miewurdz Posts: 17
    Byronic said:

    kinabalu said:

    Byronic said:

    Incidentally, the idea that a Corbyn majority government is absolutely impossible is not confirmed by the betting markets. They make it a 10% chance Jeremy "let's destroy Britain" Corbyn could get into Number 10 with his own majority.

    That does not sound right. A Labour majority is 34 on Betfair. 3% chance. And even that, for me, is free money to lay. I rate it next to impossible. I think as a general rule people who are terrified of something often tend to overstate the chances of the 'something' happening. For example, there could be a bit of this going on with me and Tory landslide. Perhaps it is objectively less likely than I am judging it to be. Because, god, that would be a bad bad Friday 13th chez moi.
    I'm just using the graphic on PB's own header (previous thread) where it says in plain red and white: Labour overall majority, chances - 10%

    Is OGH wrong?
    The 10% is for Lab minority (presumably biggest party)
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713
    NorthernPowerhouse said:

    Brom said:

    kinabalu said:

    Yes. Big Con majority. And when you think about it, how could it not be? Brexit is the main issue. In 2016 two thirds of constituencies were for Leave. 52/48, yes, but a landslide under hypothetical FPTP. Well now we have it subjected to an actual FPTP. On top of that the Cons have the Leave vote consolidated - Johnson having eaten Farage's lunch - whereas Remainers are split. And on top of that Johnson is far more popular / less unpopular than Jeremy Corbyn. The timing and framing of this election, whether by skill or luck, was nigh on perfect for the Cons. They would have to screw up very badly in running in order to not win it easily. I predicted a 60 majority at the outset and I would now, if anything, move that up to 75. Bastards.

    I hope you are correct but 2 years ago Brexit was a major issue (not as much as today) and that didn't end so well for the Cons. Has opinion really shifted enough to move 50 seats from Lab to Con in 2 years? Probably not but I hope the Labour vote will be dampened enough that just a few points down on their 2017 score will be enough for a small majority.
    Two years ago the two main parties absolutely categorically promised to support the referendum result, with the lib dems been the only anti brexit party in England, and they got utterly hammered. Two years watching parliament do everything it possibly can to block brexit means that honouring the result cant just be put on the back burner.
    Also i don't think it can be overstated how rubbish May was. First running away from 'all' debates, unlike Boris (currently), and then having a stupid manifetso pledge which offered nothing, or even negative things.
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    ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    Byronic said:

    kinabalu said:

    Byronic said:

    Incidentally, the idea that a Corbyn majority government is absolutely impossible is not confirmed by the betting markets. They make it a 10% chance Jeremy "let's destroy Britain" Corbyn could get into Number 10 with his own majority.

    That does not sound right. A Labour majority is 34 on Betfair. 3% chance. And even that, for me, is free money to lay. I rate it next to impossible. I think as a general rule people who are terrified of something often tend to overstate the chances of the 'something' happening. For example, there could be a bit of this going on with me and Tory landslide. Perhaps it is objectively less likely than I am judging it to be. Because, god, that would be a bad bad Friday 13th chez moi.
    I'm just using the graphic on PB's own header (previous thread) where it says in plain red and white: Labour overall majority, chances - 10%

    Is OGH wrong?
    Minority 10%?
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763

    French complaining they spend too much on their hospitals

    better not tell Jezza

    https://www.lefigaro.fr/conjoncture/la-france-depense-plus-pour-l-hopital-que-ses-voisins-europeens-20191128
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    El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,887
    camel said:

    HYUFD said:

    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    Labour shambolic ground game alert:

    https://www.buzzfeed.com/hannahalothman/labour-activists-marginal-seats

    Corbyn in Thurrock, Labour activists in Bolton West and Altrincham and Sale West forecast as solid Tory holds with Yougov MRP, no Labour support for Leigh or Bury South projected as Tory gains.

    Momentum in Uxbridge and Chingford and Woodford Green but spending little time in more marginal Chipping Barnet
    I can't imagine what Jeremy is doing in Thurrock.
    A bit of early Christmas shopping at Lakeside?
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    Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,981
    kinabalu said:

    camel said:

    I see you have come off your mountain in a better. albeit very resigned mood. I share your opinion, including the last word. Johnson is either a shrewd political operator or a lucky clown. No-one seems to be sure which. But it actually doesn't matter.

    Yes, a bit of buddhism works wonders. Mix of luck and political skill, I suppose. But, no, like you say, it really doesn't matter. Upshot is, many years of him (and them). FWIW, my opinion is that the Benn Act was what dun it. What set this up on a plate. A terrible error. 'We' - the cognescenti - the forces of all that is good and right in this world - we should have made BoJo own that 'No Deal or Extension?' choice. It would have skewered him. Ah well.
    Personally I blame the LDs and their daft election idea.
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,319
    Highly marginal Chipping Barnet:
    Postal vote received for my mother today - despite the Council registering her death 3 weeks ago (and I doing the Tell US Once service).
    Not one canvasser from any Party has come to the house.
    Just one leaflet each from Con, Lab and LD.
    And I have seen no activity from any Party on the High Street or anywhere else.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,397
    Just struck me. The board has become a lot more "Tory" and Brexity as the inevitability of them both triumphing has become clear.
    Where is @williamglenn Where is @Scott_P Where is the mighty @Noo ??
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    TimTTimT Posts: 6,328
    kinabalu said:

    Just struck me. The board has become a lot more "Tory" and Brexity as the inevitability of them both triumphing has become clear.
    Where is @williamglenn Where is @Scott_P Where is the mighty @Noo ??

    When a sore hurts, stop picking at it ...
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    camelcamel Posts: 815
    Beibheirli_C said:

    kinabalu said:

    camel said:

    I see you have come off your mountain in a better. albeit very resigned mood. I share your opinion, including the last word. Johnson is either a shrewd political operator or a lucky clown. No-one seems to be sure which. But it actually doesn't matter.

    Yes, a bit of buddhism works wonders. Mix of luck and political skill, I suppose. But, no, like you say, it really doesn't matter. Upshot is, many years of him (and them). FWIW, my opinion is that the Benn Act was what dun it. What set this up on a plate. A terrible error. 'We' - the cognescenti - the forces of all that is good and right in this world - we should have made BoJo own that 'No Deal or Extension?' choice. It would have skewered him. Ah well.
    Personally I blame the LDs and their daft election idea.
    I agree with you too, and they're my team.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,457
    MikeL said:

    Highly marginal Chipping Barnet:
    Postal vote received for my mother today - despite the Council registering her death 3 weeks ago (and I doing the Tell US Once service).
    Not one canvasser from any Party has come to the house.
    Just one leaflet each from Con, Lab and LD.
    And I have seen no activity from any Party on the High Street or anywhere else.

    Very sorry to hear that.
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    humbuggerhumbugger Posts: 377
    kinabalu said:

    Just struck me. The board has become a lot more "Tory" and Brexity as the inevitability of them both triumphing has become clear.
    Where is @williamglenn Where is @Scott_P Where is the mighty @Noo ??

    Good point. And where's a man called horse today?
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,397
    Beibheirli_C said:

    Personally I blame the LDs and their daft election idea.

    That too. And it hasn't worked out for them either. The dream of replacing Labour as the main non-Tory party remains just that. A dream.
  • Options
    ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,819
    edited November 2019
    I certainly believe the the latest MRPs to be a plausible and unsurprising result at this stage, but of course it can all change. Tactical voting inefficiency and simple dislike of Corbyn are a powerful combination supporting a tory majority. It would seem that the tory vote is near maxed out now, at this point most people truly afraid of Corbyn are going to already be voting Conservative, including Tory Lib Dem waverers.
    So the question is whether there is anything left for Labour to squeeze, either LDs (in overall terms probably not more than a percentage or 2 at best, but that could have a big seat impact depending on how and where it happens).
    They can also try the ol' youthquake strategy. Increased turnout could help surge Labour votes on the day but not sure that effect is concentrated enough to change that many seats.
    The current Labour strategy change of trying to hold on to those Labour leavers is a good one, at this point they have probably sewn up the remainers, can afford to pivot to leavers without losing remainer votes due to Lib Dems falling back. This could help, its easy to convince someone not to change the habit of a lifetime, than it is to convince them to change.
    Lastly if Brexit really is the most important issue in Scotland above indy among most voters maybe tactical voting can help take a few more Scon seats than currently predicted.
    Certainly seems to be that there is a plausible route to a hung parliament from here, even if it requires several stars aligning. I think efforts will just fall short and we will be looking at a small tory majority around the levels of 2015.
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    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,505
    kinabalu said:

    Just struck me. The board has become a lot more "Tory" and Brexity as the inevitability of them both triumphing has become clear.
    Where is @williamglenn Where is @Scott_P Where is the mighty @Noo ??

    Were they not all lost souls at the time of the great password reset? Turns out that I forgot the password for the email account I'd registered a vanilla account with.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,014
    What on earth is going on with Jezza's shirt in the picture of him on the bbc news website ?
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    BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    kinabalu said:

    Just struck me. The board has become a lot more "Tory" and Brexity as the inevitability of them both triumphing has become clear.
    Where is @williamglenn Where is @Scott_P Where is the mighty @Noo ??

    Scott P had a history of popping up only when things were going against the Tories. So as long as he stays away things are probably OK for them
  • Options
    ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    edited November 2019
    kinabalu said:

    Just struck me. The board has become a lot more "Tory" and Brexity as the inevitability of them both triumphing has become clear.
    Where is @williamglenn Where is @Scott_P Where is the mighty @Noo ??

    We do have the (new) delights of the Battery Powered Horse.

    Sadly.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,457
    edited November 2019
    Brom said:

    Scott P had a history of popping up only when things were going against the Tories. So as long as he stays away things are probably OK for them

    It might be that he still has to make amends for his vile Radiohead slur.
  • Options
    ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    ozymandias said:

    Byronic said:

    kinabalu said:

    Byronic said:

    Incidentally, the idea that a Corbyn majority government is absolutely impossible is not confirmed by the betting markets. They make it a 10% chance Jeremy "let's destroy Britain" Corbyn could get into Number 10 with his own majority.

    That does not sound right. A Labour majority is 34 on Betfair. 3% chance. And even that, for me, is free money to lay. I rate it next to impossible. I think as a general rule people who are terrified of something often tend to overstate the chances of the 'something' happening. For example, there could be a bit of this going on with me and Tory landslide. Perhaps it is objectively less likely than I am judging it to be. Because, god, that would be a bad bad Friday 13th chez moi.
    I'm just using the graphic on PB's own header (previous thread) where it says in plain red and white: Labour overall majority, chances - 10%

    Is OGH wrong?
    Minority 10%?
    You're going to think me mad, but until about 5 minutes ago that graphic was - I swear - saying 10% chance of a majority, on my laptop (and it gave me the heebie jeebies)

    Or maybe I am mad and my fears of a Fidel Corbyn victory are making me hallucinate.

    Anyway, I am more than happy to confirm that it is not a 10% chance. Though even a 3% chance is freaky.

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    camelcamel Posts: 815
    ozymandias said:

    kinabalu said:

    Just struck me. The board has become a lot more "Tory" and Brexity as the inevitability of them both triumphing has become clear.
    Where is @williamglenn Where is @Scott_P Where is the mighty @Noo ??

    We do have the (new) delights of the Battery Powered Horse.

    Sadly.
    the Powered Horse is a good advert for Duracell though.
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 7,329
    Jo Swinson, the woman who took the LDs from storming all in the Euros to Tim Farron levels of meh. A salutory lesson in hubris
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,213
    Pulpstar said:

    What on earth is going on with Jezza's shirt in the picture of him on the bbc news website ?

    It's the shadow from the microphone.
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    TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    kinabalu said:

    Beibheirli_C said:

    Personally I blame the LDs and their daft election idea.

    That too. And it hasn't worked out for them either. The dream of replacing Labour as the main non-Tory party remains just that. A dream.
    About the only silver lining is Johnson unequivocally gets to own the Brexit disaster. Although governing the ashes of the economy for whomever comes next will be phyrric
  • Options
    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Pulpstar said:

    What on earth is going on with Jezza's shirt in the picture of him on the bbc news website ?

    He's down with the kids. Only 'the man' wears a tie. Or summat.
  • Options
    ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    camel said:

    ozymandias said:

    kinabalu said:

    Just struck me. The board has become a lot more "Tory" and Brexity as the inevitability of them both triumphing has become clear.
    Where is @williamglenn Where is @Scott_P Where is the mighty @Noo ??

    We do have the (new) delights of the Battery Powered Horse.

    Sadly.
    the Powered Horse is a good advert for Duracell though.
    Duracell or Durex?
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 7,329
    camel said:

    ozymandias said:

    kinabalu said:

    Just struck me. The board has become a lot more "Tory" and Brexity as the inevitability of them both triumphing has become clear.
    Where is @williamglenn Where is @Scott_P Where is the mighty @Noo ??

    We do have the (new) delights of the Battery Powered Horse.

    Sadly.
    the Powered Horse is a good advert for Duracell though.
    Hes like the Energizer bunny but with added threatening emails to MPs about Jews and the enabling act
  • Options
    ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    camel said:

    Beibheirli_C said:

    kinabalu said:

    camel said:

    I see you have come off your mountain in a better. albeit very resigned mood. I share your opinion, including the last word. Johnson is either a shrewd political operator or a lucky clown. No-one seems to be sure which. But it actually doesn't matter.

    Yes, a bit of buddhism works wonders. Mix of luck and political skill, I suppose. But, no, like you say, it really doesn't matter. Upshot is, many years of him (and them). FWIW, my opinion is that the Benn Act was what dun it. What set this up on a plate. A terrible error. 'We' - the cognescenti - the forces of all that is good and right in this world - we should have made BoJo own that 'No Deal or Extension?' choice. It would have skewered him. Ah well.
    Personally I blame the LDs and their daft election idea.
    I agree with you too, and they're my team.
    If we hadn't had an election where would we be? The democratic dam had to break.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,202
    MikeL said:

    Highly marginal Chipping Barnet:
    Postal vote received for my mother today - despite the Council registering her death 3 weeks ago (and I doing the Tell US Once service).
    Not one canvasser from any Party has come to the house.
    Just one leaflet each from Con, Lab and LD.
    And I have seen no activity from any Party on the High Street or anywhere else.

    I expect after the MRP put it tied you will now have nothing but canvassers and leaflets

    (Condolonces on your mother)
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    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    What on earth is going on with Jezza's shirt in the picture of him on the bbc news website ?

    It's the shadow from the microphone.
    So he's not just very excited about being in front of 100 fawning acolytes? Maybe he's going all David Koresh.
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    TrèsDifficileTrèsDifficile Posts: 1,729
    TrèsDifficile said:

    Don't know how much is available to bet on it, but surely Smarkets 3/10 on Tory most votes must be pretty good free money?

    Posted less than 48 hrs ago, now 2/13
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,302
    edited November 2019
    Brom said:

    kinabalu said:

    Just struck me. The board has become a lot more "Tory" and Brexity as the inevitability of them both triumphing has become clear.
    Where is @williamglenn Where is @Scott_P Where is the mighty @Noo ??

    Scott P had a history of popping up only when things were going against the Tories. So as long as he stays away things are probably OK for them
    Scott used to be a big Tory support, it was only Brexit that sent him into his current stance.

    It is odd he has gone AWOL, as long as I have been posting on here, I think he has been downloading twitter on a daily basis.
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,397
    HYUFD said:

    Yes culture now more important than wealth in voting intention

    Whether you have any or not?
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,607
    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    What on earth is going on with Jezza's shirt in the picture of him on the bbc news website ?

    It's the shadow from the microphone.
    Odd that Labour's not phoned the BBC to get it changed.
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,397
    edited November 2019
    Beibheirli_C said:

    I presume the pollsters have taken vote efficiency into consideration in these MRP models?

    I think so, yes, although I'm not sure exactly how. The straw I'm clinging to is that somehow (i) the VI gap narrows to 7 or less and (ii) the anti-Con (and remainer) tactical voting is very determined and smart.
    Are you feeling determined and smart?
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    FishingFishing Posts: 4,562
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Byronic said:

    Mr Smithson Senior is REALLY keen to reassure us that the Tories are going to cruise home.

    That said the geezer from Deltapoll is tweeting that his polling closely follows the YouGov MRP. So either they are herding or the pollsters genuinely think that this is Boris' to lose.

    I'm going out on a limb here but I'd expect turnout to be around 99 per cent amongst pb regulars regardless of how the polls look.
    I'm the 1% as I am flying that day and haven't sorted out a postal vote.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,302
    edited November 2019
    kinabalu said:

    Beibheirli_C said:

    I presume the pollsters have taken vote efficiency into consideration in these MRP models?

    I think so, yes, although I'm not sure exactly how. The straw I'm clinging to is that somehow (i) the VI gap narrows to 7 or less and (ii) the anti-Con (and remainer) tactical voting is very determined and smart.
    Are you feeling determined and smart?
    It is hard to know, because we could also see the opposite with the likes of Remain voters in your Guildford's of the world thinking s##t we can't risk Jezza and voting Tory, where as if it looked like a home run for the Tories of 100 majority (as I think was the case in the YouGov MRP model if it has been released 10 days ago) I think you would have found them voting Lib Dem.

    I think the bigger factor is if all these lifelong Labour Leave voters do stick with the Tories or go home, especially with "Honest Broker" Jezza act.
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    GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123
    Did MysticRose get banned? The comments the other night were unacceptable. No way is that person a LibDem supporter.
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,397
    Brom said:

    I hope you are correct but 2 years ago Brexit was a major issue (not as much as today) and that didn't end so well for the Cons. Has opinion really shifted enough to move 50 seats from Lab to Con in 2 years? Probably not but I hope the Labour vote will be dampened enough that just a few points down on their 2017 score will be enough for a small majority.

    You can relax Mr Brom. Really, you can. You want a strong Tory government and to Get Brexit Done. So, in FPTP terms, does the country.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Endillion said:

    Er, first?
    Second successive attempt to ramp the Tories. Hmm. This scares me a bit.

    Mike has an editorial agenda

    He wants Tory Remainers to think it’s safe to vote LibDem
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,457
    edited November 2019
    OK superbrains - please let me know how to reconcile the following:
    1) MRP YouGov poll gives est. Cons seat maj of 68
    2) Electoral Calculus has just revised its seat prediction down further to 12 seats (which I appreciate comes after the 7pt lead polls).
    Thanks team.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,505
    kinabalu said:

    Beibheirli_C said:

    I presume the pollsters have taken vote efficiency into consideration in these MRP models?

    I think so, yes, although I'm not sure exactly how. The straw I'm clinging to is that somehow (i) the VI gap narrows to 7 or less and (ii) the anti-Con (and remainer) tactical voting is very determined and smart.
    Are you feeling determined and smart?
    It seems obvious to me that the anti-Tory tactical voting will be less efficient than in 2017. Firstly, Corbyn is more tarnished now, repelling more tactical voters. Secondly, it was obvious in 2017 that the anti-Tory tactical vote had to be for Labour, but for all that the Lib Dems have had a disappointing campaign the MRP still shows there are lots more constituencies where they are better placed than Labour than in 2017.
    May has her place in history. Ain't no tactical voting against Johnson going to take that away from her.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,302
    edited November 2019
    TOPPING said:

    OK superbrains - please let me know how to reconcile the following:
    1) MRP YouGov poll gives est. Cons seat maj of 68
    2) Electoral Calculus has just revised its seat prediction down further to 12 seats (which I appreciate comes after the 7pt lead polls).
    Thanks team.

    YouGov is based on Tories winning by 11% and was taken over the course of the last week (which began with Labour still sub 30%). From the slide that was tweeted, it seems they have picked up a bit of the Labour surge, but the polls over the past 2 days have shown that the surge is bigger than that.

    I think if YouGov had just covered the last 5 days, their prediction would be for a very smaller Tory majority.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763
    TOPPING said:

    OK superbrains - please let me know how to reconcile the following:
    1) MRP YouGov poll gives est. Cons seat maj of 68
    2) Electoral Calculus has just revised its seat prediction down further to 12 seats (which I appreciate comes after the 7pt lead polls).
    Thanks team.

    one of them is wrong

    experts eh ?
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Pulpstar said:

    Remember not a single vote has been cast yet.*

    * Except maybe a few postals.

    Mine has
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    FishingFishing Posts: 4,562
    wooliedyed said:

    Jo Swinson, the woman who took the LDs from storming all in the Euros to Tim Farron levels of meh. A salutory lesson in hubris

    Also a lesson in how seriously people took the Euro elections and another reason we're better off out.
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    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    https://twitter.com/haveigotnews/status/1200066579268067328
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,302
    Also, for people asking about the difference in predicted majorities...

    https://britainelects.newstatesman.com/2019/11/28/six-thoughts-on-yougovs-mrp-model-of-the-2019-election/
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