Categories
Options
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » PB Quickie Survey: Which party leaders are going to survive
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » PB Quickie Survey: Which party leaders are going to survive the next 20 months
politicalbetting.com is proudly powered by WordPress
with "Neat!" theme. Entries (RSS) and Comments (RSS).
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
Cameron and Eck. The rest gawn.
Cam will go if the Tories lose power
Ed will go whatever happens, he's useless.
Clegg is as gone as a goner
Salmond goes or stays with a yes or a no.
Cam only.
http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-26988891
It's odd that East Germans look towards Russia as liberators, yet no other group that was behind the Iron Curtain does.
FPT:
@Stark_Dawning said:
"More complaints that the Labour party in Scotland is moribund and letting the nationalists walk all over it:
'Another worry is the state of Scottish Labour. Alistair Carmichael, the Scottish Secterary, bemoaned that it is leaderless, rudderless and soldierless and thus unable to give ‘Better Together the support the Unionist side was banking on. There is also increasing coalition frustration with the intensely tribal way in which Scottish Labour is behaving.'
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/james-forsyth/2014/04/cabinet-concern-over-the-state-of-the-unionist-campaign-in-scotland-laid-bare/
I must say I'm astonished by what has materialized over recent months. The myth we have long been fed in England was that Scottish Labour were the toughest and most ruthless political street fighters in the business. What's happened? Did they become arrogant and complacent? Have they had the stuffing knocked out of them by the SNP? Can someone please explain the demise of Scottish Labour?"
They don't like being publicly in bed with Tories and their LD chums? Publicly obeying what Tories and LDs yell at them to do? They don't want to get voted out of their nice MP and MSP constituencies as a result?
Seriously. Is there any better reason?
I can't think what else it can be. Unless there is some secret weapon, hundreds of V-1s being readied for another strafing session a la Dambusters.
It may be relevant that not many LDs and Tories are willing to put their heads above the parapet and actually speak in public and engage with the Yes side and the voters, as opposed to visiting the trenches for a few moments and then heading back to the chateau again. But chateau generals are apt to end up with mutinies, and at the moment one might be forgiven for wondering a little bit if SLAB are beginning to sound like the poilus post-Verdun, with Nivelle leading the No Campaign, and the officers frightened of getting fragged* if they push their rank and file too far.
*Anachronism, I know, but I don't know the original expression en francais ...
Labour are almost certain to avoid a heavy defeat in 2015, and will probably win. If there is a narrow defeat, Miliband carries the Brownites with him. He won't resign and will instead fight on, as Kinnock did.
As for Cameron: I cannot see him resigning if the Scots vote for independence. If he loses the 2015 GE in such a way he cannot form a government, then he'll resign. Would he really want to go through the process of rebuilding the party all over again?
And before the UKIPpers salivate at the thought: whoever replaces Cameron will be from a centrist background, not a right-wing one. The future lies that way, and most of the Tory MPs know that.
Shame about Cameron, he was nearly a good PM but unfortunately he possesses a couple of fatal flaws, one being his inability to sack ministers when necessary as recently exemplified but also evident on several previous occasions.
David Cameron will only resign if he loses the GE which he wont do. The Indy Ref is irrelevant apart from the prospect of denying Labour its largest group of MPs from future GEs. If Cameron wins and decides he needs LibDem support, he might decide Clegg remains whether all LibDems like it or not. I cannot see Ed going unless he does indeed prove to be Michael Foot Mark II. He is more likely to be Neil Kinnock Mark II and cling on by his fingernails.
I doubt Farage will last. When UKIP bombs at the GE he will either go or be toppled by Nuttall.
Eck will only go when Eck is ready. He will hand over to Nicola Sturgeon but I would expect him to lead the Nats into the 2016 election and then hand over in 2017 when he will have been FM for a decade.
I don't think Cameron should (let alone has to) resign if the Scots vote to leave.
Would Cameron grant immediate Devo Max and disband the Scottish MP quota at Westminster for 2015 , pending conclusion of negotiation and handover? Or would some deal be reached restricting the voting power of the 57? Or will it be business as usual with the 57 to go on Independence Day?
How would Westminster look in the period between yes and rUK/.Indy Scotland?
Over the last couple of years (indeed, as long as I've been on PB) I've been championing a young lad who was racing in the Ginetta Junior championship called Harry Woodhead. He won last year's championship at a canter, and this year has moved up to the Ginetta Supercup. Sadly he's had two DNF's out of his three races so far this year. Mind you, he's 16 and racing against several 30- and 40- year olds.
Anyway, it turns out there's a children's program featuring four of last year Juniors crop, including Woodhead. It starts tomorrow morning. I've no idea how dumbed down it will be for kids, but it might be of interest to some of you in PBland.
http://www.thecheckeredflag.co.uk/2014/04/ginetta-juniors-star-new-cbbc-series/
Any party (in Westminster) objecting would look like they're too soft on the Scots, and more concerned with the Scottish than the British interest (if Yes wins then obviously those two things diverge at once). That would be very bad for the election.
And again, when I try and submit, the first effort centres everything. Vanilla is silly nowadays.
Can't see the UK getting away with no Scottish representation and no Devo Max pre-independence. Totally undemocratic.
Farage [ I pronounce it the English way, not the French one ! ] will stay. He enjoys the limelight. As the Tories choose a more centrist leader to try to win the following term, UKIP's chance actually will increase, perhaps with a defection or two.
I have just been discussing College over a fine Bourgogne Passetoutgrains and roast chump of pork.
A favourite guest had watched Friday's HIGNFY. She noted that College's denial of his 7-times-a-night-romp with a Latvian was far more vehement than his obfuscatory response to claims that he had an affair with his publicity girl. She was most scathing and predicted that scandal will befall College long before the electors get their chance.
Her objection was not to College's adultery - she is herself a serial adulteress - but to his brazen and priapic boasting. Here he is on that unfortunate encounter with 'Liga Nord':
"I met her in a pub and accepted her invitation home for a drink. She was sleek and seductive and I will not splutter that after the first bottle I would necessarily have behaved like Sir Galahad."
I predict College's vicarious appeal to the over-65's is certain to be short-lived.
He looks fine if he gets a Brexit No, which will itself mean he is PM.
Can he stay on after a narrow defeat to Lab in 2015? Regrettably I think not. Cons will think (hugely mistakenly) that they have given this left-wing soft-centre mumbo-jumbo a go and it hasn't worked. This would be a huge mistake as Cam has been in a coalition.
Where they may have more (but still insufficient) grounds is to ask why he didn't lead the Cons to an OM in 2010 and the blame for that will come out if he loses GE2015. Was it the largest swing in recent times, however? I believe it was. Did he nevertheless lose the election when people were gagging to get rid of the incumbents? Yep.
Clegg? He will become the safe coalition hands if Lab look like they will need to form one and if the LDs have stayed with him for the past five years it would make little sense to get rid of him if there is another Cons coalition. If there is no coalition then yes they might as well get rid of him.
If Lab win then EdM gets to wreak his havoc on the country. If they lose, it will be narrowly, and Lab might stick with him. They have never been slickly efficient in getting rid of leaders.
Farage? Staying.
Salmond? Agree with SeanT - either he loses indyref but Scots feel embarrassed at having voted No, or he wins and heads off into the sunset with his country. Then again, don't rule out a Winston save the country lose his job reaction. Although it is doubtful.
"A fifth of those with degrees said they were proud to be British, compared with 59% who have no qualifications."
If Scotland does vote YES in September then we will see a mad rush and secret meetings with offers of Peerages on all sides of the house to make way for the likes of Douglas and Danny Alexander, Jim Murphy given that few current MSPs would be willing to stand aside for them. Ironically given the mauling both Labour and the LibDems got from the SNP in 2011, each of these Westminster "big beasts" could fight a constituency seat in 2016 if they want to go to Holyrood given how many their parties lost in 2011. David Mundell was an MSP before becoming an MP so he could easily return to being a regional MSP.
However, F1 drivers can be a success after driving tin-tops; Webber and Paul di Resta being two recent examples, although both of those had their early careers in open-seater before moving to GT and then F1.
So who knows? It depends what his sponsors want him to do; they're paying the bucks.
I can really recommend these junior formulae; they have some great young racers in them.
"Below is a list of phrases that might be used to describe or define Britain and what it means to be British. For each one, please indicate how important you think that word or phrase is in defining ‘Britishness’."
Britain's membership of the EU.
Very important: 8%, Fairly important: 21%, not very important: 30%, not at all important: 35%.
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/qvi85im0s2/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-140411.pdf
The daftest thing the Tory party ever did was rename itself the Conservative and Unionist Party after the UUP went in the huff in the 1970s. We are known as Tories and the first thing Cammo should do is on 20th September when the results are in is announce the Scottish Tory Party will be going its own way and that the English and Welsh Tory Parties will reconfigure to become separate parties in coalition at Westminster with the DUP/UUP as it will be the DUP/UUP who help ensure Cammo remains PM next year.
Edinbugh East
Edinburgh South
Edinburgh Central
Edinbught North (sitting MSP retiring)
Midlothian North and Mussleburgh
Cumbernauld & Kilsyth
Clydesdale
Airdrie & Shotts
Glasgow Anniesland
Clydebank and Millngavie
East Kilbride
Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse
Paisley
Renfrewshire North and West
Aberdeen Central
Turchynov orders troops into Eastern Ukraine - Ljashko
Acting President of Ukraine Oleksandr Turchynov has ordered the Armed Forces of Ukraine into the country's Eastern oblasts. The orders were announced on the Facebook page of the presidential candidate of Ukraine Oleg Ljashko .
"I have just come from meeting President Turchynov, having given him the estimates of the military forces required by the Maidan to defend Ukraine", Ljashko stated. He claimed that the President had given him orders to use all necessary Ukrainian military forces to fight those of the aggressor.
At last! We will put to the sword these saboteurs and terrorists in black! Let no one think they can encroach on the territory of Ukraine unpunished".
Loose translation of:
Турчинов дал приказ задействовать войска на востоке Украины, - Ляшко
Исполняющий обязанности Президента Украины Александр Турчинов дал приказ задействовать Вооруженные силы Украины на Востоке. Об этом в своем Facebook заявил кандидат в Президенты Украины Олег Ляшко.
"Только что вышел от Турчинова, передал ему требования Майдана к власти защищать Украину. Он сообщил, что дал команду задействовать для борьбы с агрессором Вооруженные Силы. Наконец-то! Мочить диверсантов и террористов по-черному! Чтобы ни у кого и мысли не было посягать на территорию Украины", - написал он.
Meanwhile Sky News reporters on the scene in Eastern Ukraine report no military activity from (or even presence of) Ukrainian forces under Kiev's command.
"It is the total absence of moral fibre" I enjoyed that.
You mean Farage is a cad? Surely not? Hand him the pearl-handled revolver and show him to the library, old boy.
We have Cleggie boasting of his sexploits, gay sex orgies at Westminster, and Nigel Evans as a serial groper. I think the world has changed a bit since the Raj. Ooops, I sound like a committed Kipper now.
I think it's catching. That Millband chappie ... not the right sort if you know what I mean. Now, his brother, different kettle of fish entirely. And as for Cameron, never really know what he stands for, a bit slippery. And that Bennett chappie, a colonial you know, looks more like a girl.
It's the major from Fawlty Towers, isn't it?
They must have delayed things as the first selections took place at the end of January 2014.
So far I have 7 list MSPs, 1 former MSP and 1 2011 candidate selected in those targets.
My suggestion is that he be handed over to our very own Malcolm for a short burst of SNP justice. They don't use pearl-handed revolvers in Ayrshire.
"My suggestion is that he be handed over to our very own Malcolm for a short burst of SNP justice. They don't use pearl-handed revolvers in Ayrshire."
LOL.
Sentimental claptrap, Mr. Observer. I am surprised at you. I agree that most people in Scotland haven't thought through what a yes vote will mean and most English people haven't.either. However, the latter have a genuine excuse because it won't make a happenyworth of difference to their lives. If the Scots vote to go their own way it really will be a case of, "So long and thanks for all the fish"
http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/focus/article1399405.ece
Wales is hugely economically integrated with England, with north Wales and south Wales each more connected to nearby English cities than with each other. England and Wales have been part of the same state since the 13th Century. The creation of a centralised English state happened under the Tudors, a Welsh dynasty. The country has never been unified except under a Westminster parliament.
As for Northern Ireland, is also obviously has its own long, troubled history yet is now looking mostly stable and with economic growth returning. Why would people want to stir things up there again?
The Scottish referendum is not going to be close; it's going to be a big victory for "Better Together".
And the reason for this is that turnout is going to be incredibly high. And very large numbers of "Yeah, I hate the English, but I'm a little concerned about going it alone" voters are going to come out on the day and vote to stay in. When turnout is above 85%, having incredibly committed supporters and the world's greatest GOTV operation means nothing.
Turnout will be above 85% because this is not AV. This is not Lords reform. This is not something minor like who will be your MP for the next couple of years. This is a majorly big deal that will matter for the rest of people's lives.
And therefore the attractions of the status quo will win through, and will win through big. It may very well be the wrong decision for Scotland, but this is what will happen.
*tears of laughter etc.*
I thought it would be hard to top the right-wing lunatics raising the spectre of the hanging of the scottish First Minister from a lamp post by piano wire on the previous thread, but Kudos to you sir!
Political Betting, classy as ever.
I think you're completely right. It's true that the vote will be a lot closer than it should have been, and Better Together has run the campaign very badly. But ultimately, Scots will recognize we're part of a shared nation going back centuries, with a common culture, mentality, language and heritage, and that both sides benefit from staying as one. The doom mongerers are getting way ahead of themselves.
As for Ireland, I don't think it was ever seen as integral in the way Scotland was. For decades Irish home rule had been a major discussion/controversy. Ireland sent a majority of home rule MPs to Westminster; culturally it was seen as very different, being a Catholic country in the main part; and it all happened at a time of general turmoil at the end of the First World War. In short, it was very different.
I don't think this is true of the United Kingdom and Scotland.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O3ZOKDmorj0
*chortle*
Of course being so firmly locked in a westminster bubble they don't seem to realise that even their (admittedly hilarious) attempts at doomsaying and fearmongering are easily outdone by the likes of wee Georgie Robertson and some of those in SLAB entering panic mode.
Unwittingly or not they do at least highlight the inevitable consequence of relentless fearmongering. Which will obviously be that it would cause a backlash onto the head of the likes of Cammie if it's a Yes. How could it not? The unionists either believe all the tosh about 'cataclysmic consequences', if scotland votes for Independence in a democratic vote, or even they know it's yet more risible posturing.
So why would some in Labour and SLAB be all too keen to see a backlash against Cammie going into the 2015 election campaign? It's a complete mystery!
LOL
You can't trust Labour with the economy
You can't trust Labour with the constitution
Then add as many as you like, such as
You can't trust Labour with Bankers Bonus Tax, they spend it ten times
As I said yesterday during the morning in a private sector housing area the result was genuinely astonishing with at least 80% strongly supporting no.
In the afternoon we were in a poorer area with older ex council housing and some army barracks. The result still favoured no but not by such a margin and unlike the morning we seemed to find more people who genuinely had not made up their minds or were not interested.
One of the curious features repeated from the morning were the number of people who had voted for the SNP in eithere the Scottish or local elections but were voting no. I reckon my group of 5 found at least 20 like that in each of the 2 hours stints we were canvassing.
The economy and stability were by far the largest reasons given for supporting no. Those who did support yes were less focussed on the issues and much more had their eyes on the prize.