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Carola

Struggling to load threads - me or is anyone else?

Carola

Went for the last three but who knows... a turbulent year coming up I reckon. In lots of ways.

MikeSmithson

There've been a lot of Vanilla problems

MikeSmithson

Nobody's really discussed what happens to Salmond if the polls are right and he loses the referendum?

Carola

MikeSmithson said:

There've been a lot of Vanilla problems

Ah. At least it's not my ancient laptop!

Scott_P

MikeSmithson said:

Nobody's really discussed what happens to Salmond if the polls are right and he loses the referendum?

Blames the English, and lets Nicola carry the can in Scotland

TGOHF

Piling on Liverpool now.

Cameron and Eck. The rest gawn.

dyedwoolie

Barrage balloon will go if UKIP score nil points at the GE.
Cam will go if the Tories lose power
Ed will go whatever happens, he's useless.
Clegg is as gone as a goner
Salmond goes or stays with a yes or a no.

Cam only.

Socrates

Interesting article on Germany's flimsiness regarding Russia:

http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-26988891

It's odd that East Germans look towards Russia as liberators, yet no other group that was behind the Iron Curtain does.

Socrates

SeanT said:

Salmond surely stays: if he wins indyref he will be hailed as the new William Wallace, and will relish leading the negotiations for divorce; if - more likely - he narrowly loses, the Scots will apologize for their lack of patriotism by giving him their votes in Holyrood and Westminster, and he won't retire cause he likes the free pies too much.

Cameron will go if he loses the indyref OR he loses the election, one or other of those is more likely to happen than not

Clegg is toast, whatever.

Miliband will probably stay by sneaking a plurality in 2015, Farage is just far too popular to quit.

Miliband, Farage and Salmond will probably remain; Cameron and Clegg will likely be gone.

If Labour are denied a majority, and start coalition negotiations with the Lib Dems, how would getting rid of Clegg work? Would we need to have a Lib Dem leadership election before the country can have a new government? Would an interim leader - elected by no one but his constituents - do the negotiating?

MarkSenior

Ed M will be the only one left by Jan 2016 . Cameron and Clegg will go when they lose power , Farage when UKIP win zero seats in 2015 GE and Salmond will go after the heavy Yes defeat in September .

Stark_Dawning

SeanT said:

Cameron will go if he loses the indyref OR he loses the election, one or other of those is more likely to happen than not

No idea why you think Cameron would go if he lost the indy ref. If it was ever going to be a resigning issue then he would never have arranged it in the first place.

Carnyx

No mention of the other Scottish party leaders, BTW, notably Ms Lamont, but I'd be slightly surprised if she is still here within a year - either defeated in the referendum or moved upstairs to a peerage if there is a No.

FPT:
@Stark_Dawning said:


"More complaints that the Labour party in Scotland is moribund and letting the nationalists walk all over it:

'Another worry is the state of Scottish Labour. Alistair Carmichael, the Scottish Secterary, bemoaned that it is leaderless, rudderless and soldierless and thus unable to give ‘Better Together the support the Unionist side was banking on. There is also increasing coalition frustration with the intensely tribal way in which Scottish Labour is behaving.'

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/james-forsyth/2014/04/cabinet-concern-over-the-state-of-the-unionist-campaign-in-scotland-laid-bare/

I must say I'm astonished by what has materialized over recent months. The myth we have long been fed in England was that Scottish Labour were the toughest and most ruthless political street fighters in the business. What's happened? Did they become arrogant and complacent? Have they had the stuffing knocked out of them by the SNP? Can someone please explain the demise of Scottish Labour?"

They don't like being publicly in bed with Tories and their LD chums? Publicly obeying what Tories and LDs yell at them to do? They don't want to get voted out of their nice MP and MSP constituencies as a result?

Seriously. Is there any better reason?

I can't think what else it can be. Unless there is some secret weapon, hundreds of V-1s being readied for another strafing session a la Dambusters.

It may be relevant that not many LDs and Tories are willing to put their heads above the parapet and actually speak in public and engage with the Yes side and the voters, as opposed to visiting the trenches for a few moments and then heading back to the chateau again. But chateau generals are apt to end up with mutinies, and at the moment one might be forgiven for wondering a little bit if SLAB are beginning to sound like the poilus post-Verdun, with Nivelle leading the No Campaign, and the officers frightened of getting fragged* if they push their rank and file too far.

*Anachronism, I know, but I don't know the original expression en francais ...

Carnyx

Stark_Dawning said:

SeanT said:

Cameron will go if he loses the indyref OR he loses the election, one or other of those is more likely to happen than not

No idea why you think Cameron would go if he lost the indy ref. If it was ever going to be a resigning issue then he would never have arranged it in the first place.

Genuine question (out of interest): do you mean he should have done a Castilian and said No, you can't have a referendum?

JosiasJessop

Miliband's safe. Labour don't have a great history of getting rid of their leaders, however hopeless they may be. Indeed, they've gone the other way in the past; removing the highly electorally successful Blair for the pathetically unsuccessful Brown.

Labour are almost certain to avoid a heavy defeat in 2015, and will probably win. If there is a narrow defeat, Miliband carries the Brownites with him. He won't resign and will instead fight on, as Kinnock did.

As for Cameron: I cannot see him resigning if the Scots vote for independence. If he loses the 2015 GE in such a way he cannot form a government, then he'll resign. Would he really want to go through the process of rebuilding the party all over again?

And before the UKIPpers salivate at the thought: whoever replaces Cameron will be from a centrist background, not a right-wing one. The future lies that way, and most of the Tory MPs know that.

peter_from_putney

MarkSenior said:

Ed M will be the only one left by Jan 2016 . Cameron and Clegg will go when they lose power , Farage when UKIP win zero seats in 2015 GE and Salmond will go after the heavy Yes defeat in September .

Sounds about right, although I believe Salmond will only go of his own choosing, i.e should he have something more interesting to do.

Shame about Cameron, he was nearly a good PM but unfortunately he possesses a couple of fatal flaws, one being his inability to sack ministers when necessary as recently exemplified but also evident on several previous occasions.

isam

SeanT said:

Salmond surely stays: if he wins indyref he will be hailed as the new William Wallace, and will relish leading the negotiations for divorce; if - more likely - he narrowly loses, the Scots will apologize for their lack of patriotism by giving him their votes in Holyrood and Westminster, and he won't retire cause he likes the free pies too much.

Cameron will go if he loses the indyref OR he loses the election, one or other of those is more likely to happen than not

Clegg is toast, whatever.

Miliband will probably stay by sneaking a plurality in 2015, Farage is just far too popular to quit.

Miliband, Farage and Salmond will probably remain; Cameron and Clegg will likely be gone.

If I were you I'd take a Sunday stroll to Kentish Town's William Hill shop which I believe is opposite Kentish Delight Kebab House, and back Clegg NOT to be LD leader on Jan 1st 2016 at 8/11

Stark_Dawning

Carnyx said:

Stark_Dawning said:

SeanT said:

Cameron will go if he loses the indyref OR he loses the election, one or other of those is more likely to happen than not

No idea why you think Cameron would go if he lost the indy ref. If it was ever going to be a resigning issue then he would never have arranged it in the first place.

Genuine question (out of interest): do you mean he should have done a Castilian and said No, you can't have a referendum?

Remember the background to all this. The SNP were threatening to do their own referendum which, though completely illegal, would have been hugely divisive and conducted on the SNP's own terms. Cameron would have been entirely within his rights not to bother with a referendum, but that would have just stored up problems when the SNP went ahead with theirs.

Easterross

Afternoon all, and interesting poll.
David Cameron will only resign if he loses the GE which he wont do. The Indy Ref is irrelevant apart from the prospect of denying Labour its largest group of MPs from future GEs. If Cameron wins and decides he needs LibDem support, he might decide Clegg remains whether all LibDems like it or not. I cannot see Ed going unless he does indeed prove to be Michael Foot Mark II. He is more likely to be Neil Kinnock Mark II and cling on by his fingernails.
I doubt Farage will last. When UKIP bombs at the GE he will either go or be toppled by Nuttall.
Eck will only go when Eck is ready. He will hand over to Nicola Sturgeon but I would expect him to lead the Nats into the 2016 election and then hand over in 2017 when he will have been FM for a decade.

Carnyx

Stark_Dawning said:

Carnyx said:

Stark_Dawning said:

SeanT said:

Cameron will go if he loses the indyref OR he loses the election, one or other of those is more likely to happen than not

No idea why you think Cameron would go if he lost the indy ref. If it was ever going to be a resigning issue then he would never have arranged it in the first place.

Genuine question (out of interest): do you mean he should have done a Castilian and said No, you can't have a referendum?

Remember the background to all this. The SNP were threatening to do their own referendum which, though completely illegal, would have been hugely divisive and conducted on the SNP's own terms. Cameron would have been entirely within his rights not to bother with a referendum, but that would have just stored up problems when the SNP went ahead with theirs.

Thanks, just wondered. I'd be slightly surprised if Mr C survives a Yes vote, not in itself - after all he did do the democratic thing (and avoided an immediate tactical blunder, of course) - but in the way some of his opponents may use it as an excuse. But that is more to do with internal party politics.

peter_from_putney

isam said:

SeanT said:

Salmond surely stays: if he wins indyref he will be hailed as the new William Wallace, and will relish leading the negotiations for divorce; if - more likely - he narrowly loses, the Scots will apologize for their lack of patriotism by giving him their votes in Holyrood and Westminster, and he won't retire cause he likes the free pies too much.

Cameron will go if he loses the indyref OR he loses the election, one or other of those is more likely to happen than not

Clegg is toast, whatever.

Miliband will probably stay by sneaking a plurality in 2015, Farage is just far too popular to quit.

Miliband, Farage and Salmond will probably remain; Cameron and Clegg will likely be gone.

If I were you I'd take a Sunday stroll to Kentish Town's William Hill shop which I believe is opposite Kentish Delight Kebab House, and back Clegg NOT to be LD leader on Jan 1st 2016 at 8/11

Very sound advice imho, even for a non-gambler such as yourself SeanT, provided you're prepared to wait 20 months for your winnings.

Stark_Dawning

Easterross said:

I doubt Farage will last. When UKIP bombs at the GE he will either go or be toppled by Nuttall.

Yes, I'd go along with that. Farage's bar-room cheekiness and irreverence - hitherto regarded as UKIP's greatest selling point - will be deemed insufficiently serious and he'll be axed.

Morris_Dancer

Good afternoon, everyone.

I don't think Cameron should (let alone has to) resign if the Scots vote to leave.

isam

Looking at the poll results it seems like another one that's great for UKIP and bad for the LDs

dyedwoolie

Just pondering on the practicality of a yes vote and the Westminster set up.
Would Cameron grant immediate Devo Max and disband the Scottish MP quota at Westminster for 2015 , pending conclusion of negotiation and handover? Or would some deal be reached restricting the voting power of the 57? Or will it be business as usual with the 57 to go on Independence Day?
How would Westminster look in the period between yes and rUK/.Indy Scotland?

peter_from_putney

peter_from_putney said:

isam said:

SeanT said:

Salmond surely stays: if he wins indyref he will be hailed as the new William Wallace, and will relish leading the negotiations for divorce; if - more likely - he narrowly loses, the Scots will apologize for their lack of patriotism by giving him their votes in Holyrood and Westminster, and he won't retire cause he likes the free pies too much.

Cameron will go if he loses the indyref OR he loses the election, one or other of those is more likely to happen than not

Clegg is toast, whatever.

Miliband will probably stay by sneaking a plurality in 2015, Farage is just far too popular to quit.

Miliband, Farage and Salmond will probably remain; Cameron and Clegg will likely be gone.

If I were you I'd take a Sunday stroll to Kentish Town's William Hill shop which I believe is opposite Kentish Delight Kebab House, and back Clegg NOT to be LD leader on Jan 1st 2016 at 8/11

Very sound advice imho, even for a non-gambler such as yourself SeanT, provided you're prepared to wait 20 months for your winnings.

In reality those nice people at Hills are likely to pay out much earlier if, as expected, the LDs lose around 40% of their MPs on 7 May 2015.

JosiasJessop

Way off-topic:

Over the last couple of years (indeed, as long as I've been on PB) I've been championing a young lad who was racing in the Ginetta Junior championship called Harry Woodhead. He won last year's championship at a canter, and this year has moved up to the Ginetta Supercup. Sadly he's had two DNF's out of his three races so far this year. Mind you, he's 16 and racing against several 30- and 40- year olds.

Anyway, it turns out there's a children's program featuring four of last year Juniors crop, including Woodhead. It starts tomorrow morning. I've no idea how dumbed down it will be for kids, but it might be of interest to some of you in PBland.
http://www.thecheckeredflag.co.uk/2014/04/ginetta-juniors-star-new-cbbc-series/

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Woolie, the 57 would have to be axed sharpish. We certainly couldn't risk Scottish MPs on the UK's side of the negotiating table after the 2015 General Election.

Any party (in Westminster) objecting would look like they're too soft on the Scots, and more concerned with the Scottish than the British interest (if Yes wins then obviously those two things diverge at once). That would be very bad for the election.

And again, when I try and submit, the first effort centres everything. Vanilla is silly nowadays.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Jessop, I seem to recall you mentioning him. D'you reckon he's an F1 prospect?

peter_from_putney

Stark_Dawning said:

Easterross said:

I doubt Farage will last. When UKIP bombs at the GE he will either go or be toppled by Nuttall.

Yes, I'd go along with that. Farage's bar-room cheekiness and irreverence - hitherto regarded as UKIP's greatest selling point - will be deemed insufficiently serious and he'll be axed.

I agree - he was just plain awful on HIGNFU this week, subjecting himself to a right royal mauling by Hislop & Co.

dyedwoolie

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Woolie, the 57 would have to be axed sharpish. We certainly couldn't risk Scottish MPs on the UK's side of the negotiating table after the 2015 General Election.

Any party (in Westminster) objecting would look like they're too soft on the Scots, and more concerned with the Scottish than the British interest (if Yes wins then obviously those two things diverge at once). That would be very bad for the election.

And again, when I try and submit, the first effort centres everything. Vanilla is silly nowadays.

So grant Devo Max, Salmond calls a GE, the resulting parliament negotiates with rump Westminster.
Can't see the UK getting away with no Scottish representation and no Devo Max pre-independence. Totally undemocratic.

surbiton

dyedwoolie said:

Just pondering on the practicality of a yes vote and the Westminster set up.
Would Cameron grant immediate Devo Max and disband the Scottish MP quota at Westminster for 2015 , pending conclusion of negotiation and handover? Or would some deal be reached restricting the voting power of the 57? Or will it be business as usual with the 57 to go on Independence Day?
How would Westminster look in the period between yes and rUK/.Indy Scotland?

I didn't realise Cameron had the votes to do anything. The LD's are over represented in Scotland. I can't see them agreeing to anything. The usual stuff about not voting on English matters.

Theuniondivvie

Carnyx said:

No mention of the other Scottish party leaders, BTW, notably Ms Lamont, but I'd be slightly surprised if she is still here within a year - either defeated in the referendum or moved upstairs to a peerage if there is a No.

FPT:
@Stark_Dawning said:

"I must say I'm astonished by what has materialized over recent months. The myth we have long been fed in England was that Scottish Labour were the toughest and most ruthless political street fighters in the business. What's happened? Did they become arrogant and complacent? Have they had the stuffing knocked out of them by the SNP? Can someone please explain the demise of Scottish Labour?"

Unfortunately from the Union's pov the biggest believers in the Scottish Labour myth are themselves. They haven't noticed that many of the idealists and activists who would turn out to fight the Tories, Poll Tax or Bedroom Tax have seeped away to the SSP or Labour for Indy. I suspect a significant proportion of current Labour supporters who would naturally work for the party are among the 25-30% who (according to polls) will vote for Indy. In the last Holyrood GE I noticed a fair few Labour activists from down south; that's fair enough in the context of 'One Nation' Labour, but if SLAB really were a ferment of activism, one would hardly think it necessary.

surbiton

MarkSenior said:

Ed M will be the only one left by Jan 2016 . Cameron and Clegg will go when they lose power , Farage when UKIP win zero seats in 2015 GE and Salmond will go after the heavy Yes defeat in September .

Agreed. But I think Salmond will hang around to negotiate some form of Devo Max which the Tories would agree to do, in exchange of reduced Scottish Westminster representation. Labour and the Lib Dems obviously would not agree. After all, why should Scotland be under represented in Foreign, Finance and Defence matters ?

Farage [ I pronounce it the English way, not the French one ! ] will stay. He enjoys the limelight. As the Tories choose a more centrist leader to try to win the following term, UKIP's chance actually will increase, perhaps with a defection or two.

dyedwoolie

surbiton said:

dyedwoolie said:

Just pondering on the practicality of a yes vote and the Westminster set up.
Would Cameron grant immediate Devo Max and disband the Scottish MP quota at Westminster for 2015 , pending conclusion of negotiation and handover? Or would some deal be reached restricting the voting power of the 57? Or will it be business as usual with the 57 to go on Independence Day?
How would Westminster look in the period between yes and rUK/.Indy Scotland?

I didn't realise Cameron had the votes to do anything. The LD's are over represented in Scotland. I can't see them agreeing to anything. The usual stuff about not voting on English matters.

Well he leads a coalition with a majority, when I say Cam I mean 'the gvt'

AveryLP

Stark_Dawning said:

Easterross said:

I doubt Farage will last. When UKIP bombs at the GE he will either go or be toppled by Nuttall.

Yes, I'd go along with that. Farage's bar-room cheekiness and irreverence - hitherto regarded as UKIP's greatest selling point - will be deemed insufficiently serious and he'll be axed.

It is not just "the bar-room cheekiness and irreverence". It is the total absence of moral fibre.

I have just been discussing College over a fine Bourgogne Passetoutgrains and roast chump of pork.

A favourite guest had watched Friday's HIGNFY. She noted that College's denial of his 7-times-a-night-romp with a Latvian was far more vehement than his obfuscatory response to claims that he had an affair with his publicity girl. She was most scathing and predicted that scandal will befall College long before the electors get their chance.

Her objection was not to College's adultery - she is herself a serial adulteress - but to his brazen and priapic boasting. Here he is on that unfortunate encounter with 'Liga Nord':

"I met her in a pub and accepted her invitation home for a drink. She was sleek and seductive and I will not splutter that after the first bottle I would necessarily have behaved like Sir Galahad."

I predict College's vicarious appeal to the over-65's is certain to be short-lived.

AlastairMeeks

MikeSmithson said:

Nobody's really discussed what happens to Salmond if the polls are right and he loses the referendum?

In my end of year predictions last year, I predicted that Alex Salmond would resign on losing the referendum. He has a hinterland, and has already stood down from the SNP leadership once.

TOPPING

Cam looks pretty foolish if he stays beyond an indyref Yes. Not to say he won't.

He looks fine if he gets a Brexit No, which will itself mean he is PM.

Can he stay on after a narrow defeat to Lab in 2015? Regrettably I think not. Cons will think (hugely mistakenly) that they have given this left-wing soft-centre mumbo-jumbo a go and it hasn't worked. This would be a huge mistake as Cam has been in a coalition.

Where they may have more (but still insufficient) grounds is to ask why he didn't lead the Cons to an OM in 2010 and the blame for that will come out if he loses GE2015. Was it the largest swing in recent times, however? I believe it was. Did he nevertheless lose the election when people were gagging to get rid of the incumbents? Yep.

Clegg? He will become the safe coalition hands if Lab look like they will need to form one and if the LDs have stayed with him for the past five years it would make little sense to get rid of him if there is another Cons coalition. If there is no coalition then yes they might as well get rid of him.

If Lab win then EdM gets to wreak his havoc on the country. If they lose, it will be narrowly, and Lab might stick with him. They have never been slickly efficient in getting rid of leaders.

Farage? Staying.

Salmond? Agree with SeanT - either he loses indyref but Scots feel embarrassed at having voted No, or he wins and heads off into the sunset with his country. Then again, don't rule out a Winston save the country lose his job reaction. Although it is doubtful.

AndyJS

The Sunday Times (page 11) has proof that the expansion of tertiary education has been a disaster:

"A fifth of those with degrees said they were proud to be British, compared with 59% who have no qualifications."

TCPoliticalBetting

I have just played back Sunday politics (having been out) and what dire 2 people are the Lab Leader of their MEPs Howatt and the Deputy Leader of the LD MEPs Ludford. Distinctly D level achievers. The UKIP spokeschap O'Flynn and the Conservative's Ldr Kamal were several levels above the other 2.

Easterross

There are 59 not 57 Westminster Constituencies in Scotland. If as I expect, Scotland votes YES in September, Cameron will come under considerable pressure to put a Parliament Act bill before the Commons suspending the Scottish Constituencies as from Dissolution next March. He could come to an arrangement with Eck that Scotland be represented until Independence at Westminster and I personally would favour the 55 (following death of Margo MacDonald) regional MSPs doing that for a year or so until the actual separation is completed.

If Scotland does vote YES in September then we will see a mad rush and secret meetings with offers of Peerages on all sides of the house to make way for the likes of Douglas and Danny Alexander, Jim Murphy given that few current MSPs would be willing to stand aside for them. Ironically given the mauling both Labour and the LibDems got from the SNP in 2011, each of these Westminster "big beasts" could fight a constituency seat in 2016 if they want to go to Holyrood given how many their parties lost in 2011. David Mundell was an MSP before becoming an MP so he could easily return to being a regional MSP.

JosiasJessop

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Jessop, I seem to recall you mentioning him. D'you reckon he's an F1 prospect?

He'll have to make a decision whether to go into tin-top or open-seater racing. Personally, I think he's heading down the GT route; Formula Renault might have been a more sensible move if he wanted to go into open-seater.

However, F1 drivers can be a success after driving tin-tops; Webber and Paul di Resta being two recent examples, although both of those had their early careers in open-seater before moving to GT and then F1.

So who knows? It depends what his sponsors want him to do; they're paying the bucks.

I can really recommend these junior formulae; they have some great young racers in them.

Easterross

All this talk of Vanilla. I was starting to wonder if PB is being sponsored by the expense account of some nameless senior Tory official who allegedly invited some young men to view his etchings at some conference or other.

JosiasJessop

TOPPING said:

Cam looks pretty foolish if he stays beyond an indyref Yes. Not to say he won't.

(snip)

I'm not sure Cameron will look foolish if Yes win. He was left with a difficult choice, and went with the democratic option of letting Scotland have their say. His other options were much worse.

MikeK

New logo for the Tories:

The Tory's new emblem!!! pic.twitter.com/j1hQTB4PK8

— Ray Kempson (@Exnorthseatiger) April 13, 2014

TOPPING

JosiasJessop said:

TOPPING said:

Cam looks pretty foolish if he stays beyond an indyref Yes. Not to say he won't.

(snip)

I'm not sure Cameron will look foolish if Yes win. He was left with a difficult choice, and went with the democratic option of letting Scotland have their say. His other options were much worse.

Agree but it is the Cons & Unionist Party and part of the United Kingdom will have said up yours to it. Analagous to not having persuaded enough of the country to vote for him in the GE.

AndreaParma_82

Richard Howitt is not the leader of Labour MEPs. The leader of EPLP is Glenis Willmott

TCPoliticalBetting said:

I have just played back Sunday politics (having been out) and what dire 2 people are the Lab Leader of their MEPs Howatt and the Deputy Leader of the LD MEPs Ludford. Distinctly D level achievers. The UKIP spokeschap O'Flynn and the Conservative's Ldr Kamal were several levels above the other 2.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Jessop, alas, I spend enough time on F1 that I don't want to get into any other sort of motorsport.

Theuniondivvie

Easterross said:

Ironically given the mauling both Labour and the LibDems got from the SNP in 2011, each of these Westminster "big beasts" could fight a constituency seat in 2016 if they want to go to Holyrood given how many their parties lost in 2011. David Mundell was an MSP before becoming an MP so he could easily return to being a regional MSP.

Haven't SLAB already selected their candidates for the next Holyrood GE? Don't think there's much love lost between Brewer's Green & Labour North Britain at the moment, some carpetbagging big beasts wouldn't improve it.

anotherDave

Just looking at some of the additional questions in the Sunday Times YouGov.

"Below is a list of phrases that might be used to describe or define Britain and what it means to be British. For each one, please indicate how important you think that word or phrase is in defining ‘Britishness’."

Britain's membership of the EU.
Very important: 8%, Fairly important: 21%, not very important: 30%, not at all important: 35%.

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/qvi85im0s2/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-140411.pdf

Easterross

Mr Uniondivvie indeed I understand that to be the case but you know those socialists, dangle a gong in front of them and they are putty in your hands. Wee Ed could offer Johann the chance to become Baroness Pollok making way for her bestest the Curren wumman. Jacqui Baillie could be ennobled to make way for wee Duggie or the Murph.

peter_from_putney

AveryLP said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Easterross said:

I doubt Farage will last. When UKIP bombs at the GE he will either go or be toppled by Nuttall.

Yes, I'd go along with that. Farage's bar-room cheekiness and irreverence - hitherto regarded as UKIP's greatest selling point - will be deemed insufficiently serious and he'll be axed.

It is not just "the bar-room cheekiness and irreverence". It is the total absence of moral fibre.

I have just been discussing College over a fine Bourgogne Passetoutgrains and roast chump of pork.

A favourite guest had watched Friday's HIGNFY. She noted that College's denial of his 7-times-a-night-romp with a Latvian was far more vehement than his obfuscatory response to claims that he had an affair with his publicity girl. She was most scathing and predicted that scandal will befall College long before the electors get their chance.

Her objection was not to College's adultery - she is herself a serial adulteress - but to his brazen and priapic boasting. Here he is on that unfortunate encounter with 'Liga Nord':

"I met her in a pub and accepted her invitation home for a drink. She was sleek and seductive and I will not splutter that after the first bottle I would necessarily have behaved like Sir Galahad."

I predict College's vicarious appeal to the over-65's is certain to be short-lived.

It seems surprising that the media in general and the Daily Mail in particular have not as yet had a serious go at him.

Easterross

TOPPING said:

JosiasJessop said:

TOPPING said:

Cam looks pretty foolish if he stays beyond an indyref Yes. Not to say he won't.

(snip)

I'm not sure Cameron will look foolish if Yes win. He was left with a difficult choice, and went with the democratic option of letting Scotland have their say. His other options were much worse.

Agree but it is the Cons & Unionist Party and part of the United Kingdom will have said up yours to it. Analagous to not having persuaded enough of the country to vote for him in the GE.

Cameron is going nowhere. When YES wins, it will be Alistair Darling who is blamed and he will be announcing his retirement on 19th September anyway to go and count his banking directorships. Interestingly no sign of Gordon "arch trougher" Brown standing down as he surely will next year.

The daftest thing the Tory party ever did was rename itself the Conservative and Unionist Party after the UUP went in the huff in the 1970s. We are known as Tories and the first thing Cammo should do is on 20th September when the results are in is announce the Scottish Tory Party will be going its own way and that the English and Welsh Tory Parties will reconfigure to become separate parties in coalition at Westminster with the DUP/UUP as it will be the DUP/UUP who help ensure Cammo remains PM next year.

AndreaParma_82

Not all. The target constituencies where they have selected are

Edinbugh East
Edinburgh South
Edinburgh Central
Edinbught North (sitting MSP retiring)
Midlothian North and Mussleburgh
Cumbernauld & Kilsyth
Clydesdale
Airdrie & Shotts
Glasgow Anniesland
Clydebank and Millngavie
East Kilbride
Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse
Paisley
Renfrewshire North and West
Aberdeen Central

Theuniondivvie said:

Easterross said:

Ironically given the mauling both Labour and the LibDems got from the SNP in 2011, each of these Westminster "big beasts" could fight a constituency seat in 2016 if they want to go to Holyrood given how many their parties lost in 2011. David Mundell was an MSP before becoming an MP so he could easily return to being a regional MSP.

Haven't SLAB already selected their candidates for the next Holyrood GE? Don't think there's much love lost between Brewer's Green & Labour North Britain at the moment, some carpetbagging big beasts wouldn't improve it.

AveryLP

Acting Ukrainian President Turchynov uses the Facebook page of a fellow Presidential candidate to order the Armed Forces of the Ukraine into the country's eastern oblasts.

Turchynov orders troops into Eastern Ukraine - Ljashko

Acting President of Ukraine Oleksandr Turchynov has ordered the Armed Forces of Ukraine into the country's Eastern oblasts. The orders were announced on the Facebook page of the presidential candidate of Ukraine Oleg Ljashko .

"I have just come from meeting President Turchynov, having given him the estimates of the military forces required by the Maidan to defend Ukraine", Ljashko stated. He claimed that the President had given him orders to use all necessary Ukrainian military forces to fight those of the aggressor.

At last! We will put to the sword these saboteurs and terrorists in black! Let no one think they can encroach on the territory of Ukraine unpunished".

Loose translation of:

Турчинов дал приказ задействовать войска на востоке Украины, - Ляшко

Исполняющий обязанности Президента Украины Александр Турчинов дал приказ задействовать Вооруженные силы Украины на Востоке. Об этом в своем Facebook заявил кандидат в Президенты Украины Олег Ляшко.

"Только что вышел от Турчинова, передал ему требования Майдана к власти защищать Украину. Он сообщил, что дал команду задействовать для борьбы с агрессором Вооруженные Силы. Наконец-то! Мочить диверсантов и террористов по-черному! Чтобы ни у кого и мысли не было посягать на территорию Украины", - написал он.

Meanwhile Sky News reporters on the scene in Eastern Ukraine report no military activity from (or even presence of) Ukrainian forces under Kiev's command.

CD13

ALP,

"It is the total absence of moral fibre" I enjoyed that.

You mean Farage is a cad? Surely not? Hand him the pearl-handled revolver and show him to the library, old boy.

We have Cleggie boasting of his sexploits, gay sex orgies at Westminster, and Nigel Evans as a serial groper. I think the world has changed a bit since the Raj. Ooops, I sound like a committed Kipper now.

SouthamObserver

JosiasJessop said:

TOPPING said:

Cam looks pretty foolish if he stays beyond an indyref Yes. Not to say he won't.

(snip)

I'm not sure Cameron will look foolish if Yes win. He was left with a difficult choice, and went with the democratic option of letting Scotland have their say. His other options were much worse.

He'll be remembered as the PM who lost the UK; the man in power when a country that changed the world ceased to exist. He'll look a lot worse than foolish. I don't think many of us outside Scotland - and perhaps not even that many up there - have begun to think through the full implications of a Yes. It will be one of the most momentous moments in our history. The country we were all born into and are citizens of will disappear. That's a pretty big deal.

Theuniondivvie

AndreaParma_82 said:

Not all. The target constituencies where they have selected are

Edinbugh East
Edinburgh South
Edinburgh Central
Edinbught North (sitting MSP retiring)
Midlothian North and Mussleburgh
Cumbernauld & Kilsyth
Clydesdale
Airdrie & Shotts
Glasgow Anniesland
Clydebank and Millngavie
East Kilbride
Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse
Paisley
Renfrewshire North and West
Aberdeen Central

Theuniondivvie said:

Easterross said:

Ironically given the mauling both Labour and the LibDems got from the SNP in 2011, each of these Westminster "big beasts" could fight a constituency seat in 2016 if they want to go to Holyrood given how many their parties lost in 2011. David Mundell was an MSP before becoming an MP so he could easily return to being a regional MSP.

Haven't SLAB already selected their candidates for the next Holyrood GE? Don't think there's much love lost between Brewer's Green & Labour North Britain at the moment, some carpetbagging big beasts wouldn't improve it.

Thanks Andrea. According to the piece I read it was supposed to be all done and dusted by January, maybe they're hedging their bets.

CD13

ALP,

I think it's catching. That Millband chappie ... not the right sort if you know what I mean. Now, his brother, different kettle of fish entirely. And as for Cameron, never really know what he stands for, a bit slippery. And that Bennett chappie, a colonial you know, looks more like a girl.

It's the major from Fawlty Towers, isn't it?

SouthamObserver

surbiton said:

MarkSenior said:

Ed M will be the only one left by Jan 2016 . Cameron and Clegg will go when they lose power , Farage when UKIP win zero seats in 2015 GE and Salmond will go after the heavy Yes defeat in September .

Agreed. But I think Salmond will hang around to negotiate some form of Devo Max which the Tories would agree to do, in exchange of reduced Scottish Westminster representation. Labour and the Lib Dems obviously would not agree. After all, why should Scotland be under represented in Foreign, Finance and Defence matters ?

Farage [ I pronounce it the English way, not the French one ! ] will stay. He enjoys the limelight. As the Tories choose a more centrist leader to try to win the following term, UKIP's chance actually will increase, perhaps with a defection or two.

Devomax would be a complicated affair, affecting all parts of the UK. It will take a while to sort out and would probably have to be ratified by referendum in all four countries.

Stark_Dawning

SouthamObserver said:

JosiasJessop said:

TOPPING said:

Cam looks pretty foolish if he stays beyond an indyref Yes. Not to say he won't.

(snip)

I'm not sure Cameron will look foolish if Yes win. He was left with a difficult choice, and went with the democratic option of letting Scotland have their say. His other options were much worse.

He'll be remembered as the PM who lost the UK; the man in power when a country that changed the world ceased to exist. He'll look a lot worse than foolish. I don't think many of us outside Scotland - and perhaps not even that many up there - have begun to think through the full implications of a Yes. It will be one of the most momentous moments in our history. The country we were all born into and are citizens of will disappear. That's a pretty big deal.

So are you saying there should never have been a referendum? Or that one should only have been called if No were guaranteed to win?

AveryLP

Easterross said:

TOPPING said:

JosiasJessop said:

TOPPING said:

Cam looks pretty foolish if he stays beyond an indyref Yes. Not to say he won't.

(snip)

I'm not sure Cameron will look foolish if Yes win. He was left with a difficult choice, and went with the democratic option of letting Scotland have their say. His other options were much worse.

... Interestingly no sign of Gordon "arch trougher" Brown standing down as he surely will next year.

...

Easterross

Perhaps Gordon is delaying his constituency retirement to the period when the NEC can parachute their chosen candidate into the seat?

He may have an agreement with Tony to offer his seat to young Euan if the selectors of Bootle fail to oblige.

Socrates

SouthamObserver said:

JosiasJessop said:

TOPPING said:

Cam looks pretty foolish if he stays beyond an indyref Yes. Not to say he won't.

(snip)

I'm not sure Cameron will look foolish if Yes win. He was left with a difficult choice, and went with the democratic option of letting Scotland have their say. His other options were much worse.

He'll be remembered as the PM who lost the UK; the man in power when a country that changed the world ceased to exist. He'll look a lot worse than foolish. I don't think many of us outside Scotland - and perhaps not even that many up there - have begun to think through the full implications of a Yes. It will be one of the most momentous moments in our history. The country we were all born into and are citizens of will disappear. That's a pretty big deal.

Given that the two Kingdoms that formed the UK were Great Britain and Ireland, why would David Cameron have "lost" the UK for losing less than 10% of Great Britain, any more than Lloyd George, who lost the majority of Ireland? The name could be modified (perhaps the United Kingdom of Southern Britain and Northern Ireland) but the UK would certainly continue to exist.

CarlottaVance

SouthamObserver said:

JosiasJessop said:

TOPPING said:

Cam looks pretty foolish if he stays beyond an indyref Yes. Not to say he won't.

(snip)

I'm not sure Cameron will look foolish if Yes win. He was left with a difficult choice, and went with the democratic option of letting Scotland have their say. His other options were much worse.

The country we were all born into and are citizens of will disappear. That's a pretty big deal.

Not if you believe Eck.......

AndreaParma_82

@Theuniondivvie

They must have delayed things as the first selections took place at the end of January 2014.

So far I have 7 list MSPs, 1 former MSP and 1 2011 candidate selected in those targets.

AveryLP

CD13 said:

ALP,

"It is the total absence of moral fibre" I enjoyed that.

You mean Farage is a cad? Surely not? Hand him the pearl-handled revolver and show him to the library, old boy.

We have Cleggie boasting of his sexploits, gay sex orgies at Westminster, and Nigel Evans as a serial groper. I think the world has changed a bit since the Raj. Ooops, I sound like a committed Kipper now.

After College's effrontery in wearing an old school tie on TV to which he was not entitled, he doesn't deserve the option of a 'gentleman's exit'.

My suggestion is that he be handed over to our very own Malcolm for a short burst of SNP justice. They don't use pearl-handed revolvers in Ayrshire.

HYUFD

Surbiton If Cameron loses, the next Tory leader will be a rightwinger, perhaps even Sajid

Socrates

anotherDave said:

Just looking at some of the additional questions in the Sunday Times YouGov.

"Below is a list of phrases that might be used to describe or define Britain and what it means to be British. For each one, please indicate how important you think that word or phrase is in defining ‘Britishness’."

Britain's membership of the EU.
Very important: 8%, Fairly important: 21%, not very important: 30%, not at all important: 35%.

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/qvi85im0s2/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-140411.pdf

The monarchy get 43% very important, versus just 31% and 33% for the Common law and parliament respectively. Ugh. If only people here valued the historical principles this country was built on the way the Americans do for theirs. What share of the public even know what the Glorious Revolution is? Instead we're focused on the celebrity worship of one not particularly impressive family.

CD13

ALP,

"My suggestion is that he be handed over to our very own Malcolm for a short burst of SNP justice. They don't use pearl-handed revolvers in Ayrshire."

LOL.

SouthamObserver

Stark_Dawning said:

SouthamObserver said:

JosiasJessop said:

TOPPING said:

Cam looks pretty foolish if he stays beyond an indyref Yes. Not to say he won't.

(snip)

I'm not sure Cameron will look foolish if Yes win. He was left with a difficult choice, and went with the democratic option of letting Scotland have their say. His other options were much worse.

He'll be remembered as the PM who lost the UK; the man in power when a country that changed the world ceased to exist. He'll look a lot worse than foolish. I don't think many of us outside Scotland - and perhaps not even that many up there - have begun to think through the full implications of a Yes. It will be one of the most momentous moments in our history. The country we were all born into and are citizens of will disappear. That's a pretty big deal.

So are you saying there should never have been a referendum? Or that one should only have been called if No were guaranteed to win?

I think he did the right thing. But he'll still be the PM who lost his country. That does not happen every day. In fact it has not happened in western Europe since WW2. It would be a very big deal and one that will have considerable repercussions, not least the extended divorce negotiations that will dominate our politics for many a long year subsequently.

SouthamObserver

CarlottaVance said:

SouthamObserver said:

JosiasJessop said:

TOPPING said:

Cam looks pretty foolish if he stays beyond an indyref Yes. Not to say he won't.

(snip)

I'm not sure Cameron will look foolish if Yes win. He was left with a difficult choice, and went with the democratic option of letting Scotland have their say. His other options were much worse.

The country we were all born into and are citizens of will disappear. That's a pretty big deal.

Not if you believe Eck.......

Eck doesn't believe Eck, so why should I?

HYUFD

Topping Ed is dead if he loses with the left all to himself apart from the odd Green and a split right. Chukka and Yvette will fight it out for the crown, in an Obama v Hillary contest, with Andy Burnham on their heels as the pretty boy John Edwards trying one more time (without the scandal)

Socrates

SouthamObserver said:

Stark_Dawning said:

SouthamObserver said:

JosiasJessop said:

TOPPING said:

Cam looks pretty foolish if he stays beyond an indyref Yes. Not to say he won't.

(snip)

I'm not sure Cameron will look foolish if Yes win. He was left with a difficult choice, and went with the democratic option of letting Scotland have their say. His other options were much worse.

He'll be remembered as the PM who lost the UK; the man in power when a country that changed the world ceased to exist. He'll look a lot worse than foolish. I don't think many of us outside Scotland - and perhaps not even that many up there - have begun to think through the full implications of a Yes. It will be one of the most momentous moments in our history. The country we were all born into and are citizens of will disappear. That's a pretty big deal.

So are you saying there should never have been a referendum? Or that one should only have been called if No were guaranteed to win?

I think he did the right thing. But he'll still be the PM who lost his country. That does not happen every day. In fact it has not happened in western Europe since WW2. It would be a very big deal and one that will have considerable repercussions, not least the extended divorce negotiations that will dominate our politics for many a long year subsequently.

I'm no Cameron fan, but he wouldn't have lost his country. The UK will still exist and will likely still use the same flag. If Wales and Northern Ireland left too, you'd have a point, but that's not happening under Cameron.

HYUFD

Farage should be OK, and could well win the Euro elections and be UKIP's only MP in 2015. Salmond may lose the referendum, but he should have a base of at least 40% Yes whatever and Swinney was a disaster when he was leader and Sturgeon is not yet ready. If there is another hung parliament, Clegg will again be kingmaker, if either Labour or the Tories win outright he will go, probably replaced by Tim Farron

HurstLlama

"... The country we were all born into and are citizens of will disappear... "

Sentimental claptrap, Mr. Observer. I am surprised at you. I agree that most people in Scotland haven't thought through what a yes vote will mean and most English people haven't.either. However, the latter have a genuine excuse because it won't make a happenyworth of difference to their lives. If the Scots vote to go their own way it really will be a case of, "So long and thanks for all the fish"

SouthamObserver

Socrates said:

SouthamObserver said:

Stark_Dawning said:

SouthamObserver said:

JosiasJessop said:

TOPPING said:

Cam looks pretty foolish if he stays beyond an indyref Yes. Not to say he won't.

(snip)

I'm not sure Cameron will look foolish if Yes win. He was left with a difficult choice, and went with the democratic option of letting Scotland have their say. His other options were much worse.

He'll be remembered as the PM who lost the UK; the man in power when a country that changed the world ceased to exist. He'll look a lot worse than foolish. I don't think many of us outside Scotland - and perhaps not even that many up there - have begun to think through the full implications of a Yes. It will be one of the most momentous moments in our history. The country we were all born into and are citizens of will disappear. That's a pretty big deal.

So are you saying there should never have been a referendum? Or that one should only have been called if No were guaranteed to win?

I think he did the right thing. But he'll still be the PM who lost his country. That does not happen every day. In fact it has not happened in western Europe since WW2. It would be a very big deal and one that will have considerable repercussions, not least the extended divorce negotiations that will dominate our politics for many a long year subsequently.

I'm no Cameron fan, but he wouldn't have lost his country. The UK will still exist and will likely still use the same flag. If Wales and Northern Ireland left too, you'd have a point, but that's not happening under Cameron.

We'll have to agree to disagree. But to move things on here's a question for you: with Scotland gone, what's the point of Wales and NI remaining from an English perspective? Isn't it quite likely that there will be considerable pressure from within England to finish the job and leave them to it?

HYUFD

Parliamentary Librarian says David Cameron most difficult MP they dealt with according to Sunday Times
http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/focus/article1399405.ece

SouthamObserver

HurstLlama said:

"... The country we were all born into and are citizens of will disappear... "

Sentimental claptrap, Mr. Observer. I am surprised at you. I agree that most people in Scotland haven't thought through what a yes vote will mean and most English people haven't.either. However, the latter have a genuine excuse because it won't make a happenyworth of difference to their lives. If the Scots vote to go their own way it really will be a case of, "So long and thanks for all the fish"

We'll see. I suspect that there will be quite a bit more to it than that. It's not everyday that a western European democracy breaks apart. None of us have seen it happen before, let alone lived through it.

Danny565

anotherDave said:

Just looking at some of the additional questions in the Sunday Times YouGov.

"Below is a list of phrases that might be used to describe or define Britain and what it means to be British. For each one, please indicate how important you think that word or phrase is in defining ‘Britishness’."

Britain's membership of the EU.
Very important: 8%, Fairly important: 21%, not very important: 30%, not at all important: 35%.

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/qvi85im0s2/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-140411.pdf

More proof that Clegg's "Party of IN" strategy never made sense, or the idea floated by some on here that, because more people answered they were in favour of staying in the EU than said they would vote Lib Dem, that they would capture more voters. Even though it's quite possible a majority of people would grudgingly vote to stay in the EU in any referendum, there's hardly anyone who is passionately pro-EU or who thinks staying in the EU is the most important priority.

HYUFD

SeanT Of course Cameron is part Scot himself, so could almost be seen as not entirely one of his fellow English, Welsh and Ulster electorate. But Scotland was independent through most of the middle ages after Bannockburn, through Mary Queen of Scots and it was only when James VI of Scotland became 1st of England we had the same monarch

Socrates

SouthamObserver said:

We'll have to agree to disagree. But to move things on here's a question for you: with Scotland gone, what's the point of Wales and NI remaining from an English perspective? Isn't it quite likely that there will be considerable pressure from within England to finish the job and leave them to it?

Of course we can agree to disagree, but it feels like you haven't even attempted to argue your case. Did Lloyd George lose his country when most of Ireland left?

Wales is hugely economically integrated with England, with north Wales and south Wales each more connected to nearby English cities than with each other. England and Wales have been part of the same state since the 13th Century. The creation of a centralised English state happened under the Tudors, a Welsh dynasty. The country has never been unified except under a Westminster parliament.

As for Northern Ireland, is also obviously has its own long, troubled history yet is now looking mostly stable and with economic growth returning. Why would people want to stir things up there again?

Easterross

If you stop 100 people on any street in the UK, even the poorest parts of Liverpool or Glasgow and ask who was the British PM when the Irish Republic was created, I doubt 5% could tell you. Most English people don't even realise Scotland isn't part of England because they see no difference between England and Great Britain or England and the UK. England doesn't even have its own National Anthem unlike the other parts of the UK so it has to use the UK one. Assuming we Scots vote YES in September, David Cameron will be the biggest winner among the UK leaders. Voters wont blame him because outside Scotland they don't care.

HYUFD

If Scotland goes then Quebec too could well split from Canada within a decade, Catalonia from Spain, even Venice is talking of independence, the domino effect would be global!

rcs1000

I'm going to make a prediction I've made before, and I'll make it again:

The Scottish referendum is not going to be close; it's going to be a big victory for "Better Together".

And the reason for this is that turnout is going to be incredibly high. And very large numbers of "Yeah, I hate the English, but I'm a little concerned about going it alone" voters are going to come out on the day and vote to stay in. When turnout is above 85%, having incredibly committed supporters and the world's greatest GOTV operation means nothing.

Turnout will be above 85% because this is not AV. This is not Lords reform. This is not something minor like who will be your MP for the next couple of years. This is a majorly big deal that will matter for the rest of people's lives.

And therefore the attractions of the status quo will win through, and will win through big. It may very well be the wrong decision for Scotland, but this is what will happen.

SouthamObserver

SeanT said:

SouthamObserver said:

JosiasJessop said:

TOPPING said:

Cam looks pretty foolish if he stays beyond an indyref Yes. Not to say he won't.

(snip)

I'm not sure Cameron will look foolish if Yes win. He was left with a difficult choice, and went with the democratic option of letting Scotland have their say. His other options were much worse.

He'll be remembered as the PM who lost the UK; the man in power when a country that changed the world ceased to exist. He'll look a lot worse than foolish. I don't think many of us outside Scotland - and perhaps not even that many up there - have begun to think through the full implications of a Yes. It will be one of the most momentous moments in our history. The country we were all born into and are citizens of will disappear. That's a pretty big deal.

Absolutely right. Some people think this is like the AV referendum, or Lords reform.

If Scotland secedes the United Kingdom, a 300 year old nation, and still on one of the great powers of the world, will be dissolved. The impact - financially, emotionally and politically - will be enormous (and economically it will be bad for all four home nations, at least to start with, as frightened foreigners take their money away, as the £ is pole-axed, as credit ratings plummet, etc).

Prime ministers have resigned for much less than presiding over the death of the nation they were elected to lead.

In the event of a YES, Cameron will resign, or be forced to resign. He may stick around for a few months to provide some bogus stability, but he will be the walking dead.

I suspect you're pretty close to the mark. Seen from abroad it will be an event of almost unparalleled significance. And one that will not play out well for either the rUK or Scotland.

Socrates

Easterross said:

Most English people don't even realise Scotland isn't part of England

A clearly ridiculous statement. People might inadvertently say "England" occasionally when they mean "the UK", but that doesn't mean they don't know the difference between them. I don't think I've met an English person in my entire life who thought Scotland was part of England.

Stark_Dawning

SeanT said:

If Scotland secedes the United Kingdom, a 300 year old nation, and still on one of the great powers of the world, will be dissolved. The impact - financially, emotionally and politically - will be enormous (and economically it will be bad for all four home nations, at least to start with, as frightened foreigners take their money away, as the £ is pole-axed, as credit ratings plummet, etc).

You're probably right, but the responsibility for all that will lie solely with those who put a tick in the 'Yes' box and their abetters. These people need to face up to the consequences of their actions. They can't push the blame on to the 'The Tories' this time.

Socrates

SouthamObserver said:

SeanT said:

SouthamObserver said:

JosiasJessop said:

TOPPING said:

Cam looks pretty foolish if he stays beyond an indyref Yes. Not to say he won't.

(snip)

I'm not sure Cameron will look foolish if Yes win. He was left with a difficult choice, and went with the democratic option of letting Scotland have their say. His other options were much worse.

He'll be remembered as the PM who lost the UK; the man in power when a country that changed the world ceased to exist. He'll look a lot worse than foolish. I don't think many of us outside Scotland - and perhaps not even that many up there - have begun to think through the full implications of a Yes. It will be one of the most momentous moments in our history. The country we were all born into and are citizens of will disappear. That's a pretty big deal.

Absolutely right. Some people think this is like the AV referendum, or Lords reform.

If Scotland secedes the United Kingdom, a 300 year old nation, and still on one of the great powers of the world, will be dissolved. The impact - financially, emotionally and politically - will be enormous (and economically it will be bad for all four home nations, at least to start with, as frightened foreigners take their money away, as the £ is pole-axed, as credit ratings plummet, etc).

Prime ministers have resigned for much less than presiding over the death of the nation they were elected to lead.

In the event of a YES, Cameron will resign, or be forced to resign. He may stick around for a few months to provide some bogus stability, but he will be the walking dead.

I suspect you're pretty close to the mark. Seen from abroad it will be an event of almost unparalleled significance. And one that will not play out well for either the rUK or Scotland.

Unparalleled significance! This hyperbole is getting ridiculous. I'm happy to bet that it will get less column inches in the year after it happens than the Iraq War did.

Mick_Pork

rcs1000 said:

"Yeah, I hate the English, but I'm a little concerned about going it alone" voters

*tears of laughter etc.*

I thought it would be hard to top the right-wing lunatics raising the spectre of the hanging of the scottish First Minister from a lamp post by piano wire on the previous thread, but Kudos to you sir!

Political Betting, classy as ever.

Scott_P

HYUFD said:

If Scotland goes then Quebec too could well split from Canada within a decade, Catalonia from Spain, even Venice is talking of independence, the domino effect would be global!

Hmmm. They might want to wait a few years, just to see whether a separate Scotland is indeed the land of milk and honey of Eck's fantasy, or whether the grim realities of capital flight from a very small and diminishing petro-economy don't look quite so rosy

Socrates

@rcs1000

I think you're completely right. It's true that the vote will be a lot closer than it should have been, and Better Together has run the campaign very badly. But ultimately, Scots will recognize we're part of a shared nation going back centuries, with a common culture, mentality, language and heritage, and that both sides benefit from staying as one. The doom mongerers are getting way ahead of themselves.

HYUFD

Socrates It will in the likes of Quebec and Catalonia though, all which will have renewed momentum to push again for their own independence from Canada and Spain

malcolmg

MikeSmithson said:

Nobody's really discussed what happens to Salmond if the polls are right and he loses the referendum?

Will depend on what he wants to do, if he i sstill up for it he will walk the next election, if not he will hand over to Nicola Sturgeon.

SouthamObserver

Socrates said:

SouthamObserver said:

We'll have to agree to disagree. But to move things on here's a question for you: with Scotland gone, what's the point of Wales and NI remaining from an English perspective? Isn't it quite likely that there will be considerable pressure from within England to finish the job and leave them to it?

Of course we can agree to disagree, but it feels like you haven't even attempted to argue your case. Did Lloyd George lose his country when most of Ireland left?

Wales is hugely economically integrated with England, with north Wales and south Wales each more connected to nearby English cities than with each other. England and Wales have been part of the same state since the 13th Century. The creation of a centralised English state happened under the Tudors, a Welsh dynasty. The country has never been unified except under a Westminster parliament.

As for Northern Ireland, is also obviously has its own long, troubled history yet is now looking mostly stable and with economic growth returning. Why would people want to stir things up there again?

I have a feeling that English nationalism will become a very big deal in a post-Yes world. And from an English nationalist's perspective what do either Wales or Northern Ireland matter? They are a significant net cost and they don't like us, so why bother with them? Not my view, but one which I can see gaining a lot of support when it is articulated, as it will be in the tabloids, radio phone-ins etc.

As for Ireland, I don't think it was ever seen as integral in the way Scotland was. For decades Irish home rule had been a major discussion/controversy. Ireland sent a majority of home rule MPs to Westminster; culturally it was seen as very different, being a Catholic country in the main part; and it all happened at a time of general turmoil at the end of the First World War. In short, it was very different.

rcs1000

Re Spain: when I was last in Madrid, the view was incredibly hostile to Catalonia. One CEO said to me "frankly, if they had a referendum in the rest of Spain, we'd vote to get rid of Catalonia, and it wouldn't be close".

I don't think this is true of the United Kingdom and Scotland.

SouthamObserver

Socrates said:

SouthamObserver said:

SeanT said:

SouthamObserver said:

JosiasJessop said:

TOPPING said:

Cam looks pretty foolish if he stays beyond an indyref Yes. Not to say he won't.

(snip)

I'm not sure Cameron will look foolish if Yes win. He was left with a difficult choice, and went with the democratic option of letting Scotland have their say. His other options were much worse.

He'll be remembered as the PM who lost the UK; the man in power when a country that changed the world ceased to exist. He'll look a lot worse than foolish. I don't think many of us outside Scotland - and perhaps not even that many up there - have begun to think through the full implications of a Yes. It will be one of the most momentous moments in our history. The country we were all born into and are citizens of will disappear. That's a pretty big deal.

Absolutely right. Some people think this is like the AV referendum, or Lords reform.

If Scotland secedes the United Kingdom, a 300 year old nation, and still on one of the great powers of the world, will be dissolved. The impact - financially, emotionally and politically - will be enormous (and economically it will be bad for all four home nations, at least to start with, as frightened foreigners take their money away, as the £ is pole-axed, as credit ratings plummet, etc).

Prime ministers have resigned for much less than presiding over the death of the nation they were elected to lead.

In the event of a YES, Cameron will resign, or be forced to resign. He may stick around for a few months to provide some bogus stability, but he will be the walking dead.

I suspect you're pretty close to the mark. Seen from abroad it will be an event of almost unparalleled significance. And one that will not play out well for either the rUK or Scotland.

Unparalleled significance! This hyperbole is getting ridiculous. I'm happy to bet that it will get less column inches in the year after it happens than the Iraq War did.

I think you will be very surprised then. I'd certainly be happy to take your bet. Let us reconvene the day after the vote, should Yes win, to set the terms.

Mick_Pork

THE amusing PB Romney and the mockney seem to have overdosed on their hysteria pills.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O3ZOKDmorj0

*chortle*

Of course being so firmly locked in a westminster bubble they don't seem to realise that even their (admittedly hilarious) attempts at doomsaying and fearmongering are easily outdone by the likes of wee Georgie Robertson and some of those in SLAB entering panic mode.

Unwittingly or not they do at least highlight the inevitable consequence of relentless fearmongering. Which will obviously be that it would cause a backlash onto the head of the likes of Cammie if it's a Yes. How could it not? The unionists either believe all the tosh about 'cataclysmic consequences', if scotland votes for Independence in a democratic vote, or even they know it's yet more risible posturing.

So why would some in Labour and SLAB be all too keen to see a backlash against Cammie going into the 2015 election campaign? It's a complete mystery!

LOL

philiph

If Scotland votes YES (which I still think it will), it will be another string to the Tory election campaign, a stick to remorselessly beat Labour with.

You can't trust Labour with the economy
You can't trust Labour with the constitution

Then add as many as you like, such as
You can't trust Labour with Bankers Bonus Tax, they spend it ten times

DavidL

Second report on my canvassing in Bridge of Don yesterday.

As I said yesterday during the morning in a private sector housing area the result was genuinely astonishing with at least 80% strongly supporting no.

In the afternoon we were in a poorer area with older ex council housing and some army barracks. The result still favoured no but not by such a margin and unlike the morning we seemed to find more people who genuinely had not made up their minds or were not interested.

One of the curious features repeated from the morning were the number of people who had voted for the SNP in eithere the Scottish or local elections but were voting no. I reckon my group of 5 found at least 20 like that in each of the 2 hours stints we were canvassing.

The economy and stability were by far the largest reasons given for supporting no. Those who did support yes were less focussed on the issues and much more had their eyes on the prize.

rcs1000

By the way, should 'yes' win (which it won't), I would expect the SNP to sweep up 75% of the seats in Scotland in the 2015 election. It might therefore be worth - instead of betting on 'yes', to bet on 6-1 or 8-1 SNP shots that might come in, in the event of a 'yes' result.