ScottP Maybe, but the momentum would be there. RCS100 True, although Catalonia is prosperous. A similar effect is felt in much of the US about emerging talk from Texas of secesssion
Re Spain: when I was last in Madrid, the view was incredibly hostile to Catalonia. One CEO said to me "frankly, if they had a referendum in the rest of Spain, we'd vote to get rid of Catalonia, and it wouldn't be close".
I don't think this is true of the United Kingdom and Scotland.
Yup, there are even boycotts of Catalan goods, such as cava. It's poisonous over there, much more so than here. But Madrid will never agree to a referendum. When PP are kicked out next year a devomax deal will be done and things will calm down somewhat.
Cam looks pretty foolish if he stays beyond an indyref Yes. Not to say he won't.
(snip)
I'm not sure Cameron will look foolish if Yes win. He was left with a difficult choice, and went with the democratic option of letting Scotland have their say. His other options were much worse.
He'll be remembered as the PM who lost the UK; the man in power when a country that changed the world ceased to exist. He'll look a lot worse than foolish. I don't think many of us outside Scotland - and perhaps not even that many up there - have begun to think through the full implications of a Yes. It will be one of the most momentous moments in our history. The country we were all born into and are citizens of will disappear. That's a pretty big deal.
Re Spain: when I was last in Madrid, the view was incredibly hostile to Catalonia. One CEO said to me "frankly, if they had a referendum in the rest of Spain, we'd vote to get rid of Catalonia, and it wouldn't be close".
I don't think this is true of the United Kingdom and Scotland.
Complete nonsense. Catalunya is one of the most prosperous parts of Spain. The resistance to Catalan secession is enormous in the rest of Spain (apart from the Basque country, for obvious reasons).
See how the MPs, from all parties, voted in Madrid, on the Catalan referendum: 299-47 against.
I'm going to make a prediction I've made before, and I'll make it again:
The Scottish referendum is not going to be close; it's going to be a big victory for "Better Together".
And the reason for this is that turnout is going to be incredibly high. And very large numbers of "Yeah, I hate the English, but I'm a little concerned about going it alone" voters are going to come out on the day and vote to stay in. When turnout is above 85%, having incredibly committed supporters and the world's greatest GOTV operation means nothing.
Turnout will be above 85% because this is not AV. This is not Lords reform. This is not something minor like who will be your MP for the next couple of years. This is a majorly big deal that will matter for the rest of people's lives.
And therefore the attractions of the status quo will win through, and will win through big. It may very well be the wrong decision for Scotland, but this is what will happen.
Robert, did you get my e-mail, still interested in that bet , though you were not stating the other day that NO would win big. You started backpeddling from your first 2:1 win so I doubt you really think it will be big, certainly not enough to back your 2:1 claim from last week.
2 Russian citizens reportedly killed in fighting in the east of the country. What were they doing there?
Looks as if Ukraine has decided to go down the route of actually shifting the armed 'concerned local citizens' out of the buildings that they've seized.
If you look at a line of the towns and cities where these incidents have occurred it would make a very handy line of new autonomous republic under Russian protection...
Cam looks pretty foolish if he stays beyond an indyref Yes. Not to say he won't.
(snip)
I'm not sure Cameron will look foolish if Yes win. He was left with a difficult choice, and went with the democratic option of letting Scotland have their say. His other options were much worse.
He'll be remembered as the PM who lost the UK; the man in power when a country that changed the world ceased to exist. He'll look a lot worse than foolish. I don't think many of us outside Scotland - and perhaps not even that many up there - have begun to think through the full implications of a Yes. It will be one of the most momentous moments in our history. The country we were all born into and are citizens of will disappear. That's a pretty big deal.
Better start planning
On a personal level I have nothing to plan for. What will be will be. Our business does very little trade with any Scottish entity and that won't change as it's not a significant market in the areas we cover. The divorce negotiations will be long and fascinating though, and all our leaders will be considerably diminished as they strut (or whatever diminished people do) the world stage.
The two most reliable analysts I read (one Russian, one German) are becoming incredibly pessimistic about the likely outcome in Ukraine. Essentially, the risk of Russian intervention is rising, and that will inevitably trigger sanctions, which will in turn trigger the switch off of the gas pipeline.
RCS1000/SeanT Once Scotland goes by 2015 what are the odds on Venice, Quebec, Texas, Bavaria, Catalonia, the Basque Country, Wales as well as maybe even Bavaria and Cornwall being independent? Could the 21st century be the era which finally breaks up the old Federal nation state? Of course the likes of India, China and Russia and the old soviet republics are also riven with distinct, separate ethnicities and cultures too which could all be rife for a split
If Scotland secedes the United Kingdom, a 300 year old nation, and still on one of the great powers of the world, will be dissolved. The impact - financially, emotionally and politically - will be enormous (and economically it will be bad for all four home nations, at least to start with, as frightened foreigners take their money away, as the £ is pole-axed, as credit ratings plummet, etc).
You're probably right, but the responsibility for all that will lie solely with those who put a tick in the 'Yes' box and their abetters. These people need to face up to the consequences of their actions. They can't push the blame on to the 'The Tories' this time.
The rise of the independent City state could also soon be upon us, much as it was in the Renaissance. London, New York and Paris and Hong Kong are all ideal candidates
RCS1000/SeanT Once Scotland goes by 2015 what are the odds on Venice, Quebec, Texas, Bavaria, Catalonia, the Basque Country, Wales as well as maybe even Bavaria and Cornwall being independent? Could the 21st century be the era which finally breaks up the old Federal nation state? Of course the likes of India, China and Russia and the old soviet republics are also riven with distinct, separate ethnicities and cultures too which could all be rife for a split
On what timescale? In the foreseeable future, no chance for almost all that list.
Re Spain: when I was last in Madrid, the view was incredibly hostile to Catalonia. One CEO said to me "frankly, if they had a referendum in the rest of Spain, we'd vote to get rid of Catalonia, and it wouldn't be close".
I don't think this is true of the United Kingdom and Scotland.
Complete nonsense. Catalunya is one of the most prosperous parts of Spain. The resistance to Catalan secession is enormous in the rest of Spain (apart from the Basque country, for obvious reasons).
See how the MPs, from all parties, voted in Madrid, on the Catalan referendum: 299-47 against.
And I think you know perfectly well that there were many reasons behind the size of the vote.
You've made a schoolboy error. Hostility to Catalans is widespread in Spain, I've encountered it myself: the rest of Spain sees them as the Greeks see the Germans - rich, cold, arrogant, selfish.
But does this mean they want the Catalonians to leave? No, of course not. Spain needs Catalan know how and Catalan money; one of the reasons many Spaniards resent the Catalans is BECAUSE Barcelona wants to walk away from poorer Spanish regions.
Spot on. It's very sad to see. And ironically it's a party that describes itself as left wing - ERC - which is most vocal in Catalonia for independence. However, don't forget that Spanish nationalism is also a powerful force - the old Francoist slogan "Una, grande y libre", which used to be on all the coins as well as everywhere else, is deeply ingrained, especially among PP supporters.
The two most reliable analysts I read (one Russian, one German) are becoming incredibly pessimistic about the likely outcome in Ukraine. Essentially, the risk of Russian intervention is rising, and that will inevitably trigger sanctions, which will in turn trigger the switch off of the gas pipeline.
Cam looks pretty foolish if he stays beyond an indyref Yes. Not to say he won't.
(snip)
I'm not sure Cameron will look foolish if Yes win. He was left with a difficult choice, and went with the democratic option of letting Scotland have their say. His other options were much worse.
He'll be remembered as the PM who lost the UK; the man in power when a country that changed the world ceased to exist. He'll look a lot worse than foolish. I don't think many of us outside Scotland - and perhaps not even that many up there - have begun to think through the full implications of a Yes. It will be one of the most momentous moments in our history. The country we were all born into and are citizens of will disappear. That's a pretty big deal.
He'll be remembered in that way by people who look only at the negatives. If independence works, he could just as easily be looked back at as the PM who gave Scotland its future. Especially as the alternatives: not offering a referendum two years ago, or rejecting the referendum's results, are all much darker. What choice did he have?
I could understand why a Labour supporter might desperately be trying to pin the blame ahead of time on Cameron, given that the current situation is mired in their decisions of over a decade ago, and the way Labour has been leading the 'Better Together' campaign.
As Socrates says below, a 'country that changed the world' changed when Ireland left, and the Empire slowly sailed off into the sunset. And you know what: we're doing okay despite these hideous setbacks (tm).
As for the country ceasing to exist: that's patently ridiculous.
But I agree that few of us having thought through the full implications of yes, simply because those implications rely on both sides negotiating in good faith in an uncertain legal and political environment. It will take years to sort out, and I reckon neither side will be content with the result.
RCS1000/SeanT Once Scotland goes by 2015 what are the odds on Venice, Quebec, Texas, Bavaria, Catalonia, the Basque Country, Wales as well as maybe even Bavaria and Cornwall being independent? Could the 21st century be the era which finally breaks up the old Federal nation state? Of course the likes of India, China and Russia and the old soviet republics are also riven with distinct, separate ethnicities and cultures too which could all be rife for a split
On what timescale? In the foreseeable future, no chance for almost all that list.
If Scotland goes I'd say Catalonia and the Basque Country are more likely to secede than not. The principle will be established: senior western powers can split up.
Wale is just possible, but only if England basically says Go away; the rest, I agree, are almost vanishingly unlikely.
Texas?? lol.
I'd guess that if Scotland does go there'll be an awful lot of effort put into ensuring it's a one off - something that will also have a big impact on Scotland. There is no real Basque pressure for separation in Spain as, unlike the Catalans, they essentially have almost total home rule. It's also worth remembering that France has a keen interest in what happens in Catalonia and the Basque Country given the Basque and Catalan land under its control.
Corporeal Why not? Quebec only rejected independence 51-49 in 1995, a higher vote for independence than YES is presently polling in Scotland. Venice has recently held its own referendum on independence (not recognised by Rome). A clear majority of the Catalan Parliament wants independence and 55% of it is formed by separatist parties, in the Basque country ETA has long turned to violence in its cause. In Belgium, the Flanders' nationalist party now has the most seats. In Texas according to one poll 48% of Republicans wanted to secede after Obama's reelection. Even Bavaria, has its own distinct identity and conservative party separate from the CDU and Cornwall has Mebyon Kernow and Wales Plaid Cymru
The two most reliable analysts I read (one Russian, one German) are becoming incredibly pessimistic about the likely outcome in Ukraine. Essentially, the risk of Russian intervention is rising, and that will inevitably trigger sanctions, which will in turn trigger the switch off of the gas pipeline.
The Russians have already intervened.
A couple of hours ago I watched the first half hour of Octopussy, where Russian General Orlov gives a speech about how the west would not intervene because of their weakness. It seems rather apt thirty years later. Especially the bit about the British only being able to put up a token force against them. ;-)
Cries for David Cameron to face Nigel Farage in a live TV debate
NIGEL Farage must be allowed to take part in party leaders’ TV debates before next year’s election, according to grassroots Tory party members.
They want David Cameron to go head-to- head with the Ukip leader in front of millions of viewers.
Failure to include Mr Farage will seem “cowardly” to the public, handing him a moral victory, they insist.
A ComRes poll commissioned by party volunteer group Conservative Grassroots reveals today that half of the public back their bid to bring Mr Farage into the TV debates.
Tory aides yesterday insisted “negotiations are still ongoing” over whether Mr Cameron will agree to appear.
However, today’s poll is the clearest signal yet that Tory party members want their leader to take up the fight.
It revealed only 21 per cent of voters agree with keeping Mr Farage out of the debate, while 51 per cent disagree.
Even among Conservative supporters, 49 per cent agree that Mr Cameron would appear cowardly if Mr Farage was excluded.
Robert Woollard, chairman of Conservative Grassroots, said: “We believe that only by winning the argument against Ukip does Mr Cameron stand any chance of holding on to No 10.”
Corporeal Why not? Quebec only rejected independence 51-49 in 1995, a higher vote for independence than YES is presently polling in Scotland. Venice has recently held its own referendum on independence (not recognised by Rome). A clear majority of the Catalan Parliament wants independence and 55% of it is formed by separatist parties, in the Basque country ETA has long turned to violence in its cause. In Belgium, the Flanders' nationalist party now has the most seats. In Texas according to one poll 48% of Republicans wanted to secede after Obama's reelection. Even Bavaria, has its own distinct identity and conservative party separate from the CDU and Cornwall has Mebyon Kernow and Wales Plaid Cymru
I may be wrong, but I believe the main Flemish nationalist party has decided against calling for independence for Flanders and is now going to campaign for a Belgian confederacy, with Wallonia and Flanders essentially running their own affairs within a country called Belgium that has no real central government.
I see that the planned demolition of the Red Road flats as part of the opening ceremony of the Commonwealth Games has been dropped. I'm not surprised, if only from a safety viewpoint: guaranteeing that they'd be blown up in the required time window, whatever the weather and technical factors, always seems a tad optimistic. And the embarrassment of them missing the time would have been large.
Basically, it was a large variable that was outside the organisers' hands. They've made the right and safe decision IMHO. It was a stupid idea.
You ar enot expecting NO to win that big then , but I will take the bet at 43% if you are scared at your original 2:1.
Actually, I think I said "I expect it to be 2:1, and am willing to take bets on 58:42". I have since changed my view, I'm afraid, and expect it to be around 62:38, and am willing to take bets on 57:43.
The market price (under/over) is 57:43, which is offered at 5/6. I'm offering you better than this, as I'm offering evens.
By the way, doesn't the outlook for independence in Catalonia, the Basque Country, Corsica, Cornwall, Hampstead etc., depend on how much of a success the Scots make of it?
If they make it as a thriving independent country, like Ireland, then I think the forecasts of further successful (European) independence movements are probably correct.
However, if it is a painful birth, with delayed access to the EEA, currency struggles, difficulties with the sovereign debt markets, etc., then it might kill off independence movements instead.
RCS1000/SeanT Once Scotland goes by 2015 what are the odds on Venice, Quebec, Texas, Bavaria, Catalonia, the Basque Country, Wales as well as maybe even Bavaria and Cornwall being independent? Could the 21st century be the era which finally breaks up the old Federal nation state? Of course the likes of India, China and Russia and the old soviet republics are also riven with distinct, separate ethnicities and cultures too which could all be rife for a split
On what timescale? In the foreseeable future, no chance for almost all that list.
If Scotland goes I'd say Catalonia and the Basque Country are more likely to secede than not. The principle will be established: senior western powers can split up.
Wale is just possible, but only if England basically says Go away; the rest, I agree, are almost vanishingly unlikely.
Texas?? lol.
I'd guess that if Scotland does go there'll be an awful lot of effort put into ensuring it's a one off - something that will also have a big impact on Scotland. There is no real Basque pressure for separation in Spain as, unlike the Catalans, they essentially have almost total home rule. It's also worth remembering that France has a keen interest in what happens in Catalonia and the Basque Country given the Basque and Catalan land under its control.
Half true. Support for Basque independence has been impacted by ETA violence, actively turning people off.
But you ignore the possibility of a domino effect. Say Scotland secedes, then Catalunya. At that point the pressure on the Basques to do the same will increase, as it sees itself propping up the rest of a poorer country, without Catalan help.
I think the Basques get to keep a lot more of the tax money they raise than the Catalans do. If that changed it would cause big problems.
Secession without agreement from Madrid would be immensely risky as few countries ever recognise UDI - something that precludes the joining of international bodies, trade deals, access to capital etc. And the chances of Madrid agreeing to secession, or even discussing it are zero. As I say below, a change of Spanish government next year may well lead to a Basque style deal for Catalonia and that would calm things down considerably.
Of course, we should also not ignore the rising Hispanic population in the Southwestern US. They already make up a plurality in New Mexico, and are increasing in California, Arizona and Texas, who knows if they will start to push for a reunion with Mexico?
Of course, we should also not ignore the rising Hispanic population in the Southwestern US. They already make up a plurality in New Mexico, and are increasing in California, Arizona and Texas, who knows if they will start to push for a reunion with Mexico?
I think most of the Hispanic population of those states are enormously glad to have US passports rather than Mexican ones!
Texas might go if the rest of the US elected a president more hated in Texas than Obama is now. But as that's actually impossible Texas will stay.
Keep in mind the most amusing PB Romney actually believed Romney would be elected President because of that supposed hatred. But hard to take take any of his predictions seriously after that hilarity, wouldn't you say?
You ar enot expecting NO to win that big then , but I will take the bet at 43% if you are scared at your original 2:1.
Actually, I think I said "I expect it to be 2:1, and am willing to take bets on 58:42". I have since changed my view, I'm afraid, and expect it to be around 62:38, and am willing to take bets on 57:43.
The market price (under/over) is 57:43, which is offered at 5/6. I'm offering you better than this, as I'm offering evens.
You ar enot expecting NO to win that big then , but I will take the bet at 43% if you are scared at your original 2:1.
Actually, I think I said "I expect it to be 2:1, and am willing to take bets on 58:42". I have since changed my view, I'm afraid, and expect it to be around 62:38, and am willing to take bets on 57:43.
The market price (under/over) is 57:43, which is offered at 5/6. I'm offering you better than this, as I'm offering evens.
£100?
Robert, It is a bet , I will not be around for a week after the YES to collect but will be a nice bonus when I return from holiday.
I agree with Son of OGH as regards an exceptionally high turnout in the Scottish Referendum Vote which opens up the prospect of a high YES vote where Ladbrokes are offering 8/1 against the No vote being between 30% - 35% and 5/1 against it being between 35% and 40%. Those of a nervous disposition can cover both these bands, staking 40% and 60% respectively in each case to produce winning odds of 2.6/1 on the combined stake in either case should this bet prove successful. I'm on but DYOR.
SeanT/RCS1000 Maybe, but most of those Mexican Americans send money back to their families in Mexico. Once they get to a majority in, say California, who knows if they will not push for reunion with Mexico and bring back to Mexico what would be its richest state by far?
Texas might go if the rest of the US elected a president more hated in Texas than Obama is now. But as that's actually impossible Texas will stay.
Keep in mind the most amusing PB Romney actually believed Romney would be elected President because of that supposed hatred. But hard to take take any of his predictions seriously after that hilarity, wouldn't you say?
SeanT/RCS1000 Maybe, but most of those Mexican Americans send money back to their families in Mexico. Once they get to a majority in, say California, who knows if they will not push for reunion with Mexico and bring back to Mexico what would be its richest state by far?
Yes, I can really see the US handing the wealthiest place on the planet over to Mexico on the say so of a few illiterate immigrants.
malcolmg Not necessarily, Salmond gets on well with Prince Charles and William and Kate are very popular, of course the Queen is a direct descendant of Mary Queen of Scots and the Scottish monarchs as well as Elizabeth 1st and the English monarchs, so she really does represent both England and Scotland
Those predicating a far bigger NO vote off the back of increased turnout might do well to look at the demographics of those who are hard to get onto the electoral register and just why it is that the YES campaign are concentrating so many resources on getting those voters out for September. I'm afraid the NO campaign has been somewhat 'lacklustre' in their attempts to do so to say the least.
malcolmg Not necessarily, Salmond gets on well with Prince Charles and William and Kate are very popular, of course the Queen is a direct descendant of Mary Queen of Scots and the Scottish monarchs as well as Elizabeth 1st and the English monarchs, so she really does represent both England and Scotland
HYUFD, I know not necessarily but would not be so confident after current Queen, however not really a big issue at this point.
Harvard University professor Samuel P. Huntington stated in 2004 that:
“ Demographically, socially and culturally, the reconquista of the Southwest United States by Mexico is well under way. No other immigrant group in U.S. history has asserted or could assert a historical claim to U.S. territory. Mexicans and Mexican-Americans can and do make that claim. ”
Neo-liberal political writer Mickey Kaus has remarked,
“ If you talk to people in Mexico... if you get them drunk in a bar, they'll say we're taking it back, sorry. That's not an uncommon sentiment in Mexico, so why can't we take it seriously here? This is like a Quebec problem if France was next door to Canada
Texas might go if the rest of the US elected a president more hated in Texas than Obama is now. But as that's actually impossible Texas will stay.
Keep in mind the most amusing PB Romney actually believed Romney would be elected President because of that supposed hatred. But hard to take take any of his predictions seriously after that hilarity, wouldn't you say?
I think Yes will win in September.
It would certainly explain your attempts to repeat the fearmongering and scaremongering that served SLAB so very admirably in 2011 and have seen the polls narrow as they ramped up Project Fear for the Independence vote. No better way to ensure a Yes vote than that, I assure you.
Just put the bin out for collection tomorrow. The sound of bird song out there is deafening. There must be hundreds of the little buggers chirping their hearts out. I blame global warming.
(Well, FFS, its a more interesting subject than non-betting posts on Scotland which make up about half of this site these days)
Cries for David Cameron to face Nigel Farage in a live TV debate
NIGEL Farage must be allowed to take part in party leaders’ TV debates before next year’s election, according to grassroots Tory party members.
They want David Cameron to go head-to- head with the Ukip leader in front of millions of viewers.
Failure to include Mr Farage will seem “cowardly” to the public, handing him a moral victory, they insist.
A ComRes poll commissioned by party volunteer group Conservative Grassroots reveals today that half of the public back their bid to bring Mr Farage into the TV debates.
Tory aides yesterday insisted “negotiations are still ongoing” over whether Mr Cameron will agree to appear.
However, today’s poll is the clearest signal yet that Tory party members want their leader to take up the fight.
It revealed only 21 per cent of voters agree with keeping Mr Farage out of the debate, while 51 per cent disagree.
Even among Conservative supporters, 49 per cent agree that Mr Cameron would appear cowardly if Mr Farage was excluded.
Robert Woollard, chairman of Conservative Grassroots, said: “We believe that only by winning the argument against Ukip does Mr Cameron stand any chance of holding on to No 10.”
Mr. Llama, fair bit of twittering (from birds) when I walked the hound this morning. Saw a squirrel, again, as well. Think there's a breeding pair here.
Stark Downing But what if the Hispanics elected a majority Hispanic legislature in, say, California which held its own referendum regardless of Washington's views?
Those predicating a far bigger NO vote off the back of increased turnout might do well to look at the demographics of those who are hard to get onto the electoral register and just why it is that the YES campaign are concentrating so many resources on getting those voters out for September. I'm afraid the NO campaign has been somewhat 'lacklustre' in their attempts to do so to say the least.
Mick:
Historically, undecideds have tended to break very heavily for the status quo in referendums.
And people often emotionally want independence (and say that when queried). But when in the privacy of the ballot box choose the safe option. Scots who fear for the future of an independent Scotland may I'm afraid - say "Yes" when speaking to a pollster or their mates, but vote "No" when it comes to putting an 'x' in a box.
I think the polls will overstate 'yes' by five points or more.
Cries for David Cameron to face Nigel Farage in a live TV debate
NIGEL Farage must be allowed to take part in party leaders’ TV debates before next year’s election, according to grassroots Tory party members.
They want David Cameron to go head-to- head with the Ukip leader in front of millions of viewers.
Failure to include Mr Farage will seem “cowardly” to the public, handing him a moral victory, they insist.
A ComRes poll commissioned by party volunteer group Conservative Grassroots reveals today that half of the public back their bid to bring Mr Farage into the TV debates.
Tory aides yesterday insisted “negotiations are still ongoing” over whether Mr Cameron will agree to appear.
However, today’s poll is the clearest signal yet that Tory party members want their leader to take up the fight.
It revealed only 21 per cent of voters agree with keeping Mr Farage out of the debate, while 51 per cent disagree.
Even among Conservative supporters, 49 per cent agree that Mr Cameron would appear cowardly if Mr Farage was excluded.
Robert Woollard, chairman of Conservative Grassroots, said: “We believe that only by winning the argument against Ukip does Mr Cameron stand any chance of holding on to No 10.”
"Conservative Grassroots" is a self appointed mini-group which could be said to be ukip-lite.
While ConHome is the very beating heart of the treacherous kipper fifth columnists, along with the torygraph of course.
Which sort of begs the question of exactly who were all those tory activist "swivel-eyed loons" the chumocracy were ranting about? Where could they all be hiding?
Stark Downing But what if the Hispanics elected a majority Hispanic legislature in, say, California which held its own referendum regardless of Washington's views?
Those predicating a far bigger NO vote off the back of increased turnout might do well to look at the demographics of those who are hard to get onto the electoral register and just why it is that the YES campaign are concentrating so many resources on getting those voters out for September. I'm afraid the NO campaign has been somewhat 'lacklustre' in their attempts to do so to say the least.
Mick:
Historically, undecideds have tended to break very heavily for the status quo in referendums.
Well, A/ Not for Devolution they certainly didn't which just might have some relevance in scotland.
And B/ that's undecideds not those who aren't on the electoral register who are notoriously hard to reach and GOTV for. Make no mistake though, the YES campaign are throwing a HUGE amount of effort into registering them. Not so for the NO campaign. Why would that be do you think?
Maybe you have a completely unscientific anecdote to explain that too?
StarkDowning With huge riots the inevitable result and who knows what response from the Mexican Government, as I said, it is a highly unlikely proposition, but not impossible given present demographics
Stark Downing But what if the Hispanics elected a majority Hispanic legislature in, say, California which held its own referendum regardless of Washington's views?
If a Bush were in the White House, the US would invade Panama.
Historically, undecideds have tended to break very heavily for the status quo in referendums.
'Matt Qvortrup: History tells sceptics Yes can win
The assumption that the electorate are inherently conservative and that the undecided voters invariably vote against change is factually wrong and empirically incorrect. Moreover, it gives Better Together a false sense of security that they can ill afford.'
Lord Rennard may win back a key role within Lib Dems, suggests minister: Despite defying Nick Clegg's demand t... http://bit.ly/1en8vj3
I thought the 'suspension' can only last 90 days before formal disciplinary proceeding must commence, in which of course no sane tribunal would uphold anything at all against Rennard...
Sounds like they're desperately trying to find a way out of a mess of their own making now.
And people often emotionally want independence (and say that when queried). But when in the privacy of the ballot box choose the safe option.
And let's not forget the threats of retribution that the Nationalists have been chucking about at anyone who's dared to voice pro-union sentiments. That poor travel agent was threatened with having his business boycotted and his employee's livelihoods wrecked. You need to be a brave man indeed to speak out in that sort of climate.
Mr. Llama, fair bit of twittering (from birds) when I walked the hound this morning. Saw a squirrel, again, as well. Think there's a breeding pair here.
Lord Rennard may win back a key role within Lib Dems, suggests minister: Despite defying Nick Clegg's demand t... http://bit.ly/1en8vj3
I thought the 'suspension' can only last 90 days before formal disciplinary proceeding must commence, in which of course no sane tribunal would uphold anything at all against Rennard...
Sounds like they're desperately trying to find a way out of a mess of their own making now.
Which sort of begs the question of how on earth did they think it would end with Clegg posturing away so adamantly against Rennard? It's going to be noticed, that's for damn sure. Some lib dems less than impressed with Clegg's 'Farage' strategy may even use it to further destabalise Clegg.
Put it this way, if Clegg keeps doing as calamitously as he has been then there's inevitably going to be a whisper campaign against him even if it doesn't succeed in toppling him. Rennard has the ammunition and the contacts to make that happen. Clegg needs Rennard back like a hole in the head.
Lord Rennard may win back a key role within Lib Dems, suggests minister: Despite defying Nick Clegg's demand t... http://bit.ly/1en8vj3
I thought the 'suspension' can only last 90 days before formal disciplinary proceeding must commence, in which of course no sane tribunal would uphold anything at all against Rennard...
Sounds like they're desperately trying to find a way out of a mess of their own making now.
Which sort of begs the question of how on earth did they think it would end with Clegg posturing away so adamantly against Rennard? It's going to be noticed, that's for damn sure. Some lib dems less than impressed with Clegg's 'Farage' strategy may even use it to further destabalise Clegg.
Put it this way, if Clegg keeps doing as calamitously as he has been then there's inevitably going to be a whisper campaign against him even if it doesn't succeed in toppling him. Rennard has the ammunition and the contacts to make that happen. Clegg needs Rennard back like a hole in the head.
Re Clegg, it must be reasonably likely that it will be made clear to him at the end of this year that it might be time to step down. The question then becomes: Farron, Lamb or someone else.
Mr. Jessop, I think I read that somewhere... can't recall where. Hmm. I'd suggest A Time Traveller's Guide to Medieval England, but that's a bit too early. That's annoying.
Morris dancing: an act of Shakespearean magnificence!
Stark Downing But what if the Hispanics elected a majority Hispanic legislature in, say, California which held its own referendum regardless of Washington's views?
I expect the Duma will ratify the vote and President Putin will sign into law the annexation of California within days.
Re Clegg, it must be reasonably likely that it will be made clear to him at the end of this year that it might be time to step down. The question then becomes: Farron, Lamb or someone else.
The most ironic thing of all is that nobody knows better than Clegg just how that particular 'dance' will operate after Ming Campbell. He was in faster than even Huhne when the whispers against Ming started. While his closeness to Paddy ensured that he was able to join in with the 'pressure' and make it known that Ming was going bye-bye, one way or another.
Problem for the lib dems is Clegg really does seem convinced that he should stay. Nothing else can explain the 'Farage' strategy. The ostrich faction around Clegg really do seem convinced that they can rehabilitate him among the voters with radio phone ins and debates. They are very, very wrong. He is toxic and that will not change.
Historically, undecideds have tended to break very heavily for the status quo in referendums.
'Matt Qvortrup: History tells sceptics Yes can win
The assumption that the electorate are inherently conservative and that the undecided voters invariably vote against change is factually wrong and empirically incorrect. Moreover, it gives Better Together a false sense of security that they can ill afford.'
You have to wonder if Cammie or Clegg have even given it that much thought yet. Sooner or later they will have to. I would guess the May elections aftermath will start concentrating minds on both sides very sharply as to how it all ends.
You have to wonder if Cammie or Clegg have even given it that much thought yet. Sooner or later they will have to. I would guess the May elections aftermath will start concentrating minds on both sides very sharply as to how it all ends.
You have to wonder if Cammie or Clegg have even given it that much thought yet. Sooner or later they will have to. I would guess the May elections aftermath will start concentrating minds on both sides very sharply as to how it all ends.
I suggested that back in 2010. How else is it supposed to end?
You have to wonder if Cammie or Clegg have even given it that much thought yet. Sooner or later they will have to. I would guess the May elections aftermath will start concentrating minds on both sides very sharply as to how it all ends.
I suggested that back in 2010. How else is it supposed to end?
Avery predicted Lansley would be PM so who knows what the inept Cameroons may be planning.
malcolmg Not necessarily, Salmond gets on well with Prince Charles and William and Kate are very popular, of course the Queen is a direct descendant of Mary Queen of Scots and the Scottish monarchs as well as Elizabeth 1st and the English monarchs, so she really does represent both England and Scotland
Elizabeth I had no children, therefore she has no descendants.
Cam looks pretty foolish if he stays beyond an indyref Yes. Not to say he won't.
(snip)
He'll be remembered in that way by people who look only at the negatives. If independence works, he could just as easily be looked back at as the PM who gave Scotland its future. Especially as the alternatives: not offering a referendum two years ago, or rejecting the referendum's results, are all much darker. What choice did he have?
I could understand why a Labour supporter might desperately be trying to pin the blame ahead of time on Cameron, given that the current situation is mired in their decisions of over a decade ago, and the way Labour has been leading the 'Better Together' campaign.
As Socrates says below, a 'country that changed the world' changed when Ireland left, and the Empire slowly sailed off into the sunset. And you know what: we're doing okay despite these hideous setbacks (tm).
As for the country ceasing to exist: that's patently ridiculous.
But I agree that few of us having thought through the full implications of yes, simply because those implications rely on both sides negotiating in good faith in an uncertain legal and political environment. It will take years to sort out, and I reckon neither side will be content with the result.
The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland will cease to exist. That's just a fact. Great Britain as a political entity will cease to exist. That is also a fact.
We haven't even decided what we will call ourselves if the Scots go, nor do we know if we will keep the same flag, etc.
Today I was editing my next thriller and at one point a character, in my book, referred to a (Scottish) location as being "one of the most remote places in the UK".
Then I realised that, by the time the book comes out (2015) the UK may no longer exist and my character's statement will be absurd.
It was quite sobering.
Fear not, Sean. You would not need a reprint. The Scots women are a canny lot. They know which side of the bread is buttered.
"Nobody in the West wants this to happen,” said Phillips O’Brien, who directs the Scottish Center for War Studies at the University of Glasgow. “At some point, you have to admit you’re not a great power. And if Scotland is leaving, you’re basically left with the city-state of London.”
"Losing Scotland would cleave away a third of the U.K.’s landmass and a tenth of its gross national product, including a sizable chunk of the revenue from rich North Sea oil reserves. Independence could also render Britain’s nuclear weapons without a port to call home."
You mean we could be like other European countries and become rich without a huge defence handicap. Let the French do it.
Independence for Scotland clearly has advantages. Go Scotland, go !
@Surbiton "Have you thought that many SLAB members would not mind if YES wins and then see the inevitable break-up of the SNP into it's Tory and Liberal components?"
Sorry - missed this, apologies for delay. Point taken, indeed had not considered this. But even if the SNP breaks up - which I am not particularly convinced it will, so mibbes aye, mibbes naw - I can't easily see your scenario happening for the simple reason that the SNP is now seen by many as well to the left of Labour (as run by Ms Lamont and Mr Miliband). See Political Compass website for instance.
I'd put more money on SLAB splitting (or downsizing) and some of it hopping over the SNP to the left end of the spectrum and something almost a Tommy Sheridan-SSP position. Welcome back Keir Hardie!
There is also the factor that if there is a Yes vote, then unionists are not going to do well thereafter if there is any suspicion that they might put the rUK's interests ahead of Scotland's (fairly or otherwise). So any election before the completion of full negotiations is going to put a premium on the Scottish parties splitting off from London - which would a priori break up Labour and the Tories (not sure about LDs). This would force shakeups and possible further splits/resignations/shifts of allegiance to e.g. SNP or plain old independent (like Mr Canavan). That would apply to the 2015 UKGE (assuming, I know, but let's let that lie pro tem...) and 2016 Scottish GE (even on the current timescales). SNP might break up in the fullness of time but I'd put it at a cycle on beyond that, once politics has settled down in the new constitution.
"Nobody in the West wants this to happen,” said Phillips O’Brien, who directs the Scottish Center for War Studies at the University of Glasgow. “At some point, you have to admit you’re not a great power. And if Scotland is leaving, you’re basically left with the city-state of London.”
"Losing Scotland would cleave away a third of the U.K.’s landmass and a tenth of its gross national product, including a sizable chunk of the revenue from rich North Sea oil reserves. Independence could also render Britain’s nuclear weapons without a port to call home."
You mean we could be like other European countries and become rich without a huge defence handicap. Let the French do it.
Independence for Scotland clearly has advantages. Go Scotland, go !
"Nobody in the West wants this to happen" - except millions of Scots Americans who support and fund the independence bid
Aid to the downtrodden masses? It was the same in Ireland. People love a "revolution" as long as it is only a few dollars in a collection box. They tend to be not so keen if it is in their own backyard.
"Nobody in the West wants this to happen,” said Phillips O’Brien, who directs the Scottish Center for War Studies at the University of Glasgow. “At some point, you have to admit you’re not a great power. And if Scotland is leaving, you’re basically left with the city-state of London.”
"Losing Scotland would cleave away a third of the U.K.’s landmass and a tenth of its gross national product, including a sizable chunk of the revenue from rich North Sea oil reserves. Independence could also render Britain’s nuclear weapons without a port to call home."
You mean we could be like other European countries and become rich without a huge defence handicap. Let the French do it.
Independence for Scotland clearly has advantages. Go Scotland, go !
"Nobody in the West wants this to happen" - except millions of Scots Americans who support and fund the independence bid
What if Scotland voted for independence,we go on about scotland can't get EU membership,what about rest of uk,isn't that a major change in our membership of EU and doesn't that force a Referendum lock to be used ?
Guarding has the ranking of MPs taking part in the London marathon
Alan Cairns 3.34:08 Edward Timpson 3.42:24 Dan Jarvis 3.45:08 Sadiq Khan 4.19:47 Andy Burnham 4.26:19 Graham Evans 4.43:56 Jason McCartney 4.57:35 Ed Balls 5:14:13
Comments
You can regard it as nonsense or not.
And I think you know perfectly well that there were many reasons behind the size of the vote.
Peter Bone: Tory MP Investigated Over Expenses... The Tories are just becoming more unelectable every day, this time its only £89,000 #marr
2 Russian citizens reportedly killed in fighting in the east of the country. What were they doing there?
Looks as if Ukraine has decided to go down the route of actually shifting the armed 'concerned local citizens' out of the buildings that they've seized.
If you look at a line of the towns and cities where these incidents have occurred it would make a very handy line of new autonomous republic under Russian protection...
Apparently Tory Patrick Mercer MP is likely to be suspended for 6 months in another expenses scandal. We need the power to sack now....
MPs' expenses pay for Conservative party conference gay orgy http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/470168/MPs-expenses-pay-for-Conservative-party-conference-gay-orgy …
Daily_Express @Daily_Express Apr 10
David Cameron claims 'Big Society' is the work of Jesus, as he calls himself 'Dyno-rod' http://dexpr.es/1eu4rrT
The two most reliable analysts I read (one Russian, one German) are becoming incredibly pessimistic about the likely outcome in Ukraine. Essentially, the risk of Russian intervention is rising, and that will inevitably trigger sanctions, which will in turn trigger the switch off of the gas pipeline.
Shakira's Catalan single "Boig per tu" stokes tension, & reveals just how pathetic Spanish nationalists are via @WSJ http://blogs.wsj.com/speakeasy/2014/03/27/shakira-sings-in-catalan-stokes-political-tension-in-spain/ …
Is it time for Clegg to be defenestrated? 7% in polls & 0% in a Daily Mirror poll asking who do you want as next PM, a LibDem Michael Foot
I could understand why a Labour supporter might desperately be trying to pin the blame ahead of time on Cameron, given that the current situation is mired in their decisions of over a decade ago, and the way Labour has been leading the 'Better Together' campaign.
As Socrates says below, a 'country that changed the world' changed when Ireland left, and the Empire slowly sailed off into the sunset. And you know what: we're doing okay despite these hideous setbacks (tm).
As for the country ceasing to exist: that's patently ridiculous.
But I agree that few of us having thought through the full implications of yes, simply because those implications rely on both sides negotiating in good faith in an uncertain legal and political environment. It will take years to sort out, and I reckon neither side will be content with the result.
This must have been a very depressing weekend for Nick Clegg and his key advisers. I hope somebody put in a call to @OllyGrender ...
"The west is decadent and divided."
In fact, here it is:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x99njmZxaMA
NIGEL Farage must be allowed to take part in party leaders’ TV debates before next year’s election, according to grassroots Tory party members.
They want David Cameron to go head-to- head with the Ukip leader in front of millions of viewers.
Failure to include Mr Farage will seem “cowardly” to the public, handing him a moral victory, they insist.
A ComRes poll commissioned by party volunteer group Conservative Grassroots reveals today that half of the public back their bid to bring Mr Farage into the TV debates.
Tory aides yesterday insisted “negotiations are still ongoing” over whether Mr Cameron will agree to appear.
However, today’s poll is the clearest signal yet that Tory party members want their leader to take up the fight.
It revealed only 21 per cent of voters agree with keeping Mr Farage out of the debate, while 51 per cent disagree.
Even among Conservative supporters, 49 per cent agree that Mr Cameron would appear cowardly if Mr Farage was excluded.
Robert Woollard, chairman of Conservative Grassroots, said: “We believe that only by winning the argument against Ukip does Mr Cameron stand any chance of holding on to No 10.”
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/470034/Following-on-from-Clegg-cries-for-Cameron-to-face-Farage-in-TV-debate
Fop Chicken.
I see that the planned demolition of the Red Road flats as part of the opening ceremony of the Commonwealth Games has been dropped. I'm not surprised, if only from a safety viewpoint: guaranteeing that they'd be blown up in the required time window, whatever the weather and technical factors, always seems a tad optimistic. And the embarrassment of them missing the time would have been large.
Basically, it was a large variable that was outside the organisers' hands. They've made the right and safe decision IMHO. It was a stupid idea.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-27009806
The market price (under/over) is 57:43, which is offered at 5/6. I'm offering you better than this, as I'm offering evens.
£100?
BREAKING NEWS: Robertson warns independence would be "the end of my world as we know it" #IndyRef #YesScot http://www.bbc.scotlandshire.co.uk/index.php/city-news/704-robertson-warns-independence-would-be-qthe-end-of-my-world-as-we-know-itq.html …
*chortle*
I have a little invested on Westwood to get his major at last at 33-1.
C'mon Lee!
Do it for England.
If they make it as a thriving independent country, like Ireland, then I think the forecasts of further successful (European) independence movements are probably correct.
However, if it is a painful birth, with delayed access to the EEA, currency struggles, difficulties with the sovereign debt markets, etc., then it might kill off independence movements instead.
Secession without agreement from Madrid would be immensely risky as few countries ever recognise UDI - something that precludes the joining of international bodies, trade deals, access to capital etc. And the chances of Madrid agreeing to secession, or even discussing it are zero. As I say below, a change of Spanish government next year may well lead to a Basque style deal for Catalonia and that would calm things down considerably.
Even Tories demand Cameron faces Farage in 2015 TV Debates http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/470034/Following-on-from-Clegg-cries-for-Cameron-to-face-Farage-in-TV-debate …
Maybe the fop can appeal to a higher power to run away from it?
HuffPost UK @HuffPostUK
David Cameron compares himself to Jesus: In pictures http://huff.to/1i8bHy8 pic.twitter.com/1VdKihhvLr
What surprised me was the MEH!! comments below. Even Guardian posters have a seam of contempt for mainstream politicians a mile thick.
I agree with Son of OGH as regards an exceptionally high turnout in the Scottish Referendum Vote which opens up the prospect of a high YES vote where Ladbrokes are offering 8/1 against the No vote being between 30% - 35% and 5/1 against it being between 35% and 40%.
Those of a nervous disposition can cover both these bands, staking 40% and 60% respectively in each case to produce winning odds of 2.6/1 on the combined stake in either case should this bet prove successful.
I'm on but DYOR.
J.Enric Vives @jevives 1h
Lord Rennard may win back a key role within Lib Dems, suggests minister: Despite defying Nick Clegg's demand t... http://bit.ly/1en8vj3
Harvard University professor Samuel P. Huntington stated in 2004 that:
“ Demographically, socially and culturally, the reconquista of the Southwest United States by Mexico is well under way. No other immigrant group in U.S. history has asserted or could assert a historical claim to U.S. territory. Mexicans and Mexican-Americans can and do make that claim. ”
Neo-liberal political writer Mickey Kaus has remarked,
“ If you talk to people in Mexico... if you get them drunk in a bar, they'll say we're taking it back, sorry. That's not an uncommon sentiment in Mexico, so why can't we take it seriously here? This is like a Quebec problem if France was next door to Canada
Would the US really resort to force if it could not get a majority for union at the ballot box? Although of course the prospect is highly unlikely, Absolut Vodka even tried to cash in on the prospect
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/laplaza/2008/04/mexico-reconque.html
(Well, FFS, its a more interesting subject than non-betting posts on Scotland which make up about half of this site these days)
Parliament's Watchdog Investigates Claims That Conservative Party Conference Sex Party Was 'Funded By Expenses' http://ow.ly/vJzq4
Cllr.Brian Silvester @CllrBSilvester
Over 50% of MPs (350+) had to pay back expenses they falsely claimed. Not one minister resigned. Should they have? http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/7149528/MPs-expenses-350-ordered-to-pay-back-1m-on-their-claims.html …
Mr. Llama, fair bit of twittering (from birds) when I walked the hound this morning. Saw a squirrel, again, as well. Think there's a breeding pair here.
Historically, undecideds have tended to break very heavily for the status quo in referendums.
And people often emotionally want independence (and say that when queried). But when in the privacy of the ballot box choose the safe option. Scots who fear for the future of an independent Scotland may I'm afraid - say "Yes" when speaking to a pollster or their mates, but vote "No" when it comes to putting an 'x' in a box.
I think the polls will overstate 'yes' by five points or more.
Which sort of begs the question of exactly who were all those tory activist "swivel-eyed loons" the chumocracy were ranting about? Where could they all be hiding?
And B/ that's undecideds not those who aren't on the electoral register who are notoriously hard to reach and GOTV for. Make no mistake though, the YES campaign are throwing a HUGE amount of effort into registering them. Not so for the NO campaign. Why would that be do you think?
Maybe you have a completely unscientific anecdote to explain that too?
The assumption that the electorate are inherently conservative and that the undecided voters invariably vote against change is factually wrong and empirically incorrect. Moreover, it gives Better Together a false sense of security that they can ill afford.'
http://tinyurl.com/qesanmy
Sounds like they're desperately trying to find a way out of a mess of their own making now.
It's just been mentioned on Radio 4 that William Kemp, one of Shakespeare's actors, once morris danced from London to Norwich in nine days. Someone repeated it a few years ago:
http://swns.com/news/morris-dancer-jigs-120-miles-from-london-to-norwich-16216/
Put it this way, if Clegg keeps doing as calamitously as he has been then there's inevitably going to be a whisper campaign against him even if it doesn't succeed in toppling him. Rennard has the ammunition and the contacts to make that happen. Clegg needs Rennard back like a hole in the head.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/i/b0403n5l/?t=2m50s
Re Clegg, it must be reasonably likely that it will be made clear to him at the end of this year that it might be time to step down. The question then becomes: Farron, Lamb or someone else.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/retailandconsumer/10764206/Subway-exploring-Formula-One-sponsorship.html
Morris dancing: an act of Shakespearean magnificence!
And then .... Clint Eastwood arrives :
"So Putin .... Are you feeling lucky punk ?"
Problem for the lib dems is Clegg really does seem convinced that he should stay. Nothing else can explain the 'Farage' strategy. The ostrich faction around Clegg really do seem convinced that they can rehabilitate him among the voters with radio phone ins and debates. They are very, very wrong. He is toxic and that will not change.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dt7vD6_tblw
Best F1-related ad is this, though:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j4Q_9VYU9FE
Is Qvortrup a psephologist or a Danish keyboard layout?
Alun Wyburn-Powell @liberalhistory 1h
How will the coalition end? Cameron and Clegg may look to the precedent set by the 1945 caretaker government http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/archives/33103 …
You have to wonder if Cammie or Clegg have even given it that much thought yet. Sooner or later they will have to. I would guess the May elections aftermath will start concentrating minds on both sides very sharply as to how it all ends.
I think someone wants to take you for a walk.
Margot Parker @MargotLJParker 1h
Tories face coming third behind Ukip in Euro poll | via @Telegraph http://fw.to/MY1vvqB
Calamity Clegg's been doing that for years and it hasn't helped. Quite the opposite in fact.
"...therefore she has no descendants."
kings and queens do usually have relatives, and after enough blood and a judicial lubrication, the lines of succession are miraculously unbroken.
If you want a sandwich, tuna salad, bbq, egg salad, pimento cheese, turkey on wheat, ham and cheese on rye - all are $1.50 each.
A soft drink, pink lemonade, or a sports drink will cost you $1. Domestic beer $2, imported beer $3.
Candy, chips or crackers all $1 each. Ice cream is $1.50.
If all that eating gives you a headache, no problem. You can buy aspirin or tylenol for $0.50 each,
No: 55 - 60.
Independence for Scotland clearly has advantages. Go Scotland, go !
Sorry - missed this, apologies for delay. Point taken, indeed had not considered this. But even if the SNP breaks up - which I am not particularly convinced it will, so mibbes aye, mibbes naw - I can't easily see your scenario happening for the simple reason that the SNP is now seen by many as well to the left of Labour (as run by Ms Lamont and Mr Miliband). See Political Compass website for instance.
I'd put more money on SLAB splitting (or downsizing) and some of it hopping over the SNP to the left end of the spectrum and something almost a Tommy Sheridan-SSP position. Welcome back Keir Hardie!
There is also the factor that if there is a Yes vote, then unionists are not going to do well thereafter if there is any suspicion that they might put the rUK's interests ahead of Scotland's (fairly or otherwise). So any election before the completion of full negotiations is going to put a premium on the Scottish parties splitting off from London - which would a priori break up Labour and the Tories (not sure about LDs). This would force shakeups and possible further splits/resignations/shifts of allegiance to e.g. SNP or plain old independent (like Mr Canavan). That would apply to the 2015 UKGE (assuming, I know, but let's let that lie pro tem...) and 2016 Scottish GE (even on the current timescales). SNP might break up in the fullness of time but I'd put it at a cycle on beyond that, once politics has settled down in the new constitution.
Aid to the downtrodden masses?
It was the same in Ireland.
People love a "revolution" as long as it is only a few dollars in a collection box.
They tend to be not so keen if it is in their own backyard.
Alan Cairns 3.34:08
Edward Timpson 3.42:24
Dan Jarvis 3.45:08
Sadiq Khan 4.19:47
Andy Burnham 4.26:19
Graham Evans 4.43:56
Jason McCartney 4.57:35
Ed Balls 5:14:13
Back Kingman for the Guineas with Sportingbet at sportingbet. (13/8 2.62)
Lay off stake on Betfair at 2.28