politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why Johnson’s TV debate strategy could be a mistake

rottenborough said:

Benpointer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Benpointer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

ydoethur said:

ozymandias said:

Endillion said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Corbyn has the ability to skewer Johnson on Brexit IMHO, if he can get him on the ropes in terms of what he intends to actually deliver.

So far it's "get Brexit done" but very few have asked "what the hell does that mean"?

Er, what? It means signing the deal he's agreed with the EU, leaving on or before 31 Jan, and then agreeing the trade agreement everyone says he can't get, having learnt nothing from being wrong about the deal he wasn't supposed to be able to get.

You really think clarity on Brexit is a strength for Corbyn?

Corbyn couldn't care less about Brexit one way or another. He's neutral remember. He wants to talk about class war and socialist revolution. With Free broadband.

At 30mbps.

How do people cope with only 30 Mbps?

It helps to live on your own so no other bastard is stealing your WiFi signal.

This is the broadband speed I have to share with four others. It is a hard life.

What on earth can you possibly do to need all that?

Seriously, I get 48Mbps down and 14 up - I certainly wouldn't pay for more.

I'm only paying £26.99 a month for that, got a good deal with Virgin.

I have the kids on PS4, my parents are silver surfers, my father is constantly streaming UHD content on Netflix/Amazon Prime, my mother is regular video calling her friends and family all across the world.

Me I use it to upload content to the UK's most popular political blog and watch a lot of UHD content on Sky.

Right - makes more sense when you put it like that.

And what happens to Virgin when the free owls fibres are being distributed to every voter?

Should be wireless.

Nationalise SkyNet. What could possibly go wrong?

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

ABERDEEN NORTH INFO:

https://twitter.com/KevinStewartSNP/status/1196549132074278913

Turns out he posted on social media that he likes pineapple on pizza.

rottenborough said:

Benpointer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Benpointer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

ydoethur said:

ozymandias said:

Endillion said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Corbyn has the ability to skewer Johnson on Brexit IMHO, if he can get him on the ropes in terms of what he intends to actually deliver.

So far it's "get Brexit done" but very few have asked "what the hell does that mean"?

Er, what? It means signing the deal he's agreed with the EU, leaving on or before 31 Jan, and then agreeing the trade agreement everyone says he can't get, having learnt nothing from being wrong about the deal he wasn't supposed to be able to get.

You really think clarity on Brexit is a strength for Corbyn?

Corbyn couldn't care less about Brexit one way or another. He's neutral remember. He wants to talk about class war and socialist revolution. With Free broadband.

At 30mbps.

How do people cope with only 30 Mbps?

It helps to live on your own so no other bastard is stealing your WiFi signal.

This is the broadband speed I have to share with four others. It is a hard life.

What on earth can you possibly do to need all that?

Seriously, I get 48Mbps down and 14 up - I certainly wouldn't pay for more.

I'm only paying £26.99 a month for that, got a good deal with Virgin.

I have the kids on PS4, my parents are silver surfers, my father is constantly streaming UHD content on Netflix/Amazon Prime, my mother is regular video calling her friends and family all across the world.

Me I use it to upload content to the UK's most popular political blog and watch a lot of UHD content on Sky.

Right - makes more sense when you put it like that.

And what happens to Virgin when the free owls fibres are being distributed to every voter?

What eventually happens to most virgins?

TheScreamingEagles said:

This sounds weird but the days of a 56k dial-up modem were more satisfying. You had to work for your internet - and rack-up a nice bill while you were doing it.
And keeping your parents off the phone.....

The feeling of "will it connect" was a daily excitement.

I remember those days, remember the heady days of AOL and Freeserve.

Yes, they have an oddly romantic flavour, like steam trains. But I still use AOL for all my email!

Arthur said:

rottenborough said:

Benpointer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Benpointer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

ydoethur said:

ozymandias said:

Endillion said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Corbyn has the ability to skewer Johnson on Brexit IMHO, if he can get him on the ropes in terms of what he intends to actually deliver.

So far it's "get Brexit done" but very few have asked "what the hell does that mean"?

Er, what? It means signing the deal he's agreed with the EU, leaving on or before 31 Jan, and then agreeing the trade agreement everyone says he can't get, having learnt nothing from being wrong about the deal he wasn't supposed to be able to get.

You really think clarity on Brexit is a strength for Corbyn?

Corbyn couldn't care less about Brexit one way or another. He's neutral remember. He wants to talk about class war and socialist revolution. With Free broadband.

At 30mbps.

How do people cope with only 30 Mbps?

It helps to live on your own so no other bastard is stealing your WiFi signal.

This is the broadband speed I have to share with four others. It is a hard life.

What on earth can you possibly do to need all that?

Seriously, I get 48Mbps down and 14 up - I certainly wouldn't pay for more.

I'm only paying £26.99 a month for that, got a good deal with Virgin.

I have the kids on PS4, my parents are silver surfers, my father is constantly streaming UHD content on Netflix/Amazon Prime, my mother is regular video calling her friends and family all across the world.

Me I use it to upload content to the UK's most popular political blog and watch a lot of UHD content on Sky.

Right - makes more sense when you put it like that.

And what happens to Virgin when the free owls fibres are being distributed to every voter?

What eventually happens to most virgins?

They play World of Warcraft.

FrancisUrquhart said:

rottenborough said:

To me, this photo as the air of a campaign that knows it is losing.

https://twitter.com/Rachael_Swindon/status/1196510004947357701

I think there was probably more people at slimming world.

And more cakes.

ozymandias said:

rottenborough said:

Benpointer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Benpointer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

ydoethur said:

ozymandias said:

Endillion said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Corbyn has the ability to skewer Johnson on Brexit IMHO, if he can get him on the ropes in terms of what he intends to actually deliver.

So far it's "get Brexit done" but very few have asked "what the hell does that mean"?

Er, what? It means signing the deal he's agreed with the EU, leaving on or before 31 Jan, and then agreeing the trade agreement everyone says he can't get, having learnt nothing from being wrong about the deal he wasn't supposed to be able to get.

You really think clarity on Brexit is a strength for Corbyn?

Corbyn couldn't care less about Brexit one way or another. He's neutral remember. He wants to talk about class war and socialist revolution. With Free broadband.

At 30mbps.

How do people cope with only 30 Mbps?

It helps to live on your own so no other bastard is stealing your WiFi signal.

This is the broadband speed I have to share with four others. It is a hard life.

What on earth can you possibly do to need all that?

Seriously, I get 48Mbps down and 14 up - I certainly wouldn't pay for more.

I'm only paying £26.99 a month for that, got a good deal with Virgin.

I have the kids on PS4, my parents are silver surfers, my father is constantly streaming UHD content on Netflix/Amazon Prime, my mother is regular video calling her friends and family all across the world.

Me I use it to upload content to the UK's most popular political blog and watch a lot of UHD content on Sky.

Right - makes more sense when you put it like that.

And what happens to Virgin when the free owls fibres are being distributed to every voter?

I get the feeling the "Free Broadband" is Corbyn's Edstone moment.

It is indeed Virgin on the ridiculous.

TheScreamingEagles said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

ABERDEEN NORTH INFO:

https://twitter.com/KevinStewartSNP/status/1196549132074278913

Turns out he posted on social media that he likes pineapple on pizza.

THE MONSTER.

Bad news for this to happen after nominations have closed.

https://twitter.com/MrDanDonoghue/status/1196548093254275079

Alphabet_Soup said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

I do think the Tory Party has a huge Islamophobia problem, it just doesn't get reported as much as Labour's anti-Semitism

And Jewish terrorist attacks on the UK don't get reported as much as Islamic attacks. Must be a conspiracy.

What a foolish and unpleasant statement.

Aren't we all in danger of over estimating the importance of these debates? I know it's the job of the media and political sites like this one to hype them up, but are they really the be all and end all, as many appear to suggest? Unless either of them seriously screws up, perhaps by insulting a member of the audience, or suggesting a re-introduction of slavery or something, I cannot see them having any marked effect on voting intention. The manifestos will be far more important.

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

ABERDEEN NORTH INFO:

https://twitter.com/KevinStewartSNP/status/1196549132074278913

There is something almost admirable about this publication's lack of pretensions to be a source of news.

Casino_Royale said:

This election is very very far from a slam dunk for Boris. The electorate is volatile, frustrated and exhausted. And he could easily fall short of a majority.

Anyone who doubts that needs their head examined.

Yep. I still reckon we will end up having another GE in 2020.

Jason said:

Aren't we all in danger of over estimating the importance of these debates? I know it's the job of the media and political sites like this one to hype them up, but are they really the be all and end all, as many appear to suggest? Unless either of them seriously screws up, perhaps by insulting a member of the audience, or suggesting a re-introduction of slavery or something, I cannot see them having any marked effect on voting intention. The manifestos will be far more important.

Wasn't it true that before 2017 manifestos and the campaign were actually of no consequence whatsoever. Apart from f*ckups like Gillian Duffy. Even then that didn't really change much.

Cleggasm excepted in the debates obvs but that was the first time we had the debates so they were a novelty. Now they're just "meh".

Jason said:

Aren't we all in danger of over estimating the importance of these debates? I know it's the job of the media and political sites like this one to hype them up, but are they really the be all and end all, as many appear to suggest? Unless either of them seriously screws up, perhaps by insulting a member of the audience, or suggesting a re-introduction of slavery or something, I cannot see them having any marked effect on voting intention. The manifestos will be far more important.

Yes. I think people have made up their mind about this election and don't see much changing with the debates,

ozymandias said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Perhaps it is the time of year or they are still planned, but in 2017 wasn't Jezza doing big open air public speeches most days up and down the country by now?

That was in the days when LabourLive was considered a good idea.

I'd forgotten JezFest! Maybe they're saving it all for the end, going with a big rally in, say, Sheffield?

https://twitter.com/LauraPidcockMP/status/1196532928110616577

Blair/Brown were working on just that.

But apparently they are just red tories who should f**k off etc etc

ydoethur said:

Ave_it said:

rottenborough said:

To me, this photo as the air of a campaign that knows it is losing.

https://twitter.com/Rachael_Swindon/status/1196510004947357701

Surprised LAB campaigning in Mansfield. CON Maj 20%?

Given it was a narrow Tory gain last time after decades as a Labour stronghold, if they were NOT campaigning there we would know they really did fear wipeout.

Where does this 20% come from? It’s 2.1%.

Yougov weighting?

Jason said:

Aren't we all in danger of over estimating the importance of these debates? I know it's the job of the media and political sites like this one to hype them up, but are they really the be all and end all, as many appear to suggest? Unless either of them seriously screws up, perhaps by insulting a member of the audience, or suggesting a re-introduction of slavery or something, I cannot see them having any marked effect on voting intention. The manifestos will be far more important.

Of course they may have little effect, but a serious screw up is the sort of thing to look out for - Labour are currently on track for what they got last time, and need to not screw up. Boris definitely needs to not screw up. There's big potential for something to have an effect, even if the most likely outcome is a no score draw.

I think Boris should go serious (I know) and stick to attacking Corbyn on Labour’s manifesto. If he goes all foam-flecked and starts calling him a terrorist or anti-semite, it won't work. And he needs to inspire people about why he's a Tory, contrasting his posititive view of the UK with someone who clearly doesn't like the UK very much.

TheScreamingEagles said:

One of the truly sad things about David Herdson quitting the Tory party is that we won’t get a feel for how the campaign is going in the run up to polling day.

Don't we have a direct line to CCHQ and Boris's every thought via @HYUFD?

Luckyguy1983 said:

I think Boris should go serious (I know) and stick to attacking Corbyn on Labour’s manifesto. If he goes all foam-flecked and starts calling him a terrorist or anti-semite, it won't work. And he needs to inspire people about why he's a Tory, contrasting his posititive view of the UK with someone who clearly doesn't like the UK very much.

When is the tax bombshell campaign to be launched?

FrancisUrquhart said:

Perhaps it is the time of year or they are still planned, but in 2017 wasn't Jezza doing big open air public speeches most days up and down the country by now?

He's doing plenty of speeches, as quoted by Dr Spyn downthread:

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/uk/where-have-the-main-party-leaders-visited-so-far-38702425.html

The weather is not so conducive to open-air rallies, sadly.

https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/1196548369931354112

NickPalmer said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Perhaps it is the time of year or they are still planned, but in 2017 wasn't Jezza doing big open air public speeches most days up and down the country by now?

He's doing plenty of speeches, as quoted by Dr Spyn downthread:

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/uk/where-have-the-main-party-leaders-visited-so-far-38702425.html

The weather is not so conducive to open-air rallies, sadly.

I didn't say he wasn't, I said last time he was doing lots of public open air ones where the advantage is people see a crowd as they are pottering around and go and look what is going on. And he seemed to get some good crowds.

So far, the bits I have seen are smallish rooms of folk that other than the odd screamy shouty heckler appear to be the party faithful.

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

ABERDEEN NORTH INFO:

https://twitter.com/KevinStewartSNP/status/1196549132074278913

Con Aberdeen candidates aren't particularly good are they?

Just need Ross Thompson's replacement to turn out to be a admirer of Radiohead and it will be a blackhole of disaster.

ydoethur said:

Ave_it said:

rottenborough said:

To me, this photo as the air of a campaign that knows it is losing.

https://twitter.com/Rachael_Swindon/status/1196510004947357701

Surprised LAB campaigning in Mansfield. CON Maj 20%?

Given it was a narrow Tory gain last time after decades as a Labour stronghold, if they were NOT campaigning there we would know they really did fear wipeout.

Where does this 20% come from? It’s 2.1%.

I may have made it up. It's an Ave it forecast for GE2019.
Hope you are voting CON in Cannock

Avoid SKY on election night if you didn't like Speaker B

https://news.sky.com/story/general-election-john-bercow-to-join-sky-news-for-election-night-coverage-11864334

Alistair said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

ABERDEEN NORTH INFO:

https://twitter.com/KevinStewartSNP/status/1196549132074278913

Con Aberdeen candidates aren't particularly good are they?

Just need Ross Thompson's replacement to turn out to be a admirer of Radiohead and it will be a blackhole of disaster.

There's a rumour he likes pineapple on his rowies.

GIN1138 said:

Avoid SKY on election night if you don't like Speaker B

https://news.sky.com/story/general-election-john-bercow-to-join-sky-news-for-election-night-coverage-11864334

Oh FFS...Sky normally have the best election coverage, especially with Thrasher. Now I have to put with King John being a smug bastard.

ozymandias said:

rottenborough said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

ozymandias said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Perhaps it is the time of year or they are still planned, but in 2017 wasn't Jezza doing big open air public speeches most days up and down the country by now?

That was in the days when LabourLive was considered a good idea.

I'd forgotten JezFest! Maybe they're saving it all for the end, going with a big rally in, say, Sheffield?

https://twitter.com/ScouseGirlMedia/status/1196550421084545025

For "rally" read "room".

'We're ALLLLRIIIIIIGHT' etc etc

MarqueeMark said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

I do think the Tory Party has a huge Islamophobia problem, it just doesn't get reported as much as Labour's anti-Semitism

The wish is father to the thought.....

Several minutes later...

SCon GE candidate suspended after making Islamophobic posts.

kle4 said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/LauraPidcockMP/status/1196532928110616577

Blair/Brown were working on just that.

But apparently they are just red tories who should f**k off etc etc

And if the Tories do win a majority I guess that means the public want child poverty to increase I guess.

Jason said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Jason said:

Aren't we all in danger of over estimating the importance of these debates? I know it's the job of the media and political sites like this one to hype them up, but are they really the be all and end all, as many appear to suggest? Unless either of them seriously screws up, perhaps by insulting a member of the audience, or suggesting a re-introduction of slavery or something, I cannot see them having any marked effect on voting intention. The manifestos will be far more important.

It will be interesting to know how excited people are for them. When we first had them there was a huge amount of novelty and the nation tuned it. I remember loads of people asking me if I was going to watch them.

I honestly haven't spoken to anybody this time around who is talking about them. It will be generally interesting to see how many people tune in.

That's where all of the spurious comparisons with 2017 start unravelling. That campaign was so very different to this one, in so many ways. Corbyn was at his peak then, and yes, he did tap into public disgruntlement very effectively. But somewhere along the line that seems to have dissipated. And of course, the Tories scored one of the biggest own goals in electoral history. I just can't see them doing that again. Labour, on the other hand, have scored one of their own with Brexit. Their 2017 manifesto stated they would abide by the result of the 2016 referendum. They haven't, and the millions of Labour leave voters will punish them for it. Just like the LDs got punished for the tuition fees.

Problem is you call comparisons with 2017 spurious, and perhaps they are, but then you rely on things like 'seems to have dissipated', 'I cannot see them doing that [own goal] again', things which might be true, but seem to based off the feeling that 2017 cannot happen again because it doesn't seem like it should, which is pretty, well, spurious. They didn't score own goals on purpose last time, so while they will try even harder to avoid another this time it doesn't mean they cannot.

Well you could say that more or less about anything that's ever happened or ever will happen. It's just a balance of probabilities.

Benpointer said:

What is the expected outcome in North Down as Sylvia Hermon is not standing - is it a nailed on DUP gain?

No, the Alliance and the Ulster Unionists have a good chance.

I love GE's for the creepy levels of enthusiasm party activists have (and you can tell when it is real). It can be a great thing, I'm sure, but the sheer, unbridled passion for fudgily ideological platforms which they have not even had confirmed to them yet (so be careful not to condemn a plan the leadership is about to say is your own!) is weird.

And in some sense I think that's one reason I have trouble with politicians and the really intense party members. On here we know we're all a bit weird for being political wonks, but politicians and activists act as though they genuinely believe every member of the public is as angry and passionate as them, about the exact same things as them, without any hint they themselves are weird for being so angry or passionate. Now granted, it'd be a strange and counter productive thing to do to say how weird being a party activist is (not that none have ever said so), I don't actually expect most politicians or party activists to openly reflect how normal people are not super angry at Labour/Tories, but it means I find rallies and fiery rhetoric slightly unsettling.

Jason said:

Well you could say that more or less about anything that's ever happened or ever will happen. It's just a balance of probabilities.

Yes it is, so why on balance are 2017 comparisons spurious other than feeling that things will be different because they must be?

Andy_JS said:

Benpointer said:

What is the expected outcome in North Down as Sylvia Hermon is not standing - is it a nailed on DUP gain?

No, the Alliance and the Ulster Unionists have a good chance.

Ok thanks

Jezza Hunt making a hunt of himself over HK on Newsnight.

In Euro 2019 CON would have got 0 seats. So could still be LAB overall majority.

ozymandias said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Arthur said:

Jason said:

Aren't we all in danger of over estimating the importance of these debates? I know it's the job of the media and political sites like this one to hype them up, but are they really the be all and end all, as many appear to suggest? Unless either of them seriously screws up, perhaps by insulting a member of the audience, or suggesting a re-introduction of slavery or something, I cannot see them having any marked effect on voting intention. The manifestos will be far more important.

The effect of "I agree with Nick" in 2010 (15 April):

There was real buzz about the 2010 debates. I remember everybody I spoke to was really engaged with them, the media were trailing them for days in advance. Loads of stories about who was getting prepped by whom, who was standing in to play each of the characters, the look of the set, who will be in the spin room, how it will all work.

Perhaps they are again, but I am not feeling it. Perhaps a lot of the media coverage has been overshadowed by Airmiles Andy stuff.

The novelty has died. I think it’s as simple as that.

In addition to article after article on Andy, it is also the start of I am Celeb. Not something I ever watch, but again it is another distraction for the media.

I have just been on the Guardian website, and you would be hard to know there is a debate tomorrow. The Mail one small article saying Boris will stick it to Jezza, surrounded by loads of articles on Andy and I'm a Celeb. The Times can't see anything.

kle4 said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/Rachael_Swindon/status/1196558956799385602

That's nice, it can indeed be a real pain to find a place that will accept a pet.

Would it extend to my pet Hippo?

kle4 said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/Rachael_Swindon/status/1196558956799385602

That's nice, it can indeed be a real pain to find a place that will accept a pet.

LAB now pro cat party. 10% CORBYNISTA swing!

Ave_it said:

kle4 said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/Rachael_Swindon/status/1196558956799385602

That's nice, it can indeed be a real pain to find a place that will accept a pet.

LAB now pro cat party. 10% CORBYNISTA swing!

Dog people take exception. Swing back!

ozymandias said:

kle4 said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/Rachael_Swindon/status/1196558956799385602

That's nice, it can indeed be a real pain to find a place that will accept a pet.

Would it extend to my pet Hippo?

If you can domesticate one of those vicious buggers, sure.

Trump campaign getting worried:

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2019/11/pete-buttigieg-iowa-surge-makes-him-a-target

Casino_Royale said:

This election is very very far from a slam dunk for Boris. The electorate is volatile, frustrated and exhausted. And he could easily fall short of a majority.

We can always hope ...

Theuniondivvie said:

MarqueeMark said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

I do think the Tory Party has a huge Islamophobia problem, it just doesn't get reported as much as Labour's anti-Semitism

The wish is father to the thought.....

Several minutes later...

SCon GE candidate suspended after making Islamophobic posts.

Source, please?

The only thing I've seen was on here, and referred to "antisemitism and homophobia".

Edit: he seems to have made a statement that references David Irving. Which would seem to not indicate Islamophobia.

Endillion said:

Theuniondivvie said:

MarqueeMark said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

I do think the Tory Party has a huge Islamophobia problem, it just doesn't get reported as much as Labour's anti-Semitism

The wish is father to the thought.....

Several minutes later...

SCon GE candidate suspended after making Islamophobic posts.

Source, please?

The only thing I've seen was on here, and referred to "antisemitism and homophobia".

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-50468770?ns_source=twitter&ns_linkname=scotland&ns_campaign=bbc_scotland_news&ns_mchannel=social

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Endillion said:

Theuniondivvie said:

MarqueeMark said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

I do think the Tory Party has a huge Islamophobia problem, it just doesn't get reported as much as Labour's anti-Semitism

The wish is father to the thought.....

Several minutes later...

SCon GE candidate suspended after making Islamophobic posts.

Source, please?

The only thing I've seen was on here, and referred to "antisemitism and homophobia".

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-50468770?ns_source=twitter&ns_linkname=scotland&ns_campaign=bbc_scotland_news&ns_mchannel=social

Thanks. So, not Islamophobia, then.

MarqueeMark said:

ozymandias said:

Ave_it said:

kle4 said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/Rachael_Swindon/status/1196558956799385602

That's nice, it can indeed be a real pain to find a place that will accept a pet.

LAB now pro cat party. 10% CORBYNISTA swing!

Dog people take exception. Swing back!

RSPB take huge offence at billions of extra dead birds brought in by cats.

You don't piss off the RSPB.

Nationalise them. Birds are tools of the capitalist state to suppress the worker. Under Labour birds will work for the benefit of all. Not just a few privileged twitchers.

Iowa is turning into a fascinating event for the Dems.

A Buttigieg win could transform that betting market overnight imho.