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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why Johnson’s TV debate strategy could be a mistake

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  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,696
    edited November 2019
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Are we expecting the manifestos to be published this week?

    I'm genuinely interested to see what ends up in them given all the trailers we've had.

    Labour's is this Thursday I believe. LDs should be smart and get theirs out Wednesday, try to make Labour's look lame by comparison (apart from the glorious spending which cannot be matched), or that Labour are following the LDs lead.
    And the Tories?

    Or do they not really feel the need for one, given they have an oven-ready Brexit to offer?
    I think they'll delay it as long as they can. It's expected, but again I think they are scared of what happened last time.
    They can't delay too long because the lack of a manifesto will become an open goal for the opposition parties.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,722

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Endillion said:

    Corbyn has the ability to skewer Johnson on Brexit IMHO, if he can get him on the ropes in terms of what he intends to actually deliver.

    So far it's "get Brexit done" but very few have asked "what the hell does that mean"?

    Er, what? It means signing the deal he's agreed with the EU, leaving on or before 31 Jan, and then agreeing the trade agreement everyone says he can't get, having learnt nothing from being wrong about the deal he wasn't supposed to be able to get.

    You really think clarity on Brexit is a strength for Corbyn?
    Corbyn couldn't care less about Brexit one way or another. He's neutral remember. He wants to talk about class war and socialist revolution. With Free broadband.
    At 30mbps.
    How do people cope with only 30 Mbps?
    It helps to live on your own so no other bastard is stealing your WiFi signal.
    This is the broadband speed I have to share with four others. It is a hard life.


    What on earth can you possibly do to need all that?

    Seriously, I get 48Mbps down and 14 up - I certainly wouldn't pay for more.
    I'm only paying £26.99 a month for that, got a good deal with Virgin.

    I have the kids on PS4, my parents are silver surfers, my father is constantly streaming UHD content on Netflix/Amazon Prime, my mother is regular video calling her friends and family all across the world.

    Me I use it to upload content to the UK's most popular political blog and watch a lot of UHD content on Sky.
    Right - makes more sense when you put it like that.
    And what happens to Virgin when the free owls fibres are being distributed to every voter?
    Should be wireless.

    Nationalise SkyNet. What could possibly go wrong?
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Are we expecting the manifestos to be published this week?

    I'm genuinely interested to see what ends up in them given all the trailers we've had.

    Labour's is this Thursday I believe. LDs should be smart and get theirs out Wednesday, try to make Labour's look lame by comparison (apart from the glorious spending which cannot be matched), or that Labour are following the LDs lead.
    And the Tories?

    Or do they not really feel the need for one, given they have an oven-ready Brexit to offer?
    I think they'll delay it as long as they can. It's expected, but again I think they are scared of what happened last time.
    They can't delay too long because the lack of a manifesto will become an open goal for the opposition parties.
    They'll be the headline act....
  • Turns out he posted on social media that he likes pineapple on pizza.
  • ArthurArthur Posts: 63
    GB:

    United Kingdom Independence Party: 43 candidates.
    Plaid Cymru: 36.
    Christian People's Alliance: 29.
    Yorkshire Party: 28.
    Monster Raving Loony Party: 24.
    Social Democratic Party: 20.
    Liberal Party: 19.
  • ArthurArthur Posts: 63

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Endillion said:

    Corbyn has the ability to skewer Johnson on Brexit IMHO, if he can get him on the ropes in terms of what he intends to actually deliver.

    So far it's "get Brexit done" but very few have asked "what the hell does that mean"?

    Er, what? It means signing the deal he's agreed with the EU, leaving on or before 31 Jan, and then agreeing the trade agreement everyone says he can't get, having learnt nothing from being wrong about the deal he wasn't supposed to be able to get.

    You really think clarity on Brexit is a strength for Corbyn?
    Corbyn couldn't care less about Brexit one way or another. He's neutral remember. He wants to talk about class war and socialist revolution. With Free broadband.
    At 30mbps.
    How do people cope with only 30 Mbps?
    It helps to live on your own so no other bastard is stealing your WiFi signal.
    This is the broadband speed I have to share with four others. It is a hard life.


    What on earth can you possibly do to need all that?

    Seriously, I get 48Mbps down and 14 up - I certainly wouldn't pay for more.
    I'm only paying £26.99 a month for that, got a good deal with Virgin.

    I have the kids on PS4, my parents are silver surfers, my father is constantly streaming UHD content on Netflix/Amazon Prime, my mother is regular video calling her friends and family all across the world.

    Me I use it to upload content to the UK's most popular political blog and watch a lot of UHD content on Sky.
    Right - makes more sense when you put it like that.
    And what happens to Virgin when the free owls fibres are being distributed to every voter?
    What eventually happens to most virgins?
  • I do think the Tory Party has a huge Islamophobia problem, it just doesn't get reported as much as Labour's anti-Semitism

    And Jewish terrorist attacks on the UK don't get reported as much as Islamic attacks. Must be a conspiracy.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,533



    This sounds weird but the days of a 56k dial-up modem were more satisfying. You had to work for your internet - and rack-up a nice bill while you were doing it.
    And keeping your parents off the phone.....

    The feeling of "will it connect" was a daily excitement.

    I remember those days, remember the heady days of AOL and Freeserve.

    Yes, they have an oddly romantic flavour, like steam trains. But I still use AOL for all my email!
  • It must be time for a bad poll for the Tories.
  • Arthur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Endillion said:

    Corbyn has the ability to skewer Johnson on Brexit IMHO, if he can get him on the ropes in terms of what he intends to actually deliver.

    So far it's "get Brexit done" but very few have asked "what the hell does that mean"?

    Er, what? It means signing the deal he's agreed with the EU, leaving on or before 31 Jan, and then agreeing the trade agreement everyone says he can't get, having learnt nothing from being wrong about the deal he wasn't supposed to be able to get.

    You really think clarity on Brexit is a strength for Corbyn?
    Corbyn couldn't care less about Brexit one way or another. He's neutral remember. He wants to talk about class war and socialist revolution. With Free broadband.
    At 30mbps.
    How do people cope with only 30 Mbps?
    It helps to live on your own so no other bastard is stealing your WiFi signal.
    This is the broadband speed I have to share with four others. It is a hard life.


    What on earth can you possibly do to need all that?

    Seriously, I get 48Mbps down and 14 up - I certainly wouldn't pay for more.
    I'm only paying £26.99 a month for that, got a good deal with Virgin.

    I have the kids on PS4, my parents are silver surfers, my father is constantly streaming UHD content on Netflix/Amazon Prime, my mother is regular video calling her friends and family all across the world.

    Me I use it to upload content to the UK's most popular political blog and watch a lot of UHD content on Sky.
    Right - makes more sense when you put it like that.
    And what happens to Virgin when the free owls fibres are being distributed to every voter?
    What eventually happens to most virgins?
    They play World of Warcraft.
  • To me, this photo as the air of a campaign that knows it is losing.

    https://twitter.com/Rachael_Swindon/status/1196510004947357701

    I think there was probably more people at slimming world.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503

    To me, this photo as the air of a campaign that knows it is losing.

    https://twitter.com/Rachael_Swindon/status/1196510004947357701

    I think there was probably more people at slimming world.
    And more cakes.
  • This election is very very far from a slam dunk for Boris. The electorate is volatile, frustrated and exhausted. And he could easily fall short of a majority.

    Anyone who doubts that needs their head examined.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Endillion said:

    Corbyn has the ability to skewer Johnson on Brexit IMHO, if he can get him on the ropes in terms of what he intends to actually deliver.

    So far it's "get Brexit done" but very few have asked "what the hell does that mean"?

    Er, what? It means signing the deal he's agreed with the EU, leaving on or before 31 Jan, and then agreeing the trade agreement everyone says he can't get, having learnt nothing from being wrong about the deal he wasn't supposed to be able to get.

    You really think clarity on Brexit is a strength for Corbyn?
    Corbyn couldn't care less about Brexit one way or another. He's neutral remember. He wants to talk about class war and socialist revolution. With Free broadband.
    At 30mbps.
    How do people cope with only 30 Mbps?
    It helps to live on your own so no other bastard is stealing your WiFi signal.
    This is the broadband speed I have to share with four others. It is a hard life.


    What on earth can you possibly do to need all that?

    Seriously, I get 48Mbps down and 14 up - I certainly wouldn't pay for more.
    I'm only paying £26.99 a month for that, got a good deal with Virgin.

    I have the kids on PS4, my parents are silver surfers, my father is constantly streaming UHD content on Netflix/Amazon Prime, my mother is regular video calling her friends and family all across the world.

    Me I use it to upload content to the UK's most popular political blog and watch a lot of UHD content on Sky.
    Right - makes more sense when you put it like that.
    And what happens to Virgin when the free owls fibres are being distributed to every voter?
    I get the feeling the "Free Broadband" is Corbyn's Edstone moment.
    It is indeed Virgin on the ridiculous.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,386

    It must be time for a bad poll for the Tories.

    First bad poll on December 12th will do nicely.
  • Turns out he posted on social media that he likes pineapple on pizza.
    THE MONSTER.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,696
    edited November 2019

    To me, this photo as the air of a campaign that knows it is losing.

    https://twitter.com/Rachael_Swindon/status/1196510004947357701

    I think there was probably more people at slimming world.
    It's unlikely that Slimming World was lightly attended.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,605
    Bad news for this to happen after nominations have closed.

    https://twitter.com/MrDanDonoghue/status/1196548093254275079
  • Perhaps it is the time of year or they are still planned, but in 2017 wasn't Jezza doing big open air public speeches most days up and down the country by now?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,386

    I do think the Tory Party has a huge Islamophobia problem, it just doesn't get reported as much as Labour's anti-Semitism

    And Jewish terrorist attacks on the UK don't get reported as much as Islamic attacks. Must be a conspiracy.
    What a foolish and unpleasant statement.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503

    Perhaps it is the time of year or they are still planned, but in 2017 wasn't Jezza doing big open air public speeches most days up and down the country by now?

    That was in the days when LabourLive was considered a good idea.
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    Aren't we all in danger of over estimating the importance of these debates? I know it's the job of the media and political sites like this one to hype them up, but are they really the be all and end all, as many appear to suggest? Unless either of them seriously screws up, perhaps by insulting a member of the audience, or suggesting a re-introduction of slavery or something, I cannot see them having any marked effect on voting intention. The manifestos will be far more important.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411

    To me, this photo as the air of a campaign that knows it is losing.

    https://twitter.com/Rachael_Swindon/status/1196510004947357701

    Surprised LAB campaigning in Mansfield. CON Maj 20%?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,488
    There is something almost admirable about this publication's lack of pretensions to be a source of news.
  • One of the truly sad things about David Herdson quitting the Tory party is that we won’t get a feel for how the campaign is going in the run up to polling day.
  • This election is very very far from a slam dunk for Boris. The electorate is volatile, frustrated and exhausted. And he could easily fall short of a majority.

    Anyone who doubts that needs their head examined.

    Yep. I still reckon we will end up having another GE in 2020.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,614

    To me, this photo as the air of a campaign that knows it is losing.

    https://twitter.com/Rachael_Swindon/status/1196510004947357701

    The two women in scarves on the right of the picture are Full of Win......
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    edited November 2019
    Jason said:

    Aren't we all in danger of over estimating the importance of these debates? I know it's the job of the media and political sites like this one to hype them up, but are they really the be all and end all, as many appear to suggest? Unless either of them seriously screws up, perhaps by insulting a member of the audience, or suggesting a re-introduction of slavery or something, I cannot see them having any marked effect on voting intention. The manifestos will be far more important.

    Wasn't it true that before 2017 manifestos and the campaign were actually of no consequence whatsoever. Apart from f*ckups like Gillian Duffy. Even then that didn't really change much.

    Cleggasm excepted in the debates obvs but that was the first time we had the debates so they were a novelty. Now they're just "meh".
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    Ave_it said:

    To me, this photo as the air of a campaign that knows it is losing.

    https://twitter.com/Rachael_Swindon/status/1196510004947357701

    Surprised LAB campaigning in Mansfield. CON Maj 20%?
    Given it was a narrow Tory gain last time after decades as a Labour stronghold, if they were NOT campaigning there we would know they really did fear wipeout.

    Where does this 20% come from? It’s 2.1%.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    Jason said:

    Aren't we all in danger of over estimating the importance of these debates? I know it's the job of the media and political sites like this one to hype them up, but are they really the be all and end all, as many appear to suggest? Unless either of them seriously screws up, perhaps by insulting a member of the audience, or suggesting a re-introduction of slavery or something, I cannot see them having any marked effect on voting intention. The manifestos will be far more important.

    Yes. I think people have made up their mind about this election and don't see much changing with the debates,
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,129
    edited November 2019
    Jason said:

    Aren't we all in danger of over estimating the importance of these debates? I know it's the job of the media and political sites like this one to hype them up, but are they really the be all and end all, as many appear to suggest? Unless either of them seriously screws up, perhaps by insulting a member of the audience, or suggesting a re-introduction of slavery or something, I cannot see them having any marked effect on voting intention. The manifestos will be far more important.

    It will be interesting to know how excited people are for them. When we first had them there was a huge amount of novelty and the nation tuned it. I remember loads of people asking me if I was going to watch them.

    I honestly haven't spoken to anybody this time around who is talking about them. It will be generally interesting to see how many people tune in.

    It is hard to see how they will affect things. Boris will be crap, Jezza will be fine, but will that matter as they are polar opposites. I guess the advantage for Jezza is he manages to convince more Remainers to vote Labour by getting the tone right.
  • Perhaps it is the time of year or they are still planned, but in 2017 wasn't Jezza doing big open air public speeches most days up and down the country by now?

    That was in the days when LabourLive was considered a good idea.
    I'd forgotten JezFest! Maybe they're saving it all for the end, going with a big rally in, say, Sheffield?
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503

    Perhaps it is the time of year or they are still planned, but in 2017 wasn't Jezza doing big open air public speeches most days up and down the country by now?

    That was in the days when LabourLive was considered a good idea.
    I'd forgotten JezFest! Maybe they're saving it all for the end, going with a big rally in, say, Sheffield?
    Sellafield more befitting.
  • https://twitter.com/LauraPidcockMP/status/1196532928110616577

    Blair/Brown were working on just that.

    But apparently they are just red tories who should f**k off etc etc
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,696
    What is the expected outcome in North Down as Sylvia Hermon is not standing - is it a nailed on DUP gain?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,386
    ydoethur said:

    Ave_it said:

    To me, this photo as the air of a campaign that knows it is losing.

    https://twitter.com/Rachael_Swindon/status/1196510004947357701

    Surprised LAB campaigning in Mansfield. CON Maj 20%?
    Given it was a narrow Tory gain last time after decades as a Labour stronghold, if they were NOT campaigning there we would know they really did fear wipeout.

    Where does this 20% come from? It’s 2.1%.
    Yougov weighting?
  • Perhaps it is the time of year or they are still planned, but in 2017 wasn't Jezza doing big open air public speeches most days up and down the country by now?

    That was in the days when LabourLive was considered a good idea.
    I'd forgotten JezFest! Maybe they're saving it all for the end, going with a big rally in, say, Sheffield?
    Sellafield more befitting.
    I'm getting a mental image of the TV drama 'Threads', I dunno why.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Jason said:

    Aren't we all in danger of over estimating the importance of these debates? I know it's the job of the media and political sites like this one to hype them up, but are they really the be all and end all, as many appear to suggest? Unless either of them seriously screws up, perhaps by insulting a member of the audience, or suggesting a re-introduction of slavery or something, I cannot see them having any marked effect on voting intention. The manifestos will be far more important.

    Of course they may have little effect, but a serious screw up is the sort of thing to look out for - Labour are currently on track for what they got last time, and need to not screw up. Boris definitely needs to not screw up. There's big potential for something to have an effect, even if the most likely outcome is a no score draw.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    edited November 2019

    Perhaps it is the time of year or they are still planned, but in 2017 wasn't Jezza doing big open air public speeches most days up and down the country by now?

    That was in the days when LabourLive was considered a good idea.
    I'd forgotten JezFest! Maybe they're saving it all for the end, going with a big rally in, say, Sheffield?
    Sellafield more befitting.
    I'm getting a mental image of the TV drama 'Threads', I dunno why.
    It's what the country will look like after 5 years of Corbynism? But Threads more cheerful and full of hope obviously.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,488
    I think Boris should go serious (I know) and stick to attacking Corbyn on Labour’s manifesto. If he goes all foam-flecked and starts calling him a terrorist or anti-semite, it won't work. And he needs to inspire people about why he's a Tory, contrasting his posititive view of the UK with someone who clearly doesn't like the UK very much.
  • Perhaps it is the time of year or they are still planned, but in 2017 wasn't Jezza doing big open air public speeches most days up and down the country by now?

    That was in the days when LabourLive was considered a good idea.
    I'd forgotten JezFest! Maybe they're saving it all for the end, going with a big rally in, say, Sheffield?
    https://twitter.com/ScouseGirlMedia/status/1196550421084545025
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,696

    One of the truly sad things about David Herdson quitting the Tory party is that we won’t get a feel for how the campaign is going in the run up to polling day.

    Don't we have a direct line to CCHQ and Boris's every thought via @HYUFD?
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503

    Perhaps it is the time of year or they are still planned, but in 2017 wasn't Jezza doing big open air public speeches most days up and down the country by now?

    That was in the days when LabourLive was considered a good idea.
    I'd forgotten JezFest! Maybe they're saving it all for the end, going with a big rally in, say, Sheffield?
    https://twitter.com/ScouseGirlMedia/status/1196550421084545025
    For "rally" read "room".
  • I think Boris should go serious (I know) and stick to attacking Corbyn on Labour’s manifesto. If he goes all foam-flecked and starts calling him a terrorist or anti-semite, it won't work. And he needs to inspire people about why he's a Tory, contrasting his posititive view of the UK with someone who clearly doesn't like the UK very much.

    When is the tax bombshell campaign to be launched?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    Perhaps it is the time of year or they are still planned, but in 2017 wasn't Jezza doing big open air public speeches most days up and down the country by now?

    That was in the days when LabourLive was considered a good idea.
    I'd forgotten JezFest! Maybe they're saving it all for the end, going with a big rally in, say, Sheffield?
    https://twitter.com/ScouseGirlMedia/status/1196550421084545025
    I think they are attributing motives to Boris that are easily disproven, because he wanted an Autumn election, not a Winter one.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,533

    Perhaps it is the time of year or they are still planned, but in 2017 wasn't Jezza doing big open air public speeches most days up and down the country by now?

    He's doing plenty of speeches, as quoted by Dr Spyn downthread:

    https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/uk/where-have-the-main-party-leaders-visited-so-far-38702425.html

    The weather is not so conducive to open-air rallies, sadly.
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614

    Jason said:

    Aren't we all in danger of over estimating the importance of these debates? I know it's the job of the media and political sites like this one to hype them up, but are they really the be all and end all, as many appear to suggest? Unless either of them seriously screws up, perhaps by insulting a member of the audience, or suggesting a re-introduction of slavery or something, I cannot see them having any marked effect on voting intention. The manifestos will be far more important.

    It will be interesting to know how excited people are for them. When we first had them there was a huge amount of novelty and the nation tuned it. I remember loads of people asking me if I was going to watch them.

    I honestly haven't spoken to anybody this time around who is talking about them. It will be generally interesting to see how many people tune in.
    That's where all of the spurious comparisons with 2017 start unravelling. That campaign was so very different to this one, in so many ways. Corbyn was at his peak then, and yes, he did tap into public disgruntlement very effectively. But somewhere along the line that seems to have dissipated. And of course, the Tories scored one of the biggest own goals in electoral history. I just can't see them doing that again. Labour, on the other hand, have scored one of their own with Brexit. Their 2017 manifesto stated they would abide by the result of the 2016 referendum. They haven't, and the millions of Labour leave voters will punish them for it. Just like the LDs got punished for the tuition fees.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    One of the truly sad things about David Herdson quitting the Tory party is that we won’t get a feel for how the campaign is going in the run up to polling day.

    Don't we have a direct line to CCHQ and Boris's every thought via @HYUFD?
    Yes, but CCHQ and Boris are not the campaign - they have to say how great things are all the time.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,129
    edited November 2019

    Perhaps it is the time of year or they are still planned, but in 2017 wasn't Jezza doing big open air public speeches most days up and down the country by now?

    He's doing plenty of speeches, as quoted by Dr Spyn downthread:

    https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/uk/where-have-the-main-party-leaders-visited-so-far-38702425.html

    The weather is not so conducive to open-air rallies, sadly.
    I didn't say he wasn't, I said last time he was doing lots of public open air ones where the advantage is people see a crowd as they are pottering around and go and look what is going on. And he seemed to get some good crowds.

    So far, the bits I have seen are smallish rooms of folk that other than the odd screamy shouty heckler appear to be the party faithful.
  • Perhaps it is the time of year or they are still planned, but in 2017 wasn't Jezza doing big open air public speeches most days up and down the country by now?

    That was in the days when LabourLive was considered a good idea.
    I'd forgotten JezFest! Maybe they're saving it all for the end, going with a big rally in, say, Sheffield?
    https://twitter.com/ScouseGirlMedia/status/1196550421084545025
    For "rally" read "room".
    No idea why the good people of Sheffield have not flooded in for a Monday evening with Burgon.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Con Aberdeen candidates aren't particularly good are they?

    Just need Ross Thompson's replacement to turn out to be a admirer of Radiohead and it will be a blackhole of disaster.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    edited November 2019

    https://twitter.com/LauraPidcockMP/status/1196532928110616577

    Blair/Brown were working on just that.

    But apparently they are just red tories who should f**k off etc etc

    And if the Tories do win a majority I guess that means the public want child poverty to increase I guess.
    Jason said:

    Jason said:

    Aren't we all in danger of over estimating the importance of these debates? I know it's the job of the media and political sites like this one to hype them up, but are they really the be all and end all, as many appear to suggest? Unless either of them seriously screws up, perhaps by insulting a member of the audience, or suggesting a re-introduction of slavery or something, I cannot see them having any marked effect on voting intention. The manifestos will be far more important.

    It will be interesting to know how excited people are for them. When we first had them there was a huge amount of novelty and the nation tuned it. I remember loads of people asking me if I was going to watch them.

    I honestly haven't spoken to anybody this time around who is talking about them. It will be generally interesting to see how many people tune in.
    That's where all of the spurious comparisons with 2017 start unravelling. That campaign was so very different to this one, in so many ways. Corbyn was at his peak then, and yes, he did tap into public disgruntlement very effectively. But somewhere along the line that seems to have dissipated. And of course, the Tories scored one of the biggest own goals in electoral history. I just can't see them doing that again. Labour, on the other hand, have scored one of their own with Brexit. Their 2017 manifesto stated they would abide by the result of the 2016 referendum. They haven't, and the millions of Labour leave voters will punish them for it. Just like the LDs got punished for the tuition fees.
    Problem is you call comparisons with 2017 spurious, and perhaps they are, but then you rely on things like 'seems to have dissipated', 'I cannot see them doing that [own goal] again', things which might be true, but seem to based off the feeling that 2017 cannot happen again because it doesn't seem like it should, which is pretty, well, spurious. They didn't score own goals on purpose last time, so while they will try even harder to avoid another this time it doesn't mean they cannot.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    ydoethur said:

    Ave_it said:

    To me, this photo as the air of a campaign that knows it is losing.

    https://twitter.com/Rachael_Swindon/status/1196510004947357701

    Surprised LAB campaigning in Mansfield. CON Maj 20%?
    Given it was a narrow Tory gain last time after decades as a Labour stronghold, if they were NOT campaigning there we would know they really did fear wipeout.

    Where does this 20% come from? It’s 2.1%.
    I may have made it up. It's an Ave it forecast for GE2019.
    Hope you are voting CON in Cannock
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,614
    Alistair said:

    Con Aberdeen candidates aren't particularly good are they?

    Just need Ross Thompson's replacement to turn out to be a admirer of Radiohead and it will be a blackhole of disaster.
    Even CCHQ would pick up that abomination.....
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    edited November 2019
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503

    Perhaps it is the time of year or they are still planned, but in 2017 wasn't Jezza doing big open air public speeches most days up and down the country by now?

    He's doing plenty of speeches, as quoted by Dr Spyn downthread:

    https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/uk/where-have-the-main-party-leaders-visited-so-far-38702425.html

    The weather is not so conducive to open-air rallies, sadly.
    I didn't say he wasn't, I said last time he was doing lots of public open air ones where the advantage is people see a crowd as they are pottering around and go and look what is going on. And he seemed to get some good crowds.

    So far, the bits I have seen are smallish rooms of folk that other than the odd screamy shouty heckler appear to be the party faithful.
    I think he's staying away. Labour know they don't have the zeitgeist like 2017. There would be nothing more embarrassing than a booked arena with a scattering of die-hards whilst Corbyn preaches to empty seats,
  • Alistair said:

    Con Aberdeen candidates aren't particularly good are they?

    Just need Ross Thompson's replacement to turn out to be a admirer of Radiohead and it will be a blackhole of disaster.
    There's a rumour he likes pineapple on his rowies.
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,124

    To me, this photo as the air of a campaign that knows it is losing.

    https://twitter.com/Rachael_Swindon/status/1196510004947357701

    Her next tweet was, would you believe it from a Corbyn outrider, really really anti-Semitic.
  • GIN1138 said:
    Oh FFS...Sky normally have the best election coverage, especially with Thrasher. Now I have to put with King John being a smug bastard.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293

    GIN1138 said:
    Oh FFS...Sky normally have the best election coverage, especially with Thrasher. Now I have to put with King John being a smug bastard.
    Hard to imagine Betty money grabbing like this...
  • Perhaps it is the time of year or they are still planned, but in 2017 wasn't Jezza doing big open air public speeches most days up and down the country by now?

    That was in the days when LabourLive was considered a good idea.
    I'd forgotten JezFest! Maybe they're saving it all for the end, going with a big rally in, say, Sheffield?
    https://twitter.com/ScouseGirlMedia/status/1196550421084545025
    For "rally" read "room".
    'We're ALLLLRIIIIIIGHT' etc etc
  • ArthurArthur Posts: 63
    edited November 2019
    Jason said:

    Aren't we all in danger of over estimating the importance of these debates? I know it's the job of the media and political sites like this one to hype them up, but are they really the be all and end all, as many appear to suggest? Unless either of them seriously screws up, perhaps by insulting a member of the audience, or suggesting a re-introduction of slavery or something, I cannot see them having any marked effect on voting intention. The manifestos will be far more important.

    The effect of "I agree with Nick" in 2010 (15 April):

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f5/UK_General_Election_2010_YouGov_Polls_Graph.png
  • I do think the Tory Party has a huge Islamophobia problem, it just doesn't get reported as much as Labour's anti-Semitism

    The wish is father to the thought.....
    Several minutes later...

    SCon GE candidate suspended after making Islamophobic posts.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    GIN1138 said:
    I always watch BBC because Emily is on!

    Think I posted this on here in 2017. And 2015
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    kle4 said:

    https://twitter.com/LauraPidcockMP/status/1196532928110616577

    Blair/Brown were working on just that.

    But apparently they are just red tories who should f**k off etc etc

    And if the Tories do win a majority I guess that means the public want child poverty to increase I guess.
    Jason said:

    Jason said:

    Aren't we all in danger of over estimating the importance of these debates? I know it's the job of the media and political sites like this one to hype them up, but are they really the be all and end all, as many appear to suggest? Unless either of them seriously screws up, perhaps by insulting a member of the audience, or suggesting a re-introduction of slavery or something, I cannot see them having any marked effect on voting intention. The manifestos will be far more important.

    It will be interesting to know how excited people are for them. When we first had them there was a huge amount of novelty and the nation tuned it. I remember loads of people asking me if I was going to watch them.

    I honestly haven't spoken to anybody this time around who is talking about them. It will be generally interesting to see how many people tune in.
    That's where all of the spurious comparisons with 2017 start unravelling. That campaign was so very different to this one, in so many ways. Corbyn was at his peak then, and yes, he did tap into public disgruntlement very effectively. But somewhere along the line that seems to have dissipated. And of course, the Tories scored one of the biggest own goals in electoral history. I just can't see them doing that again. Labour, on the other hand, have scored one of their own with Brexit. Their 2017 manifesto stated they would abide by the result of the 2016 referendum. They haven't, and the millions of Labour leave voters will punish them for it. Just like the LDs got punished for the tuition fees.
    Problem is you call comparisons with 2017 spurious, and perhaps they are, but then you rely on things like 'seems to have dissipated', 'I cannot see them doing that [own goal] again', things which might be true, but seem to based off the feeling that 2017 cannot happen again because it doesn't seem like it should, which is pretty, well, spurious. They didn't score own goals on purpose last time, so while they will try even harder to avoid another this time it doesn't mean they cannot.
    Well you could say that more or less about anything that's ever happened or ever will happen. It's just a balance of probabilities.
  • This election is very very far from a slam dunk for Boris. The electorate is volatile, frustrated and exhausted. And he could easily fall short of a majority.

    Anyone who doubts that needs their head examined.

    I agree.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,605

    What is the expected outcome in North Down as Sylvia Hermon is not standing - is it a nailed on DUP gain?

    No, the Alliance and the Ulster Unionists have a good chance.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,129
    edited November 2019
    Arthur said:

    Jason said:

    Aren't we all in danger of over estimating the importance of these debates? I know it's the job of the media and political sites like this one to hype them up, but are they really the be all and end all, as many appear to suggest? Unless either of them seriously screws up, perhaps by insulting a member of the audience, or suggesting a re-introduction of slavery or something, I cannot see them having any marked effect on voting intention. The manifestos will be far more important.

    The effect of "I agree with Nick" in 2010 (15 April):

    image
    There was real buzz about the 2010 debates. I remember everybody I spoke to was really engaged with them, the media were trailing them for days in advance. Loads of stories about who was getting prepped by whom, who was standing in to play each of the characters, the look of the set, who will be in the spin room, how it will all work.

    Perhaps they are again, but I am not feeling it. Perhaps a lot of the media coverage has been overshadowed by Airmiles Andy stuff.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    edited November 2019
    I love GE's for the creepy levels of enthusiasm party activists have (and you can tell when it is real). It can be a great thing, I'm sure, but the sheer, unbridled passion for fudgily ideological platforms which they have not even had confirmed to them yet (so be careful not to condemn a plan the leadership is about to say is your own!) is weird.

    And in some sense I think that's one reason I have trouble with politicians and the really intense party members. On here we know we're all a bit weird for being political wonks, but politicians and activists act as though they genuinely believe every member of the public is as angry and passionate as them, about the exact same things as them, without any hint they themselves are weird for being so angry or passionate. Now granted, it'd be a strange and counter productive thing to do to say how weird being a party activist is (not that none have ever said so), I don't actually expect most politicians or party activists to openly reflect how normal people are not super angry at Labour/Tories, but it means I find rallies and fiery rhetoric slightly unsettling.
    Jason said:


    Well you could say that more or less about anything that's ever happened or ever will happen. It's just a balance of probabilities.

    Yes it is, so why on balance are 2017 comparisons spurious other than feeling that things will be different because they must be?
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503

    Arthur said:

    Jason said:

    Aren't we all in danger of over estimating the importance of these debates? I know it's the job of the media and political sites like this one to hype them up, but are they really the be all and end all, as many appear to suggest? Unless either of them seriously screws up, perhaps by insulting a member of the audience, or suggesting a re-introduction of slavery or something, I cannot see them having any marked effect on voting intention. The manifestos will be far more important.

    The effect of "I agree with Nick" in 2010 (15 April):

    image
    There was real buzz about the 2010 debates. I remember everybody I spoke to was really engaged with them, the media were trailing them for days in advance. Loads of stories about who was getting prepped by whom, who was standing in to play each of the characters, the look of the set, who will be in the spin room, how it will all work.

    Perhaps they are again, but I am not feeling it. Perhaps a lot of the media coverage has been overshadowed by Airmiles Andy stuff.
    The novelty has died. I think it’s as simple as that.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,696
    Andy_JS said:

    What is the expected outcome in North Down as Sylvia Hermon is not standing - is it a nailed on DUP gain?

    No, the Alliance and the Ulster Unionists have a good chance.
    Ok thanks
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411

    This election is very very far from a slam dunk for Boris. The electorate is volatile, frustrated and exhausted. And he could easily fall short of a majority.

    Anyone who doubts that needs their head examined.

    I agree.
    So do I. Could still be sub 295!

    SuperJo special friend!
  • Jezza Hunt making a hunt of himself over HK on Newsnight.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    In Euro 2019 CON would have got 0 seats. So could still be LAB overall majority.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    That's nice, it can indeed be a real pain to find a place that will accept a pet.
  • Arthur said:

    Jason said:

    Aren't we all in danger of over estimating the importance of these debates? I know it's the job of the media and political sites like this one to hype them up, but are they really the be all and end all, as many appear to suggest? Unless either of them seriously screws up, perhaps by insulting a member of the audience, or suggesting a re-introduction of slavery or something, I cannot see them having any marked effect on voting intention. The manifestos will be far more important.

    The effect of "I agree with Nick" in 2010 (15 April):

    image
    There was real buzz about the 2010 debates. I remember everybody I spoke to was really engaged with them, the media were trailing them for days in advance. Loads of stories about who was getting prepped by whom, who was standing in to play each of the characters, the look of the set, who will be in the spin room, how it will all work.

    Perhaps they are again, but I am not feeling it. Perhaps a lot of the media coverage has been overshadowed by Airmiles Andy stuff.
    The novelty has died. I think it’s as simple as that.
    In addition to article after article on Andy, it is also the start of I am Celeb. Not something I ever watch, but again it is another distraction for the media.

    I have just been on the Guardian website, and you would be hard to know there is a debate tomorrow. The Mail one small article saying Boris will stick it to Jezza, surrounded by loads of articles on Andy and I'm a Celeb. The Times can't see anything.
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,855
    edited November 2019
    Prof Sir J Curtice (pbuh) on BBC1 Scotland klaxon.

    (edit for full official title)
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    kle4 said:

    That's nice, it can indeed be a real pain to find a place that will accept a pet.
    Would it extend to my pet Hippo?
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    kle4 said:

    That's nice, it can indeed be a real pain to find a place that will accept a pet.
    LAB now pro cat party. 10% CORBYNISTA swing!
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    Ave_it said:

    kle4 said:

    That's nice, it can indeed be a real pain to find a place that will accept a pet.
    LAB now pro cat party. 10% CORBYNISTA swing!
    Dog people take exception. Swing back!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    kle4 said:

    That's nice, it can indeed be a real pain to find a place that will accept a pet.
    Would it extend to my pet Hippo?
    If you can domesticate one of those vicious buggers, sure.
  • Andy_JS said:
    They regularly do this, especially outside of trading hours.
  • Arthur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Endillion said:

    Corbyn has the ability to skewer Johnson on Brexit IMHO, if he can get him on the ropes in terms of what he intends to actually deliver.

    So far it's "get Brexit done" but very few have asked "what the hell does that mean"?

    Er, what? It means signing the deal he's agreed with the EU, leaving on or before 31 Jan, and then agreeing the trade agreement everyone says he can't get, having learnt nothing from being wrong about the deal he wasn't supposed to be able to get.

    You really think clarity on Brexit is a strength for Corbyn?
    Corbyn couldn't care less about Brexit one way or another. He's neutral remember. He wants to talk about class war and socialist revolution. With Free broadband.
    At 30mbps.
    How do people cope with only 30 Mbps?
    It helps to live on your own so no other bastard is stealing your WiFi signal.
    This is the broadband speed I have to share with four others. It is a hard life.


    What on earth can you possibly do to need all that?

    Seriously, I get 48Mbps down and 14 up - I certainly wouldn't pay for more.
    I'm only paying £26.99 a month for that, got a good deal with Virgin.

    I have the kids on PS4, my parents are silver surfers, my father is constantly streaming UHD content on Netflix/Amazon Prime, my mother is regular video calling her friends and family all across the world.

    Me I use it to upload content to the UK's most popular political blog and watch a lot of UHD content on Sky.
    Right - makes more sense when you put it like that.
    And what happens to Virgin when the free owls fibres are being distributed to every voter?
    What eventually happens to most virgins?
    They play World of Warcraft.
    I've never played World of Warcraft!

    EDIT - Shit, TMI!
  • This election is very very far from a slam dunk for Boris. The electorate is volatile, frustrated and exhausted. And he could easily fall short of a majority.

    We can always hope ...
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    That's nice, it can indeed be a real pain to find a place that will accept a pet.
    Would it extend to my pet Hippo?
    If you can domesticate one of those vicious buggers, sure.
    It gets on well with my aardvark and dolphin. It’s been difficult to get housed with them but now that bedsit is all mine.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    edited November 2019

    I do think the Tory Party has a huge Islamophobia problem, it just doesn't get reported as much as Labour's anti-Semitism

    The wish is father to the thought.....
    Several minutes later...

    SCon GE candidate suspended after making Islamophobic posts.
    Source, please?

    The only thing I've seen was on here, and referred to "antisemitism and homophobia".

    Edit: he seems to have made a statement that references David Irving. Which would seem to not indicate Islamophobia.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,129
    edited November 2019
    Even as a PB regular, I don't know this. How many debates are we getting? Boris vs Jezza? A BOT (bunch of tw@ts) one? Any more? Are we doing the awkward one-on-one interview followed by questions from the audience? Please tell me we aren't doing the weird here is the totally normal Imam, who is actually an anti-semite Labour supporter from Bristol via video link type stuff again?
  • Endillion said:

    I do think the Tory Party has a huge Islamophobia problem, it just doesn't get reported as much as Labour's anti-Semitism

    The wish is father to the thought.....
    Several minutes later...

    SCon GE candidate suspended after making Islamophobic posts.
    Source, please?

    The only thing I've seen was on here, and referred to "antisemitism and homophobia".
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-50468770?ns_source=twitter&ns_linkname=scotland&ns_campaign=bbc_scotland_news&ns_mchannel=social
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,614

    Ave_it said:

    kle4 said:

    That's nice, it can indeed be a real pain to find a place that will accept a pet.
    LAB now pro cat party. 10% CORBYNISTA swing!
    Dog people take exception. Swing back!
    RSPB take huge offence at billions of extra dead birds brought in by cats.

    You don't piss off the RSPB.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976

    Endillion said:

    I do think the Tory Party has a huge Islamophobia problem, it just doesn't get reported as much as Labour's anti-Semitism

    The wish is father to the thought.....
    Several minutes later...

    SCon GE candidate suspended after making Islamophobic posts.
    Source, please?

    The only thing I've seen was on here, and referred to "antisemitism and homophobia".
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-50468770?ns_source=twitter&ns_linkname=scotland&ns_campaign=bbc_scotland_news&ns_mchannel=social
    Thanks. So, not Islamophobia, then.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,533
    kle4 said:

    That's nice, it can indeed be a real pain to find a place that will accept a pet.
    I actually wrote that bit of the manifesto. I know Sue Hayman, the Shadow S of S well and made a bunch of suggestions for animal welfare which have made it into the policy: https://labour.org.uk/issues/animal-welfare-manifesto/

    The proposal is to shift the default to "allow if no reasonable reason not to". Obviously if someone wants to keep 8 fierce dogs in a 1-room flat, the landlord can reasonably object that they're likely to disturb the neighbours. But at present many landlords routinely ban all pets - "we even ban goldfish" said one agent proudly - and a lot of standard rental agreements have it as the default. I argued when I was in Parliament that it was an unreasonable constraint on tenants which wouldn't apply the moment that the tenant bought the flat, and I'm glad to see it make it to the manifesto.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503

    Ave_it said:

    kle4 said:

    That's nice, it can indeed be a real pain to find a place that will accept a pet.
    LAB now pro cat party. 10% CORBYNISTA swing!
    Dog people take exception. Swing back!
    RSPB take huge offence at billions of extra dead birds brought in by cats.

    You don't piss off the RSPB.
    Nationalise them. Birds are tools of the capitalist state to suppress the worker. Under Labour birds will work for the benefit of all. Not just a few privileged twitchers.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,696
    Endillion said:

    I do think the Tory Party has a huge Islamophobia problem, it just doesn't get reported as much as Labour's anti-Semitism

    The wish is father to the thought.....
    Several minutes later...

    SCon GE candidate suspended after making Islamophobic posts.
    Source, please?

    The only thing I've seen was on here, and referred to "antisemitism and homophobia".

    Edit: he seems to have made a statement that references David Irving. Which would seem to not indicate Islamophobia.
    Well that's alright then (!)
  • Iowa is turning into a fascinating event for the Dems.

    A Buttigieg win could transform that betting market overnight imho.
This discussion has been closed.