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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why Johnson’s TV debate strategy could be a mistake

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  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,124

    People who've seen my posts will know i'm not going in for straw-clutching - I think there's huge Tory lead. But CorrectHorseBattery on the last thread picked up something potentially very important in the ICM poll, which showed a Tory lead of 6% before adjusting for turnout and 10% after. If you go to

    https://www.icmunlimited.com/our-work/icm-voting-intentions-poll-general-election-2019-3/

    and bring up the spreadsheet, then right-shift to show the extra cross-tabs, you find a column "Labour 2017 and majority

    Does any other pollster give these crossbreaks, and do they also point to very efficient LAB defensive votes?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    Corbyn has the ability to skewer Johnson on Brexit IMHO, if he can get him on the ropes in terms of what he intends to actually deliver.

    So far it's "get Brexit done" but very few have asked "what the hell does that mean"?

    Don't you think Corbyn's position leaves him vulnerable on that subject?
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038
    Does anyone know who these two light-fingered MPs are?

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10357609/mps-caught-stealing-furniture-election/

    I think that we should be told, in the interests of transparency and open government.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    edited November 2019
    RobD said:

    Corbyn has the ability to skewer Johnson on Brexit IMHO, if he can get him on the ropes in terms of what he intends to actually deliver.

    So far it's "get Brexit done" but very few have asked "what the hell does that mean"?

    Don't you think Corbyn's position leaves him vulnerable on that subject?
    I think Labour's position is honestly more clear than Johnson's.

    I know Labour will end up with a soft EEA-style Brexit and it will be up against Remain.

    I have no bloody clue what Johnson's will look like.

    I accept the public don't agree - but that is up to Corbyn to prove otherwise.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976

    Corbyn has the ability to skewer Johnson on Brexit IMHO, if he can get him on the ropes in terms of what he intends to actually deliver.

    So far it's "get Brexit done" but very few have asked "what the hell does that mean"?

    Er, what? It means signing the deal he's agreed with the EU, leaving on or before 31 Jan, and then agreeing the trade agreement everyone says he can't get, having learnt nothing from being wrong about the deal he wasn't supposed to be able to get.

    You really think clarity on Brexit is a strength for Corbyn?
  • Drutt said:

    People who've seen my posts will know i'm not going in for straw-clutching - I think there's huge Tory lead. But CorrectHorseBattery on the last thread picked up something potentially very important in the ICM poll, which showed a Tory lead of 6% before adjusting for turnout and 10% after. If you go to

    https://www.icmunlimited.com/our-work/icm-voting-intentions-poll-general-election-2019-3/

    and bring up the spreadsheet, then right-shift to show the extra cross-tabs, you find a column "Labour 2017 and majority

    Does any other pollster give these crossbreaks, and do they also point to very efficient LAB defensive votes?
    Interestingly that Twitter thread I posted kind of supports this conclusion. Of course it's most likely just a coincidence.

    My feeling is the Tory vote is very strong - but in the wrong seats.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,729

    People who've seen my posts will know i'm not going in for straw-clutching - I think there's huge Tory lead. But CorrectHorseBattery on the last thread picked up something potentially very important in the ICM poll, which showed a Tory lead of 6% before adjusting for turnout and 10% after. If you go to

    https://www.icmunlimited.com/our-work/icm-voting-intentions-poll-general-election-2019-3/

    and bring up the spreadsheet, then right-shift to show the extra cross-tabs, you find a column "Labour 2017 and majority

    Subsamples.. dearie me...
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    Endillion said:

    Corbyn has the ability to skewer Johnson on Brexit IMHO, if he can get him on the ropes in terms of what he intends to actually deliver.

    So far it's "get Brexit done" but very few have asked "what the hell does that mean"?

    Er, what? It means signing the deal he's agreed with the EU, leaving on or before 31 Jan, and then agreeing the trade agreement everyone says he can't get, having learnt nothing from being wrong about the deal he wasn't supposed to be able to get.

    You really think clarity on Brexit is a strength for Corbyn?
    Corbyn couldn't care less about Brexit one way or another. He's neutral remember. He wants to talk about class war and socialist revolution. With Free broadband.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,722
    timmo said:

    The parachuted in candidate will still win by a country mile
    Don't under estimate the racism of the BME vote, as in TSE link above, but I agree, Webbe is a cert.

    Leicester East is the most BME of the three Leicester seats, and Brexitism is not strong there. Leicester is also a very young city, though this is the least student part. Only 10% of folk in Leicester are over 65.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    edited November 2019
    Endillion said:

    Corbyn has the ability to skewer Johnson on Brexit IMHO, if he can get him on the ropes in terms of what he intends to actually deliver.

    So far it's "get Brexit done" but very few have asked "what the hell does that mean"?

    Er, what? It means signing the deal he's agreed with the EU, leaving on or before 31 Jan, and then agreeing the trade agreement everyone says he can't get, having learnt nothing from being wrong about the deal he wasn't supposed to be able to get.

    You really think clarity on Brexit is a strength for Corbyn?
    What will Johnson's trade deal look like? Will be close to the EU or not? Regulatory alignment? No regulatory alignment?

    Border checks? No border checks?

    Customs forms? No customs forms?

    I don't think it's a strength for Corbyn at all - but I don't think it's a strength for Johnson either.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,386
    All of Cheshire?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424

    Endillion said:

    Corbyn has the ability to skewer Johnson on Brexit IMHO, if he can get him on the ropes in terms of what he intends to actually deliver.

    So far it's "get Brexit done" but very few have asked "what the hell does that mean"?

    Er, what? It means signing the deal he's agreed with the EU, leaving on or before 31 Jan, and then agreeing the trade agreement everyone says he can't get, having learnt nothing from being wrong about the deal he wasn't supposed to be able to get.

    You really think clarity on Brexit is a strength for Corbyn?
    Corbyn couldn't care less about Brexit one way or another. He's neutral remember. He wants to talk about class war and socialist revolution. With Free broadband.
    At 30mbps.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,494

    Drutt said:

    People who've seen my posts will know i'm not going in for straw-clutching - I think there's huge Tory lead. But CorrectHorseBattery on the last thread picked up something potentially very important in the ICM poll, which showed a Tory lead of 6% before adjusting for turnout and 10% after. If you go to

    https://www.icmunlimited.com/our-work/icm-voting-intentions-poll-general-election-2019-3/

    and bring up the spreadsheet, then right-shift to show the extra cross-tabs, you find a column "Labour 2017 and majority

    Does any other pollster give these crossbreaks, and do they also point to very efficient LAB defensive votes?
    Interestingly that Twitter thread I posted kind of supports this conclusion. Of course it's most likely just a coincidence.

    My feeling is the Tory vote is very strong - but in the wrong seats.
    The thing is, with a 10%+ lead the Tories don't need to be very efficient to win a majority, it'll just happen.

    If you take a seat predictor, electoral calculus say, and put in the 2010 percentages in you won't get the 2010 result. There's a structural element to swing and this always goes for the party which is winning. especially if they are winning by 10%+
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    dr_spyn said:

    Is anyone else having issues trying to return to the site today?

    No. On the contrary, I find leaving it to be the problem.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,679
    edited November 2019
    ydoethur said:

    Endillion said:

    Corbyn has the ability to skewer Johnson on Brexit IMHO, if he can get him on the ropes in terms of what he intends to actually deliver.

    So far it's "get Brexit done" but very few have asked "what the hell does that mean"?

    Er, what? It means signing the deal he's agreed with the EU, leaving on or before 31 Jan, and then agreeing the trade agreement everyone says he can't get, having learnt nothing from being wrong about the deal he wasn't supposed to be able to get.

    You really think clarity on Brexit is a strength for Corbyn?
    Corbyn couldn't care less about Brexit one way or another. He's neutral remember. He wants to talk about class war and socialist revolution. With Free broadband.
    At 30mbps.
    How do people cope with only 30 Mbps?
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    ydoethur said:

    Endillion said:

    Corbyn has the ability to skewer Johnson on Brexit IMHO, if he can get him on the ropes in terms of what he intends to actually deliver.

    So far it's "get Brexit done" but very few have asked "what the hell does that mean"?

    Er, what? It means signing the deal he's agreed with the EU, leaving on or before 31 Jan, and then agreeing the trade agreement everyone says he can't get, having learnt nothing from being wrong about the deal he wasn't supposed to be able to get.

    You really think clarity on Brexit is a strength for Corbyn?
    Corbyn couldn't care less about Brexit one way or another. He's neutral remember. He wants to talk about class war and socialist revolution. With Free broadband.
    At 30mbps.
    Only for party members :wink:
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,722

    Drutt said:

    People who've seen my posts will know i'm not going in for straw-clutching - I think there's huge Tory lead. But CorrectHorseBattery on the last thread picked up something potentially very important in the ICM poll, which showed a Tory lead of 6% before adjusting for turnout and 10% after. If you go to

    https://www.icmunlimited.com/our-work/icm-voting-intentions-poll-general-election-2019-3/

    and bring up the spreadsheet, then right-shift to show the extra cross-tabs, you find a column "Labour 2017 and majority

    Does any other pollster give these crossbreaks, and do they also point to very efficient LAB defensive votes?
    Interestingly that Twitter thread I posted kind of supports this conclusion. Of course it's most likely just a coincidence.

    My feeling is the Tory vote is very strong - but in the wrong seats.
    The key is the age profile of the seats, imo. That explains the differential Tory vote between target and safe seats.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    RobD said:

    Corbyn has the ability to skewer Johnson on Brexit IMHO, if he can get him on the ropes in terms of what he intends to actually deliver.

    So far it's "get Brexit done" but very few have asked "what the hell does that mean"?

    Don't you think Corbyn's position leaves him vulnerable on that subject?
    I think Labour's position is honestly more clear than Johnson's.

    I know Labour will end up with a soft EEA-style Brexit and it will be up against Remain.

    I have no bloody clue what Johnson's will look like.

    I accept the public don't agree - but that is up to Corbyn to prove otherwise.
    Labour's position is clearer than Johnson's? You're having a laugh, aren't you?
  • spudgfsh said:

    Drutt said:

    People who've seen my posts will know i'm not going in for straw-clutching - I think there's huge Tory lead. But CorrectHorseBattery on the last thread picked up something potentially very important in the ICM poll, which showed a Tory lead of 6% before adjusting for turnout and 10% after. If you go to

    https://www.icmunlimited.com/our-work/icm-voting-intentions-poll-general-election-2019-3/

    and bring up the spreadsheet, then right-shift to show the extra cross-tabs, you find a column "Labour 2017 and majority

    Does any other pollster give these crossbreaks, and do they also point to very efficient LAB defensive votes?
    Interestingly that Twitter thread I posted kind of supports this conclusion. Of course it's most likely just a coincidence.

    My feeling is the Tory vote is very strong - but in the wrong seats.
    The thing is, with a 10%+ lead the Tories don't need to be very efficient to win a majority, it'll just happen.

    If you take a seat predictor, electoral calculus say, and put in the 2010 percentages in you won't get the 2010 result. There's a structural element to swing and this always goes for the party which is winning. especially if they are winning by 10%+
    If that lead drops though, then they're in trouble.

    I would be surprised if this is the lead in two weeks time.

    I think if in a week's time there's no change, then Labour are in real trouble.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503

    ydoethur said:

    Endillion said:

    Corbyn has the ability to skewer Johnson on Brexit IMHO, if he can get him on the ropes in terms of what he intends to actually deliver.

    So far it's "get Brexit done" but very few have asked "what the hell does that mean"?

    Er, what? It means signing the deal he's agreed with the EU, leaving on or before 31 Jan, and then agreeing the trade agreement everyone says he can't get, having learnt nothing from being wrong about the deal he wasn't supposed to be able to get.

    You really think clarity on Brexit is a strength for Corbyn?
    Corbyn couldn't care less about Brexit one way or another. He's neutral remember. He wants to talk about class war and socialist revolution. With Free broadband.
    At 30mbps.
    How do people cope with only 30 Mbps?
    More than 30mbps is bourgeois.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424

    ydoethur said:

    Endillion said:

    Corbyn has the ability to skewer Johnson on Brexit IMHO, if he can get him on the ropes in terms of what he intends to actually deliver.

    So far it's "get Brexit done" but very few have asked "what the hell does that mean"?

    Er, what? It means signing the deal he's agreed with the EU, leaving on or before 31 Jan, and then agreeing the trade agreement everyone says he can't get, having learnt nothing from being wrong about the deal he wasn't supposed to be able to get.

    You really think clarity on Brexit is a strength for Corbyn?
    Corbyn couldn't care less about Brexit one way or another. He's neutral remember. He wants to talk about class war and socialist revolution. With Free broadband.
    At 30mbps.
    How do people cope with only 30 Mbps?
    It helps to live on your own so no other bastard is stealing your WiFi signal.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,722

    Endillion said:

    Corbyn has the ability to skewer Johnson on Brexit IMHO, if he can get him on the ropes in terms of what he intends to actually deliver.

    So far it's "get Brexit done" but very few have asked "what the hell does that mean"?

    Er, what? It means signing the deal he's agreed with the EU, leaving on or before 31 Jan, and then agreeing the trade agreement everyone says he can't get, having learnt nothing from being wrong about the deal he wasn't supposed to be able to get.

    You really think clarity on Brexit is a strength for Corbyn?
    Corbyn couldn't care less about Brexit one way or another. He's neutral remember. He wants to talk about class war and socialist revolution. With Free broadband.
    I think the first 30 min are on Brexit, sufficient for an uncomfortable level of detail for both concerned.
  • RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Corbyn has the ability to skewer Johnson on Brexit IMHO, if he can get him on the ropes in terms of what he intends to actually deliver.

    So far it's "get Brexit done" but very few have asked "what the hell does that mean"?

    Don't you think Corbyn's position leaves him vulnerable on that subject?
    I think Labour's position is honestly more clear than Johnson's.

    I know Labour will end up with a soft EEA-style Brexit and it will be up against Remain.

    I have no bloody clue what Johnson's will look like.

    I accept the public don't agree - but that is up to Corbyn to prove otherwise.
    Labour's position is clearer than Johnson's? You're having a laugh, aren't you?
    I think Labour's position will inevitably lead to an EEA-style Brexit in which case we'll have what we have now pretty much without any say, or Remain.

    I have no idea what Johnson's Brexit looks like, none whatsoever.

    I accept I'm a minority viewpoint and the public completely disagree with me - but that is my view of things.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    kle4 said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Is anyone else having issues trying to return to the site today?

    No. On the contrary, I find leaving it to be the problem.
    You can leave PB? :o
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    edited November 2019
    BluerBlue said:

    BluerBlue said:

    Two reasons:

    1. Showing cowardice makes you look weak, and is the fastest way to lose a poll lead if you have one - it was certainly disastrous for May. No guts, no glory.

    2. Avoiding the debate allows a section of the electorate to fantasise that Corbyn might be OK as PM because no one from the Tories has ever challenged him head to head. In the US, a Presidential election without debates is inconceivable because you need to see how the two contenders for the top job compare side by side. It's about time we got that clarity here.

    These are both important points, but the second especially so. One theory I've read, which I think has some merit, is that Johnson has agreed to the debates to remind the soft Remain segment of the Tory vote how scary the Far Left are, so that they won't be tempted to vote Lib Dem and risk letting Corbyn in through the middle.

    I am just as worried as the rest of the anti-Labour pessimists that Johnson will stuff this up, but there is some reason to be hopeful. His task in this erry-pick whatever comes out of a debate that best confirms their own opinions.

    It is entirely possible that the debates will make little or no difference, and that your average voter will show more interest in I'm A Celebrity and the latest Prince Andrew revelations than they will in two politicians fighting at the end of years and years of politicians fighting.
    Well said. I'm feeling oddly chipper about tomorrow, even though we've established that you are my pessimistic political twin. Remember that Trump beat Clinton in the debates despite Trump being stupider than Johnson and Clinton more intelligent than Corbyn. And despite the "pussygate" tapes coming out immediately before one of the debates!
    First debates do not favour incumbents as they give the challenger the chance to look fresh and on equal terms with the incumbent, Kerry and Romney won their first debates with Bush and Obama. Hillary also beat Trump in the first 2016 debate and Clegg beat Brown and Cameron in 2010. However none of them made much difference to the final result
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,494

    spudgfsh said:

    Drutt said:

    People who've seen my posts will know i'm not going in for straw-clutching - I think there's huge Tory lead. But CorrectHorseBattery on the last thread picked up something potentially very important in the ICM poll, which showed a Tory lead of 6% before adjusting for turnout and 10% after. If you go to

    https://www.icmunlimited.com/our-work/icm-voting-intentions-poll-general-election-2019-3/

    and bring up the spreadsheet, then right-shift to show the extra cross-tabs, you find a column "Labour 2017 and majority

    Does any other pollster give these crossbreaks, and do they also point to very efficient LAB defensive votes?
    Interestingly that Twitter thread I posted kind of supports this conclusion. Of course it's most likely just a coincidence.

    My feeling is the Tory vote is very strong - but in the wrong seats.
    The thing is, with a 10%+ lead the Tories don't need to be very efficient to win a majority, it'll just happen.

    If you take a seat predictor, electoral calculus say, and put in the 2010 percentages in you won't get the 2010 result. There's a structural element to swing and this always goes for the party which is winning. especially if they are winning by 10%+
    If that lead drops though, then they're in trouble.

    I would be surprised if this is the lead in two weeks time.

    I think if in a week's time there's no change, then Labour are in real trouble.
    People keep making the mistake of looking at the current GE through the lens of the last one. it doesn't work like that. I do suspect that there will be an uptick in labour support because of labour voters who are currently saying don't know. JC is much better known now, there are no adoring masses. he's put too many of them off. even earlier in the year he had to bus them in
  • ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Endillion said:

    Corbyn has the ability to skewer Johnson on Brexit IMHO, if he can get him on the ropes in terms of what he intends to actually deliver.

    So far it's "get Brexit done" but very few have asked "what the hell does that mean"?

    Er, what? It means signing the deal he's agreed with the EU, leaving on or before 31 Jan, and then agreeing the trade agreement everyone says he can't get, having learnt nothing from being wrong about the deal he wasn't supposed to be able to get.

    You really think clarity on Brexit is a strength for Corbyn?
    Corbyn couldn't care less about Brexit one way or another. He's neutral remember. He wants to talk about class war and socialist revolution. With Free broadband.
    At 30mbps.
    How do people cope with only 30 Mbps?
    It helps to live on your own so no other bastard is stealing your WiFi signal.
    This is the broadband speed I have to share with four others. It is a hard life.


  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,729

    All of Cheshire?
    Soulds like an effort to stem the tide to me.. but i am.not canvassing for anyone...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,679
    edited November 2019
    Honestly I'd vote for Andrea Jenkyns/Mark Francois if it meant my broadband speed wasn't reduced.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411

    People who've seen my posts will know i'm not going in for straw-clutching - I think there's huge Tory lead. But CorrectHorseBattery on the last thread picked up something potentially very important in the ICM poll, which showed a Tory lead of 6% before adjusting for turnout and 10% after. If you go to

    https://www.icmunlimited.com/our-work/icm-voting-intentions-poll-general-election-2019-3/

    and bring up the spreadsheet, then right-shift to show the extra cross-tabs, you find a column "Labour 2017 and majority

    Even though Nick and I are from opposite ends of the political spectrum I respect him and his posts.

    The sub sample should be ignored but I think the swing is less in the LAB marginals. But I think CON losses to LDs and SNP will be minimal possibly net gains and we can gain some LAB seats outside the 10% range.

    Don't forget we are 3/1 in Ogmore!
  • HYUFD said:

    BluerBlue said:

    BluerBlue said:

    Two reasons:

    1. Showing cowardice makes you look weak, and is the fastest way to lose a poll lead if you have one - it was certainly disastrous for May. No guts, no glory.

    2. Avoiding the debate allows a section of the electorate to fantasise that Corbyn might be OK as PM because no one from the Tories has ever challenged him head to head. In the US, a Presidential election without debates is inconceivable because you need to see how the two contenders for the top job compare side by side. It's about time we got that clarity here.

    These are both important points, but the second especially so. One theory I've read, which I think has some merit, is that Johnson has agreed to the debates to remind the soft Remain segment of the Tory vote how scary the Far Left are, so that they won't be tempted to vote Lib Dem and risk letting Corbyn in through the middle.

    I am just as worried as the rest of the anti-Labour pessimists that Johnson will stuff this up, but there is some reason to be hopeful. His task in this erry-pick whatever comes out of a debate that best confirms their own opinions.

    It is entirely possible that the debates will make little or no difference, and that your average voter will show more interest in I'm A Celebrity and the latest Prince Andrew revelations than they will in two politicians fighting at the end of years and years of politicians fighting.
    Well said. I'm feeling oddly chipper about tomorrow, even though we've established that you are my pessimistic political twin. Remember that Trump beat Clinton in the debates despite Trump being stupider than Johnson and Clinton more intelligent than Corbyn. And despite the "pussygate" tapes coming out immediately before one of the debates!
    First debates do not favour incumbents as they give the challenger to look fresh and on equal terms with the incumbent, Kerry and Romney won their first debates with Bush and Obama. Hillary also beat Trump in the first 2016 debate and Clegg beat Brown and Cameron in 2010. However none of them made much difference to the final result
    Arguably 2010 result made a Hung Parliament more likely - although that's more of a gut feeling than anything else.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Is anyone else having issues trying to return to the site today?

    No. On the contrary, I find leaving it to be the problem.
    You can leave PB? :o

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Corbyn has the ability to skewer Johnson on Brexit IMHO, if he can get him on the ropes in terms of what he intends to actually deliver.

    So far it's "get Brexit done" but very few have asked "what the hell does that mean"?

    Don't you think Corbyn's position leaves him vulnerable on that subject?
    I think Labour's position is honestly more clear than Johnson's.

    I know Labour will end up with a soft EEA-style Brexit and it will be up against Remain.

    I have no bloody clue what Johnson's will look like.

    I accept the public don't agree - but that is up to Corbyn to prove otherwise.
    Labour's position is clearer than Johnson's? You're having a laugh, aren't you?
    I think Labour's position will inevitably lead to an EEA-style Brexit in which case we'll have what we have now pretty much without any say, or Remain.

    I have no idea what Johnson's Brexit looks like, none whatsoever.

    I accept I'm a minority viewpoint and the public completely disagree with me - but that is my view of things.
    I think you are a ProjectingHorseBattery, and that you want an EEA-style deal so badly you have convinced yourself that Corbyn and the Labour Party do too.
  • spudgfsh said:


    People keep making the mistake of looking at the current GE through the lens of the last one. it doesn't work like that. I do suspect that there will be an uptick in labour support because of labour voters who are currently saying don't know. JC is much better known now, there are no adoring masses. he's put too many of them off. even earlier in the year he had to bus them in

    I think it's far, far too early to say how the election will turn out at this stage.

    I for one, am not going to predict anything, because I keep getting egg on my face :)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Endillion said:

    Corbyn has the ability to skewer Johnson on Brexit IMHO, if he can get him on the ropes in terms of what he intends to actually deliver.

    So far it's "get Brexit done" but very few have asked "what the hell does that mean"?

    Er, what? It means signing the deal he's agreed with the EU, leaving on or before 31 Jan, and then agreeing the trade agreement everyone says he can't get, having learnt nothing from being wrong about the deal he wasn't supposed to be able to get.

    You really think clarity on Brexit is a strength for Corbyn?
    Corbyn couldn't care less about Brexit one way or another. He's neutral remember. He wants to talk about class war and socialist revolution. With Free broadband.
    At 30mbps.
    How do people cope with only 30 Mbps?
    It helps to live on your own so no other bastard is stealing your WiFi signal.
    This is the broadband speed I have to share with four others. It is a hard life.


    Mine are 26 and 4.

    But tbh it’s usually more than sufficient.
  • Endillion said:

    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Is anyone else having issues trying to return to the site today?

    No. On the contrary, I find leaving it to be the problem.
    You can leave PB? :o

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Corbyn has the ability to skewer Johnson on Brexit IMHO, if he can get him on the ropes in terms of what he intends to actually deliver.

    So far it's "get Brexit done" but very few have asked "what the hell does that mean"?

    Don't you think Corbyn's position leaves him vulnerable on that subject?
    I think Labour's position is honestly more clear than Johnson's.

    I know Labour will end up with a soft EEA-style Brexit and it will be up against Remain.

    I have no bloody clue what Johnson's will look like.

    I accept the public don't agree - but that is up to Corbyn to prove otherwise.
    Labour's position is clearer than Johnson's? You're having a laugh, aren't you?
    I think Labour's position will inevitably lead to an EEA-style Brexit in which case we'll have what we have now pretty much without any say, or Remain.

    I have no idea what Johnson's Brexit looks like, none whatsoever.

    I accept I'm a minority viewpoint and the public completely disagree with me - but that is my view of things.
    I think you are a ProjectingHorseBattery, and that you want an EEA-style deal so badly you have convinced yourself that Corbyn and the Labour Party do too.
    Thanks for your opinion.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Corbyn has the ability to skewer Johnson on Brexit IMHO, if he can get him on the ropes in terms of what he intends to actually deliver.

    So far it's "get Brexit done" but very few have asked "what the hell does that mean"?

    Don't you think Corbyn's position leaves him vulnerable on that subject?
    I think Labour's position is honestly more clear than Johnson's.

    I know Labour will end up with a soft EEA-style Brexit and it will be up against Remain.

    I have no bloody clue what Johnson's will look like.

    I accept the public don't agree - but that is up to Corbyn to prove otherwise.
    Labour's position is clearer than Johnson's? You're having a laugh, aren't you?
    Give that Corbyn's position involves an uncertainly successful negotiation and then a public vote and then possibly into a Brexit transition and then on to many of the same issues as Boris will face (though not all, given different deals), it is demonstrably not as clear, though it's preferable for those of us who would want a chance to vote for Remain.

    If Boris is smart he will acknowledge there will be much to talk to the EU about the nature of our future relationship, but quickly shift to point out that he can truthfully say that the question of us leaving will be settled by the end of January, whereas under Corbyn's plan we will face many months of limbo while negotiations, then a referendum is prepared. Now, Corbyn's plan is to hope Labour leavers can accept that wait, and Labour remainers and other remainers won't give a shit because it gives them a shot at what they want, but for all it is true Boris is only promising to get 'it' done in a short term sense, he is at least able to deliver on that (while implying it will be much more long lasting), and he needs to hammer home that Corbyn is not offering to get it done in the short or even medium term.

    The LDs should hit home the same point - even if they cannot revoke, as they definitely won't be able to, they can say that the more LD MPs there are the less fannying about they will accept indulging Corbyn's phony renegotiation, and simply push for a referendum as soon as humanly possible.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Also ultimately across the country the UNS normally works. If we win by 10% we have a majority.

    But watch out for the 10% CORBYNISTA swing!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149

    HYUFD said:

    BluerBlue said:

    BluerBlue said:

    Two reasons:

    1. Showing cowardice makes you look weak, and is the fastest way to lose a poll lead if you have one - it was certainly disastrous for May. No guts, no glory.

    2. Avoiding the debate allows a section of the electorate to fantasise that Corbyn might be OK as PM because no one from the Tories has ever challenged him head to head. In the US, a Presidential election without debates is inconceivable because you need to see how the two contenders for the top job compare side by side. It's about time we got that clarity here.

    These are both important points, but the second especially so. One theory I've read, which I think has some merit, is that Johnson has agreed to the debates to remind the soft Remain segment of the Tory vote how scary the Far Left are, so that they won't be tempted to vote Lib Dem and risk letting Corbyn in through the middle.

    I am just as worried as the rest of the anti-Labour pessimists that Johnson will stuff this up, but there is some reason to be hopeful. His task in this erry-pick whatever comes out of a debate that best confirms their own opinions.

    It is entirely possible that the debates will make little or no difference, and that your average voter will show more interest in I'm A Celebrity and the latest Prince Andrew revelations than they will in two politicians fighting at the end of years and years of politicians fighting.
    Well said. I'm feeling oddly chipper about tomorrow, even though we've established that you are my pessimistic political twin. Remember that Trump beat Clinton in the debates despite Trump being stupider than Johnson and Clinton more intelligent than Corbyn. And despite the "pussygate" tapes coming out immediately before one of the debates!
    First debates do not favour incumbents as they give the challenger to look fresh and on equal terms with the incumbent, Kerry and Romney won their first debates with Bush and Obama. Hillary also beat Trump in the first 2016 debate and Clegg beat Brown and Cameron in 2010. However none of them made much difference to the final result
    Arguably 2010 result made a Hung Parliament more likely - although that's more of a gut feeling than anything else.
    Possibly but the LDs even led the polls after that first debate but fell back by polling day
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    spudgfsh said:

    spudgfsh said:

    Drutt said:

    People who've seen my posts will know i'm not going in for straw-clutching - I think there's huge Tory lead. But CorrectHorseBattery on the last thread picked up something potentially very important in the ICM poll, which showed a Tory lead of 6% before adjusting for turnout and 10% after. If you go to

    https://www.icmunlimited.com/our-work/icm-voting-intentions-poll-general-election-2019-3/

    and bring up the spreadsheet, then right-shift to show the extra cross-tabs, you find a column "Labour 2017 and majority

    Does any other pollster give these crossbreaks, and do they also point to very efficient LAB defensive votes?
    Interestingly that Twitter thread I posted kind of supports this conclusion. Of course it's most likely just a coincidence.

    My feeling is the Tory vote is very strong - but in the wrong seats.
    The thing is, with a 10%+ lead the Tories don't need to be very efficient to win a majority, it'll just happen.

    If you take a seat predictor, electoral calculus say, and put in the 2010 percentages in you won't get the 2010 result. There's a structural element to swing and this always goes for the party which is winning. especially if they are winning by 10%+
    If that lead drops though, then they're in trouble.

    I would be surprised if this is the lead in two weeks time.

    I think if in a week's time there's no change, then Labour are in real trouble.
    People keep making the mistake of looking at the current GE through the lens of the last one. it doesn't work like that.
    We don't know it will be a mistake until it is over and done. At present Labour are tracking along much like before.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,696

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Endillion said:

    Corbyn has the ability to skewer Johnson on Brexit IMHO, if he can get him on the ropes in terms of what he intends to actually deliver.

    So far it's "get Brexit done" but very few have asked "what the hell does that mean"?

    Er, what? It means signing the deal he's agreed with the EU, leaving on or before 31 Jan, and then agreeing the trade agreement everyone says he can't get, having learnt nothing from being wrong about the deal he wasn't supposed to be able to get.

    You really think clarity on Brexit is a strength for Corbyn?
    Corbyn couldn't care less about Brexit one way or another. He's neutral remember. He wants to talk about class war and socialist revolution. With Free broadband.
    At 30mbps.
    How do people cope with only 30 Mbps?
    It helps to live on your own so no other bastard is stealing your WiFi signal.
    This is the broadband speed I have to share with four others. It is a hard life.


    What on earth can you possibly do to need all that?

    Seriously, I get 48Mbps down and 14 up - I certainly wouldn't pay for more.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Is anyone else having issues trying to return to the site today?

    No. On the contrary, I find leaving it to be the problem.
    You can leave PB? :o
    Only by sacrificing your first born. Which is a bugger for the childless.
  • ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Endillion said:

    Corbyn has the ability to skewer Johnson on Brexit IMHO, if he can get him on the ropes in terms of what he intends to actually deliver.

    So far it's "get Brexit done" but very few have asked "what the hell does that mean"?

    Er, what? It means signing the deal he's agreed with the EU, leaving on or before 31 Jan, and then agreeing the trade agreement everyone says he can't get, having learnt nothing from being wrong about the deal he wasn't supposed to be able to get.

    You really think clarity on Brexit is a strength for Corbyn?
    Corbyn couldn't care less about Brexit one way or another. He's neutral remember. He wants to talk about class war and socialist revolution. With Free broadband.
    At 30mbps.
    How do people cope with only 30 Mbps?
    It helps to live on your own so no other bastard is stealing your WiFi signal.
    This is the broadband speed I have to share with four others. It is a hard life.


    Mine are 26 and 4.

    But tbh it’s usually more than sufficient.
    I went from having 1mbps to 70 mbps overnight a few years ago.

    If I ever move house again in the future, the first thing I'll check is the broadband/mobile coverage.
  • I do have to say this place is a lot more balanced than other such sites. I do like having my views challenged.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,614

    Honestly I'd vote for Andrea Jenkyns/Mark Francois if it meant my broadband speed wasn't reduced.

    The speed drops when you stop eating that pineapple pizza......
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,679
    edited November 2019

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Endillion said:

    Corbyn has the ability to skewer Johnson on Brexit IMHO, if he can get him on the ropes in terms of what he intends to actually deliver.

    So far it's "get Brexit done" but very few have asked "what the hell does that mean"?

    Er, what? It means signing the deal he's agreed with the EU, leaving on or before 31 Jan, and then agreeing the trade agreement everyone says he can't get, having learnt nothing from being wrong about the deal he wasn't supposed to be able to get.

    You really think clarity on Brexit is a strength for Corbyn?
    Corbyn couldn't care less about Brexit one way or another. He's neutral remember. He wants to talk about class war and socialist revolution. With Free broadband.
    At 30mbps.
    How do people cope with only 30 Mbps?
    It helps to live on your own so no other bastard is stealing your WiFi signal.
    This is the broadband speed I have to share with four others. It is a hard life.


    What on earth can you possibly do to need all that?

    Seriously, I get 48Mbps down and 14 up - I certainly wouldn't pay for more.
    I'm only paying £26.99 a month for that, got a good deal with Virgin.

    I have the kids on PS4, my parents are silver surfers, my father is constantly streaming UHD content on Netflix/Amazon Prime, my mother is regular video calling her friends and family all across the world.

    Me I use it to upload content to the UK's most popular political blog and watch a lot of UHD content on YouPorn.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    I do have to say this place is a lot more balanced than other such sites. I do like having my views challenged.

    Not me - Brexit has been a right arse as its forced me to get off the fence and have opinions others might disagree with, it's hell.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,696

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Endillion said:

    Corbyn has the ability to skewer Johnson on Brexit IMHO, if he can get him on the ropes in terms of what he intends to actually deliver.

    So far it's "get Brexit done" but very few have asked "what the hell does that mean"?

    Er, what? It means signing the deal he's agreed with the EU, leaving on or before 31 Jan, and then agreeing the trade agreement everyone says he can't get, having learnt nothing from being wrong about the deal he wasn't supposed to be able to get.

    You really think clarity on Brexit is a strength for Corbyn?
    Corbyn couldn't care less about Brexit one way or another. He's neutral remember. He wants to talk about class war and socialist revolution. With Free broadband.
    At 30mbps.
    How do people cope with only 30 Mbps?
    It helps to live on your own so no other bastard is stealing your WiFi signal.
    This is the broadband speed I have to share with four others. It is a hard life.


    Mine are 26 and 4.

    But tbh it’s usually more than sufficient.
    I went from having 1mbps to 70 mbps overnight a few years ago.

    If I ever move house again in the future, the first thing I'll check is the broadband/mobile coverage.
    Well 1Mbps is certainly too slow to live stream.

    Btw your ping time is rubbish: 17ms - mine's only 16.5ms! :lol:
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    edited November 2019
    BluerBlue said:

    Corbyn is going to have to spend half the debate defending his godawful, fence-sitting, cowardly balls-up of a Brexit plan. That could sink him right there.

    The only person who really stands to lose much in a head-to-head debate is the candidate that is already far out in the lead.

    Re Brexit it really depends how much Corbyn hammers the point that he is offering a referendum, which the LDs and SNP would also support.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    edited November 2019

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Endillion said:

    Corbyn has the ability to skewer Johnson on Brexit IMHO, if he can get him on the ropes in terms of what he intends to actually deliver.

    So far it's "get Brexit done" but very few have asked "what the hell does that mean"?

    Er, what? It means signing the deal he's agreed with the EU, leaving on or before 31 Jan, and then agreeing the trade agreement everyone says he can't get, having learnt nothing from being wrong about the deal he wasn't supposed to be able to get.

    You really think clarity on Brexit is a strength for Corbyn?
    Corbyn couldn't care less about Brexit one way or another. He's neutral remember. He wants to talk about class war and socialist revolution. With Free broadband.
    At 30mbps.
    How do people cope with only 30 Mbps?
    It helps to live on your own so no other bastard is stealing your WiFi signal.
    This is the broadband speed I have to share with four others. It is a hard life.


    Mine are 26 and 4.

    But tbh it’s usually more than sufficient.
    I went from having 1mbps to 70 mbps overnight a few years ago.

    If I ever move house again in the future, the first thing I'll check is the broadband/mobile coverage.
    This sounds weird but the days of a 56k dial-up modem were more satisfying. You had to work for your internet - and rack-up a nice bill while you were doing it.
    And keeping your parents off the phone.....

    The feeling of "will it connect" was a daily excitement.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,386

    Disgraceful.

    Boris Johnson is as bad as Corbyn on antisemitism when it comes to dealing with Islamophobia.

    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1196482486605402112

    Agreed, but Johnson is given a free pass on every lie, every doctored video, every casually cynical photo opportunity, every financial scandal, every sexual impropriety, every false statistic, every carefully constructed racial dog-whistle. The BBC claims it is here to report Johnson's claims, not to question their accuracy, even when they are known to be utter fabrications. Interesting analysis from Oborne in The Guardian.

    It is absolutely true Johnson's main opponent is quite repulsive. If one is called out as the hideous charlatan he clearly is, so should the other equally hideous charlatan.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,696

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Endillion said:

    Corbyn has the ability to skewer Johnson on Brexit IMHO, if he can get him on the ropes in terms of what he intends to actually deliver.

    So far it's "get Brexit done" but very few have asked "what the hell does that mean"?

    Er, what? It means signing the deal he's agreed with the EU, leaving on or before 31 Jan, and then agreeing the trade agreement everyone says he can't get, having learnt nothing from being wrong about the deal he wasn't supposed to be able to get.

    You really think clarity on Brexit is a strength for Corbyn?
    Corbyn couldn't care less about Brexit one way or another. He's neutral remember. He wants to talk about class war and socialist revolution. With Free broadband.
    At 30mbps.
    How do people cope with only 30 Mbps?
    It helps to live on your own so no other bastard is stealing your WiFi signal.
    This is the broadband speed I have to share with four others. It is a hard life.


    What on earth can you possibly do to need all that?

    Seriously, I get 48Mbps down and 14 up - I certainly wouldn't pay for more.
    I'm only paying £26.99 a month for that, got a good deal with Virgin.

    I have the kids on PS4, my parents are silver surfers, my father is constantly streaming UHD content on Netflix/Amazon Prime, my mother is regular video calling her friends and family all across the world.

    Me I use it to upload content to the UK's most popular political blog and watch a lot of UHD content on Sky.
    Right - makes more sense when you put it like that.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Endillion said:

    Corbyn has the ability to skewer Johnson on Brexit IMHO, if he can get him on the ropes in terms of what he intends to actually deliver.

    So far it's "get Brexit done" but very few have asked "what the hell does that mean"?

    Er, what? It means signing the deal he's agreed with the EU, leaving on or before 31 Jan, and then agreeing the trade agreement everyone says he can't get, having learnt nothing from being wrong about the deal he wasn't supposed to be able to get.

    You really think clarity on Brexit is a strength for Corbyn?
    Corbyn couldn't care less about Brexit one way or another. He's neutral remember. He wants to talk about class war and socialist revolution. With Free broadband.
    At 30mbps.
    How do people cope with only 30 Mbps?
    It helps to live on your own so no other bastard is stealing your WiFi signal.
    This is the broadband speed I have to share with four others. It is a hard life.


    Mine are 26 and 4.

    But tbh it’s usually more than sufficient.
    I went from having 1mbps to 70 mbps overnight a few years ago.

    If I ever move house again in the future, the first thing I'll check is the broadband/mobile coverage.
    This sounds weird but the days of a 56k dial-up modem were more satisfying. You had to work for your internet - and rack-up a nice bill while you were doing it.
    And keeping your parents off the phone.....

    The feeling of "will it connect" was a daily excitement.
    Dial up? When I were a lad, we ‘ad to build the bloody line every time before us could use it.

    (With apologies to the Four Yorkshiremen.)
  • I do think the Tory Party has a huge Islamophobia problem, it just doesn't get reported as much as Labour's anti-Semitism
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,696

    Disgraceful.

    Boris Johnson is as bad as Corbyn on antisemitism when it comes to dealing with Islamophobia.

    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1196482486605402112

    Agreed, but Johnson is given a free pass on every lie, every doctored video, every casually cynical photo opportunity, every financial scandal, every sexual impropriety, every false statistic, every carefully constructed racial dog-whistle. The BBC claims it is here to report Johnson's claims, not to question their accuracy, even when they are known to be utter fabrications. Interesting analysis from Oborne in The Guardian.

    It is absolutely true Johnson's main opponent is quite repulsive. If one is called out as the hideous charlatan he clearly is, so should the other equally hideous charlatan.
    "It is absolutely true..."

    Serious failure to differentiate between your opinion and verifable fact there.
  • ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Endillion said:

    Corbyn has the ability to skewer Johnson on Brexit IMHO, if he can get him on the ropes in terms of what he intends to actually deliver.

    So far it's "get Brexit done" but very few have asked "what the hell does that mean"?

    Er, what? It means signing the deal he's agreed with the EU, leaving on or before 31 Jan, and then agreeing the trade agreement everyone says he can't get, having learnt nothing from being wrong about the deal he wasn't supposed to be able to get.

    You really think clarity on Brexit is a strength for Corbyn?
    Corbyn couldn't care less about Brexit one way or another. He's neutral remember. He wants to talk about class war and socialist revolution. With Free broadband.
    At 30mbps.
    How do people cope with only 30 Mbps?
    It helps to live on your own so no other bastard is stealing your WiFi signal.
    This is the broadband speed I have to share with four others. It is a hard life.


    Mine are 26 and 4.

    But tbh it’s usually more than sufficient.
    I went from having 1mbps to 70 mbps overnight a few years ago.

    If I ever move house again in the future, the first thing I'll check is the broadband/mobile coverage.
    This sounds weird but the days of a 56k dial-up modem were more satisfying. You had to work for your internet - and rack-up a nice bill while you were doing it.
    And keeping your parents off the phone.....

    The feeling of "will it connect" was a daily excitement.
    I remember those days, remember the heady days of AOL and Freeserve.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,494
    Quick question: is there a spreadsheet anywhere which states which parties are standing in each seat?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424

    Disgraceful.

    Boris Johnson is as bad as Corbyn on antisemitism when it comes to dealing with Islamophobia.

    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1196482486605402112

    Agreed, but Johnson is given a free pass on every lie, every doctored video, every casually cynical photo opportunity, every financial scandal, every sexual impropriety, every false statistic, every carefully constructed racial dog-whistle. The BBC claims it is here to report Johnson's claims, not to question their accuracy, even when they are known to be utter fabrications. Interesting analysis from Oborne in The Guardian.

    It is absolutely true Johnson's main opponent is quite repulsive. If one is called out as the hideous charlatan he clearly is, so should the other equally hideous charlatan.
    "It is absolutely true..."

    Serious failure to differentiate between your opinion and verifable fact there.
    I’m intrigued. By what definition is Nigel Farage not ‘quite repulsive?’
  • Honestly I'd vote for Andrea Jenkyns/Mark Francois if it meant my broadband speed wasn't reduced.

    Would you accept Prince Andrew as your head of state (not that you'd have any choice in the matter)?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    spudgfsh said:

    Quick question: is there a spreadsheet anywhere which states which parties are standing in each seat?

    Probably a better one out there, but the SOPN one shows that
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/162fAv5xiV0XQjc5ii2eVYgZlFzvDP9KvL3VWvIe0bWo/edit#gid=0
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,494

    I do think the Tory Party has a huge Islamophobia problem, it just doesn't get reported as much as Labour's anti-Semitism

    I think it's because Labour pronounce themselves as an 'anti-racist' party.
  • Honestly I'd vote for Andrea Jenkyns/Mark Francois if it meant my broadband speed wasn't reduced.

    Would you accept Prince Andrew as your head of state (not that you'd have any choice in the matter)?
    No, His Royal Dryness (sic) can sod off.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,696
    Are we expecting the manifestos to be published this week?

    I'm genuinely interested to see what ends up in them given all the trailers we've had.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Where have the party leaders been visiting other than Doncaster North? https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/uk/where-have-the-main-party-leaders-visited-so-far-38702425.html
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    I do think the Tory Party has a huge Islamophobia problem, it just doesn't get reported as much as Labour's anti-Semitism

    Matter of time - it's taken years for Labour's woes to get to this point of reporting.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424

    Honestly I'd vote for Andrea Jenkyns/Mark Francois if it meant my broadband speed wasn't reduced.

    Would you accept Prince Andrew as your head of state (not that you'd have any choice in the matter)?
    No, His Royal Dryness (sic) can sod off.
    His Royal Highnonce?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,696
    ydoethur said:

    Disgraceful.

    Boris Johnson is as bad as Corbyn on antisemitism when it comes to dealing with Islamophobia.

    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1196482486605402112

    Agreed, but Johnson is given a free pass on every lie, every doctored video, every casually cynical photo opportunity, every financial scandal, every sexual impropriety, every false statistic, every carefully constructed racial dog-whistle. The BBC claims it is here to report Johnson's claims, not to question their accuracy, even when they are known to be utter fabrications. Interesting analysis from Oborne in The Guardian.

    It is absolutely true Johnson's main opponent is quite repulsive. If one is called out as the hideous charlatan he clearly is, so should the other equally hideous charlatan.
    "It is absolutely true..."

    Serious failure to differentiate between your opinion and verifable fact there.
    I’m intrigued. By what definition is Nigel Farage not ‘quite repulsive?’
    :lol:

    Good point - I'm struggling to answer that one.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,386

    Disgraceful.

    Boris Johnson is as bad as Corbyn on antisemitism when it comes to dealing with Islamophobia.

    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1196482486605402112

    Agreed, but Johnson is given a free pass on every lie, every doctored video, every casually cynical photo opportunity, every financial scandal, every sexual impropriety, every false statistic, every carefully constructed racial dog-whistle. The BBC claims it is here to report Johnson's claims, not to question their accuracy, even when they are known to be utter fabrications. Interesting analysis from Oborne in The Guardian.

    It is absolutely true Johnson's main opponent is quite repulsive. If one is called out as the hideous charlatan he clearly is, so should the other equally hideous charlatan.
    "It is absolutely true..."

    Serious failure to differentiate between your opinion and verifable fact there.
    My opinion is that Corbyn is truly a vile man. Is that better?

    I accept that by and large the media analysis of Corbyn is accurate, on the basis of his past actions. The media analysis of Johnson as a cuddly buffoon is less so.

    I would be far more comfortable with a Corbyn minority government, than I would a Johnson majority government.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,494
    kle4 said:

    spudgfsh said:

    Quick question: is there a spreadsheet anywhere which states which parties are standing in each seat?

    Probably a better one out there, but the SOPN one shows that
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/162fAv5xiV0XQjc5ii2eVYgZlFzvDP9KvL3VWvIe0bWo/edit#gid=0
    I can work with that. All I've got to do is work out what I'm going to do with votes where parties are not standing now.
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Endillion said:

    Corbyn has the ability to skewer Johnson on Brexit IMHO, if he can get him on the ropes in terms of what he intends to actually deliver.

    So far it's "get Brexit done" but very few have asked "what the hell does that mean"?

    Er, what? It means signing the deal he's agreed with the EU, leaving on or before 31 Jan, and then agreeing the trade agreement everyone says he can't get, having learnt nothing from being wrong about the deal he wasn't supposed to be able to get.

    You really think clarity on Brexit is a strength for Corbyn?
    Corbyn couldn't care less about Brexit one way or another. He's neutral remember. He wants to talk about class war and socialist revolution. With Free broadband.
    At 30mbps.
    How do people cope with only 30 Mbps?
    It helps to live on your own so no other bastard is stealing your WiFi signal.
    This is the broadband speed I have to share with four others. It is a hard life.


    If users of PB not living in cities list their usually dire broadband download speed it might explain why Corbyn is offering - I assume - fibre to the premises by 2030. 30 Mb/s is sheer luxury. I get 10.7. From 2005, until a week ago, I got 5.6 Mb/s.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    Are we expecting the manifestos to be published this week?

    I'm genuinely interested to see what ends up in them given all the trailers we've had.

    Labour's is this Thursday I believe. LDs should be smart and get theirs out Wednesday, try to make Labour's look lame by comparison (apart from the glorious spending which cannot be matched), or that Labour are following the LDs lead.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    edited November 2019
    kle4 said:

    I do think the Tory Party has a huge Islamophobia problem, it just doesn't get reported as much as Labour's anti-Semitism

    Matter of time - it's taken years for Labour's woes to get to this point of reporting.
    Shami cleared them though. And got a Peerage for her trouble. So I fail to see the problem inherent within Labour :wink:
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,696
    spudgfsh said:

    Quick question: is there a spreadsheet anywhere which states which parties are standing in each seat?

    Quick answer: Yes
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424

    Disgraceful.

    Boris Johnson is as bad as Corbyn on antisemitism when it comes to dealing with Islamophobia.

    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1196482486605402112

    Agreed, but Johnson is given a free pass on every lie, every doctored video, every casually cynical photo opportunity, every financial scandal, every sexual impropriety, every false statistic, every carefully constructed racial dog-whistle. The BBC claims it is here to report Johnson's claims, not to question their accuracy, even when they are known to be utter fabrications. Interesting analysis from Oborne in The Guardian.

    It is absolutely true Johnson's main opponent is quite repulsive. If one is called out as the hideous charlatan he clearly is, so should the other equally hideous charlatan.
    "It is absolutely true..."

    Serious failure to differentiate between your opinion and verifable fact there.
    My opinion is that Corbyn is truly a vile man. Is that better?

    I accept that by and large the media analysis of Corbyn is accurate, on the basis of his past actions. The media analysis of Johnson as a cuddly buffoon is less so.

    I would be far more comfortable with a Corbyn minority government, than I would a Johnson majority government.
    Well, he certainly ain’t cuddly.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,494

    spudgfsh said:

    Quick question: is there a spreadsheet anywhere which states which parties are standing in each seat?

    Quick answer: Yes
    I deserved that...
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Corbyn has the ability to skewer Johnson on Brexit IMHO, if he can get him on the ropes in terms of what he intends to actually deliver.

    So far it's "get Brexit done" but very few have asked "what the hell does that mean"?

    Don't you think Corbyn's position leaves him vulnerable on that subject?
    I think Labour's position is honestly more clear than Johnson's.

    I know Labour will end up with a soft EEA-style Brexit and it will be up against Remain.

    I have no bloody clue what Johnson's will look like.

    I accept the public don't agree - but that is up to Corbyn to prove otherwise.
    Labour's position is clearer than Johnson's? You're having a laugh, aren't you?
    Perhaps you could clarify Bozo's Brexit plan for me. What happens if and when we find there is no time to agree an EU trade deal by next summer. Do we leave without a trade deal and become a third country or do we extend the transition period? As far as I can ascertain, Bozo has expressed opposition to both options.

    For sake of clarity I am not claiming Corbyn's is necessarily any clearer but I do at least understand what I think he will do if elected.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    spudgfsh said:

    Quick question: is there a spreadsheet anywhere which states which parties are standing in each seat?

    Quick answer: Yes
    "Y" would have been quicker, no? :p
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,533
    Drutt said:



    and bring up the spreadsheet, then right-shift to show the extra cross-tabs, you find a column "Labour 2017 and majority

    Does any other pollster give these crossbreaks, and do they also point to very efficient LAB defensive votes?

    I don't think any other pollster has done this crossbreak.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,696
    spudgfsh said:

    spudgfsh said:

    Quick question: is there a spreadsheet anywhere which states which parties are standing in each seat?

    Quick answer: Yes
    I deserved that...
    Sorry, I just didn't have it to hand...

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1195648978974658560?s=20
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,696
    RobD said:

    spudgfsh said:

    Quick question: is there a spreadsheet anywhere which states which parties are standing in each seat?

    Quick answer: Yes
    "Y" would have been quicker, no? :p
    Y
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    I wonder what Ed M did to upset people to end up more candidates standing in his seat than any other seat (other than Uxbridge). Tied with Lewisham East.

    No seats with only 2 candidates, but 19 with only 3 I see.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    edited November 2019

    Could that simply reflect that remainers are, however reluctantly, beginning to line up behind the best placed anti-Brexit candidate. There are after all more Labour remain candidates in a position to win than Lib Dems.

    If on the other hand remainers are simply splitting in those proportions across every seat Bozo is in for a huge majority.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,696
    OllyT said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Corbyn has the ability to skewer Johnson on Brexit IMHO, if he can get him on the ropes in terms of what he intends to actually deliver.

    So far it's "get Brexit done" but very few have asked "what the hell does that mean"?

    Don't you think Corbyn's position leaves him vulnerable on that subject?
    I think Labour's position is honestly more clear than Johnson's.

    I know Labour will end up with a soft EEA-style Brexit and it will be up against Remain.

    I have no bloody clue what Johnson's will look like.

    I accept the public don't agree - but that is up to Corbyn to prove otherwise.
    Labour's position is clearer than Johnson's? You're having a laugh, aren't you?
    Perhaps you could clarify Bozo's Brexit plan for me. What happens if and when we find there is no time to agree an EU trade deal by next summer. Do we leave without a trade deal and become a third country or do we extend the transition period? As far as I can ascertain, Bozo has expressed opposition to both options.

    For sake of clarity I am not claiming Corbyn's is necessarily any clearer but I do at least understand what I think he will do if elected.
    This...

    ...is why we are going to be having the same debate next December (unless there's an upset in the GE) imo.
  • Are we expecting the manifestos to be published this week?

    I'm genuinely interested to see what ends up in them given all the trailers we've had.

    Tories Manifesto due out on 13/12/19
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,386
    ydoethur said:

    Disgraceful.

    Boris Johnson is as bad as Corbyn on antisemitism when it comes to dealing with Islamophobia.

    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1196482486605402112

    Agreed, but Johnson is given a free pass on every lie, every doctored video, every casually cynical photo opportunity, every financial scandal, every sexual impropriety, every false statistic, every carefully constructed racial dog-whistle. The BBC claims it is here to report Johnson's claims, not to question their accuracy, even when they are known to be utter fabrications. Interesting analysis from Oborne in The Guardian.

    It is absolutely true Johnson's main opponent is quite repulsive. If one is called out as the hideous charlatan he clearly is, so should the other equally hideous charlatan.
    "It is absolutely true..."

    Serious failure to differentiate between your opinion and verifable fact there.
    My opinion is that Corbyn is truly a vile man. Is that better?

    I accept that by and large the media analysis of Corbyn is accurate, on the basis of his past actions. The media analysis of Johnson as a cuddly buffoon is less so.

    I would be far more comfortable with a Corbyn minority government, than I would a Johnson majority government.
    Well, he certainly ain’t cuddly.
    To you he may be an idle and feckless blancmange, to others his portly stature makes him merely cuddly.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,614

    I do think the Tory Party has a huge Islamophobia problem, it just doesn't get reported as much as Labour's anti-Semitism

    The wish is father to the thought.....
  • ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Endillion said:

    Corbyn has the ability to skewer Johnson on Brexit IMHO, if he can get him on the ropes in terms of what he intends to actually deliver.

    So far it's "get Brexit done" but very few have asked "what the hell does that mean"?

    Er, what? It means signing the deal he's agreed with the EU, leaving on or before 31 Jan, and then agreeing the trade agreement everyone says he can't get, having learnt nothing from being wrong about the deal he wasn't supposed to be able to get.

    You really think clarity on Brexit is a strength for Corbyn?
    Corbyn couldn't care less about Brexit one way or another. He's neutral remember. He wants to talk about class war and socialist revolution. With Free broadband.
    At 30mbps.
    How do people cope with only 30 Mbps?
    It helps to live on your own so no other bastard is stealing your WiFi signal.
    This is the broadband speed I have to share with four others. It is a hard life.


    What on earth can you possibly do to need all that?

    Seriously, I get 48Mbps down and 14 up - I certainly wouldn't pay for more.
    I'm only paying £26.99 a month for that, got a good deal with Virgin.

    I have the kids on PS4, my parents are silver surfers, my father is constantly streaming UHD content on Netflix/Amazon Prime, my mother is regular video calling her friends and family all across the world.

    Me I use it to upload content to the UK's most popular political blog and watch a lot of UHD content on Sky.
    Right - makes more sense when you put it like that.
    And what happens to Virgin when the free owls fibres are being distributed to every voter?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,696
    kle4 said:

    Are we expecting the manifestos to be published this week?

    I'm genuinely interested to see what ends up in them given all the trailers we've had.

    Labour's is this Thursday I believe. LDs should be smart and get theirs out Wednesday, try to make Labour's look lame by comparison (apart from the glorious spending which cannot be matched), or that Labour are following the LDs lead.
    And the Tories?

    Or do they not really feel the need for one, given they have an oven-ready Brexit to offer?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,696

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Endillion said:

    Corbyn has the ability to skewer Johnson on Brexit IMHO, if he can get him on the ropes in terms of what he intends to actually deliver.

    So far it's "get Brexit done" but very few have asked "what the hell does that mean"?

    Er, what? It means signing the deal he's agreed with the EU, leaving on or before 31 Jan, and then agreeing the trade agreement everyone says he can't get, having learnt nothing from being wrong about the deal he wasn't supposed to be able to get.

    You really think clarity on Brexit is a strength for Corbyn?
    Corbyn couldn't care less about Brexit one way or another. He's neutral remember. He wants to talk about class war and socialist revolution. With Free broadband.
    At 30mbps.
    How do people cope with only 30 Mbps?
    It helps to live on your own so no other bastard is stealing your WiFi signal.
    This is the broadband speed I have to share with four others. It is a hard life.


    What on earth can you possibly do to need all that?

    Seriously, I get 48Mbps down and 14 up - I certainly wouldn't pay for more.
    I'm only paying £26.99 a month for that, got a good deal with Virgin.

    I have the kids on PS4, my parents are silver surfers, my father is constantly streaming UHD content on Netflix/Amazon Prime, my mother is regular video calling her friends and family all across the world.

    Me I use it to upload content to the UK's most popular political blog and watch a lot of UHD content on Sky.
    Right - makes more sense when you put it like that.
    And what happens to Virgin when the free owls fibres are being distributed to every voter?
    Who cares?
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Endillion said:

    Corbyn has the ability to skewer Johnson on Brexit IMHO, if he can get him on the ropes in terms of what he intends to actually deliver.

    So far it's "get Brexit done" but very few have asked "what the hell does that mean"?

    Er, what? It means signing the deal he's agreed with the EU, leaving on or before 31 Jan, and then agreeing the trade agreement everyone says he can't get, having learnt nothing from being wrong about the deal he wasn't supposed to be able to get.

    You really think clarity on Brexit is a strength for Corbyn?
    Corbyn couldn't care less about Brexit one way or another. He's neutral remember. He wants to talk about class war and socialist revolution. With Free broadband.
    At 30mbps.
    How do people cope with only 30 Mbps?
    It helps to live on your own so no other bastard is stealing your WiFi signal.
    This is the broadband speed I have to share with four others. It is a hard life.


    What on earth can you possibly do to need all that?

    Seriously, I get 48Mbps down and 14 up - I certainly wouldn't pay for more.
    I'm only paying £26.99 a month for that, got a good deal with Virgin.

    I have the kids on PS4, my parents are silver surfers, my father is constantly streaming UHD content on Netflix/Amazon Prime, my mother is regular video calling her friends and family all across the world.

    Me I use it to upload content to the UK's most popular political blog and watch a lot of UHD content on Sky.
    Right - makes more sense when you put it like that.
    And what happens to Virgin when the free owls fibres are being distributed to every voter?
    I get the feeling the "Free Broadband" is Corbyn's Edstone moment.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    kle4 said:

    Are we expecting the manifestos to be published this week?

    I'm genuinely interested to see what ends up in them given all the trailers we've had.

    Labour's is this Thursday I believe. LDs should be smart and get theirs out Wednesday, try to make Labour's look lame by comparison (apart from the glorious spending which cannot be matched), or that Labour are following the LDs lead.
    And the Tories?

    Or do they not really feel the need for one, given they have an oven-ready Brexit to offer?
    I think they'll delay it as long as they can. It's expected, but again I think they are scared of what happened last time.
  • I do think the Tory Party has a huge Islamophobia problem, it just doesn't get reported as much as Labour's anti-Semitism

    Because critics of the Tories are so quiet?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,696
    edited November 2019

    Are we expecting the manifestos to be published this week?

    I'm genuinely interested to see what ends up in them given all the trailers we've had.

    Tories Manifesto due out on 13/12/19

    Welcome to PB @bigjohnowls1!

    Good to have fresh voices - just make sure you don't forget your password! :lol:
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Endillion said:

    Corbyn has the ability to skewer Johnson on Brexit IMHO, if he can get him on the ropes in terms of what he intends to actually deliver.

    So far it's "get Brexit done" but very few have asked "what the hell does that mean"?

    Er, what? It means signing the deal he's agreed with the EU, leaving on or before 31 Jan, and then agreeing the trade agreement everyone says he can't get, having learnt nothing from being wrong about the deal he wasn't supposed to be able to get.

    You really think clarity on Brexit is a strength for Corbyn?
    Corbyn couldn't care less about Brexit one way or another. He's neutral remember. He wants to talk about class war and socialist revolution. With Free broadband.
    At 30mbps.
    How do people cope with only 30 Mbps?
    It helps to live on your own so no other bastard is stealing your WiFi signal.
    This is the broadband speed I have to share with four others. It is a hard life.


    What on earth can you possibly do to need all that?

    Seriously, I get 48Mbps down and 14 up - I certainly wouldn't pay for more.
    I'm only paying £26.99 a month for that, got a good deal with Virgin.

    I have the kids on PS4, my parents are silver surfers, my father is constantly streaming UHD content on Netflix/Amazon Prime, my mother is regular video calling her friends and family all across the world.

    Me I use it to upload content to the UK's most popular political blog and watch a lot of UHD content on Sky.
    Right - makes more sense when you put it like that.
    And what happens to Virgin when the free owls fibres are being distributed to every voter?
    Asbestosis?
  • ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Endillion said:

    Corbyn has the ability to skewer Johnson on Brexit IMHO, if he can get him on the ropes in terms of what he intends to actually deliver.

    So far it's "get Brexit done" but very few have asked "what the hell does that mean"?

    Er, what? It means signing the deal he's agreed with the EU, leaving on or before 31 Jan, and then agreeing the trade agreement everyone says he can't get, having learnt nothing from being wrong about the deal he wasn't supposed to be able to get.

    You really think clarity on Brexit is a strength for Corbyn?
    Corbyn couldn't care less about Brexit one way or another. He's neutral remember. He wants to talk about class war and socialist revolution. With Free broadband.
    At 30mbps.
    How do people cope with only 30 Mbps?
    It helps to live on your own so no other bastard is stealing your WiFi signal.
    This is the broadband speed I have to share with four others. It is a hard life.


    What on earth can you possibly do to need all that?

    Seriously, I get 48Mbps down and 14 up - I certainly wouldn't pay for more.
    I'm only paying £26.99 a month for that, got a good deal with Virgin.

    I have the kids on PS4, my parents are silver surfers, my father is constantly streaming UHD content on Netflix/Amazon Prime, my mother is regular video calling her friends and family all across the world.

    Me I use it to upload content to the UK's most popular political blog and watch a lot of UHD content on Sky.
    Right - makes more sense when you put it like that.
    And what happens to Virgin when the free owls fibres are being distributed to every voter?
    I get the feeling the "Free Broadband" is Corbyn's Edstone moment.
    I dunno. It could either way. One thing is for sure. It totally blindsided the Tories.

    One thing they should start to hammer away at is that John McD told big business he had no further tricks up his sleeves on nationalisation.

    There's an unparliamentary word for that.
  • Are we expecting the manifestos to be published this week?

    I'm genuinely interested to see what ends up in them given all the trailers we've had.

    Tories Manifesto due out on 13/12/19

    Welcome to PB @bigjohnowls1!

    Good to have fresh voices - just make sure you don't forget your password! :lol:
    I have been a long time lurker

    This is my 2nd post
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,386

    I do think the Tory Party has a huge Islamophobia problem, it just doesn't get reported as much as Labour's anti-Semitism

    The wish is father to the thought.....
    MarqueeMark is definitely not Baroness Warsi's PB moniker then.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    Ladbrokes- Debate winner (Snap YouGov poll)
    Corbyn 8/11
    Boris Evens
  • To me, this photo as the air of a campaign that knows it is losing.

    https://twitter.com/Rachael_Swindon/status/1196510004947357701
This discussion has been closed.