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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why Johnson’s TV debate strategy could be a mistake
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why Johnson’s TV debate strategy could be a mistake
Two. Ignore everything you think about the candidates and their abilities: head-to-head is harder for the incumbent PM, because they are the only one with a record to defend. https://t.co/7VWTL4KXWF
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And more wishful thinking above the line, I'm afraid.
I know, I know, I need to cut down on the psycho-active drugs.
https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1196493871926202368
In constituencies that voted Remain in the 2016 EU referendum (according to estimates collated by the House of Commons Library), the Conservatives lead Labour by 5 points (37% vs. 32%), while in constituencies that voted to Leave, the Conservative lead is well into double figures – 12 points – with the Tories on 45% and Labour on 33%.”
Leave constituency figures look good for the Tories.
The thread header makes some good points. As things stand now a scrappy 7 header would be perfect for Boris.
1. Showing cowardice makes you look weak, and is the fastest way to lose a poll lead if you have one - it was certainly disastrous for May. No guts, no glory.
2. Avoiding the debate allows a section of the electorate to fantasise that Corbyn might be OK as PM because no one from the Tories has ever challenged him head to head. In the US, a Presidential election without debates is inconceivable because you need to see how the two contenders for the top job compare side by side. It's about time we got that clarity here.
I am sure that, had Johnson passed on the debates, Stephen Bush would be writing and tweeting to the effect that it is a mistake to vacate the field, show the lack of confidence in one's own position, and to run away from someone his party has labelled a dangerous incompetent.
Whether Boris is the best person for the job is itself highly debatable but he’s the PM and fair play for him standing up and being counted.
Comment I saw on the ICM poll.
"Some interesting tables from this poll.
- Labour constituencies with majorities under 10%: Lab 44% Tory 33%
- Tory constituencies with majorities under 10%: Tory 51% Lab 25%
Suggests the Tories are piling up votes in seats they already hold while Labour are hanging on in their seats."
Can anyone verify it?
Imagine if Swinson had sent Umunna and Corbyn had pulled out at the last minute.
Tory FB ads to 'activate'.
Short of Boris doing a Prince Andrew and/or Corbyn suddenly acquiring Obama levels of eloquence and persuasion its unlikely to push the needle much either way. Not to mention attention spans are now even shorter than in the brief heady days of Cleggmania, just ask Kamala Harris.
He has plenty of amunition to attack Corbyn on
On another subject
At today's CBI Jo Swinson said she would scap business rates
We then had one of the many useless Sky presenters musing on how good this was as the lib dems landtax would apply to the landlord, releasing the business from the rate cost. He clearly had not even considered that the business would just face an equivalent increase in the rent to compensate
There's a number of potential improvements I could make to my previous models.
1) produce a rating system for each seat (from Safe, Likely, Lean to Tossup) and work out how close a seat needs to be to be in each one.
2) work out the volatility and use that to produce a non-uniform swing method.
3) work out, for each seat, how the parties who are not standing are going to react.
4) manually predict buckingham
It gives;
Con/Lab/LD
302/264/21
It has stronger tactical effects than were present in 2017. Richmond Park went LibDem for instance.
I am just as worried as the rest of the anti-Labour pessimists that Johnson will stuff this up, but there is some reason to be hopeful. His task in this debate is actually quite simple. His record should be relatively easy to defend - he won the London Mayoralty twice, not many people will care about his competence or otherwise as Foreign Secretary, and he has that Withdrawal Agreement to sell, so he can concentrate on reminding the electorate that Labour wants to spend 17 squintillion quid on everything and that all of that spending will bankrupt the country and take all of them down along with it. Everyone has something to lose from that, apart from those who are already dirt poor who were only ever going to vote Labour in any case.
Beyond that, we also need to remind ourselves that 2017 was an exceptional election in that a dramatic shift in public opinion was measured during the course of the campaign. In a typical election campaign, most members of the public aren't paying much attention and most of those who are have already made their minds up, and will cherry-pick whatever comes out of a debate that best confirms their own opinions.
It is entirely possible that the debates will make little or no difference, and that your average voter will show more interest in I'm A Celebrity and the latest Prince Andrew revelations than they will in two politicians fighting at the end of years and years of politicians fighting.
That was hilarious.
I doubt the 30% voting for him now are going to disappear if he has a bad night.
But if he has a good night, he might get some of the undecided Labour voters back. And he may bring more Remainers back too.
He's going to get attacked on Brexit - but I wonder if he will be able to attack Johnson's lack of a plan and also prove (which is true) that Johnson's deal is not the end of Brexit at all.
Then again, where is Hammond now?
Ah....
But the Remain side might, in sufficient numbers.
One may be setting up near you soon!
Re the Brexit thing, it's true it's in the first half - but it's also possible that the second half being on much stronger ground for Labour, is a net negative for Johnson.
We will see.
Shirley the author of the letter isn't that cliched and thick?
I am tempted to make my own as I don't think its fair to criticise Barnesian who at least has put his head above the parapet and not do something of my own.
I hope you do publish a final version on the 12th, and I hope it proves accurate, but if it doesn't: no reason to be embarrassed about having made an honest attempt at a seat prediction model.
https://www.icmunlimited.com/our-work/icm-voting-intentions-poll-general-election-2019-3/
and bring up the spreadsheet, then right-shift to show the extra cross-tabs, you find a column "Labour 2017 and majority <10% (E&W)". This is the target area where the parties are throwing most of their efforts.The figures for this subsample are;
Cn 33%
Lab 44%
LD 6%
BXP 125
Green 1%
If those figures were correct it'd be sensational - it would basically mean that Labour was getting out the tactical vote where it mattered. contrast with the Tory margin in the seats which were Tory in 2017 with majorities under 10%, which is where Labour would hope for gains in a normal year:
Con 51%
Lab 25%
LD 16%
BXP 0%
The problem is that the subsamples are tiny - 121 and 148 respectively. But the difference is so striking that it seems worth noting. Labour is set to make zero gains as things stand. But possibly not that many losses.
Bumped into some jolly Lib dem canvassers tonight in Surton and Cheam..they had been down to Cheltenham at the weekend and were very bullish about their chances there..much less so in Sutton. They also think they have a chance in Mole valley(con maj around 23000)
https://www.britishelectionstudy.com/data-object/2017-bes-constituency-results-with-census-and-candidate-data/
I know this did not exactly endear him to the ERG.
It is ironic to reflect, incidentally, that at the time he entered Parliament he was seen as a very hardline Eurosceptic.
Boris Johnson is as bad as Corbyn on antisemitism when it comes to dealing with Islamophobia.
https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1196482486605402112
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/flatfile.html
Take with as much salt as you wish
I have no doubt a Corbyn-led Government won't last very long - but it may well hold together long enough to either force Corbyn to resign, or to have another referendum.
So far it's "get Brexit done" but very few have asked "what the hell does that mean"?