It has never struck me until this morning that regular posters on PB are (it seems to me) overwhelmingly urbanites, living in large towns and cities. Few of you seem to write from the perspective of living in a rural community. I also suspect the majority of you live in the south-east of England. Accordingly your thinking about how voters think or vote are "coloured" by the communities within which you live. No doubt I will be greeted with howls of protest but it would be an interesting exercise for all regular PBers to disclose in which constituency they live and vote. You all know I live in the most northerly mainland constituency Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross which is larger than the entire Home Counties I think.
I live in a small village on the edge of Newcastle upon Tyne.
Mr. Pointer, Cameron's electoral strategist (Crosby?) had a philosophy of getting barnacles off the boat, stopping side-issues detracting from the central message so the ship sails smoothly.
It has never struck me until this morning that regular posters on PB are (it seems to me) overwhelmingly urbanites, living in large towns and cities. Few of you seem to write from the perspective of living in a rural community. I also suspect the majority of you live in the south-east of England. Accordingly your thinking about how voters think or vote are "coloured" by the communities within which you live. No doubt I will be greeted with howls of protest but it would be an interesting exercise for all regular PBers to disclose in which constituency they live and vote. You all know I live in the most northerly mainland constituency Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross which is larger than the entire Home Counties I think.
I live in a small village on the edge of Newcastle upon Tyne.
Sunderland?
Haha. Not quite. I’m equidistant between Newcastle City Centre and Morpeth.
I live next to Thornberry's constituency, there is no way she's losing. This is clearly expectations management for when they do lose a few seats in London.
Mine (Hampstead and Kilburn) is going to be an interesting three way fight, we could definitely come through the middle. The local MP isn't that popular and loads of middle class Labour voters around where I live are actively supporting the Lib Dems with window posters, bollocks to brexit etc...
It has never struck me until this morning that regular posters on PB are (it seems to me) overwhelmingly urbanites, living in large towns and cities. Few of you seem to write from the perspective of living in a rural community. I also suspect the majority of you live in the south-east of England. Accordingly your thinking about how voters think or vote are "coloured" by the communities within which you live. No doubt I will be greeted with howls of protest but it would be an interesting exercise for all regular PBers to disclose in which constituency they live and vote. You all know I live in the most northerly mainland constituency Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross which is larger than the entire Home Counties I think.
I live in a small village on the edge of Newcastle upon Tyne.
Perhaps for the next few days we should all state our place of residence next to our posts. It would be an interesting exercise, and improve our geographical knowledge.
Any bookies offering odds on Farage getting a peerage/knighthood in the next 14 months?
That would be a disgrace.
Absolutely agree - unless the supposed offer was made by rentagob repellants like Francois or Bridgen & who would hopefully have no authority to make any such suggestions!
What do you make of the disgrace Raheem Sterling? He should never again play for England.
Why - did he offer Farage a peerage?
He became involved in a physical altercation with a team mate. He’s been dropped for the next match.
Any bookies offering odds on Farage getting a peerage/knighthood in the next 14 months?
That would be a disgrace.
Absolutely agree - unless the supposed offer was made by rentagob repellants like Francois or Bridgen & who would hopefully have no authority to make any such suggestions!
What do you make of the disgrace Raheem Sterling? He should never again play for England.
Why - did he offer Farage a peerage?
He became involved in a physical altercation with a team mate. He’s been dropped for the next match.
It has never struck me until this morning that regular posters on PB are (it seems to me) overwhelmingly urbanites, living in large towns and cities. Few of you seem to write from the perspective of living in a rural community. I also suspect the majority of you live in the south-east of England. Accordingly your thinking about how voters think or vote are "coloured" by the communities within which you live. No doubt I will be greeted with howls of protest but it would be an interesting exercise for all regular PBers to disclose in which constituency they live and vote. You all know I live in the most northerly mainland constituency Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross which is larger than the entire Home Counties I think.
I live in a small village on the edge of Newcastle upon Tyne.
Perhaps for the next few days we should all state our place of residence next to our posts. It would be an interesting exercise, and improve our geographical knowledge.
How the hell does Labour come up with an election strategy when it is firefighting the seat of a senior party figure, fourth in the betting for future Labour leader, with a 14,000 majority?
Writing as a liberal Conservative myself, Farage's move doesn't make the slightest difference. There is no Con deal with the Brexit Party - Farage has unilaterally capitulated. His decision doesn't affect Tory policy or actions so I don't see why it should influence my thinking.
Of much more relevance is the failure to publish the report on Russian involvement / influence.
Which, as I pointed out yesterday, has already been leaked.
The loyalists on here have already discounted the leak as containing nothing of consequence, but none of them answered the obvious question of "If it is so unimportant, why fail to publish it?"
They had to complete all the review process by Nov 8.
Those take time.
It is perfect plausible that Downing Street moves slowly for political benefit but that is an allegation - the 3 week review process would be at the faster end (IIRC 2 weeks is the absolute minimum).
But why did someone leak a sensitive non public intelligence report before it has gone through the official process?
I don't think so either. The public may well think differently though. The UKIP takeover of the Tories is nearly complete.
It is No Deal at the end of Transition imo. BoZo has promised* no extension.
*though obviously his promises are worth nothing.
The thing about Johnson's lies is that they are not necessary. He was always going to be beat Corbyn. All that he is doing is storing up huge problems for himself and the country. It makes noi sense to me, except to the extent that Johnson cannot help himself - he is genuinely a congenital liar.
May presumed she was always going to beat Corbyn. Look where that nearly landed us.
So you are saying that the only way to beat Corbyn is to lie. That is not going to end well for either the Tories or the UK, Philip.
No. I'm suggesting don't be arrogant or take anything for granted.
Lying to the electorate is the height of arrogance.
They are all liars to some extent or another, there isn't a politician alive nay even yet to be born who will not dissemble.
I have some sympathy for politicans on this one. We attack them for not taking firm positions on anything. If they do, and then change position due to new circumstances or information or a change of mind, we attack them for telling lies in the first place or now telling lies.
Yes, can we blame them for telling us only what we want to hear?
Of course, some do it more shamelessly than others.......
Is the a deal or has the BXP did this of it's own accord ?
Don't be stupid of course it is a deal.
It’s like the greens standing aside in Scotland every Westminster election.
They don't stand aside, they have no support and cannot afford to lose deposits in most seats you f***ing numpty. It is also a local constituency decision not a country wide stitch up for gain.
I know you dont like me being a vascillating fanny malc, so I have to say you sound like an utter fool this morning.
You are seriously tying yourself in knots to get outraged that one set of parties work together and thats terrible but when others do it's fine.
I'm sorry, but if a party says its not standing somewhere to help another then it's the same, even though the extents can be different.
It's either outrageous or it isn't for parties to work together formally or otherwise, you cannot widdle yourself in rage at one and not another, it looks bloody ridiculous and were it not that I trust people mean what they say itd be hard to believe it sincere it's so silly.
How the hell does Labour come up with an election strategy when it is firefighting the seat of a senior party figure, fourth in the betting for future Labour leader, with a 14,000 majority?
It's expectations management. There's no way Labour lose in a constituency that is over 50% BME with high levels of private and social renting. Honestly, if Labour do lose there then they will finish under 140 seats.
BUT unlike the Brexit Party retreat which seems rather one-sided as deals go, the Lib Dem pact with a party who specifically wants to split off Wales from the UK is repugnant to me.
Simplistic I'm sure but I think it's a real turn off.
The remarkable thing about the LibDem/Plaid Cymru Alliance is that it is a real turn-off to both potential LibDem voters and Plaid Cymru voters. The party most likely to benefit is Labour (possible gains in Arfon and Vale of Glamorgan).
Let us recall which idiots thought of this idea.
Ah, yes, it was the ex-TIGgers. Heidi Allen and Co have been in charge.
The launch, hubris & demise of the TIGgers should be enough to persuade anyone that Heidi & Chuka & Co are telegenic faces, but have no real idea of practical politics.
On the contrary, they are the face of moderation, and perhaps conservatism in its real sense. It is people with extremely naïve utopian views on a revolutionary idea called Brexit such as yourself, who believe that it will bring benefits, when it is really just about small minded nationalism, that are the ones that have no idea about practicality and pragmatism. Time will prove my point.
I personally don't like pacts as it reduces voter choice. All pacts are inefficient, as 100 per cent of the vote never transfers.
An efficient pact needs two parties that are reasonably close. I can imagine pacts between the Tory Party and The Brexit party being reasonably efficient (~60 per cent) or even LibDems and the moderate wing of Labour (~60 per cent).
The LibDems and Plaid Cymru have little in common, and differ very fundamentally on the future of Wales. My guess is the efficiency of transfers is low.
However, it could easily be negative if in the absence of Plaid Cymru, a PC voter choses the Tories or Labour; or a LibDem voter choses moderate Labour.
The Plaid Cymru farming vote is often quite right-wing (Montgomeryshire). The Plaid Cymru urban vote is often quite left-wing (Cardiff Central).
How the hell does Labour come up with an election strategy when it is firefighting the seat of a senior party figure, fourth in the betting for future Labour leader, with a 14,000 majority?
I guess all the parties will be facing seats like that because "Realignment of British Politics". Bet there are a few northern Lab MPs looking over their shoulders at the Tories, and safe-ish Cons worried by LibDems in the south. And oddities posed by defectors/evictees standing against their old parties etc.
Some of the wilder expectations of (successful) new parties and huge splits to them have failed to come true, but Brexit could still redraw the dividing lines between the existing ones .
Any bookies offering odds on Farage getting a peerage/knighthood in the next 14 months?
That would be a disgrace.
Absolutely agree - unless the supposed offer was made by rentagob repellants like Francois or Bridgen & who would hopefully have no authority to make any such suggestions!
What do you make of the disgrace Raheem Sterling? He should never again play for England.
Why - did he offer Farage a peerage?
He became involved in a physical altercation with a team mate. He’s been dropped for the next match.
It has never struck me until this morning that regular posters on PB are (it seems to me) overwhelmingly urbanites, living in large towns and cities. Few of you seem to write from the perspective of living in a rural community. I also suspect the majority of you live in the south-east of England. Accordingly your thinking about how voters think or vote are "coloured" by the communities within which you live. No doubt I will be greeted with howls of protest but it would be an interesting exercise for all regular PBers to disclose in which constituency they live and vote. You all know I live in the most northerly mainland constituency Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross which is larger than the entire Home Counties I think.
I live in a small village on the edge of Newcastle upon Tyne.
Sunderland?
Haha. Not quite. I’m equidistant between Newcastle City Centre and Morpeth.
My other half's parents are getting a caravan in Creswell which I'll probably be visiting over the next years. Looks like a lovely part of the world.
It has never struck me until this morning that regular posters on PB are (it seems to me) overwhelmingly urbanites, living in large towns and cities. Few of you seem to write from the perspective of living in a rural community. I also suspect the majority of you live in the south-east of England. Accordingly your thinking about how voters think or vote are "coloured" by the communities within which you live. No doubt I will be greeted with howls of protest but it would be an interesting exercise for all regular PBers to disclose in which constituency they live and vote. You all know I live in the most northerly mainland constituency Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross which is larger than the entire Home Counties I think.
The London suburbs but with deep roots in Hampshire and the West Country
Writing as a liberal Conservative myself, Farage's move doesn't make the slightest difference. There is no Con deal with the Brexit Party - Farage has unilaterally capitulated. His decision doesn't affect Tory policy or actions so I don't see why it should influence my thinking.
Of much more relevance is the failure to publish the report on Russian involvement / influence.
Which, as I pointed out yesterday, has already been leaked.
The loyalists on here have already discounted the leak as containing nothing of consequence, but none of them answered the obvious question of "If it is so unimportant, why fail to publish it?"
They had to complete all the review process by Nov 8.
Those take time.
It is perfect plausible that Downing Street moves slowly for political benefit but that is an allegation - the 3 week review process would be at the faster end (IIRC 2 weeks is the absolute minimum).
But why did someone leak a sensitive non public intelligence report before it has gone through the official process?
Boris: 3 weeks to review and release a report of material interest to an election is unreasonable. Not allowing a 115 page bill with multiple cross references to other legislation through parliament and enacted in 3 days is deliberate obstruction, even though the additional time is available.
There is no petard big enough to hoist him on this one.
HELP PLEASE! Can the spreadbetting gurus please advise why there seems to be a big difference between SPIN Con seats and Con majority? To buy seats is 343 which is a majority of 36 and a max theoretical loss of 343? To buy majority is 27 with a max loss of 27. I get that you lose a bit more on 316 to 325 but am I missing something else? Also, anything above 343 you are making double on the majority compared to single on the seats? Thanks for any replies!
Writing as a liberal Conservative myself, Farage's move doesn't make the slightest difference. There is no Con deal with the Brexit Party - Farage has unilaterally capitulated. His decision doesn't affect Tory policy or actions so I don't see why it should influence my thinking.
Of much more relevance is the failure to publish the report on Russian involvement / influence.
Which, as I pointed out yesterday, has already been leaked.
The loyalists on here have already discounted the leak as containing nothing of consequence, but none of them answered the obvious question of "If it is so unimportant, why fail to publish it?"
They had to complete all the review process by Nov 8.
Those take time.
It is perfect plausible that Downing Street moves slowly for political benefit but that is an allegation - the 3 week review process would be at the faster end (IIRC 2 weeks is the absolute minimum).
But why did someone leak a sensitive non public intelligence report before it has gone through the official process?
Boris: 3 weeks to review and release a report is unreasonable. Not allowing a 115 page bill with multiple cross references to other legislation through parliament and enacted in 3 days is deliberate obstruction.
On topic - but it's not a 'deal', is it? Or as Nigel says, it's a unilateral deal - BXP have stooddown their candidates against sitting Tories whether the Tories wanted it or not.
Under PR voters get a proportion of what they voted for and there are few wasted votes. The Lib Dems didn't win in 2010 so had to make the best of the Tories policy on tuition fees (actually they could and should have stuck to their policy, but for some reason thought that other things were more important).
According to Cameron's autobiography Clegg wholesale rejected the Lib Dem policy and adopted the Conservative one. Even George Osborne advised him not to do so.
They didn't "make the best" they actively.decided to fuck over the people who voted for them.
HELP PLEASE! Can the spreadbetting gurus please advise why there seems to be a big difference between SPIN Con seats and Con majority? To buy seats is 343 which is a majority of 36 and a max theoretical loss of 343? To buy majority is 27 with a max loss of 27. I get that you lose a bit more on 316 to 325 but am I missing something else? Also, anything above 343 you are making double on the majority compared to single on the seats? Thanks for any replies!
No, I don't think you are missing anything. ANY majority is also at the same price in the unlikely event Corbynism (Or Jo !) sweeps the nation over the next month.
But voters don't choose with full information under PR.
Under FPTP parties compromise before the vote and voters can choose with full information.
Under PR first people vote and then parties make shady backroom deals and compromise but by then it's too late the voters have already voted.
We got a taste of that with the Coalition and Tuition Fees. After the voters have voted just pretend like you never said anything about fees.
Under PR voters get a proportion of what they voted for and there are few wasted votes. The Lib Dems didn't win in 2010 so had to make the best of the Tories policy on tuition fees (actually they could and should have stuck to their policy, but for some reason thought that other things were more important).
No they don't get what they voted for as nobody gets a majority so what they voted for isn't what happens, the post voting dodgy backroom deal is what they get instead. Voters are circumvented.
BUT unlike the Brexit Party retreat which seems rather one-sided as deals go, the Lib Dem pact with a party who specifically wants to split off Wales from the UK is repugnant to me.
Simplistic I'm sure but I think it's a real turn off.
The remarkable thing about the LibDem/Plaid Cymru Alliance is that it is a real turn-off to both potential LibDem voters and Plaid Cymru voters. The party most likely to benefit is Labour (possible gains in Arfon and Vale of Glamorgan).
Let us recall which idiots thought of this idea.
Ah, yes, it was the ex-TIGgers. Heidi Allen and Co have been in charge.
The launch, hubris & demise of the TIGgers should be enough to persuade anyone that Heidi & Chuka & Co are telegenic faces, but have no real idea of practical politics.
On the contrary, they are the face of moderation, and perhaps conservatism in its real sense. It is people with extremely naïve utopian views on a revolutionary idea called Brexit such as yourself, who believe that it will bring benefits, when it is really just about small minded nationalism, that are the ones that have no idea about practicality and pragmatism. Time will prove my point.
I personally don't like pacts as it reduces voter choice. All pacts are inefficient, as 100 per cent of the vote never transfers.
An efficient pact needs two parties that are reasonably close. I can imagine pacts between the Tory Party and The Brexit party being reasonably efficient (~60 per cent) or even LibDems and the moderate wing of Labour (~60 per cent).
The LibDems and Plaid Cymru have little in common, and differ very fundamentally on the future of Wales. My guess is the efficiency of transfers is low.
However, it could easily be negative if in the absence of Plaid Cymru, a PC voter choses the Tories or Labour; or a LibDem voter choses moderate Labour.
The Plaid Cymru farming vote is often quite right-wing (Montgomeryshire). The Plaid Cymru urban vote is often quite left-wing (Cardiff Central).
Quote: The Plaid Cymru farming vote is often quite right-wing (Montgomeryshire). The Plaid Cymru urban vote is often quite left-wing (Cardiff Central).Unquote
Isn't that to be expected from a Nationalist party?
Asking from rural-ish Mid- Essex. Although we're promised new estates ...... one being built now..... which will increase our population by at least 30%, many of them commuters.
It has never struck me until this morning that regular posters on PB are (it seems to me) overwhelmingly urbanites, living in large towns and cities. Few of you seem to write from the perspective of living in a rural community. I also suspect the majority of you live in the south-east of England. Accordingly your thinking about how voters think or vote are "coloured" by the communities within which you live. No doubt I will be greeted with howls of protest but it would be an interesting exercise for all regular PBers to disclose in which constituency they live and vote. You all know I live in the most northerly mainland constituency Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross which is larger than the entire Home Counties I think.
The London suburbs but with deep roots in Hampshire and the West Country
Godalming in SW Surrey. Smallish town with rural hinterland.
My late Mother was a Tory Remainer and thought Nigel Farage was "a ghastly man"
She would not have voted for anything that had the whiff of Farage.
I am a Tory Brexiteer and think Farage a ghastly man.
But he is yesterday's ghastly man. He has been found out. He had no interest in Brexit - just in keeping his milch-cow soap box going. With the UK out of the EU, he really is nothing.
Far be it from me to defend the man, but in fairness he did campaign, including spending his own money and, AIUI putting his marriage under considerable ........ too great ..... a strain for quite a while before people began to take him seriously. I believe too, that he could have made more money on the Metal Exchange if he hadn't turned away into politics. I expect to see him as UK Ambassador to the US after Christmas, appointed by a triumphant, and triumphing, Boris.
Having said that, yes, he is a ghastly man. I fear that public life in our country is going to get worse before it gets better.
If Farage gets anything, let alone US Ambassadorship, out of standing down his candidates - then surely that is corruption.
Which is BAU for the Tories, you can bet your shirt he is on a promise.
He'll be HMG's nomination for EU Commissioner, but the quid pro quo is that he'll have to identify as a woman to meet Von Der Leyen's gender balance rule.
Writing as a liberal Conservative myself, Farage's move doesn't make the slightest difference. There is no Con deal with the Brexit Party - Farage has unilaterally capitulated. His decision doesn't affect Tory policy or actions so I don't see why it should influence my thinking.
Of much more relevance is the failure to publish the report on Russian involvement / influence.
Which, as I pointed out yesterday, has already been leaked.
The loyalists on here have already discounted the leak as containing nothing of consequence, but none of them answered the obvious question of "If it is so unimportant, why fail to publish it?"
It has been leaked. It is really not important - there is no smoking gun.
Why somebody thought it worth being prosecuted for breaching the Official Secrets Act by leaking it is more of a mystery.
Has the full report been leaked? All I have seen is a brief report in the Times online which frankly could have been guessed at.
Also, if the report is that innocuous why was it subject to the Official Secrets Act, and why not officially published by the government?
Process
It was sent to Downing Street Thursday Oct 17. They would have needed to complete their review and sign off by Friday Nov 8.
Had Boris gone for a No Deal agreement with Farage then more Conservative Remainers in the Home Counties might have gone LD. However as Boris has got a Deal with the EU I expect as the chart shows most Tory Remainers will stick with the Tories out of fear of Corbyn and the fact the Brexit Party is standing down in Tory seats should help the Tories counteract any leakage to the LDs
Casino_Royale said: "Boris is liberal on immigration (more so than May), doesn't favour No Deal, was one of the first to support gay marriage and the Conservative manifesto will promise further action on climate change. Foreign aid may be reviewed but I doubt substantially changed."
I think that`s about right. A Cameron conservative. The demonization of BOJO is largely, but not entirely, unfair.
His personal morality is questionable, his dishonesty is plain and well documented but his politics have always been centre right and socially liberal. It’s pretty silly to claim anything else.
The divergence is between those who believe those were his politics because it suited his political advancement and those who believe those are his own political beliefs.
Neither view is silly, one is just more trusting than the other.
Casino_Royale said: "Boris is liberal on immigration (more so than May), doesn't favour No Deal, was one of the first to support gay marriage and the Conservative manifesto will promise further action on climate change. Foreign aid may be reviewed but I doubt substantially changed."
I think that`s about right. A Cameron conservative. The demonization of BOJO is largely, but not entirely, unfair.
His personal morality is questionable, his dishonesty is plain and well documented but his politics have always been centre right and socially liberal. It’s pretty silly to claim anything else.
The divergence is between those who believe those were his politics because it suited his political advancement and those who believe those are his own political beliefs.
Neither view is silly, one is just more trusting than the other.
HELP PLEASE! Can the spreadbetting gurus please advise why there seems to be a big difference between SPIN Con seats and Con majority? To buy seats is 343 which is a majority of 36 and a max theoretical loss of 343? To buy majority is 27 with a max loss of 27. I get that you lose a bit more on 316 to 325 but am I missing something else? Also, anything above 343 you are making double on the majority compared to single on the seats? Thanks for any replies!
343 is a majority of 46 when you subtract speakers and sinn fein
It has never struck me until this morning that regular posters on PB are (it seems to me) overwhelmingly urbanites, living in large towns and cities. Few of you seem to write from the perspective of living in a rural community. I also suspect the majority of you live in the south-east of England. Accordingly your thinking about how voters think or vote are "coloured" by the communities within which you live. No doubt I will be greeted with howls of protest but it would be an interesting exercise for all regular PBers to disclose in which constituency they live and vote. You all know I live in the most northerly mainland constituency Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross which is larger than the entire Home Counties I think.
The London suburbs but with deep roots in Hampshire and the West Country
Godalming in SW Surrey. Smallish town with rural hinterland.
BristolW during the week, North Cornwall at the weekend. You can guess which one I vote in.
But voters don't choose with full information under PR.
Under FPTP parties compromise before the vote and voters can choose with full information.
Under PR first people vote and then parties make shady backroom deals and compromise but by then it's too late the voters have already voted.
We got a taste of that with the Coalition and Tuition Fees. After the voters have voted just pretend like you never said anything about fees.
Under PR voters get a proportion of what they voted for and there are few wasted votes. The Lib Dems didn't win in 2010 so had to make the best of the Tories policy on tuition fees (actually they could and should have stuck to their policy, but for some reason thought that other things were more important).
No they don't get what they voted for as nobody gets a majority so what they voted for isn't what happens, the post voting dodgy backroom deal is what they get instead. Voters are circumvented.
HELP PLEASE! Can the spreadbetting gurus please advise why there seems to be a big difference between SPIN Con seats and Con majority? To buy seats is 343 which is a majority of 36 and a max theoretical loss of 343? To buy majority is 27 with a max loss of 27. I get that you lose a bit more on 316 to 325 but am I missing something else? Also, anything above 343 you are making double on the majority compared to single on the seats? Thanks for any replies!
343 is a majority of 46 when you subtract speakers and sinn fein
To win the "majority" payout with bookies the party needs to hit 326 MPs.
BUT unlike the Brexit Party retreat which seems rather one-sided as deals go, the Lib Dem pact with a party who specifically wants to split off Wales from the UK is repugnant to me.
Simplistic I'm sure but I think it's a real turn off.
The remarkable thing about the LibDem/Plaid Cymru Alliance is that it is a real turn-off to both potential LibDem voters and Plaid Cymru voters. The party most likely to benefit is Labour (possible gains in Arfon and Vale of Glamorgan).
Let us recall which idiots thought of this idea.
Ah, yes, it was the ex-TIGgers. Heidi Allen and Co have been in charge.
The launch, hubris & demise of the TIGgers should be enough to persuade anyone that Heidi & Chuka & Co are telegenic faces, but have no real idea of practical politics.
On the contrary, they are the face of moderation, and perhaps conservatism in its real sense. It is people with extremely naïve utopian views on a revolutionary idea called Brexit such as yourself, who believe that it will bring benefits, when it is really just about small minded nationalism, that are the ones that have no idea about practicality and pragmatism. Time will prove my point.
I personally don't like pacts as it reduces voter choice. All pacts are inefficient, as 100 per cent of the vote never transfers.
An efficient pact needs two parties that are reasonably close. I can imagine pacts between the Tory Party and The Brexit party being reasonably efficient (~60 per cent) or even LibDems and the moderate wing of Labour (~60 per cent).
The LibDems and Plaid Cymru have little in common, and differ very fundamentally on the future of Wales. My guess is the efficiency of transfers is low.
However, it could easily be negative if in the absence of Plaid Cymru, a PC voter choses the Tories or Labour; or a LibDem voter choses moderate Labour.
The Plaid Cymru farming vote is often quite right-wing (Montgomeryshire). The Plaid Cymru urban vote is often quite left-wing (Cardiff Central).
Quote: The Plaid Cymru farming vote is often quite right-wing (Montgomeryshire). The Plaid Cymru urban vote is often quite left-wing (Cardiff Central).Unquote
Isn't that to be expected from a Nationalist party?
Of course. But, that is my point. If Plaid Cyrmu don't stand, I don't see why the LibDems get these votes.
And if other parties get these votes, the effect of the Pact on the LibDems is actually negative.
I really do thing the Pact was cooked up by people with little idea of how voters actually behave in elections.
Writing as a liberal Conservative myself, Farage's move doesn't make the slightest difference. There is no Con deal with the Brexit Party - Farage has unilaterally capitulated. His decision doesn't affect Tory policy or actions so I don't see why it should influence my thinking.
Of much more relevance is the failure to publish the report on Russian involvement / influence.
Which, as I pointed out yesterday, has already been leaked.
The loyalists on here have already discounted the leak as containing nothing of consequence, but none of them answered the obvious question of "If it is so unimportant, why fail to publish it?"
They had to complete all the review process by Nov 8.
Those take time.
It is perfect plausible that Downing Street moves slowly for political benefit but that is an allegation - the 3 week review process would be at the faster end (IIRC 2 weeks is the absolute minimum).
But why did someone leak a sensitive non public intelligence report before it has gone through the official process?
Boris: 3 weeks to review and release a report of material interest to an election is unreasonable. Not allowing a 115 page bill with multiple cross references to other legislation through parliament and enacted in 3 days is deliberate obstruction, even though the additional time is available.
There is no petard big enough to hoist him on this one.
The first is normal - government works slowly
The second was never going to happen - it was political posturing
It has never struck me until this morning that regular posters on PB are (it seems to me) overwhelmingly urbanites, living in large towns and cities. Few of you seem to write from the perspective of living in a rural community. I also suspect the majority of you live in the south-east of England. Accordingly your thinking about how voters think or vote are "coloured" by the communities within which you live. No doubt I will be greeted with howls of protest but it would be an interesting exercise for all regular PBers to disclose in which constituency they live and vote. You all know I live in the most northerly mainland constituency Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross which is larger than the entire Home Counties I think.
The London suburbs but with deep roots in Hampshire and the West Country
Godalming in SW Surrey. Smallish town with rural hinterland.
BristolW during the week, North Cornwall at the weekend. You can guess which one I vote in.
Actually, you don't get a choice.
You must vote at your main residence (which would appear to be BristolW on the information you have given) or you are breaking electoral law.
If the Conservatives win without a majority, what is the likelihood of them forming a coalition government with the Brexit Party? - Sophie Shipton, Romford
Correct answer - Almost nil.
BBC Answer
The government has ruled out forming an election pact with Brexit Party during the election campaign. But if the Conservatives fell short of a majority, and the Brexit Party won a handful of crucial seats - then it may choose to support the Conservatives on specific issues in order to get Brexit over the line. So a temporary alliance of convenience is probably more likely than a formal coalition government.
I mean it's technically correct but highly improbable and so misleading at the same time given FPTP.
If the Brexit Party wins a majority, could Nigel Farage take a seat in Parliament as the leader without standing for a seat? - Paul Ramsdale, London
However, a Brexit Party majority looks distinctly unlikely
Not with SPIN I'm afraid Big G! Thanks Pulpstar, so do you think they're just currently priced incorrectly? Also, 400 ups has disappeared. Was it you that recommended that one as well? Outskirts of Woking for me!
How the hell does Labour come up with an election strategy when it is firefighting the seat of a senior party figure, fourth in the betting for future Labour leader, with a 14,000 majority?
If Thornberry is at risk that suggests Labour is doing worse against the LDs than the headline polling suggests, meaning the likes of Hampstead and Hornsey and Wood Green could also be at risk, particularly with the Tories well behind in those seats no need for Remainers to tactically vote Labour
How the hell does Labour come up with an election strategy when it is firefighting the seat of a senior party figure, fourth in the betting for future Labour leader, with a 14,000 majority?
If Thornberry is at risk that suggests Labour is doing worse against the LDs than the headline polling suggests, meaning the likes of Hampstead and Hornsey and Wood Green could also be at risk, particularly with the Tories well behind in those seats no need for Remainers to tactically vote Labour
Even more reason for us to tactically vote Labour in the North.
It has never struck me until this morning that regular posters on PB are (it seems to me) overwhelmingly urbanites, living in large towns and cities. Few of you seem to write from the perspective of living in a rural community. I also suspect the majority of you live in the south-east of England. Accordingly your thinking about how voters think or vote are "coloured" by the communities within which you live. No doubt I will be greeted with howls of protest but it would be an interesting exercise for all regular PBers to disclose in which constituency they live and vote. You all know I live in the most northerly mainland constituency Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross which is larger than the entire Home Counties I think.
I live in a small village on the edge of Newcastle upon Tyne.
Perhaps for the next few days we should all state our place of residence next to our posts. It would be an interesting exercise, and improve our geographical knowledge.
PtP (Winchcombe, Gloucestershire)
Constituencies might be more useful. (Glasgow NE).
Not with SPIN I'm afraid Big G! Thanks Pulpstar, so do you think they're just currently priced incorrectly? Also, 400 ups has disappeared. Was it you that recommended that one as well? Outskirts of Woking for me!
I've bought £2 ANY Majority at 22 and £5 Tory 400 ups at 3. The markets simply look incorrectly better priced to me (Particularly ANY majority). Simply halve your stake compared to what you'd buy the Tories at - you're paying far less overround.
If the Conservatives win without a majority, what is the likelihood of them forming a coalition government with the Brexit Party? - Sophie Shipton, Romford
Correct answer - Almost nil.
BBC Answer
The government has ruled out forming an election pact with Brexit Party during the election campaign. But if the Conservatives fell short of a majority, and the Brexit Party won a handful of crucial seats - then it may choose to support the Conservatives on specific issues in order to get Brexit over the line. So a temporary alliance of convenience is probably more likely than a formal coalition government.
I mean it's technically correct but highly improbable and so misleading at the same time given FPTP.
Because they won't have any seats, you mean? I agree the question may be moot - though the answer is caveated - "*if* the BXP won a handful of crucial seats".
But I'd expect a lone Richard Tice (or whatever) to act vaguely in that way if he got in. Wouldn't you? In much the way Caroline Lucas usually votes leftward.
If the Conservatives win without a majority, what is the likelihood of them forming a coalition government with the Brexit Party? - Sophie Shipton, Romford
Correct answer - Almost nil.
BBC Answer
The government has ruled out forming an election pact with Brexit Party during the election campaign. But if the Conservatives fell short of a majority, and the Brexit Party won a handful of crucial seats - then it may choose to support the Conservatives on specific issues in order to get Brexit over the line. So a temporary alliance of convenience is probably more likely than a formal coalition government.
I mean it's technically correct but highly improbable and so misleading at the same time given FPTP.
If the Brexit Party wins a majority, could Nigel Farage take a seat in Parliament as the leader without standing for a seat? - Paul Ramsdale, London
However, a Brexit Party majority looks distinctly unlikely
Arf, understatement of the year.
Brexit Party would have to win virtually every seat they are now standing in!
That would be some exit poll!
Huw Edwards solemnly intones
"And our exit poll predicts
Labour 4 seats LibDems 0 seats SNP 0 seats PC 0 seats Conservatives 317 seats Brexit Party 328 seats........
How the hell does Labour come up with an election strategy when it is firefighting the seat of a senior party figure, fourth in the betting for future Labour leader, with a 14,000 majority?
If Thornberry is at risk that suggests Labour is doing worse against the LDs than the headline polling suggests, meaning the likes of Hampstead and Hornsey and Wood Green could also be at risk, particularly with the Tories well behind in those seats no need for Remainers to tactically vote Labour
Even more reason for us to tactically vote Labour in the North.
Of little help in Manchester, Liverpool etc where Labour will win big as usual, only relevant if you live in market or ex industrial towns like Barrow, Grimsby, Workington, Keighley etc the Tories hope to take from Labour
It has never struck me until this morning that regular posters on PB are (it seems to me) overwhelmingly urbanites, living in large towns and cities. Few of you seem to write from the perspective of living in a rural community. I also suspect the majority of you live in the south-east of England. Accordingly your thinking about how voters think or vote are "coloured" by the communities within which you live. No doubt I will be greeted with howls of protest but it would be an interesting exercise for all regular PBers to disclose in which constituency they live and vote. You all know I live in the most northerly mainland constituency Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross which is larger than the entire Home Counties I think.
I live in a small village on the edge of Newcastle upon Tyne.
Perhaps for the next few days we should all state our place of residence next to our posts. It would be an interesting exercise, and improve our geographical knowledge.
PtP (Winchcombe, Gloucestershire)
Constituencies might be more useful. (Glasgow NE).
The post triggering the suggestion was more about regional bias in the content of PB posts, so residence fits. Gets a bit cumbersome if you want constituencies too.
For the record however, mine is in Tewkesbury where there is little chance of removing the sitting tub of lard and ERG nutter, Laurence Robertson. It's frustrating because I am only five miles from Cheltenham which is a real marginal, but you know the way the boundary lines can work.
Edit: And come to think of it, only a few miles across the election boundary from The Cotswolds, which could be an interesting contest.
I disagree with anyone doing deals to stand down - you either win your argument with the electorate or y
As for Brexit the thing not Brexit the Party, I read HYUFD bleating on about trade deals and wonder how we will spin reality when it arrives. The bigger you are the better the deal. Making ourselves smaller than our current trade value in the EU means that we get a worse deal not a better one.
I'm sure that eventually we will manage to replace all of the free trade deals that enthusiasts for free trade demand we walk away from. And all of those deals will be on worse terms because we will be smaller and more insignificant a market than the EU. Thats reality. FTA rampers are either stupid, or know that the people they are selling to are stupid. Either way, its dishonest.
Voters 'outraged by these deals' need to support Proportional Representation to get rid of the need for them.
PR gets rid of shady deals and stitch-ups between parties? You're in for a nasty shock in the aftermath of the first election held under it, assuming we do switch.
One of the better arguments for FPTP is that it (usually) forces these deals to happen in advance of the poll, rather than after, thus increasing transparency. Brexit has mucked some of this up on both sides of the political divide.
Within any system politicians will do deals and change their policies from what they originally promised (cf. pick any recent UK political year you choose). The argument here is that forcing (or denying) voters' choices about how they are represented would be unnecessary if we had a voting system that actually represented people properly and more fairly.
But voters don't choose with full information under PR.
Under FPTP parties compromise before the vote and voters can choose with full information.
Under PR first people vote and then parties make shady backroom deals and compromise but by then it's too late the voters have already voted.
We got a taste of that with the Coalition and Tuition Fees. After the voters have voted just pretend like you never said anything about fees.
If that was a PR election, it passed me by.
You could equally have chosen to mention John Major's "no increase in VAT", Blair's commitment to PR, Labour's promise not to introduce top up fees and then not to increase top up fees, etc. Broken promises and changed agendas have nothing to do with PR.
It has never struck me until this morning that regular posters on PB are (it seems to me) overwhelmingly urbanites, living in large towns and cities. Few of you seem to write from the perspective of living in a rural community. I also suspect the majority of you live in the south-east of England. Accordingly your thinking about how voters think or vote are "coloured" by the communities within which you live. No doubt I will be greeted with howls of protest but it would be an interesting exercise for all regular PBers to disclose in which constituency they live and vote. You all know I live in the most northerly mainland constituency Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross which is larger than the entire Home Counties I think.
The London suburbs but with deep roots in Hampshire and the West Country
Godalming in SW Surrey. Smallish town with rural hinterland.
Wolverhampton SW. Outside of London, one of only 3 Lab gains from the Tories in 2015. A leave seat in a strong leave city. Nowadays the city defies the stereotypes arising from its association with Powell. e.g. Was last week part of the crowd at the Molineux which spent a fair bit of the time chanting "you racist bastards" at the Slovan Bratislava ultras.
If the Conservatives win without a majority, what is the likelihood of them forming a coalition government with the Brexit Party? - Sophie Shipton, Romford
Correct answer - Almost nil.
BBC Answer
The government has ruled out forming an election pact with Brexit Party during the election campaign. But if the Conservatives fell short of a majority, and the Brexit Party won a handful of crucial seats - then it may choose to support the Conservatives on specific issues in order to get Brexit over the line. So a temporary alliance of convenience is probably more likely than a formal coalition government.
I mean it's technically correct but highly improbable and so misleading at the same time given FPTP.
Because they won't have any seats, you mean? I agree the question may be moot - though the answer is caveated - "*if* the BXP won a handful of crucial seats".
But I'd expect a lone Richard Tice (or whatever) to act vaguely in that way if he got in. Wouldn't you? In much the way Caroline Lucas usually votes leftward.
If they have a “handful” of seats their value in a coalition is marginal so they would just be ignored.
My rule of thumb is less than 20 seats you don’t get much
WhatsApp messages sent to Hindu voters across the UK by Hindu organisations telling them not to vote Labour and to vote Conservative instead after a Labour conference motion was passed criticising Indian actions in Kashmir. Could be key in marginal seats with high Hindu populations like Brentford and Isleworth and Enfield Southgate.
The boorish aggression combined with sycophancy is the signature mark of these creatures.
Genuine question - are you criticising Alastair Campbell, Andy Wigmore or both?
Since Campbell's tweet barely registers on the boorish aggression scale and displays no sycophancy whatsoever, I'll let you use your own smarts to work it out.
I think many of us are open with a certain level of identifiable information on here at times. I'm nobody in particular compared with some of the high flyers on here, but someone who knew me could probably pinpoint me and all this info is scattered about my posts already.
GE Constituencies: current Huddersfield (6th GE here, two near octogenarian main party candidates and assorted others to choose from this time), previous Fife NE (2 GEs) Originally from: Stalybridge & Hyde
That's a fairly heavy metropolitan town, rather than city, background.
If the Conservatives win without a majority, what is the likelihood of them forming a coalition government with the Brexit Party? - Sophie Shipton, Romford
Correct answer - Almost nil.
BBC Answer
The government has ruled out forming an election pact with Brexit Party during the election campaign. But if the Conservatives fell short of a majority, and the Brexit Party won a handful of crucial seats - then it may choose to support the Conservatives on specific issues in order to get Brexit over the line. So a temporary alliance of convenience is probably more likely than a formal coalition government.
I mean it's technically correct but highly improbable and so misleading at the same time given FPTP.
Because they won't have any seats, you mean? I agree the question may be moot - though the answer is caveated - "*if* the BXP won a handful of crucial seats".
But I'd expect a lone Richard Tice (or whatever) to act vaguely in that way if he got in. Wouldn't you? In much the way Caroline Lucas usually votes leftward.
If they have a “handful” of seats their value in a coalition is marginal so they would just be ignored.
My rule of thumb is less than 20 seats you don’t get much
The drumbashers have 10 and they got 2bn quid of our money out of May before Boris flipped them over and went in dry.
If the Conservatives win without a majority, what is the likelihood of them forming a coalition government with the Brexit Party? - Sophie Shipton, Romford
Correct answer - Almost nil.
BBC Answer
The government has ruled out forming an election pact with Brexit Party during the election campaign. But if the Conservatives fell short of a majority, and the Brexit Party won a handful of crucial seats - then it may choose to support the Conservatives on specific issues in order to get Brexit over the line. So a temporary alliance of convenience is probably more likely than a formal coalition government.
I mean it's technically correct but highly improbable and so misleading at the same time given FPTP.
If the Brexit Party wins a majority, could Nigel Farage take a seat in Parliament as the leader without standing for a seat? - Paul Ramsdale, London
However, a Brexit Party majority looks distinctly unlikely
Arf, understatement of the year.
Brexit Party would have to win virtually every seat they are now standing in!
That would be some exit poll!
Huw Edwards solemnly intones
"And our exit poll predicts
Labour 4 seats LibDems 0 seats SNP 0 seats PC 0 seats Conservatives 317 seats Brexit Party 328 seats........
Bootle, Knowsley, Liverpool Riverside, Liverpool Wavertree would be the last Labour 4.
A reminder: the the accusation of Jews having split loyalties is rightly included in the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance (IHRA) definition of antisemitism. This is exactly the same thing from a Conservative candidate with respect to Muslims.
The boorish aggression combined with sycophancy is the signature mark of these creatures.
Genuine question - are you criticising Alastair Campbell, Andy Wigmore or both?
Since Campbell's tweet barely registers on the boorish aggression scale and displays no sycophancy whatsoever, I'll let you use your own smarts to work it out.
In this case absolutely. But more generally a combination of boorishness and sycophancy seems to be an excellent description of Campbell
If the Conservatives win without a majority, what is the likelihood of them forming a coalition government with the Brexit Party? - Sophie Shipton, Romford
Correct answer - Almost nil.
BBC Answer
The government has ruled out forming an election pact with Brexit Party during the election campaign. But if the Conservatives fell short of a majority, and the Brexit Party won a handful of crucial seats - then it may choose to support the Conservatives on specific issues in order to get Brexit over the line. So a temporary alliance of convenience is probably more likely than a formal coalition government.
I mean it's technically correct but highly improbable and so misleading at the same time given FPTP.
Because they won't have any seats, you mean? I agree the question may be moot - though the answer is caveated - "*if* the BXP won a handful of crucial seats".
But I'd expect a lone Richard Tice (or whatever) to act vaguely in that way if he got in. Wouldn't you? In much the way Caroline Lucas usually votes leftward.
If they have a “handful” of seats their value in a coalition is marginal so they would just be ignored.
My rule of thumb is less than 20 seats you don’t get much
The drumbashers have 10 and they got 2bn quid of our money out of May before Boris flipped them over and went in dry.
In fact they got nowt as it was an addition to Stormont’s budget, but that doesn’t change the point you were making
But I don’t think mere cash is meaningful in this context - it’s not seats in cabinet or ministerial roles. That’s what a “coalition” means
The boorish aggression combined with sycophancy is the signature mark of these creatures.
Genuine question - are you criticising Alastair Campbell, Andy Wigmore or both?
Since Campbell's tweet barely registers on the boorish aggression scale and displays no sycophancy whatsoever, I'll let you use your own smarts to work it out.
In this case absolutely. But more generally a combination of boorishness and sycophancy seems to be an excellent description of Campbell
Except Campbell is an intelligent man who has arguably made bad moral choices, Wigmore is a stupid man who on all available evidence would barely understand the meaning of the word moral.
Had Boris gone for a No Deal agreement with Farage then more Conservative Remainers in the Home Counties might have gone LD. However as Boris has got a Deal with the EU I expect as the chart shows most Tory Remainers will stick with the Tories out of fear of Corbyn and the fact the Brexit Party is standing down in Tory seats should help the Tories counteract any leakage to the LDs
So far as Scotland is concerned, Brexit Party stand-down will benefit Tories for sure, although I think their vote would have been low (but then we could be seeing a lot of very close results). Brexit Party voters up here would have been mainly English-born or fishermen and very unlikely to turn to any of the other parties and certainly not SNP. Very much doubt there will be a haemorrhage of Tory voters to LibDems as a result.
The boorish aggression combined with sycophancy is the signature mark of these creatures.
Genuine question - are you criticising Alastair Campbell, Andy Wigmore or both?
Since Campbell's tweet barely registers on the boorish aggression scale and displays no sycophancy whatsoever, I'll let you use your own smarts to work it out.
In this case absolutely. But more generally a combination of boorishness and sycophancy seems to be an excellent description of Campbell
Except Campbell is an intelligent man who has arguably made bad moral choices, Wigmore is a stupid man who on all available evidence would barely understand the meaning of the word moral.
I vaguely know the name, but apart from that Wigmore hasn’t registered for me so do t really have a view 😊
If the Conservatives win without a majority, what is the likelihood of them forming a coalition government with the Brexit Party? - Sophie Shipton, Romford
Correct answer - Almost nil.
BBC Answer
The government has ruled out forming an election pact with Brexit Party during the election campaign. But if the Conservatives fell short of a majority, and the Brexit Party won a handful of crucial seats - then it may choose to support the Conservatives on specific issues in order to get Brexit over the line. So a temporary alliance of convenience is probably more likely than a formal coalition government.
I mean it's technically correct but highly improbable and so misleading at the same time given FPTP.
Because they won't have any seats, you mean? I agree the question may be moot - though the answer is caveated - "*if* the BXP won a handful of crucial seats".
But I'd expect a lone Richard Tice (or whatever) to act vaguely in that way if he got in. Wouldn't you? In much the way Caroline Lucas usually votes leftward.
If they have a “handful” of seats their value in a coalition is marginal so they would just be ignored.
My rule of thumb is less than 20 seats you don’t get much
The drumbashers have 10 and they got 2bn quid of our money out of May before Boris flipped them over and went in dry.
A better rule of thumb would include a comparison with the deficit from an overall majority position!
If Party Z is two short of a majority and (generally sympathetic, cohesive) Party X has 8 seats, I'd say they're rather less marginal.
So that means we are starting to catch up with them after two years of sluggish growth...
So this is a good thing, apparently?
Selective comparisons of statistics is a favoured trick of conmen and spin doctors. It has been 3 years since the referendum result. Presumably that doesn't show so favourably
Had Boris gone for a No Deal agreement with Farage then more Conservative Remainers in the Home Counties might have gone LD. However as Boris has got a Deal with the EU I expect as the chart shows most Tory Remainers will stick with the Tories out of fear of Corbyn and the fact the Brexit Party is standing down in Tory seats should help the Tories counteract any leakage to the LDs
So far as Scotland is concerned, Brexit Party stand-down will benefit Tories for sure, although I think their vote would have been low (but then we could be seeing a lot of very close results). Brexit Party voters up here would have been mainly English-born or fishermen and very unlikely to turn to any of the other parties and certainly not SNP. Very much doubt there will be a haemorrhage of Tory voters to LibDems as a result.
Why don't you think you'll see Tory->Lib Dem switching? That seems to be happening nationally, so why not in Scotland?
It has never struck me until this morning that regular posters on PB are (it seems to me) overwhelmingly urbanites, living in large towns and cities. Few of you seem to write from the perspective of living in a rural community. I also suspect the majority of you live in the south-east of England. Accordingly your thinking about how voters think or vote are "coloured" by the communities within which you live. No doubt I will be greeted with howls of protest but it would be an interesting exercise for all regular PBers to disclose in which constituency they live and vote. You all know I live in the most northerly mainland constituency Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross which is larger than the entire Home Counties I think.
I was actually thinking this morning how few people in the countryside I know. Indeed, how relatively few people I know who live in urban areas outside the top ten or so biggest in the UK. And therefore, almost everyone I know - or at least everyone I know who talks about politics - is left wing. I have a vague theory that we tend to know fewer people who disagree with us politically than was the case thirty or forty years ago, though I haven't thought how I'd go about testing this.
I live in Wythenshawe and Sale East - safe Labour, MP who could be described as sensible (aside from the fact that if elected he would vote for Jeremy Corbyn to be Prime Minister!). It's a fascinating constituency - two thirds Wythenshawe (WWC and largely ex-council); one thirds Sale East (suburban, privately owned, middle Class) - in the 90s, Labour Wythenshawe outvoted Conservative Sale East; since then Sale East has swung increasingly to the left (same demographics, different attitude) while Wythenshawe has possibly swung slightly to the right. Still safe Labour overall though!
Prior to living in WSE I was in Browtowe during Nick Palmer's heyday, though I'm originally from Greater Manchester.
A reminder: the the accusation of Jews having split loyalties is rightly included in the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance (IHRA) definition of antisemitism. This is exactly the same thing from a Conservative candidate with respect to Muslims.
Writing in 2002
“In a passage about Muslim leaders warning the Iraq war could cause social unrest, he wrote: “Whatever the merits or demerits of war on Iraq, it is hardly a national strength to have a large minority with such divided loyalties during war.” “
I’m sure the victims and families of 7/7, London Bridge, the Ariana Grande concert, along with Lee Rigby, wish that no British Muslims were driven to terrorism by such foreign policy.
He would have no idea where their possum would strike next.....
Yes, because people who super care about defence were wavering on whether to support Corbyn or not, and peaceniks who like anti interventionalist politics will have their minds changed by a general and that well known left wing government in... Australia...
I mean, I don't see this stuff moving the needle. People have priced in Corbyn as a pacifist (indeed, for many his appeal goes way back to a very clear repudiation of Iraq and interventionalist policy).
BUT unlike the Brexit Party retreat which seems rather one-sided as deals go, the Lib Dem pact with a party who specifically wants to split off Wales from the UK is repugnant to me.
Simplistic I'm sure but I think it's a real turn off.
The remarkable thing about the LibDem/Plaid Cymru Alliance is that it is a real turn-off to both potential LibDem voters and Plaid Cymru voters. The party most likely to benefit is Labour (possible gains in Arfon and Vale of Glamorgan).
Let us recall which idiots thought of this idea.
Ah, yes, it was the ex-TIGgers. Heidi Allen and Co have been in charge.
The launch, hubris & demise of the TIGgers should be enough to persuade anyone that Heidi & Chuka & Co are telegenic faces, but have no real idea of practical politics.
On the contrary, they are the face of moderation, and perhaps conservatism in its real sense. It is people with extremely naïve utopian views on a revolutionary idea called Brexit such as yourself, who believe that it will bring benefits, when it is really just about small minded nationalism, that are the ones that have no idea about practicality and pragmatism. Time will prove my point.
I personally don't like pacts as it reduces voter choice. All pacts are inefficient, as 100 per cent of the vote never transfers.
An efficient pact needs two parties that are reasonably close. I can imagine pacts between the Tory Party and The Brexit party being reasonably efficient (~60 per cent) or even LibDems and the moderate wing of Labour (~60 per cent).
The LibDems and Plaid Cymru have little in common, and differ very fundamentally on the future of Wales. My guess is the efficiency of transfers is low.
However, it could easily be negative if in the absence of Plaid Cymru, a PC voter choses the Tories or Labour; or a LibDem voter choses moderate Labour.
The Plaid Cymru farming vote is often quite right-wing (Montgomeryshire). The Plaid Cymru urban vote is often quite left-wing (Cardiff Central).
Quote: The Plaid Cymru farming vote is often quite right-wing (Montgomeryshire). The Plaid Cymru urban vote is often quite left-wing (Cardiff Central).Unquote
Isn't that to be expected from a Nationalist party?
Of course. But, that is my point. If Plaid Cyrmu don't stand, I don't see why the LibDems get these votes.
And if other parties get these votes, the effect of the Pact on the LibDems is actually negative.
I really do thing the Pact was cooked up by people with little idea of how voters actually behave in elections.
Thanks again Pulpstar, I was on at those prices too (for slightly more than you ;-)), just surprised they haven't moved further in line with the seat markets. Any idea why they've removed the 400 ups? Any idea when you'd cash out?!
Had Boris gone for a No Deal agreement with Farage then more Conservative Remainers in the Home Counties might have gone LD. However as Boris has got a Deal with the EU I expect as the chart shows most Tory Remainers will stick with the Tories out of fear of Corbyn and the fact the Brexit Party is standing down in Tory seats should help the Tories counteract any leakage to the LDs
So far as Scotland is concerned, Brexit Party stand-down will benefit Tories for sure, although I think their vote would have been low (but then we could be seeing a lot of very close results). Brexit Party voters up here would have been mainly English-born or fishermen and very unlikely to turn to any of the other parties and certainly not SNP. Very much doubt there will be a haemorrhage of Tory voters to LibDems as a result.
Why don't you think you'll see Tory->Lib Dem switching? That seems to be happening nationally, so why not in Scotland?
Because the Libdems will sell out the Union for a sniff of power with Corbyn and the SNP.
Comments
Mine (Hampstead and Kilburn) is going to be an interesting three way fight, we could definitely come through the middle. The local MP isn't that popular and loads of middle class Labour voters around where I live are actively supporting the Lib Dems with window posters, bollocks to brexit etc...
PtP (Winchcombe, Gloucestershire)
I'm rather taken with Foxy's trading bet tip on Leicester btw....
It was sent to Downing Street on Oct 17
They had to complete all the review process by Nov 8.
Those take time.
It is perfect plausible that Downing Street moves slowly for political benefit but that is an allegation - the 3 week review process would be at the faster end (IIRC 2 weeks is the absolute minimum).
But why did someone leak a sensitive non public intelligence report before it has gone through the official process?
Of course, some do it more shamelessly than others.......
One benefits the SNP. The other doesn’t.
An efficient pact needs two parties that are reasonably close. I can imagine pacts between the Tory Party and The Brexit party being reasonably efficient (~60 per cent) or even LibDems and the moderate wing of Labour (~60 per cent).
The LibDems and Plaid Cymru have little in common, and differ very fundamentally on the future of Wales. My guess is the efficiency of transfers is low.
However, it could easily be negative if in the absence of Plaid Cymru, a PC voter choses the Tories or Labour; or a LibDem voter choses moderate Labour.
The Plaid Cymru farming vote is often quite right-wing (Montgomeryshire). The Plaid Cymru urban vote is often quite left-wing (Cardiff Central).
Some of the wilder expectations of (successful) new parties and huge splits to them have failed to come true, but Brexit could still redraw the dividing lines between the existing ones .
Thank you Foxy and Foxes.
3 weeks to review and release a report of material interest to an election is unreasonable.
Not allowing a 115 page bill with multiple cross references to other legislation through parliament and enacted in 3 days is deliberate obstruction, even though the additional time is available.
There is no petard big enough to hoist him on this one.
That's another dozen votes for the Peril.
https://www.markpack.org.uk/
Can the spreadbetting gurus please advise why there seems to be a big difference between SPIN Con seats and Con majority? To buy seats is 343 which is a majority of 36 and a max theoretical loss of 343? To buy majority is 27 with a max loss of 27. I get that you lose a bit more on 316 to 325 but am I missing something else? Also, anything above 343 you are making double on the majority compared to single on the seats?
Thanks for any replies!
They didn't "make the best" they actively.decided to fuck over the people who voted for them.
Pulpstar - Oldcotes, Bassetlaw.
Isn't that to be expected from a Nationalist party?
Asking from rural-ish Mid- Essex. Although we're promised new estates ...... one being built now..... which will increase our population by at least 30%, many of them commuters.
It was sent to Downing Street Thursday Oct 17. They would have needed to complete their review and sign off by Friday Nov 8.
https://twitter.com/andywigmore/status/1193961577088737281?s=20
The boorish aggression combined with sycophancy is the signature mark of these creatures.
It will be interesting to see -- after the election with control samples -- whether the LibDems have even benefitted from all these pacts.
Neither view is silly, one is just more trusting than the other.
And if other parties get these votes, the effect of the Pact on the LibDems is actually negative.
I really do thing the Pact was cooked up by people with little idea of how voters actually behave in elections.
The second was never going to happen - it was political posturing
You must vote at your main residence (which would appear to be BristolW on the information you have given) or you are breaking electoral law.
If the Conservatives win without a majority, what is the likelihood of them forming a coalition government with the Brexit Party? - Sophie Shipton, Romford
Correct answer - Almost nil.
BBC Answer
The government has ruled out forming an election pact with Brexit Party during the election campaign. But if the Conservatives fell short of a majority, and the Brexit Party won a handful of crucial seats - then it may choose to support the Conservatives on specific issues in order to get Brexit over the line.
So a temporary alliance of convenience is probably more likely than a formal coalition government.
I mean it's technically correct but highly improbable and so misleading at the same time given FPTP.
If the Brexit Party wins a majority, could Nigel Farage take a seat in Parliament as the leader without standing for a seat? - Paul Ramsdale, London
However, a Brexit Party majority looks distinctly unlikely
Arf, understatement of the year.
Thanks Pulpstar, so do you think they're just currently priced incorrectly? Also, 400 ups has disappeared. Was it you that recommended that one as well?
Outskirts of Woking for me!
incorrectlybetter priced to me (Particularly ANY majority). Simply halve your stake compared to what you'd buy the Tories at - you're paying far less overround.Con 6/4
Ashfield Independents drifted to 7/4
Lab 4/1
But I'd expect a lone Richard Tice (or whatever) to act vaguely in that way if he got in. Wouldn't you? In much the way Caroline Lucas usually votes leftward.
That would be some exit poll!
Huw Edwards solemnly intones
"And our exit poll predicts
Labour 4 seats
LibDems 0 seats
SNP 0 seats
PC 0 seats
Conservatives 317 seats
Brexit Party 328 seats........
Kick him upstairs where he can be forgotten about.
For the record however, mine is in Tewkesbury where there is little chance of removing the sitting tub of lard and ERG nutter, Laurence Robertson. It's frustrating because I am only five miles from Cheltenham which is a real marginal, but you know the way the boundary lines can work.
Edit: And come to think of it, only a few miles across the election boundary from The Cotswolds, which could be an interesting contest.
You could equally have chosen to mention John Major's "no increase in VAT", Blair's commitment to PR, Labour's promise not to introduce top up fees and then not to increase top up fees, etc. Broken promises and changed agendas have nothing to do with PR.
My rule of thumb is less than 20 seats you don’t get much
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50382791
GE Constituencies: current Huddersfield (6th GE here, two near octogenarian main party candidates and assorted others to choose from this time), previous Fife NE (2 GEs)
Originally from: Stalybridge & Hyde
That's a fairly heavy metropolitan town, rather than city, background.
Are the DUP next.....
More Conservative islamophobia today, with a candidate saying that British Muslims have "divided loyalties"
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/11/tory-candidate-anthony-browne-faces-calls-quit-over-disgusting-racism
Anthony Browne is a former aide to Boris Johnson, and is candidate for South Cambridgeshire.
A reminder: the the accusation of Jews having split loyalties is rightly included in the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance (IHRA) definition of antisemitism. This is exactly the same thing from a Conservative candidate with respect to Muslims.
https://twitter.com/alanferrier/status/1194185340883537920?s=20
But I don’t think mere cash is meaningful in this context - it’s not seats in cabinet or ministerial roles. That’s what a “coalition” means
So this is a good thing, apparently?
https://mobile.twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1193959465336426499
https://order-order.com/2019/11/12/diplomat-australia-curb-intelligence-sharing-corbyn-led-uk/
He would have no idea where their possum would strike next.....
If Party Z is two short of a majority and (generally sympathetic, cohesive) Party X has 8 seats, I'd say they're rather less marginal.
I live in Wythenshawe and Sale East - safe Labour, MP who could be described as sensible (aside from the fact that if elected he would vote for Jeremy Corbyn to be Prime Minister!). It's a fascinating constituency - two thirds Wythenshawe (WWC and largely ex-council); one thirds Sale East (suburban, privately owned, middle Class) - in the 90s, Labour Wythenshawe outvoted Conservative Sale East; since then Sale East has swung increasingly to the left (same demographics, different attitude) while Wythenshawe has possibly swung slightly to the right. Still safe Labour overall though!
Prior to living in WSE I was in Browtowe during Nick Palmer's heyday, though I'm originally from Greater Manchester.
“In a passage about Muslim leaders warning the Iraq war could cause social unrest, he wrote: “Whatever the merits or demerits of war on Iraq, it is hardly a national strength to have a large minority with such divided loyalties during war.” “
I’m sure the victims and families of 7/7, London Bridge, the Ariana Grande concert, along with Lee Rigby, wish that no British Muslims were driven to terrorism by such foreign policy.
I mean, I don't see this stuff moving the needle. People have priced in Corbyn as a pacifist (indeed, for many his appeal goes way back to a very clear repudiation of Iraq and interventionalist policy).