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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The outstanding question: How will CON GE2017 Remainers view t
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The outstanding question: How will CON GE2017 Remainers view the deal with Farage?
One group of voters who seems to have been by-passed by current events are the 31% of GE2017 CON voters who backed Remain in the referendum. All the focus has been on leavers.
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With the disturbance of the spring
And creatures of the summer heat,
And snowdrops writhing under feet
And hollyhocks that aim too high
Red into grey and tumble down
Late roses filled with early snow?
Thunder rolled by the rolling stars
Simulates triumphal cars
Deployed in constellated wars
Scorpion fights against the sun
Until the Sun and Moon go down
Comets weep and Leonids fly
Hunt the heavens and the plains
Whirled in a vortex that shall bring
The world to that destructive fire
Which burns before the ice-cap reigns
T.S. Eliot
From 'The Four Quartets'
Good morning all
She would not have voted for anything that had the whiff of Farage.
I expect the pact to be abrogated and both sides will be at war against each other soon enough.
Thinking about it, Labour needs to put electoral reform in their manifesto if they want to further consolidate the centre left. It could work if they are serious about it, unlike Tony Blair.
Personally, I wish Trump would make Nigel an offer he could not refuse and take him off to the USA.
This former-Tory voter will either abstaining or voting LD. In my case voting LD will have much the same effect as my current MP's votes do not need to be counted - they just weigh them by the kilo
Lord Ashcroft says that 25% of remainers in 2016 voted Tory in 2017.
And the Tory voteshare was 42% in 2017.
And Mike has that 31% of Tory Remainers from 2017 are saying they are going elsewhere.
So assuming everything being equal and ignoring distribution, I make that .25 * .424 * .31 percent of the Electorate being Tory Remainers going elsewhere.
Or 3.3% of the voters in this case. 3.2% switching Tory -> LD. 0.1% switching Tory -> Lab.
Significant?
IMO that depends on distribution.
What does the poll show for Lab Leave voters going Tory?
But he is yesterday's ghastly man. He has been found out. He had no interest in Brexit - just in keeping his milch-cow soap box going. With the UK out of the EU, he really is nothing.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-essex-50383988
Lib Dem lancing the boil.
Oddly enough, Kevin McNamara had stood for LDs in Thurrock in 2017, and as candidate for Essex PCC. For some reason his past did not hurt him.
Well, not really. It's cold, rainy, and windy. Humbug to that.
I believe too, that he could have made more money on the Metal Exchange if he hadn't turned away into politics.
I expect to see him as UK Ambassador to the US after Christmas, appointed by a triumphant, and triumphing, Boris.
Having said that, yes, he is a ghastly man. I fear that public life in our country is going to get worse before it gets better.
As for Brexit the thing not Brexit the Party, I read HYUFD bleating on about trade deals and wonder how we will spin reality when it arrives. The bigger you are the better the deal. Making ourselves smaller than our current trade value in the EU means that we get a worse deal not a better one.
I'm sure that eventually we will manage to replace all of the free trade deals that enthusiasts for free trade demand we walk away from. And all of those deals will be on worse terms because we will be smaller and more insignificant a market than the EU. Thats reality. FTA rampers are either stupid, or know that the people they are selling to are stupid. Either way, its dishonest.
First tweet was Abi Wilks having a go at Sam Gymah. Cheers Mike. I was after approximate context.
To me the numbers look potentially significant in some seats.
https://twitter.com/cambslive/status/1194155366252236800?s=21
Because it's the closest you will
Get to love
Poor twisted child
So ugly, so ugly
Poor twisted child
Oh hug me, oh hug me
One November
Spawned a monster
In the shape of this child
Who later cried :
But Jesus made me, so
Jesus save me from
Pity, sympathy
And people discussing me
A frame of useless limbs
What can make good
All the bad that's been done ?
And if the lights were out
Could you even bear
To kiss her full on the mouth
(or anywhere?)
Oh, poor twisted child
So ugly, so ugly
Poor twisted child
Oh hug me, oh hug me
One November
Spawned a monster
In the shape of this child
Who must remain
A hostage to kindness
And the wheels underneath her
A hostage to kindness
And the wheels underneath her
A symbol…
S.P. Morrissey
TSE will be along shortly to suggest that rather than a road between the two, they should build a wall...
It would be interesting to know if @JosiasJessop agrees.
Vote Tory = Get Johnson and move on with Brexit
Vote Labour = Get Corbyn
Vote LibDem = Get Corbyn
Vote Green = Get Corbyn
Vote PC = Get Corbyn
Vote SNP = Get Corbyn
Vote Brexit = risk getting Corbyn by default.
As long as the Tories keep plugging away at this, Boris should get his working majority. Let's see who is standing where on Friday morning once nominations have closed. Incidentally any last minute retirees due?
Tories must be delighted that they had such a master tactician with a backbone of iron as a leader.
Next.
What we have now is the two largest parties, insisting that they are the only realistic alternatives for government, led by serial rebels who are happy to get rid of any MP who doesn’t toe the line, also insisting implausibly that they lead broad churches.
And each relying on fear or hatred of the other to corral their reluctant voters.
The UK's priorities will probably be on access for the services sector, particularly the City, and some other areas where we have particular strength, such as pharmaceuticals, satellite engineering. There's a whole bunch of things that other EU countries are bothered about, such as machine tools, say, which don't matter so much to us. So Canada could be able to get more of what it wants and we could be able to get more of what we want, at the same time, relative to the EU-Canada trade deal.
I don't say that it is likely, but it is possible.
Also interesting is that Man City have actually had the easier of the fixture lists so far in the league between Liverpool and Man City. While Liverpool have an insane December fixturewise that is congestion due to the cups there are no big league games until meeting Leicester after Christmas [which will be the start of the second half of the season].
Liverpool have played already all of the 'Big 6' and Leicester already, albeit many of them at home.
Man City have only had to face so far Spurs [at home, drew] and Liverpool away at Anfield. They're still yet to face Chelsea, Arsenal, Man Utd and Leicester.
What were Remain MPs thinking would happen? Straight revocation never looked on the cards and even trying to instigate a second referendum without any deal passed looked very difficult to achieve.
Mind you, Conservatives lining up to back the incumbent were bloody daft too.
When the Berlin wall fell, the Soviet Union split up and started moving towards a free(r) market economy and free(r) elections, did you see that as the ultimate triumph of communism?
Of course, that might be corrupt in itself.
That was no exception.
This a far better result for Boris.
Will Remainers never learn that "political capital" bites them on the arse?
It is No Deal at the end of Transition imo. BoZo has promised* no extension.
*though obviously his promises are worth nothing.
Thought not.
The Puddle by William Wordsworth
"I measured it from side to side
'Twas three feet long and two feet wide."
Harold Macmillan, 1945.
And of course, he did, so now instead of the scruffy Trot with the bad hairstyle people see Magic Grandpa looking like a retired stockbroker.
Wonder how alone he'll be. BBC East had a very discontented Brexit Party PPC on last night; he was all lined up to fight and I got the impression he didn't trust Boris.
All of those positions are at odds with the Conservatives.
I could obviously use my work one but it would probably get noticed by IT in about 4 seconds.
One of the better arguments for FPTP is that it (usually) forces these deals to happen in advance of the poll, rather than after, thus increasing transparency. Brexit has mucked some of this up on both sides of the political divide.
Leicester have some risk with no real back up for Vardy, but he is a tough wirey sod who has missed very little with injury in 8 years. We also have £80 million still to spend of the Maguire money in the Jan transfer season. Chelsea have to sit it out.
It is easy enough to clear out your social media without losing contacts. Many people do it.
Besides, you do not clear it out today and stand as a PPC tomorrow. Getting elected takes a long time, so once you decide to do it, clean up your profile and keep it clean in the time you spend getting through the PPC process.
Of all the trees that grow so fair,
Old England to adorn,
Greater are none beneath the Sun,
Than Oak, and Ash, and Thorn.
Sing Oak, and Ash, and Thorn, good sirs,
(All of a Midsummer morn!)
Surely we sing no little thing,
In Oak, and Ash, and Thorn!
Oak of the Clay lived many a day,
Or ever AEneas began.
Ash of the Loam was a lady at home,
When Brut was an outlaw man.
Thorn of the Down saw New Troy Town
(From which was London born);
Witness hereby the ancientry
Of Oak, and Ash, and Thorn!
Yew that is old in churchyard-mould,
He breedeth a mighty bow.
Alder for shoes do wise men choose,
And beech for cups also.
But when ye have killed, and your bowl is spilled,
And your shoes are clean outworn,
Back ye must speed for all that ye need,
To Oak, and Ash, and Thorn!
Ellum she hateth mankind, and waiteth
Till every gust be laid,
To drop a limb on the head of him
That anyway trusts her shade:
But whether a lad be sober or sad,
Or mellow with ale from the horn,
He will take no wrong when he lieth along
'Neath Oak, and Ash, and Thorn!
Oh, do not tell the Priest our plight,
Or he would call it a sin;
But - we have been out in the woods all night,
A-conjuring Summer in!
And we bring you news by word of mouth-
Good news for cattle and corn-
Now is the Sun come up from the South,
With Oak, and Ash, and Thorn!
Sing Oak, and Ash, and Thorn, good sirs
(All of a Midsummer morn):
England shall bide ti11 Judgment Tide,
By Oak, and Ash, and Thorn!
J.R. Kipling
https://www.nafta-sec-alena.org/Home/Texts-of-the-Agreement/North-American-Free-Trade-Agreement?mvid=1&secid=7684fdb8-1784-4b39-b068-1b9a13952814
What we saw was Farage retreating from the field in exchange for.....nothing.
If he was a senior Tory politician or in coalition with them I’d have grave doubts about voting for them
As far as we know he has stepped down in a bunch of seats for no return
So for voting purposes - unless something comes out before the election - there should be no impact. If terms of an unsavoury deal are released later that may affect the future
Labour's opposition to the Cambridge-Oxford expressway road scheme won't make the slightest difference because most people haven't heard of it, and of the remainers that have, none of them are going to vote Labour because of it, in fact half of them would probably be in favour of the scheme.
Isn’t it 25% of Remainers voted Tory if which 31% (ie 7.5% of Remainers) are considering their options
Hence 7.5% * 48
In the last round Canada was more than happy to open up the services discussion but didn't because the EU don't have much of a strategy, once we're into the transition period those are the conversations we will be having, but not just with Canada, with loads of countries who want favourable access to the UKs internal market for goods.