Thanks again Pulpstar, I was on at those prices too (for slightly more than you ;-)), just surprised they haven't moved further in line with the seat markets. Any idea why they've removed the 400 ups? Any idea when you'd cash out?!
Yes it's a small side hedge to my Labour Barnsley Central etc bets - I'm not planning to cash out.
The boorish aggression combined with sycophancy is the signature mark of these creatures.
Genuine question - are you criticising Alastair Campbell, Andy Wigmore or both?
Since Campbell's tweet barely registers on the boorish aggression scale and displays no sycophancy whatsoever, I'll let you use your own smarts to work it out.
In this case absolutely. But more generally a combination of boorishness and sycophancy seems to be an excellent description of Campbell
Except Campbell is an intelligent man who has arguably made bad moral choices, Wigmore is a stupid man who on all available evidence would barely understand the meaning of the word moral.
It makes one realise the cesspit that British politics has sunk into thanks to Brexit when there are people like Wigmore who are so repulsive they make Campbell look pleasant and reasonable.
Had Boris gone for a No Deal agreement with Farage then more Conservative Remainers in the Home Counties might have gone LD. However as Boris has got a Deal with the EU I expect as the chart shows most Tory Remainers will stick with the Tories out of fear of Corbyn and the fact the Brexit Party is standing down in Tory seats should help the Tories counteract any leakage to the LDs
So far as Scotland is concerned, Brexit Party stand-down will benefit Tories for sure, although I think their vote would have been low (but then we could be seeing a lot of very close results). Brexit Party voters up here would have been mainly English-born or fishermen and very unlikely to turn to any of the other parties and certainly not SNP. Very much doubt there will be a haemorrhage of Tory voters to LibDems as a result.
Why don't you think you'll see Tory->Lib Dem switching? That seems to be happening nationally, so why not in Scotland?
Because the Libdems will sell out the Union for a sniff of power with Corbyn and the SNP.
I'm sure the DUP might have a view on for what BJ would sell out the Union.
It has never struck me until this morning that regular posters on PB are (it seems to me) overwhelmingly urbanites, living in large towns and cities. Few of you seem to write from the perspective of living in a rural community. I also suspect the majority of you live in the south-east of England. Accordingly your thinking about how voters think or vote are "coloured" by the communities within which you live. No doubt I will be greeted with howls of protest but it would be an interesting exercise for all regular PBers to disclose in which constituency they live and vote. You all know I live in the most northerly mainland constituency Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross which is larger than the entire Home Counties I think.
I was actually thinking this morning how few people in the countryside I know. Indeed, how relatively few people I know who live in urban areas outside the top ten or so biggest in the UK. And therefore, almost everyone I know - or at least everyone I know who talks about politics - is left wing. I have a vague theory that we tend to know fewer people who disagree with us politically than was the case thirty or forty years ago, though I haven't thought how I'd go about testing this.
I live in Wythenshawe and Sale East - safe Labour, MP who could be described as sensible (aside from the fact that if elected he would vote for Jeremy Corbyn to be Prime Minister!). It's a fascinating constituency - two thirds Wythenshawe (WWC and largely ex-council); one thirds Sale East (suburban, privately owned, middle Class) - in the 90s, Labour Wythenshawe outvoted Conservative Sale East; since then Sale East has swung increasingly to the left (same demographics, different attitude) while Wythenshawe has possibly swung slightly to the right. Still safe Labour overall though!
Prior to living in WSE I was in Browtowe during Nick Palmer's heyday, though I'm originally from Greater Manchester.
I have spent most of my life in St Albans in the south, although the time I spent getting involved in politics was at University when I was in Newcastle Under Lyme in the midlands. So whilst I live in leafy suburbia, I remember years of door knocking in Newcastle and Stoke talking to voters there.
Was interesting and informative; often voters for the undesirable party (BNP or UKIP) were the ones most open to talking to us (Greens) just because we weren't those bastards with actual power. Did they like our policies once they heard them? No, not really. But they very rarely rude to us (unlike to local Labour or Conservative knockers) and often were grateful we'd talked to them.
West got his ship sunk, left a load of classified documents by a canal where he was doing fuck knows what and went on to be 1SL. I steal one tuk tuk and I'm completely fucked forever.
If one's over 45........There's a few pieces in the news lately about men having age-appropriate partners. And Ms Sturgeon's quite an attractive woman.
My constituency history Southampton Itchen, Norfolk South, Witham, Mid Norfolk, Norfolk North, Norwich South Voting history - Labour (I feel sick), Green, Conservative and Referendum Party have enjoyed my patronage, I am the original neverLibber
Had Boris gone for a No Deal agreement with Farage then more Conservative Remainers in the Home Counties might have gone LD. However as Boris has got a Deal with the EU I expect as the chart shows most Tory Remainers will stick with the Tories out of fear of Corbyn and the fact the Brexit Party is standing down in Tory seats should help the Tories counteract any leakage to the LDs
So far as Scotland is concerned, Brexit Party stand-down will benefit Tories for sure, although I think their vote would have been low (but then we could be seeing a lot of very close results). Brexit Party voters up here would have been mainly English-born or fishermen and very unlikely to turn to any of the other parties and certainly not SNP. Very much doubt there will be a haemorrhage of Tory voters to LibDems as a result.
Why don't you think you'll see Tory->Lib Dem switching? That seems to be happening nationally, so why not in Scotland?
Including the Welsh nationalists in their remain alliance will definitely hurt them with the unionist tactical vote campaign.
Writing as a liberal Conservative myself, Farage's move doesn't make the slightest difference. There is no Con deal with the Brexit Party - Farage has unilaterally capitulated. His decision doesn't affect Tory policy or actions so I don't see why it should influence my thinking.
Of much more relevance is the failure to publish the report on Russian involvement / influence.
Which, as I pointed out yesterday, has already been leaked.
The loyalists on here have already discounted the leak as containing nothing of consequence, but none of them answered the obvious question of "If it is so unimportant, why fail to publish it?"
They had to complete all the review process by Nov 8.
Those take time.
It is perfect plausible that Downing Street moves slowly for political benefit but that is an allegation - the 3 week review process would be at the faster end (IIRC 2 weeks is the absolute minimum).
But why did someone leak a sensitive non public intelligence report before it has gone through the official process?
Because the the official process had already been completed, but the release has been delayed for exclusively political reasons because the findings are quite serious for the Conservative party. The security services are very unhappy that the document has been kicked into the long grass.
Incidentally one of the most serious findings seems to be that Dominic Cummings does appear to have been granted full security clearance...
A reminder: the the accusation of Jews having split loyalties is rightly included in the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance (IHRA) definition of antisemitism. This is exactly the same thing from a Conservative candidate with respect to Muslims.
A reminder: the the accusation of Jews having split loyalties is rightly included in the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance (IHRA) definition of antisemitism. This is exactly the same thing from a Conservative candidate with respect to Muslims.
There's no future where the nation goes to war with Israel. There are multiple futures where we go to war with various Islamic nations that British Muslim people identify with closer than to the UK.
However, it's a distraction and we should dump him before the deadline.
If one's over 45........There's a few pieces in the news lately about men having age-appropriate partners. And Ms Sturgeon's quite an attractive woman.
A reminder: the the accusation of Jews having split loyalties is rightly included in the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance (IHRA) definition of antisemitism. This is exactly the same thing from a Conservative candidate with respect to Muslims.
I wish you the best of luck trying the same arguments against claims of antisemitism: "well, sure, he supported an antisemitic cartoon but he's never built a single death camp". You just wouldn't do it, would you? And yet... here you are, doing just that.
A reminder: the the accusation of Jews having split loyalties is rightly included in the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance (IHRA) definition of antisemitism. This is exactly the same thing from a Conservative candidate with respect to Muslims.
There's no future where the nation goes to war with Israel. There are multiple futures where we go to war with various Islamic nations that British Muslim people identify with closer than to the UK.
However, it's a distraction and we should dump him before the deadline.
It's not a "distraction", it's islamophobia. As plain as day.
My constituency history Southampton Itchen, Norfolk South, Witham, Mid Norfolk, Norfolk North, Norwich South Voting history - Labour (I feel sick), Green, Conservative and Referendum Party have enjoyed my patronage, I am the original neverLibber
Witham's only been Witham since 2010. Before that it was part of Braintree. Won for Labour in '97 by a very nice man called Alan Hurst, who, invited by a local industrialist to hear (knowing the industrialist, often wild and irrational) complaints, about Labour Govt policy said patiently I agree about a and b, but not about c and d. I'll take your complaints about a, b and d to the appropriate place. Completely defused the complainant. Sadly Hurst lost his seat in '05 to a self-important plonker called Brooks Newmark
Has @Scott_P seen an advance showing & changed his ways?
“Stop Reading the News (and Enjoy a Happier, Calmer and Wiser Life)
News is the sugar of the mind. The bestselling author of The Art of Thinking Clearly is here to teach us how to give up this source of anxiety and disruption in favour of calmness and real insight.“
My constituency history Southampton Itchen, Norfolk South, Witham, Mid Norfolk, Norfolk North, Norwich South Voting history - Labour (I feel sick), Green, Conservative and Referendum Party have enjoyed my patronage, I am the original neverLibber
A reminder: the the accusation of Jews having split loyalties is rightly included in the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance (IHRA) definition of antisemitism. This is exactly the same thing from a Conservative candidate with respect to Muslims.
There's no future where the nation goes to war with Israel. There are multiple futures where we go to war with various Islamic nations that British Muslim people identify with closer than to the UK.
However, it's a distraction and we should dump him before the deadline.
It's not a "distraction", it's islamophobia. As plain as day.
No it's not. Phobia implies an irrational fear. There is a very real fear in the home office and intelligence services that a war with an Islamic country wil cause split loyalties among a very large number of British Muslims. Arguably it already happened with Iraq II, now imagine a war with Pakistan where the majority of Britain's Muslims come or originate from.
Writing as a liberal Conservative myself, Farage's move doesn't make the slightest difference. There is no Con deal with the Brexit Party - Farage has unilaterally capitulated. His decision doesn't affect Tory policy or actions so I don't see why it should influence my thinking.
Of much more relevance is the failure to publish the report on Russian involvement / influence.
Which, as I pointed out yesterday, has already been leaked.
The loyalists on here have already discounted the leak as containing nothing of consequence, but none of them answered the obvious question of "If it is so unimportant, why fail to publish it?"
It has been leaked. It is really not important - there is no smoking gun.
Why somebody thought it worth being prosecuted for breaching the Official Secrets Act by leaking it is more of a mystery.
Has the full report been leaked? All I have seen is a brief report in the Times online which frankly could have been guessed at.
Also, if the report is that innocuous why was it subject to the Official Secrets Act, and why not officially published by the government?
The full report has not been published. There has been a story about what may be in it which suggests that the report is only about donations to the Tory party from prominent Russians. It is not, as Dominic Grieve has made clear. The fact that the limited “leak” or story has led to some people suggesting that there is nothing much in the full report, that this is a big fuss about nothing is itself interesting. If one were cynical one might think that it had done its job.
Writing as a liberal Conservative myself, Farage's move doesn't make the slightest difference. There is no Con deal with the Brexit Party - Farage has unilaterally capitulated. His decision doesn't affect Tory policy or actions so I don't see why it should influence my thinking.
Of much more relevance is the failure to publish the report on Russian involvement / influence.
Which, as I pointed out yesterday, has already been leaked.
The loyalists on here have already discounted the leak as containing nothing of consequence, but none of them answered the obvious question of "If it is so unimportant, why fail to publish it?"
It has been leaked. It is really not important - there is no smoking gun.
Why somebody thought it worth being prosecuted for breaching the Official Secrets Act by leaking it is more of a mystery.
Has the full report been leaked? All I have seen is a brief report in the Times online which frankly could have been guessed at.
Also, if the report is that innocuous why was it subject to the Official Secrets Act, and why not officially published by the government?
The full report has not been published. There has been a story about what may be in it which suggests that the report is only about donations to the Tory party from prominent Russians. It is not, as Dominic Grieve has made clear. The fact that the limited “leak” or story has led to some people suggesting that there is nothing much in the full report, that this is a big fuss about nothing is itself interesting. If one were cynical one might think that it had done its job.
It’s a disgrace. The Tories are weak on national security. Although doubt the Russians have kompromat on Boris because we already know he’s a crook on heat.
Oh for the days when it was John Major and Tony Blair.
As a counter-factual, I wonder if had the Labour spin-machine in the 90s been less brutally effective in vilifying John Major's government, our politics might have avoided descending into an unremitting culture war.
Oh for the days when it was John Major and Tony Blair.
As a counter-factual, I wonder if had the Labour spin-machine in the 90s been less brutally effective in vilifying John Major's government, our politics might have avoided descending into an unremitting culture war.
Yep.
New Labour is when British public life took a downward turn.
Oh for the days when it was John Major and Tony Blair.
As a counter-factual, I wonder if had the Labour spin-machine in the 90s been less brutally effective in vilifying John Major's government, our politics might have avoided descending into an unremitting culture war.
Labour's brutal spin machine also turned on its own and finished the careers of lots of Labour MPs who didn't support the leadership, but whom are still way way to the right of the current Labour party. A sunday didn't used to go by without some hit piece on a Labour MP based on a leak bit of dirt from Team Gordo.
Oh for the days when it was John Major and Tony Blair.
As a counter-factual, I wonder if had the Labour spin-machine in the 90s been less brutally effective in vilifying John Major's government, our politics might have avoided descending into an unremitting culture war.
Yep.
New Labour is when British public life took a downward turn.
I think the 24h news cycle started the process and then Twitter put it on steroids.
A reminder: the the accusation of Jews having split loyalties is rightly included in the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance (IHRA) definition of antisemitism. This is exactly the same thing from a Conservative candidate with respect to Muslims.
I wish you the best of luck trying the same arguments against claims of antisemitism: "well, sure, he supported an antisemitic cartoon but he's never built a single death camp". You just wouldn't do it, would you? And yet... here you are, doing just that.
Would you describe yourself as pro-Chinese or anti-Chinese?
If the Conservatives win without a majority, what is the likelihood of them forming a coalition government with the Brexit Party? - Sophie Shipton, Romford
Correct answer - Almost nil.
BBC Answer
The government has ruled out forming an election pact with Brexit Party during the election campaign. But if the Conservatives fell short of a majority, and the Brexit Party won a handful of crucial seats - then it may choose to support the Conservatives on specific issues in order to get Brexit over the line. So a temporary alliance of convenience is probably more likely than a formal coalition government.
I mean it's technically correct but highly improbable and so misleading at the same time given FPTP.
Because they won't have any seats, you mean? I agree the question may be moot - though the answer is caveated - "*if* the BXP won a handful of crucial seats".
But I'd expect a lone Richard Tice (or whatever) to act vaguely in that way if he got in. Wouldn't you? In much the way Caroline Lucas usually votes leftward.
If they have a “handful” of seats their value in a coalition is marginal so they would just be ignored.
My rule of thumb is less than 20 seats you don’t get much
I think Arlene Foster would like a word (and a £1bn bung while you're at it).
Writing as a liberal Conservative myself, Farage's move doesn't make the slightest difference. There is no Con deal with the Brexit Party - Farage has unilaterally capitulated. His decision doesn't affect Tory policy or actions so I don't see why it should influence my thinking.
Of much more relevance is the failure to publish the report on Russian involvement / influence.
Which, as I pointed out yesterday, has already been leaked.
The loyalists on here have already discounted the leak as containing nothing of consequence, but none of them answered the obvious question of "If it is so unimportant, why fail to publish it?"
They had to complete all the review process by Nov 8.
Those take time.
It is perfect plausible that Downing Street moves slowly for political benefit but that is an allegation - the 3 week review process would be at the faster end (IIRC 2 weeks is the absolute minimum).
But why did someone leak a sensitive non public intelligence report before it has gone through the official process?
Because the the official process had already been completed, but the release has been delayed for exclusively political reasons because the findings are quite serious for the Conservative party. The security services are very unhappy that the document has been kicked into the long grass.
Incidentally one of the most serious findings seems to be that Dominic Cummings does appear to have been granted full security clearance...
That’s the point - the official process hadn’t been completed. Intelligence and Parliament had signed off but Downing Street isn’t just a forwarding service
I’d be surprised if the intelligence service has an official position - we’ve had leaks from former officers complaining
Thank you to all those who have declared where they live and/or vote. I personally think that is very constructive when people are offering opinions on the local "scene". Here in the Highlands, apart from Inverness and District with a population of c100,000, Fort William is the only place with more than 10,000 residents. Most towns are in the 5000-9000 range which I know in some parts of England would barely constitute a community let alone a village. In some cities more than 1000 people live within the 10,000 sqm area of my gardens and many more in the 1/2 mile length of my driveway (dirt track) applied to a city.
I did grow up in the West End of Glasgow but then if I say I had a Tory MP and nothing but Tory Councillors for the first 20 years of my life, anyone can quickly work out how atypical of Glasgow, Glasgow Hillhead was.
I see Malcolmg is being his usual charming self. I suspect some Nats are worried that their Indyref2 or bust campaign is going to fall far short of the hype Joanna Cherrybums and others have been spouting for months. Pete Wishart being swept away by a Scon for me would be the highlight of election night.
In answer to someone down list, the SCons and SLibs have never liked one another because for many years we have "fished in the same pool". I wont even vote for my Slib cousin at Westminster though I did when he was a Councillor.
A reminder: the the accusation of Jews having split loyalties is rightly included in the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance (IHRA) definition of antisemitism. This is exactly the same thing from a Conservative candidate with respect to Muslims.
Well, no it isn't the same, because the historical context is completely different.
I do agree he shouldn't be standing. I'm just curious why the line of "these comments were made [x] years ago, [y] has apologised for these comments and sincerely regrets them" only ever works for one side of the political spectrum? Naz Shah in particular has some cheek weighing in, given her history of rank ignorance, in particular her admission that she "didn’t get anti-Semitism as racism".
A reminder: the the accusation of Jews having split loyalties is rightly included in the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance (IHRA) definition of antisemitism. This is exactly the same thing from a Conservative candidate with respect to Muslims.
I wish you the best of luck trying the same arguments against claims of antisemitism: "well, sure, he supported an antisemitic cartoon but he's never built a single death camp". You just wouldn't do it, would you? And yet... here you are, doing just that.
Would you describe yourself as pro-Chinese or anti-Chinese?
You always ask the strangest questions whenever the topic of islamophobia comes up. Last time you asked what I thought about Salman Rushdie. I presume you're going in a similar direction now, asking me to take sides in some binary between islamophobia and islamofascism. Cut it out, now. You can be against both. I hate all religious-based intolerance, whether it's coming from or directed towards people of faith.
It has never struck me until this morning that regular posters on PB are (it seems to me) overwhelmingly urbanites, living in large towns and cities. Few of you seem to write from the perspective of living in a rural community. I also suspect the majority of you live in the south-east of England. Accordingly your thinking about how voters think or vote are "coloured" by the communities within which you live. No doubt I will be greeted with howls of protest but it would be an interesting exercise for all regular PBers to disclose in which constituency they live and vote. You all know I live in the most northerly mainland constituency Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross which is larger than the entire Home Counties I think.
The London suburbs but with deep roots in Hampshire and the West Country
Godalming in SW Surrey. Smallish town with rural hinterland.
Wolverhampton SW. Outside of London, one of only 3 Lab gains from the Tories in 2015. A leave seat in a strong leave city. Nowadays the city defies the stereotypes arising from its association with Powell. e.g. Was last week part of the crowd at the Molineux which spent a fair bit of the time chanting "you racist bastards" at the Slovan Bratislava ultras.
I’m in the Thornbury part of Thornbury and Yate constituency. There are 3 main towns (Chipping Sodbury missing from the name) and we have a useless Tory MP who always tows the party line. I think it will stay Tory as Thornbury and Yate are strongly Libdem - pretty much all Town councillors are Libdem, but Chipping Sodbury and rural areas will lean more Tory. We didn’t have a UKIP last time but in 2015 they got 5000 votes so that appeared to solidify the current MP last time, and an 8000 majority will probably see him home despite the Greens standing down (600 votes last time). The libdems will be hoping to squeeze the 6000 labour votes.
On topic: Well, as a Con2017 Remain voter, I can categorically say that my vote, whatever it is (I don't know yet) will not be influenced in the slightest by the amusing spectacle of Farage deciding to march his troops down the hill again. Why should it be? It's clearly simply an acknowledgement that, far from 'Changing politics for good', the BXP is nowhere in this election. Farage is right on that, but it has zero bearing on my vote, and I'm pretty sure I speak for most Con2107 Remain voters.
Thanks again Pulpstar, I was on at those prices too (for slightly more than you ;-)), just surprised they haven't moved further in line with the seat markets. Any idea why they've removed the 400 ups? Any idea when you'd cash out?!
Sore point, this, with me. I bought at 1 - yes ONE, you couldn't sell it when they first quoted - and was therefore able to do it for a big unit stake. It moved from 0/1 to 1/3 over the first week or so. It should now, per recent movements, be 3/5 or at the very least 2/4. Which would mean I could close out and win my unit stake (which as I say is quite large) or perhaps double my unit stake. But oh no. SPIN have removed it. It's no longer quoted. So I can't. If they do not get it back up soon - properly priced - I will be considering my options. Which is kind of what this bet is, actually, an option. It's USP therefore is volatility, which is completely nullified if they don't keep it priced up and tradeable.
A reminder: the the accusation of Jews having split loyalties is rightly included in the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance (IHRA) definition of antisemitism. This is exactly the same thing from a Conservative candidate with respect to Muslims.
There's no future where the nation goes to war with Israel. There are multiple futures where we go to war with various Islamic nations that British Muslim people identify with closer than to the UK.
However, it's a distraction and we should dump him before the deadline.
It's not a "distraction", it's islamophobia. As plain as day.
It was an article he wrote in 2002 and apologised for/recanted in 2008.
For how long are the sins of the past held over a person?
A reminder: the the accusation of Jews having split loyalties is rightly included in the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance (IHRA) definition of antisemitism. This is exactly the same thing from a Conservative candidate with respect to Muslims.
I wish you the best of luck trying the same arguments against claims of antisemitism: "well, sure, he supported an antisemitic cartoon but he's never built a single death camp". You just wouldn't do it, would you? And yet... here you are, doing just that.
Would you describe yourself as pro-Chinese or anti-Chinese?
You always ask the strangest questions whenever the topic of islamophobia comes up. Last time you asked what I thought about Salman Rushdie. I presume you're going in a similar direction now, asking me to take sides in some binary between islamophobia and islamofascism. Cut it out, now. You can be against both. I hate all religious-based intolerance, whether it's coming from or directed towards people of faith.
So would you say the Chinese "re-education camps" are a more extreme form of Islamophobia than some random Tweets?
Writing as a liberal Conservative myself, Farage's move doesn't make the slightest difference. There is no Con deal with the Brexit Party - Farage has unilaterally capitulated. His decision doesn't affect Tory policy or actions so I don't see why it should influence my thinking.
Of much more relevance is the failure to publish the report on Russian involvement / influence.
Which, as I pointed out yesterday, has already been leaked.
The loyalists on here have already discounted the leak as containing nothing of consequence, but none of them answered the obvious question of "If it is so unimportant, why fail to publish it?"
It has been leaked. It is really not important - there is no smoking gun.
Why somebody thought it worth being prosecuted for breaching the Official Secrets Act by leaking it is more of a mystery.
Has the full report been leaked? All I have seen is a brief report in the Times online which frankly could have been guessed at.
Also, if the report is that innocuous why was it subject to the Official Secrets Act, and why not officially published by the government?
The full report has not been published. There has been a story about what may be in it which suggests that the report is only about donations to the Tory party from prominent Russians. It is not, as Dominic Grieve has made clear. The fact that the limited “leak” or story has led to some people suggesting that there is nothing much in the full report, that this is a big fuss about nothing is itself interesting. If one were cynical one might think that it had done its job.
We've been told consecutively that there was clearly nothing in it, otherwise it would have been leaked - and now that a partial leak proves that there is nothing in it.
Which of course explains why it wasn't published when it could easily have been...
A reminder: the the accusation of Jews having split loyalties is rightly included in the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance (IHRA) definition of antisemitism. This is exactly the same thing from a Conservative candidate with respect to Muslims.
There's no future where the nation goes to war with Israel. There are multiple futures where we go to war with various Islamic nations that British Muslim people identify with closer than to the UK.
However, it's a distraction and we should dump him before the deadline.
It's not a "distraction", it's islamophobia. As plain as day.
It was an article he wrote in 2002 and apologised for/recanted in 2008.
For how long are the sins of the past held over a person?
Yeah, read Noo's introduction and thought it would be recent, not something over 15 years old.
On topic: Well, as a Con2017 Remain voter, I can categorically say that my vote, whatever it is (I don't know yet) will not be influenced in the slightest by the amusing spectacle of Farage deciding to march his troops down the hill again. Why should it be? It's clearly simply an acknowledgement that, far from 'Changing politics for good', the BXP is nowhere in this election. Farage is right on that, but it has zero bearing on my vote, and I'm pretty sure I speak for most Con2107 Remain voters.
"Hopefully" (and I mean "hopefully" from Nige's point of view), the BXP will exceed UKIP's paltry 2017 score of 1.9%
A reminder: the the accusation of Jews having split loyalties is rightly included in the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance (IHRA) definition of antisemitism. This is exactly the same thing from a Conservative candidate with respect to Muslims.
Well, no it isn't the same, because the historical context is completely different.
I do agree he shouldn't be standing. I'm just curious why the line of "these comments were made [x] years ago, [y] has apologised for these comments and sincerely regrets them" only ever works for one side of the political spectrum? Naz Shah in particular has some cheek weighing in, given her history of rank ignorance, in particular her admission that she "didn’t get anti-Semitism as racism".
I have NEVER made those kind of comments. If someone has made racist statements, doesn't matter whether it's 20 years ago, I won't vote for them. Unlike a lot of people on here, I don't have any party loyalty. There seem to be a lot of diehards, though, who put their party ahead of even basic standards of decency in the candidates. And it doesn't matter what side you're on... if you do that, you're making the world a worse place.
A reminder: the the accusation of Jews having split loyalties is rightly included in the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance (IHRA) definition of antisemitism. This is exactly the same thing from a Conservative candidate with respect to Muslims.
I wish you the best of luck trying the same arguments against claims of antisemitism: "well, sure, he supported an antisemitic cartoon but he's never built a single death camp". You just wouldn't do it, would you? And yet... here you are, doing just that.
Would you describe yourself as pro-Chinese or anti-Chinese?
You always ask the strangest questions whenever the topic of islamophobia comes up. Last time you asked what I thought about Salman Rushdie. I presume you're going in a similar direction now, asking me to take sides in some binary between islamophobia and islamofascism. Cut it out, now. You can be against both. I hate all religious-based intolerance, whether it's coming from or directed towards people of faith.
So on the question of homophobia. Is it intolerant for a religious text to be against homosexuality, or is it intolerant to refuse to allow people to follow a religious text? I don’t think you can state you hate all religious based intolerance, because you will still have a world view where you fall one side or the other of that question.
I’m not saying it is right or wrong to fall either side but it does throw up interesting questions
Clearly the Cyber attack on Labour was done by Mossad More importantly - news from Australia re "5 eyes agreement" on security
Under a Corbyn government, they will abandon the support for the Western Alliance and steer a completely different foreign policy and security policy direction to such an extent that I think we would be unwise to continue the intelligence-sharing relationship with a Corbyn-led Britain of the kind that we’ve had … under Gordon Brown and Tony Blair and so on over the years.
“I think that would have to change. So I’m hoping, unusually … you will be surprised to hear me say this, that Boris Johnson wins the election on the twelfth of December. I think it is important to us as Australians.”
I am surprised at 69% who are still voting Conservative. Perhaps they don't realise how things have changed. Do they really want to support Brexit? And surely the Conservative Party is NOT what it used to be.
A reminder: the the accusation of Jews having split loyalties is rightly included in the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance (IHRA) definition of antisemitism. This is exactly the same thing from a Conservative candidate with respect to Muslims.
I wish you the best of luck trying the same arguments against claims of antisemitism: "well, sure, he supported an antisemitic cartoon but he's never built a single death camp". You just wouldn't do it, would you? And yet... here you are, doing just that.
Would you describe yourself as pro-Chinese or anti-Chinese?
You always ask the strangest questions whenever the topic of islamophobia comes up. Last time you asked what I thought about Salman Rushdie. I presume you're going in a similar direction now, asking me to take sides in some binary between islamophobia and islamofascism. Cut it out, now. You can be against both. I hate all religious-based intolerance, whether it's coming from or directed towards people of faith.
So would you say the Chinese "re-education camps" are a more extreme form of Islamophobia than some random Tweets?
I mean, why? If I reported that someone had put a brick through a synagogue window, would you really chime in and ask me whether I thought it was equal to or less extreme than ghettos and extermination camps? It's pretty obvious there's a big difference, but where are you going with this? That it's ok to make islamophobic comments? That it's ok to accuse Jews of being more loyal to Israel? Is this how we are to conduct all assessments of the character of any candidate... find something unimaginably worse and use it as a yardstick with which to diminish their mistakes? Why would you want to go down this road?
Under PR voters get a proportion of what they voted for and there are few wasted votes. The Lib Dems didn't win in 2010 so had to make the best of the Tories policy on tuition fees (actually they could and should have stuck to their policy, but for some reason thought that other things were more important).
According to Cameron's autobiography Clegg wholesale rejected the Lib Dem policy and adopted the Conservative one. Even George Osborne advised him not to do so.
They didn't "make the best" they actively.decided to fuck over the people who voted for them.
Hmmm Maybe a biased witness with an anti Lib Dem agenda? There is quite a different story from the Yellow side of the discussion: more or less point blank "no chance" from the Tories...
On topic: Well, as a Con2017 Remain voter, I can categorically say that my vote, whatever it is (I don't know yet) will not be influenced in the slightest by the amusing spectacle of Farage deciding to march his troops down the hill again. Why should it be? It's clearly simply an acknowledgement that, far from 'Changing politics for good', the BXP is nowhere in this election. Farage is right on that, but it has zero bearing on my vote, and I'm pretty sure I speak for most Con2107 Remain voters.
"Hopefully" (and I mean "hopefully" from Nige's point of view), the BXP will exceed UKIP's paltry 2017 score of 1.9%
As long as they get less than 5%, I shall be happy, thanks to Paddy Power.
On topic: Well, as a Con2017 Remain voter, I can categorically say that my vote, whatever it is (I don't know yet) will not be influenced in the slightest by the amusing spectacle of Farage deciding to march his troops down the hill again. Why should it be? It's clearly simply an acknowledgement that, far from 'Changing politics for good', the BXP is nowhere in this election. Farage is right on that, but it has zero bearing on my vote, and I'm pretty sure I speak for most Con2107 Remain voters.
I am surprised at 69% who are still voting Conservative. Perhaps they don't realise how things have changed. Do they really want to support Brexit? And surely the Conservative Party is NOT what it used to be.
Welcome Michael. Perhaps they are not only voting with regards to Brexit, or perhaps they are pragmatic and want to support democratic decisions even if it is not what they preferred.
I am surprised at 69% who are still voting Conservative. Perhaps they don't realise how things have changed. Do they really want to support Brexit? And surely the Conservative Party is NOT what it used to be.
Isn't Tice the TBP Chief Exec, as well as candidate for Hartlepool (unless there's another TBP Plan and MEP for wherever? And is it a reasonable assumption that a fair few of the 371 are going to be pretty riled at getting shafted like this?
So where IS the poor bloke going to find the time to manage the HR complications?
Of course: if a PPC like Mr Bayley doesn't actually stand, presumably Mr Putin can refund him his £10k without it having to appear on Bayley's statutorily limited election expenses - or anyone having to deal with a nosy Electoral Commission.. Ditto the other 370 So all Tice has to do is phone the Kremlin, get a few million extra and everyone'll be happy.
A reminder: the the accusation of Jews having split loyalties is rightly included in the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance (IHRA) definition of antisemitism. This is exactly the same thing from a Conservative candidate with respect to Muslims.
There's no future where the nation goes to war with Israel. There are multiple futures where we go to war with various Islamic nations that British Muslim people identify with closer than to the UK.
However, it's a distraction and we should dump him before the deadline.
It's not a "distraction", it's islamophobia. As plain as day.
It was an article he wrote in 2002 and apologised for/recanted in 2008.
For how long are the sins of the past held over a person?
When it comes to religious or racial intolerance, and in terms of candidature for parliament -- forever. Sorry if that seems harsh to you, but there are enough people out there who aren't bigots that we can afford to permanently discard those who are. Being a member of parliament is an enormous position of responsibility, an important element of which is pastoral care and representing the vulnerable. We've become so infused with the idea of parliamentarians as pugilists that we forget that an MP also needs to nurture and protect. An MP with a history of bigotry is forever damaged. We can do so much better than this.
Brexit Party cancels London rally because no one was going to turn up I suspect.
My sense is that BXP were going to be a damp squib in this election. Johnson has eaten Farage's lunch and Farage, realizing this and having lost the support of his money man Banks, is now just scrabbling around for ways to stay in the news. Perhaps he has got himself an offer of a little something for himself personally, in return for standing his party down in Tory seats, but I doubt even that. Worse day of Nigel's political career, I would suggest, when fellow Leave populist Blondie got the Tory leadership and PM.
I am surprised at 69% who are still voting Conservative. Perhaps they don't realise how things have changed. Do they really want to support Brexit? And surely the Conservative Party is NOT what it used to be.
Same could be said of Conservatives in the 1980s, morphing into something more Thatcherite.
Any bookies offering odds on Farage getting a peerage/knighthood in the next 14 months?
That would be a disgrace.
Absolutely agree - unless the supposed offer was made by rentagob repellants like Francois or Bridgen & who would hopefully have no authority to make any such suggestions!
What do you make of the disgrace Raheem Sterling? He should never again play for England.
Is the a deal or has the BXP did this of it's own accord ?
Don't be stupid of course it is a deal.
It’s like the greens standing aside in Scotland every Westminster election.
They don't stand aside, they have no support and cannot afford to lose deposits in most seats you f***ing numpty. It is also a local constituency decision not a country wide stitch up for gain.
You’re always so cheery Malcolm. What’s your secret?
Gallowgate , I am indeed a cheery chap, however the sheer ignorance of numpties does annoy me. Clowns like that spouting utter crap don't deserve cheery replies, I save them for the nice guys and gals
If anybody wants a crash-course in cyber warfare whilst this Labour hack story is unfolding, I can strongly recommend Sandworm by Andy Greenberg. It's 12 hours long on Audible. Well worth it.
A reminder: the the accusation of Jews having split loyalties is rightly included in the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance (IHRA) definition of antisemitism. This is exactly the same thing from a Conservative candidate with respect to Muslims.
Well, no it isn't the same, because the historical context is completely different.
I do agree he shouldn't be standing. I'm just curious why the line of "these comments were made [x] years ago, [y] has apologised for these comments and sincerely regrets them" only ever works for one side of the political spectrum? Naz Shah in particular has some cheek weighing in, given her history of rank ignorance, in particular her admission that she "didn’t get anti-Semitism as racism".
I have NEVER made those kind of comments. If someone has made racist statements, doesn't matter whether it's 20 years ago, I won't vote for them. Unlike a lot of people on here, I don't have any party loyalty. There seem to be a lot of diehards, though, who put their party ahead of even basic standards of decency in the candidates. And it doesn't matter what side you're on... if you do that, you're making the world a worse place.
That sounds totally reasonable, if you're basing your vote on the individuals on the ballot paper and nothing more.
My previous post was based on the assumption that you were talking about the Conservatives as a party. If you're instead ruling out voting for any party that doesn't display a zero tolerance, one-strike-and-you're-out-even-if-it-was-years-before-you-joined-the-party policy (which is what I inferred from your introduction), I think you'll not be voting ever again.
A reminder: the the accusation of Jews having split loyalties is rightly included in the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance (IHRA) definition of antisemitism. This is exactly the same thing from a Conservative candidate with respect to Muslims.
Writing in 2002
“In a passage about Muslim leaders warning the Iraq war could cause social unrest, he wrote: “Whatever the merits or demerits of war on Iraq, it is hardly a national strength to have a large minority with such divided loyalties during war.” “
I’m sure the victims and families of 7/7, London Bridge, the Ariana Grande concert, along with Lee Rigby, wish that no British Muslims were driven to terrorism by such foreign policy.
It has never struck me until this morning that regular posters on PB are (it seems to me) overwhelmingly urbanites, living in large towns and cities. Few of you seem to write from the perspective of living in a rural community. I also suspect the majority of you live in the south-east of England. Accordingly your thinking about how voters think or vote are "coloured" by the communities within which you live. No doubt I will be greeted with howls of protest but it would be an interesting exercise for all regular PBers to disclose in which constituency they live and vote. You all know I live in the most northerly mainland constituency Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross which is larger than the entire Home Counties I think.
I am in Ayrshire, constituency is Central Ayrshire for Westminster
A reminder: the the accusation of Jews having split loyalties is rightly included in the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance (IHRA) definition of antisemitism. This is exactly the same thing from a Conservative candidate with respect to Muslims.
There's no future where the nation goes to war with Israel. There are multiple futures where we go to war with various Islamic nations that British Muslim people identify with closer than to the UK.
However, it's a distraction and we should dump him before the deadline.
It's not a "distraction", it's islamophobia. As plain as day.
It was an article he wrote in 2002 and apologised for/recanted in 2008.
For how long are the sins of the past held over a person?
When it comes to religious or racial intolerance, and in terms of candidature for parliament -- forever. Sorry if that seems harsh to you, but there are enough people out there who aren't bigots that we can afford to permanently discard those who are. Being a member of parliament is an enormous position of responsibility, an important element of which is pastoral care and representing the vulnerable. We've become so infused with the idea of parliamentarians as pugilists that we forget that an MP also needs to nurture and protect. An MP with a history of bigotry is forever damaged. We can do so much better than this.
Great. You can start by not implying support for articles heavily based on quotes from convicted bigot Naz Shah.
Writing as a liberal Conservative myself, Farage's move doesn't make the slightest difference. There is no Con deal with the Brexit Party - Farage has unilaterally capitulated. His decision doesn't affect Tory policy or actions so I don't see why it should influence my thinking.
Of much more relevance is the failure to publish the report on Russian involvement / influence.
Which, as I pointed out yesterday, has already been leaked.
The loyalists on here have already discounted the leak as containing nothing of consequence, but none of them answered the obvious question of "If it is so unimportant, why fail to publish it?"
They had to complete all the review process by Nov 8.
Those take time.
It is perfect plausible that Downing Street moves slowly for political benefit but that is an allegation - the 3 week review process would be at the faster end (IIRC 2 weeks is the absolute minimum).
But why did someone leak a sensitive non public intelligence report before it has gone through the official process?
Because they knew the crooks would hide it till after the election. Take Boris half an hour to read it , crap his pants and tell them to ban publication till after the election.
My constituency, Hampstead & Kilburn, having gone big for Labour in 2017, is shaping up to return to its 2010 status as an exciting 3 way marginal. Labour the favourites with a 60% chance, LDs next best at 30%, Cons outsiders but live outsiders at 10%. These being my ratings.
Makes a person feel so important, living in a seat like this where all 3 parties are in with a shot. You feel like your vote really counts. Which it does, of course, it counts ONE, same as everybody else's.
Comments
I bleed Hampshire. And have always lived in Hampshire.
Was interesting and informative; often voters for the undesirable party (BNP or UKIP) were the ones most open to talking to us (Greens) just because we weren't those bastards with actual power. Did they like our policies once they heard them? No, not really. But they very rarely rude to us (unlike to local Labour or Conservative knockers) and often were grateful we'd talked to them.
So this week's Sunil on Sunday ELBOW is now:
CON 38.44 (+0.56)
LAB 28.11 (+1.78)
LD 16.00 (0.00)
BXP 9.00 (-1.38)
CON lead 10.33 (-0.92)
Changes vs. Sunday 3rd Nov
Polls: ComRes, Deltapoll, BMG, Opinium, Panelbase, ICM, 3 YouGovs
If one's over 45........There's a few pieces in the news lately about men having age-appropriate partners. And Ms Sturgeon's quite an attractive woman.
Southampton Itchen, Norfolk South, Witham, Mid Norfolk, Norfolk North, Norwich South
Voting history - Labour (I feel sick), Green, Conservative and Referendum Party have enjoyed my patronage, I am the original neverLibber
Incidentally one of the most serious findings seems to be that Dominic Cummings does appear to have been granted full security clearance...
THAT'S Islamophobia:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xinjiang_re-education_camps
However, it's a distraction and we should dump him before the deadline.
You just wouldn't do it, would you? And yet... here you are, doing just that.
Dianne Abbot and Dominic Cummings are both near neighbours.
Previously Islington South and Finsbury, back when Boris lived there too (once ran past him on the canal, should have pushed him in).
I have vague memories of relatives with a Hampshire “burr” and Thomas Hardy certainly included Hampshire within his definition of Wessex.
Sadly Hurst lost his seat in '05 to a self-important plonker called Brooks Newmark
https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1193959465336426499?s=20
“Stop Reading the News (and Enjoy a Happier, Calmer and Wiser Life)
News is the sugar of the mind. The bestselling author of The Art of Thinking Clearly is here to teach us how to give up this source of anxiety and disruption in favour of calmness and real insight.“
https://www.howtoacademy.com/events/stop-reading-the-news-and-enjoy-a-happier-calmer-and-wiser-life/?mc_cid=9894f2d4ce&mc_eid=13dceda7ce
Leftie!
Conservatives 318
Labour 199
Lib Dems 77
SNP 33
PC 4
Green 1
...and for Alliance/UUP/SDLP to win at least seat each in NI.
Ain’t gonna happen though.
The Tories are weak on national security.
Although doubt the Russians have kompromat on Boris because we already know he’s a crook on heat.
New Labour is when British public life took a downward turn.
I’d be surprised if the intelligence service has an official position - we’ve had leaks from former officers complaining
https://twitter.com/wayne_bayiey/status/1194020457772658690?s=21
I might go off Albon.
https://twitter.com/redbullracing/status/1194196856147828737
I did grow up in the West End of Glasgow but then if I say I had a Tory MP and nothing but Tory Councillors for the first 20 years of my life, anyone can quickly work out how atypical of Glasgow, Glasgow Hillhead was.
I see Malcolmg is being his usual charming self. I suspect some Nats are worried that their Indyref2 or bust campaign is going to fall far short of the hype Joanna Cherrybums and others have been spouting for months. Pete Wishart being swept away by a Scon for me would be the highlight of election night.
In answer to someone down list, the SCons and SLibs have never liked one another because for many years we have "fished in the same pool". I wont even vote for my Slib cousin at Westminster though I did when he was a Councillor.
I do agree he shouldn't be standing. I'm just curious why the line of "these comments were made [x] years ago, [y] has apologised for these comments and sincerely regrets them" only ever works for one side of the political spectrum? Naz Shah in particular has some cheek weighing in, given her history of rank ignorance, in particular her admission that she "didn’t get anti-Semitism as racism".
I presume you're going in a similar direction now, asking me to take sides in some binary between islamophobia and islamofascism. Cut it out, now. You can be against both. I hate all religious-based intolerance, whether it's coming from or directed towards people of faith.
For me the West Country is really the Summer Country plus Dorset running down into Kernow. The New Forest and bits of Hampshire fit there.
North West Hampshire really fits closer to Oxford, while the South and IoW tie to Winchester and Sussex
and East Hampshire is definitely Surrey...
For how long are the sins of the past held over a person?
Which of course explains why it wasn't published when it could easily have been...
That is some thin gruel.
https://www.basingstoke.me.uk/lgswords.jpg
https://twitter.com/BenRTWeisz/status/1193893765607546880?s=20
Unlike a lot of people on here, I don't have any party loyalty. There seem to be a lot of diehards, though, who put their party ahead of even basic standards of decency in the candidates. And it doesn't matter what side you're on... if you do that, you're making the world a worse place.
I’m not saying it is right or wrong to fall either side but it does throw up interesting questions
More importantly - news from Australia re "5 eyes agreement" on security
Under a Corbyn government, they will abandon the support for the Western Alliance and steer a completely different foreign policy and security policy direction to such an extent that I think we would be unwise to continue the intelligence-sharing relationship with a Corbyn-led Britain of the kind that we’ve had … under Gordon Brown and Tony Blair and so on over the years.
“I think that would have to change. So I’m hoping, unusually … you will be surprised to hear me say this, that Boris Johnson wins the election on the twelfth of December. I think it is important to us as Australians.”
If I reported that someone had put a brick through a synagogue window, would you really chime in and ask me whether I thought it was equal to or less extreme than ghettos and extermination camps?
It's pretty obvious there's a big difference, but where are you going with this? That it's ok to make islamophobic comments? That it's ok to accuse Jews of being more loyal to Israel? Is this how we are to conduct all assessments of the character of any candidate... find something unimaginably worse and use it as a yardstick with which to diminish their mistakes? Why would you want to go down this road?
I wonder what will be leaked from there?
https://twitter.com/MichaelLCrick/status/1194037948464934914?s=19
https://twitter.com/MichaelLCrick/status/1194040629602353154?s=19
So where IS the poor bloke going to find the time to manage the HR complications?
Of course: if a PPC like Mr Bayley doesn't actually stand, presumably Mr Putin can refund him his £10k without it having to appear on Bayley's statutorily limited election expenses - or anyone having to deal with a nosy Electoral Commission.. Ditto the other 370
So all Tice has to do is phone the Kremlin, get a few million extra and everyone'll be happy.
Being a member of parliament is an enormous position of responsibility, an important element of which is pastoral care and representing the vulnerable. We've become so infused with the idea of parliamentarians as pugilists that we forget that an MP also needs to nurture and protect. An MP with a history of bigotry is forever damaged. We can do so much better than this.
My previous post was based on the assumption that you were talking about the Conservatives as a party. If you're instead ruling out voting for any party that doesn't display a zero tolerance, one-strike-and-you're-out-even-if-it-was-years-before-you-joined-the-party policy (which is what I inferred from your introduction), I think you'll not be voting ever again.
Have they tried turning it off and on again?
I got told off for saying Somerset was the other day...
Makes a person feel so important, living in a seat like this where all 3 parties are in with a shot. You feel like your vote really counts. Which it does, of course, it counts ONE, same as everybody else's.