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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The outstanding question: How will CON GE2017 Remainers view the deal with Farage?
One group of voters who seems to have been by-passed by current events are the 31% of GE2017 CON voters who backed Remain in the referendum. All the focus has been on leavers.
Comments
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What is the late November doing
With the disturbance of the spring
And creatures of the summer heat,
And snowdrops writhing under feet
And hollyhocks that aim too high
Red into grey and tumble down
Late roses filled with early snow?
Thunder rolled by the rolling stars
Simulates triumphal cars
Deployed in constellated wars
Scorpion fights against the sun
Until the Sun and Moon go down
Comets weep and Leonids fly
Hunt the heavens and the plains
Whirled in a vortex that shall bring
The world to that destructive fire
Which burns before the ice-cap reigns
T.S. Eliot
From 'The Four Quartets'
Good morning all0 -
My late Mother was a Tory Remainer and thought Nigel Farage was "a ghastly man"
She would not have voted for anything that had the whiff of Farage.0 -
Is the a deal or has the BXP did this of it's own accord ?0
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I consider it a modern day Molotov-Ribbentrop pact.
I expect the pact to be abrogated and both sides will be at war against each other soon enough.0 -
FPT
Thinking about it, Labour needs to put electoral reform in their manifesto if they want to further consolidate the centre left. It could work if they are serious about it, unlike Tony Blair.0 -
I have voted Tory in the past and I too think Farage is vile.
Personally, I wish Trump would make Nigel an offer he could not refuse and take him off to the USA.
This former-Tory voter will either abstaining or voting LD. In my case voting LD will have much the same effect as my current MP's votes do not need to be counted - they just weigh them by the kilo
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Surely by the stone or pound.Beibheirli_C said:I have voted Tory in the past and I too think Farage is vile.
Personally, I wish Trump would make Nigel an offer he could not refuse and take him off to the USA.
This former-Tory voter will either abstaining or voting LD (in my case voting LD will have much the same effect as my current MP's votes do not need to be counted - they just weigh them by the kilo0 -
Drilling down through the virtual Venn Diagram.
Lord Ashcroft says that 25% of remainers in 2016 voted Tory in 2017.
And the Tory voteshare was 42% in 2017.
And Mike has that 31% of Tory Remainers from 2017 are saying they are going elsewhere.
So assuming everything being equal and ignoring distribution, I make that .25 * .424 * .31 percent of the Electorate being Tory Remainers going elsewhere.
Or 3.3% of the voters in this case. 3.2% switching Tory -> LD. 0.1% switching Tory -> Lab.
Significant?
IMO that depends on distribution.
What does the poll show for Lab Leave voters going Tory?
2 -
Well they want us to think it's completely Farage's idea.asjohnstone said:Is the a deal or has the BXP did this of it's own accord ?
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The horror. The horror.
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I have no truck with the former glories of our Imperial Past. Living in that fantasy is the job of Leaverslogical_song said:
Surely by the stone or pound.Beibheirli_C said:I have voted Tory in the past and I too think Farage is vile.
Personally, I wish Trump would make Nigel an offer he could not refuse and take him off to the USA.
This former-Tory voter will either abstaining or voting LD (in my case voting LD will have much the same effect as my current MP's votes do not need to be counted - they just weigh them by the kilo
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My figures are based on the BES which is what all the the pollsters use for their subsets and analysis.MattW said:Drilling down through the virtual Venn Diagram.
Lord Ashcroft says that 25% of remainers in 2016 voted Tory in 2017.
And the Tory voteshare was 42% in 2017.
And Mike has that 31% of Tory Remainers from 2017 are saying they are going elsewhere.
So assuming everything being equal and ignoring distribution, I make that .25 * .424 * .31 percent of the Electorate being Tory Remainers going elsewhere.
Or 3.3% of the voters in this case. 3.2% switching Tory -> LD. 0.1% switching Tory -> Lab.
Significant?
IMO that depends on distribution.
What does the poll show for Lab Leave voters going Tory?0 -
I am a Tory Brexiteer and think Farage a ghastly man.Mysticrose said:My late Mother was a Tory Remainer and thought Nigel Farage was "a ghastly man"
She would not have voted for anything that had the whiff of Farage.
But he is yesterday's ghastly man. He has been found out. He had no interest in Brexit - just in keeping his milch-cow soap box going. With the UK out of the EU, he really is nothing.2 -
Thurrocks to the lot of you.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-essex-50383988
Lib Dem lancing the boil.
Oddly enough, Kevin McNamara had stood for LDs in Thurrock in 2017, and as candidate for Essex PCC. For some reason his past did not hurt him.0 -
Good morning, everyone.
Well, not really. It's cold, rainy, and windy. Humbug to that.0 -
Greens and Lib Dems at war. What a surprise.TheScreamingEagles said:I consider it a modern day Molotov-Ribbentrop pact.
I expect the pact to be abrogated and both sides will be at war against each other soon enough.0 -
If I was going to stand as a PPC, my first step would be deleting all my social media and starting fresh with new profiles. There will always be something that others can pick on so why give them the opportunity?dr_spyn said:Thurrocks to the lot of you.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-essex-50383988
Lib Dem lancing the boil.0 -
Far be it from me to defend the man, but in fairness he did campaign, including spending his own money and, AIUI putting his marriage under considerable ........ too great ..... a strain for quite a while before people began to take him seriously.MarqueeMark said:
I am a Tory Brexiteer and think Farage a ghastly man.Mysticrose said:My late Mother was a Tory Remainer and thought Nigel Farage was "a ghastly man"
She would not have voted for anything that had the whiff of Farage.
But he is yesterday's ghastly man. He has been found out. He had no interest in Brexit - just in keeping his milch-cow soap box going. With the UK out of the EU, he really is nothing.
I believe too, that he could have made more money on the Metal Exchange if he hadn't turned away into politics.
I expect to see him as UK Ambassador to the US after Christmas, appointed by a triumphant, and triumphing, Boris.
Having said that, yes, he is a ghastly man. I fear that public life in our country is going to get worse before it gets better.
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Nice start to the day, thanks.Mysticrose said:What is the late November doing
With the disturbance of the spring
And creatures of the summer heat,
And snowdrops writhing under feet
And hollyhocks that aim too high
Red into grey and tumble down
Late roses filled with early snow?
Thunder rolled by the rolling stars
Simulates triumphal cars
Deployed in constellated wars
Scorpion fights against the sun
Until the Sun and Moon go down
Comets weep and Leonids fly
Hunt the heavens and the plains
Whirled in a vortex that shall bring
The world to that destructive fire
Which burns before the ice-cap reigns
T.S. Eliot
From 'The Four Quartets'
Good morning all0 -
I’m not sure many will change their vote based on the actions of a party leader that they aren’t interested in supporting anyway.
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I really can't see this influencing Tory remainers against Boris, if they were planning on voting that way. Boris being the Brexity option is pretty priced in surely?0
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In some cases things can still be found in cached versions and the like.Beibheirli_C said:
If I was going to stand as a PPC, my first step would be deleting all my social media and starting fresh with new profiles. There will always be something that others can pick on so why give them the opportunity?dr_spyn said:Thurrocks to the lot of you.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-essex-50383988
Lib Dem lancing the boil.0 -
I fear it already hasOldKingCole said:Having said that, yes, he is a ghastly man. I fear that public life in our country is going to get worse before it gets better.
0 -
If they were reconciled to voting for Boris and leaving the EU then I don't see much changing that.0
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I disagree with anyone doing deals to stand down - you either win your argument with the electorate or you do not. The SNP grew to a massive party from a small base by building their narrative and supporters - if you need others to step aside to boost you then you haven't convinced enough people. And in a democracy what is democratic about a party not standing? Have seen a lot of LD/Green/BXP voters outraged by these deals on Twitter.
As for Brexit the thing not Brexit the Party, I read HYUFD bleating on about trade deals and wonder how we will spin reality when it arrives. The bigger you are the better the deal. Making ourselves smaller than our current trade value in the EU means that we get a worse deal not a better one.
I'm sure that eventually we will manage to replace all of the free trade deals that enthusiasts for free trade demand we walk away from. And all of those deals will be on worse terms because we will be smaller and more insignificant a market than the EU. Thats reality. FTA rampers are either stupid, or know that the people they are selling to are stupid. Either way, its dishonest.0 -
The Imperial unit of measurement for votes is the "donkey", where 1 donkey was standardised in 1868 as being a dozen gross, ie 12*144 = 1728 votes, this being roughly the number of ballot papers a man in his mid-fifties with impeccable recommendations from members at his club could have his man grasp between two arms and his chest.logical_song said:
Surely by the stone or pound.Beibheirli_C said:I have voted Tory in the past and I too think Farage is vile.
Personally, I wish Trump would make Nigel an offer he could not refuse and take him off to the USA.
This former-Tory voter will either abstaining or voting LD (in my case voting LD will have much the same effect as my current MP's votes do not need to be counted - they just weigh them by the kilo6 -
Bad start to the day.
First tweet was Abi Wilks having a go at Sam Gymah.
Cheers Mike. I was after approximate context.MikeSmithson said:
My figures are based on the BES which is what all the the pollsters use for their subsets and analysis.MattW said:Drilling down through the virtual Venn Diagram.
Lord Ashcroft says that 25% of remainers in 2016 voted Tory in 2017.
And the Tory voteshare was 42% in 2017.
And Mike has that 31% of Tory Remainers from 2017 are saying they are going elsewhere.
So assuming everything being equal and ignoring distribution, I make that .25 * .424 * .31 percent of the Electorate being Tory Remainers going elsewhere.
Or 3.3% of the voters in this case. 3.2% switching Tory -> LD. 0.1% switching Tory -> Lab.
Significant?
IMO that depends on distribution.
What does the poll show for Lab Leave voters going Tory?
To me the numbers look potentially significant in some seats.0 -
Yes; as an 81 year old I hate to say things were better when I was young, as memory tends to be rose-tinted, but as far as public life is concerned, I'm sure they were.Beibheirli_C said:
I fear it already hasOldKingCole said:Having said that, yes, he is a ghastly man. I fear that public life in our country is going to get worse before it gets better.
0 -
This could def boost Labour in Cambridge - currently 13/8
https://twitter.com/cambslive/status/1194155366252236800?s=210 -
Sleep on and dream of loveMysticrose said:What is the late November doing
With the disturbance of the spring
And creatures of the summer heat,
And snowdrops writhing under feet
And hollyhocks that aim too high
Red into grey and tumble down
Late roses filled with early snow?
Thunder rolled by the rolling stars
Simulates triumphal cars
Deployed in constellated wars
Scorpion fights against the sun
Until the Sun and Moon go down
Comets weep and Leonids fly
Hunt the heavens and the plains
Whirled in a vortex that shall bring
The world to that destructive fire
Which burns before the ice-cap reigns
T.S. Eliot
From 'The Four Quartets'
Good morning all
Because it's the closest you will
Get to love
Poor twisted child
So ugly, so ugly
Poor twisted child
Oh hug me, oh hug me
One November
Spawned a monster
In the shape of this child
Who later cried :
But Jesus made me, so
Jesus save me from
Pity, sympathy
And people discussing me
A frame of useless limbs
What can make good
All the bad that's been done ?
And if the lights were out
Could you even bear
To kiss her full on the mouth
(or anywhere?)
Oh, poor twisted child
So ugly, so ugly
Poor twisted child
Oh hug me, oh hug me
One November
Spawned a monster
In the shape of this child
Who must remain
A hostage to kindness
And the wheels underneath her
A hostage to kindness
And the wheels underneath her
A symbol…
S.P. Morrissey0 -
Voters 'outraged by these deals' need to support Proportional Representation to get rid of the need for them.RochdalePioneers said:I disagree with anyone doing deals to stand down - you either win your argument with the electorate or you do not. The SNP grew to a massive party from a small base by building their narrative and supporters - if you need others to step aside to boost you then you haven't convinced enough people. And in a democracy what is democratic about a party not standing? Have seen a lot of LD/Green/BXP voters outraged by these deals on Twitter.
As for Brexit the thing not Brexit the Party, I read HYUFD bleating on about trade deals and wonder how we will spin reality when it arrives. The bigger you are the better the deal. Making ourselves smaller than our current trade value in the EU means that we get a worse deal not a better one.
I'm sure that eventually we will manage to replace all of the free trade deals that enthusiasts for free trade demand we walk away from. And all of those deals will be on worse terms because we will be smaller and more insignificant a market than the EU. Thats reality. FTA rampers are either stupid, or know that the people they are selling to are stupid. Either way, its dishonest.0 -
Why would they not want this?GMF said:This could def boost Labour in Cambridge - currently 13/8
https://twitter.com/cambslive/status/1194155366252236800?s=210 -
Roads are not green?Gallowgate said:
Why would they not want this?GMF said:This could def boost Labour in Cambridge - currently 13/8
https://twitter.com/cambslive/status/1194155366252236800?s=210 -
To defeat Farage, you have turned yourself into Farage. The victory is his.MarqueeMark said:
I am a Tory Brexiteer and think Farage a ghastly man.Mysticrose said:My late Mother was a Tory Remainer and thought Nigel Farage was "a ghastly man"
She would not have voted for anything that had the whiff of Farage.
But he is yesterday's ghastly man. He has been found out. He had no interest in Brexit - just in keeping his milch-cow soap box going. With the UK out of the EU, he really is nothing.
0 -
If Farage gets anything, let alone US Ambassadorship, out of standing down his candidates - then surely that is corruption.OldKingCole said:
Far be it from me to defend the man, but in fairness he did campaign, including spending his own money and, AIUI putting his marriage under considerable ........ too great ..... a strain for quite a while before people began to take him seriously.MarqueeMark said:
I am a Tory Brexiteer and think Farage a ghastly man.Mysticrose said:My late Mother was a Tory Remainer and thought Nigel Farage was "a ghastly man"
She would not have voted for anything that had the whiff of Farage.
But he is yesterday's ghastly man. He has been found out. He had no interest in Brexit - just in keeping his milch-cow soap box going. With the UK out of the EU, he really is nothing.
I believe too, that he could have made more money on the Metal Exchange if he hadn't turned away into politics.
I expect to see him as UK Ambassador to the US after Christmas, appointed by a triumphant, and triumphing, Boris.
Having said that, yes, he is a ghastly man. I fear that public life in our country is going to get worse before it gets better.0 -
A definite boon to Soviet spies moving between the two.Gallowgate said:
Why would they not want this?GMF said:This could def boost Labour in Cambridge - currently 13/8
https://twitter.com/cambslive/status/1194155366252236800?s=21
TSE will be along shortly to suggest that rather than a road between the two, they should build a wall...0 -
I was speaking to my brother in South Cambs. Both it and the city are going yellow he reckons. The science parks hate Brexit, and even though she is not standing, there is a lot of sympathy for her and against the Brexity bile and death threats that drove her out of politics.GMF said:This could def boost Labour in Cambridge - currently 13/8
https://twitter.com/cambslive/status/1194155366252236800?s=21
It would be interesting to know if @JosiasJessop agrees.0 -
Hopefully Labour can redirect the money to dualing the A1 north of Morpeth then.MaxPB said:
Roads are not green?Gallowgate said:
Why would they not want this?GMF said:This could def boost Labour in Cambridge - currently 13/8
https://twitter.com/cambslive/status/1194155366252236800?s=210 -
As I said early last week, Tory remain voters have to decide which is more important to them, being members of the EU or potentially being unable to afford their mortgages and seeing their pension funds trashed by Corbyn and MacDonnell.
Vote Tory = Get Johnson and move on with Brexit
Vote Labour = Get Corbyn
Vote LibDem = Get Corbyn
Vote Green = Get Corbyn
Vote PC = Get Corbyn
Vote SNP = Get Corbyn
Vote Brexit = risk getting Corbyn by default.
As long as the Tories keep plugging away at this, Boris should get his working majority. Let's see who is standing where on Friday morning once nominations have closed. Incidentally any last minute retirees due?0 -
This is my tip of the day. I don't think the markets have caught up with reality yet.Foxy said:
On the Sterling Gomez bust up. Liverpool are obvious favourites to win the title now and probably value at 1.48 on Betfair. Man City are 3.65, but the value is on Chelsea at 38 and Leicester at 36. Both teams are playing well, and are above Man City.
Liverpool has to implode to lose their lead, but as a team without European commitments, Leicester is the best value of these. We are playing well and have a good run of games until meeting Man City on 21st and Liverpool on 26th Dec. That Boxing day match is likely to be a tasty 6 pointer.
Leicester are also value in the Carabao Cup at 9. Possibly Guardiola will want some silverware, but more likely that he will field the reserves, as will Liverpool due to pressure of commitments.0 -
Cameron's mission is complete. He set out to see off the threat from UKIP. He has delivered The Tories leading our exit from the EU which he knew would be massively damaging, and the Tories adopting UKIP policies and ideals which he knew would be massively damaging to the party.Jonathan said:
To defeat Farage, you have turned yourself into Farage. The victory is his.MarqueeMark said:
I am a Tory Brexiteer and think Farage a ghastly man.Mysticrose said:My late Mother was a Tory Remainer and thought Nigel Farage was "a ghastly man"
She would not have voted for anything that had the whiff of Farage.
But he is yesterday's ghastly man. He has been found out. He had no interest in Brexit - just in keeping his milch-cow soap box going. With the UK out of the EU, he really is nothing.
Tories must be delighted that they had such a master tactician with a backbone of iron as a leader.0 -
Dura_Ace, thank you for that. Beautiful. Powerful.0
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SE Cambs too after as I reported to you last night the Tory PCC has suddenly resigned and is under investigation.Foxy said:
I was speaking to my brother in South Cambs. Both it and the city are going yellow he reckons. The science parks hate Brexit, and even though she is not standing, there is a lot of sympathy for her and against the Brexity bile and death threats that drove her out of politics.GMF said:This could def boost Labour in Cambridge - currently 13/8
https://twitter.com/cambslive/status/1194155366252236800?s=21
It would be interesting to know if @JosiasJessop agrees.0 -
There is no ’Deal’ with Farage.
Next.2 -
Or we could just vote for a narcissistic liar because he has a blue rosette stuck on his ill-fitting suit.NorthCadboll said:As I said early last week, Tory remain voters have to decide which is more important to them, being members of the EU or potentially being unable to afford their mortgages and seeing their pension funds trashed by Corbyn and MacDonnell.
Vote Tory = Get Johnson and move on with Brexit
Vote Labour = Get Corbyn
Vote LibDem = Get Corbyn
Vote Green = Get Corbyn
Vote PC = Get Corbyn
Vote SNP = Get Corbyn
Vote Brexit = risk getting Corbyn by default.
As long as the Tories keep plugging away at this, Boris should get his working majority. Let's see who is standing where on Friday morning once nominations have closed. Incidentally any last minute retirees due?0 -
Indeed.logical_song said:
Voters 'outraged by these deals' need to support Proportional Representation to get rid of the need for them.RochdalePioneers said:I disagree with anyone doing deals to stand down - you either win your argument with the electorate or you do not. The SNP grew to a massive party from a small base by building their narrative and supporters - if you need others to step aside to boost you then you haven't convinced enough people. And in a democracy what is democratic about a party not standing? Have seen a lot of LD/Green/BXP voters outraged by these deals on Twitter.
As for Brexit the thing not Brexit the Party, I read HYUFD bleating on about trade deals and wonder how we will spin reality when it arrives. The bigger you are the better the deal. Making ourselves smaller than our current trade value in the EU means that we get a worse deal not a better one.
I'm sure that eventually we will manage to replace all of the free trade deals that enthusiasts for free trade demand we walk away from. And all of those deals will be on worse terms because we will be smaller and more insignificant a market than the EU. Thats reality. FTA rampers are either stupid, or know that the people they are selling to are stupid. Either way, its dishonest.
What we have now is the two largest parties, insisting that they are the only realistic alternatives for government, led by serial rebels who are happy to get rid of any MP who doesn’t toe the line, also insisting implausibly that they lead broad churches.
And each relying on fear or hatred of the other to corral their reluctant voters.0 -
There may be no deal with Farage - there is however political capital in making it look like there was a deal.Casino_Royale said:There is no ’Deal’ with Farage.
Next.0 -
It is possible that you are wrong about this. Consider a possible UK-Canada trade deal.RochdalePioneers said:I'm sure that eventually we will manage to replace all of the free trade deals that enthusiasts for free trade demand we walk away from. And all of those deals will be on worse terms because we will be smaller and more insignificant a market than the EU. Thats reality. FTA rampers are either stupid, or know that the people they are selling to are stupid. Either way, its dishonest.
The UK's priorities will probably be on access for the services sector, particularly the City, and some other areas where we have particular strength, such as pharmaceuticals, satellite engineering. There's a whole bunch of things that other EU countries are bothered about, such as machine tools, say, which don't matter so much to us. So Canada could be able to get more of what it wants and we could be able to get more of what we want, at the same time, relative to the EU-Canada trade deal.
I don't say that it is likely, but it is possible.0 -
At he has not been offered any peerages to stand down....Casino_Royale said:There is no ’Deal’ with Farage.
Next. 0 -
Interesting tip.Foxy said:This is my tip of the day. I don't think the markets have caught up with reality yet.
Foxy said:On the Sterling Gomez bust up. Liverpool are obvious favourites to win the title now and probably value at 1.48 on Betfair. Man City are 3.65, but the value is on Chelsea at 38 and Leicester at 36. Both teams are playing well, and are above Man City.
Liverpool has to implode to lose their lead, but as a team without European commitments, Leicester is the best value of these. We are playing well and have a good run of games until meeting Man City on 21st and Liverpool on 26th Dec. That Boxing day match is likely to be a tasty 6 pointer.
Leicester are also value in the Carabao Cup at 9. Possibly Guardiola will want some silverware, but more likely that he will field the reserves, as will Liverpool due to pressure of commitments.
Also interesting is that Man City have actually had the easier of the fixture lists so far in the league between Liverpool and Man City. While Liverpool have an insane December fixturewise that is congestion due to the cups there are no big league games until meeting Leicester after Christmas [which will be the start of the second half of the season].
Liverpool have played already all of the 'Big 6' and Leicester already, albeit many of them at home.
Man City have only had to face so far Spurs [at home, drew] and Liverpool away at Anfield. They're still yet to face Chelsea, Arsenal, Man Utd and Leicester.0 -
Just a look back, but it does seem remarkable that the Commons didn't pass May's deal then try to add on a second referendum.
What were Remain MPs thinking would happen? Straight revocation never looked on the cards and even trying to instigate a second referendum without any deal passed looked very difficult to achieve.
Mind you, Conservatives lining up to back the incumbent were bloody daft too.0 -
Jonathan said:
To defeat Farage, you have turned yourself into Farage. The victory is his.MarqueeMark said:
I am a Tory Brexiteer and think Farage a ghastly man.Mysticrose said:My late Mother was a Tory Remainer and thought Nigel Farage was "a ghastly man"
She would not have voted for anything that had the whiff of Farage.
But he is yesterday's ghastly man. He has been found out. He had no interest in Brexit - just in keeping his milch-cow soap box going. With the UK out of the EU, he really is nothing.
How the hell do you figure it's possible to win, after becoming so convincing you're so thoroughly defeated you have no choice but to unilaterally throw in the towel and start cheerleading for your opponent?Jonathan said:
To defeat Farage, you have turned yourself into Farage. The victory is his.MarqueeMark said:
I am a Tory Brexiteer and think Farage a ghastly man.Mysticrose said:My late Mother was a Tory Remainer and thought Nigel Farage was "a ghastly man"
She would not have voted for anything that had the whiff of Farage.
But he is yesterday's ghastly man. He has been found out. He had no interest in Brexit - just in keeping his milch-cow soap box going. With the UK out of the EU, he really is nothing.
When the Berlin wall fell, the Soviet Union split up and started moving towards a free(r) market economy and free(r) elections, did you see that as the ultimate triumph of communism?0 -
Its politics. No more corrupt than Adonis, Warsi, or Shami being stuck in the Lords for "party" reasons.logical_song said:
If Farage gets anything, let alone US Ambassadorship, out of standing down his candidates - then surely that is corruption.OldKingCole said:
Far be it from me to defend the man, but in fairness he did campaign, including spending his own money and, AIUI putting his marriage under considerable ........ too great ..... a strain for quite a while before people began to take him seriously.MarqueeMark said:
I am a Tory Brexiteer and think Farage a ghastly man.Mysticrose said:My late Mother was a Tory Remainer and thought Nigel Farage was "a ghastly man"
She would not have voted for anything that had the whiff of Farage.
But he is yesterday's ghastly man. He has been found out. He had no interest in Brexit - just in keeping his milch-cow soap box going. With the UK out of the EU, he really is nothing.
I believe too, that he could have made more money on the Metal Exchange if he hadn't turned away into politics.
I expect to see him as UK Ambassador to the US after Christmas, appointed by a triumphant, and triumphing, Boris.
Having said that, yes, he is a ghastly man. I fear that public life in our country is going to get worse before it gets better.
Of course, that might be corrupt in itself.0 -
Almost all poetry is shit.Mysticrose said:Dura_Ace, thank you for that. Beautiful. Powerful.
That was no exception.0 -
As we can see from the reaction - a deal would have been a toxic stick to beat the blues with.Casino_Royale said:There is no ’Deal’ with Farage.
Next.
This a far better result for Boris.0 -
Spin. Lies.eek said:
There may be no deal with Farage - there is however political capital in making it look like there was a deal.Casino_Royale said:There is no ’Deal’ with Farage.
Next.
Will Remainers never learn that "political capital" bites them on the arse?0 -
According to the byline in Nick Boles Evening Standard piece I should vote Brexit Party !!!!0
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There has always been Project Far. Labour use it against the Tories when in power and the Tories use it against Labour when in power . Was it ever thus...0
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As we are discovering.eek said:
There may be no deal with Farage - there is however political capital in making it look like there was a deal.Casino_Royale said:There is no ’Deal’ with Farage.
Next.0 -
Lewis Hamiltons tribute to Princess Diana was glorious.Casino_Royale said:
Almost all poetry is shit.Mysticrose said:Dura_Ace, thank you for that. Beautiful. Powerful.
That was no exception.0 -
I don't think so either. The public may well think differently though. The UKIP takeover of the Tories is nearly complete.Casino_Royale said:There is no ’Deal’ with Farage.
Next.
It is No Deal at the end of Transition imo. BoZo has promised* no extension.
*though obviously his promises are worth nothing.0 -
So you'd vote for him if only he'd get a better-fitting suit?Beibheirli_C said:
Or we could just vote for a narcissistic liar because he has a blue rosette stuck on his ill-fitting suit.NorthCadboll said:As I said early last week, Tory remain voters have to decide which is more important to them, being members of the EU or potentially being unable to afford their mortgages and seeing their pension funds trashed by Corbyn and MacDonnell.
Vote Tory = Get Johnson and move on with Brexit
Vote Labour = Get Corbyn
Vote LibDem = Get Corbyn
Vote Green = Get Corbyn
Vote PC = Get Corbyn
Vote SNP = Get Corbyn
Vote Brexit = risk getting Corbyn by default.
As long as the Tories keep plugging away at this, Boris should get his working majority. Let's see who is standing where on Friday morning once nominations have closed. Incidentally any last minute retirees due?
Thought not.0 -
Because your existing networks are of huge help when putting together a campaign team and reaching voters, and you'd be mad to throw that away and try to start from scratch?Beibheirli_C said:
If I was going to stand as a PPC, my first step would be deleting all my social media and starting fresh with new profiles. There will always be something that others can pick on so why give them the opportunity?dr_spyn said:Thurrocks to the lot of you.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-essex-50383988
Lib Dem lancing the boil.0 -
Much as I loathe poetry, given the weather and poetical muse affecting PB this morning...
The Puddle by William Wordsworth
"I measured it from side to side
'Twas three feet long and two feet wide."
1 -
The thing about Johnson's lies is that they are not necessary. He was always going to be beat Corbyn. All that he is doing is storing up huge problems for himself and the country. It makes noi sense to me, except to the extent that Johnson cannot help himself - he is genuinely a congenital liar.Foxy said:
I don't think so either. The public may well think differently though. The UKIP takeover of the Tories is nearly complete.Casino_Royale said:There is no ’Deal’ with Farage.
Next.
It is No Deal at the end of Transition imo. BoZo has promised* no extension.
*though obviously his promises are worth nothing.
0 -
‘The truth is, Labour won this election not on socialism but on fear - fear of war, fear of unemployment, fear of wealth. What we need to do at the next election is make sure they have to fight not on fear but on Socialism, because then we can win.’SquareRoot said:There has always been Project Far. Labour use it against the Tories when in power and the Tories use it against Labour when in power . Was it ever thus...
Harold Macmillan, 1945.0 -
There weren't the numbers in the Commons for a referendum, except possibly at a point of crisis when there were no other alternatives. They were trying to strong-arm Remain Tories against no deal, for a deal and against a referendum into voting for a referendum to escape an impasse. The strategy failed.Morris_Dancer said:Just a look back, but it does seem remarkable that the Commons didn't pass May's deal then try to add on a second referendum.
What were Remain MPs thinking would happen? Straight revocation never looked on the cards and even trying to instigate a second referendum without any deal passed looked very difficult to achieve.
Mind you, Conservatives lining up to back the incumbent were bloody daft too.0 -
It does remind me of the criticisms Cameron made of Corbyn though - ‘do your tie up.’MarqueeMark said:
So you'd vote for him if only he'd get a better-fitting suit?Beibheirli_C said:
Or we could just vote for a narcissistic liar because he has a blue rosette stuck on his ill-fitting suit.NorthCadboll said:As I said early last week, Tory remain voters have to decide which is more important to them, being members of the EU or potentially being unable to afford their mortgages and seeing their pension funds trashed by Corbyn and MacDonnell.
Vote Tory = Get Johnson and move on with Brexit
Vote Labour = Get Corbyn
Vote LibDem = Get Corbyn
Vote Green = Get Corbyn
Vote PC = Get Corbyn
Vote SNP = Get Corbyn
Vote Brexit = risk getting Corbyn by default.
As long as the Tories keep plugging away at this, Boris should get his working majority. Let's see who is standing where on Friday morning once nominations have closed. Incidentally any last minute retirees due?
Thought not.
And of course, he did, so now instead of the scruffy Trot with the bad hairstyle people see Magic Grandpa looking like a retired stockbroker.0 -
'Best for Britain' has just posted on my Facebook page an announcement from someone claiming to represent the 'Independent Brexit party' saying he will NOT be standing down.
Wonder how alone he'll be. BBC East had a very discontented Brexit Party PPC on last night; he was all lined up to fight and I got the impression he didn't trust Boris.0 -
UKIP/BXP favoured zero immigration, No Deal, opposed same sex marriage, wanted a referendum on reintroducing the death penalty, wanted to slash foreign aid, to be militarily isolationist and denies climate change.Foxy said:
I don't think so either. The public may well think differently though. The UKIP takeover of the Tories is nearly complete.Casino_Royale said:There is no ’Deal’ with Farage.
Next.
It is No Deal at the end of Transition imo. BoZo has promised* no extension.
*though obviously his promises are worth nothing.
All of those positions are at odds with the Conservatives.1 -
In other news, anyone know of a good VPN for mobile that can fool iPlayer? I'm in Vietnam and I want to watch the latest episode of HDM before it gets spoiled for me.
I could obviously use my work one but it would probably get noticed by IT in about 4 seconds.0 -
There is a big, hulking agreement called NAFTA which stands in the way of that. And you have to factor in what we are giving up with by far our biggest export market to get that deal with Canada. Overall, it will be a net loss.OblitusSumMe said:
It is possible that you are wrong about this. Consider a possible UK-Canada trade deal.RochdalePioneers said:I'm sure that eventually we will manage to replace all of the free trade deals that enthusiasts for free trade demand we walk away from. And all of those deals will be on worse terms because we will be smaller and more insignificant a market than the EU. Thats reality. FTA rampers are either stupid, or know that the people they are selling to are stupid. Either way, its dishonest.
The UK's priorities will probably be on access for the services sector, particularly the City, and some other areas where we have particular strength, such as pharmaceuticals, satellite engineering. There's a whole bunch of things that other EU countries are bothered about, such as machine tools, say, which don't matter so much to us. So Canada could be able to get more of what it wants and we could be able to get more of what we want, at the same time, relative to the EU-Canada trade deal.
I don't say that it is likely, but it is possible.
0 -
PR gets rid of shady deals and stitch-ups between parties? You're in for a nasty shock in the aftermath of the first election held under it, assuming we do switch.logical_song said:
Voters 'outraged by these deals' need to support Proportional Representation to get rid of the need for them.RochdalePioneers said:I disagree with anyone doing deals to stand down - you either win your argument with the electorate or you do not. The SNP grew to a massive party from a small base by building their narrative and supporters - if you need others to step aside to boost you then you haven't convinced enough people. And in a democracy what is democratic about a party not standing? Have seen a lot of LD/Green/BXP voters outraged by these deals on Twitter.
As for Brexit the thing not Brexit the Party, I read HYUFD bleating on about trade deals and wonder how we will spin reality when it arrives. The bigger you are the better the deal. Making ourselves smaller than our current trade value in the EU means that we get a worse deal not a better one.
I'm sure that eventually we will manage to replace all of the free trade deals that enthusiasts for free trade demand we walk away from. And all of those deals will be on worse terms because we will be smaller and more insignificant a market than the EU. Thats reality. FTA rampers are either stupid, or know that the people they are selling to are stupid. Either way, its dishonest.
One of the better arguments for FPTP is that it (usually) forces these deals to happen in advance of the poll, rather than after, thus increasing transparency. Brexit has mucked some of this up on both sides of the political divide.0 -
Man City will struggle until Ederson is back, Liverpool would have to lose a key player like Allison or Salah to injury to blow it now, but with all those games, a definite possibility.Philip_Thompson said:
Interesting tip.Foxy said:This is my tip of the day. I don't think the markets have caught up with reality yet.
Foxy said:On the Sterling Gomez bust up. Liverpool are obvious favourites to win the title now and probably value at 1.48 on Betfair. Man City are 3.65, but the value is on Chelsea at 38 and Leicester at 36. Both teams are playing well, and are above Man City.
Liverpool has to implode to lose their lead, but as a team without European commitments, Leicester is the best value of these. We are playing well and have a good run of games until meeting Man City on 21st and Liverpool on 26th Dec. That Boxing day match is likely to be a tasty 6 pointer.
Leicester are also value in the Carabao Cup at 9. Possibly Guardiola will want some silverware, but more likely that he will field the reserves, as will Liverpool due to pressure of commitments.
Also interesting is that Man City have actually had the easier of the fixture lists so far in the league between Liverpool and Man City. While Liverpool have an insane December fixturewise that is congestion due to the cups there are no big league games until meeting Leicester after Christmas [which will be the start of the second half of the season].
Liverpool have played already all of the 'Big 6' and Leicester already, albeit many of them at home.
Man City have only had to face so far Spurs [at home, drew] and Liverpool away at Anfield. They're still yet to face Chelsea, Arsenal, Man Utd and Leicester.
Leicester have some risk with no real back up for Vardy, but he is a tough wirey sod who has missed very little with injury in 8 years. We also have £80 million still to spend of the Maguire money in the Jan transfer season. Chelsea have to sit it out.0 -
So they’re not all completely thick, then?OldKingCole said:'I got the impression he didn't trust Boris.
0 -
Obviously for some PPC's, not throwing it away was a bad decision.Endillion said:
Because your existing networks are of huge help when putting together a campaign team and reaching voters, and you'd be mad to throw that away and try to start from scratch?Beibheirli_C said:
If I was going to stand as a PPC, my first step would be deleting all my social media and starting fresh with new profiles. There will always be something that others can pick on so why give them the opportunity?dr_spyn said:Thurrocks to the lot of you.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-essex-50383988
Lib Dem lancing the boil.
It is easy enough to clear out your social media without losing contacts. Many people do it.
Besides, you do not clear it out today and stand as a PPC tomorrow. Getting elected takes a long time, so once you decide to do it, clean up your profile and keep it clean in the time you spend getting through the PPC process.0 -
May presumed she was always going to beat Corbyn. Look where that nearly landed us.SouthamObserver said:
The thing about Johnson's lies is that they are not necessary. He was always going to be beat Corbyn. All that he is doing is storing up huge problems for himself and the country. It makes noi sense to me, except to the extent that Johnson cannot help himself - he is genuinely a congenital liar.Foxy said:
I don't think so either. The public may well think differently though. The UKIP takeover of the Tories is nearly complete.Casino_Royale said:There is no ’Deal’ with Farage.
Next.
It is No Deal at the end of Transition imo. BoZo has promised* no extension.
*though obviously his promises are worth nothing.0 -
That's garbage. Nations can and do sign more than one trade agreement.SouthamObserver said:
There is a big, hulking agreement called NAFTA which stands in the way of that. And you have to factor in what we are giving up with by far our biggest export market to get that deal with Canada. Overall, it will be a net loss.OblitusSumMe said:
It is possible that you are wrong about this. Consider a possible UK-Canada trade deal.RochdalePioneers said:I'm sure that eventually we will manage to replace all of the free trade deals that enthusiasts for free trade demand we walk away from. And all of those deals will be on worse terms because we will be smaller and more insignificant a market than the EU. Thats reality. FTA rampers are either stupid, or know that the people they are selling to are stupid. Either way, its dishonest.
The UK's priorities will probably be on access for the services sector, particularly the City, and some other areas where we have particular strength, such as pharmaceuticals, satellite engineering. There's a whole bunch of things that other EU countries are bothered about, such as machine tools, say, which don't matter so much to us. So Canada could be able to get more of what it wants and we could be able to get more of what we want, at the same time, relative to the EU-Canada trade deal.
I don't say that it is likely, but it is possible.0 -
I've got you, my guy...Casino_Royale said:
Almost all poetry is shit.Mysticrose said:Dura_Ace, thank you for that. Beautiful. Powerful.
That was no exception.
Of all the trees that grow so fair,
Old England to adorn,
Greater are none beneath the Sun,
Than Oak, and Ash, and Thorn.
Sing Oak, and Ash, and Thorn, good sirs,
(All of a Midsummer morn!)
Surely we sing no little thing,
In Oak, and Ash, and Thorn!
Oak of the Clay lived many a day,
Or ever AEneas began.
Ash of the Loam was a lady at home,
When Brut was an outlaw man.
Thorn of the Down saw New Troy Town
(From which was London born);
Witness hereby the ancientry
Of Oak, and Ash, and Thorn!
Yew that is old in churchyard-mould,
He breedeth a mighty bow.
Alder for shoes do wise men choose,
And beech for cups also.
But when ye have killed, and your bowl is spilled,
And your shoes are clean outworn,
Back ye must speed for all that ye need,
To Oak, and Ash, and Thorn!
Ellum she hateth mankind, and waiteth
Till every gust be laid,
To drop a limb on the head of him
That anyway trusts her shade:
But whether a lad be sober or sad,
Or mellow with ale from the horn,
He will take no wrong when he lieth along
'Neath Oak, and Ash, and Thorn!
Oh, do not tell the Priest our plight,
Or he would call it a sin;
But - we have been out in the woods all night,
A-conjuring Summer in!
And we bring you news by word of mouth-
Good news for cattle and corn-
Now is the Sun come up from the South,
With Oak, and Ash, and Thorn!
Sing Oak, and Ash, and Thorn, good sirs
(All of a Midsummer morn):
England shall bide ti11 Judgment Tide,
By Oak, and Ash, and Thorn!
J.R. Kipling
0 -
Were at odds with the Conservatives. Where do you think the people that now control the party - the Raabs, the Patels, the Rees Moggs, the Bridgens, the Francois, etc - stand on those issues? There may be nuanced differences in some areas, but the direction of travel is clearly a shared one.Casino_Royale said:
UKIP/BXP favoured zero immigration, No Deal, opposed same sex marriage, wanted a referendum on reintroducing the death penalty, wanted to slash foreign aid, to be militarily isolationist and denies climate change.Foxy said:
I don't think so either. The public may well think differently though. The UKIP takeover of the Tories is nearly complete.Casino_Royale said:There is no ’Deal’ with Farage.
Next.
It is No Deal at the end of Transition imo. BoZo has promised* no extension.
*though obviously his promises are worth nothing.
All of those positions are at odds with the Conservatives.
1 -
NAFTA doesn't have any bearing on services standards recognition between the UK and Canada. NAFTA becomes a factor for agricultural and goods alignment, but no one is saying we should have alignment with Canada, just recognition of their standards, many of which are higher than the NAFTA baseline as set out by the US (and usually set to Mexican standards).SouthamObserver said:
There is a big, hulking agreement called NAFTA which stands in the way of that. And you have to factor in what we are giving up with by far our biggest export market to get that deal with Canada. Overall, it will be a net loss.OblitusSumMe said:
It is possible that you are wrong about this. Consider a possible UK-Canada trade deal.RochdalePioneers said:I'm sure that eventually we will manage to replace all of the free trade deals that enthusiasts for free trade demand we walk away from. And all of those deals will be on worse terms because we will be smaller and more insignificant a market than the EU. Thats reality. FTA rampers are either stupid, or know that the people they are selling to are stupid. Either way, its dishonest.
The UK's priorities will probably be on access for the services sector, particularly the City, and some other areas where we have particular strength, such as pharmaceuticals, satellite engineering. There's a whole bunch of things that other EU countries are bothered about, such as machine tools, say, which don't matter so much to us. So Canada could be able to get more of what it wants and we could be able to get more of what we want, at the same time, relative to the EU-Canada trade deal.
I don't say that it is likely, but it is possible.0 -
They can, but they all have to be compliant with each other. That's one of the reasons why the UK/EU deal is going to be so complicated. It has to be drawn up in a way that allows the UK to do other meaningful deals while protecting the Single Market. Any deal Canada does withthe UK will have to be compliant with its NAFTA obligations so that Canada does not become a backdoor for the UK into the US.Philip_Thompson said:
That's garbage. Nations can and do sign more than one trade agreement.SouthamObserver said:
There is a big, hulking agreement called NAFTA which stands in the way of that. And you have to factor in what we are giving up with by far our biggest export market to get that deal with Canada. Overall, it will be a net loss.OblitusSumMe said:
It is possible that you are wrong about this. Consider a possible UK-Canada trade deal.RochdalePioneers said:I'm sure that eventually we will manage to replace all of the free trade deals that enthusiasts for free trade demand we walk away from. And all of those deals will be on worse terms because we will be smaller and more insignificant a market than the EU. Thats reality. FTA rampers are either stupid, or know that the people they are selling to are stupid. Either way, its dishonest.
The UK's priorities will probably be on access for the services sector, particularly the City, and some other areas where we have particular strength, such as pharmaceuticals, satellite engineering. There's a whole bunch of things that other EU countries are bothered about, such as machine tools, say, which don't matter so much to us. So Canada could be able to get more of what it wants and we could be able to get more of what we want, at the same time, relative to the EU-Canada trade deal.
I don't say that it is likely, but it is possible.
0 -
I think all of those will be in tune with the incoming Tory cohort. Think of a party consisting of Esther McVey wannabes.Casino_Royale said:
UKIP/BXP favoured zero immigration, No Deal, opposed same sex marriage, wanted a referendum on reintroducing the death penalty, wanted to slash foreign aid, to be militarily isolationist and denies climate change.Foxy said:
I don't think so either. The public may well think differently though. The UKIP takeover of the Tories is nearly complete.Casino_Royale said:There is no ’Deal’ with Farage.
Next.
It is No Deal at the end of Transition imo. BoZo has promised* no extension.
*though obviously his promises are worth nothing.
All of those positions are at odds with the Conservatives.0 -
Boris has successfully bullied Farage here. Good optics for the PM.GMF said:
As we can see from the reaction - a deal would have been a toxic stick to beat the blues with.Casino_Royale said:There is no ’Deal’ with Farage.
Next.
This a far better result for Boris.0 -
So you are saying that the only way to beat Corbyn is to lie. That is not going to end well for either the Tories or the UK, Philip.Philip_Thompson said:
May presumed she was always going to beat Corbyn. Look where that nearly landed us.SouthamObserver said:
The thing about Johnson's lies is that they are not necessary. He was always going to be beat Corbyn. All that he is doing is storing up huge problems for himself and the country. It makes noi sense to me, except to the extent that Johnson cannot help himself - he is genuinely a congenital liar.Foxy said:
I don't think so either. The public may well think differently though. The UKIP takeover of the Tories is nearly complete.Casino_Royale said:There is no ’Deal’ with Farage.
Next.
It is No Deal at the end of Transition imo. BoZo has promised* no extension.
*though obviously his promises are worth nothing.
0 -
Quite right too. Completely incompatible with any policy of carbon neutrality.GMF said:This could def boost Labour in Cambridge - currently 13/8
https://twitter.com/cambslive/status/1194155366252236800?s=210 -
NordVPNMaxPB said:In other news, anyone know of a good VPN for mobile that can fool iPlayer? I'm in Vietnam and I want to watch the latest episode of HDM before it gets spoiled for me.
I could obviously use my work one but it would probably get noticed by IT in about 4 seconds.0 -
No they don't. We can require a higher level of standards than Canada are obliged by NAFTA. For example, Canada doesn't chlorinate chicken because farming standards are higher.SouthamObserver said:
They can, but they all have to be compliant with each other. That's one of the reasons why the UK/EU deal is going to be so complicated. It has to be drawn up in a way that allows the UK to do other meaningful deals while protecting the Single Market. Any deal Canada does withthe UK will have to be compliant with its NAFTA obligations so that Canada does not become a backdoor for the UK into the US.Philip_Thompson said:
That's garbage. Nations can and do sign more than one trade agreement.SouthamObserver said:
There is a big, hulking agreement called NAFTA which stands in the way of that. And you have to factor in what we are giving up with by far our biggest export market to get that deal with Canada. Overall, it will be a net loss.OblitusSumMe said:
It is possible that you are wrong about this. Consider a possible UK-Canada trade deal.RochdalePioneers said:I'm sure that eventually we will manage to replace all of the free trade deals that enthusiasts for free trade demand we walk away from. And all of those deals will be on worse terms because we will be smaller and more insignificant a market than the EU. Thats reality. FTA rampers are either stupid, or know that the people they are selling to are stupid. Either way, its dishonest.
The UK's priorities will probably be on access for the services sector, particularly the City, and some other areas where we have particular strength, such as pharmaceuticals, satellite engineering. There's a whole bunch of things that other EU countries are bothered about, such as machine tools, say, which don't matter so much to us. So Canada could be able to get more of what it wants and we could be able to get more of what we want, at the same time, relative to the EU-Canada trade deal.
I don't say that it is likely, but it is possible.0 -
Of course it does. Any deal between the UK and Canada will have to be compliant with this:MaxPB said:
NAFTA doesn't have any bearing on services standards recognition between the UK and Canada. NAFTA becomes a factor for agricultural and goods alignment, but no one is saying we should have alignment with Canada, just recognition of their standards, many of which are higher than the NAFTA baseline as set out by the US (and usually set to Mexican standards).SouthamObserver said:
There is a big, hulking agreement called NAFTA which stands in the way of that. And you have to factor in what we are giving up with by far our biggest export market to get that deal with Canada. Overall, it will be a net loss.OblitusSumMe said:
It is possible that you are wrong about this. Consider a possible UK-Canada trade deal.RochdalePioneers said:I'm sure that eventually we will manage to replace all of the free trade deals that enthusiasts for free trade demand we walk away from. And all of those deals will be on worse terms because we will be smaller and more insignificant a market than the EU. Thats reality. FTA rampers are either stupid, or know that the people they are selling to are stupid. Either way, its dishonest.
The UK's priorities will probably be on access for the services sector, particularly the City, and some other areas where we have particular strength, such as pharmaceuticals, satellite engineering. There's a whole bunch of things that other EU countries are bothered about, such as machine tools, say, which don't matter so much to us. So Canada could be able to get more of what it wants and we could be able to get more of what we want, at the same time, relative to the EU-Canada trade deal.
I don't say that it is likely, but it is possible.
https://www.nafta-sec-alena.org/Home/Texts-of-the-Agreement/North-American-Free-Trade-Agreement?mvid=1&secid=7684fdb8-1784-4b39-b068-1b9a13952814
0 -
What is this deal of which you speak?
What we saw was Farage retreating from the field in exchange for.....nothing.0 -
I have voted Tory in the past and agree Farage is vileBeibheirli_C said:I have voted Tory in the past and I too think Farage is vile.
Personally, I wish Trump would make Nigel an offer he could not refuse and take him off to the USA.
This former-Tory voter will either abstaining or voting LD. In my case voting LD will have much the same effect as my current MP's votes do not need to be counted - they just weigh them by the kilo
If he was a senior Tory politician or in coalition with them I’d have grave doubts about voting for them
As far as we know he has stepped down in a bunch of seats for no return
So for voting purposes - unless something comes out before the election - there should be no impact. If terms of an unsavoury deal are released later that may affect the future1 -
Any bookies offering odds on Farage getting a peerage/knighthood in the next 14 months?0
-
Where are these BXP policies published?Casino_Royale said:
UKIP/BXP favoured zero immigration, No Deal, opposed same sex marriage, wanted a referendum on reintroducing the death penalty, wanted to slash foreign aid, to be militarily isolationist and denies climate change.Foxy said:
I don't think so either. The public may well think differently though. The UKIP takeover of the Tories is nearly complete.Casino_Royale said:There is no ’Deal’ with Farage.
Next.
It is No Deal at the end of Transition imo. BoZo has promised* no extension.
*though obviously his promises are worth nothing.
All of those positions are at odds with the Conservatives.0 -
Long-time Cambridge resident here. The LibDems are certainly favourites due to the strong remain vote. However I wouldn't write of Labour at this stage, sure they were trounced in the Euros but managed to get the largest share of the vote by some margin at the 2019 locals.Foxy said:
I was speaking to my brother in South Cambs. Both it and the city are going yellow he reckons. The science parks hate Brexit, and even though she is not standing, there is a lot of sympathy for her and against the Brexity bile and death threats that drove her out of politics.GMF said:This could def boost Labour in Cambridge - currently 13/8
https://twitter.com/cambslive/status/1194155366252236800?s=21
It would be interesting to know if @JosiasJessop agrees.
Labour's opposition to the Cambridge-Oxford expressway road scheme won't make the slightest difference because most people haven't heard of it, and of the remainers that have, none of them are going to vote Labour because of it, in fact half of them would probably be in favour of the scheme.0 -
Bullied? You sure? I had another b word in mind. However Farage was on BBC earlier saying he'd been offered a peerage 'several times' but he'd always refused.Pulpstar said:
Boris has successfully bullied Farage here. Good optics for the PM.GMF said:
As we can see from the reaction - a deal would have been a toxic stick to beat the blues with.Casino_Royale said:There is no ’Deal’ with Farage.
Next.
This a far better result for Boris.0 -
Jezza does dress well now, with a genuine stylishness. I wonder if his inner self has had a makeover too. Clothes maketh man.ydoethur said:
It does remind me of the criticisms Cameron made of Corbyn though - ‘do your tie up.’MarqueeMark said:
So you'd vote for him if only he'd get a better-fitting suit?Beibheirli_C said:
Or we could just vote for a narcissistic liar because he has a blue rosette stuck on his ill-fitting suit.NorthCadboll said:As I said early last week, Tory remain voters have to decide which is more important to them, being members of the EU or potentially being unable to afford their mortgages and seeing their pension funds trashed by Corbyn and MacDonnell.
Vote Tory = Get Johnson and move on with Brexit
Vote Labour = Get Corbyn
Vote LibDem = Get Corbyn
Vote Green = Get Corbyn
Vote PC = Get Corbyn
Vote SNP = Get Corbyn
Vote Brexit = risk getting Corbyn by default.
As long as the Tories keep plugging away at this, Boris should get his working majority. Let's see who is standing where on Friday morning once nominations have closed. Incidentally any last minute retirees due?
Thought not.
And of course, he did, so now instead of the scruffy Trot with the bad hairstyle people see Magic Grandpa looking like a retired stockbroker.0 -
Why the 0.424 multiple?MattW said:Drilling down through the virtual Venn Diagram.
Lord Ashcroft says that 25% of remainers in 2016 voted Tory in 2017.
And the Tory voteshare was 42% in 2017.
And Mike has that 31% of Tory Remainers from 2017 are saying they are going elsewhere.
So assuming everything being equal and ignoring distribution, I make that .25 * .424 * .31 percent of the Electorate being Tory Remainers going elsewhere.
Or 3.3% of the voters in this case. 3.2% switching Tory -> LD. 0.1% switching Tory -> Lab.
Significant?
IMO that depends on distribution.
What does the poll show for Lab Leave voters going Tory?
Isn’t it 25% of Remainers voted Tory if which 31% (ie 7.5% of Remainers) are considering their options
Hence 7.5% * 480 -
The pie chart of Lab leavers would be interesting to see0
-
Look at what is covered. It's even more sparse than what the EU covers in the single market for services. Again, it's not about alignment it is about each country recognising the other's standards.SouthamObserver said:
Of course it does. Any deal between the UK and Canada will have to be compliant with this:MaxPB said:
NAFTA doesn't have any bearing on services standards recognition between the UK and Canada. NAFTA becomes a factor for agricultural and goods alignment, but no one is saying we should have alignment with Canada, just recognition of their standards, many of which are higher than the NAFTA baseline as set out by the US (and usually set to Mexican standards).SouthamObserver said:
There is a big, hulking agreement called NAFTA which stands in the way of that. And you have to factor in what we are giving up with by far our biggest export market to get that deal with Canada. Overall, it will be a net loss.OblitusSumMe said:
It is possible that you are wrong about this. Consider a possible UK-Canada trade deal.RochdalePioneers said:I'm sure that eventually we will manage to replace all of the free trade deals that enthusiasts for free trade demand we walk away from. And all of those deals will be on worse terms because we will be smaller and more insignificant a market than the EU. Thats reality. FTA rampers are either stupid, or know that the people they are selling to are stupid. Either way, its dishonest.
The UK's priorities will probably be on access for the services sector, particularly the City, and some other areas where we have particular strength, such as pharmaceuticals, satellite engineering. There's a whole bunch of things that other EU countries are bothered about, such as machine tools, say, which don't matter so much to us. So Canada could be able to get more of what it wants and we could be able to get more of what we want, at the same time, relative to the EU-Canada trade deal.
I don't say that it is likely, but it is possible.
https://www.nafta-sec-alena.org/Home/Texts-of-the-Agreement/North-American-Free-Trade-Agreement?mvid=1&secid=7684fdb8-1784-4b39-b068-1b9a13952814
In the last round Canada was more than happy to open up the services discussion but didn't because the EU don't have much of a strategy, once we're into the transition period those are the conversations we will be having, but not just with Canada, with loads of countries who want favourable access to the UKs internal market for goods.0 -
Don't be stupid of course it is a deal.asjohnstone said:Is the a deal or has the BXP did this of it's own accord ?
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