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New YouGov Times pollCON 36% =LAB 21% -2LD 18% =BRX 13% +1GRN 6% =
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Anyone there?0
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Long way to go. surely one of the most unpredictable elections ever, with so many reasons for traditional blocs of support to diminish in size and shift around. Swings back and forth all over the place1
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3rd. Like LabourWulfrun_Phil said:Anyone there?
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Very unpredictable and nothing can be counted on yet.0
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Re last tweet...labour are already polling in single figures with jews...there arent many more votes they can lose.0
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There was a massive change in poppyness starting about 20 years ago.Philip_Thompson said:
The poppy is about remembrance and the tragedy of war, on remembrance day we say things like "never again" and "lest we forget" . . . if you think that is militaristic that is beyond me.Stocky said:Dura_Ace said: "I am trying to recall when this fucking pointless shit became so pervasive. I think it was after Iraq II.
I'll salute anybody who refuses to wear one."
Thank you Dura Ace. About time someone talked some sense over this. I refuse to wear one too. What on earth must visitors to the UK think of our obsession with this militaristic shit.
As for when it became pervasive, I remember it all my life. It was just as pervasiving in my memory in the 80s and 90s.
Poppies are everywhere now, poppy sculptures, pop up poppy shops, ww2 bombers dropping poppies (what is that even supposed to mean). And the double silence as well, there used to be a silence on rememberemce Sunday. Then, in the early 00s 'the nation' started having a silence on the 11th as well.
As someone who marched in remerenace day parades, carried the flag, laid the wreath, say in the remembrance day services it is all rather superficial yet oppressive these days.0 -
Labour are never going to poll as low as 21%. Even useless gordon got 29% and labours hard left platform does now have a decent audience given the way income etc has stagnated for lower middle classes over past 10-15 years.0
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Especially not in Maidenhead. Is Theresa May standing btw?FrancisUrquhart said:Re last tweet...labour are already polling in single figures with jews...there arent many more votes they can lose.
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FPT
It wouldn't surprise me if current BXP splits more to Lab than Tory if BXP don't stand. Tory-inclined Leavers have probably already mostly returned to the Tory Party. I imagine rump BXP voters include former Labour voters who would 'die in a ditch' before voting Tory - if BXP don't stand across the country I would not bet on that helping the Tories!Barnesian said:
And where the BXP vote goes where there is no BXP candidate. I'd like to see some polling on that.AndyJS said:
The next major event will be whether or not Farage decides to contest only a small number of seats.Barnesian said:The latest two polls (Survation and YouGov) together make little difference to the EMA. A slight movement away from Labour.
Con 34.9% (-)
Lab 24.4% (-0.2)
LD 18.3% (+0.1)
BXP 12.2 (+0.1)
Con 312 (+2)
Lab 222(-2)
LD 46 (-)
I assume it is a mixture of ex-Tories who are unhappy with the Johnson deal, ex-Lab who are strong leavers or just pissed off and ex-UKIP voters.
My current guess is the current 12% BXP share splits 4% Tory, 4% Lab, and 4% UKIP/NV - so BXP absence is a wash with regard to Tory and Labour.0 -
Right, YouGov's MRP polling may be more enlighteningFrancisUrquhart said:Labour are never going to poll as low as 21%. Even useless gordon got 29% and labours hard left platform does now have a decent audience given the way income etc has stagnated for lower middle classes over past 10-15 years.
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Any idea when the bookies will pay out on a December / 2019 election?0
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I don't think that's either militarisation or condemning anyone, its just that we are more dramatic about everything we do nowadays: whether that be poppies, Hallowe'en, Christmas, Easter, protesting, politics, our TV, sports, whatever. People get more engaged in everything they do and make a bigger deal about it all.Alistair said:
There was a massive change in poppyness starting about 20 years ago.Philip_Thompson said:
The poppy is about remembrance and the tragedy of war, on remembrance day we say things like "never again" and "lest we forget" . . . if you think that is militaristic that is beyond me.Stocky said:Dura_Ace said: "I am trying to recall when this fucking pointless shit became so pervasive. I think it was after Iraq II.
I'll salute anybody who refuses to wear one."
Thank you Dura Ace. About time someone talked some sense over this. I refuse to wear one too. What on earth must visitors to the UK think of our obsession with this militaristic shit.
As for when it became pervasive, I remember it all my life. It was just as pervasiving in my memory in the 80s and 90s.
Poppies are everywhere now, poppy sculptures, pop up poppy shops, ww2 bombers dropping poppies (what is that even supposed to mean). And the double silence as well, there used to be a silence on rememberemce Sunday. Then, in the early 00s 'the nation' started having a silence on the 11th as well.
As someone who marched in remerenace day parades, carried the flag, laid the wreath, say in the remembrance day services it is all rather superficial yet oppressive these days.0 -
The voter registration surge continues.
177,000 added yesterday .
Over 140, 000 of those under 44.
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Probaby when Parliament is dissolved? Has the Act got Royal Assent yet?gambit said:Any idea when the bookies will pay out on a December / 2019 election?
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I'm in both of those numbers. I moved house earlier this year and never bothered to re-register until yesterday.nico67 said:The voter registration surge continues.
177,000 added yesterday .
Over 140, 000 of those under 44.0 -
Looks like it. She has been re-adopted and the Mays were out recently canvassing for the Riverside by-election.DecrepitJohnL said:
Especially not in Maidenhead. Is Theresa May standing btw?FrancisUrquhart said:Re last tweet...labour are already polling in single figures with jews...there arent many more votes they can lose.
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It basically rests on whether Labour can squeeze the Lib Dems (by going harder left) or whether the Lib Dems can fight Labour (by being harder remain).FrancisUrquhart said:Labour are never going to poll as low as 21%. Even useless gordon got 29% and labours hard left platform does now have a decent audience given the way income etc has stagnated for lower middle classes over past 10-15 years.
Tories may lose votes to Brexit but given the lukewarm start and talk of standing aside in some seats, I'm not sure how big an effect that will be.
Outside of any black swans, the Tory share will behave like 2017 - it ended up pretty much back where it was when the election was called.
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/e5/Opinion_polling_UK_2020_election_short_axis.png0 -
Spelling, Mike?
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Happy Brexit day everyone!!
I hope you're all gearing up for the riot we were promised. When does it start? I've just got to finish hammering these nails into my baseball bat.0 -
You [What] Gov!!!!!!!
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This is an open goal for the LDs if ever there was one.Philip_Thompson said:Very unpredictable and nothing can be counted on yet.
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Went for Royal Assent yesterday evening iirc.Philip_Thompson said:
Probaby when Parliament is dissolved? Has the Act got Royal Assent yet?gambit said:Any idea when the bookies will pay out on a December / 2019 election?
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"General Election latest news: Corbyn to use election speech to attack entrepreneurs, as senior rabbi urges tactical votes against Labour."
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/31/brexit-general-election-news-latest-boris-johnson-jeremy-corbyn/
Headline must win some sort of prize for innuendo.0 -
"Corbyn to use election speech to attack entrepreneurs"
yeah, what have .. entrepreneurs .. ever done for us!0 -
Where do these numbers get published?nico67 said:The voter registration surge continues.
177,000 added yesterday .
Over 140, 000 of those under 44.
I understand we are attending Chesterfield College next few days to try and drive Registrations.0 -
Is the Speaker Election postponed to after the election or are we going to get the farce of a new speaker for 1 day?0
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We're trying to make a public-spirited attempt to distract potential rioters with an argument about poppy-related demonisation. By the time the exchange of anecdotes has finished we'll be well past the window of grievance and onto the next do-or-die date.Anorak said:Happy Brexit day everyone!!
I hope you're all gearing up for the riot we were promised. When does it start? I've just got to finish hammering these nails into my baseball bat.1 -
https://twitter.com/DavidLammy/status/1189819227345170432?s=20
They told us we would leave...and we didn't....I am dead angry about that, so what we need is more delay and another vote in 6-12 months. Certainly an interesting message.1 -
I’m on iPad so can’t link but if you put dashboard voter registration uk into your search engine you can find lots of info .bigjohnowls said:
Where do these numbers get published?nico67 said:The voter registration surge continues.
177,000 added yesterday .
Over 140, 000 of those under 44.
I understand we are attending Chesterfield College next few days to try and drive Registrations.0 -
TEST-1
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YesDecrepitJohnL said:
Especially not in Maidenhead. Is Theresa May standing btw?FrancisUrquhart said:Re last tweet...labour are already polling in single figures with jews...there arent many more votes they can lose.
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Corbyn`s resignation may come after a GE defeat. Due to this what are PBers` thoughts about the Next Labour Leader market?
Seems to me that the MPs that head the betting, with the possible exception of Starmer, lack credibility as potential leaders.
Further down the field Cooper is 20/1, but I guessing is hampered by the make-up of the Labour membership. It would be useful to know, if anyone has insight on this, what the hard left/soft left balance is in the membership, particularly after the raft of membership leavers that has been reported.
Further down the field still, Benn stands out to me as a potential leader - but I haven`t confidence to back him, even at 66/1.0 -
Do your students know it is?Fysics_Teacher said:TEST
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And it's not what those who actually lived through the war would have wanted IMO. I grew up in the 1970s when anyone over about 35 could remember the war but it was rarely mentioned. Most people saw it as a terrible experience best left in the past. I cannot remember ever wearing a poppy or attending an organised remembrance event at school. I learned recently - 50 years later - that one of my teachers had escaped from the Nazis on one of the kindertransports and all her family perished in the holocaust. This came as a complete surprise to me, these events were just not talked about at that time.Alistair said:
There was a massive change in poppyness starting about 20 years ago.Philip_Thompson said:
The poppy is about remembrance and the tragedy of war, on remembrance day we say things like "never again" and "lest we forget" . . . if you think that is militaristic that is beyond me.Stocky said:Dura_Ace said: "I am trying to recall when this fucking pointless shit became so pervasive. I think it was after Iraq II.
I'll salute anybody who refuses to wear one."
Thank you Dura Ace. About time someone talked some sense over this. I refuse to wear one too. What on earth must visitors to the UK think of our obsession with this militaristic shit.
As for when it became pervasive, I remember it all my life. It was just as pervasiving in my memory in the 80s and 90s.
Poppies are everywhere now, poppy sculptures, pop up poppy shops, ww2 bombers dropping poppies (what is that even supposed to mean). And the double silence as well, there used to be a silence on rememberemce Sunday. Then, in the early 00s 'the nation' started having a silence on the 11th as well.
As someone who marched in remerenace day parades, carried the flag, laid the wreath, say in the remembrance day services it is all rather superficial yet oppressive these days.1 -
They will - like the LibDems - be under big pressure to go for a woman. I wouldn't back Starmer or Benn for that reason.Stocky said:Corbyn`s resignation may come after a GE defeat. Due to this what are PBers` thoughts about the Next Labour Leader market?
Seems to me that the MPs that head the betting, with the possible exception of Starmer, lack credibility as potential leaders.
Further down the field Cooper is 20/1, but I guessing is hampered by the make-up of the Labour membership. It would be useful to know, if anyone has insight on this, what the hard left/soft left balance is in the membership, particularly after the raft of membership leavers that has been reported.
Further down the field still, Benn stands out to me as a potential leader - but I haven`t confidence to back him, even at 66/1.0 -
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I don't agree. Wouldn't bet on it mind.Philip_Thompson said:FPT
It wouldn't surprise me if current BXP splits more to Lab than Tory if BXP don't stand. Tory-inclined Leavers have probably already mostly returned to the Tory Party. I imagine rump BXP voters include former Labour voters who would 'die in a ditch' before voting Tory - if BXP don't stand across the country I would not bet on that helping the Tories!Barnesian said:
And where the BXP vote goes where there is no BXP candidate. I'd like to see some polling on that.AndyJS said:
The next major event will be whether or not Farage decides to contest only a small number of seats.Barnesian said:The latest two polls (Survation and YouGov) together make little difference to the EMA. A slight movement away from Labour.
Con 34.9% (-)
Lab 24.4% (-0.2)
LD 18.3% (+0.1)
BXP 12.2 (+0.1)
Con 312 (+2)
Lab 222(-2)
LD 46 (-)
I assume it is a mixture of ex-Tories who are unhappy with the Johnson deal, ex-Lab who are strong leavers or just pissed off and ex-UKIP voters.
My current guess is the current 12% BXP share splits 4% Tory, 4% Lab, and 4% UKIP/NV - so BXP absence is a wash with regard to Tory and Labour.
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Who will hold Finchley?FrancisUrquhart said:Re last tweet...labour are already polling in single figures with jews...there arent many more votes they can lose.
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Tried to use the main site to make a comment yesterday on my iPhone, but couldn’t get it to work.
A shame as it was a really good comment...0 -
And they are both far too centrist for the membership.IanB2 said:
They will - like the LibDems - be under big pressure to go for a woman. I wouldn't back Starmer or Benn for that reason.Stocky said:Corbyn`s resignation may come after a GE defeat. Due to this what are PBers` thoughts about the Next Labour Leader market?
Seems to me that the MPs that head the betting, with the possible exception of Starmer, lack credibility as potential leaders.
Further down the field Cooper is 20/1, but I guessing is hampered by the make-up of the Labour membership. It would be useful to know, if anyone has insight on this, what the hard left/soft left balance is in the membership, particularly after the raft of membership leavers that has been reported.
Further down the field still, Benn stands out to me as a potential leader - but I haven`t confidence to back him, even at 66/1.0 -
Same here. OK on my S9 note thoughFysics_Teacher said:Tried to use the main site to make a comment yesterday on my iPhone, but couldn’t get it to work.
A shame as it was a really good comment...0 -
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Ah new thread. Morning all again. So it's 31st October and we have NOT left the European Union "come what may" as Boris Johnson unequivocally promised that we would. If Johnson had not got his election the focus would have been on this failure and on his Deal, which under prolonged scrutiny would have shed appeal, exposed as being essentially the May Deal amended to capitulate to the EU's demands over Northern Ireland. The next phase could have been a world of pain for the Cons. As it is? We will see. The stars do seem to be aligning for them.0
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Hugh Grant has hit back after being criticised for not shaking Chancellor Sajid Javid's hand at a film premiere.
In an interview with ES Magazine, Mr Javid said he put his hand out to the Hollywood star and said "lovely to meet you" - but Grant refused to shake it.
https://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-50246099
What a total knob.0 -
In part an unintended consequence of the minimum wage. It acts to level down pay rates.FrancisUrquhart said:Labour are never going to poll as low as 21%. Even useless gordon got 29% and labours hard left platform does now have a decent audience given the way income etc has stagnated for lower middle classes over past 10-15 years.
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1. Derive Kepler’s Third Law of Planetary Motion from Newton’s Law of Gravitation and Second Law of Motion...FrancisUrquhart said:
Do your students know it is?Fysics_Teacher said:TEST
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Let's see who holds their seats first, if Labour does so badly Corbyn has to resign.Stocky said:Corbyn`s resignation may come after a GE defeat. Due to this what are PBers` thoughts about the Next Labour Leader market?
Seems to me that the MPs that head the betting, with the possible exception of Starmer, lack credibility as potential leaders.
Further down the field Cooper is 20/1, but I guessing is hampered by the make-up of the Labour membership. It would be useful to know, if anyone has insight on this, what the hard left/soft left balance is in the membership, particularly after the raft of membership leavers that has been reported.
Further down the field still, Benn stands out to me as a potential leader - but I haven`t confidence to back him, even at 66/1.0 -
I'm already fed up with Labour's class war BS, and it's not even midday of the first day yet. I wasn't likely to be persuaded by their campaign, but this one seems particularly risible.
p.s. Labour, Richard Burgon is not an asset. I don't know why you send him out to talk to the media.0 -
Interestingly it says that one should vote Labour in Woking.AndyJS said:Gina Miller has launched a tactical voting website.
https://tactical.vote0 -
The author is aware, presumably, that you carve scary things into pumpkins?bigjohnowls said:1 -
Can we have a tactical vote website on which tactical vote website to use?AndyJS said:Gina Miller has launched a tactical voting website.
https://tactical.vote4 -
Right. In 2017, we also saw planet of attempted registrations for people who are already registered, but weren't sure.Philip_Thompson said:
I'm in both of those numbers. I moved house earlier this year and never bothered to re-register until yesterday.nico67 said:The voter registration surge continues.
177,000 added yesterday .
Over 140, 000 of those under 44.0 -
That sounds like very bad advice to me. They need to get some of us amateur psephologists working on it.tlg86 said:
Interestingly it says that one should vote Labour in Woking.AndyJS said:Gina Miller has launched a tactical voting website.
https://tactical.vote
Hang on — it tells people to vote Labour in Wokingham. Jesus.0 -
IMO Corbyn will resign if he isnt in Number 10MarqueeMark said:
Let's see who holds their seats first, if Labour does so badly Corbyn has to resign.Stocky said:Corbyn`s resignation may come after a GE defeat. Due to this what are PBers` thoughts about the Next Labour Leader market?
Seems to me that the MPs that head the betting, with the possible exception of Starmer, lack credibility as potential leaders.
Further down the field Cooper is 20/1, but I guessing is hampered by the make-up of the Labour membership. It would be useful to know, if anyone has insight on this, what the hard left/soft left balance is in the membership, particularly after the raft of membership leavers that has been reported.
Further down the field still, Benn stands out to me as a potential leader - but I haven`t confidence to back him, even at 66/1.
The new leader betting as well as considering the current Membership ought to also consider that will change significantly once Jezza goes.0 -
What is to stop some naughty people setting up a whole series of deliberately misleading tactical voting sites?TheWhiteRabbit said:
Can we have a tactical vote website on which tactical vote website to use?AndyJS said:Gina Miller has launched a tactical voting website.
https://tactical.vote0 -
AndyJS said:
"Gina Miller has launched a tactical voting website."
If Farage decides to fight every consituency I wonder whether her website will tell folk to vote for The Brexit Party where most likely to defeat the Tories!
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It is actually a phenomenon across the Western world, and most economists put it to down to the increase competition for the jobs / skills of a particular demographic from globalisation.philiph said:
In part an unintended consequence of the minimum wage. It acts to level down pay rates.FrancisUrquhart said:Labour are never going to poll as low as 21%. Even useless gordon got 29% and labours hard left platform does now have a decent audience given the way income etc has stagnated for lower middle classes over past 10-15 years.
The fact that the affected segment of society are still incredibly rich by world standards isn't seen / felt / easy to explain to somebody who isn't better off than they were 10-15 years ago.
A big difference from the past is that a large proportion of who were lower middle class moved to up over the course of 10-15 years to be replaced by poorer segments as people got promoted etc etc etc (and rinse and repeat the cycle), It seems since the crash that isn't happening as much in the western world, but in places like China it is at incredible rate.0 -
I see in response to 4 new Bank Holiday proposal from Labour!!
BREAKING: Tories unveil election pledge for 3 new Bank Holidays - 29 March, 31 October and 31 January - to celebrate their utter failure and ineptitude at implementing Brexit.1 -
TheWhiteRabbit said:
The author is aware, presumably, that you carve scary things into pumpkins?bigjohnowls said:
I guess one dynamic we are less likely to see is centre left MPs "lending" their vote to some left wing lunatic in the initial stages, though I guess there are now a lot more left wing MPs now than last time?Stocky said:Corbyn`s resignation may come after a GE defeat. Due to this what are PBers` thoughts about the Next Labour Leader market?
Seems to me that the MPs that head the betting, with the possible exception of Starmer, lack credibility as potential leaders.
Further down the field Cooper is 20/1, but I guessing is hampered by the make-up of the Labour membership. It would be useful to know, if anyone has insight on this, what the hard left/soft left balance is in the membership, particularly after the raft of membership leavers that has been reported.
Further down the field still, Benn stands out to me as a potential leader - but I haven`t confidence to back him, even at 66/1.0 -
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I'm a member and will probably vote for Laura Pidcock if she stands.Stocky said:Corbyn`s resignation may come after a GE defeat. Due to this what are PBers` thoughts about the Next Labour Leader market?
Seems to me that the MPs that head the betting, with the possible exception of Starmer, lack credibility as potential leaders.
Further down the field Cooper is 20/1, but I guessing is hampered by the make-up of the Labour membership. It would be useful to know, if anyone has insight on this, what the hard left/soft left balance is in the membership, particularly after the raft of membership leavers that has been reported.
Further down the field still, Benn stands out to me as a potential leader - but I haven`t confidence to back him, even at 66/1.0 -
...leaving Labour with only ~9% to collect from third parties in 2019 if they are to catch up with the Tory poll showing, as compared with the ~18% they achieved in 2017. In a sense this election is everybody versus Labour. Nigel Farage is bigger than any TIG player but his party may turn out to be almost as short-lived as a serious contender for having much of an effect. Jeremy Corbyn needs to win votes from previous non-voters, which is why he is focusing on poverty. I've encountered some Labour Leave voters too who say they will be staying at home this time. It could be very close. Another hung parliament would be dramatic.BannedInParis said:
It basically rests on whether Labour can squeeze the Lib Dems (by going harder left) or whether the Lib Dems can fight Labour (by being harder remain).FrancisUrquhart said:Labour are never going to poll as low as 21%. Even useless gordon got 29% and labours hard left platform does now have a decent audience given the way income etc has stagnated for lower middle classes over past 10-15 years.
Tories may lose votes to Brexit but given the lukewarm start and talk of standing aside in some seats, I'm not sure how big an effect that will be.
Outside of any black swans, the Tory share will behave like 2017 - it ended up pretty much back where it was when the election was called.
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/e5/Opinion_polling_UK_2020_election_short_axis.png
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Gina Miller's tactical voting website invites people to vote Labour in Wokingham.
Wokingham is one of the top targets for the LDs, where Tory defector Phillip Lee is standing for the yellows.0 -
Nigel_Formain said: "I guess one dynamic we are less likely to see is centre left MPs "lending" their vote to some left wing lunatic in the initial stages, though I guess there are now a lot more left wing MPs now than last time?"
Maybe in the event of a left wing candidate contest, some left wing MPs will lend their votes to a "Blairite" candidate in the interest of fairness?0 -
lol. I keep looking in ditches round here and haven't yet spotted a fat bloke with scruffy blond hair who needs defibrillatingAnorak said:Happy Brexit day everyone!!
I hope you're all gearing up for the riot we were promised. When does it start? I've just got to finish hammering these nails into my baseball bat.0 -
Interesting, I suppose 'better safe than sorry' concerns.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Right. In 2017, we also saw planet of attempted registrations for people who are already registered, but weren't sure.Philip_Thompson said:
I'm in both of those numbers. I moved house earlier this year and never bothered to re-register until yesterday.nico67 said:The voter registration surge continues.
177,000 added yesterday .
Over 140, 000 of those under 44.0 -
Don't forget 12 April!bigjohnowls said:I see in response to 4 new Bank Holiday proposal from Labour!!
BREAKING: Tories unveil election pledge for 3 new Bank Holidays - 29 March, 31 October and 31 January - to celebrate their utter failure and ineptitude at implementing Brexit.0 -
... without assuming circular motion.Fysics_Teacher said:
1. Derive Kepler’s Third Law of Planetary Motion from Newton’s Law of Gravitation and Second Law of Motion...FrancisUrquhart said:
Do your students know it is?Fysics_Teacher said:TEST
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kinabalu said: "I'm a member and will probably vote for Laura Pidcock if she stands."
Thanks for that - interesting. I had her down as one of the less credible candidates! Do you know whether the hard left still have a stranglehold on membership - like they did when they elected Corbyn?0 -
My guess would be that if you are motivated enough to want to vote for TBP then leaving the EU is probably your main driving force.Philip_Thompson said:
It wouldn't surprise me if current BXP splits more to Lab than Tory if BXP don't stand. Tory-inclined Leavers have probably already mostly returned to the Tory Party. I imagine rump BXP voters include former Labour voters who would 'die in a ditch' before voting Tory - if BXP don't stand across the country I would not bet on that helping the Tories!
TBP standing down in seats won't necessarily mean those potential voters will swing behind the Tories but it may well demotivate them such that they don't turn out at all.
Nobody will know after the event of course.0 -
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Is there a presenter currently working for the BBC who is less well informed than Emma Barnett? Admittedly she interviews some very stupid guests-none more so than her current one-Labour MP Lloyd Russell- Moyle but to claim the BBC employs the son of the director general of the BBC should al least cost her her job.0
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Another forlorn hope!Stocky said:Nigel_Formain said: "I guess one dynamic we are less likely to see is centre left MPs "lending" their vote to some left wing lunatic in the initial stages, though I guess there are now a lot more left wing MPs now than last time?"
Maybe in the event of a left wing candidate contest, some left wing MPs will lend their votes to a "Blairite" candidate in the interest of fairness?0 -
Boris Days ?bigjohnowls said:I see in response to 4 new Bank Holiday proposal from Labour!!
BREAKING: Tories unveil election pledge for 3 new Bank Holidays - 29 March, 31 October and 31 January - to celebrate their utter failure and ineptitude at implementing Brexit.0 -
Boris Breaks.Nigelb said:
Boris Days ?bigjohnowls said:I see in response to 4 new Bank Holiday proposal from Labour!!
BREAKING: Tories unveil election pledge for 3 new Bank Holidays - 29 March, 31 October and 31 January - to celebrate their utter failure and ineptitude at implementing Brexit.0 -
Is it at all possible that Labour could actually choose someone worse than Jeremy Corbyn? Sadly I think that is possible!0
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And leave deputy Tom Watson as temporary leader.bigjohnowls said:
IMO Corbyn will resign if he isnt in Number 10MarqueeMark said:
Let's see who holds their seats first, if Labour does so badly Corbyn has to resign.Stocky said:Corbyn`s resignation may come after a GE defeat. Due to this what are PBers` thoughts about the Next Labour Leader market?
Seems to me that the MPs that head the betting, with the possible exception of Starmer, lack credibility as potential leaders.
Further down the field Cooper is 20/1, but I guessing is hampered by the make-up of the Labour membership. It would be useful to know, if anyone has insight on this, what the hard left/soft left balance is in the membership, particularly after the raft of membership leavers that has been reported.
Further down the field still, Benn stands out to me as a potential leader - but I haven`t confidence to back him, even at 66/1.
The new leader betting as well as considering the current Membership ought to also consider that will change significantly once Jezza goes.
I doubt it. He may say he is leaving when a new leader is elected by conference in the autumn.0 -
That would be Kepler’s First Law of course.YBarddCwsc said:
... without assuming circular motion.Fysics_Teacher said:
1. Derive Kepler’s Third Law of Planetary Motion from Newton’s Law of Gravitation and Second Law of Motion...FrancisUrquhart said:
Do your students know it is?Fysics_Teacher said:TEST
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..and the First of April to celebrate us having a clown as a PM and a fool as LoTO.Pierrot said:
Don't forget 12 April!bigjohnowls said:I see in response to 4 new Bank Holiday proposal from Labour!!
BREAKING: Tories unveil election pledge for 3 new Bank Holidays - 29 March, 31 October and 31 January - to celebrate their utter failure and ineptitude at implementing Brexit.0 -
Round here Priti Patel would be trying to resuscitate him!Nigel_Foremain said:
lol. I keep looking in ditches round here and haven't yet spotted a fat bloke with scruffy blond hair who needs defibrillatingAnorak said:Happy Brexit day everyone!!
I hope you're all gearing up for the riot we were promised. When does it start? I've just got to finish hammering these nails into my baseball bat.0 -
This tactical voting site is going to backfire on the REMAIN parties isnt it?AndyJS said:Gina Miller's tactical voting website invites people to vote Labour in Wokingham.
Wokingham is one of the top targets for the LDs, where Tory defector Phillip Lee is standing for the yellows.1 -
Cripes!OldKingCole said:
Round here Priti Patel would be trying to resuscitate him!Nigel_Foremain said:
lol. I keep looking in ditches round here and haven't yet spotted a fat bloke with scruffy blond hair who needs defibrillatingAnorak said:Happy Brexit day everyone!!
I hope you're all gearing up for the riot we were promised. When does it start? I've just got to finish hammering these nails into my baseball bat.0 -
Yea. JC as PM is frightening!TheWhiteRabbit said:
The author is aware, presumably, that you carve scary things into pumpkins?bigjohnowls said:0 -
Wouldn't mind Priti Patel resuscitating me, tbhNigel_Foremain said:
Cripes!OldKingCole said:
Round here Priti Patel would be trying to resuscitate him!Nigel_Foremain said:
lol. I keep looking in ditches round here and haven't yet spotted a fat bloke with scruffy blond hair who needs defibrillatingAnorak said:Happy Brexit day everyone!!
I hope you're all gearing up for the riot we were promised. When does it start? I've just got to finish hammering these nails into my baseball bat.0 -
Could be. We need data! It will vary depending on the type of constituency of course. If it is a Labour Leave seat, there may be more ex Labour in the BXP box.Pulpstar said:
I think the remaining split would be slightly more favourable to the Tories than that. Something like 4 Tory, 2 Lab, 6 Won't vote.Barnesian said:
And where the BXP vote goes where there is no BXP candidate. I'd like to see some polling on that.AndyJS said:
The next major event will be whether or not Farage decides to contest only a small number of seats.Barnesian said:The latest two polls (Survation and YouGov) together make little difference to the EMA. A slight movement away from Labour.
Con 34.9% (-)
Lab 24.4% (-0.2)
LD 18.3% (+0.1)
BXP 12.2 (+0.1)
Con 312 (+2)
Lab 222(-2)
LD 46 (-)
I assume it is a mixture of ex-Tories who are unhappy with the Johnson deal, ex-Lab who are strong leavers or just pissed off and ex-UKIP voters.
My current guess is the current 12% BXP share splits 4% Tory, 4% Lab, and 4% UKIP/NV - so BXP absence is a wash with regard to Tory and Labour.
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Judging by the complete failure of hard left attempts to deselect MPs the answer to that seems to be no. Despite all the sound and fury not a single deselection attempt has succeeded and there is only one case in which the process is still going on, which is Roger Godsiff and he is widely disliked by all sides, partly because of his support for the Birmingham school protestors.Stocky said:kinabalu said: "I'm a member and will probably vote for Laura Pidcock if she stands."
Thanks for that - interesting. I had her down as one of the less credible candidates! Do you know whether the hard left still have a stranglehold on membership - like they did when they elected Corbyn?0 -
No chicken counting but I would definitely take that result! And that's with Scotland separate too . . .rottenborough said:0 -
So we have had two tactical voting websites mentioned so far, one of which seems to default to “Vote LD” and the other to “Vote Labour”. Are they going to end up cancelling out?0
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I use 80% UNS and 20% multiplicative. UNS has the problem that it is uniform. It adds the same share to every constituency. The multiplicative multiplies the share recognising that the absolute increase in share is likely to be higher where the original share is higher. So that's one difference. There are also tactical voting differences (reduces Tory gains from Labour by 8 seats) and allocation of the green share. It's matching quite well with the individual constituency polls but they are small samples so not much comfort.HYUFD said:
The 4% swing from Labour to the Tories you have actually sees the Tories gain 38 Labour seats on UNS, not 19Barnesian said:
Tories win 19 seats off Labour but lose seats to SNP and LDs.Philip_Thompson said:
I don't know where those figures are coming from, but I simply do not believe that a 10.5% Tory-Lab lead will result in the Tories winning 5 fewer seats than they did in 2017!Barnesian said:The latest two polls (Survation and YouGov) together make little difference to the EMA. A slight movement away from Labour.
Con 34.9% (-)
Lab 24.4% (-0.2)
LD 18.3% (+0.1)
BXP 12.2 (+0.1)
Con 312 (+2)
Lab 222(-2)
LD 46 (-)
Those polling figures are not far off 2015 besides the Lib Dems but with a bigger Tory lead over Labour, yet supposedly Tories will win 18 fewer than they did in 2015 while Labor will win 10 fewer than they did in 2015? That makes no sense!
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative
Electoral calculus is quite crude.0 -
https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1189854565216268288
This was when Labour actually had effective politicians of course.
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