politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » CON has a good chance of coming out top on votes: holding a
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » CON has a good chance of coming out top on votes: holding and winning seats is going to be a lot more challenging
As we get closer to May 7th 2015, election day, I think that two things will happen that will boost the blue vote total from current polling levels: a significant proportion of the CON-UKIP switchers will return as will many of the GE2010 CON voters who are currently saying “don’t know”.
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First!0
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There was, wasn’t there an element in the 2010 Tory vote of previous abstainers who were fed up with/disgusted by Labour and who consequently came out to vote. Will they be enthused to vote by Cameron’s antics?
Oh, and second.0 -
Thought the argument about what constitutes a Londoner was funny so I'll throw my tuppence ha'penny worth in.
Born in Hammersmith hospital and went to school in W4, that's a London postcode. My friend who grew up in Bromley thought he was a Londoner, I reminded him that Bromley was in Fackin' Kent and he seemed upset, why?
You are a Londoner if you were brought up there, it doesn't really matter whether you were born there, the point it that to be a Londoner you have to grow up there, why, because it informs your whole world yiew and development, not something that can happen if you rock up after you're eighteen
When I used to travel to the 'sticks' and meet people my age I was always struck by how immature they were, that is what London does to the young, that is the difference between growing up in a metropolis and nowheresville.
I could give you many other examples, such as growing up alongside the most famous musicians in the world at the time, one has a different perspective.0 -
The other interesting question is: in that case, what should Ed do? If he has an overall majority (which I think unlikely) he'll try to govern of course, though I doubt he'll last long.
But suppose he's, say, 10-20 seats short of an overall majority whilst being 30-40 ahead of the Tories. If he's wise he'll offer Cammo a "grand coalition" (perhaps for two or so years only) and then the question becomes, should Cammo accept?
And those of us who think the blame game is bad enough now should wait to see what the Mail and the Guardian make of it then. The 1970s mutterings of a military coup might rise from the grave. But be sure of this - there won't be such a coup unless OGH has got on at 8/1 first!0 -
The window is likely to be narrowed by first time incumbency, which this time heavily favours the Conservatives. But 8/1 is a good bet.0
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Latest ARSE 2015 General Election Projection Countdown :
2 hours0 -
At 8/1, it seems like a good bet. I certainly can't see Ed topping 40+ gains and 300 seats. However, I think it's perfectly plausible for the Tories to be level on votes or 1-2% ahead with, say, 275 seats to Ed's 295. That'd make for some very interesting politics, although I shudder to think about the quality of government that'd result.
PS. Thanks for all the kind words on my post last night. I'm off to Devon (early) this morning, but it's a theme I will probably return to in future posts.
(Note: I've just noted Innocent Abroad's comment below, which is similar, and I simply don't know the answer to a grand coalition. I'd lean towards no, simply because I think Cameron wouldn't see the year out if he lost and I can't see any other Tory leader agreeing to it. On my figures, we'd get a weakish Lab-LibDem coalition. Probably with another electoral reform offering for the Commons.)0 -
And the good news motors on
Startlingly good figures from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) on new vehicle registrations in March and year to date. March recorded the second highest number of new cars registered since the current twice-yearly plate change was introduced in 1999.
Headline stats from SMMT:
• Demand for new 14-plate sees March reach 464,824 new car registrations, a rise of 17.7%.
• Since move to twice-yearly plate change in 1999, only March 2004 saw higher registrations (at 466,954).
• Year-to-date registrations up 13.7% to 688,122 units.
• March is typically the biggest month in a year accounting for almost a fifth of full-year registrations.
• Biggest-ever month for alternatively-fuelled vehicles as volumes reach 8,713 units, growth of 63.8% on 2013.
High car registrations are somewhat two edged on their impact on the general economy. They demonstrate increasiing consumer confidence; rising supply of and demand for credit finance; as well as willingness to draw down savings and/or increases in disposable income. All positive indicators of a recovering economy.
But as most of the cars purchased are imported, and even those manufactured in the UK use a substantial amount of intermediate imports, the positive impact on UK trade figures is minimal.
Some interesting supplementary stats though on changes in patterns of purchase over the past decade:
• Segments: Market has shifted towards smaller cars (Mini and Supermini segments) and Dual Purpose and MPV segments.
• Fuel efficiency: Average mpg has improved 35%, from 42.4mpg to 57.2mpg, since March 2004.
• CO2 emissions: Average new car CO2 emissions are 26% lower than a decade ago. In March 2014, 67.2% of the market was below 130g/km, so paid no VED in the first year, compared with 6.5% in March 2004.
Less flashy, more efficient and greener. You can tell we are living under a Tory led government.0 -
Can we please have a thread on why sex is better under the Tories?0
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The good news does indeed motor on, Maria Miller is still there reeking the Tory gaff out with an expense cheating waft and many in the Tory Party are publically attacking her.
Hang in there Maria!0 -
But why?Innocent_Abroad said:Can we please have a thread on why sex is better under the Tories?
Lefties never learn and much damage might be done by encouraging practice.
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re Londoners
Is London really one town?
Are the denizens of Primrose Hill (even the ones who've been there 100 years or so...) really that similar to the residents of East Ham?
What is the unifying factor between the residents of Aldgate, Blackheath and Chelsea? Other than a recognition that - by and large - change, instability, insecurity and opportunity have been good for them? Those that find the continual process of reinvention uncomfortable, tend to depart, leaving those who remain ever more committed to the cycle of creation and destruction.0 -
Must avoid David Mellor joke...Innocent_Abroad said:Can we please have a thread on why sex is better under the Tories?
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re. Londoners, apologies also missed the thread.
If you have come to live in (as opposed to study, visit, invade) London, no matter for how short a time and no matter from whence you came, you are a Londoner.
And welcome to you.0 -
Good morning, everyone.
I must admit, the blues topping the poll is a realistic possibility (top three parties could come in any order), and I'm greatly surprised by that.
F1: post-race analysis for one of the best races in years is up here:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2014/04/bahrain-post-race-analysis.html0 -
Can I make a plea for it not to reference Brian Coleman?Innocent_Abroad said:Can we please have a thread on why sex is better under the Tories?
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Interesting snippets from Bloomberg coverage of a KPMG report on the UK Banks:
The total assets of British lenders have dropped 25 percent over five years to 5.2 trillion pounds [i.e. around three times UK annual GDP], while capital reserves have been boosted by 93 billion pounds, [KPMG] said in a report today. Since 2008, the banks have faced about 28.5 billion pounds of costs for litigation, fines and customer compensation, it said.
And most important of all, especially for Mr. Brooke, was the statement by the senior KPMG executive publishing the report:
“Most board members of U.K. banks have taken on their roles post crisis and are committed to making the changes required,” David Sayer, global head of banking at KPMG, said in the statement. “We must give bank management time to deliver, which will help restore the trust, viability and reputation of the banks.”
Well planned, soundly paced and always progressing to a positive conclusion. That's the way the Tories do it.0 -
Latest 2015 ARSE General Election Countdown Projection :
30 minutes 30 seconds0 -
Is this thread going to turn into another "I'm more Cockney than you" war between self obsessed faux Londoners? There's loads of good stuff in the News, but they'd rather talk about how they stayed overnight in the Bestest Place in the Entire Universe, and now London counts them as one of it's own.0
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Bestest Place in the Entire Universe?TwistedFireStopper said:Is this thread going to turn into another "I'm more Cockney than you" war between self obsessed faux Londoners? There's loads of good stuff in the News, but they'd rather talk about how they stayed overnight in the Bestest Place in the Entire Universe, and now London counts them as one of it's own.
Tubes, surely.0 -
Or under Eric Pickles .... which must be close to a near death experience !!Neil said:
Can I make a plea for it not to reference Brian Coleman?Innocent_Abroad said:Can we please have a thread on why sex is better under the Tories?
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I missed last night, so I certainly hope so.TwistedFireStopper said:Is this thread going to turn into another "I'm more Cockney than you" war between self obsessed faux Londoners?
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Morning all and yesterday I saw a comment that a YES vote would be disastrous for Labour and would kill off the Tories. Haven't read such crap in years. Losing 40 seats as Diane Abbott said would be disastrous for Labour. Given that the vast majority of Tory seats are south of Birmingham, would most Tory voters actually notice Scotland had gone let alone determine their votes by it? As Tom Cruise reportedly said, it would be a shame if Scotland votes to leave England. I suspect most English Tory voters would think the same given they don't know there is a difference between Great Britain and England.
On thread, Ted Heath did it in 1974 but I still expect Cammo to come out clear winner and Basingstoke to return a Tory MP with a healthy majority.0 -
I must admit I'm slightly surprised that polling for the same sex marriage referendum in Ireland next year is getting better for the 'yes' side. Now at 76% 'yes' to 24% 'no' when the undecideds are excluded.
http://www.irishtimes.com/news/social-affairs/support-for-same-sex-marriage-increasing-poll-finds-1.1752448
Paddy Power has a few markets on the referendum but I cant say any of them strike me as value right now.0 -
F1: I watched the BBC highlights, for a commentary comparison and to see if I'd missed anything. Got to say I think Coulthard, whilst less polished, picked up on more technical issues than Brundle. (Brake dust from Button, which I saw and Brundle missed, and some other things). Also, the BBC commentary team reported on Hulkenberg, late on, suffering some sort of lack of power (I think). It turns out Vettel didn't have, as well as DRS, the MGU-H working properly, which is why Ricciardo was faster at the end.
Maldonado has a 5 place grid penalty for China. This compares to the 10 place grid penalty Ricciardo got for not serving his drive-through penalty following an unsafe release in Malaysia.
Still, at least he visited Gutierrez in hospital:
twiitter.com/TimBridgman/status/452886112571514880/photo/10 -
I took advantage of this when Paddy Power launched a similar market.
I topped up with Ladbrokes.0 -
I just find it rather sad, I've travelled a bit and one of the most common questions asked is 'where are you from', to which I answer, I'm a Londoner but live in Geneva, even after twenty years here I would never say I am 'from Geneva' or a Genevan.TwistedFireStopper said:Is this thread going to turn into another "I'm more Cockney than you" war between self obsessed faux Londoners? There's loads of good stuff in the News, but they'd rather talk about how they stayed overnight in the Bestest Place in the Entire Universe, and now London counts them as one of it's own.
Be honest, being from London is cool and that's why people want to claim it as their own.
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More's to the point has ISam managed to launch some form of pink star badge system to denote non-Londoner Londoners yet? I will wear mine with, erm, pride, along with 5 in 6 other Londoners. I will make sure I don't visit Canning Town however, as his mates will beat me up.
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Many years ago I visited the Bristol zoo. For me it was not a pleasant experience, for many reasons.
In particular, several big cats were kept in small abutting cages, each with a door that could allow a selected individual access to a larger enclosure. But the individual allowed to promenade in the latter enclosure, constrained by its mindset, only padding around in the smaller space of its own cage.0 -
@TFS
At least some of those Londoners will get to see the delights of Leicester next season. Man United and Arsenal fans can come up to visit the pearl of the midlands. For those who havent travelled beyond the Watford gap : here be monsters....TwistedFireStopper said:Is this thread going to turn into another "I'm more Cockney than you" war between self obsessed faux Londoners? There's loads of good stuff in the News, but they'd rather talk about how they stayed overnight in the Bestest Place in the Entire Universe, and now London counts them as one of it's own.
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And a stolen royal corpse, Mr. Foxinsox. The sooner Richard of York returns to Yorkshire the better.0
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Easterross Heath would have won in Feb 74 without Scotland and Scot Home would have beaten English Wilson. Otherwise Attlee and Blair would have won all their elections in England and Wales alone, and Wilson half his. It would not be good for Labour, but not disastrous either.
Yougov shows 14% of 2010 LDs have gone to the Tories, so they should win some LD seats and a lead of 3% or more should see them largest party. If the Tories win on votes and Labour on seats, then either losing seats Clegg will hold even more sway in 2015 and literally be the kingmaker0 -
Latest 2015 ARSE General Election Projection Countdown :
11 minutes 11 seconds0 -
During my next stint as guest editor, I shall do such a thread.Innocent_Abroad said:Can we please have a thread on why sex is better under the Tories?
I might combine it with a thread on electoral reform, I know PBers get very passionate when discussing electoral reform
This will be photo I used in the thread about why sex is better under the Tories
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-_T3hDmOLYwc/UbTWv0i__4I/AAAAAAAAHx4/b43dIcc1r7Y/s1600/mouth+one+square+1.jpg0 -
Leave Pastor alone, he's so entertaining, for the sake of F1, Mercedes should drop Rosberg and replace him with Pastor.Morris_Dancer said:F1: I watched the BBC highlights, for a commentary comparison and to see if I'd missed anything. Got to say I think Coulthard, whilst less polished, picked up on more technical issues than Brundle. (Brake dust from Button, which I saw and Brundle missed, and some other things). Also, the BBC commentary team reported on Hulkenberg, late on, suffering some sort of lack of power (I think). It turns out Vettel didn't have, as well as DRS, the MGU-H working properly, which is why Ricciardo was faster at the end.
Maldonado has a 5 place grid penalty for China. This compares to the 10 place grid penalty Ricciardo got for not serving his drive-through penalty following an unsafe release in Malaysia.
Still, at least he visited Gutierrez in hospital:
twiitter.com/TimBridgman/status/452886112571514880/photo/10 -
Congratulations to Leceister! 'mon the midlands!foxinsoxuk said:@TFS
At least some of those Londoners will get to see the delights of Leicester next season. Man United and Arsenal fans can come up to visit the pearl of the midlands. For those who havent travelled beyond the Watford gap : here be monsters....TwistedFireStopper said:Is this thread going to turn into another "I'm more Cockney than you" war between self obsessed faux Londoners? There's loads of good stuff in the News, but they'd rather talk about how they stayed overnight in the Bestest Place in the Entire Universe, and now London counts them as one of it's own.
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I've heard that Londoners suffer nose bleeds and cold turkey like withdrawal symptoms, if they leave The Smoke for more than 24 hours. They're terrified that London will reject them, and they won't be allowed to pay the congestion charge, get ignored on the Tube or rest their gaze on the Most Stunning Parks and Recreational Areas in the World ever again, poor dears.foxinsoxuk said:
@TFS
At least some of those Londoners will get to see the delights of Leicester next season. Man United and Arsenal fans can come up to visit the pearl of the midlands. For those who havent travelled beyond the Watford gap : here be monsters....TwistedFireStopper said:Is this thread going to turn into another "I'm more Cockney than you" war between self obsessed faux Londoners? There's loads of good stuff in the News, but they'd rather talk about how they stayed overnight in the Bestest Place in the Entire Universe, and now London counts them as one of it's own.
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Mr. Eagles, Hulkenberg must be glad he wasn't given the opportunity to drive for Lotus, and Williams must be laughing their head off.
I sympathise with Grosjean, though. He's a very good driver.0 -
As someone who lived and worked in London for nearly five years, I considered myself a Londoner after a while.
Richard Tyndall and I had a very illuminating chat last year, about what it means to be English/British, and he was right when, and I paraphrase, it doesn't, matter what your birth certificate or passport says, it's all about your state of mind.
As he said, if you embrace and love the country, then you're British/English, same applies to London and being a Londoner.0 -
You can have the rotten corpse, gladly. The barmy Mayor of Leicester loves a vanity project. We can't afford anymore!Morris_Dancer said:And a stolen royal corpse, Mr. Foxinsox. The sooner Richard of York returns to Yorkshire the better.
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Did you see/hear Ron Dennis open a can of whoop ass go all medieval on Vettel?Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, Hulkenberg must be glad he wasn't given the opportunity to drive for Lotus, and Williams must be laughing their head off.
I sympathise with Grosjean, though. He's a very good driver.
http://www.theguardian.com/sport/2014/apr/06/sebastian-vettel-attack-ron-dennis-f1-new-look0 -
Yay.
Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum told Newsmax he is "seriously looking at" another run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2016.
http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/RickSantorum-2016-gop-presidential/2014/04/05/id/563866/0 -
BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS ****
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to JNN the contents of the latest 2015 ARSE General Election projection :
Con 302 .. Lab 278 .. LibDem 38 .. SNP 8 .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. Ukip 2 .. Respect 0 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1
Conservatives 24 seats short of a majority.
.........................................................................................
WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
JNN - Jacobite News Network
ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors0 -
Game of Thrones Season 4 opener.
Very impressive.0 -
On topic, I'm praying that this situation does indeed arise.
Imagine the fighting if the Tories get most votes, but Labour get most seats, with the Lib Dems as Kingmakers. It'll be weeks of sport.0 -
Nah, it'll mean we turn into Belgium, and no government for like 589 days.TwistedFireStopper said:On topic, I'm praying that this situation does indeed arise.
Imagine the fighting if the Tories get most votes, but Labour get most seats, with the Lib Dems as Kingmakers. It'll be weeks of sport.
Belgium, I mean Belgium
The only good thing about Belgium, apart from Simon Mignolet, TinTin, Poirot, and D'hondt PR, is that it was created to annoy les grenouilles0 -
I'll take 589 days of inactivity. While our politicians are fighting amongst themselves, they're not annoying us. The country'd still function. Probably function better!TheScreamingEagles said:
Nah, it'll mean we turn into Belgium, and no government for like 589 days.TwistedFireStopper said:On topic, I'm praying that this situation does indeed arise.
Imagine the fighting if the Tories get most votes, but Labour get most seats, with the Lib Dems as Kingmakers. It'll be weeks of sport.
Belgium, I mean Belgium
The only good thing about Belgium, apart from Simon Mignolet, TinTin, Poirot, and D'hondt PR, is that it was created to annoy les grenouilles
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John Rentoul doesn't seem too impressed with Ed Miliband at the moment. He's just tweeted the following:
"Just gibberish. http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/ed-miliband-middle-britain-has-been-hollowed-out-and-cut-off-from-the-benefits-of-growth-9242447.html …"0 -
Yebbut, past performance, etc.HYUFD said:Easterross Heath would have won in Feb 74 without Scotland and Scot Home would have beaten English Wilson. Otherwise Attlee and Blair would have won all their elections in England and Wales alone, and Wilson half his. It would not be good for Labour, but not disastrous either.
Labour's Scottish advantage is now 40 seats, whereas in the 1950s through the 1970s it was much more even-stevens between the major parties, meaning Scotland had less of an impact on the overall result, unless it was exceptionally close.
The increased divergence of Scotland, combined with the rise of third parties, and the reduced exaggerative quality of FPTP (fewer marginals), mean that the loss of Scotland could well impact on future elections to a far higher degree than it ever would have done in the past...
No one has a crystal ball, but it really is complacent to quote election results from yesteryear, when the political geography of the UK is now hugely different to what it was then.0 -
Mr. Eagles, I'd heard of Ron Dennis' disapproval of Vettel's comments, which do have some merit.
Also, please don't go into spoilers or hints about Game of Thrones. I know you haven't, but the first opportunity I'll have to watch it will be in just under a year and I prefer going in as blind as possible. [I have read the books, but there are some differences and I've forgotten half of what happens].
Speaking of books [seamless segue], my first traditionally published story should be out within a few weeks. It's a short story, entitled Saxon & Khan, and is part of the Malevolence: Tales from Beyond the Veil anthology (which you can preorder here): http://shop.ticketyboopress.co.uk/index.php?id_product=1&controller=product
It's set (partly) in London, now I come to think of it.0 -
I just had a flash back to a series thread in NCISTheScreamingEagles said:
Nah, it'll mean we turn into Belgium, and no government for like 589 days.TwistedFireStopper said:On topic, I'm praying that this situation does indeed arise.
Imagine the fighting if the Tories get most votes, but Labour get most seats, with the Lib Dems as Kingmakers. It'll be weeks of sport.
Belgium, I mean Belgium
The only good thing about Belgium, apart from Simon Mignolet, TinTin, Poirot, and D'hondt PR, is that it was created to annoy les grenouilles0 -
Sky: Russian soldier kills Ukrainian naval officer in Crimea...0
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He prefers to be called Rene.Blue_rog said:
I just had a flash back to a series thread in NCISTheScreamingEagles said:
Nah, it'll mean we turn into Belgium, and no government for like 589 days.TwistedFireStopper said:On topic, I'm praying that this situation does indeed arise.
Imagine the fighting if the Tories get most votes, but Labour get most seats, with the Lib Dems as Kingmakers. It'll be weeks of sport.
Belgium, I mean Belgium
The only good thing about Belgium, apart from Simon Mignolet, TinTin, Poirot, and D'hondt PR, is that it was created to annoy les grenouilles0 -
Maybe.TwistedFireStopper said:
I'll take 589 days of inactivity. While our politicians are fighting amongst themselves, they're not annoying us. The country'd still function. Probably function better!TheScreamingEagles said:
Nah, it'll mean we turn into Belgium, and no government for like 589 days.TwistedFireStopper said:On topic, I'm praying that this situation does indeed arise.
Imagine the fighting if the Tories get most votes, but Labour get most seats, with the Lib Dems as Kingmakers. It'll be weeks of sport.
Belgium, I mean Belgium
The only good thing about Belgium, apart from Simon Mignolet, TinTin, Poirot, and D'hondt PR, is that it was created to annoy les grenouilles0 -
I won't spoil it for you.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, I'd heard of Ron Dennis' disapproval of Vettel's comments, which do have some merit.
Also, please don't go into spoilers or hints about Game of Thrones. I know you haven't, but the first opportunity I'll have to watch it will be in just under a year and I prefer going in as blind as possible. [I have read the books, but there are some differences and I've forgotten half of what happens].
Speaking of books [seamless segue], my first traditionally published story should be out within a few weeks. It's a short story, entitled Saxon & Khan, and is part of the Malevolence: Tales from Beyond the Veil anthology (which you can preorder here): http://shop.ticketyboopress.co.uk/index.php?id_product=1&controller=product
It's set (partly) in London, now I come to think of it.
So you read books, and forgot half of what happens?
No wonder you think Hannibal is brilliant :-)
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Mr. Eagles, I forgot Francis' name once (as in probably the second most important character in Bane of Souls).
At least I only forget half. You forget the Queen of Bithynia's glorious first foray into foreign policy, losing to new recruits with his own veterans at Dyrrachium and then getting killed by his own side. There's not much of Caesar left to remember after that.0 -
I could mention the conquest of Gaul amongst other things.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, I forgot Francis' name once (as in probably the second most important character in Bane of Souls).
At least I only forget half. You forget the Queen of Bithynia's glorious first foray into foreign policy, losing to new recruits with his own veterans at Dyrrachium and then getting killed by his own side. There's not much of Caesar left to remember after that.
Caesar was so brilliant, they named a month after him, whereas they named a cannibal after Hannibal.0 -
Gallia Narbonensis was conquered long before Caesar arrived.
Also, beating the French in warfare has been done quite often.
The leader of the A-Team was named after Hannibal.0 -
Agree with that. I was born in London, moved to the country when I was 5, and then came back here at 21 and have been here ever since. I would think of myself as *both* a London *and* a country boy. (Scots, take note: it is possible to have multiple affiliations without diminishing either).TOPPING said:re. Londoners, apologies also missed the thread.
If you have come to live in (as opposed to study, visit, invade) London, no matter for how short a time and no matter from whence you came, you are a Londoner.
And welcome to you.
That said, I've only been to Islington* and North London about 3 times in my life...
* Technically the HAC is in Islington, but I'm excluding that as it's spiritual home is somewhere in Fulham...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Honourable_Artillery_Company
For nerds, who aren't aware of them, the HAC are way cool. The below is from Wiki. Before reading it, bear in mind that these are part-time volunteer reservists who work in the City during the day. And that the average number of university degree per head is 1.7 ...
Comprising a team of six specialist soldiers, the role of STA Patrols is to conduct high risk static covert surveillance at long range and in close proximity to the enemy. The patrols are trained and equipped both to collect highly granular information and intelligence and to deliver joint effects at range; be they kinetic (all patrols contain personnel trained in the delivery of precision and indirect fires) or non-kinetic.
Basically, they go and hang out behind enemy lines and call down artillery fire on troop movements...0 -
Out early
New Populus VI: Lab 37 (=); Cons 34 (+1); LD 9 (-1); UKIP 14 (+1); Oth 7 (=)
Budget Bounce restored?
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Not another post on London!Toms said:Many years ago I visited the Bristol zoo. For me it was not a pleasant experience, for many reasons.
In particular, several big cats were kept in small abutting cages, each with a door that could allow a selected individual access to a larger enclosure. But the individual allowed to promenade in the latter enclosure, constrained by its mindset, only padding around in the smaller space of its own cage.
;-)0 -
No spoilers please. Have it recorded.TheScreamingEagles said:Game of Thrones Season 4 opener.
Very impressive.0 -
He was so inept, he had a crazy guy on his team, and was found guilty when he was innocent.Morris_Dancer said:Gallia Narbonensis was conquered long before Caesar arrived.
Also, beating the French in warfare has been done quite often.
The leader of the A-Team was named after Hannibal.
Perfect analogy for Hannibal.0 -
You say that like it's a bad thing?TheScreamingEagles said:
and no government for like 589 days.0 -
The point is that people born and raised in London (real Londoners in my book) feel differently about the speed, and amount of change in their hometown than people who came to live in London as a choice. Asa a rule of thumb, if someone living in London says they love the everchanging communities, vibrant multiculture, the cute little Polish deli etc etc they weren't born and raised in London.. eg Stella CreasyBobaFett said:More's to the point has ISam managed to launch some form of pink star badge system to denote non-Londoner Londoners yet? I will wear mine with, erm, pride, along with 5 in 6 other Londoners. I will make sure I don't visit Canning Town however, as his mates will beat me up.
As @SwissBob , who is a Londoner, says, its cool to say you are a Londoner, that's why people who come to live there as an adult, like you SeanT and TSE, get the hump when people point out they aren't real Londoners.
Its not an insult. I have always lived in a London borough, was brought up in one, played football in the East London Cup at School, but really its Essex, and if I moved into town and started saying I was a Londoner, which carries a lot ,more weight than saying "from Essex", my mates would rip the piss out of me.
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They named a *calender* after him...TheScreamingEagles said:
I could mention the conquest of Gaul amongst other things.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, I forgot Francis' name once (as in probably the second most important character in Bane of Souls).
At least I only forget half. You forget the Queen of Bithynia's glorious first foray into foreign policy, losing to new recruits with his own veterans at Dyrrachium and then getting killed by his own side. There's not much of Caesar left to remember after that.
Caesar was so brilliant, they named a month after him, whereas they named a cannibal after Hannibal.0 -
Tyrion has his genitalia eaten by rats in this episode.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, I'd heard of Ron Dennis' disapproval of Vettel's comments, which do have some merit.
Also, please don't go into spoilers or hints about Game of Thrones. I know you haven't, but the first opportunity I'll have to watch it will be in just under a year and I prefer going in as blind as possible. [I have read the books, but there are some differences and I've forgotten half of what happens].
Speaking of books [seamless segue], my first traditionally published story should be out within a few weeks. It's a short story, entitled Saxon & Khan, and is part of the Malevolence: Tales from Beyond the Veil anthology (which you can preorder here): http://shop.ticketyboopress.co.uk/index.php?id_product=1&controller=product
It's set (partly) in London, now I come to think of it.0 -
The Daily Mash has a good take on the latest Game of Thrones:
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/arts-entertainment/new-game-of-thrones-is-just-everyone-introducing-themselves-20140401852380 -
I was born in Isleworth in West London, and have spent all but about nine years of my life in the capital.isam said:
The point is that people born and raised in London (real Londoners in my book) feel differently about the speed, and amount of change in their hometown than people who came to live in London as a choice. Asa a rule of thumb, if someone living in London says they love the everchanging communities, vibrant multiculture, the cute little Polish deli etc etc they weren't born and raised in London.. eg Stella CreasyBobaFett said:More's to the point has ISam managed to launch some form of pink star badge system to denote non-Londoner Londoners yet? I will wear mine with, erm, pride, along with 5 in 6 other Londoners. I will make sure I don't visit Canning Town however, as his mates will beat me up.
As @SwissBob , who is a Londoner, says, its cool to say you are a Londoner, that's why people who come to live there as an adult, like you SeanT and TSE, get the hump when people point out they aren't real Londoners.
Its not an insult. I have always lived in a London borough, was brought up in one, played football in the East London Cup at School, but really its Essex, and if I moved into town and started saying I was a Londoner, which carries a lot ,more weight than saying "from Essex", my mates would rip the piss out of me.
But - with the exception of four or five years in Aldgate - my experience is entirely in Central, West, and North West London. East Ham and Stratford are as foreign to me - or probably more foreign -than Reading or Oxford.
London is not one town.0 -
"the point it that to be a Londoner you have to grow up there"Swiss_Bob said:Thought the argument about what constitutes a Londoner was funny so I'll throw my tuppence ha'penny worth in.
Born in Hammersmith hospital and went to school in W4, that's a London postcode. My friend who grew up in Bromley thought he was a Londoner, I reminded him that Bromley was in Fackin' Kent and he seemed upset, why?
You are a Londoner if you were brought up there, it doesn't really matter whether you were born there, the point it that to be a Londoner you have to grow up there, why, because it informs your whole world yiew and development, not something that can happen if you rock up after you're eighteen
When I used to travel to the 'sticks' and meet people my age I was always struck by how immature they were, that is what London does to the young, that is the difference between growing up in a metropolis and nowheresville.
I could give you many other examples, such as growing up alongside the most famous musicians in the world at the time, one has a different perspective.
Of course you are right.0 -
Who said it was? Its a big city comprised of lots of townsrcs1000 said:
I was born in Isleworth in West London, and have spent all but about nine years of my life in the capital.isam said:
The point is that people born and raised in London (real Londoners in my book) feel differently about the speed, and amount of change in their hometown than people who came to live in London as a choice. Asa a rule of thumb, if someone living in London says they love the everchanging communities, vibrant multiculture, the cute little Polish deli etc etc they weren't born and raised in London.. eg Stella CreasyBobaFett said:More's to the point has ISam managed to launch some form of pink star badge system to denote non-Londoner Londoners yet? I will wear mine with, erm, pride, along with 5 in 6 other Londoners. I will make sure I don't visit Canning Town however, as his mates will beat me up.
As @SwissBob , who is a Londoner, says, its cool to say you are a Londoner, that's why people who come to live there as an adult, like you SeanT and TSE, get the hump when people point out they aren't real Londoners.
Its not an insult. I have always lived in a London borough, was brought up in one, played football in the East London Cup at School, but really its Essex, and if I moved into town and started saying I was a Londoner, which carries a lot ,more weight than saying "from Essex", my mates would rip the piss out of me.
But - with the exception of four or five years in Aldgate - my experience is entirely in Central, West, and North West London. East Ham and Stratford are as foreign to me - or probably more foreign -than Reading or Oxford.
London is not one town.0 -
Oh is Richard Tyndall the arbiter of whats what then?!TheScreamingEagles said:As someone who lived and worked in London for nearly five years, I considered myself a Londoner after a while.
Richard Tyndall and I had a very illuminating chat last year, about what it means to be English/British, and he was right when, and I paraphrase, it doesn't, matter what your birth certificate or passport says, it's all about your state of mind.
As he said, if you embrace and love the country, then you're British/English, same applies to London and being a Londoner.
Think what you like I guess, but I take it you're not a Londoner anymore because you live up north? A real Londoner is a Londoner wherever they live now.0 -
BLUE ON BLUE INCOMING:
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/isabel-hardman/2014/04/maria-miller-and-the-anatomy-of-a-tory-row/0 -
I guess the point I'm making is that there talking about 'Londoners' is a difficult concept (even if we accept the 'grown up here' requirement) on the basis that there is not a lot in terms of outlook that connects the guy in Richmond-upon-Thames and the guy in Thamesmead.isam said:Who said it was? Its a big city comprised of lots of towns
Most people I know, if you asked where they came from, would say 'London' as a short-hand, but would really mean 'Golders Green', or 'Queens Park', or 'Notting Hill'.
What do you think is the defining characteristic (in terms of attitude and worldview, rather than in terms of longitude and latitude of delivery location) that defines 'a Londoner'?0 -
I've always enjoyed Richard's contribution.isam said:
Oh is Richard Tyndall the arbiter of whats what then?!TheScreamingEagles said:As someone who lived and worked in London for nearly five years, I considered myself a Londoner after a while.
Richard Tyndall and I had a very illuminating chat last year, about what it means to be English/British, and he was right when, and I paraphrase, it doesn't, matter what your birth certificate or passport says, it's all about your state of mind.
As he said, if you embrace and love the country, then you're British/English, same applies to London and being a Londoner.
Think what you like I guess, but I take it you're not a Londoner anymore because you live up north? A real Londoner is a Londoner wherever they live now.
Just like you're the arbiter of what constitutes a Londoner.
As I said, when I lived and worked in London, I considered myself a Londoner, as I loved the city and the opportunities it gave me.
Where else could I see the plays We Will Rock You and Mamma Mia on a daily basis?0 -
You do know Isabel's about 16, right?compouter2 said:0 -
Just read: http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/ed-miliband-middle-britain-has-been-hollowed-out-and-cut-off-from-the-benefits-of-growth-9242447.html
Poor stuff.
A few repeated cost-of-living -crisis/they-just-don't-get-it soundbites and absolutely nothing of any substance.
0 -
On topic, generally agree. Caveats that make it a bit harder for Labour to maintain their seat advantage as their vote share grows:
1) Incumbency makes it hard for Labour to gain seats if their increase on 2010 is small.
2) To the extent that they were getting tactical LibDem support in marginal seats in 2010, that'll already be baked into their national share, as those people are now identifying as Lab and no longer need to be tactical about it.0 -
"The point is that people born and raised in London (real Londoners in my book) feel differently about the speed, and amount of change in their hometown than people who came to live in London as a choice. Asa a rule of thumb, if someone living in London says they love the everchanging communities, vibrant multiculture, the cute little Polish deli etc etc they weren't born and raised in London.. eg Stella Creasy"
As a Londoner born and bred I can say with 100% confidence this is absolute bollocks.
0 -
Born and raised in London, went to school there means you are a Londoner. I would think the worldviews of these people would cover the whole spectrumrcs1000 said:
I guess the point I'm making is that there talking about 'Londoners' is a difficult concept (even if we accept the 'grown up here' requirement) on the basis that there is not a lot in terms of outlook that connects the guy in Richmond-upon-Thames and the guy in Thamesmead.isam said:Who said it was? Its a big city comprised of lots of towns
Most people I know, if you asked where they came from, would say 'London' as a short-hand, but would really mean 'Golders Green', or 'Queens Park', or 'Notting Hill'.
What do you think is the defining characteristic (in terms of attitude and worldview, rather than in terms of longitude and latitude of delivery location) that defines 'a Londoner'?0 -
It's all good fun though, isn't it. Dave under pressure from people in his party to sack her, not knowing to do. The Chingford skinhead weighing in, one of the groups called Conservative Grassroots (there is actually two groups called the same name, how quaint, I am amazed they still have enough members) want her ousted with immediate effect. Nothing like a good old Tory in fight.Charles said:
You do know Isabel's about 16, right?compouter2 said:0 -
So, effectively, it's not possible for anyone who went to a private boarding school (except Harrow) to be a Londoner?isam said:
Born and raised in London, went to school there means you are a Londoner. I would think the worldviews of these people would cover the whole spectrumrcs1000 said:
I guess the point I'm making is that there talking about 'Londoners' is a difficult concept (even if we accept the 'grown up here' requirement) on the basis that there is not a lot in terms of outlook that connects the guy in Richmond-upon-Thames and the guy in Thamesmead.isam said:Who said it was? Its a big city comprised of lots of towns
Most people I know, if you asked where they came from, would say 'London' as a short-hand, but would really mean 'Golders Green', or 'Queens Park', or 'Notting Hill'.
What do you think is the defining characteristic (in terms of attitude and worldview, rather than in terms of longitude and latitude of delivery location) that defines 'a Londoner'?0 -
Your last sentence is 100% bollocksSouthamObserver said:"The point is that people born and raised in London (real Londoners in my book) feel differently about the speed, and amount of change in their hometown than people who came to live in London as a choice. Asa a rule of thumb, if someone living in London says they love the everchanging communities, vibrant multiculture, the cute little Polish deli etc etc they weren't born and raised in London.. eg Stella Creasy"
As a Londoner born and bred I can say with 100% confidence this is absolute bollocks.
You would never agree with anything I said on point of principle
But if you want to kid yourself that people born and bred in London are as happy with the pace of change as people who arrived to work then go ahead. Lefty doublethink is a common ailment on here
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2597454/We-Residents-deprived-borough-speak-predicted-Britain-need-Manchester-absorb-immigration.html0 -
Leicester has a strong claim to being the dullest city in the country!foxinsoxuk said:@TFS
At least some of those Londoners will get to see the delights of Leicester next season. Man United and Arsenal fans can come up to visit the pearl of the midlands. For those who havent travelled beyond the Watford gap : here be monsters....TwistedFireStopper said:Is this thread going to turn into another "I'm more Cockney than you" war between self obsessed faux Londoners? There's loads of good stuff in the News, but they'd rather talk about how they stayed overnight in the Bestest Place in the Entire Universe, and now London counts them as one of it's own.
0 -
More right wing propaganda...
The economic problems of so-called "squeezed middle" families – those on low to middle incomes – have been exaggerated, according to new analysis which concludes that many have thrived since the beginning of the economic downturn in 2008.
http://www.theguardian.com/money/2014/apr/06/squeezed-middle-prospered-thinktank
The Social Market Foundation (SMF), an independent thinktank, will challenge the prevailing view that this group has been stuck in a negative spiral of declining real wages and lack of hope, and assert that as a group it has demonstrated "remarkable resilience", with more than four in 10 families moving up the income scale.0 -
No its possible of course. I have friends who went to Marlborough who were born and raised in Holland Park are 100% LondonersCharles said:
So, effectively, it's not possible for anyone who went to a private boarding school (except Harrow) to be a Londoner?isam said:
Born and raised in London, went to school there means you are a Londoner. I would think the worldviews of these people would cover the whole spectrumrcs1000 said:
I guess the point I'm making is that there talking about 'Londoners' is a difficult concept (even if we accept the 'grown up here' requirement) on the basis that there is not a lot in terms of outlook that connects the guy in Richmond-upon-Thames and the guy in Thamesmead.isam said:Who said it was? Its a big city comprised of lots of towns
Most people I know, if you asked where they came from, would say 'London' as a short-hand, but would really mean 'Golders Green', or 'Queens Park', or 'Notting Hill'.
What do you think is the defining characteristic (in terms of attitude and worldview, rather than in terms of longitude and latitude of delivery location) that defines 'a Londoner'?0 -
So going to school there is not a criteria?isam said:
No its possible of course. I have friends who went to Marlborough who were born and raised in Holland Park are 100% LondonersCharles said:
So, effectively, it's not possible for anyone who went to a private boarding school (except Harrow) to be a Londoner?isam said:
Born and raised in London, went to school there means you are a Londoner. I would think the worldviews of these people would cover the whole spectrumrcs1000 said:
I guess the point I'm making is that there talking about 'Londoners' is a difficult concept (even if we accept the 'grown up here' requirement) on the basis that there is not a lot in terms of outlook that connects the guy in Richmond-upon-Thames and the guy in Thamesmead.isam said:Who said it was? Its a big city comprised of lots of towns
Most people I know, if you asked where they came from, would say 'London' as a short-hand, but would really mean 'Golders Green', or 'Queens Park', or 'Notting Hill'.
What do you think is the defining characteristic (in terms of attitude and worldview, rather than in terms of longitude and latitude of delivery location) that defines 'a Londoner'?0 -
Heh heh Charles. Maybe so. Or possibly it's also a free associated expression of my puzzlement, dedicated maybe to H. Sapiens, the species that doesn't seem quite ready to make it.Charles said:
Not another post on London!Toms said:Many years ago I visited the Bristol zoo. For me it was not a pleasant experience, for many reasons.
In particular, several big cats were kept in small abutting cages, each with a door that could allow a selected individual access to a larger enclosure. But the individual allowed to promenade in the latter enclosure, constrained by its mindset, only padding around in the smaller space of its own cage.
;-)
I note that I'm coming up to 200. I'll have to break out a bottle 2nite.0 -
I don't think I would put any politics bets for the 2015 GE until after the EU election and Scots referendum. If UKIP do very well in the EU elections, this may be a springboard into the GE with some Tory voters sticking with them. If the Scots vote for independence, Cameron may be forced to resign, as the PM who let the union break up. Labour may be in a stronger position following these votes. Too many uncertainties I think.0
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Oh look, Im not saying that it is better or worse to be what I define as a Londoner, just that those people have different views on the changing face of London, hence they generally move out, while the people from somewhere else like the change, otherwise they wouldn't move in.TheScreamingEagles said:
I've always enjoyed Richard's contribution.isam said:
Oh is Richard Tyndall the arbiter of whats what then?!TheScreamingEagles said:As someone who lived and worked in London for nearly five years, I considered myself a Londoner after a while.
Richard Tyndall and I had a very illuminating chat last year, about what it means to be English/British, and he was right when, and I paraphrase, it doesn't, matter what your birth certificate or passport says, it's all about your state of mind.
As he said, if you embrace and love the country, then you're British/English, same applies to London and being a Londoner.
Think what you like I guess, but I take it you're not a Londoner anymore because you live up north? A real Londoner is a Londoner wherever they live now.
Just like you're the arbiter of what constitutes a Londoner.
As I said, when I lived and worked in London, I considered myself a Londoner, as I loved the city and the opportunities it gave me.
Where else could I see the plays We Will Rock You and Mamma Mia on a daily basis?
I lived in inner London for a few years and it was great, but I would have been embarrassed saying to the people that lived in that area their whole life that I was one of them, in the main because I wasnt0 -
Why does it matter if people sees themselves as a Londoners or not? If people want to belong to the capital enough to call themselves a 'Londoner', then surely that can only be a good thing? It shows they want to belong to the thriving metropolis, that they feel it is a home.
Good on them.0 -
If you spend your time looking for people who feel upset, dispossessed and left behind then you will find them. And there is no doubt that some people born and bred in London are concerned and distressed about the pace of change. But they are not all the people born in London and there is absolutely no evidence that they are close to a majority.isam said:
Your last sentence is 100% bollocksSouthamObserver said:"The point is that people born and raised in London (real Londoners in my book) feel differently about the speed, and amount of change in their hometown than people who came to live in London as a choice. Asa a rule of thumb, if someone living in London says they love the everchanging communities, vibrant multiculture, the cute little Polish deli etc etc they weren't born and raised in London.. eg Stella Creasy"
As a Londoner born and bred I can say with 100% confidence this is absolute bollocks.
You would never agree with anything I said on point of principle
But if you want to kid yourself that people born and bred in London are as happy with the pace of change as people who arrived to work then go ahead. Lefty doublethink is a common ailment on here
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2597454/We-Residents-deprived-borough-speak-predicted-Britain-need-Manchester-absorb-immigration.html
I disagree with you because I was born in London into a family that has been in London for generations and I have never heard anyone that I know even mention the things that you claim "real Londoners" feel. And I have never heard anyone I know dismiss someone's claim to be a Londoner simply because they were not born there. You seem to know a particular type of person. I have no doubt that they are sincere. But they are not everyone. Far from it. And if it comforts you to believe that I am only saying these things because I am a "Lefty" involved in doublethink, please go ahead and believe that. It will not make you right.
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OT, Rentoul on Maria Miller:
http://blogs.independent.co.uk/2014/04/06/in-partial-defence-of-maria-miller/0 -
BLUE ON BLUE INCOMING:
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/469048/Lord-Tebbit-has-called-for-Maria-Miller-to-quit-over-the-continuing-expenses-scandal
Don't listen to them Maria, hang in there.0 -
One can only say "Sad Bob"Swiss_Bob said:
I just find it rather sad, I've travelled a bit and one of the most common questions asked is 'where are you from', to which I answer, I'm a Londoner but live in Geneva, even after twenty years here I would never say I am 'from Geneva' or a Genevan.TwistedFireStopper said:Is this thread going to turn into another "I'm more Cockney than you" war between self obsessed faux Londoners? There's loads of good stuff in the News, but they'd rather talk about how they stayed overnight in the Bestest Place in the Entire Universe, and now London counts them as one of it's own.
Be honest, being from London is cool and that's why people want to claim it as their own.0 -
@iSam
Where would you suggest I say I am from? I was born in one city, but never lived there. Lived in a satellite town of my birthplace until I was eight, moved to another city, in which I lived until age 18, then moved again, to another city, where I stayed until I was in my late twenties then moved to London. People have multiple identities - it's nothing to do with being "cool". Strangely, your insular attitudes are more reminiscent of a parochial provincial than a Londoner.0 -
For all the PBMockneys.
http://sexdrugssausagerolls.wordpress.com/2010/05/30/the-10-signs-that-you’ve-become-a-londoner/0 -
You tell em Rentoul.edmundintokyo said:OT, Rentoul on Maria Miller:
http://blogs.independent.co.uk/2014/04/06/in-partial-defence-of-maria-miller/0 -
TSE or even Scottish / ScottishTheScreamingEagles said:As someone who lived and worked in London for nearly five years, I considered myself a Londoner after a while.
Richard Tyndall and I had a very illuminating chat last year, about what it means to be English/British, and he was right when, and I paraphrase, it doesn't, matter what your birth certificate or passport says, it's all about your state of mind.
As he said, if you embrace and love the country, then you're British/English, same applies to London and being a Londoner.0 -
Well going to boarding school and coming back in the holidays to your family home in London is different to having gone to a comprehensive in Manchester, lived in Manchester and come to London for the first time at 18.Charles said:
So going to school there is not a criteria?isam said:
No its possible of course. I have friends who went to Marlborough who were born and raised in Holland Park are 100% LondonersCharles said:
So, effectively, it's not possible for anyone who went to a private boarding school (except Harrow) to be a Londoner?isam said:
Born and raised in London, went to school there means you are a Londoner. I would think the worldviews of these people would cover the whole spectrumrcs1000 said:
I guess the point I'm making is that there talking about 'Londoners' is a difficult concept (even if we accept the 'grown up here' requirement) on the basis that there is not a lot in terms of outlook that connects the guy in Richmond-upon-Thames and the guy in Thamesmead.isam said:Who said it was? Its a big city comprised of lots of towns
Most people I know, if you asked where they came from, would say 'London' as a short-hand, but would really mean 'Golders Green', or 'Queens Park', or 'Notting Hill'.
What do you think is the defining characteristic (in terms of attitude and worldview, rather than in terms of longitude and latitude of delivery location) that defines 'a Londoner'?
Put it this way to avoid confusion...
In my book, people who cannot call themselves Londoners are those who weren't born there, didn't live there as a child, and didn't go to school there0
