Categories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » CON has a good chance of coming out top on votes: holding a
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » CON has a good chance of coming out top on votes: holding and winning seats is going to be a lot more challenging
As we get closer to May 7th 2015, election day, I think that two things will happen that will boost the blue vote total from current polling levels: a significant proportion of the CON-UKIP switchers will return as will many of the GE2010 CON voters who are currently saying “don’t know”.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
Oh, and second.
Born in Hammersmith hospital and went to school in W4, that's a London postcode. My friend who grew up in Bromley thought he was a Londoner, I reminded him that Bromley was in Fackin' Kent and he seemed upset, why?
You are a Londoner if you were brought up there, it doesn't really matter whether you were born there, the point it that to be a Londoner you have to grow up there, why, because it informs your whole world yiew and development, not something that can happen if you rock up after you're eighteen
When I used to travel to the 'sticks' and meet people my age I was always struck by how immature they were, that is what London does to the young, that is the difference between growing up in a metropolis and nowheresville.
I could give you many other examples, such as growing up alongside the most famous musicians in the world at the time, one has a different perspective.
But suppose he's, say, 10-20 seats short of an overall majority whilst being 30-40 ahead of the Tories. If he's wise he'll offer Cammo a "grand coalition" (perhaps for two or so years only) and then the question becomes, should Cammo accept?
And those of us who think the blame game is bad enough now should wait to see what the Mail and the Guardian make of it then. The 1970s mutterings of a military coup might rise from the grave. But be sure of this - there won't be such a coup unless OGH has got on at 8/1 first!
2 hours
PS. Thanks for all the kind words on my post last night. I'm off to Devon (early) this morning, but it's a theme I will probably return to in future posts.
(Note: I've just noted Innocent Abroad's comment below, which is similar, and I simply don't know the answer to a grand coalition. I'd lean towards no, simply because I think Cameron wouldn't see the year out if he lost and I can't see any other Tory leader agreeing to it. On my figures, we'd get a weakish Lab-LibDem coalition. Probably with another electoral reform offering for the Commons.)
Startlingly good figures from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) on new vehicle registrations in March and year to date. March recorded the second highest number of new cars registered since the current twice-yearly plate change was introduced in 1999.
Headline stats from SMMT:
• Demand for new 14-plate sees March reach 464,824 new car registrations, a rise of 17.7%.
• Since move to twice-yearly plate change in 1999, only March 2004 saw higher registrations (at 466,954).
• Year-to-date registrations up 13.7% to 688,122 units.
• March is typically the biggest month in a year accounting for almost a fifth of full-year registrations.
• Biggest-ever month for alternatively-fuelled vehicles as volumes reach 8,713 units, growth of 63.8% on 2013.
High car registrations are somewhat two edged on their impact on the general economy. They demonstrate increasiing consumer confidence; rising supply of and demand for credit finance; as well as willingness to draw down savings and/or increases in disposable income. All positive indicators of a recovering economy.
But as most of the cars purchased are imported, and even those manufactured in the UK use a substantial amount of intermediate imports, the positive impact on UK trade figures is minimal.
Some interesting supplementary stats though on changes in patterns of purchase over the past decade:
• Segments: Market has shifted towards smaller cars (Mini and Supermini segments) and Dual Purpose and MPV segments.
• Fuel efficiency: Average mpg has improved 35%, from 42.4mpg to 57.2mpg, since March 2004.
• CO2 emissions: Average new car CO2 emissions are 26% lower than a decade ago. In March 2014, 67.2% of the market was below 130g/km, so paid no VED in the first year, compared with 6.5% in March 2004.
Less flashy, more efficient and greener. You can tell we are living under a Tory led government.
Hang in there Maria!
Lefties never learn and much damage might be done by encouraging practice.
Is London really one town?
Are the denizens of Primrose Hill (even the ones who've been there 100 years or so...) really that similar to the residents of East Ham?
What is the unifying factor between the residents of Aldgate, Blackheath and Chelsea? Other than a recognition that - by and large - change, instability, insecurity and opportunity have been good for them? Those that find the continual process of reinvention uncomfortable, tend to depart, leaving those who remain ever more committed to the cycle of creation and destruction.
If you have come to live in (as opposed to study, visit, invade) London, no matter for how short a time and no matter from whence you came, you are a Londoner.
And welcome to you.
I must admit, the blues topping the poll is a realistic possibility (top three parties could come in any order), and I'm greatly surprised by that.
F1: post-race analysis for one of the best races in years is up here:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2014/04/bahrain-post-race-analysis.html
The total assets of British lenders have dropped 25 percent over five years to 5.2 trillion pounds [i.e. around three times UK annual GDP], while capital reserves have been boosted by 93 billion pounds, [KPMG] said in a report today. Since 2008, the banks have faced about 28.5 billion pounds of costs for litigation, fines and customer compensation, it said.
And most important of all, especially for Mr. Brooke, was the statement by the senior KPMG executive publishing the report:
“Most board members of U.K. banks have taken on their roles post crisis and are committed to making the changes required,” David Sayer, global head of banking at KPMG, said in the statement. “We must give bank management time to deliver, which will help restore the trust, viability and reputation of the banks.”
Well planned, soundly paced and always progressing to a positive conclusion. That's the way the Tories do it.
30 minutes 30 seconds
Tubes, surely.
On thread, Ted Heath did it in 1974 but I still expect Cammo to come out clear winner and Basingstoke to return a Tory MP with a healthy majority.
http://www.irishtimes.com/news/social-affairs/support-for-same-sex-marriage-increasing-poll-finds-1.1752448
Paddy Power has a few markets on the referendum but I cant say any of them strike me as value right now.
Maldonado has a 5 place grid penalty for China. This compares to the 10 place grid penalty Ricciardo got for not serving his drive-through penalty following an unsafe release in Malaysia.
Still, at least he visited Gutierrez in hospital:
twiitter.com/TimBridgman/status/452886112571514880/photo/1
I topped up with Ladbrokes.
Be honest, being from London is cool and that's why people want to claim it as their own.
In particular, several big cats were kept in small abutting cages, each with a door that could allow a selected individual access to a larger enclosure. But the individual allowed to promenade in the latter enclosure, constrained by its mindset, only padding around in the smaller space of its own cage.
At least some of those Londoners will get to see the delights of Leicester next season. Man United and Arsenal fans can come up to visit the pearl of the midlands. For those who havent travelled beyond the Watford gap : here be monsters....
Yougov shows 14% of 2010 LDs have gone to the Tories, so they should win some LD seats and a lead of 3% or more should see them largest party. If the Tories win on votes and Labour on seats, then either losing seats Clegg will hold even more sway in 2015 and literally be the kingmaker
11 minutes 11 seconds
I might combine it with a thread on electoral reform, I know PBers get very passionate when discussing electoral reform
This will be photo I used in the thread about why sex is better under the Tories
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-_T3hDmOLYwc/UbTWv0i__4I/AAAAAAAAHx4/b43dIcc1r7Y/s1600/mouth+one+square+1.jpg
I sympathise with Grosjean, though. He's a very good driver.
Richard Tyndall and I had a very illuminating chat last year, about what it means to be English/British, and he was right when, and I paraphrase, it doesn't, matter what your birth certificate or passport says, it's all about your state of mind.
As he said, if you embrace and love the country, then you're British/English, same applies to London and being a Londoner.
http://www.theguardian.com/sport/2014/apr/06/sebastian-vettel-attack-ron-dennis-f1-new-look
Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum told Newsmax he is "seriously looking at" another run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2016.
http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/RickSantorum-2016-gop-presidential/2014/04/05/id/563866/
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to JNN the contents of the latest 2015 ARSE General Election projection :
Con 302 .. Lab 278 .. LibDem 38 .. SNP 8 .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. Ukip 2 .. Respect 0 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1
Conservatives 24 seats short of a majority.
.........................................................................................
WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
JNN - Jacobite News Network
ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors
Very impressive.
Imagine the fighting if the Tories get most votes, but Labour get most seats, with the Lib Dems as Kingmakers. It'll be weeks of sport.
Belgium, I mean Belgium
The only good thing about Belgium, apart from Simon Mignolet, TinTin, Poirot, and D'hondt PR, is that it was created to annoy les grenouilles
"Just gibberish. http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/ed-miliband-middle-britain-has-been-hollowed-out-and-cut-off-from-the-benefits-of-growth-9242447.html …"
Labour's Scottish advantage is now 40 seats, whereas in the 1950s through the 1970s it was much more even-stevens between the major parties, meaning Scotland had less of an impact on the overall result, unless it was exceptionally close.
The increased divergence of Scotland, combined with the rise of third parties, and the reduced exaggerative quality of FPTP (fewer marginals), mean that the loss of Scotland could well impact on future elections to a far higher degree than it ever would have done in the past...
No one has a crystal ball, but it really is complacent to quote election results from yesteryear, when the political geography of the UK is now hugely different to what it was then.
Also, please don't go into spoilers or hints about Game of Thrones. I know you haven't, but the first opportunity I'll have to watch it will be in just under a year and I prefer going in as blind as possible. [I have read the books, but there are some differences and I've forgotten half of what happens].
Speaking of books [seamless segue], my first traditionally published story should be out within a few weeks. It's a short story, entitled Saxon & Khan, and is part of the Malevolence: Tales from Beyond the Veil anthology (which you can preorder here): http://shop.ticketyboopress.co.uk/index.php?id_product=1&controller=product
It's set (partly) in London, now I come to think of it.
So you read books, and forgot half of what happens?
No wonder you think Hannibal is brilliant :-)
At least I only forget half. You forget the Queen of Bithynia's glorious first foray into foreign policy, losing to new recruits with his own veterans at Dyrrachium and then getting killed by his own side. There's not much of Caesar left to remember after that.
Caesar was so brilliant, they named a month after him, whereas they named a cannibal after Hannibal.
Also, beating the French in warfare has been done quite often.
The leader of the A-Team was named after Hannibal.
That said, I've only been to Islington* and North London about 3 times in my life...
* Technically the HAC is in Islington, but I'm excluding that as it's spiritual home is somewhere in Fulham...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Honourable_Artillery_Company
For nerds, who aren't aware of them, the HAC are way cool. The below is from Wiki. Before reading it, bear in mind that these are part-time volunteer reservists who work in the City during the day. And that the average number of university degree per head is 1.7 ...
Comprising a team of six specialist soldiers, the role of STA Patrols is to conduct high risk static covert surveillance at long range and in close proximity to the enemy. The patrols are trained and equipped both to collect highly granular information and intelligence and to deliver joint effects at range; be they kinetic (all patrols contain personnel trained in the delivery of precision and indirect fires) or non-kinetic.
Basically, they go and hang out behind enemy lines and call down artillery fire on troop movements...
New Populus VI: Lab 37 (=); Cons 34 (+1); LD 9 (-1); UKIP 14 (+1); Oth 7 (=)
Budget Bounce restored?
;-)
Perfect analogy for Hannibal.
As @SwissBob , who is a Londoner, says, its cool to say you are a Londoner, that's why people who come to live there as an adult, like you SeanT and TSE, get the hump when people point out they aren't real Londoners.
Its not an insult. I have always lived in a London borough, was brought up in one, played football in the East London Cup at School, but really its Essex, and if I moved into town and started saying I was a Londoner, which carries a lot ,more weight than saying "from Essex", my mates would rip the piss out of me.
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/arts-entertainment/new-game-of-thrones-is-just-everyone-introducing-themselves-2014040185238
But - with the exception of four or five years in Aldgate - my experience is entirely in Central, West, and North West London. East Ham and Stratford are as foreign to me - or probably more foreign -than Reading or Oxford.
London is not one town.
Of course you are right.
Think what you like I guess, but I take it you're not a Londoner anymore because you live up north? A real Londoner is a Londoner wherever they live now.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/isabel-hardman/2014/04/maria-miller-and-the-anatomy-of-a-tory-row/
Most people I know, if you asked where they came from, would say 'London' as a short-hand, but would really mean 'Golders Green', or 'Queens Park', or 'Notting Hill'.
What do you think is the defining characteristic (in terms of attitude and worldview, rather than in terms of longitude and latitude of delivery location) that defines 'a Londoner'?
Just like you're the arbiter of what constitutes a Londoner.
As I said, when I lived and worked in London, I considered myself a Londoner, as I loved the city and the opportunities it gave me.
Where else could I see the plays We Will Rock You and Mamma Mia on a daily basis?
Poor stuff.
A few repeated cost-of-living -crisis/they-just-don't-get-it soundbites and absolutely nothing of any substance.
1) Incumbency makes it hard for Labour to gain seats if their increase on 2010 is small.
2) To the extent that they were getting tactical LibDem support in marginal seats in 2010, that'll already be baked into their national share, as those people are now identifying as Lab and no longer need to be tactical about it.
As a Londoner born and bred I can say with 100% confidence this is absolute bollocks.
You would never agree with anything I said on point of principle
But if you want to kid yourself that people born and bred in London are as happy with the pace of change as people who arrived to work then go ahead. Lefty doublethink is a common ailment on here
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2597454/We-Residents-deprived-borough-speak-predicted-Britain-need-Manchester-absorb-immigration.html
I note that I'm coming up to 200. I'll have to break out a bottle 2nite.
I lived in inner London for a few years and it was great, but I would have been embarrassed saying to the people that lived in that area their whole life that I was one of them, in the main because I wasnt
Good on them.
I disagree with you because I was born in London into a family that has been in London for generations and I have never heard anyone that I know even mention the things that you claim "real Londoners" feel. And I have never heard anyone I know dismiss someone's claim to be a Londoner simply because they were not born there. You seem to know a particular type of person. I have no doubt that they are sincere. But they are not everyone. Far from it. And if it comforts you to believe that I am only saying these things because I am a "Lefty" involved in doublethink, please go ahead and believe that. It will not make you right.
http://blogs.independent.co.uk/2014/04/06/in-partial-defence-of-maria-miller/
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/469048/Lord-Tebbit-has-called-for-Maria-Miller-to-quit-over-the-continuing-expenses-scandal
Don't listen to them Maria, hang in there.
Where would you suggest I say I am from? I was born in one city, but never lived there. Lived in a satellite town of my birthplace until I was eight, moved to another city, in which I lived until age 18, then moved again, to another city, where I stayed until I was in my late twenties then moved to London. People have multiple identities - it's nothing to do with being "cool". Strangely, your insular attitudes are more reminiscent of a parochial provincial than a Londoner.
http://sexdrugssausagerolls.wordpress.com/2010/05/30/the-10-signs-that-you’ve-become-a-londoner/
Put it this way to avoid confusion...
In my book, people who cannot call themselves Londoners are those who weren't born there, didn't live there as a child, and didn't go to school there