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First!!0
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5% Labour lead (39% vs 34%) according to the latest YouGov Polling Report. The would-be crossover looks to be light years away.0
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Not sure the evidence supports your claim "the budget bounce is over".
Surely more likely is that the Tories gained some from the budget (partially offset by Royal Mail) and then Farage gained some (mainly from the Tories) from the EU debate? I suspect the Tories would be worse off if the budget hadn't been so effective...0 -
That 8/1 from Ladbrokes for Labour winning 351 - 375 GE seats is still available, mmm ..... looks tasty!
DYOR0 -
That would be about 90 gains, wouldn't it? Seat moves as big as that are quite rare.
4/1 on 326-350 though may be a better option.peter_from_putney said:That 8/1 from Ladbrokes for Labour winning 351 - 375 GE seats is still available, mmm ..... looks tasty!
DYOR0 -
Uncharacteristic silence from me for two days - I've been staying in a house which turned out to be without internet access. Just temporarily accessing at the moment - back to normal tomorrow night. Apologies to Diplomacy allies!
On topic, as I said in Budget week that Labour's vote was quite constant in the 37-40 range with YG, it's only fair to say it's not going up either. I think there's a quite stable underlying position - approaching 40% simply want to get the government out and there's only one obvious way to do that; they aren't influenced by budgets, leader ratings or anything else much. The Tory challenge is to exceed that. If they can get to 41 or so, it should be possible. But is that credible?0 -
FPT:
Errrr... the answer being that, as a country, we have very few referendum?Ninoinoz said:And if it was supported by a substantial majority of the public, why no referendum? I think you know the answer.
Here is a list of some other things we don't have referendum on:
1. Whether murder should be illegal
2. Whether Chelsea is the best football team
etc etc etc0 -
Incidentally, what happens to these bets if the number of seats changes, such as no GE in Scotland following a Yes vote?foxinsoxuk said:
That would be about 90 gains, wouldn't it? Seat moves as big as that are quite rare.
4/1 on 326-350 though may be a better option.peter_from_putney said:That 8/1 from Ladbrokes for Labour winning 351 - 375 GE seats is still available, mmm ..... looks tasty!
DYOR0 -
Good evening, everyone.
Mr. Palmer, I'm watching that game to see how people who understand the rules do things. I was horrified to see someone in the Shoutbox compare you to Ed Miliband.
F1: no spoilers, but if you're the sort who sometimes watches F1 highlights and sometimes doesn't, today is a day you definitely should.0 -
Aye, DYOR. Then do some more...peter_from_putney said:That 8/1 from Ladbrokes for Labour winning 351 - 375 GE seats is still available, mmm ..... looks tasty!
DYOR
i) Polls this far out are pants as predictors.
ii) Under FPTP, seats shift at least twice as fast as the votes do...
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The importance of cracking down on crime from an early age: http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2014/04/05/mohammed_musa_nine_month_old_boy_accused_of_murder_in_pakistan.html
And can I recommend those PBers with a mathematical or programming bent check out: http://projecteuler.net/about0 -
If only I had 10 extra lifetimes, I would, honestly!rcs1000 said:
And can I recommend those PBers with a mathematical or programming bent check out: http://projecteuler.net/about
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Can still back a Lab Majority at 2.72 on Betfair and Lab most seats at 1.770
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Hope people managed to take advantage of the ridiculously generous prices for 18:00-18:59 yesterday. Profitable day but I'd be gladder if Cambridge had won.0
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I only listened to it, but it was a great race. I'll definitely be staying up late to watch the highlights.Morris_Dancer said:Good evening, everyone.
F1: no spoilers, but if you're the sort who sometimes watches F1 highlights and sometimes doesn't, today is a day you definitely should.
If you go onto YouTube, you can find a video of the most dangerous moment of the race. It's quite spectacular. I'd give Estaban a nine for style, and eight for execution. ;-)0 -
Mr Dancer my 10 year old grandson has gone to watch the race, courtesy of his father. His first experience of F1.Morris_Dancer said:Good evening, everyone.
F1: no spoilers, but if you're the sort who sometimes watches F1 highlights and sometimes doesn't, today is a day you definitely should.
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You sticking to your May 1 crossover forecast Rod?RodCrosby said:
Aye, DYOR. Then do some more...peter_from_putney said:That 8/1 from Ladbrokes for Labour winning 351 - 375 GE seats is still available, mmm ..... looks tasty!
DYOR
i) Polls this far out are pants as predictors.
ii) Under FPTP, seats shift at least twice as fast as the votes do...
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Mr. Jessop, I actually watched the race (for unexpected reasons I was able to see it on Sky), so I've already seen it. My views on the empty-headed Maldonado are well-known.0
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I still think it's wrong for Labour people to get complacent despite the poll situation improving a bit. You're right that there's a solid block of approaching 40% who hate the current government and won't be voting for either coalition party no matter what, but Labour's grip on those voters is extremely shaky, as shown by the extremely poor specific questions about Labour (not just Miliband's personal ratings -- there was a poll last week which showed a huge proportion of nominal Labour supporters agreed that the party was out of touch with "normal people" and that their plans were too timid and/or they hadn't set out what they stood for). And I think it's far too relaxed to assume that (a) all those voters will even bother turning out next year, and (b) that they won't drift off to another small party because they're so unenthused by Labour.NickPalmer said:Uncharacteristic silence from me for two days - I've been staying in a house which turned out to be without internet access. Just temporarily accessing at the moment - back to normal tomorrow night. Apologies to Diplomacy allies!
On topic, as I said in Budget week that Labour's vote was quite constant in the 37-40 range with YG, it's only fair to say it's not going up either. I think there's a quite stable underlying position - approaching 40% simply want to get the government out and there's only one obvious way to do that; they aren't influenced by budgets, leader ratings or anything else much. The Tory challenge is to exceed that. If they can get to 41 or so, it should be possible. But is that credible?
Also, as I've said a million times, despite the delusional media wittering on about how Labour has little appeal to so-called "Middle England", the real weakspot in their support is among working-class so-called "core" Labour voters (the type who voted for them even in 2010 which has led the leadership to complacently assume they'll vote for them no matter what) than among middle-class Lib Dem defectors.0 -
King Cole, a cracking race for him to see.0
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I wouldn't disagree with most of that, except the "extremely shaky" bit - if it was that shaky it'd dip sharply now and then when we have a bad week. As for complacency - well, I'm the only candidate in my patch who has been actively canvassing for months, seven hours a week. This weekend is that first I've taken off since Christmas. To use the old phrase, it's a marathon, not a sprint. But, trying to be objective, I do think the market are right to see a Tory lead as very unlikely.Danny565 said:
I still think it's wrong for Labour people to get complacent despite the poll situation improving a bit. You're right that there's a solid block of approaching 40% who hate the current government and won't be voting for either coalition party no matter what, but Labour's grip on those voters is extremely shaky, as shown by the extremely poor specific questions about Labour (not just Miliband's personal ratings -- there was a poll last week which showed a huge proportion of nominal Labour supporters agreed that the party was out of touch with "normal people" and that their plans were too timid and/or they hadn't set out what they stood for). And I think it's far too relaxed to assume that (a) all those voters will even bother turning out next year, and (b) that they won't drift off to another small party because they're so unenthused by Labour.NickPalmer said:Uncharacteristic silence from me for two days - I've been staying in a house which turned out to be without internet access. Just temporarily accessing at the moment - back to normal tomorrow night. Apologies to Diplomacy allies!
Also, as I've said a million times, despite the delusional media wittering on about how Labour has little appeal to so-called "Middle England", the real weakspot in their support is among working-class so-called "core" Labour voters (the type who voted for them even in 2010 which has led the leadership to complacently assume they'll vote for them no matter what) than among middle-class Lib Dem defectors.0 -
Lucky you. ;-) I'm trying to get some work done now, to make up for the fact I'll stay up late to watch the GP and sleep in tomorrow morning. I do all my best work before nine o'clock, and get worse as the day goes on...Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Jessop, I actually watched the race (for unexpected reasons I was able to see it on Sky), so I've already seen it. My views on the empty-headed Maldonado are well-known.
Maldonado should have the book thrown at him for that, *unless* it was a car brake issue.
Mercedes are magnificent in every way: the car is brilliant, the drivers both excellent, and the team need rewarding for letting their drivers race even to the end. Red Bull and Ferrari might have a few more supporters if they'd allowed Vettel and Schumacher's team mates do that more often.0 -
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F1: post-race analysis (here there be spoilers, if you're waiting for the highlights, don't click the link):
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2014/04/bahrain-post-race-analysis.html0 -
Mr. Jessop, I still wish it was on the BBC. That organisation's short-sighted stupidity has robbed a great many people of the opportunity to watch a sport which is largely made in Britain.0
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Cllr Marie Rimmer has been selected today by St Helens South CLP as their new PPC.
She has been Labour group leader (and council leader when in power) on St Helens Council for decades until last year when she was ousted by an internal rival. It seemed it was the end of an era for St Helens Labour...but we spoke too soon!
It was an AWS and the other shortlisted candidates were a Manchester Cllr and a Southwark Cllr. She won on first round
She was kept out from 2001 shortlist by NEC (to help Woodward getting the nomination). Now she gets it 13 years later.
She was born in 1947, so the likely oldest member from 2020 new intake0 -
As I mentioned on the previous thread, she's the second oldest woman ever (by a short margin) to be embarking on a parliamentary career...AndreaParma_82 said:Cllr Marie Rimmer has been selected today by St Helens South CLP as their new PPC.
She was born in 1947, so the likely oldest member...
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The Survation poll confirms the findings of the ComRes one: the Scottish Tories look to be in deep trouble.
Euro voting intention - Scotland
Survation
Scottish sub-sample = 97 respondents
(+/- change from Euro 2009)
SNP 48% (+19)
Lab 31% (+10)
UKIP 9% (+4)
Con 6% (-11)
LD 4% (-8)
Grn 1% (-6)
BNP 1% (-2)
ComRes
Scottish sub-sample = 188 respondents
(+/- change from Euro 2009)
SNP 44% (+15)
Lab 26% (+5)
UKIP 8% (+3)
Con 7% (-10)
LD 6% (-6)
BNP 5% (+2)
Grn 4% (-3)
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0
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Malcolm Chisholm MSP is retiring in Edinburgh North & Leith...because Labour today selected a new candidate: Cllr Lesley Hinds0
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Sri Lanka comfortably winning the World t20:20 has the irony that only England beat them in the competition in one of the most thrilling of games.0
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I thought your miracle predictor and Dr. Fisher's based your projections on polls which you now describe this far out as "pants".RodCrosby said:
Aye, DYOR. Then do some more...peter_from_putney said:That 8/1 from Ladbrokes for Labour winning 351 - 375 GE seats is still available, mmm ..... looks tasty!
DYOR
i) Polls this far out are pants as predictors.
ii) Under FPTP, seats shift at least twice as fast as the votes do...
Could that not be said about your projections ?0 -
Hard to see how the ferrets fighting in the BT sack could ever come up with a cogent plan.SeanT said:Re indyref, it should be remembered that NO and BT still have an ace to play.
If the polls narrow very seriously - or YES takes the lead - then I reckon the three Westminster parties will come up with some dramatic offer of Devomax.
Which is what Cameron should've done in the first place, the halfwit that he is.
Remember, they have already tried, and failed, to come up with a united plan for what a 'No' result would mean. Devomax is an impossibility.0 -
He was one of the few intelligent Labour MSPs.AndreaParma_82 said:Malcolm Chisholm MSP is retiring in Edinburgh North & Leith...because Labour today selected a new candidate: Cllr Lesley Hinds
Here are the current odds for the Westminster seat:
Lab 1/20
LD 8/1
SNP 50/1
UKIP 100/1
Con 100/1
Result 2011
Lab (Malcolm Chisholm) 12,858
SNP 12,263
Con 2,928
LD 2,836
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Think he's trying to go for the record of oldest MP in modern times...AndreaParma_82 said:@RodCrosby
Joe Benton is having troubles with his reselection in Bootle.
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But I thought our wise PB analysis said that the European debates wouldn't have any influence on the polls because no-one cares? It's almost like polling changes take a few days to come through, as people mull over their intentions...0
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So what's that - 4 SNP MEPs, 2 LAB?Stuart_Dickson said:The Survation poll confirms the findings of the ComRes one: the Scottish Tories look to be in deep trouble.
Euro voting intention - Scotland
Survation
Scottish sub-sample = 97 respondents
(+/- change from Euro 2009)
SNP 48% (+19)
Lab 31% (+10)
UKIP 9% (+4)
Con 6% (-11)
LD 4% (-8)
Grn 1% (-6)
BNP 1% (-2)
ComRes
Scottish sub-sample = 188 respondents
(+/- change from Euro 2009)
SNP 44% (+15)
Lab 26% (+5)
UKIP 8% (+3)
Con 7% (-10)
LD 6% (-6)
BNP 5% (+2)
Grn 4% (-3)
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You forgot to point out that whilst England is looking for a coach amongst losers, the winning team had an Englishman as the coach.JackW said:Sri Lanka comfortably winning the World t20:20 has the irony that only England beat them in the competition in one of the most thrilling of games.
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The "raw" polls are pants.surbiton said:
I thought your miracle predictor and Dr. Fisher's based your projections on polls which you now describe this far out as "pants".
Could that not be said about your projections ?
That's why it is necessary to work statistical magic on them (Fisher), substitute a better polling indicator (Lebo & Norpoth), or ignore them completely (Swingback, and Chris Prosser's local elections model)...0 -
The Survation Aberdeenshire sub sample of 1 has seen a dramatic move to "NO" as the YES camp suffered a dramatic 100% loss of support.
Interviewee Miss Fiona MacEck, 73 of Ardenboshan said :
"I've taken a wee fancy to that nice Mr Darling's eyebrows and my vote is his"
Order order .... The eye(brows) have it .. the eye(brows) have it.0 -
Oh dear how desperateAndreaParma_82 said:Malcolm Chisholm MSP is retiring in Edinburgh North & Leith...because Labour today selected a new candidate: Cllr Lesley Hinds
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Where are the figures from the sub sample in the Yougov poll , guess the fact that you have not given them does not confirm the other findings Let me have a lookStuart_Dickson said:The Survation poll confirms the findings of the ComRes one: the Scottish Tories look to be in deep trouble.
Euro voting intention - Scotland
Survation
Scottish sub-sample = 97 respondents
(+/- change from Euro 2009)
SNP 48% (+19)
Lab 31% (+10)
UKIP 9% (+4)
Con 6% (-11)
LD 4% (-8)
Grn 1% (-6)
BNP 1% (-2)
ComRes
Scottish sub-sample = 188 respondents
(+/- change from Euro 2009)
SNP 44% (+15)
Lab 26% (+5)
UKIP 8% (+3)
Con 7% (-10)
LD 6% (-6)
BNP 5% (+2)
Grn 4% (-3)
Lab 36 SNP 29 Con 16 UKIP 10 LD 6
Nope !!!
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Well quite.surbiton said:
You forgot to point out that whilst England is looking for a coach amongst losers, the winning team had an Englishman as the coach.JackW said:Sri Lanka comfortably winning the World t20:20 has the irony that only England beat them in the competition in one of the most thrilling of games.
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Oh right. Because he should follow David Cameron's astute tactical manouvers? Like his decision to back Maria Miller to the hilt? Perhaps he should have Cameron's wise planning, like an immigration target that we need to hit our higher education sector to attempt, but still fails because the measure is so badly designed.DavidL said:
Sorry Socrates but some things are barely worth discussing and the leadership qualities of a man who thought it was a good idea to have a bye election in one of the safest seats in the country to try and prove a point and then found himself out manouvred when the others simply refused to play is one of them.
Davies had been a pain ever since he lost to Cameron and this is just yet another example. Such indiscipline and inability to think ahead more than a few minutes at a time is why he would have been a disastrous leader.
Or maybe Cameron's long term thinking? Such as saying we'd have a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty, and then not downplaying expectations about it until the thing actually passed, as could have been predicted for months? Or remedying the EU issue with a claim of repatriation that is clearly never going to work out? Or cutting the UK's military just as Russia is getting back on its feet as an imperialist power, with invasions to potential NATO candidates.
Davis' decision to run for a by-election over civil liberties probably was a mistake, but the man was clearly tearing his hair out how the supposed "liberal Conservative" he was serving under turned out to be a Blair-style authoritarian. Cameron mocked those that care about individual freedom while supporting the shadow areas of government being able to access the content of our private conversations without a warrant. When you have a PM that is so committed to government power over individual privacy, it's hard to know what you can honestly do.
Perhaps people would not need to be such a "pain" to the leadership, if Cameron wasn't making such disastrous issues on the EU, on civil liberties, on defence, etc.0 -
I always knew that there was something peculiar about you JackW, but now you have completely flipped your lid.JackW said:The Survation Aberdeenshire sub sample of 1 has seen a dramatic move to "NO" as the YES camp suffered a dramatic 100% loss of support.
Interviewee Miss Fiona MacEck, 73 of Ardenboshan said :
"I've taken a wee fancy to that nice Mr Darling's eyebrows and my vote is his"
Order order .... The eye(brows) have it .. the eye(brows) have it.
As a jacobean spoof it falls flat on it's back. Get up off your arse and sniff the winds of change.
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No need for conspiracy theories Mark. Unlike you I am not an obsessive. I was unaware that there was a YouGov Euro poll out.MarkSenior said:
Where are the figures from the sub sample in the Yougov poll , guess the fact that you have not given them does not confirm the other findings Let me have a lookStuart_Dickson said:The Survation poll confirms the findings of the ComRes one: the Scottish Tories look to be in deep trouble.
Euro voting intention - Scotland
Survation
Scottish sub-sample = 97 respondents
(+/- change from Euro 2009)
SNP 48% (+19)
Lab 31% (+10)
UKIP 9% (+4)
Con 6% (-11)
LD 4% (-8)
Grn 1% (-6)
BNP 1% (-2)
ComRes
Scottish sub-sample = 188 respondents
(+/- change from Euro 2009)
SNP 44% (+15)
Lab 26% (+5)
UKIP 8% (+3)
Con 7% (-10)
LD 6% (-6)
BNP 5% (+2)
Grn 4% (-3)
Lab 36 SNP 29 Con 16 UKIP 10 LD 6
Nope !!!
LD scores of 6, 4 and 6. Oh dear.0 -
O/T. I notice the Hungarians have managed to almost halve the number of MPs in parliament under their new electoral arrangements...
Just about the correct size now, according to Taagepera's Rule.0 -
Hinds would fit in well with the rest of the clowns on the Labour benches. But without Chisholm's personal charm and personal vote it is doubtful she will ever get there.malcolmg said:
Oh dear how desperateAndreaParma_82 said:Malcolm Chisholm MSP is retiring in Edinburgh North & Leith...because Labour today selected a new candidate: Cllr Lesley Hinds
Chisholm looked like a giant because he was surrounded by dwarves.0 -
If you expect us to believe that you are deluded .Stuart_Dickson said:
No need for conspiracy theories Mark. Unlike you I am not an obsessive. I was unaware that there was a YouGov Euro poll out.MarkSenior said:
Where are the figures from the sub sample in the Yougov poll , guess the fact that you have not given them does not confirm the other findings Let me have a lookStuart_Dickson said:The Survation poll confirms the findings of the ComRes one: the Scottish Tories look to be in deep trouble.
Euro voting intention - Scotland
Survation
Scottish sub-sample = 97 respondents
(+/- change from Euro 2009)
SNP 48% (+19)
Lab 31% (+10)
UKIP 9% (+4)
Con 6% (-11)
LD 4% (-8)
Grn 1% (-6)
BNP 1% (-2)
ComRes
Scottish sub-sample = 188 respondents
(+/- change from Euro 2009)
SNP 44% (+15)
Lab 26% (+5)
UKIP 8% (+3)
Con 7% (-10)
LD 6% (-6)
BNP 5% (+2)
Grn 4% (-3)
Lab 36 SNP 29 Con 16 UKIP 10 LD 6
Nope !!!
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Is that the royal "us" Mark? The delusion is entirely yours.MarkSenior said:
If you expect us to believe that you are deluded .Stuart_Dickson said:
No need for conspiracy theories Mark. Unlike you I am not an obsessive. I was unaware that there was a YouGov Euro poll out.MarkSenior said:
Where are the figures from the sub sample in the Yougov poll , guess the fact that you have not given them does not confirm the other findings Let me have a lookStuart_Dickson said:The Survation poll confirms the findings of the ComRes one: the Scottish Tories look to be in deep trouble.
Euro voting intention - Scotland
Survation
Scottish sub-sample = 97 respondents
(+/- change from Euro 2009)
SNP 48% (+19)
Lab 31% (+10)
UKIP 9% (+4)
Con 6% (-11)
LD 4% (-8)
Grn 1% (-6)
BNP 1% (-2)
ComRes
Scottish sub-sample = 188 respondents
(+/- change from Euro 2009)
SNP 44% (+15)
Lab 26% (+5)
UKIP 8% (+3)
Con 7% (-10)
LD 6% (-6)
BNP 5% (+2)
Grn 4% (-3)
Lab 36 SNP 29 Con 16 UKIP 10 LD 6
Nope !!!
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Yes, but that is profoundly unlikely.No_Offence_Alan said:
So what's that - 4 SNP MEPs, 2 LAB?Stuart_Dickson said:The Survation poll confirms the findings of the ComRes one: the Scottish Tories look to be in deep trouble.
Euro voting intention - Scotland
Survation
Scottish sub-sample = 97 respondents
(+/- change from Euro 2009)
SNP 48% (+19)
Lab 31% (+10)
UKIP 9% (+4)
Con 6% (-11)
LD 4% (-8)
Grn 1% (-6)
BNP 1% (-2)
ComRes
Scottish sub-sample = 188 respondents
(+/- change from Euro 2009)
SNP 44% (+15)
Lab 26% (+5)
UKIP 8% (+3)
Con 7% (-10)
LD 6% (-6)
BNP 5% (+2)
Grn 4% (-3)
My best guess a few months ago was:
Lab 3 MEPs (+1)
SNP 2 MEPs (n/c)
Con 1 MEP (n/c)
LD 0 MEPS (-1)
However, I am now beginning to contemplate the possibility of Struan Stevenson MEP (Con) being in serious trouble. If you look at the artithmetic UKIP just might manage it.
The other uncertainty is whether LAB or SNP will take the LD seat. I was resigned to LAB getting it, but recent polling (by recent I mean last couple of months) has led me to consider reviewing that call.0 -
Hungary
FPTP (53% of the seats)
D'Hondt [closed list, 5% threshold; parallel, not compensatory] (47% of the seats)
There's also (ethnic) Minority Lists, where even if the list fails the threshold its top candidate can sit in Parliament to speak, but not vote.0 -
SeanT said:
Re indyref, it should be remembered that NO and BT still have an ace to play.
If the polls narrow very seriously - or YES takes the lead - then I reckon the three Westminster parties will come up with some dramatic offer of Devomax.
Which is what Cameron should've done in the first place, the halfwit that he is.
John Reid would have been in his element. There was a man who detested the campaign for self-government with every fibre of his body. Darling just looks like a fish out of water. He clearly hates his job.Theuniondivvie said:
The main problem is if you're going to run a negative campaign you really need someone who relishes it (John Reid springs to mind). Darling's USP was calm, sensible dignity; he's trashed that and he knows it, which adds to his evident discomfiture.Stuart_Dickson said:
Darling is looking increasingly shaken. I'm surprised. I was truly concerned when Cameron first appointed him. Now it looks like a very poor choice, and it is far too late to find a new placeman.0 -
My own view is that Cameron's leadership has been terminal for the Conservatives, and that 2015 will be their last hurrah.Socrates said:
Oh right. Because he should follow David Cameron's astute tactical manouvers? Like his decision to back Maria Miller to the hilt? Perhaps he should have Cameron's wise planning, like an immigration target that we need to hit our higher education sector to attempt, but still fails because the measure is so badly designed.DavidL said:
Sorry Socrates but some things are barely worth discussing and the leadership qualities of a man who thought it was a good idea to have a bye election in one of the safest seats in the country to try and prove a point and then found himself out manouvred when the others simply refused to play is one of them.
Davies had been a pain ever since he lost to Cameron and this is just yet another example. Such indiscipline and inability to think ahead more than a few minutes at a time is why he would have been a disastrous leader.
Or maybe Cameron's long term thinking? Such as saying we'd have a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty, and then not downplaying expectations about it until the thing actually passed, as could have been predicted for months? Or remedying the EU issue with a claim of repatriation that is clearly never going to work out? Or cutting the UK's military just as Russia is getting back on its feet as an imperialist power, with invasions to potential NATO candidates.
Davis' decision to run for a by-election over civil liberties probably was a mistake, but the man was clearly tearing his hair out how the supposed "liberal Conservative" he was serving under turned out to be a Blair-style authoritarian. Cameron mocked those that care about individual freedom while supporting the shadow areas of government being able to access the content of our private conversations without a warrant. When you have a PM that is so committed to government power over individual privacy, it's hard to know what you can honestly do.
Perhaps people would not need to be such a "pain" to the leadership, if Cameron wasn't making such disastrous issues on the EU, on civil liberties, on defence, etc.0 -
The averages have been calculated wrongly in the thread header - average Lab lead for the week is 4.8, not 5.2.0
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Off-topic:
Rory Stewart's proggie on Northumberland on BBC2 atm is absolutely fascinating, and rather well shot: lots of bleak hillsides and walking through mist. Shame I missed the first one last week.0 -
I've been noted as many things but never "jacobean"MikeK said:
I always knew that there was something peculiar about you JackW, but now you have completely flipped your lid.JackW said:The Survation Aberdeenshire sub sample of 1 has seen a dramatic move to "NO" as the YES camp suffered a dramatic 100% loss of support.
Interviewee Miss Fiona MacEck, 73 of Ardenboshan said :
"I've taken a wee fancy to that nice Mr Darling's eyebrows and my vote is his"
Order order .... The eye(brows) have it .. the eye(brows) have it.
As a jacobean spoof it falls flat on it's back. Get up off your arse and sniff the winds of change.
Do you infer :
Jacobean theatre - A drama queen ? .... Well possibly
Jacobean architecture ? .... Sturdy, robust and classical ? ..... Quenby Hall, thank you
Jacobean banquet ? .... Pass a suckling pig ....
Jacobean literature ? .... Many have said it.
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Interesting programme on Sir Keith Joseph coming up tomorrow...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-268778690 -
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Realistically, only ifStuart_Dickson said:
My best guess a few months ago was:
Lab 3 MEPs (+1)
SNP 2 MEPs (n/c)
Con 1 MEP (n/c)
LD 0 MEPS (-1)
However, I am now beginning to contemplate the possibility of Struan Stevenson MEP (Con) being in serious trouble. If you look at the artithmetic UKIP just might manage it.
i) INT(SNP/CON) + INT(LAB/CON) >=6, or
ii) The Tories drop to 4th place, and INT(SNP/CON) + INT(LAB/CON) >=5
Neither of which seems likely...
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0
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Agree it is unlikely, but I am mulling over the possibility.RodCrosby said:
Realistically, only ifStuart_Dickson said:
My best guess a few months ago was:
Lab 3 MEPs (+1)
SNP 2 MEPs (n/c)
Con 1 MEP (n/c)
LD 0 MEPS (-1)
However, I am now beginning to contemplate the possibility of Struan Stevenson MEP (Con) being in serious trouble. If you look at the artithmetic UKIP just might manage it.
i) INT(SNP/CON) + INT(LAB/CON) >=6, or
ii) The Tories drop to 4th place, and INT(SNP/CON) + INT(LAB/CON) >=5
Neither of which seems likely...0 -
Interesting question. I wonder how many Scots will view the Euros as a practice vote for the Indy Ref?0
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Sky News - Norwich sack their manager Chris Hughton0
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No. I recall correctly. And I have quoted May 1 back at you on a number of occasions, which you left unchallenged.RodCrosby said:
You recall wrong.BobaFett said:
I verified this at the time as I recall. It was May 1.
But that's very interesting, that you are getting bearish.
;-)
But there's no shame in changing your mind.
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Michael Weiss @michaeldweiss
Tomorrow the Russian Foreign Ministry will issue a statement about "dangerous" developments and Kyiv's loss of control over eastern regions
Anne Applebaum @anneapplebaum
Some russian tanks on ukrainian border already painted with 'peacekeeping' slogans. How much longer until the 'humanitarian intervention'
Here we go again.
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Prove him wrong! Re post the verification!BobaFett said:
No. I recall correctly. And I have quoted May 1 back at you on a number of occasions, which you left unchallenged.RodCrosby said:
You recall wrong.BobaFett said:
I verified this at the time as I recall. It was May 1.
But that's very interesting, that you are getting bearish.
;-)
But there's no shame in changing your mind.0 -
I must have been otherwise engaged [I'll show you her pic if you like!], and not noticed your witterings....BobaFett said:
No. I recall correctly. And I have quoted May 1 back at you on a number of occasions, which you left unchallenged.RodCrosby said:
You recall wrong.
;-)
But there's no shame in changing your mind.
I definitely recall someone over a month ago saying "May 1st", and I instantly corrected them.0 -
It is certainly a trial run for the GOTV teams. Watch and learn.RodCrosby said:Interesting question. I wonder how many Scots will view the Euros as a practice vote for the Indy Ref?
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You are just delaying the inevitable, which gives you longer to make a better excuse up. Or you could do an Avery and predict another date after a few weeks and hope no one notices.RodCrosby said:
I must have been otherwise engaged [I'll show you her pic if you like!], and not noticed your witterings....BobaFett said:
No. I recall correctly. And I have quoted May 1 back at you on a number of occasions, which you left unchallenged.RodCrosby said:
You recall wrong.
;-)
But there's no shame in changing your mind.
I definitely recall someone over a month ago saying "May 1st", and I instantly corrected them.0 -
I would love to but it would require me to go through hundreds of posts. Life's too short.isam said:
Prove him wrong! Re post the verification!BobaFett said:
No. I recall correctly. And I have quoted May 1 back at you on a number of occasions, which you left unchallenged.RodCrosby said:
You recall wrong.BobaFett said:
I verified this at the time as I recall. It was May 1.
But that's very interesting, that you are getting bearish.
;-)
But there's no shame in changing your mind.
0 -
Looks like a reverse ferret to me, but I'm not going to trawl through hundreds of posts to prove it.RodCrosby said:
I must have been otherwise engaged [I'll show you her pic if you like!], and not noticed your witterings....BobaFett said:
No. I recall correctly. And I have quoted May 1 back at you on a number of occasions, which you left unchallenged.RodCrosby said:
You recall wrong.
;-)
But there's no shame in changing your mind.
I definitely recall someone over a month ago saying "May 1st", and I instantly corrected them.0 -
The Tory membership is certainly old. Even the younger Tories lack vim. This Saturday UKIP and Labour were out. Can't remember the last time I saw a blue rosette working at it.SeanT said:
One of my political friends who is actually a politician thinks roughly the same. He reckons the Tory membership is now so old and endangered they won't have anyone to work for them by 2020. And he knows whereof he speaks (and he's neither Tory nor Labour).Jonathan said:
Why do you say terminal? IMO you would not be in power without him. And what do you mean by last hurrah? A weak win?Sean_F said:My own view is that Cameron's leadership has been terminal for the Conservatives, and that 2015 will be their last hurrah.
I can see UKIP and the Tories forming an electoral pact for 2020 (and winning, esp if Scotland goes): by then the Tories won't have much choice.
Brexit by 2023? Could very easily happen.
Was reflecting on Cameron's leadership. Whilst relatively charismatic, his leadership has turned out to be insipid and vanilla. After four years, I have absolutely no idea where he wants to take the country.
EdM, whilst still half-way to becoming a Marmite politician, seems at least to have some direction.
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Avery's Prediction Power
"Sir Roderick has it right that May is crossover month but we may get Basil with a long-sight sniper shot before May."
Source: http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/03/22/tories-jump-4-ukip-and-lds-each-drop-3-in-post-budget-survation-poll-for-mail-on-sunday/
RodCrosby's Manly Intuition
"No, that's just my hunch. And to be clear, I'm predicting a Tory lead in some poll by May. Then it'll be nip-and-tuck until about January 2015. Then the Tories will pull away decisively..."
Source: http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/02/24/based-on-current-polls-the-betting-markets-are-understating-labours-chances-of-an-overall-majority/
Watch out for post hoc edits0 -
The stock markets hated the Crimean crisis. I wonder if an Eastern Ukraine crisis might cause more serious and longer term problems?SeanT said:
You can hardly blame Putin. The entire western response to his Crimean Anschluss was to flick two tiny ink pellets in his general direction, then hide under the desk.Tykejohnno said:
Michael Weiss @michaeldweiss
Tomorrow the Russian Foreign Ministry will issue a statement about "dangerous" developments and Kyiv's loss of control over eastern regions
Anne Applebaum @anneapplebaum
Some russian tanks on ukrainian border already painted with 'peacekeeping' slogans. How much longer until the 'humanitarian intervention'
Here we go again.
He must think he is on a roll. I'm not sure we would respond militarily if he seized all Ukraine.
Also, the news is really boring, so I hope he does have a bash, at least at Donetsk.0 -
Alez' Alez Alez oh! :-)0
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I wonder how much more humiliation,western Ukrainians can take if Russian army crossed eastern border.SeanT said:
You can hardly blame Putin. The entire western response to his Crimean Anschluss was to flick two tiny ink pellets in his general direction, then hide under the desk.Tykejohnno said:
Michael Weiss @michaeldweiss
Tomorrow the Russian Foreign Ministry will issue a statement about "dangerous" developments and Kyiv's loss of control over eastern regions
Anne Applebaum @anneapplebaum
Some russian tanks on ukrainian border already painted with 'peacekeeping' slogans. How much longer until the 'humanitarian intervention'
Here we go again.
He must think he is on a roll. I'm not sure we would respond militarily if he seized all Ukraine.
Also, the news is really boring, so I hope he does have a bash, at least at Donetsk.
Ukraine crisis: Pro-Russian movement creeps closer to Kiev
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/ukraine-crisis-pro-russian-movement-creeps-closer-to-kiev/0 -
Avery last predicted crossover for December 2013.Freggles said:Avery's Prediction Power
"Sir Roderick has it right that May is crossover month but we may get Basil with a long-sight sniper shot before May."
Source: http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/03/22/tories-jump-4-ukip-and-lds-each-drop-3-in-post-budget-survation-poll-for-mail-on-sunday/
RodCrosby's Manly Intuition
"No, that's just my hunch. And to be clear, I'm predicting a Tory lead in some poll by May. Then it'll be nip-and-tuck until about January 2015. Then the Tories will pull away decisively..."
Source: http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/02/24/based-on-current-polls-the-betting-markets-are-understating-labours-chances-of-an-overall-majority/
Watch out for post hoc edits
-1 -
This place will be like a polling prediction battlefield come May. There will be PB predictive reputation corpses a.o.t.s.Freggles said:Avery's Prediction Power
"Sir Roderick has it right that May is crossover month but we may get Basil with a long-sight sniper shot before May."
Source: http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/03/22/tories-jump-4-ukip-and-lds-each-drop-3-in-post-budget-survation-poll-for-mail-on-sunday/
RodCrosby's Manly Intuition
"No, that's just my hunch. And to be clear, I'm predicting a Tory lead in some poll by May. Then it'll be nip-and-tuck until about January 2015. Then the Tories will pull away decisively..."
Source: http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/02/24/based-on-current-polls-the-betting-markets-are-understating-labours-chances-of-an-overall-majority/
Watch out for post hoc edits0 -
Jonathan said:
The Tory membership is certainly old. Even the younger Tories lack vim. This Saturday UKIP and Labour were out. Can't remember the last time I saw a blue rosette working at it.SeanT said:
One of my political friends who is actually a politician thinks roughly the same. He reckons the Tory membership is now so old and endangered they won't have anyone to work for them by 2020. And he knows whereof he speaks (and he's neither Tory nor Labour).Jonathan said:
Why do you say terminal? IMO you would not be in power without him. And what do you mean by last hurrah? A weak win?Sean_F said:My own view is that Cameron's leadership has been terminal for the Conservatives, and that 2015 will be their last hurrah.
I can see UKIP and the Tories forming an electoral pact for 2020 (and winning, esp if Scotland goes): by then the Tories won't have much choice.
Brexit by 2023? Could very easily happen.
Was reflecting on Cameron's leadership. Whilst relatively charismatic, his leadership has turned out to be insipid and vanilla. After four years, I have absolutely no idea where he wants to take the country.
EdM, whilst still half-way to becoming a Marmite politician, seems at least to have some direction.
I wouldn't want to be a tory in some area's,even in area's where tories hold the seat,like Norwich north.
I have a friend there who witnessed a conservative knocking on doors and been chased out of the area with the cuts on family credits he found out why later.0 -
That one in December fell just like the ones he made for April, June, August, and October. Avery predictions are the junk stock of PB.BobaFett said:
Avery last predicted crossover for December 2013.Freggles said:Avery's Prediction Power
"Sir Roderick has it right that May is crossover month but we may get Basil with a long-sight sniper shot before May."
Source: http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/03/22/tories-jump-4-ukip-and-lds-each-drop-3-in-post-budget-survation-poll-for-mail-on-sunday/
RodCrosby's Manly Intuition
"No, that's just my hunch. And to be clear, I'm predicting a Tory lead in some poll by May. Then it'll be nip-and-tuck until about January 2015. Then the Tories will pull away decisively..."
Source: http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/02/24/based-on-current-polls-the-betting-markets-are-understating-labours-chances-of-an-overall-majority/
Watch out for post hoc edits0 -
Drip. Drip. Drip.Tykejohnno said:
I wonder how much more humiliation,western Ukrainians can take if Russian army crossed eastern border.SeanT said:
You can hardly blame Putin. The entire western response to his Crimean Anschluss was to flick two tiny ink pellets in his general direction, then hide under the desk.Tykejohnno said:
Michael Weiss @michaeldweiss
Tomorrow the Russian Foreign Ministry will issue a statement about "dangerous" developments and Kyiv's loss of control over eastern regions
Anne Applebaum @anneapplebaum
Some russian tanks on ukrainian border already painted with 'peacekeeping' slogans. How much longer until the 'humanitarian intervention'
Here we go again.
He must think he is on a roll. I'm not sure we would respond militarily if he seized all Ukraine.
Also, the news is really boring, so I hope he does have a bash, at least at Donetsk.
Ukraine crisis: Pro-Russian movement creeps closer to Kiev
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/ukraine-crisis-pro-russian-movement-creeps-closer-to-kiev/0 -
Evening all. The 2nd episode of Rory the Tory's Middle Land documentary series on the Scots/English borders was excellent.
The Scots Tories will be 3rd in the Euro elections and Struan Stevenson is retiring so we will have a new young MEP.
I think it more likely the SNP rather than Labour will get the 3rd MEP replacing the LibDems as George Lyon returns to talk to his barley fields and sheep.
Jack W is not Jacobean. My house is Jacobean i.e. dating from the reign of James VI and I. Jack has Jacobite sympathies (1688-1746).
It was announced at the Tory Spring Conference that the party membership has risen. I seem to recall the number quoted for new total membership was either 170,000 or 180,000.
Now off to watch 'The Crimson Field' the new BBC1 drama series partly based on the real life exploits of Millicent, Duchess of Sutherland and her nurses who nursed on the front line and at one point found themselves behind German lines. Millie summoned the German Field Marshal and insisted her repatriate her wounded, her nurses and the German wounded too. Before the war she had known him well. She was quite a woman.0 -
As hard as that may be to believe, that is what I am saying. It's a dangerously controversial view, but I stand by it.Freggles said:
Are you implying that a Conservative who frequents this site has a tendency to be incorrect, and fail to gain knowledge from the experience?BobaFett said:
Avery last predicted crossover for December 2013.0 -
FPT
I would have preferred her to start cleansing the BBC of its child abuse culture and start the restitution to its victims.Charles said:
So you would have preferred her to try and make political capital out of some despicable actions by a dead man?Ninoinoz said:Incidentally, on writing my reply to JackW, I was reminded of why Maria Miller is such a despicable character.
When the Jimmy Savile scandal exploded into the open, the Conservative Party conference was imminent.
So, what does the DCMS minister (Maria Miller) decide to address the conference about? Gay marriage.
So, gay marriage tops endemic child abuse in the nation's lead broadcaster? Only in Cameron's warped cabinet.0 -
Richard Nabavi is a Conservative well worth listening to here, particularly if you are interested in making cash.Freggles said:
Are you implying that a Conservative who frequents this site has a tendency to be incorrect, and fail to gain knowledge from the experience?BobaFett said:
Avery last predicted crossover for December 2013.0 -
Not really very narrow. If you were born in Manchester and come to London at 18 you're not a LondonerBobaFett said:
Essex suburbs would be a stretch maybe, but wouldn't be outrageous to say they were a Londone if they lived nr a tube station I guess0 -
The Screaming Eagles also.
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