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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Tories slip back sharply in the latest PB YouGov Weekly
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Tories slip back sharply in the latest PB YouGov Weekly Average as UKIP jumps 2pc
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Surely more likely is that the Tories gained some from the budget (partially offset by Royal Mail) and then Farage gained some (mainly from the Tories) from the EU debate? I suspect the Tories would be worse off if the budget hadn't been so effective...
DYOR
4/1 on 326-350 though may be a better option.
On topic, as I said in Budget week that Labour's vote was quite constant in the 37-40 range with YG, it's only fair to say it's not going up either. I think there's a quite stable underlying position - approaching 40% simply want to get the government out and there's only one obvious way to do that; they aren't influenced by budgets, leader ratings or anything else much. The Tory challenge is to exceed that. If they can get to 41 or so, it should be possible. But is that credible?
Here is a list of some other things we don't have referendum on:
1. Whether murder should be illegal
2. Whether Chelsea is the best football team
etc etc etc
Mr. Palmer, I'm watching that game to see how people who understand the rules do things. I was horrified to see someone in the Shoutbox compare you to Ed Miliband.
F1: no spoilers, but if you're the sort who sometimes watches F1 highlights and sometimes doesn't, today is a day you definitely should.
i) Polls this far out are pants as predictors.
ii) Under FPTP, seats shift at least twice as fast as the votes do...
And can I recommend those PBers with a mathematical or programming bent check out: http://projecteuler.net/about
If you go onto YouTube, you can find a video of the most dangerous moment of the race. It's quite spectacular. I'd give Estaban a nine for style, and eight for execution. ;-)
Also, as I've said a million times, despite the delusional media wittering on about how Labour has little appeal to so-called "Middle England", the real weakspot in their support is among working-class so-called "core" Labour voters (the type who voted for them even in 2010 which has led the leadership to complacently assume they'll vote for them no matter what) than among middle-class Lib Dem defectors.
;-)
Maldonado should have the book thrown at him for that, *unless* it was a car brake issue.
Mercedes are magnificent in every way: the car is brilliant, the drivers both excellent, and the team need rewarding for letting their drivers race even to the end. Red Bull and Ferrari might have a few more supporters if they'd allowed Vettel and Schumacher's team mates do that more often.
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2014/04/bahrain-post-race-analysis.html
She has been Labour group leader (and council leader when in power) on St Helens Council for decades until last year when she was ousted by an internal rival. It seemed it was the end of an era for St Helens Labour...but we spoke too soon!
It was an AWS and the other shortlisted candidates were a Manchester Cllr and a Southwark Cllr. She won on first round
She was kept out from 2001 shortlist by NEC (to help Woodward getting the nomination). Now she gets it 13 years later.
She was born in 1947, so the likely oldest member from 2020 new intake
Euro voting intention - Scotland
Survation
Scottish sub-sample = 97 respondents
(+/- change from Euro 2009)
SNP 48% (+19)
Lab 31% (+10)
UKIP 9% (+4)
Con 6% (-11)
LD 4% (-8)
Grn 1% (-6)
BNP 1% (-2)
ComRes
Scottish sub-sample = 188 respondents
(+/- change from Euro 2009)
SNP 44% (+15)
Lab 26% (+5)
UKIP 8% (+3)
Con 7% (-10)
LD 6% (-6)
BNP 5% (+2)
Grn 4% (-3)
Joe Benton is having troubles with his reselection in Bootle.
Could that not be said about your projections ?
Remember, they have already tried, and failed, to come up with a united plan for what a 'No' result would mean. Devomax is an impossibility.
Here are the current odds for the Westminster seat:
Lab 1/20
LD 8/1
SNP 50/1
UKIP 100/1
Con 100/1
Result 2011
Lab (Malcolm Chisholm) 12,858
SNP 12,263
Con 2,928
LD 2,836
That's why it is necessary to work statistical magic on them (Fisher), substitute a better polling indicator (Lebo & Norpoth), or ignore them completely (Swingback, and Chris Prosser's local elections model)...
Interviewee Miss Fiona MacEck, 73 of Ardenboshan said :
"I've taken a wee fancy to that nice Mr Darling's eyebrows and my vote is his"
Order order .... The eye(brows) have it .. the eye(brows) have it.
Lab 36 SNP 29 Con 16 UKIP 10 LD 6
Nope !!!
Or maybe Cameron's long term thinking? Such as saying we'd have a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty, and then not downplaying expectations about it until the thing actually passed, as could have been predicted for months? Or remedying the EU issue with a claim of repatriation that is clearly never going to work out? Or cutting the UK's military just as Russia is getting back on its feet as an imperialist power, with invasions to potential NATO candidates.
Davis' decision to run for a by-election over civil liberties probably was a mistake, but the man was clearly tearing his hair out how the supposed "liberal Conservative" he was serving under turned out to be a Blair-style authoritarian. Cameron mocked those that care about individual freedom while supporting the shadow areas of government being able to access the content of our private conversations without a warrant. When you have a PM that is so committed to government power over individual privacy, it's hard to know what you can honestly do.
Perhaps people would not need to be such a "pain" to the leadership, if Cameron wasn't making such disastrous issues on the EU, on civil liberties, on defence, etc.
As a jacobean spoof it falls flat on it's back. Get up off your arse and sniff the winds of change.
LD scores of 6, 4 and 6. Oh dear.
Just about the correct size now, according to Taagepera's Rule.
Chisholm looked like a giant because he was surrounded by dwarves.
My best guess a few months ago was:
Lab 3 MEPs (+1)
SNP 2 MEPs (n/c)
Con 1 MEP (n/c)
LD 0 MEPS (-1)
However, I am now beginning to contemplate the possibility of Struan Stevenson MEP (Con) being in serious trouble. If you look at the artithmetic UKIP just might manage it.
The other uncertainty is whether LAB or SNP will take the LD seat. I was resigned to LAB getting it, but recent polling (by recent I mean last couple of months) has led me to consider reviewing that call.
FPTP (53% of the seats)
D'Hondt [closed list, 5% threshold; parallel, not compensatory] (47% of the seats)
There's also (ethnic) Minority Lists, where even if the list fails the threshold its top candidate can sit in Parliament to speak, but not vote.
But that's very interesting, that you are getting bearish.
Rory Stewart's proggie on Northumberland on BBC2 atm is absolutely fascinating, and rather well shot: lots of bleak hillsides and walking through mist. Shame I missed the first one last week.
;-)
Do you infer :
Jacobean theatre - A drama queen ? .... Well possibly
Jacobean architecture ? .... Sturdy, robust and classical ? ..... Quenby Hall, thank you
Jacobean banquet ? .... Pass a suckling pig ....
Jacobean literature ? .... Many have said it.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-26877869
i) INT(SNP/CON) + INT(LAB/CON) >=6, or
ii) The Tories drop to 4th place, and INT(SNP/CON) + INT(LAB/CON) >=5
Neither of which seems likely...
But there's no shame in changing your mind.
Michael Weiss @michaeldweiss
Tomorrow the Russian Foreign Ministry will issue a statement about "dangerous" developments and Kyiv's loss of control over eastern regions
Anne Applebaum @anneapplebaum
Some russian tanks on ukrainian border already painted with 'peacekeeping' slogans. How much longer until the 'humanitarian intervention'
Here we go again.
I definitely recall someone over a month ago saying "May 1st", and I instantly corrected them.
Was reflecting on Cameron's leadership. Whilst relatively charismatic, his leadership has turned out to be insipid and vanilla. After four years, I have absolutely no idea where he wants to take the country.
EdM, whilst still half-way to becoming a Marmite politician, seems at least to have some direction.
What do you consider to qualify someone as a Londoner?
"Sir Roderick has it right that May is crossover month but we may get Basil with a long-sight sniper shot before May."
Source: http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/03/22/tories-jump-4-ukip-and-lds-each-drop-3-in-post-budget-survation-poll-for-mail-on-sunday/
RodCrosby's Manly Intuition
"No, that's just my hunch. And to be clear, I'm predicting a Tory lead in some poll by May. Then it'll be nip-and-tuck until about January 2015. Then the Tories will pull away decisively..."
Source: http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/02/24/based-on-current-polls-the-betting-markets-are-understating-labours-chances-of-an-overall-majority/
Watch out for post hoc edits
Ukraine crisis: Pro-Russian movement creeps closer to Kiev
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/ukraine-crisis-pro-russian-movement-creeps-closer-to-kiev/
The Scots Tories will be 3rd in the Euro elections and Struan Stevenson is retiring so we will have a new young MEP.
I think it more likely the SNP rather than Labour will get the 3rd MEP replacing the LibDems as George Lyon returns to talk to his barley fields and sheep.
Jack W is not Jacobean. My house is Jacobean i.e. dating from the reign of James VI and I. Jack has Jacobite sympathies (1688-1746).
It was announced at the Tory Spring Conference that the party membership has risen. I seem to recall the number quoted for new total membership was either 170,000 or 180,000.
Now off to watch 'The Crimson Field' the new BBC1 drama series partly based on the real life exploits of Millicent, Duchess of Sutherland and her nurses who nursed on the front line and at one point found themselves behind German lines. Millie summoned the German Field Marshal and insisted her repatriate her wounded, her nurses and the German wounded too. Before the war she had known him well. She was quite a woman.
Essex suburbs would be a stretch maybe, but wouldn't be outrageous to say they were a Londone if they lived nr a tube station I guess